October Report on Nevada s Housing Market This series of reports on Nevada s Housing Market is presented by the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. These reports provide monthly updates on housing market trends for stakeholders throughout Nevada.
Nevada s Housing Market October Table of Contents Nevada Statewide Trends... 2 Northern Trends.. 10 Southern Trends.. 14 Rural Trends... 18 Page 1
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Population: 2,890,845 in Housing Units: 1,209,756 in Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts Page 2
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Statewide new and existing home sales decreased. These decreases were driven by large decreases in Northern and Rural Nevada. Southern Nevada saw slight increases in new and existing home sales. Humboldt The statewide share of homes sold under distress increased 0.4 percentage points. This increase was driven by a large increase in Southern Nevada. Northern and Rural Nevada saw decreases in the distress share. Statewide notices of default increased after six consecutive months with a decrease. Both Northern and Rural Nevada saw increases in notices of default while Southern Nevada saw a slight decrease. Washoe Storey Carson City Lyon Pershing Churchill Lander Eureka Elko White Pine New home prices increased for the second consecutive month. New home prices were up $24,000 since October. Douglas Mineral Single Family Home Sales* October M2M Change Y2Y Change New 742 1.5% 13.0% Existing 4,395 1.4% 12.9% Distress Share 10.2% +4.7% 12.9% Residential Construction Total Starts 1,215 +52 +11 Single Family 817 170 +7 Multifamily 398 +222 +4 Average Single Family Sales Price* New $362,655 +3.1% +6.8% Existing $244,118 1.7% +2.6% Distress $193,115 1.7% +9.1% Esmeralda Nye Clark Lincoln Source: Lied Institute calculations and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 3
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Average Price in Thousands 100 200 300 400 Single-Family Home Prices Monthly Number of Sales 0 4000 6000 8000 10000 Single-Family Home Sales Date (January - October ) Date (January - October ) Existing New Existing New The Single Family Home Prices figure above shows the three month moving average price of existing homes and new homes. Existing homes are single family homes that were exchanged from one private owner to another. This includes homes sold by real estate agents, owners, and lenders. New homes are single family homes that were exchanged from a builder to a private owner. The other figure, Single Family Homes Sales, illustrates the number of those transactions for both existing and new homes. A seasonal pattern is obvious in the Single Family Home Sales graph, with more home sales during the summer than during the winter. Page 4
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends 20 40 60 80 100 Proportion of Affordable Home Sales Housing Affordability Date (1 Quarter - 3 Quarter ) Las Vegas Reno Nation Source: National Association of Home Builders Note: Series denote the proportion of home sales affordable at median income. Equilibrium 250 220 Clark Listings in Hundreds 100 130 160 190 70 Nevada Single-Family Homes for Sale Date (January - October ) Clark Washoe 10 20 30 40 50 Washoe Listings in Hundreds Source: Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors The Housing Affordability figure shows the proportion of home sales that could have been bought by borrowers earning at least the local median income, with a conventional loan. This index was developed by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), to provide a benchmark of affordability. The other figure, Nevada Single Family Homes for Sale, shows the numberofhomes availableforsale attheend of themonth. These numbers include new listings that are awaiting a purchasing contract, as well as homes that are under contract and about to sell. Page 5
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Monthly Number of Sales 0 1000 3000 4000 Single-Family Distress Sales Date (January - October ) Share of Distress Sales 0 20 40 60 80 Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales REO Sales Short Sales Date (January - October ) Single Family Distress Sales is a figure that displays the monthly number of Real Estate Owned (REO) sales and short sales. REO sales are homes that have been repossessed by lenders through foreclosure and then sold in the market. Short sales, on the other hand, are homes that were sold for an amount below the owner s outstanding mortgage balance. Both numbers are three month weighted moving averages. The other figure, Share of Distress Single Family Home Sales, tracks the proportion of home sales (including new home sales) that were REO sales or short sales. The long term decline in that share continues, even as the number of such sales remains roughly level, indicating an increasing number of normal sales. Page 6
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Count in Thousands 0 20 40 60 80 100 Foreclosure Trends 70 80 90 100 Percent 20 30 40 50 60 61.46 Equity Measures as of Quarter 3, (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) 57.34 31.99 25.25 18.99 14.18 10 Date (January - October ) 0 90+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory Positive Equity Negative Equity The Foreclosure Trends figure includes two series: the 90+ Days Delinquent series and the Foreclosure Inventory series. The 90+ Days Delinquent series consists of the number of homes that are secured byaloanindefaultfor90daysormore.this includes homes that are in the process of being foreclosed. The Foreclosure Inventory series consists of homes that have begun the foreclosure process or are in some stage of foreclosure. The other figure depicts what proportion of homes secured by a mortgage have positive equity or negative equity. When a home has a market value at or above its outstanding mortgage balance, it is consider to have positive equity. Otherwise, the house has negative equity. Page 7
