Metro Market OUTLOOK TM Vol. 49New York First Quarter 2006 ANALYZES: CBD Office Suburban Office Industrial Retail Apartments REPORTS: Property Prices Property Rents Market Forecasts (NEW) Demographic Highlights Local Economy Labor Force Characteristics Educational Achievement Tax Structure Housing & Living Costs Quality of Life Factors A publication of the NATIONAL REAL ESTATE INDEX PUBLISHER:
Vol. 49 REPORT FORMAT Metro Market Outlook ("MMO") replaces the previous Metro Market Facts publication. While maintaining the basic "facts" components of the previous report, the new MMO has been reorganized to place the pertinent real estate information and commentary up front and adds a new market forecast component hence the new name. MMO is now organized into two primary parts as follows: Part 1 Real Estate Facts and Forecast presents an overview of key real estate facts including values, rents, cap rates, inventory, vacancy and absorption trends and includes a new section presenting a lookahead forecast for the market, by property sector. Section I: Section II: Section III: Section IV: Local market price, and capitalization rate trends for the preceding 12 months. Review of rent facts and trends for the local market by property sectors. Inventory, vacancy, absorption and sales information for various property sectors. Market forecasts projecting a ranking of the investment potential for the market, by property sector, as compared to national averages. (This is a new section.) Part 2 Metro Market Facts provides an in-depth look (generally in a tabular format) at the key economic, demographic, public policy, and quality of life factors that can affect the demand for real estate. Section V: Snapshot highlighting the key economic, demographic and real estate-related findings. Section VI: Local economic base and current labor force and job formation trends. Section VII: Provides various educational costs and parameters. Section VIII: Explores local living costs. Section IX: Reports other important factors, including retail sales trends and international trade. Section X: Local and state fiscal policies, including taxes and federal spending. Section XI: Summarizes several key quality-of-life considerations. 25 20 15 10 5 Dynamic Reporting available where this symbol appears. 0 The National Real Estate Index has constructed a web-based interactive Dynamic Reporting tool that allows our premium service customers to customize their reported data in a wide variety of charting and graphing formats. The functionality is available to all full-year and enterprise-level subscribers. For additional information on how to receive these services and pricing, please contact paul.wildes@nrei.info or call (800) 992-7257. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS Market Definition 5 Metro Market Outlook Regions/Local Markets 6 Metropolitan Map 7 Market Trends Summary 9 Real Estate Facts & Forecast I. Value Facts & Trends II. A. Current Property Values/Cap Rates 10 B. Value Trends 11 C. Other Property Class Values 11 D. Local Market Property Value Rankings 12 E. Value Growth 12 Rent Facts & Trends A. Current Rent Facts 13 B. Rent Trends 14 C. Local Market Property Rent Rankings 14 D. Rent Growth 15 III. Inventory, Vacancy, Absorption & Sales IV. A. Office Manhattan 16 B. Office Long Island 16 C. Office Westchester County 16 D. Metropolitan Retail Sales Trends 17 E. Metropolitan Average Retail Sales 17 Market Forecast A. Market Score by Sector 18 B. Current Market Scores 19 C. Market Score Trends 19 D. Market Outlook Summary 20 Metro Market Facts V. Demographics A. Metro Population 21 B. County Population Growth 21 C. Household & Population Composition 21 D. State Population Growth 22 E. Area Cities With At Least 50,000 Residents 22 F. Metropolitan Population Gain 23 G. International Immigration to Metropolitan Areas 24 H. Domestic Migration to Metropolitan Areas 25 VI. Employment and Labor Force Characteristics A. Metropolitan Job Formation New York 26 B. Economic Base - Employment by Sectors 26 C. Metropolitan Job Formation Nassau-Suffolk 27 D. Economic Base - Employment by Sectors 27 E. Metropolitan Total Employment Gain (10-Year) 28 F. Average Annual Wages - Select Occupations 29 G. Production Wages & Union Membership 29 Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS Metro Market Facts (continued) VI. Employment and Labor Force Characteristics (continued) H. State Workers Compensation Premiums 30 I. State Minimum Wage/Overtime Status 30 VII. Education A. Educational Levels 31 B. Graduate Education 31 C. Educational Expenditures and Salaries 32 D. University R&D Expenditures 32 VIII. Housing & Living Costs A. Overall Cost of Living 33 B. Metropolitan Housing Permits 33 C. Homeownership 34 D. Single Family Home Costs 34 E. Local Utility Costs 35 F. Health Insurance 35 IX. Other Economic Indicators A. Metropolitan Median Household Income 36 B. High-Tech Industry Employment 36 C. Metropolitan Area Patents 37 D. Major Airport Activity 37 E. International Trade 38 F. Gross State Product 38 G. Gross Metropolitan Product 39 X. Taxes and Expenditures A. State Tax Rates/Employer Expenses 40 B. Local Residential Property Taxes 40 C. Local Commercial Property Taxes 41 D. Tourism & Entertainment Taxes 41 E. State Tax Revenue 42 F. Federal Spending Per Capita 42 XI. Quality of Life A. State Livability Index 43 B. Crime Rate 43 C. Climate 44 D. Mode of Travel to Work 44 E. Congestion Index 45 F. Major Professional Athletic Franchises 45 Methodology 46 Market Score Methodology/Rating Explanation 47 Additional Data Resources/Web Links 48 Contact Info/Other Metro Market Reports Available 49 Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 4
