Property Take 20 Sep 2013 Expect Flattish Home Prices over the Near Term Malaysia: Residential Highlights We think that there is high likelihood that overall home prices will be relatively flat in the next 2 years based on incoming supply data, annual demand estimates and household income. The best-case scenario over the near term is that the annual growth in home price index will revert to its historical average of 5% (based on quarterly data since 1Q1999) after taking into account the macro challenges, slower GDP growth (on 21 August, the Malaysian government revised its GDP forecast downwards to 4.5-5% from 5-6%) and the fact that banks are more cautious in lending. In our view, double-digit growth in home prices is not sustainable unless there is a corresponding increase in household income. Malaysia s All House Price Index registered a CAGR (2009-2012) of 9.4% compared to the mean and median household income CAGRs (2009-2012) of 7.5% and 8.5% respectively. This suggests that home prices have not gone up by that much more relative to income and Malaysians are only slightly worse off. The average person on the street might argue otherwise. Complaints about skyrocketing property prices is more location specific. After a lull in 4Q2008-1Q2010, construction starts began to increase in 2012. If all goes according to schedule, we expect rising completions in 2014 and 2015. The expected date of completion from the date of signing of the sales & purchase agreement in Malaysia is 2 years for landed homes and 3 years for non-landed homes. The starts for non-landed residential units peaked at 17,540 units in 1Q2013. Most of the starts in the past 4 quarters, were in Selangor (29% of total), Kuala Lumpur (25% of total) and Johor (21% of total). The data on incoming supply (represents accumulative totals and includes delayed units) show that there are 654,563 units at end-2q2013p. Of Malaysia s total incoming supply, 22% was located in Selangor, followed by 17% in Johor and 9% in Negeri Sembilan. By averaging the incoming supply number over 3 years, we find that there will be a supply of slightly above 200,000 units per annum, compared to annual demand of close to 100,000 units based solely on natural population growth. Historically moderate home price growth except in 2011 and 2012. Malaysia s equity market has historically been known for its defensiveness relative to the regional markets and we see a similar quality in the country s overall Home Price Index. Even during the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009), Malaysia s All House Price Index did not fall, while the High-Rise Price Index recorded a moderate decline of 1-3% from 4Q2008 to 3Q2009. The All House Price Index for Malaysia has grown approximately 5% YoY (simple average) based on the historical quarterly data since 1Q1999. Based on the All House Price Index Chart, we noticed that there was a jump from 1Q2011 to 4Q2012. The spike was even more apparent in the non-landed segment, with the quarterly High-Rise Price Index rising by 9-18% YoY (1Q2011 to 4Q2012). We see a bit more volatility in the High-Rise Price Index, with a decline of 4-7% (1Q2002-2Q2002) that coincided with the end of the dot-com bubble. HSR International Realtors Pte Ltd Estate Agent Lic. No. L3002226G www.hsr.com.sg In our opinion, the double-digit growth in home prices will be difficult to sustain unless there is a corresponding increase in household income. Our analysis of the All House Price Index growth rate compared to household income reveals that Selangor home price recorded a 12.2% CAGR in 2009-2012 but the mean and median monthly household income growth lagged at 5.6% and 7.5%, respectively. This was also the case for Malaysia s All House Price Index, which posted a CAGR (2009-2012) of 9.4% compared to the mean and median household income CAGRs (2009-2012) of 7.5% and 8.5%, respectively. We can expect a similar pattern for Johor when the next set of statistics is publish.
