Monthly Report THE BOTTOM LINE Pricing in the southern Nevada housing market continued its upward trajectory in. With median resale closing prices rebounding by 34.1 percent, market trends are more reflective of the early 2s as opposed to a community that was once devastated by a housing bubble and economic collapse. On the surface, the trends are positive with homeowners loan-to-value balances heading in the right direction. The question of sustainability and underlying fundamentals offer a more cautionary tale. With a modest months of effective availability in the resale market, cycle-low foreclosure volumes and feverish investor activity taking place, will the price gains continue? And, more importantly, will the price gains hold? These are the questions that REALTORS, home builders, buyers and sellers are contemplating on a daily basis. Consider these factors. Legislative action in 211 (AB 284) created a shift by suppressing foreclosure activity, and while not by design, limited availability in the market. In 213, the same legislative body took some corrective action by way of AB 3 to soften the regulatory hurdles for banks to foreclose. Between the 211 and 213 legislative changes, Nevada s housing market took the top spot in the nation in terms of mortgage delinquency rates (9-days or more). Borrowers ability to continue to occupy homes while not paying for them will not continue indefinitely. More units are expected to enter the market in the next 12 to 24 months, potentially tempering current home price trends. The x-factor remains investor demand and divesting. At the moment, nearly 6 percent of all home purchases are made with cash, another trend that may be unsustainable. If investor purchases slow, or if investors sell in greater numbers, a weaker supply-demand profile timed with rising REO inventory levels could result in softening conditions. While there are a number of other factors, including population and employment growth trends that may counter these concerns, we recommend proceeding with eyes wide open to be prepared for possible future shifts. NEW HOME HIGHLIGHTS NEW HOME CLOSINGS: The number of new home closings jumped to 65 in, which represented the highest level in nearly three years. Closing volumes were up 85.7 percent from the same month of the prior year, bringing the year-to-date figure to 2,24 (+86.8 percent year-over-year). During the past 12 months, closings totaled 6,43 (+62.2 percent). NEW HOME PRICING: In addition to volume increases, pricing also edged north. The median price of a new home closing was $238,194, an increase of 17.5 percent from the prior year. Importantly, this was the highest median price level since December of 28. The average price per square foot on units with known sizes increased 14.8 percent from the prior year to $19. Future closing prices are expected to rise given higher contract prices in recent months. NEW HOME SUPPLY: The number of new homes permitted in southern Nevada totaled 643 in April, which brings the year-to-date count to 2,385. Through the first four month of the year, permitting volumes are up 52.1 percent. The top 1 most active builders pulling construction permits in April included (in order): DR Horton (9), American West (85), Lennar (72), Ryland (54), Harmony Homes (5), KB Home (47), Richmond American (41), Pulte (38), Dunhill Homes (29) and Pardee (28). EXISTING HOME HIGHLIGHTS EXISTING (RESALE) HOME CLOSINGS: Resale closings in April totaled 4,456 units, which was 4.3 percent below levels posted