Green Belts and Housing Supply Forum, Nov 23, 2014, @ CityU Short, Medium and Long Term Demand and Supply of Housing in Hong Kong 短中長期香港樓宇供需 Edward Yiu 姚松炎 Associate Director, IOFC 未來城市研究所副所長 Associate Professor, CUHK 中文大學副教授 1
Summary No Housing Insufficiency A Sustainable Model Demand <> Needs Supply <> Completion Long Term No. of Households Drops 2
Supply > Demand! Sufficient!? Year Total No. of Housing Units Total No. of Households Housing Stock Households 1983 1,111,000 1,334,300-223,300 1993 1,696,000 1,677,700 +18,300 2003 2,332,000 2,114,000 +218,000 2013 2,616,000 2,404,800 +211,200 (8%) 2021* 2,936,000 2,554,000 +382,000 (13%) 2031* 3,336,000 2,720,300 +615,700 (18%) 2041* 3,736,000 2,823,000 +913,000 (24%) 40,000 pa 10,000 pa
Why Insufficient? Population Related Natural Pop Growth Visitors (68,000 units) Expatriates / Students (10,000?) Type Est. Qty MR 100,000 Visitors 68,000 Investment Need Rehousing Need Insufficiency Vacancy (46,000 units) & Others Mobile Residents (100,000 units) Vacancy 46,000 Ex/S 10,000 Total 224,000 S - D 211,200 4
Long Term Housing Strategy 2013 Household Net Increase 10-year Ave Min Max 294,000 271,950 316,050 Re-housing 46,300 Poor Living Conditions 74,900 Others 34,500 27,000 42,000 Total 449,700 420,150 479,250 Vacant Units 20,300 19,850 20,750 Adjusted Demand 470,000 440,000 500,000
Population and Households HK Year Population No. of Households NoH Change/Yr 1991 5,752,000 1,601,900 NoH yoy % 2001 2011 2021* 2031* 2041* 6,714,300 2,054,500 45,260 2.8% 7,071,600 2,359,300 30,480 1.5% LTHS=29,400 7,662,000 2,554,000 19,470 0.8% 8,160,900 2,720,300 16,630 0.7% 8,469,000 2,823,000 10,270 0.4% Sharp Decrease of NoH yoy
7 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 yoy_noh No. of Households Change LTHS=1.2%
Housing Needs 120,000 units backlog 2014-2017 30,000 pa +5,000 pa Short Term Medium Term 2018-2024 20,000 pa +5,000 pa 2025-2041 10,000 pa +5,000 pa Long Term Housing Demand <> Needs 8
Government s Mindset Economic Growth Working Population Growth Housing Demand Growth Land Demand Growth 500,000 pers / decade 170,000 units backlog + 300,000 units / decade 350 ha / decade 9
A Ponzi Demography (A Population Bubble) Former United Nations demographer Joseph Chamie says, it is a Ponzi demography to achieve economic growth by increasing population. The bubble would eventually burst when population growth stalls, resulting in high debts and environmental degradation. William Pesek (2013) Singapore s Population Bubble 10
Sustainable Model Land and Housing Policies Livability and Sustainability 11
Livability v. Density HK: Very high density, but medium livability http://www.citylab.com/work/2013/02/density-vs-livability-worlds-biggest-cities/4511/ 12
Elasticity of Housing Demand Housing Price Affects No. of Marriage? 13
No. of Marriage Drops 8% in 2013 14
Housing Price v. Fertility [1] Li, P. & Xu, J.(2012) Housing price and fertility rate, CEJ 5, 97. [2] Yi,J. & Zhang, J. (2010) House Price on Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong, EI 48, 635. http://www.devilsdictionaries.com/blog/housing-prices-and-fertility-rates 15
Housing Price v. Fertility Hong Kong 1981 2012 2041 Declining fertility rate Number of live births per woman 1.9 1.3 1.2 Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026127/oecdeducational-report-pisa-fever-is-causing-east-asias-demographic-collapse/ 16
Housing Price v. Fertility 17
Housing Demand (1 st Hand) 40,000 1st hand Sold Out Units (TV1) 35,000 30,000 25,000 Cumulative Sellable Units Approved to sell Units 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 18 Demand Range from 11,000 25,000 units pa
