December 2008 Newsletter Sean Greco Realtor, CIPS, CDPE, CLHMS, GREEN Certified, TRC Designations and Certifications are explained at the end of the newsletter Buy the Beach Realty, Cell 786 877 9220, buybeach.com Greetings from South Florida, I hope this email finds you well and looking forward to comparing this month s data with last month s data to spot trends and decide for yourself the status of the local Real Estate market, of which I work within 24/7. You are receiving this because we have been in touch about Real Estate here in the South Florida area, most likely property at the Beach. As you read the newsletter from month to month it will contain data that will help you to analyze market conditions. In addition, it is an unobtrusive way to stay in touch with you regarding my Real Estate Consulting Services. Please remember to view the Trends and Graphs to analyze where the market has been and make predictions on where you think the market is heading: http://www.miamipropertiesandparadise.com/professional11.shtml New this month on the website is the following link that will take you to a new segment that I have titled Shiny Pennies. In the course of continually researching and familiarizing myself with the inventory of the very localized market in which I practice, along with the banking relationships I have cultivated, I have been able to do a lot of the research and legwork recognizing the best potential values in my target markets, or in some instances in other specific buildings or locations where there is excellent value for the product. Please understand that this list is by no means all inclusive, as there are certain brokers whom do not allow advertising of their listings on the internet, and my banking relationships allow me to realize certain properties that are for sale that might not show up in our MLS. So please don t hesitate to contact me directly for any such information. Please remember to keep up to date on distressed properties and click here to gather information on how to go about obtaining these bargains. The below chart is data from the past 90 days for Condominiums, ending 11/30/08. The data is taken from South East Florida s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for the cities and townships of Miami Beach (South Beach, Mid Beach, & North Beach), Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, and Fisher Island. The paragraph below the data will explain in more detail what is included in this analysis. Please don t hesitate to pose any questions you may have, or simply give me a call or send me an email to discuss Real Estate in general. This data will help to analyze market conditions from month to month. Price Range Active Closed Listings % Listing % Sold Avg DOM Average Discount New vs Resale $0 - $199,999 892 79 219 24.55% 8.86% 144 8% 3 vs. 76 $200,000 - $249,999 427 24 82 19.20% 5.62% 165 13% 0 vs. 24 $250,000 - $299,999 456 29 114 25.00% 6.36% 162 10% 5 vs. 24 $300,000 - $349,999 286 20 83 29.02% 6.99% 114 5% 9 vs. 11 $350,000 - $399,999 374 19 91 24.33% 5.08% 146 7% 10 vs. 9 $400,000 - $499,999 442 36 101 22.85% 8.14% 148 12% 16 vs. 20 $500,000 - $599,999 334 20 87 26.05% 5.99% 170 10% 12 vs. 8 $600,000 - $699,999 257 14 46 17.90% 5.45% 196 6% 9 vs. 5 $700,000 - $799,999 174 7 30 17.24% 4.02% 234 6% 5 vs. 2 $800,000 - $899,999 139 5 24 17.27% 3.60% 209 10% 3 vs. 2 $900,000 - $1,179,999 176 9 31 17.61% 5.11% 113 11% 7 vs. 2 $1,180,000 - $1,399,999 157 8 34 21.66% 5.10% 237 17% 7 vs. 1 $1,400,000 - $1,799,999 154 10 25 16.23% 6.49% 95 13% 10 vs. 0
$1,800,000 - $2,199,999 91 5 7 7.69% 5.49% 140 13% 5 vs. 0 $2,200,000 - $2,699,999 101 2 18 17.82% 1.98% 239 4% 2 vs. 0 $2,700,000 - $3,199,999 49 3 5 10.20% 6.12% 329 12% 3 vs. 0 $3,200,000 - $3,999,999 67 0 8 11.94% 0.00% n/a n/a n/a $4,000,000 - $4,999,999 46 1 2 4.35% 2.17% 197 10% 1 vs. 0 $5,000,000 + 86 1 12 13.95% 1.16% 140 38% 1 vs. 0 Totals: 4708 292 1019 21.64% 6.20% 177 11% 108 vs. 184 As you can see, I have broken the data into price ranges, and then you can see the amount of Active condos for sale, how many Real Buyers Closed on a condo for sale, how many of those listing agreements unsold, then further calculated what percent of the Active condos for sale and Sold. Then I calculated the Average Days on Market (Avg DOM), which is the amount of days it took the condos that sold to obtain a Real Buyer. Then I show the Average Discount, which is the percentage the Listed Price was discounted to the Actual Sale Price for all Closed Sales. The last column is for Closed Sales that were newer