2Q 2000 4Q 2000 2Q 2001 4Q 2001 2Q 2002 4Q 2002 2Q 2003 4Q 2003 2Q 2004 4Q 2004 2Q 2005 4Q 2005 2Q 2006 4Q 2006 2Q 2007 4Q 2007 2Q 2008 4Q 2008 2Q 2009 4Q 2009 2Q 2010 4Q 2010 2Q 2011 4Q 2011 2Q 2012 4Q 2012 2Q 2013p 20 Sep 2013 Growth in Home Prices vs. Household Income House Price Index 2007 2009 2012 CAGR (2009-2012) CAGR (2007-2012) All House - Malaysia 124.0 131.8 172.8 9.4% 6.9% All House - Johor 90.6 95.5 113.9 6.0% 4.7% All House- Selangor 119.2 123.6 174.5 12.2% 7.9% All House KL 139.4 142.0 198.6 11.8% 7.3% All House - Penang 131.8 145.4 183.6 8.1% 6.9% Mean Monthly Household Income Malaysia 3,686 4,025 5,000 7.5% 6.3% Johor 3,457 3,835 4,658 6.7% 6.1% Selangor 5,580 5,962 7,023 5.6% 4.7% Kuala Lumpur 5,322 5,488 8,586 16.1% 10.0% Penang 4,004 4,407 5,055 4.7% 4.8% Median Monthly Household Income Malaysia 2,552 2,841 3,626 8.5% 7.3% Johor 2,726 2,958 3,650 7.3% 6.0% Selangor 4,046 4,306 5,353 7.5% 5.8% Kuala Lumpur 3,697 4,409 5,847 9.9% 9.6% Penang 2,902 3,200 4,039 8.1% 6.8% Source: Valuation & Property Services Department MOF, Department of Statistics Malaysia, HSR Research Index All House Price Index 200 14% 180 12% 160 10% 8% 140 6% 120 4% 100 2% 80 0% All House Price Index All House YoY Chg Page 2 of 6
2Q 2000 4Q 2000 2Q 2001 4Q 2001 2Q 2002 4Q 2002 2Q 2003 4Q 2003 2Q 2004 4Q 2004 2Q 2005 4Q 2005 2Q 2006 4Q 2006 2Q 2007 4Q 2007 2Q 2008 4Q 2008 2Q 2009 4Q 2009 2Q 2010 4Q 2010 2Q 2011 4Q 2011 2Q 2012 4Q 2012 2Q 2013p 20 Sep 2013 Index 200 High-Rise Price Index 20% 180 15% 160 10% 140 5% 120 0% 100-5% 80-10% High-Rise Price Index High-Rise YoY Chg Starts have risen since 2012. From the data on starts and completions, we see that starts began to increase in 2Q2012. Starts comprises buildings where the foundation and footing works of low-rise buildings or works below ground level including piling and foundation of high-rise buildings have started but it does not include site clearing, levelling and laying of infrastructure. Starts fell during the Global Financial Crisis and only picked up in end-2010. In 2009, property developers started offering Developers Interest-Bearing Schemes (DIBS). Under the scheme, the property developer absorbs the home loan interest of the buyer during the property s construction period. SP Setia popularied this scheme in January 2009 when it introduced the 5/95 home loan package. Under that package, the buyer made a 5% down payment, with no other cash outflow until the property was handed over. SP Setia bore all legal fees, stamp duty on the sale and purchase agreement, loan agreement and memorandum of transfer in addition to servicing the interest during the construction period. Subsequently, more developers jumped on the bandwagon to provide more incentives. Starts were low during this period (4Q2008 1Q2010), which partly reflected the challenging sales environment especially in 2Q-3Q2009. Completions expected to increase in the next 2-3 years. Completions have been on a declining trend in the past few years but we expect them to rise in the next 2-3 years, especially for non-landed homes. For landed residential properties such as terrace houses, semi-detached houses and bungalows, the expected date of completion is 2 years from the date of signing of the sales & purchase agreement and for non-landed subdivided building such as apartments, condominiums and flats, the expected date of completion is 3 years. Starts for non-landed residential units peaked at 17,540 units in 1Q2013. Most of the starts in the past 4 quarters were in Selangor (29% of total), Kuala Lumpur (25% of total) and Johor (21% of total). In the past 4 quarters, non-landed starts accounted for close to 98% of the starts in Kuala Lumpur. We see a fairly equal split between landed and non-landed starts in Selangor during the 3Q2012-2Q2013 period. In Johor, the split between landed and non-landed starts during the same period was 55:45. Page 3 of 6
20 Sep 2013 Units 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 - Starts and Completions (excluding low cost units) Starts - Landed Completions - Landed Starts - Non Landed Completions - Non Landed Incoming supply highest ever. Apart from the starts and completions data, we also took a closer look at the incoming supply data for 2Q2013 (refer to Incoming Supply tables). Incoming supply comprises units where the physical construction works are in progress. This includes starts and projects with certificates of fitness (CF)/temporary certificates of fitness (TCF) that had not been issued during the review period. The incoming supply figure represents the cumulative total and includes delayed units. Note that incoming supply data in 2Q2013 (654,563 units) is the highest ever historically (based on quarterly data since 2002). Prior to this, the high was in 2Q2006 (642,935 units). Of Malaysia s total incoming supply at end-2q2013, 22% was