NEW YORK: MARKET DEFINITION New York City is not only the largest U.S. city, it is also one of the largest in the world. The city is made up of five boroughs: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island. The port of New York is found on the New Jersey side of the Hudson River and is one of the leading ports in the world. Along with London and Tokyo, New York makes up the three world cities in charge of global finance. It also boasts three major airports: JFK International, LaGuardia and Newark International. The city attracts millions of tourists each year. They come to enjoy the architectural icons of the Chrysler Building, Empire State Building and the Statue of Liberty, as well as numerous museums (Metropolitan Museum of Art, MOMA, the Guggenheim, the Whitney) and an endless variety of entertainment and shopping. OLD DEFINITION New York PMSA and Nassau-Suffolk PMSA Include: NEW DEFINITION* New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ and Nassau-Suffolk Metropolitan Divisions Include: New York Bronx County Kings County New York County Putnam County Queens County Richmond County Rockland County Westchester County Nassau-Suffolk Nassau County Suffolk County New York Bronx County Kings County New York County Putnam County Queens County Richmond County Rockland County Westchester County New Jersey Bergen County Hudson County Passaic County Nassau-Suffolk Nassau County Suffolk County *The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently released revised defintions for the nation s metropolitan statistical areas. Where possible, we have implemented the new definitions and will continue to phase in new data as it becomes available. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 5
METRO MARKET OUTLOOK REGIONS/LOCAL MARKETS PACIFIC/NORTHWEST Oakland-East Bay Portland Sacramento San Francisco San Jose Seattle Honolulu PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST Albuquerque Las Vegas Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix Riverside-San Bernardino San Diego PLAINS/WEST Austin Dallas-Ft. Worth Denver Oklahoma City Salt Lake City FLORIDA/GULF COAST Ft. Lauderdale Houston Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa-St. Petersburg West Palm Beach SOUTHEAST Atlanta Charlotte Greenville-Spartanburg Memphis Nashville Raleigh-Durham MID-ATLANTIC Baltimore Central New Jersey Philadelphia Washington NORTHEAST Boston Hartford New York/Nassau-Suffolk Northern New Jersey EAST CENTRAL Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Indianapolis WEST CENTRAL Chicago Kansas City Milwaukee Minneapolis-St. Paul St. Louis Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 6
Richmond Van Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 NEW YORK: METROPOLITAN MAP Land Area of New York PMSA: Population Density (2003): 1,148 sq. miles 8,207 people per sq. mile 280 Elizabeth Garden West Orange 78 Newark Int'l. Airport State Passaic Parkway East Orange Orange 80 Newark River Paterson Montclair Passaic Clifton 3 River Passaic Kearny Newark Bay NEW JERSEY Bloomfield Nutley Belleville Garfield New Jersey New 1 Broadway Paramus 208 Hackensack Jersey 9 Jersey City Turnpike 78 River Hackensack Turnpike Statue of Liberty 1 495 Union City 9 Ellis Is. Teaneck 95 478 278 95 North Bergen 23rd 42nd N.Y.U. Canal F. D. Delancey Brooklyn Bridge Englewood Fort Lee 27 Central Broadway Park Manhattan Flatbush Av. East 9A 125th Park Av. RooseveltDrive River 278 9W Hudson River 87 9 Long Grand 25 Brooklyn Linden Blvd. 9A 9 1 278 278 Island Pennsylv River Saw Mill ania Pkwy. 895 495 87 Van Cortlandt Park Bronx Park Bronx Zoo La Guardia Airport Central Av. Bronx 27 Bronx Pkwy. Interborough Expy. Woodhaven Pkwy. Cross River Pkwy. Pkwy Cross County Hutchinson Bay 95 678 295 Wyck 25A Forest Park Blvd. Pkwy. River White Plains Pkwy. Cross Grand Expy. NEW YORK 25 678 Clearview Expy. Central 95 1 Island Queens Southern Pkwy. John F. Kennedy Int'l. Airport Pkwy. Pkwy Great Neck 495 Pkwy. Laurelton 9 Staten Rich mond Terr. Bay St. Leif 278 Flatbush Av. Shore Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge 440 Island Expy. 278 Ericson 440 Staten Island Fresh Kills Park Hylan Blvd. Coney Island Drive Gateway National Recreation Area N Pkwy. Richmond Hylan Blvd. Ave. New York, NY 0 3 Mi 0 3 Km Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 7
NASSAU-SUFFOLK: METROPOLITAN MAP Land Area of Nassau-Suffolk PMSA: Population Density (2003): 1,198 sq. miles 2,343 people per sq. mile Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 8
NEW YORK: MARKET TRENDS SUMMARY CBD OFFICE Manhattan Downtown/NYC's downtown office sector has a $39.98 per square foot effective rent for Class A office, which is 2.4% higher than last quarter and 7.6% higher than last year. This metro has a $423.47 per square foot average price for CBD office, which is 3.1% higher than last quarter and 19.9% higher than last year. New York's downtown office sector has a $60.34 per square foot effective rent for Class A office, which is 2.5% higher than last quarter and 10.4% higher than last year. This metro has a $552.38 per square foot average price for CBD office, which is 1.3% higher than last quarter and 7.2% higher than last year. SUBURBAN OFFICE The metro of New York has a $30.89 per square foot effective rent for Class A suburban office, which is 1.8% higher than last quarter and 5.1% lower than last year. This metro has a $247.08 per square foot average price for suburban office, which is 0.9% higher than last quarter and 2.9% higher than last year. WAREHOUSE The metro of New York has a $8.43 per square foot effective rent for warehouse, which is 0.4% higher than last quarter and 1.1% higher than last year. This metro has a $74.06 per square foot average price for warehouse, which is 1.4% higher than last quarter and 4.2% higher than last year. RETAIL The metro of New York has a $27.94 per square foot effective rent for Class A unenclosed shopping centers, which is 2.7% higher than last quarter and 7.5% higher than last year. This metro has a $246.20 per square foot average price for shopping centers, which is 4.1% higher than last quarter and 17.7% higher than last year. APARTMENT The metro of Manhattan Downtown/NYC has a $46.57 per square foot effective rent for Class A apartments, which is 1.9% higher than last quarter and 5.4% higher than last year. This metro has a $528.00 per square foot average price for apartments, which is 3.6% higher than last quarter and 11.0% higher than last year. The metro of New York has a $27.34 per square foot effective rent for Class A apartments, which is 2.1% higher than last quarter and 6.7% higher than last year. This metro has a $225.94 per square foot average price for apartments, which is 5.1% higher than last quarter and 21.9% higher than last year. Source: NREI Rent Monitor; Value Monitor; and Metro Market Outlook, Section III. Historical data taken from prior quarter and year-ago NREI Metro Market Facts reports. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 9
