TM MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2012 FIRST QUARTER 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 Market Snapshot 4 Neighborhood Price Trends Harlem 9 Upper West Side 10 Upper East Side 11 Midtown West 12 Midtown East 13 Murray Hill 14 Chelsea 15 Gramercy Park 16 Greenwich Village 17 East Village 18 SoHo 19 Lower East Side 20 TriBeCa 21 Financial District 22 Battery Park City 23 The Report Explained 24 2
INTRODUCTION MNS is proud to present the First Quarter 2012 edition of our New Development Market Report TM. New Development Sales data, defined as such Arms-Length first offering transactions where the seller is considered a Sponsor, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the First Quarter 2012 (01/01/12 03/31/12). All data summarized is on a median basis. This report also includes quarterly tracking graphs over a nine-quarter look back and will continue to track the trends going forward. 3
MARKET SNAPSHOT Year-Over-Year Median down 1% Quarter-Over-Quarter Median down 6% Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price down 38% Quarter-Over-Quarter Median Sales Price down 33% Manhattan New Development Sales Inventory - down 35 % from last quarter. Total New Development Sales Volume down 44% to $375M from $670M in 4Q11 Neighborhood with the Most New Dev Sales: Gramercy (21% of Manhattan New Development Sales) Largest Quarterly Up-Swing: Upper East Side : $1,427/SF from $1,377/SF Sales Price: $2.71M from $1.49M Largest Quarterly Down-Swing: Murray Hill : $1,267 from $1,596 Sales Price: $1.17M from $1.96M Highest New Development Sale: Laureate - 2150 Broadway #11ABC - $17,066,000 Highest New Development Sale : 77 Reade St - PHD - $3,972 MARKET SUMMARY: Although pricing from last quarter is down 33%, it is evident from price per square foot numbers that the market value is still holding steady. What happened this quarter is a major inventory shift in new development sales in Manhattan. A median price of $990K begs the question not of why, but of what. Last quarter, 37% of the inventory sold was studios and one-bedrooms and this quarter the smaller units accounted for 50% of the inventory. This shift brought median pricing down under $1M from $1.5M last quarter, but a median price per foot of $1,220 (2011 average was $1,235/SF) shows that value is steady, and yet 10% higher than 2010 average of /SF. Year-over-year Manhattan new development condominium sales numbers are down 1% (versus up 14% last quarter) on a price per square foot basis ($1,220/SF this quarter versus $1,236/SF in 1Q11). Sales prices are down 38% ($990K this quarter versus just under $1.59M in 1Q11). 4
MARKET SNAPSHOT MARKET UP-SWINGS: Due to one $9M sale in the 8-Unit boutique condo at 350 West Broadway, SoHo s off the chart pricing this quarter might be what the NYTimes referred to as a Blip. The real upswings can be found downtown, where the condo-hotel market dominated FiDi this quarter and pushed the median price per square foot up to $1,274/ SF from $922/SF last quarter. 60% of the market downtown sales came from Setai, W, and The Hyatt. Midtown West, which includes the midtown Setai on 5th Ave with a median sales price of $1,730/SF, also had a great showing from 13 closings at The Sheffield at a median sales price of $1,610/SF. The only new development product on Upper East Side was from 1212 Fifth Ave, and the duplexes at 949 Park Ave. However, strong demand in the long established neighborhood increased its year-over-year median price per square foot 7% to $1,427/SF and its median sales price to $2.7M. MARKET DOWN-SWINGS: Where the market has fallen on both a median sales price and median sales price per square foot basis this quarter is Harlem. The median sales price was the lowest Harlem has seen since 1Q10; $505K, down 3% from last quarter s $520K, and down 15% from the 3Q11 peak of $599K. Although the median price per foot is hovering around $600/SF, it s just 6% higher than the 2 year low. Without top sales from 29th Park Madison, Murray Hill s median price per square foot landed back down to a more normal $1,267/SF from last quarter s $1,596/SF, though still 19% higher than its recession pricing of /SF. INVENTORY ANALYSIS: Manhattan new development sales inventory numbers are down 35% from last quarter, and this quarter s total sales volume was just $375M, almost cutting the volume in half from last quarter. Last quarter, 20% of new development sales were $3M-$4M apartments on the Upper West Side. This quarter, 20% of new development sales were in Gramercy at the condo One48 with a median price of $750K. In addition, 15% of new development sales were in Harlem so this dramatic shift in inventory is what caused the 33% drop in median sales price. In tracking the neighborhoods that sold the most amount of 4Q11 new development inventory per unit size: - Gramercy (63%) One Bedrooms - Harlem (20%) Two Bedrooms - Harlem (23%) Three Bedrooms (1500 +) - Upper West Side (36%) 5
MARKET SNAPSHOT 1Q12 MEDIAN BY NEIGHBORHOOD $3,750 $3,250 $2,750 $2,250 $1,750 $1,250 $750 $250 Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa FiDi BPC 1Q12 MEDIAN SALES BY NEIGHBORHOOD $10,700,000 $9,200,000 $7,700,000 $6,200,000 $4,700,000 $3,200,000 $1,700,000 $200,000 Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa FiDi BPC 6
MARKET SNAPSHOT % OF TOTAL NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES BOROUGH-WIDE 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa FiDi BPC 1Q12 MONTHLY ABSORPTION RATE 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa FiDi BPC 7
MARKET SNAPSHOT 1Q12 UNIT MIX OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES 3Q11 UNIT MIX OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES 1Q12 Unit Mix of New Devel 27% 23% 19% 31% 3 Beds MANHATTAN MANHATTAN QUARTERLY QUARTERLY TRACKING TRACKING All Manhattan Median $2,400,000 $1,900,000,000,000 $400,000 8
