Residential City Profile Düsseldorf 2 nd half of 2017 Published in February 2018 Düsseldorf
Socio-economic trends Düsseldorf 2 nd half of 2017 Population and households 2016 Population Households District Total since 2012 (%) Migration balance* Natural population growth* Total since 2012 (%) Single-person households (%) Stadtbezirk 1 84,840 6.0 1,536 360 54,822 4.5 64.2 Stadtbezirk 2 62,340 5.7 585 271 37,053 4.3 59.3 Stadtbezirk 3 119,086 4.1 1,363 323 75,262 3.6 63.2 Stadtbezirk 4 43,446 5.3 445 55 23,786 1.6 52.3 Stadtbezirk 5 34,479 4.0-92 -110 16,392 0.9 41.8 Stadtbezirk 6 65,415 7.3 1,916 86 33,109 4.2 47.6 Stadtbezirk 7 47,296 3.8 80-73 24,271 1.4 46.8 Stadtbezirk 8 60,233 2.3-5 -24 31,366 2.5 47.6 Stadtbezirk 9 93,486 2.6 200-90 47,342 1.2 46.9 Stadtbezirk 10 25,083 2.4 325-27 11,640 2.4 38.0 Düsseldorf 635,704 4.4 6,353 771 355,043 3.0 54.3 * Net migration is the difference between inward and outward migration natural balance is the difference between the number of births and deaths. Slowdown in population growth The city of Düsseldorf continues to grow. The population increased by approximately 1.2% to 636,000 in 2016, corresponding to growth of 27,000 or 4.4% over the past 4 years, including more than 7,200 in 2016 alone. The main reason for the population growth in Düsseldorf is inward migration. During the last few years, a considerable number of people have moved to the city from other EU countries to work. This influx is expected to decrease over the next few years as economic conditions improve in their countries of origin, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. The state of North Rhein-Westphalia is also expecting population growth to slow down to roughly 4,500 p.a. by 2020. Nonetheless, Düsseldorf is expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future. The State estimates that the city will continue to grow by around 10% or 62,000 by 2040. Economy and demographics by comparison Residential City Profiles February 2018 2
Housing Market in Düsseldorf 2 nd half of 2017 Stock data 2016 Residential buildings Housing units Housing completions** Bezirke Total Multi-family buildings (%) Total* since 2012 (%) Total thereof in multifamily dwellings Stadtbezirk 1 5,708 86.5 53,977 1.1 289 286 Stadtbezirk 2 4,371 83.9 36,704 1.2 203 184 Stadtbezirk 3 8,708 79.9 70,878 0.9 126 111 Stadtbezirk 4 5,112 57.7 25,082 2.1 350 321 Stadtbezirk 5 7,846 19.2 16,821 0.4 376 328 Stadtbezirk 6 8,271 42.6 32,457 1.2 197 108 Stadtbezirk 7 6,966 40.5 24,586 0.3 82 36 Stadtbezirk 8 8,205 41.9 31,181 0.2 134 86 Stadtbezirk 9 12,260 42.4 47,945 0.1 223 204 Stadtbezirk 10 3,211 26.6 11,516-0.4 3 0 Düsseldorf 70,800 50.6 352,173 1.1 1,985 1,664 * Housing units in residential buildings, other buildings and residential homes ** Completions of units through new buildings Upswing in new-build activity The volume of new-build completions in Düsseldorf in 2016 was the second highest of the past 15 years. According to information provided by the City of Düsseldorf, almost 2,000 new apartments were completed, which is higher than in any other year with the exception of 2014 which had over 2,200 residential units. The number of permits for almost 3,400 new-build apartments has reached the highest level since the early 1990s, signifying that the city has almost achieved the target of its residential action plan. It is estimated that there will be 3,450 new residential building permits in 2018. Half of all building permits are for new publicly-subsidised and price-controlled apartments. It is apparent from the increased number of building permits over a short timescale that the City of Düsseldorf appears to have exhausted all initiatives for the promotion of new-build activity over the short-term. It now remains to be seen whether new-build activity will remain at this level for a few years, as permits currently exist for all sites available for immediate development. The focus of development activity was the construction of high density apartments in multi-storey apartment buildings, which accounted for 84% of all completions. Highly sought-after city centre