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends Monthly Frequency 0 4000 6000 8000 10000 Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (April - October ) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD Monthly Frequency 0 4000 6000 8000 Residential Home Auctions Date (April - October ) Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average The first figure shows the monthly number of Notices of Default and Repossessions. The Notice of Default (NOD) is the initial stage of foreclosure that starts at least 90 days after the homeowner s mortgage default date. Not all homes that receive a NOD will necessarily be foreclosed. There exist other alternatives homeowners can invoke such as a loan modification, deed in lieu of foreclosure, and short sale. The other figure, Residential Home Auctions, shows the monthly number of homes that received a Notice of Trustee Sale and underwent a public auction. It includes both the successful and unsuccessful auctions. Those that were unsuccessful revert back to the lender. Page 8
Nevada s Housing Market October Nevada Statewide Trends New Jersey New York Maine Hawaii Florida New Mexico Connecticut Delaware Vermont Rhode Island 11. Nevada Ohio Illinois Massachusetts Pennsylvania Oklahoma Maryland Indiana Kentucky Louisiana 0 Top 20 States in Foreclosure Inventory 3rd Quarter 1.95 Ranked 11 in Q2 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of Loans in the Foreclosure Inventory Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey 12 New Jersey Mississippi Ohio Maryland Arkansas Alabama New York Indiana Maine Connecticut West Virginia Delaware Pennsylvania Illinois Georgia Rhode Island Louisiana Wyoming Florida Tennessee Missouri Massachusetts Kentucky South Carolina Wisconsin 0 Top 25 States in Foreclosure Starts 3rd Quarter Ranked 22 in Q2 Nevada ranked 29 in Q3 at 0.30.25.5.75 1 Mortgage Foreclosure Starts as Percent of Stock Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey 1.25 These figures rank Nevada nationally on the basis of data provided by The Mortgage Bankers Association s National Delinquency Survey. The Top 20 States in Foreclosure Inventory uses the proportion of outstanding loans that are in the foreclosure inventory that is, the number of home loans reported to be in some stage of foreclosure divided by the total number of home loans serviced. The Top 25 States in Foreclosure Starts is a ranking that uses mortgage foreclosure starts as a percent of stock. In other words, this is the number of initiated foreclosures divided by the total number of home loans serviced. Page 9
Nevada s Housing Market October Northern Trends Population: 629,906 in Housing Units: 271,431 in Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, Storey, and Washoe County) Page 10
Nevada s Housing Market October Northern Trends New home sales decreased on a month to month basis for the sixth consecutive month. October new home sales were the lowest they had been since November. The October distress share decreased 0.7 percentage points and was down 2.4 percentage points on a year over year basis. Humboldt Elko Notices of Default saw a large increase and there were 108 notices in October. However, this represents less than half of the notices there were in October. Washoe Pershing Lander Eureka After six consecutive months with an increase in existing home prices, existing home prices decreased 4 percent in October. Existing home prices were still up 1.6 percent on a year over year basis. Carson City Single Family Home Sales* October M2M Change Y2Y Change New 57 19.0% 62.2% Existing 673 18.1% 42.2% Distress Share 5.7% 10.3% 29.6% Residential Construction Total Starts 468 +126 +227 Single Family 150 142 73 Multifamily 318 +268 +300 Average Single Family Sales Price* New $396,866 1.9% +7.6% Existing $294,738 4.0% +1.6% Distress $239,561 +5.3% +17.7% Storey Douglas Lyon Churchill Mineral Esmeralda Nye White Pine Lincoln Clark Source: Lied Institute calculations and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 11
Northern Trends Nevada s Housing Market October Page 12 Average Price in Thousands 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 500 1000 1500 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Prices Date (January - October ) Existing New Single-Family Home Sales Date (January - October ) Existing New Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales 0 20 40 60 Share of Distress Sales Date (January - October ) 0 100 200 300 400 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Distress Sales Date (January - October ) REO Sales Short Sales
Nevada s Housing Market October Northern Trends Count in Thousands 0 5 10 15 Foreclosure Trends Monthly Frequency 0 500 1000 1500 Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (January - October ) Date (April - October ) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO 90+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD 70 80 90 100 Percent 10 20 30 40 50 60 53.22 Equity Measures as of Quarter 3, (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) 48.80 25.04 17.83 11.35 7.74 Monthly Frequency 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Residential Home Auctions 0 Date (April - October ) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Page 13
Nevada s Housing Market October Southern Trends Population: 2,114,801 in Housing Units: 871,807 in Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Clark County) Page 14