one year ago. Year-to-date, closing volumes are off 18.1 percent, and during the past 12 months, they remain down 16.7 percent. Availability constraints appear to be the biggest challenge for REALTORS and prospective home buyers. EXISTING (RESALE) HOME PRICING: In response to tighter availability and elevated demand, pricing has continued to climb. The median resale price in April was $143,5, up 34.1 percent from the same period of the prior year. In addition to supply-demand dynamics, a shift to non-distressed asset sales has been a key contributor to the rise. On a per-square-foot basis, prices reached $97 (+4 percent). RESALE AVAILABILITY (MLS LISTINGS): Effective MLS inventory remained low at months, or a total of 4,316 available listings in April. BANK FORECLOSURES (REPOSSESSIONS): A modest 188 homes were foreclosed upon in April, the lowest level since the bust cycle in the southern Nevada housing market began. NEW HOME MARKET SNAPSHOT Value Annual Growth Median Home Price $238,194 +17.5% Average Price Per Square Foot $19.8 +14.8% No. of Closings - Month 65 +85.7% No. of Closings - Year-to-Date 2,24 +86.8% No. of Closings - Last 12 Months 6,43 +62.2% New Home Permits - Month 643 +7.9% New Home Permits - Year-to-Date 2,385 +52.1% New Home Permits - Last 12 Months 6,663 +59.9% Active Subdivisions 151-31.4% Average Sales per Subdivision 4.3 +17.6% EXISTING (RESALE) HOME MARKET SNAPSHOT Value Annual Growth Median Home Price $143,5 +34.1% Average Price Per Square Foot $96.84 +4% No. of Closings - Month 4,456-4.3% No. of Closings - Year-to-Date 15,326-18.1% No. of Closings - Last 12 Months 49,174-16.7% Bank Repossessions - Month 188-27.1% Bank Repossessions - Year-to-Date 858-62.% Bank Repossessions - Last 12 Months 3,7-77.6% MLS Listings (Available) 4,316-8.9% Effective MLS Inventory (in Months) -8.6% SalesTraq 6385 S. Rainbow Blvd., Suite 15 Las Vegas, NV 89118 T: 72.949.3333 E: info@salestraq.com SalesTraq.com
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 $25, $24, $23, $22, $21, $2, $19, $18, 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Monthly Report New Home Sales Median New Home Prices New Home Permits New Home Sales New Home New Home Median New Home New Home Active Average Sales Closings Closing Prices Avg $/SqFt Permits Subdivisions Per Subdivision 252-47.5% $19, -7.% $92.5-1% 313-34.% 244 3.4% 1.3-49.2% May-11 284-44.9% $194,131.4% $97.48-4.6% 436 6.3% 249 9.2% 4-49.5% 357-63.7% $21,364 7.1% $97.94-3.1% 457 8.% 25 12.1% 1.43-67.6% Jul-11 314-23.% $2,887-4.3% $96.6-4.6% 286-21.4% 244 11.4% 9-3% 377-9.8% $197,828-9.3% $97.13-7.1% 337-1.7% 24 1.6% 1.57-18.5% Sep-11 398-1% $25,263-4.% $98.7-5.7% 252 27.3% 241 9.5% 1.65-18.9% 323 -.6% $197,443-8.2% $98.42-4.5% 197-28.9% 243 6.6% 3-6.8% Nov-11 347-1% $27,286 3.% $95.51-9.6% 25 64.5% 24 4.8% 1.45-15.3% 365 4.% $211,265-3.5% $93.17-8.9% 384 3.2% 235 3.1% 1.55 % Jan-12 215-5.3% $211,97 1.8% $92.13-7.8% 222-4.7% 235.4% 1-5.7% 286 7.5% $196,483 3.3% $95.4-1.7% 236.% 241 2.6% 9 4.8% Mar-12 348 23.% $24,37 3.% $98.46 3.8% 514 43.2% 225-5.9% 1.55 3.6% 35 38.9% $22,653 6.7% $95.5 2.8% 596 9.4% 22-9.8% 1.59 54.% May-12 413 45.4% $197,945 2.% $96.18 -% 654 5.% 221-1% 1.87 63.8% 373 4.5% $193,875-3.7% $13.32 5.5% 648 41.8% 217-13.2% 1.72 2.4% Jul-12 468 49.% $24,111 1.6% $98.19 1.7% 549 92.% 212-13.1% 2.21 71.5% 62 59.7% $24,737 3.5% $15.44 8.6% 573 7.% 26-14.2% 2.92 86.% Sep-12 592 48.7% $198,845-3.1% $12.64 4.% 437 73.4% 186-22.8% 3.18 92.7% 58 79.6% $216,45 9.4% $13.98 5.6% 543 175.6% 184-24.3% 3.15 137.1% Nov-12 557 6.5% $219, 5.7% $19.56 14.7% 477 9% 181-24.6% 3.8 112.8% 65 65.8% $219,963 4.1% $18.21 16.1% 397 3.4% 184-21.7% 3.29 111.7% Jan-13 512 138.1% $22,355 4.% $116.5 26.% 599 169.8% 168-28.5% 3.5 233.1% 497 73.8% $231,573 17.9% $119.45 25.2% 463 96.2% 152-36.9% 3.27 175.5% Mar-13 581 67.% $222,21 8.7% $114.9 15.9% 68 32.3% 153-32.% 3.8 145.5% 65 85.7% $238,194 17.5% $19.8 14.8% 643 7.9% 151-31.4% 4.3 17.6% Note: Growth rate (%) reflects year-over-year changes 2