located in Selangor, followed by 17% in Johor and 9% in Negeri Sembilan. In terms of housing types, the largest incoming supply in Selangor is terrace houses, which account for 32% of the state total, followed by condominiums/apartments at 24%. In Johor, the largest incoming supply is terrace homes, which constitute 40% of the state total, followed by flats at 14% and serviced apartments at 13%. In Negeri Sembilan, the bulk of the incoming supply is terrace homes, which account for 55% of state total. Incoming Supply Landed Residential Units by Type 2Q 2013p Terrace Semi- Detached Detached Town House Cluster Low Cost House Subtotal Page 4 of 6 Kuala Lumpur 1,763 479 386 171 - - 2,799 Putrajaya 413 272 36 - - - 721 Labuan 86 18 5 - - - 109 Selangor 46,102 13,599 5,609 3,603 3,372 351 72,636 Johor 45,597 8,150 2,328 472 3,694 5,553 65,794 Penang 15,531 5,320 2,557 677 1,659 1,146 26,890 Perak 23,376 4,910 2,088 306 1,065 3,890 35,635 N. Sembilan 31,506 3,905 7,462 1,117 183 3,627 47,800 Melaka 8,628 3,358 2,103 190 144 88 14,511 Kedah 18,447 10,925 1,983 80 148 7,127 38,710 Pahang 11,556 5,764 1,654 60 56 6,117 25,207 Terengganu 5,581 2,980 5,705 154 24 7,412 21,856 Kelantan 9,235 1,004 2,806 - - 607 13,652 Perlis 1,487 828 140-200 163 2,818 Sabah 10,615 1,351 322 120 108 1,651 14,167 Sarawak 14,198 3,431 139 28 107 1,747 19,650 Malaysia 244,121 66,294 35,323 6,978 10,760 39,479 402,955
20 Sep 2013 Incoming Supply Non-Landed Residential Units by Type 2Q 2013p Flat Service Apartment Condominiu m/apartment SOHO Low Cost Flat Subtotal Kuala Lumpur 374 21,951 22,034 949 436 45,744 Putrajaya - - 785 - - 785 Labuan - - 240 - - 240 Selangor 7,490 16,734 34,630 660 13,893 73,407 Johor 15,743 14,756 12,256-5,034 47,789 Penang 7,619 869 8,553-4,145 21,186 Perak 240-2,131-80 2,451 N. Sembilan 603 42 5,904-3,283 9,832 Melaka 182 2,072 1,520-1,212 4,986 Kedah 357-406 - 2,379 3,142 Pahang 948 1,027 3,605-445 6,025 Terengganu 64-33 - 2,851 2,948 Kelantan 1,000 457 1,509-160 3,126 Perlis - - 746 - - 746 Sabah 7,452-10,937 1,665 6,085 26,139 Sarawak 144-2,030-888 3,062 Malaysia 42,216 57,908 107,319 3,274 40,891 251,608 Summary Incoming Supply of Landed and Non-landed Residential Units 2Q 2013p Landed Non-landed Total Incoming Supply % Landed % Nonlanded Kuala Lumpur 2,799 45,744 48,543 5.8% 94.2% Putrajaya 721 785 1,506 47.9% 52.1% Labuan 109 240 349 31.2% 68.8% Selangor 72,636 73,407 146,043 49.7% 50.3% Johor 65,794 47,789 113,583 57.9% 42.1% Penang 26,890 21,186 48,076 55.9% 44.1% Perak 35,635 2,451 38,086 93.6% 6.4% N. Sembilan 47,800 9,832 57,632 82.9% 17.1% Melaka 14,511 4,986 19,497 74.4% 25.6% Kedah 38,710 3,142 41,852 92.5% 7.5% Pahang 25,207 6,025 31,232 80.7% 19.3% Terengganu 21,856 2,948 24,804 88.1% 11.9% Kelantan 13,652 3,126 16,778 81.4% 18.6% Perlis 2,818 746 3,564 79.1% 20.9% Sabah 14,167 26,139 40,306 35.1% 64.9% Sarawak 19,650 3,062 22,712 86.5% 13.5% Malaysia 402,955 251,608 654,563 61.6% 38.4% Page 5 of 6
20 Sep 2013 Annual house demand based on natural population increase. The total population in Malaysia stood at 29.3 million at end-2012. With reference to the Average Household Size table, we see that the average household size in Malaysia fell to 4.31 persons in 2010 from 5.22 in 1980 due to rising urbanisation. The average household size is expected to continue to decline over time, in line with developed countries. The average household size in Singapore was 3.53 persons in 2012 (Department of Statistics, Singapore) and 2.59 persons in the United States (2010 statistics from United States Census Bureau). By assuming population growth of 1.3% (actual population growth rate in 2011 and 2012) in the next 3 years and average household size of 4 persons, home demand would be close to 100,000 units per annum. Average Household Size 1980 1991 2000 2010 Malaysia 5.22 4.92 4.62 4.31 Kuala Lumpur 4.87 4.69 4.24 3.72 Selangor 5.33 4.93 4.59 3.93 Johor 5.50 4.89 4.51 4.17 Penang 5.48 5.00 4.38 3.94 Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, HSR Research Commonly Used Abbreviations & Glossary 2Q2013p preliminary 2Q figures MOF Ministry of Finance Malaysia CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate Mean the arithmetic average of a set of numbers Median is the middle value in the list of numbers Penny Yaw, CFA; (pennyyaw@hsr.com.sg) This report is for information purposes and has been prepared by HSR Research based on sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of HSR Research as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The company and its directors and staff may have an interest in the properties mentioned. Issuance of the report by HSR Research is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the properties covered in the report and HSR Research shall not be responsible for any consequential loss or damage, whether direct or indirect. Page 6 of 6