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS HARLEM HARLEM BY UNIT SIZE ($599/SF Median) $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 % OF SALES WITHIN HARLEM 10% 10% 38% 42% HARLEM QUARTERLY TRACKING $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 Median $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 9
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS UPPER WEST SIDE $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 UPPER WEST SIDE BY UNIT SIZE ($1,681/SF Median) ($1,681/SF Median) % OF SALES WITHIN UPPER WEST SIDE 62% 18% UPPER WEST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,800 $1,600 Median $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $500,000 10
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS UPPER EAST SIDE UPPER EAST SIDE BY UNIT SIZE ($1,427/SF Median) $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $700 $500 % OF SALES WITHIN UPPER EAST SIDE 64% 36% 0% UPPER EAST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,500 Median $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $500,000 11
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS MIDTOWN WEST $1,800 $1,600 MIDTOWN WEST BY UNIT SIZE ($1,562/SF Median) ($1,562/SF Median) $600 4% % OF SALES WITHIN MIDTOWN WEST 20% 44% 22% MIDTOWN WEST QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,700 $1,500 $700 Median $2,300,000 $2,050,000 $1,800,000 $1,550,000,000 $1,050,000,000 12
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN EAST BY UNIT SIZE ($1,009/SF Median) $1,600 $600 $600 $400 $400 $200 0% % OF SALES WITHIN MIDTOWN EAST 20% 20% 60% MIDTOWN EAST QUARTERLY TRACKING Median $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,500,000 $1,250,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 13
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS MURRAY HILL MURRAY HILL BY UNIT SIZE ($1,267/SF Median) $1,800 $1,600 $600 % OF SALES WITHIN MURRAY HILL 25% 13% 13% 49% MURRAY HILL QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,700 $1,500 $700 Median $1,900,000,000,000 $400,000 14
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS CHELSEA CHELSEA BY UNIT SIZE ($1,250/SF Median) $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $700 $500 $600 % OF SALES WITHIN CHELSEA 0% 38% 25% 37% CHELSEA QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,500 Median $2,700,000 $2,200,000 $1,700,000,000 $700,000 15
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS GRAMERCY PARK GRAMERCY PARK BY UNIT SIZE ($1,203/SF Median) $1,600 $600 % OF SALES WITHIN GRAMERCY PARK 28% 13% 59% GRAMERCY PARK QUARTERLY TRACKING $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 Median $2,250,000 $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,500,000 $1,250,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 16
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS GREENWICH VILLAGE GREENWICH VILLAGE BY UNIT SIZE ($1,803/SF Median) $2,700 $2,200 $1,700 $700 $200 % OF SALES WITHIN GREENWICH VILLAGE 60% 20% 20% 0% GREENWICH VILLAGE QUARTERLY TRACKING $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 Median $7,250,000 $6,250,000 $5,250,000 $4,250,000 $3,250,000 $2,250,000 $1,250,000 17
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS EAST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE BY UNIT SIZE ($702/SF Median) $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 % OF SALES WITHIN EAST VILLAGE 0% 100% EAST VILLAGE QUARTERLY TRACKING $700 $600 Median $1,900,000,000,000 $400,000 18
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS SOHO SOHO BY UNIT SIZE ($3,193/SF Median) $3,600 $3,100 $2,600 $2,100 $1,600 $600 % OF SALES WITHIN SOHO 0% 100% SOHO QUARTERLY TRACKING $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 Median $11,000,000 $9,000,000 $7,000,000 $5,000,000 $3,000,000,000 19
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS LOWER EAST SIDE LOWER EAST SIDE BY UNIT SIZE ($1,140/SF Median) $1,500 $700 $500 % OF SALES WITHIN LOWER EAST SIDE 17% 17% 33% 33% LOWER EAST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING Median $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,500,000 $1,250,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 20
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS TRIBECA TRIBECA BY UNIT SIZE ($1,742/SF Median) $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $700 % OF SALES WITHIN TRIBECA 0% 78% 17% 0% TRIBECA QUARTERLY TRACKING $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 Median $6,500,000 $5,500,000 $4,500,000 $3,500,000 $2,500,000 $1,500,000 $500,000 21
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS FINANCIAL DISTRICT FINANCIAL DISTRICT BY UNIT SIZE ($1,274/SF Median) $1,800 $1,600 $600 $400 % OF SALES WITHIN FINANCIAL DISTRICT 0% 56% 11% 33% FINANCIAL DISTRICT QUARTERLY TRACKING $600 Median $1,500,000,000,000,000 $700,000 $500,000 22
NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS BATTERY PARK CITY BATTERY PARK CITY BY UNIT SIZE ($881/SF Median) $600 $400 % OF SALES WITHIN BATTERY PARK CITY 0% 40% 60% BATTERY PARK CITY QUARTERLY TRACKING $700 Median $2,400,000 $1,900,000,000,000 $400,000 23
THE REPORT EXPLAINED Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report are all cooperative sales. Unit types such as studios, one-bedrooms, and two-bedroom units are grouped by square footage ranges. are under 700 square feet, one-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and twobedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500 square feet to 5,500 square feet. Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood, MNS New Development Report TM tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. MNS offers a unique insight into the new development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood inventory comparisons, and absorption rates. Can t find what you re looking for? Ask MNS for more information at www.mns.com. CONTACT US NOW: 212.475.9000 Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the Manhattan New Development Report with a link back to its original location (http://www.mns.com/manhattan_new_dev_report). 24