districts such as Oberkassel, Flingern and Pempelfort also experienced a high level of new-build activity. In addition, there was increased construction activity in northern districts such as Kaiserswerth and Angermund and in the south in locations such as Benrath. Nonetheless, construction is still concentrated on the medium to higherquality locations in the city. This is likely to change under the residential action plan, as new-build construction is increasingly intended for subsidised apartments. A proportion of these will be taken-up by the Städtische Wohnungsbau Düsseldorf (SWD Düsseldorf s public-sector residential development company), which plans to create around 200 new residential units p.a. by 2020. Residential City Profiles February 2018 3
2,000 too few new apartments completed annually In view of the population growth over the last few years and the utterly insufficient level of new-build activity, there is now a requirement for more than 4,000 new apartments every year in Düsseldorf in order to satisfy demand. The target number of new apartments under the residential action plan is well below this figure at around 3,000 p.a. This number may be sufficient in the medium-term starting in 2020 if the influx of population into Düsseldorf does indeed decrease as forecast by the State. However, current completions have not even reached the 2,000 mark and therefore demand for residential space is unlikely to be satisfied over the coming years. Housing supply and demand for new buildings Residential building completions 2015 and 2016 Residential City Profiles February 2018 4
Rental Housing Market in Düsseldorf 2 nd half of 2017 Rental price bands for offered apartments of rental prices Median in /sqm/month Rental growth stagnates over the second half of the year Rental prices stagnated in Düsseldorf in a half year period for the first time since 2010. Similar to the first half of 2017, the average asking rent for apartments was 11.00/sqm/ month, a 3.3% increase compared to the same period in 2016. It remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary stagnation as in 2010, particularly as demand for apartments still exceeds supply and there is insufficient new-build activity, or whether there will be a stagnation in rents in Düsseldorf over the next few half years. Although the high growth rates over the last few years (the 10-year average is around 3.9% p.a.) are probably now a thing of the past, it is highly likely that rents will continue to rise gradually. Residential City Profiles February 2018 5
Rental price bands for offered apartments (2 nd half of 2017 in /sqm/month) All apartments New build (since 2013) District 10% Median rent* (50%) since H2 2016 in % 90% Median rent* (50%) since H2 2016 in % Stadtbezirk 1 8.90 12.00 5.0 18.80 14.30-2.6 Stadtbezirk 2 8.80 11.25-1.9 15.45 12.80-1.2 Stadtbezirk 3 8.80 11.05 1.1 18.80 13.00 2.3 Stadtbezirk 4 10.00 13.15 0.7 18.50 15.55 9.2 Stadtbezirk 5 9.00 11.45 5.9 15.95 13.20 1.5 Stadtbezirk 6 8.05 9.90 4.7 14.35 12.55 5.0 Stadtbezirk 7 8.30 10.25 2.6 12.75 12.05 4.3 Stadtbezirk 8 7.90 9.50 7.8 11.60 10.85 2.5 Stadtbezirk 9 8.00 9.60 4.5 12.00 10.05-7.2 Stadtbezirk 10 7.20 9.10 10.4 12.85 12.85 43.0 Düsseldorf 8.50 11.00 3.3 16.85 13.20 2.6 * Median rent: 50 per cent of the listings are above 50 per cent below this figure Weak performance in the upper half of the market The recent stagnation in rents was due entirely to the upper half of the market, in which there had been particularly significant rental growth over the preceding half years. In the current half year however, it is evident that the falls in rent have been greater in the more expensive price categories. Whilst rents are 2% lower in the upper quarter of the market (75 th percentile) compared to the previous half year, they have fallen by 11% in the prime segment (95 th percentile) across the city. By contrast, rental growth is continuing in the lower half of the market with rents rising by around 4% compared to the previous half year in the lowest price category (10 th percentile) and by roughly 2% in the lower mid-priced category (25 th percentile). The same trend is evident when comparing asking rents in the expensive and more reasonably priced locations. Asking rents are continuing to rise in the more affordable locations, whilst they are falling in the expensive districts in the city centre. The highest year-on-year increase in asking rents of 10% was observed in District 10 (Garath), which is the most reasonably priced location in which to rent an apartment. Rents have fallen year-on-year in Flingern and Düsseltal (District 2) which comprise highly priced neighbourhoods which have enjoyed high growth rates in the past. There were between a fifth and a third more existing and new-build apartments on offer in Düsseldorf across all locations in the second half of 2017. In contrast to the wider letting market, asking rents for new-build apartments continued to rise compared to the previous half year (+2%). Residential City Profiles February 2018 6
The residential property market Düsseldorf Asking rental prices in the second half of 2017 ì A 524 ìa 3 ì A 52 ì A 52 ìa 3 ì A 57 District 5 ì A 44 ì A 44 ì ì A 44 A 44 ìa 44 ì A 52 District 6 ì A 57 ì A 52 District 4 District 1 District 2 District 7 ì A 3 ìa 57 District 3 District 8 ì A 46 ì A 57 ì A 46 ì A 3 ì A 46 ì A 46 District 9 ì A 59 ìa 57 ì A 3 District 10 ì A 59 0 5 10 Kilometers Rent Level Average in /sqm/month on postcode level < 10.00 10.00 < 11.00 12.00 < 13.00 >= 13.00 Water Area Green Area Industrial or Traffic Area Other Area 11.00 < 12.00 Residential City Profiles February 2018 7
Condominium Market in Düsseldorf 2 nd half of 2017 Purchase price bands for condominiums of purchase prices Median in /sqm Falling asking prices for condominium apartments Asking prices for condominium apartments have fallen again slightly for the first time since 2009. Prices fell by 30.00/sqm or 0.8% to around 3,630/sqm compared to the first half of the year, whereas they had been rising by an average of approximately 5.6% in every half year between 2012 and the first half of 2017. This equates to a half year growth of around 2.5% since the start of the review period in 2004. The forecast downturn in growth rates has arrived in Düsseldorf faster than expected. However, this is unlikely to indicate a long-term trend towards stagnating or falling prices, but rather an interim correction phase, as shown by the analysis on the next page. Residential City Profiles February 2018 8
Purchase price bands for condominiums (2 nd half of 2017 in /sqm) All apartments New build (since 2013) District 10% Median price* (50%) since H2 2016 in % 90% Median price* (50%) since H2 2016 in % Stadtbezirk 1 2,840 4,600 4.7 8,970 8,630 60.7 Stadtbezirk 2 2,710 4,070 15.6 6,470 5,140 17.9 Stadtbezirk 3 2,370 3,530 2.5 5,460 4,680 9.6 Stadtbezirk 4 3,450 5,230-7.9 7,690 6,150-1.1 Stadtbezirk 5 2,680 3,770-5.5 5,600 4,860 0.0 Stadtbezirk 6 1,860 2,820 9.0 4,360 4,010 3.9 Stadtbezirk 7 2,170 3,570 17.9 5,770 4,780 41.3 Stadtbezirk 8 2,230 2,850 12.4 3,800 n/a n/a Stadtbezirk 9 1,980 2,870 17.0 4,540 4,400 13.8 Stadtbezirk 10 1,590 1,910 0.3 2,700 n/a n/a Düsseldorf 2,290 3,630 6.5 6,530 5,040 7.6 * Median rent: 50 per cent of the listings are above 50 per cent below this figure Continued significant price increases outside the top locations In contrast to the rental market, the price decreases in the condominium apartment market are much less widespread. They affect just a few districts and price categories. Asking prices are falling almost exclusively in the upper price brackets in the respective locations. Prices are falling in Niederkassel and Oberkassel (District 4) because of the lack of expensive new-build apartments and a decrease in supply of almost a quarter. Prices have also fallen by up to 8% year-on-year for existing apartments in the upper half of the market. However, there is still considerable overall interest in good residential locations in Düsseldorf. The trend appears to have affected just a few districts in the upper price bracket. Prices for apartments in the medium to lower price categories in Niederkassel and Oberkassel are still rising