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 Real Estate Facts & Forecast I. VALUE FACTS & TRENDS A. Current Property Values/Cap Rates CBD Suburban Class A Class B Office Office Warehouse Retail Apartment Apartment Price Cap Price Cap Price Cap Price Cap Price Cap Price Cap S/F Rate S/F Rate S/F Rate S/F Rate S/F Rate S/F Rate National $270.88 6.8% $207.17 7.0% $57.02 7.5% $172.06 7.1% $141.04 6.0% $93.08 7.0% Northeast Region 405.57 6.2 231.40 7.1 68.45 7.6 194.45 7.4 200.09 6.3 114.08 7.2 Manhattan Downtown* 1 Q. '06 423.47 5.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 528.00 5.5 219.39 6.8 4 Q. '05 410.74 5.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 509.69 5.6 210.71 7.0 1 Q. '05 353.10 6.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 475.67 5.8 189.50 7.6 New York** 1 Q. '06 552.38 5.8 247.08 7.2 74.06 8.2 246.20 7.2 225.94 6.6 118.57 7.8 4 Q. '05 545.47 5.8 244.94 7.2 73.05 8.3 236.55 7.4 214.91 6.8 114.13 8.0 1 Q. '05 515.15 6.0 240.19 7.3 71.09 8.5 209.14 8.2 185.27 7.6 105.56 8.5 Nassau- Suffolk 1 Q. '06 217.16 7.0 224.65 6.1 66.73 6.9 184.40 7.0 169.40 7.3 107.97 7.7 4 Q. '05 207.23 7.3 210.16 6.5 65.37 7.0 181.13 7.1 162.34 7.5 103.31 7.9 1 Q. '05 190.83 7.9 179.96 7.5 59.87 7.4 171.35 7.4 148.49 8.0 96.09 8.3 Source: NREI Value Monitor. *For the CBD office sector, these figures represent Midtown Manhattan. For the other property categories, these data reflect primarily the three counties in northern New Jersey, as well as Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam counties in New York, that, according to the census bureau, now constitute the New York metropolitan area. **For the office sector, these figures reflect Downtown Manhattan; for apartments, Class A price data primarily reflects high-rise buildings in Manhattan; the Class B data reflects similar properties in the other city boroughs. These apartment data are provided for information only and are not included in the national/regional indices. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 10
I. VALUE FACTS & TRENDS B. Value Trends Change in Price Per Square Foot New York National $400 CBD Office Sub Office Retail Class A Apt Class B Apt Warehouse $250 $350 $200 $300 Average value per square foot $250 $200 $150 $150 $100 $100 $50 $50 $0 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 $0 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 Source: NREI Value Monitor. C. Other Property Class Values Most Recent Period PROPERTY SECTOR PRICE PER SF PROPERTY SECTOR PRICE PER SF Manhattan Downtown Class B CBD Office $241.97 Class C CBD Office 170.77 Manhattan Midtown Class B CBD Office $307.76 Class C CBD Office 221.82 New York Class B Suburban Office $164.80 Class C Suburban Office 109.10 Class B Warehouse $55.72 Class C Warehouse 39.02 Class A Self-Storage 164.25 Class B/C Self-Storage 118.34 Class A Flex/Business Campus 153.84 Class B Flex/Business Campus 94.23 Class C Flex/Business Campus 52.09 Source: NREI Value Monitor. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 11
I. VALUE FACTS & TRENDS D. Local Market Property Value Rankings 1st Qtr. 2006 - Rankings (#1 is highest rank, #61 is lowest) CBD SUBURBAN CLASS A CLASS B OFFICE OFFICE WAREHOUSE RETAIL APARTMENT APARTMENT Manhattan Downtown/NYC 4 N/A N/A N/A 1 1 New York 1 8 9 3 3 11 Nassau- Suffolk 17 15 16 17 14 12 *The figures above denote the local market ranking for the corresponding property sector among the 61 metropolitan areas (plus Manhattan Downtown/New York City for CBD Office, Class A and Class B Apartment ) analyzed by the NREI Value Monitor. A ranking of "1" designates the highest value per square foot for Class A space (except for Class B Apartment) for the corresponding property sector among all markets for the noted time period. Source: NREI Value Monitor. E. Value Growth Change in Price Per Square Foot CBD SUBURBAN CLASS A CLASS B OFFICE OFFICE WAREHOUSE RETAIL APARTMENT APARTMENT % CHANGE FROM QUARTER AGO New York +1.3% +0.9% +1.4% +4.1% +5.1% +3.9% National Average +2.4% +1.6% +3.1% +2.8% +3.5% +4.3% % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO New York +7.2% +2.9% +4.2% +17.7% +22.0% +12.3% National Average +12.8% +7.5% +9.6% +12.3% +13.3% +12.6% % CHANGE FROM TWO YEARS AGO New York +9.4% +13.6% +11.3% +32.7% +39.6% +22.5% National Average +22.5% +15.1% +20.0% +23.9% +24.7% +21.2% Source: NREI Value Monitor. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 12
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 II. RENT FACTS & TRENDS A. Current Property Rents CBD Suburban Class A Class B Office Office Warehouse Retail Apartment Apartment Asking Effective Free Asking Effective Free Asking Effective Free Asking Effective Free Asking Effective Free Asking Effective Free sf sf % sf sf % sf sf % sf sf % sf sf % sf sf % National $30.13 $29.31 2.9% $23.93 $23.24 3.0% $5.86 $5.71 2.7% $19.75 $19.49 1.4% $15.93 $15.56 2.7% $11.98 $11.71 2.6% Northeast Region 46.36 45.37 2.4 26.78 26.07 2.7 7.44 7.28 2.2 24.15 23.89 1.1 25.33 24.99 1.4 17.02 16.77 1.4 Nassau- Suffolk 1 Q. '06 28.26 27.86 1.4 25.83 25.39 1.7 7.19 7.12 1.0 24.80 24.48 1.3 21.99 21.70 1.3 16.65 16.38 1.6 4 Q. '05 27.98 27.50 1.7 25.55 25.04 2.0 7.11 7.03 1.1 24.63 24.29 1.4 21.74 21.35 1.8 16.35 16.07 1.7 1 Q. '05 27.77 27.41 1.3 25.02 24.54 1.9 6.73 6.65 1.2 23.90 23.59 1.3 21.50 20.81 3.2 16.03 15.69 2.1 New York* 1 Q. '06 61.32 60.34 1.6 31.55 30.89 2.1 8.58 8.43 1.8 28.25 27.94 1.1 27.67 27.34 1.2 18.20 17.95 1.4 4 Q. '05 60.17 58.85 2.2 31.17 30.36 2.6 8.56 8.40 1.9 27.60 27.21 1.4 27.15 26.77 1.4 18.00 17.71 1.6 1 Q. '05 56.41 54.66 3.1 30.47 29.40 3.5 8.47 8.34 1.5 26.32 25.98 1.3 26.39 25.62 2.9 17.51 17.26 1.4 Manhattan Downtown** 1 Q. '06 40.75 39.98 1.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 46.90 46.57 0.7 27.43 27.21 0.8 4 Q. '05 40.26 39.05 3.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 46.22 45.71 1.1 27.15 26.88 1.0 1 Q. '05 38.47 37.16 3.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 44.67 44.18 1.1 26.59 26.19 1.5 Source: NREI Rent Monitor. *For the CBD office sector, these figures represent Midtown Manhattan. **The office data reflect Downtown Manhattan; the apartment data reflect NYC rents only. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 13