6, 5,5 Monthly Report Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Median Existing Home Prices $155, $145, $135, $125, $115, $15, $95, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Foreclosures (REOs) Existing Home Median Existing Home Bank Available MLS Effective MLS Closings Closing Prices Avg $/SqFt Repossessions Listings (Resale) Inventory (in months) 5,25 15.3% $16,5-14.8% $69.94-12.9% 1,855-14.2% 14,182 36.8% 3.9 44.4% May-11 5,117 21.5% $15,8-14.% $7.44-1% 2,292 35.2% 13,891 26.8% 3.6 33.3% 5,72 13.5% $15,3-14.4% $68.46-12.4% 1,953 24.7% 13,852 13.% 3.1 24.% Jul-11 4,866 14.6% $14, -13.3% $68.29-12.2% 1,521-3.9% 12,672-5.% 3.3 6.5% 5,74 34.1% $13,9-12.2% $68.9-1.7% 1,51 4.2% 13,149-11.5% 3.1-22.5% Sep-11 4,977 13.3% $14,9-1.5% $68.56-1% 1,16-26.3% 12,761-18.9% 3.2-27.3% 4,2 -.7% $15, -4.5% $67.33-7.8% 928-45.1% 12,228-24.9% 3.2-3.4% Nov-11 4,572 5.% $13, -14.7% $66.58-12.3% 984 2.2% 11,86-33.% 3.2-31.9% 5,153 14.2% $14,9-8.7% $67.13-9.1% 94-4% 1,54-35.3% 2.8-33.3% Jan-12 4,418 1% $1, -8.3% $65.1-1.7% 1,21-36.8% 9,536-37.8% 2.8-42.9% 4,331 7.7% $11, -7.3% $65.83-8.9% 62-35.2% 7,873-45.3% 2.2-53.2% Mar-12 5,299 2.4% $15, -2.8% $67.44-3.9% 356-83.2% 5,897-58.7% 2.1-48.8% 4,657-7.3% $17,.5% $68.57-2.% 258-86.1% 4,738-66.6% -66.7% May-12 4,833-5.6% $112, 5.9% $75.55 7.3% 48-82.2% 4,577-67.1% -68.2% 4,658-18.3% $115, 9.2% $78.2 14.2% 313-84.% 4,636-66.5% -6.6% Jul-12 4,78-16.2% $116, 11.5% $79.81 16.9% 285-8% 4,713-62.8% 1.4-58.4% 4,526-2% $119, 14.5% $81.8 18.7% 272-81.9% 4,911-62.7% 1.4-56.2% Sep-12 3,684-26.% $122,781 17.% $79.6 16.1% 21-81.% 4,93-61.4% 1.6-5% 4,257 1.4% $124, 18.1% $79.67 18.3% 262-71.8% 4,767-61.% -57.8% Nov-12 3,776-17.4% $125, 21.4% $82.9 23.3% 186-8% 4,694-57.7% 1.5-53.8% 4,36-21.7% $13, 23.9% $83.88 24.9% 213-76.4% 4,516-57.2% -53.7% Jan-13 3,371-23.7% $13, 3.% $87.59 34.5% 253-75.2% 4,226-55.7% 1.6-44.3% 3,637-16.% $13, 28.7% $86.96 32.1% 212-65.8% 4,22-48.9% -41.% Mar-13 3,862-27.1% $138,151 31.6% $9.42 34.1% 25-42.4% 4,193-28.9% -42.6% 4,456-4.3% $143,5 34.1% $96.84 4% 188-27.1% 4,316-8.9% -8.6% Note: Growth rate (%) reflects year-over-year changes 3
Monthly Report Existing Home Sales NON-DISTRESSED SALES (61%): Accounting for 6 out of 1 resale closings, non-distressed home sales continued to climb. Non-distressed sales are sometimes referred to as equity sales or transactions that do not fall within one of the other three categories listed below. April was the fourth consecutive month in which non-distressed sales accounted for more than one-half of all sales. The 2,696 closings posted a median price of $15,, representing a 38.9-percent jump from the prior year. The average price per square foot reached $14, a respectable increase from the $99 posted one month prior (March 213). SHORT SALES (25%): Successful short sales accounted for 1 in every 4 closings during the month of April. A total of 1,115 units were sold for less than the amount of the outstanding mortgage. The number of property sales with lender approvals resulted in a median price of $125,118, which was 13.7 percent