Industrial. Moscow Key market figures in 014 INDEX VALUE Total stock, million m 10.93 Completions, million m 1.7 Take-up, million m 1.0 Vacancy rate, % 6.3 Average rental rate, RUB/m /year* 4,500 Average sale price, RUB/m * 43,000 Key market figures in 014 NORTH NORTH-EAST,006,000 m 633,700 m NORTH-WEST 8.3% 1.0% 45,000 m 1,500 m EAST 687,000 m 765,00 m 9.0% 135,400 m 501,000 m,700 m 3.1% WEST 4.3% 74,500 m 7.0% 194,00 m 1,938,000 m 1.6% 438,000 m 3,515,000 m Moscow 4,00 m 3.0% SOUTH-EAST Supply 014 was a record year for completions with 1.7 million m of new high quality industrial space appeared in Moscow region. This is the highest completion volume in the history of the industrial market. Total stock in 014 almost reached 11 million m and accounted for 10.93 million m. SOUTH-WEST Total stock Vacancy rate 459,400 m SOUTH Completions * Here and below, rental rates are given excluding VAT, OPEX and utilities; the sale price is net of VAT Major industrial complexes completed in 014 PROPERTY DEVELOPER AREA, M PNK-Chekhov, bldg 1, 4.1, 4., 5, 6, 7 159,500 Industrial Park South Gate Radius Group 130,000 SST-Britovo Sovremennye Skladskie Tekhnologii 17,100 Logopark Nikolskoye Eastward Capital 105,400 PNK-Northen Sheremetievo, bldg 8, 9, 11 96,100 Logopark Sofyino AT Nedvizhimost 86,000 Logopark Dmitrov, bldg B GHELAMCO 75,400 Logopark Sever, phase 1 Logopark Development 75,000 Logopark Novaya Riga Raven Russia 67,390 1
In 014, the majority of completions were located in three directions north, south-east and south of Moscow region. 7%, 5% and 3% of total high quality industrial completions were built there respectively. The largest share of facilities completed in 014 belong to PNK Group: six buildings with a total area 160,000 m were completed in Chekhov and three buildings with approximately 100,000 m in Northen Sheremetievo. In addition, other large facilities appeared in the market such as Logopark Nikolskoye by Eastward Capital (105,000 m ), Logopark Sofyino phase 1 (by AT Nedvizhimost, 86,000 m ), new building of Logopark Dmitrov (GHELAMCO, 75,400 m ) and a several buildings of Logopark Sever (Logopark Development, 75,000 m ). Approximately 60% of all completed facilities are located between 7.5 and 30 km from MKAD, where demand for industrial real estate is concentrated. Demand A significant shift in demand structure occurred in 014 resulting in an imbalance between demand and supply. The economic and geopolitical environment resulted in a decrease in tenant activity in Moscow region industrial market. The fast growth rate of completions have satisfied declining demand and, according to experts estimates, even outperformed it over the year. As a result, demand in 014 declined by 30% compared to previous year with total take-up accounting for 1.0 million m of high quality industrial space. The share of pre-lease and pre-sale agreements in industrial market accounted for only 8% in 014 against 60% in 013, of which 69% were built-to-suit deals and only 31% of the deals concerned facilities under construction. Major demand in the Moscow region industrial market was represented by retail and distribution companies, which purchased and rented around 50% of all closed deals. Completions and take-up, thousand m 1,800 1,500 1,00 900 600 300 0 1,150 511 804 5 007 008 009 010 011 01 013 014 Completions, thousand m 1,000 1,37 Take-up, thousand m Major lease and purchase transactions in 014 in the Moscow Region COMPANY AREA, M PROPERTY Confidential 70,600* PNK-Bekasovo Confidential 53,00* PNK-Northen Sheremetievo Kari 45,000 SST-Britovo STS Logistics 39,800 Logopark Sever- Plus (Tengelmann Group) 30,000 South Gate Confidential 5,190* PNK-Chekhov Bubble Gum 4,000 Tomilino K43 Х5 Retail group,80 Oriflame Hoff 0,390 Absolut Gulliver & Co 19,870 Berezhki Uzhny Dvor 16,780 Nikka Tomilino * - sale/purchase deal 838 568 507 904 418 767 Transactions by tenant type, % 890 1,400 1,74 1,01 1% 15% 50% 3% Retail and distributions companies Logistics operators Manufacturing companies Other