II. RENT FACTS & TRENDS B. Rent Trends/Change in Rent Per Square Foot New York National $60 CBD Office Sub Office Retail Class A Apt Class B Apt Warehouse $40 $50 $30 Average rent per square foot $40 $30 $20 $20 $10 $10 $0 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 $0 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 1Q04 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 Source: NREI Rent Monitor. C. Local Market Property Rent Rankings 1st Qtr. 2006 - Rankings (#1 is highest rank, #61 is lowest) CBD SUBURBAN CLASS A CLASS B OFFICE OFFICE WAREHOUSE RETAIL APARTMENT APARTMENT Manhattan Downtown/NYC 4 N/A N/A N/A 1 1 New York 1 3 2 3 2 3 Nassau- Suffolk 14 11 13 10 9 10 *The figures above denote the local market ranking for the corresponding property sector among the 61 metropolitan areas (plus Manhattan Downtown/New York City for CBD office, Class A and Class B Apartment ) analyzed by the NREI Rent Monitor. A ranking of "1" designates the highest effective rent per square foot for Class A space (except for Class B Apartment) for the corresponding property sector among all markets for the noted time period. Source: NREI Rent Monitor. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 14
II. RENT FACTS & TRENDS D. Rent Growth/Change in Rent Per Square Foot CBD SUBURBAN CLASS A CLASS B OFFICE OFFICE WAREHOUSE RETAIL APARTMENT APARTMENT % CHANGE FROM QUARTER AGO New York +2.5% +1.7% +0.4% +2.7% +2.1% +1.4% National Average +1.8% +1.3% +1.2% +1.4% +1.7% +1.4% % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO New York +10.4% +5.1% +1.1% +7.5% +6.7% +4.0% National Average +4.6% +4.4% +5.5% +5.6% +5.1% +4.6% % CHANGE FROM TWO YEARS AGO New York +15.9% +6.5% +2.8% +13.3% +10.6% +8.4% National Average +4.9% +6.2% +10.9% +9.4% +8.2% +6.9% Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 15
25 20 15 10 5 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 III. INVENTORY/VACANCY/ ABSORPTION & SALES A. Office Manhattan METRO SUBMARKETS INVENTORY VACANCY ABSORPTION Downtown 82,600,000 11.2% 1,030,000 Midtown 196,100,000 5.0% (390,000) Midtown South 73,600,000 5.5% 1,200,000 Market Total 352,300,000 6.6% 1,840,000 Reported as of first quarter 2006. Absorption is year-to-date. Source: CB Richard Ellis (Manhattan). B. Office Long Island METRO SUBMARKETS INVENTORY VACANCY ABSORPTION Western Nassau 6,300,000 9.8% (98,000) Central Nassau 9,900,000 11.5% (18,000) Eastern Nassau 6,700,000 13.4% 76,000 Nassau County 23,000,000 11.6% (40,000) Western Suffolk 8,500,000 13.1% (84,000) Central Suffolk 6,600,000 16.4% (24,000) Suffolk County 15,100,000 14.5% (108,000) Market Total 38,000,000 12.8% (148,000) Reported as of first quarter 2006. Absorption is year-to-date. Source: CB Richard Ellis (Stamford, CT). C. Office Westchester County METRO SUBMARKETS INVENTORY AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION White Plains CBD 6,100,000 13.8% (103,650) East 11,000,000 21.1% (220,570) West 4,400,000 16.0% 33,250 North 8,100,000 9.8% 6,770 South 2,500,000 9.6% 38,380 Market Total 32,100,000 15.3% (245,820) Reported as of first quarter 2006. Absorption is year-to-date. Source: CB Richard Ellis (Stamford, CT). Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 16
III. INVENTORY/VACANCY/ ABSORPTION & SALES D. Metropolitan Retail Sales Trends Metropolitan Retail Sales -- % Change from Prior Year (August 2005) MONTH FYTD New York-Northern NJ-Long Island 2.7% 1.8% National 2.0% 2.1% This data reflects same-store sales at major department stores during the current month and fiscal year to date (beginning in February) compared to the same period one year ago. Source: International Council of Shopping Centers, New York, NY. E. Metropolitan Average Retail Sales Per Household 50000 40000 $48,816 30000 20000 10000 $26,081 $35,813 0 New York Nassau- Suffolk U.S. Metro* Market Rank** New York 56 Nassau-Suffolk 4 *The U.S. Metro figure represents the average retail sales per household of 323 metropolitan areas; $34,036 is the average retail sales per household nationwide. **Ranking of 57 metropolitan areas, with the #1 ranking representing the highest amount of retail sales per household. Source: Sales & Marketing Management: 2003 Survey of Buying Power. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 17
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 IV. MARKET FORECAST A. Market Score by Sector RELATIVE INVESTMENT CURRENT QUARTER YEAR TWO YEARS SECTOR / MARKET POTENTIAL* QUARTER RANK AGO RANK AGO RANK AGO RANK CBD OFFICE New York EXCELLENT 95 3 94 1 92 2 85 14 Northeast Region AVERAGE 85 85 85 82 National Median AVERAGE 83 83 84 80 SUBURBAN OFFICE New York AVERAGE 84 33 85 27 90 2 88 4 Northeast Region AVERAGE 81 82 83 80 National Median AVERAGE 84 84 82 80 INDUSTRIAL New York GOOD 87 14 82 38 87 9 87 7 Northeast Region AVERAGE 80 80 80 79 National Median AVERAGE 84 83 83 82 RETAIL New York GOOD 88 18 88 17 87 16 88 10 Northeast Region GOOD 88 89 87 87 National Median AVERAGE 85 83 83 83 APARTMENT New York GOOD 88 17 87 21 89 8 87 7 Northeast Region AVERAGE 85 84 85 87 National Median AVERAGE 85 84 82 80 HOSPITALITY New York EXCELLENT 99 2 100 1 98 1 95 2 Northeast Region AVERAGE 86 86 88 84 National Median GOOD 87 86 84 82 The figures shown in the shaded fields above are Market Scores corresponding to the noted property sector, market, and time period. Regional and national figures reflect the median score. The rankings are out of 66 metropolitan areas, with the #1 ranking representing the highest score. Market Score is a proprietary rating system developed in 1992 by Global Real Analytics to evaluate the relative economic strength of local property markets. Utilizing numerous real estate, economic, and demographic data factors, Market Score identifies those markets likely to exhibit the strongest real estate performance within each respective property sector in the two succeeding years following each forecast period. See "Investment Potential" at the end of this publication for additional information on Market Score, and property sector definitions. *INVESTMENT POTENTIAL Rating Score Excellent 93+ Good 86-92 Average 75-85 Fair 65-74 Speculative Below 65 Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 18