higher than the prior year. This distressed category posted the lowest median pricing level of all segments, primarily due to the extended contract period. The average price per square foot of successful short sales rose from $76 in March to $79 in April. BANK OWNED PROPERTIES (9%): As fewer homes moved forward through the foreclosure process, there were a limited number of bank properties sold in April. A total of 419 REO sales took place. The median price point escalated to $145,9, or an average of $16 per square foot. Pricing within the segment was up 32.6 percent from the prior year, reporting the second-highest rate of appreciation. The price per square foot was the highest among all segments, partially attributable to the mix of sales taking place (units in higher-density communities). AUCTION SALES (5%): Successful purchases at auction have also trailed off as fewer homes are moving through the foreclosure system. With a modest 226 auction closings, sales volumes are off 46.6 percent from a year ago. The median price of these sales was $135,55, which was below the market-wide average but ahead of the prior year by 47. percent. The average price per square foot rose to $83 from $77 in the preceding month. NUMBER OF SALES MEDIAN CLOSING PRICE Distressed Sales Categories Non- Total Distressed Sales Categories Non- Total Auction REO Short Sale Distressed All Types Auction REO Short Sale Distressed All Types 788 2,25 822 1,39 5,25 $9,2 $15, $12, $11, $16,5 May-11 762 2,96 836 1,423 5,117 $9, $11, $12, $12, $15,8 684 2,587 97 1,524 5,72 $93,45 $11,5 $115,26 $112, $15,3 Jul-11 643 2,296 727 1,2 4,866 $92, $1, $117,5 $111,22 $14, 611 2,636 959 1,534 5,74 $91,1 $98, $119, $19,95 $13,9 Sep-11 57 2,241 894 1,272 4,977 $85,47 $13,5 $113, $18, $14,9 56 1,789 84 1,11 4,2 $94,75 $13,5 $111,5 $15, $15, Nov-11 53 1,949 98 1,185 4,572 $89,5 $13, $113,5 $13,5 $13, 53 2,121 1,26 1,53 5,153 $85,1 $1,5 $115, $19,9 $14,9 Jan-12 55 1,796 888 1,184 4,418 $8, $1, $11, $14,11 $1, 628 1,679 923 1,11 4,331 $93,81 $99,9 $18, $14,5 $11, Mar-12 62 2,36 1,78 1,583 5,299 $89,45 $15, $19, $18, $15, 423 1,652 1,71 1,511 4,657 $92,2 $11, $11, $18, $17, May-12 48 1,44 1,219 1,766 4,833 $19,35 $114, $11, $115, $112, 345 1,217 1,28 2,68 4,658 $11,4 $12, $15, $12, $115, Jul-12 355 782 1,267 1,674 4,78 $12,1 $12, $111, $121,667 $116, 321 768 1,486 1,951 4,526 $19, $127, $112, $125, $119, Sep-12 224 548 1,315 1,597 3,684 $112,25 $127,69 $115,5 $13, $122,781 29 572 1,493 1,92 4,257 $113,85 $13,8 $117,9 $126,25 $124, Nov-12 231 494 1,235 1,816 3,776 $111, $137,13 $118,5 $128, $125, 167 484 1,514 1,871 4,36 $11,1 $14, $129,45 $13, $13, Jan-13 235 449 911 1,776 3,371 $127, $149, $12, $134,945 $13, 242 377 1,13 1,915 3,637 $12,25 $134, $126, $137, $13, Mar-13 222 364 1,94 2,182 3,862 $12,5 $143,846 $125, $146, $138,151 226 419 1,115 2,696 4,456 $135,55 $145,9 $125,118 $15, $143,5 4
Monthly Report Effective Housing Inventory By Zip Code (in Months) Zip Code Inventory Zip Code Inventory 892.7 89119 1.7 8911 1.8 8912 2.2 8912 89121 1.7 8914 89122 1.4 8915 89123 893 2.1 89128 8931.7 89129 8932 8913 8944 89131 8952 1.4 89134 8974.7 89135 8981 89138.6 8984 89139 8985 89141 8986 1. 89142 8911 2. 89143 8912 1.5 89144 8913 89145 8914 1.4 89146 2.3 8916 2.5 89147 8917 89148 8918 1.6 89149 1.6 8919 2.2 89156 1. 8911 89166 1. 89113 89169 2.9 89115 2. 89178 89117 1.6 89179.6 89118 89183.7 Note: Effective inventory (in months) is computed based on available (non-contingent) listings in the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and resale closings in the MLS. 89138.6 89166 1. 894 89124 89135 89144 89134 89143 89129 89149 1.6 89148 89147 89178 89179.6 89128 89145 89117 1.6 89113 89131 8913 8918 1.6 89146 2.3 8917 8913 89118 89139 89141 8912 1.5 8985 8984 8931 8932 8916 2.5 8919 2.2 89169 2.9 89123 89183.7 89119 1.7 8944 893 2.1 8911 2. 8914 1.4 8987 N/A 8986 1. 8981 89121 1.7 8912 2.2 8952 1.4 8974.7 89115 2. 8911 8914 89142 8912 89156 1. 89124 89122 1.4 8911 1.8 89191 89124 8915 892.7 5