construction, which I considered to be anything built after 1995, versus older buildings built before 1995. I track this data for Condominiums and Single Family Homes separately due to their differences. I also track the data for the more luxurious buildings of South Beach, please feel free to email or call for that data. The next set of data below is the same information for Single Family Homes. The one difference is that the last column is the Average Age of the homes Sold. Listings % Listing Avg DOM Average Discount Price Range Active Closed % Sold $0 - $399,999 22 7 1 4.55% 31.82% 76 5% 1943 $400,000 - $499,999 37 3 11 29.73% 8.11% 132 17% 1949 $500,000 - $649,999 53 2 15 28.30% 3.77% 66 11% 1953 $650,000 - $799,999 47 2 13 27.66% 4.26% 197 10% 1950 $800,000 - $999,999 60 3 19 31.67% 5.00% 67 6% 1948 $1,000,000 - $1,299,999 51 1 7 13.73% 1.96% 42 11% 1940 $1,300,000 - $1,599,999 54 1 14 25.93% 1.85% 154 7% 1930 $1,600,000 - $1,999,999 47 1 10 21.28% 2.13% 4 6% 2003 $2,000,000 - $2,999,999 67 1 8 11.94% 1.49% 1020 8% 2007 $3,000,000 - $3,999,999 44 1 5 11.36% 2.27% 610 12% 1932 $4,000,000 - $4,999,999 23 2 4 17.39% 8.70% 384 22% 1954 $5,000,000 - $5,999,999 18 0 2 11.11% 0.00% n/a n/a n/a $6,000,000 - $6,999,999 12 0 0 0.00% 0.00% n/a n/a n/a $7,000,000 - $9,999,999 19 0 1 5.26% 0.00% n/a n/a n/a $10,000,000 + 30 1 3 10.00% 3.33% 63 11% 1998 Totals: 584 25 113 19.35% 4.28% 235 10% 1959 Average Age Don t forget to look at the overall data I have been collecting and determine for yourself what trends, etc. you see; please click here to take you to some graphs that should prove to be very insightful: http://www.miamipropertiesandparadise.com/professional11.shtml Below are very brief summaries on key issues that have a direct affect on South Florida Real Estate: PROPERTY TAXES & INSURANCE: As a property owner or potential property owner, I urge you to keep up to date on the various progress, legislation, and proposed legislation in order to help you better understand how these important issues affect you; please see the below link that will take you to the Florida Association of Realtors Legislative Center, which will help to explain the numerous moving parts concerning both issues: http://www.floridarealtors.org/legislativecenter/topinitiatives/index.cfm
SIGNS OF LIFE FOR CONDO SALES: Miami s latest building boom is creating 22,000 condo units in the city s urban center, and the question is: How many have actually sold? According to a new study, the numbers are as follows: 17,299 new condos have come on the market 12,169 condos have closed, at an average price of $405,966 totaling an estimated $5 billion in sales 3,999 more new condos are expected to come onto the market by the end of 2008 1,439 more new condos are expected in 2009 The report tracked data for the area covered between the Julia Tuttle and Rickenbacker Causeways from North to South; and from I 95 to Biscayne Bay from West to East. This swath of land has seen more development than any corner in Florida and is a closely watched sector in the broader housing market. Sales have been better than many observers expected for a downtown area often viewed as ground zero for real estate speculation and excess, and it highlights Miami s ongoing urban revitalization, fueled by people, builders, and investors returning to the city center. With few new residential projects planned, the next step is completing the structures and getting the units sold. Home sales have picked up for 3 months in a row with the most recent numbers showing Miami Dade County Condos; sales up 1 percent year over year in October; prices down 26 percent for that same timeframe; and inventory down 2 percent for that same timeframe. Despite ongoing buzz about vulture funds trolling the real estate market for bargains, the closings have largely occurred without such funds swooping in to buy up blocks of condos at a discount. The rare examples of such bulk deals have been developer led. Indeed, the coming units could portend better deals for buyers and added pressure on downtown buildings with outstanding loans and unsold units. Source: The Miami Herald 11/21/08, 11/25/08; FAR and EWM Please contact me should you want to discuss in more detail some of the specific projects where there might be a better opportunity for distressed sales of multiple units. QUICK HEADLINES: Miami Mayor Manny Diaz was named among 24 people honored as America s Best Leaders for 2008 in U.S. News & World Report posted 11/20/08. Source: The Miami Herald 11/22/08 Miami hopes to benefit from the Bollywood