Nevada s Housing Market October Southern Trends Southern Nevada was the only region in Nevada where new and existing home sales increased on a month to month basis. On a year over year basis, new home sales decreased for the third consecutive month and existing homes decreased for the fourth consecutive month. Humboldt After three consecutive months with a decrease in the distress share, the distress share increased 0.4 percentage points. This increase was a result of an increase in REO sales as short sales decreased slightly. Washoe Pershing Elko Single family starts decreased for the fourth consecutive month. However, single family starts increased on a year over year basis for the eleventh consecutive month. Southern Nevada was also the only region in Nevada where new and existing home prices increased. Average new homes were up $25,000 since October. Single Family Home Sales* October M2M Change Y2Y Change New 670 +0.5% 1.8% Existing 3,499 +2.8% 3.6% Distress Share 11.0% +9.4% 19.3% Residential Construction Total Starts 733 70 214 Single Family 653 24 +82 Multifamily 80 46 296 Average Single Family Sales Price* New $374,912 +3.8% +7.3% Existing $235,291 +0.2% +5.6% Distress $189,226 2.3% +9.6% Carson City Storey Douglas Lyon Lander Eureka Churchill Mineral Nye Esmeralda White Pine Lincoln Clark Source: Lied Institute calculations and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 15
Southern Trends Nevada s Housing Market October Page 16 Average Price in Thousands 100 200 300 400 0 4000 6000 8000 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Prices Date (January - October ) Existing New Single-Family Home Sales Date (January - October ) Existing New Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales 0 20 40 60 80 Share of Distress Sales Date (January - October ) 0 1000 3000 4000 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Distress Sales Date (January - October ) REO Sales Short Sales
Nevada s Housing Market October Southern Trends Count in Thousands 0 20 40 60 80 Foreclosure Trends Monthly Frequency 0 4000 6000 8000 10000 Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (January - October ) Date (April - October ) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO 90+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD 70 80 90 100 Percent 10 20 30 40 50 60 64.67 Equity Measures as of Quarter 3, (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) 60.64 34.54 27.85 21.56 16.24 Monthly Frequency 0 4000 6000 8000 Residential Home Auctions 0 Date (April - October ) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Page 17
Nevada s Housing Market October Rural Trends Population: 146,138 in Housing Units: 66,518 in Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, and White Pine County) Page 18
Nevada s Housing Market October Rural Trends Existing home sales decreased on a month to month basis for the fourth consecutive month and decreased on a year to year basis for the seventh consecutive month. Single family starts decreased on a month to month and year to year basis for the second consecutive month. October was the fourth consecutive month with zero multifamily construction starts. Washoe Humboldt Elko The distress share decreased 2.7 percentage points in October. This large decrease offset September s large increase in the distress share. Storey Pershing Churchill Lander Eureka White Pine Distress home prices saw a 5.2 percent decrease. October also saw a large decrease in distress home prices. Average distress home prices were up $10,000 on a year over year basis. Carson City Douglas Lyon Mineral Single Family Home Sales* October M2M Change Y2Y Change New 14 8.7% 26.3% Existing 199 1.8% 8.4% Distress Share 10.1% 21.4% 14.9% Residential Construction Total Starts 14 4 2 Single Family 14 4 2 Multifamily 0 +0 +0 Average Single Family Sales Price* New $234,496 0.6% 0.8% Existing $148,299 0.3% +14.9% Distress $113,842 5.2% +10.3% Esmeralda Nye Clark Lincoln Source: Lied Institute calculations and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 19
Rural Trends Nevada s Housing Market October Page 20 50 100 150 200 250 300 Average Price in Thousands 0 200 400 600 800 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Prices Date (January - October ) Existing New Single-Family Home Sales Date (January - October ) Existing New Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales 0 10 20 30 40 Share of Distress Sales Date (January - October ) 0 20 40 60 80 Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Distress Sales Date (January - October ) REO Sales Short Sales
Nevada s Housing Market October Rural Trends Count in Thousands 0.5 1 1.5 Foreclosure Trends Monthly Frequency 0 50 100 150 200 Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (January - October ) Date (April - October ) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO 90+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD 70 80 90 100 Percent 10 20 30 40 50 60 39.63 Equity Measures as of Quarter 3, (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) 38.96 24.40 20.15 16.15 13.85 Monthly Frequency 0 50 100 150 200 Residential Home Auctions 0 Date (April - October ) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Page 21
Nevada s Housing Market October About the Lied Institute The Lied Institute was established in 1989 by the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas to foster excellence in real estate education and research. Through partnerships with business and community leaders, the Lied Institute strives to improve the real estate business and effective public policy practices in Southern Nevada. The institute produces relevant and timely real estate research, supports educational programs in real estate economics and finance for students and professionals, and provides community outreach and continuing education. Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Box 456025 Las Vegas, NV 89154 6025 Edward Coulson Director (702) 895 1660 Ed.Coulson@unlv.edu Betty Campbell Program Coordinator (702) 895 4492 Betty.Campbell@unlv.edu Peter Counts Data Analyst (702) 895 3223 Peter.Counts@unlv.edu Copyright Report on Nevada s Housing Market Readers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Page 22