Housing Completion 60000 Total Subsidized Housing Completion 50000 Private Housing Completion Total Housing Supply 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* Housing Completion <> Housing Supply 2015-16* 2016-17* 19
Implications on Land Supply Case Housing Units Required Land Required (ha) Baseline Case 35,000 pa 35 pa Site area = 100,000 sf, pr = 5, sc = 20% Each floor area of each block = 4,000sf 500 sf / unit 5 blocks 8-unit per storey Total 1,000 housing units @25-storey Total 3,000 persons 20
Implication on Land Needs Include roads, etc. Say 50 ha pa 2014-2017 35ha pa Short Term Medium Term 2018-2024 25ha pa 2025-2041 15ha pa Long Term Land Demand <> Needs 21
Land Supply (May 2013) Developable Land Area (ha) Housing Units GIC 27 11,900 GB (1 st Batch deserted) 57 23,000 I 30 20,400 URA 4.9 4,700 Railway 33 8,700 Quarry 27 15,000 Streamline Process 130 45,000 Total 309 128,700 Accommodating (2013-2017) 4-year Demand http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr12-13/chinese/sec/library/1213in21-c.pdf 22
Land Supply (Processing) Developable Land Area (ha) Kowloon East 35 MTR 90 Vacant Government Land (zoned for residential use) 391.5 Rezone I to R 60 Accommodating (2017-2021) 100,000 Households 23
Land Supply (Supported by the Public ) Developable Land Area (ha) Urban Renewal 50 Brownfield 800 I zoned Land (Remaining) 1,400 Accommodating (2021-2041) 450,000 Households 24
More Land Supply Developable Land Area (ha) U zoned Land 600 Underground 400 Govt Land in Short Term Tenancy for Clubs 300? Military Use Land 2,750 Accommodating (2041- ) 800,000 Households 25
Appendixes Housing Completion No. of Transactions 2 nd Hand Housing Market Characteristics The End 完 comments are welcome. Enquiries to: ecyyiu@cuhk.edu.hk 26
Housing Completion Forecast Year PRH HOS Private Housing Total Housing Completion 2010-11 13,700 0 13,400 27,100 2011-12 13,900 0 9,450 23,350 2012-13 14,800 0 10,150 24,950 2013-14 14,100 0 8,254 22,354 2014-15* 12,700 2,000 15,820 30,520 2015-16* 20,500 2,000 15,000 37,500 2016-17* 18,700 2,000 15,000 35,700 Source: HKHA and DevB 27
Housing Supply (Housing Unit Sold) Year Completion Pre-sale Consent & Assign Sold Cum. Sellable * Pending to be Appr. 2004 23,900 23,804 25,694 10,246 7,399 2007 11,340 11,286 20,123 4,374 10,463 2010 13,410 9,234 13,646 56 7,525 2013 8,250 14,171 11,046 5,781 7,697 2014* 15,820 15,500 16,758 4,523 NA Ave 20,589 21,201 16,761 6,436 7,566 Buffer: Cumulative Sellable Units
Elasticity of Housing Demand 300.0 HPI v Cum Sellable Units 250.0 y = -0.0094x + 203.67 R² = 0.3643 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 29
No. of Transactions (1 st & 2 nd Hands) Year 1 st NoT 2 nd NoT Vacancy % HPI 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014* Ave 23,088 49,886 6.8% 69.9 15,994 87,368 6.0% 121.9 11,046 84,885 4.9% 163.0 10,880 73,582 4.3% 219.7 16,758 46,782 4.0% 265.8 16,761 74,116 NA 1 st Hand Supply is New Supply
2 nd Hand Market is for Reallocation Only Migration 2 nd Hand Transaction Downsizing / Tenure Change Release of Vacant Units 31
Household Migration Moved Inter-District Move Into Private Housing Intra-District Move Into Private Housing Total No. of Household Move pa Average No. of 2 nd Hand Transactions No. of Housing Units No. of Household Move pa 193,039 36,608 165,879 33,176 71,784 74,116 2 nd Hand Transactions = Migration Source: 2011 Census 32
2 nd Hand NoT & HPI yoy 40% 30% yoy HPI (right axis) 150.00% 100.00% 20% 50.00% 10% 0.00% 0% -10% 1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50.00% -20% 2 nd Hand No. of Transactions Change for -30% Profit -100.00% 33-150.00%