effect with the most recent blockbuster to hit Indian movie screens, Dostana. The entire film was shot in South Florida and a study by the British film agency said New Zealand saw Indian arrivals grow 800 percent in the 4 years after the Bollywood hit Say You Love Me was filmed in Queenstown. And Switzerland became India s top European destination after a string of Bollywood films used the Alps as a backdrop. Source: The Miami Herald 11/20/08 Monopoly: Miami and the Beaches Edition join previous editions celebrating Las Vegas, New York and Boston; Lincoln Road and Ocean Drive getting the coveted spots typically reserved for Park Place and Boardwalk. The game can be purchased at www.monopolymiami.com and after 30,000 games are sold, USAOPOLY will retire the edition. A portion of the proceeds goes to the Miami Design Preservation League, a nonprofit group dedicated to saving local landmarks. Source: The Miami Herald 11/12/08 As highlighted in my last newsletter, the Fontainebleau had its Grand Opening the weekend of 11/14/08 and what a spectacle it was. Numerous celebrities were on hand to reopen the famed resort, designed by well renowned architect Morris Lapidus. The Victoria s Secret Fashion Show led the festivities and can be viewed on CBS on 12/3/08 at 10:00pm EST. It truly was an impressive milestone in the rebirth of this luxury resort. There are units for sale in the condo hotel towers, please click here to take a look: Fontainebleau Hotel condos SAVVY BUYERS ARE PROFITING: Even in this era of toxic mortgages and tighter credit, savvy buyers are finding distressed properties and turning them into income producers. Unlike in the boom days of easy credit, the key is to buy at a good price and deal in cash or a significant down payment. As bleak as the home mortgage situation appears, there is opportunity for investors to capitalize on the fire sale prices many foreclosure properties represent. In simple terms,
bank owned properties are considered a liability rather than an asset by those holding them. Banks not only want to sell them, they need to sell them to keep their balance sheets positive. A bank is a motivated seller. Bank of America spokesperson Terry H. Francisco said his bank has done some auctions in the past, but they found that by reducing prices aggressively through a broker they can sell the listed property more efficiently. Plus, one disadvantage of auctions is that many properties aren t available for interior inspection, which could cost the buyer in the long run. Source: The Miami Herald 11/9/08 For some different points on short sales, foreclosures and the bargains that present themselves on a weekly basis, please click here. And remember to bookmark the newest portion of my website, the Shiny Pennies. GOOGLE GROWING IN LATIN AMERICA: Google in the Latin America region represents the fastest growing segment in revenues and number of searches for the Internet Company, based in Mountain View, California. While Google s growth slowed in the 3 rd quarter, the company reported a 26 percent jump in net income. More significantly, 50 percent of its revenue is coming from its overseas operation. Google began its expansion into Latin America 3 years ago, attracted by the growing infrastructure of high speed Internet access, the popularity of e commerce and the certain unique habits of Latin American users. The 1 st step was the purchase of Brazil s Akwan Information Technologies in July 2005. Akwan, based in Belo Horizonte, offered search services to Brazilian companies and became Google s research and development center for Latin America. In November of 2005, Google announced it was opening operations centers in Sao Paulo and Mexico City. In April 2007, Google opened an office in Buenos Aires, which was billed by the corporation as the 3 rd largest headquarters of Google business development in the world, after those in California and Ireland. The company also now has a presence in Chile and Colombia and employs about 1,000 people in the region. Source: The Miami Herald 11/24/08 Another place where you can view some International research more specific to Real Estate, please go to the following link and you will find a 2008 NAR Profile of International Home Buying Activity and 2007 NAR Profile of International Home Buying Activity in Florida, as well as some other resources: http://www.miamipropertiesandparadise.com/professional37.shtml. Exchange rates play a vital role in Real Estate related decisions for foreign buyers or sellers, a good source to track currency exchange rates is: http://www.xe.com/ucc/ INTEREST RATES & RELATED NEWS: Please make sure to stay in touch with your mortgage broker or bank to keep up to date on interest rates, as this can directly affect many Real Estate related decisions. This is the website to the Federal Reserve s Monetary Policy section: http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/default.htm BRICKELL KEY DEVELOPER BUYS UP MORE PRIME LAND: Swire Properties, a prominent but conservative builder in Miami known for the purchase of much of the island now called Brickell Key, closed an all cash deal last month to acquire nearly 6 acres of prime downtown land west of Brickell Avenue. The price tag for the 2 vacant parcels straddling S. Miami Avenue was $41.3 million. It is one of a string of recent deals for raw land in the Brickell area. An Alabama developer recently paid $6.27 million for about half an acre across from the Brickell Metrorail stop with plans to build an Embassy Suites hotel. Separately, a Miami group spent $22 million for another roughly half acre parcel next to the Four Seasons Tower on Brickell Avenue. Swire Properties recently acquired 2 block property sits just north of Mary Brickell Village, a retail and restaurant outpost that s done much to revitalize the formerly sleepy financial district. Newly constructed condos, hotels and under construction office towers are nearby. A Metromover stop is on one side of the property and the Metrorail runs along the other; access to I 95 is close. It s as good a development site as there is in South Florida, said Peter Harrison, senior VP at Transwestern Commercial Services in Miami. The move comes as other
developers have assembled large swaths of land in the urban core for building when the grim market brightens again. What speculators lost is now the opportunity for prudent investors and developers, said real estate analyst Michael Cannon. It happens in every real estate cycle and is happening again now. Source: The Miami Herald 11/13/08 That is all for this month s newsletter and I welcome suggestions, feedback, and of course I am here if you or anyone you know is thinking of buying or selling property here in South Florida. If you wish to further discuss any of the above issues in more detail, or any other Real Estate related topics, please don t hesitate to call or email. I would like to leave you with 3 quotes I feel are more relevant than ever, the first 2 by Investor and Philanthropist Warren Buffet, and the third you will hear quite a bit over the coming months: Price is what you pay. Value is what you get Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful Chaos brings opportunities DESIGNATIONS AND CERTIFICATIONS: These Designations and Certifications were specifically chosen by me to give my effort, time, and money, as well as meeting the required experience because I feel that this shows my dedication to continually learning and evolving as a Real Estate Consultant. Plus, the market that I practice in is a natural one to achieve such designations to separate myself from the other professionals within my field. Keep in mind these not only prove education but also transactional experience in order to obtain the designations and certifications. Realtor Membership in the largest professional association known as the National Association of Realtors or N.A.R. C.I.P.S. Certified International Property Specialist, member of CIPS network; Designation shows education and transactional experience in the International Arena of Real Estate. C.D.P.E. Certified Distressed Property Expert, member of Distressed Property Institute; Designation shows education and experience in the continually evolving and complicated short sale and foreclosure markets. C.L.H.M.S. Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist, member of Million Dollar Guild; Designation shows education and transactional experience in the top tier level within my market, Million Dollar Guild is the highest level of membership with proven experience in numerous $1M+ transactions. GREEN Certified also known as GCREP GL, Green Certified Real Estate Professional Green Leadership; Certification shows education and leadership within the Green Real Estate Industry. T.R.C. Transnational Referral Certification; Certification shows education in researching Real Estate throughout the world and allows me to refer and to be referred from 28 International Real Estate Organizations in the Global marketplace. If you wish to be removed from this mailing list, please REPLY to this email placing REMOVE in the subject line.