IV. MARKET FORECAST B. Current Market Scores METRO: NEW YORK REGION: NORTHEAST NATIONAL HOSPITALITY CBD OFFICE 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 SUBURBAN OFFICE HOSPITALITY CBD OFFICE 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 SUBURBAN OFFICE HOSPITALITY CBD OFFICE 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 SUBURBAN OFFICE APARTMENT WAREHOUSE APARTMENT WAREHOUSE APARTMENT WAREHOUSE RETAIL RETAIL RETAIL The "radar" graphs shown above indicate the current Market Score rating for the indicated metro, as well as regional and national medians. Each graph contains six axes, representing the noted property sector, ranging from 60 to 95. Generally, the larger a shaded area is, the better the real estate performance is forecast to be. Simple visual comparison can be made among the indicated metro, regional, and national Market Scores. C. Market Score Trends Metro Regional National CBD OFFICE SUBURBAN OFFICE WAREHOUSE 100 100 100 90 95 95 80 90 90 85 85 70 80 80 60 75 75 50 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER 70 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER 70 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER RETAIL APARTMENT HOSPITALITY 100 100 100 95 95 95 90 90 90 85 85 85 80 80 80 75 75 75 70 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER 70 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER 70 TWO YEARS AGO YEAR AGO QUARTER AGO CURRENT QUARTER The six graphs shown above are Market Scores corresponding to the noted property sector, market, and time period. Market Score is a proprietary rating system developed in 1992 by Global Real Analytics to evaluate the relative economic strength of local property markets. Utilizing numerous real estate, economic, and demographic data factors, Market Score identifies those markets likely to exhibit the strongest real estate performance within each respective property sector in the two succeeding years following each forecast period. See "Investment Potential" at the end of this publication for additional information on Market Score, and property sector definitions. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 19
IV. MARKET FORECAST D. Market Outlook Summary* CBD OFFICE The vacancy rate for the Long Island office sector is excellent. Absorption continues to stagnate. Rent increases were flat last quarter, but show moderate improvement over the last few quarters. The rate of net new job growth is among the lowest in the nation. SUBURBAN OFFICE Although rents are not increasing dramatically, they are still maintaining the positive momentum of the past year. Vacancy is surprisingly tight for this suburban office market. Absorption is very slow. Employment growth is flat. WAREHOUSE Vacancy is stuck at very high rates and absorption is weak. Still, rents have shown consistent increases over the past several quarters. On the positive side, there is no new construction planned to add inventory until the market moves further into its recovery cycle. RETAIL Two factors dragging this retail market down are the stagnate population and job growth. The good news is that the market inventory is reasonably good and not excessive, household spending is excellent, and occupancy rates are among the nation's best. APARTMENT With slowing employment and population growth not pressing demand, it's no surprise that the market rate for rent increases has stalled. The good news is that vacancy rates are relatively low and there is no significant development planned. *Reflects the Nassau-Suffolk market only. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 20
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 Metro Market Facts V. DEMOGRAPHICS A. Metro Population NEW YORK NASSAU-SUFFOLK UNITED STATES Population 2005: 11,482,600 2,808,100 296,410,400 % Growth 2000 2005: 1.6% 2.0% 5.3% % Growth 1990 2000: 8.8% 5.8% 13.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. B. County Population Growth % GROWTH % GROWTH COUNTY 2005 POPULATION 1990-2000 2000-2005 New York Nassau 1,333,137 3.8 (0.1) Suffolk 1,474,927 7.8 3.9 Bronx 1,357,589 10.9 1.9 Kings 2,486,235 7.2 0.8 New York 1,593,200 3.5 3.6 Putnam 100,507 14.5 5.0 Queens 2,241,600 14.3 0.5 Richmond 464,573 17.6 4.7 Rockland 292,916 8.3 2.1 Westchester 940,807 5.9 1.9 New Jersey Bergen 902,561 7.3 2.1 Hudson 603,521 10.2 (0.9) Passaic 499,0607 4.3 2.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. C. Household & Population Composition NEW YORK METRO NASSAU-SUFFOLK UNITED STATES METRO* Median Household Size: 2.7 3.0 2.7 Median Age: 35.6 38.3 35.8 % of Population Under 5 7.2 7.2 7.5 % of Population 35-54 29.4 29.4 28.0 % of Population Over 64 13.4 13.4 12.8 *Average of U.S. metropolitan areas, not entire U.S. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 21
V. DEMOGRAPHICS D. State Population Growth ACTUAL PROJECTED 2005 % GROWTH STATE % GROWTH STATE POPULATION 1990-2005 RANKING* 2005-2025 RANKING* New York 19,254,600 7.0 43 1.5 46 United States 296,410,400 19.1 N/A 17.9 N/A *Ranking of all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, with the #1 ranking representing the highest state population percentage growth. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. E. Area Cities With At Least 50,000 Residents % GROWTH % GROWTH CITY 2004 POPULATION 1990-2000 2000-2004 Babylon* 216,890 4.9 2.2 Bayonne 60,748 0.6 (1.7) Brookhaven* 471,291 10.3 4.8 Clifton 79,944 9.9 1.0 Greenburgh* 89,991 3.8 3.1 Hempstead 53,145 15.9 (0.1) Huntington* 199,207 2.2 1.8 Islip* 331,077 8.0 2.3 Jersey City 239,079 5.1 (0.4) Mt. Vernon 68,321 2.2 (0.2) New Rochelle 72,985 7.3 1.0 New York 8,104,079 9.5 1.1 Passaic 68,662 15.8 1.1 Paterson 150,869 (5.5) 1.0 Smithtown* 119,370 2.3 3.0 Southhampton* 58,498 22.2 6.3 Union City 66,167 15.5 (1.3) Wayne* 55,402 15.2 2.2 White Plains 56,509 9.4 6.0 Yonkers 197,126 4.4 0.4 *These communities are technically defined as townships. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 22