Monthly Report EXISTING HOME CLOSINGS By Type 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Key Statistics Home Closings 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Short Sale Non-Distressed REO Auction '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 By Price $16, $15, $14, $13, $12, $11, $1, $9, $8, $7, Closings Pricing Resale Closings Month 12 Months Median Avg PSF Auction Sales 226 5% 3,266 7% $135,55 $83 Short Sales 1,115 25% 14,78 3% $125,118 $79 REO Sales 419 9% 7,914 16% $145,9 $16 Non-Distressed Sales 2,696 61% 23,214 47% $15, $14 Total 4,456 1% 49,174 1% $143,5 $97 $35, $325, $3, $275, $25, $225, $2, $175, $15, $125, $1, $75, Short Sale Non-Distressed REO Auction Median Home Prices 59% 48% of April Sales were CASH of April Sales were VACANT RESALE HOMES NEW HOMES RESALE HOMES NEW HOMES '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 SalesTraq is a comprehensive residential real estate research and analysis solution. For more than two decades, SalesTraq has been providing home pricing, sales and development data to real estate agents, homebuilders, appraisers, buyers and investors. Our firm also maintains an archive catalogue of nearly 2, floor plans of Nevada homes. The following highlights our products and services: SALESTRAQ STANDARD: A database of new residential construction in southern Nevada providing an easy-to-navigate search feature. The product also includes access to nearly 2, searchable floor plans, which is ideal for listing presentations, brochures and more. SALESTRAQ PRO: In addition to the features of SalesTraq Standard, the professional version includes reporting functions for residential permits, new home closing data, existing (resale) home closings, final mapped lots and raw land sales activity. FASTFACTS MONTHLY REPORT: The monthly statistical publication on relevant housing market information trends new and existing housing data. Information spans supply and demand factors, including foreclosure activity and breakdowns of the type of transactions taking place. NEW HOME LINK: This marketing and research tool for REALTORS assists agents and their clients in identifying relevant new home communities and properties. This powerful tool also allows for increased communication between buyers and their agents. CUSTOM MARKET RESEARCH: For those with more diverse research and analysis requirements, our team of analysts are available to provide professional consulting services. Our services include: pricing and absorption analyses, market analyses, feasibility studies, market segmentation assessments, product positioning and other research project-specific assignments. CRYSTAL BALL SEMINARS: Known for providing timely, accurate and insightful presentations, Crystal Ball Seminars is dedicated to an interactive learning and information sharing experience. The seminars are also recognized for networking and business development opportunities. 6 SalesTraq 6385 S. Rainbow Blvd., Suite 15 Las Vegas, NV 89118 T: 72.949.3333 E: info@salestraq.com SalesTraq.com