dramatically. Year-on-year price hikes of up to 16% have been observed in these areas. There is a similar but less pronounced trend in Flingern and Düsseltal (District 2) and Angermund, Kaiserswerth, Lohausen and Stockum (District 5). Asking prices in the more reasonably priced districts have continued to rise at rates of 10%+ compared to the first half of the year. These include Lichtenbroich, Mörsenbroich and Unterrath (District 6) and many districts in the south of Düsseldorf such as Eller, Holthausen, Unterbach, Reisholz and Garath (Districts 8, 9 and 10). This trend confirms the shift of purchaser attention towards more affordable existing stock and the fact that the upper price limit has been reached in many expensive locations, but it by no means indicates an end to the trend of rising prices. Residential City Profiles February 2018 9
Division of Düsseldorf districts and areas District Stadtbezirk 1 Stadtbezirk 2 Stadtbezirk 3 Stadtbezirk 4 Stadtbezirk 5 Stadtbezirk 6 Stadtbezirk 7 Stadtbezirk 8 Stadtbezirk 9 Stadtbezirk 10 Area Altstadt, Carlstadt, Stadtmitte, Pempelfort, Derendorf, Golzheim Flingern Süd, Flingern Nord, Düsseltal Bilk, Hafen, Hamm, Flehe, Friedrichstadt, Oberbilk, Unterbilk, Volmerswerth Heerdt, Lörick, Niederkassel, Oberkassel Angermund, Kaiserswerth, Kalkum, Lohausen, Stockum, Wittlaer Lichtenbroich, Mörsenbroich, Rath, Unterrath Gerresheim, Grafenberg, Hubbelrath, Ludenberg Eller, Lierenfeld, Unterbach, Vennhausen Benrath, Hassels, Himmelgeist, Holthausen, Itter, Reisholz, Urdenbach, Wersten Garath, Hellerhof Residential City Profiles February 2018 10
Sources Page 2 Chart Economy and demographics by comparison : destatis, municipal statistical offices, GfK Geomarketing, Federal Employment Agency, Oxford Economics; Table Population and households : Office for Statistics and Elections of Düsseldorf Page 3-4 Table Stock data : Office for Statistics and Elections of Düsseldorf; Chart Housing supply and demand for new buildings : Office for Statistics and Elections of Düsseldorf, Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial (BBSR), JLL; Chart Residential building completions : Office for Statistics and Elections of Düsseldorf Page 5-6 Chart Rental price bands for offered apartments : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL; Chart of rental prices : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL; Table Rental price bands for offered apartments : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL Page 7 Map: IDN ImmoDaten, JLL, Infas Geodaten Page 8-9 Chart Purchase price bands for condominiums : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL; Chart of purchase prices : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL; Table Purchase price bands for condominiums : IDN ImmoDaten, JLL
Contacts Ralf Kemper Head of Valuation & Transaction Advisory Germany Frankfurt tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1092 ralf.kemper@eu.jll.com Dr. Konstantin Kortmann Head of Residential Investment Germany Frankfurt tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1390 konstantin.kortmann@eu.jll.com Thomas Zabel CEO, Head of Residential Berlin tel +49 (0) 30 886600 115 t.zabel@zabel.com Helge Scheunemann Head of Research Germany Hamburg tel +49 (0)40 350011 225 helge.scheunemann@eu.jll.com Roman Heidrich Team Leader Residential Valuation Advisory Berlin Berlin tel +49 (0) 30 203980 106 roman.heidrich@eu.jll.com Sebastian Grimm Team Leader Residential Valuation Advisory Frankfurt Frankfurt tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1196 sebastian.grimm@eu.jll.com Tobias Köhler Team Leader Residential Investment Düsseldorf Düsseldorf tel +49 (0)211 13006 670 tobias.koehler@eu.jll.com Author Julius Stinauer Associate Director Berlin tel +49 (0) 30 203980 184 julius.stinauer@eu.jll.com jll.de Information regarding JLL and our services jll.de/research All research reports on current market figures and special topics jll.de/immo Commercial real estate properties for sale or to let throughout Germany Copyright JONES LANG LASALLE GmbH, 2018. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.