V. DEMOGRAPHICS F. Metropolitan % Population Gain (1990-2005) POPULATION GROWTH (% Gain/Loss, April 1990-July 2005) Las Vegas 126.2% Phoenix 72.7 Austin 71.6 Atlanta 60.2 Raleigh-Durham 58.0 Orlando 57.8 Riverside-San Bernardino 51.0 Charlotte 48.5 Dallas-Ft. Worth 47.2 West Palm Beach 46.9 Fort Lauderdale 41.6 Denver 40.8 Houston 40.2 Portland 37.5 Salt Lake City 35.8 Nashville 35.7 Sacramento 35.5 Jacksonville 34.9 Albuquerque 33.1 Tampa-St. Petersburg 28.0 Indianapolis 26.8 Washington 26.5 Seattle 25.2 Columbus 24.4 Orange County 24.0 Minneapolis-St. Paul 23.8 Greenville-Spartanburg 22.8% Miami 22.7 Central New Jersey 20.0 UNITED STATES 19.1 Oklahoma City 19.1 Kansas City 19.0 Memphis 18.1 San Diego 17.4 Oakland-East Bay 17.0 Chicago 15.4 San Jose 14.4 St. Louis 12.4 Cincinnati 12.2 Los Angeles 12.1 Baltimore 11.5 New York 10.4 Newark-No. New Jersey 9.8 Boston 9.5 Honolulu 8.3 Nassau-Suffolk 7.6 Philadelphia 7.1 Detroit 6.6 Milwaukee 6.3 Hartford 5.7 San Francisco 5.1 Cleveland 1.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 23
V. DEMOGRAPHICS G. International Immigration to Metropolitan Areas TOTAL INTERNATIONAL IMMIGRATION: (2001-2004) (000s) New York/Nassau-Suffolk 570.5 Los Angeles 400.7 Chicago 222.7 Dallas-Ft. Worth 184.4 Houston 166.7 Miami 165.7 Washington 156.7 Atlanta 114.3 Orange County 111.6 Phoenix 106.3 Boston 105.1 San Jose 102.3 Oakland-East Bay 85.2 San Francisco 72.4 San Diego 69.9 Seattle 67.4 Denver 65.6 Central New Jersey 65.0 Fort Lauderdale 65.0 Riverside-San Bernardino 62.2 Philadelphia 60.0 Newark-No. New Jersey 59.0 Detroit 57.3 Minneapolis-St. Paul 46.4 Portland 44.2 (000s) Las Vegas 41.8 Sacramento 40.0 Orlando 39.9 Austin 37.5 Tampa-St. Petersburg 36.9 Raleigh-Durham 35.3 West Palm Beach 32.7 Salt Lake City 29.1 Charlotte 26.9 Baltimore 21.2 Columbus 19.4 Kansas City 18.5 St. Louis 17.6 Honolulu 17.0 Nashville 16.1 Hartford 15.9 Milwaukee 15.8 Cleveland 15.4 Oklahoma City 13.1 Indianapolis 13.1 Cincinnati 11.1 Greenville-Spartanburg 9.1 Albuquerque 8.8 Memphis 8.5 Jacksonville 8.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 24
V. DEMOGRAPHICS H. Domestic Migration to Metropolitan Areas TOTAL DOMESTIC MIGRATION: (2001-2004) (000s) Riverside-San Bernardino 325.8 Phoenix 194.4 Las Vegas 168.5 Tampa-St. Petersburg 145.6 Atlanta 124.1 Orlando 119.8 Sacramento 118.7 West Palm Beach 72.4 Dallas-Ft. Worth 68.5 Jacksonville 63.9 Charlotte 62.1 Raleigh-Durham 49.9 Houston 48.8 Austin 47.4 Portland 33.4 Fort Lauderdale 30.7 Nashville 28.6 Indianapolis 27.1 Albuquerque 19.3 Kansas City 12.7 Central New Jersey 11.0 Greenville-Spartanburg 9.8 Oklahoma City 6.6 Columbus 5.3 Hartford 4.4 (000s) Baltimore (0.9) Memphis (2.5) Cincinnati (9.0) St. Louis (11.3) Minneapolis-St. Paul (12.2) Washington (16.5) Denver (20.1) Honolulu (20.6) Seattle (31.2) Salt Lake City (32.8) Milwaukee (33.5) Philadelphia (34.6) Cleveland (49.2) Newark-No. New Jersey (57.6) San Diego (59.2) Orange County (91.5) Oakland-East Bay (97.2) Detroit (106.8) Miami (126.1) San Francisco (146.7) Boston (167.4) San Jose (174.3) Chicago (257.9) Los Angeles (379.6) New York/Nassau-Suffolk (800.7) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 25
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS A. Job Formation New York Metropolitan Area Employment Growth (Loss) % 12-Month (Ending in March): 1.4% Total Number of Net New Jobs, 12 Months (Ending in March): 69,100 % Unemployed, March 2006: 5.2% % Unemployed, 12 Months Before: 5.2% National Employment Growth (Loss) % 12-Month (Ending in March): 1.6% % Unemployed, March 2006: 4.8% % Unemployed, March 2005: 5.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. B. Economic Base Employment By Sectors % GROWTH FROM PRIOR YEAR % OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT SECTOR METRO NATIONAL METRO NATIONAL Services 2.2 1.9 34.1 29.0 Business Services 1.3 2.8 14.9 12.7 Financial Activities 2.8 2.3 11.1 6.1 Government 0.4 0.7 15.2 16.6 Retail Trade 1.6 0.9 8.8 11.2 Wholesale Trade 1.0 1.7 4.8 4.3 Transportation/Public Utilities 0.6 1.1 3.6 3.7 Manufacturing (5.0) (0.4) 4.3 10.5 Construction & Mining 3.2 4.5 3.4 5.3 Note: The Department of Labor recently revised the industry classification system (from SIC to NAICS). One of the most significant changes was the establishment of "business services" as a separate category (instead of a sub-set of the "services" sector). In addition, the "FIRE" sector is now known as "financial activities". Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 26
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS C. Job Formation Nassau-Suffolk Metropolitan Area Employment Growth (Loss) % 12-Month (Ending in March): 0.7% Total Number of Net New Jobs, 12 Months (Ending in March): 8,600 % Unemployed, March 2006: 4.1% % Unemployed, 12 Months Before: 4.2% National Employment Growth (Loss) % 12-Month (Ending in March): 1.6% % Unemployed, March 2006: 4.8% % Unemployed, March 2005: 5.4% D. Economic Base Employment By Sectors % GROWTH FROM PRIOR YEAR % OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT SECTOR METRO NATIONAL METRO NATIONAL Services 0.9 1.9 30.3 29.0 Business Services 2.7 2.8 12.7 12.7 Financial Activities (0.7) 2.3 6.6 6.1 Government 0.2 0.7 16.5 16.6 Retail Trade 0.4 0.9 12.9 11.2 Wholesale Trade (1.1) 1.7 5.8 4.3 Transportation/Public Utilities 1.4 1.1 3.0 3.7 Manufacturing (0.6) (0.4) 7.1 10.5 Construction & Mining 2.6 4.5 5.1 5.3 Note: The Department of Labor recently revised the industry classification system (from SIC to NAICS). One of the most significant changes was the establishment of "business services" as a separate category (instead of a sub-set of the "services" sector). In addition, the "FIRE" sector is now known as "financial activities". Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 27
VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS E. Metropolitan % Total Employment Gain (10-Year Change) JOB GROWTH (% Gain/Loss, March 1996-March 2006) Las Vegas 70.8% Riverside-San Bernardino 54.2 Orlando 44.1 Phoenix 43.2 West Palm Beach 40.1 Sacramento 32.7 Austin 32.5 Fort Lauderdale 30.5 San Diego 30.5 Washington 28.6 Tampa-St. Petersburg 28.0 Orange County 27.7 Jacksonville 24.7 Salt Lake City 23.7 Charlotte 23.6 Dallas-Ft. Worth 23.2 Atlanta 22.6 Houston 22.3 Raleigh-Durham 21.0 Central New Jersey 19.8 Nashville 19.5 Seattle 19.1 Denver 18.2 Albuquerque 17.9 Oakland-East Bay 16.0 Oklahoma City 15.9 Indianapolis 15.5% Portland 15.2 Baltimore 14.6 UNITED STATES 13.6 Nassau-Suffolk 13.5 Columbus 13.1 Minneapolis-St. Paul 12.6 Miami 12.4 Philadelphia 11.8 Cincinnati 11.6 Honolulu 11.1 Memphis 10.7 Greenville-Spartanburg 10.1 Newark-No. New Jersey 9.0 New York 8.5 Kansas City 8.2 Los Angeles 7.4 St. Louis 7.2 Boston 6.7 Hartford 3.8 Chicago 3.3 Milwaukee 1.9 San Francisco 0.9 Cleveland (0.5) San Jose (0.9) Detroit (2.5) Source: U.S. Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 28
VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS F. Average Annual Wages Select Occupations METRO % OF NATIONAL POSITION AVERAGE NATIONAL AVG. AVERAGE New York PMSA Accountant $72,130 126.8% $56,880 Secretary $31,960 117.7% $27,160 Computer Systems Analyst $76,600 112.0% $68,370 Computer Programmer $74,110 112.4% $65,910 Electrical Engineer $83,200 112.1% $74,220 Machinist $31,910 91.7% $34,790 Nassau-Suffolk PMSA Accountant $64,610 113.6% $56,880 Secretary $30,580 112.6% $27,160 Computer Systems Analyst $72,950 106.7% $68,370 Computer Programmer $63,460 96.3% $65,910 Electrical Engineer $83,700 112.8% $74,220 Machinist $35,280 101.4% $34,790 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2004. G. Production Wages & Union Membership AVERAGE NATIONAL % WORKERS NATIONAL ANNUAL WAGE* RANK IN UNION RANK (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) New York $29,430 22 25.3% 1 U.S. Average $29,280 -- 12.5% -- *Average annual wage is for production workers only. The #1 ranking represents the highest average wage and the largest percentage of unionized workers. Source(s): U.S. Dept. of Labor/wage figures (2004); U.S. Census Bureau/union membership (2004). Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 29
VI. EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS H. State Workers Compensation Costs Workers Compensation Costs The average cost per $100 of payroll (2005) 2005 2004 RATE* INDEX** RATING*** RATING New York $4.47 1.09 32 37 *This is the rate for a prototypical manufacturer, based on the manual rate, taxes and assessments, payroll distribution, premium discounts, experience rating, and any other weighted adjustments that were made in order to produce a non-biased countrywide comparison. **The base rate (or national average) for this Index is $4.12. ***The rating is based on an analysis of 45 states with #1 representing the lowest average rate. Source: Actuarial & Technical Solutions, Inc. (516) 471-8655. I. State Minimum Wage/Overtime Status Current State Minimum Wage* $5.15 State Overtime Standard** 40-hour week *The federal minimum wage increased to $5.15 in September 1997. The federal rate sets the floor under which states cannot go. Some states, however, have lower rates for a minority of workers who are not covered by the Fair Labor Standards Act. Some states also have temporary lower rates and subminimum wages for certain groups of workers, e.g., minors and/or beginning employees. **Federal law stipulates the payment of overtime to all private employees except supervisors, salaried professionals and unionized workers after 40 hours of labor in a given week. Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 30
25 20 15 10 5 0 Metro Market Outlook New York 1Q 2006 VII. EDUCATION A. Educational Levels % OF ADULTS % OF ADULTS WHO GRADUATED WHO GRADUATED FROM 4-YEAR FROM HIGH SCHOOL COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY New York PMSA 78.6 30.8 Nassau-Suffolk 91.5 32.3 U.S. Average 84.1 26.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, March 2002. B. Graduate Education Academic Rankings of Local Graduate Programs BIOLOGICAL GENERAL UNIVERSITY SCIENCES ENGINEERING SCIENCES/OTHER Albert Einstein College of Medicine Physiology (17) -- -- Columbia Biochemistry (11) Electrical (15) Chemistry (7) Developmental Biology (19) Economics (12) Genetics (12) Mathematics (10) Neuroscience (6) Physics (12) Physiology (10) NYU Pharmacology (14) -- Computer Science (17) Physiology (14) Economics (17) Mathematics (8) Rockefeller Univ. Developmental Biology (2) -- -- Neuroscience (13) SUNY-Stony Brook Ecology (10) -- Mathematics (20) Source: National Academy of Sciences, Research-Doctorate Programs in the United States, 1995 (this report is updated every ten years). The NAS reviewed more than 3,600 doctoral programs in 41 fields at 274 universities for the 1993 academic year. Criteria included the academic quality of each school s faculty, the effectiveness of the school s teaching, and the level of its research. For programs that were ranked at 100 or more schools, we have listed the top 20 universities; for programs that were ranked at fewer than 100 schools, we have listed the top 10. The top universities are shown with their respective national ratings for each discipline. We have included 21 of 41 fields. Please note that the NAS did not include graduate business programs in its study. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 31
VII. EDUCATION C. Educational Expenditures and Salaries STUDENT: PER-PUPIL TEACHER TEACHER EXPENDITURES RANK SALARIES RANK RATIO RANK (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) New York $12,325 2 $55,181 5 12.6 47 U.S. Average $8,248 -- $46,752 -- 15.8 -- These figures represent statewide (and national) averages and are based on actual enrollment. The rankings include all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia. For expenditures and salaries, #1 represents the highest dollar amount; #1 also represents the highest student teacher ratio. Source: National Education Association, Rankings of the States, June 2005 Update. D. University R&D Expenditures FEDERAL R&D % OF TOTAL R&D % OF EXPENDITURES LEADING EXPENDITURES LEADING ($$ IN MIL.) SCHOOL* ($$ IN MIL.) SCHOOL* Columbia $137.1 63.8 $158.4 59.1 City Univ. of NY $2.0 0.9 $2.6 1.0 Fordham University $1.5 0.7 $2.0 0.7 NY Medical College $9.5 4.4 $12.1 4.5 NYU $73.1 34.0 $97.5 36.4 Polytechnic University $5.9 2.7 $8.9 3.3 Rockefeller University $34.9 16.2 $65.6 24.5 SUNY-Health Sci. Ctr. $12.2 5.7 $21.3 7.9 SUNY-Stony Brook $46.8 21.8 $70.5 26.3 Yeshiva University $57.4 26.7 $72.7 27.1 *The percentage column reflects the amount spent by the local institution(s) relative to the amount expended at the top spending institution in each of the two categories. Source: National Academy of Sciences, Research-Doctorate Programs in the United States, 1995 (this report is updated every ten years). These amounts reflect the average annual expenditures from 1986 to 1992 (based on 1988 dollars). Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 32