Q1 01 Q 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 013 Q 013 Q3 013 Q4 013 Q1 014 Q 014 Q3 014 Q4 014 Q1 01 Q 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 013 Q 013 Q3 013 Q4 013 Q1 014 Q 014 Q3 014 Q4 014 Vacancy rates The share of vacant industrial space in the Moscow region accounted for 6.3% in 014. This is a record figure for the last five years. The growth of the index was primarily influenced by a discrepancy between demand and supply. Approximately 40% of total completions over the year remained vacant at the time of commissioning, while in the fourth quarter this was more than half (51%). By the end of 014, the major share of vacant supply in Moscow region was concentrated in the south-east and the north directions 35% and 4% respectively. This is due to rapid construction and a growth in new high quality completions. Vacancy rates, % 13 6 6.3 1 1 1. 1 007 008 009 010 011 01 013 014 Rental rates The significant completions volume and continuous ruble devaluation in 014 significantly influenced rental rates in the industrial market. Almost 90% of the deals are now nominated in roubles, although their share accounted for only 40-50% in the middle of the year. The average rental rate in the Moscow region was 4,500 RUB/m /year. Translated at the current exchange rate the rent in dollar terms decreased significantly, while rental rates in rouble terms stayed at an exchange rate of 33-34 roubles and since 01 this has been in 4,000-4,700 RUB/m /year range. According to expert forecasts, either contracts will still be nominated in roubles in 015 or the dollar will be fixed under 45 RUB. The average sale/purchase/price of high quality warehouse facilities was 43,000 RUB per square meter at the end of 014. Dynamics of rental rates and USD exchange rate $/m /year 150 140 130 10 110 100 90 80 70 Rental rate, $/m /year 15 36. 60 75* USD exchange rate, RUB/$ * - 4,500 RUR/m /year average market rental rate (net of VAT, OPEX and utilities), USD rate is converted at the exchange rate on the corresponding date (60 RUR for 1 USD) Dynamics of rental rates based on the relevant exchange rate 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 5 0 RUB/$ $/m /year 150 135 140 135 135 138 138 138 138 133 18 130 15 4,480 4,353 4,510 4,675 110 4,475 4,50 48 47 4,00 4,435 4,193 4,18 90 4,054 70 4,500 75 4,900 4,600 4,300 4,000 RUB/m /year USD rental rates, $/m /year Rouble rental rates, RUB/m /year 3
Trends and Prognosis The industrial market has been influenced by the economic and geopolitical environment in Russia and throughout the whole of 014. The market saw an imbalance in demand and supply, a record high completion volume and consumption slowdown, which altogether resulted in vacancy growth. According to experts estimates, completed space will gradually be taken up by the market, while an insignificant volume of facilities announced for completion in 015 will to a larger extent depend on financing and lending terms for developers. It is worth mentioning that significant growth of construction volumes together with low tenant and buyer consumption has led to a completion schedule freeze and shifts of certain large facilities. It has also led to a change in function in some cases (thus, although TGC Group planned completion of Logopark Radumlya phase 1, totaling 161,000 m by the end of 014, in October they announced a functional conversion into an agriculture cluster). Dollar exchange rate volatility, seen since beginning of 014, resulted in slowdown of a tenant activity and the speed of closing lease/sale contracts. Demand therefore decreased by 30% compared to the previous year. Due to the almost complete market shift towards contracts nominated in roubles, current tenants are seeking to switch to rental rates in roubles or a currency band arrangement. 014 saw increased competition among developers who are ready to make concessions and provide additional discounts in order to attract and keep tenants. Major industrial complexes planned to be completed in 015 PROPERTY DEVELOPER AREA, M PNK-Chekhov 3, phase 1 10,00 Logopark Sever-, phase Logopark Development 93,100 PNK-Bekasovo, bldg 1, 3 9,600 Logopark Kievsky, phase CPD Group 71,940 Logopark Novaya Riga Raven Russia 70,000 PNK-Northen Sheremetievo, bldg 10 66,530 Logopark Synkovo, bldg, 9, 10 Kholding Stroitelniy Aliyans 64,500 Warehouse complex Atlant Atlant Metalloplast 59,800 Sherrizone Nord Griffin Partners 55,600 Industrial Park South Gate Radius Group 51,000 Logopark Dmitrov, bldg С GHELAMCO 46,000 Warehouse complex Berezhki n/a 4,000 PNK-Chekhov, bldg 8 4,530 Warehouse complex Mikhailovskaya Sloboda Meridian Logistic 3,77 4
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