VIII. HOUSING & LIVING COSTS A. Overall Cost of Living (Index) Metropolitan Cost of Living Index* (4th Qtr. 2005) 210 175 140 204.3 105 146.6 70 100.0 35 Manhattan Queens U.S. Metro *The ACCRA Cost of Living Index measures relative prices for consumer goods and services in participating areas. Housing is an important component of the Index. The average for all participating areas is 100. Each area s number is read as a percentage of that average. Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index, Louisville, KY, (502) 897-2890. B. Metropolitan Housing Permits Multifamily (5+ Units) Nassau Suffolk Multifamily (5+ Units) New York-Wayne-White Plains 24.2% 25.8% 41 5,774 33 4,591 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 05 Mar 06 Local Data: Figures represent total permits granted year-to-date in the Nassau-Suffolk and New York PMSAs. U.S. Data: The percent changes in single-family and multifamily permits nationwide were 2.4% and 19.3%, respectively. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 33
VIII. HOUSING & LIVING COSTS C. Homeownership % of Households Owning Residences (2005) 100 80 85.7% 60 40 55.9% 67.4% 20 New York U.S. Metro Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Homeownership rates represent metropolitan averages as of year-end 2005. D. Single Family Home Costs First Quarter 2006 Median Home Price (000s) % Change From Year Before $528.7 $475.3 15.8% 10.3% $217.9 6.4% New York Metro Nassau- Suffolk Metro U.S. Metro New York Metro Nassau- Suffolk Metro U.S. Metro Source: National Association of Realtors. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 34
VIII. HOUSING & LIVING COSTS E. Local Utility Costs COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC INDUSTRIAL ELECTRIC RESIDENTIAL TOTAL (10,000 KWH PER MO.) (650,000 KWH PER MO.) (1,000 KWH PER MO.) New York City $1,654 $76,722 $164 Nassau-Suffolk $1,300 $54,297 $142 U.S. Average $844 $36,401 $87 These numbers reflect the bundled rates (i.e., the combined cost of generation, transmission, delivery, and any transfer fees) that were in effect in January 2004. The kwh per mo. figures are based on consumption rather than demand. Source: Edison Electric Institute, Typical Bills and Average Rates Report, Winter 2004. F. Health Insurance Coverage & Costs ANNUAL PER CAPITA % OF POP. COVERED HEALTH CARE BY HEALTH INSURANCE RANK EXPENDITURES RANK (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) New York State 84.9 35 $4,994 3 U.S. 84.4 -- $4,037 -- The #1 ranking represents the highest percentage of population covered by health insurance and the highest per capita personal health care expenditures. Source: Health Insurance: Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau (2003). Health Care Expenditures: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (1998). Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 35
IX. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS A. Metropolitan Median Household Income 60000 50000 40000 $54,492 30000 20000 $35,625 $39,985 10000 New York Nassau-Suffolk U.S. Metro* Market Rank** New York 54 Nassau-Suffolk 4 *The U.S. Metro figure represents the median income of 323 metropolitan areas; $38,035 is the median income nationwide. **Ranking of 57 metropolitan areas, with the #1 ranking representing the highest median household income. Source: Sales & Marketing Management: 2003 Survey of Buying Power. B. High-Tech Industry Employment HIGH-TECH NUMBER OF NUMBER OF EMPLOYMENT ESTABLISHMENTS EMPLOYEES GROWTH (2001) RANK (2002) RANK (2001-2002) RANK (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) (OUT OF 51) New York State 20,374 3 329,749 3 (7.9%) 33 The #1 ranking represents the highest amount in each category. Source: Cyberstates 2003, American Electronics Association. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 36
IX. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS C. Metropolitan Area Patents Patents Per 100,000 Residents (1999) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19.6 New York 28.0 Nassau Suffolk 30.8 U.S. Metro Market Rank* New York 40 Nassau-Suffolk 31 *Ranking of 52 metropolitan areas, with the #1 ranking representing the largest number of per capita patents. Source: Dept. of Commerce, Patent & Trademark Office, April 2000. D. Major Airport Activity TOTAL % CHANGE NATIONAL WORLD (2005) FROM 2004 RANK* RANK* JFK INTERNATIONAL Passengers (in millions) 40.6 8.2% 8 15 Cargo (in thousands 1,649.1 (3.3%) 6 14 metric tons) LA GUARDIA Passengers (in millions) 25.8 5.6% 21 40 Cargo (in thousands 23.9 (10.4%) 80 242 metric tons) *Ranking of 142 national and 843 international airports, with the #1 ranking representing the largest number of passengers and the largest amount of cargo. Source: Airports Council International, Geneva, Switzerland. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 37
IX. OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS E. International Trade International Trade Volume IMPORT EXPORT TOTAL New York (Part of the New York, NY Customs District) January-March 2006 ($$$ in billions) $44.9 $24.4 $69.3 % Change (from year ago) 9.3% 11.7% 10.1% Total U.S January-March 2006 ($$$ in billions) $435.1 $244.8 $679.9 % Change (from year ago) 14.3% 14.2% 14.2% Source: Dept. of Commerce, Foreign Trade Division. F. Gross State Product % CHANGE 1994 2004 1994-2004 New York Ranking* 2 2 -- (out of 51) New York Total $627.1 $843.1 34.4% ($$$ in billions) U.S. Total ($$$ in billions) $7,538.5 $10,720.3 42.2% *Ranking of all 50 states (plus the District of Columbia), with the #1 ranking representing the highest dollar amount. Note: While the dollar amounts are no longer inflation-adjusted, they are chain-weighted to make them comparable to the specified 1996 base period. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Global Real Analytics, LLC, 505 Montgomery Street, 6th Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 38