RESIDENTIAL MONITORING REPORT 2013
Table of Contents Title Page # Title Page # List of Tables ii 6.7 Rental Market - Townhome and Apart ment Rents 21 List of Figures iii 7.0 Other Housing Demands and Trends 22 List of Appendices iv 7.1 Affordable Housing 23-24 Executive Summary v 7.2 B-Home: Home Ownership Program 25 1.0 Introduction 1 7.3 Social Housing 26 2.0 Population and Household Growth 2 7.4 Post Secondary Housing 27-28 3.0 Residential Construction 3 Appendices 29-33 3.1 Residential Construction - Wards 4 3.2 Residential Construction - Building Permits 5 4.0 Built Boundary and Greenfield Monitoring 6 4.1 Built Boundary 7 4.2 Greenfield 8 4.3 Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) 9 5.0 Future Land Supply 10 5.1 Intensification Potential Units Short Term (2021) 11 5.2 Short Term Land Supply 12 5.3 Long Term Land Supply 13 6.0 Market Trends 14 6.1 CMHC - Housing Starts 15 6.2 CMHC - Housing Completions 16 6.3 CMHC - Housing Absorbed 17 6.4 MLS - Single and Semi Detached Unit Sales 18 6.5 MLS - Residential Sales 19 6.6 Rental Market Vacancy Rates 20 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page i
List of Tables Table # Title Page # 1 New Residential Units Constructed by Ward 2004-2013 4 2 Residential Construction: Permits Issued and Permit Value by Dwelling Type 1999-2013 5 3 Built Boundary and Greenfield Monitoring: Total Units Constructed and Percent Distribution 2007-2013 6 4 Built Boundary: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 7 5 Greenfield: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 8 6 Urban Growth Centre - Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2008-2013 9 7 Intensification Potential Units Short Term (2021) 11 8A Short Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average 12 8B Short Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy 12 9A Long Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average 13 9B Long Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy 13 10 Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Starts by Total Units 2004-2013 15 11 Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Tenure 2011-2013 15 12 Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Tenure 2011-2013 16 13 Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Completions 2009-2013 16 14 MLS Residential Units Sold Composition 2013 19 15 Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rates 2011-2013 20 16 CMHC: Townhome Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type 2012-2013 21 17 CMHC: Apartment Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type 2012-2013 21 18 Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Completed 23 19 Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Pending Construction Completion 24 20 Brant-Brantford: B-Home - Home Ownership Program 25 21 Social Housing Waiting Lists by Persons 2005-2013 26 22 Social Housing Applications 2005-2013 26 23 Laurier Brantford Off-Campus Housing 2013 28 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page ii
List of Figures Figure # Title Page # 1 Population and Household Forecasts 2011-2041 2 2 New Residential Units Constructed by Density (%) 3 3 New Residential Units Constructed 1999-2013 (excluding conversion units) 3 4A New Residential Units Constructed by Ward 2004-2013 4 4B New Residential Units Constructed by Ward 2013 4 5A New Residential Units Constructed in the Built Boundary by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 7 5B New Residential Units Constructed in the Built Boundary by Dwelling Type 2013 7 6A New Residential Units Constructed on Greenfield Lands by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 8 6B New Residential Units Constructed on Greenfield Lands by Dwelling Type 2013 8 7A New Residential Units Constructed in the UGC by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 9 7B New Residential Units Constructed in the UGC by Dwelling Type 2013 9 8 Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Dwelling Type 2013 15 9 Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Dwelling Type 2013 16 10 Brantford CMA: Housing Absorbed (sold) 2009-2013 17 11 Brantford MLS: Total Single and Semi Detached Units Sold Annually 2004-2013 18 12 Brantford MLS: Single and Semi Detached Average Value of Units Sold Annually 2004-2013 13 Brantford MLS: Total Residential Sales by Housing Form 2013 19 14 Brantford CMA: Apartment Vacancy Rates 2004-2013 20 18 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page iii
List of Appendices Appendix # Title Page # 1 Ward Boundaries 29 2 Official Plan Schedule 1-2 Growth Management Plan 30 3 Location of Residential Development in the Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) 31 4 Residential Monitoring Map 32 5 Land Supply Methodology 33 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Residential Construction In 2013 there were 308 new residential units constructed in the City of Brantford. The majority of units constructed were single detached dwellings and townhomes which represented 54% and 38% of the total residential units constructed. The total residential units constructed in 2013 was 21% below the 15 year annual average of 389 units. This decrease may be attributed to a decline in the construction of single detached dwellings and other low density forms including semi-detached and duplexes. Over a 15 year period, the annual total of low density units constructed has declined by approximately 100 units, whereas, medium density units has increased by 20 units annually and high density units have been stable. The total number of residential building permits issued in 2013 was 194. This figure was above the 5 year annual average of 187 permits issued. Between 2009 and 2013, the issuance of residential building permits in the City has been below the historic 10 year annual average of 274 permits and the 15 year annual average of 295 permits. The average residential permit value in 2013 was $198,582 which is 8% above the 5 year average of $183,685. Places to Grow (2006) The Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006) established an intensification target that requires municipalities to achieve a minimum of 40% of residential construction within the built boundary by 2015 and each year after. In 2013, 32% of the City s residential construction occurred within the built-boundary and 68% was in Greenfield areas. This marks two consecutive years in which the City has been below its intensification target. Provincial Policy Statement 2014 Under the Provincial Policy Statement 2014, municipalities must maintain at all times a 3-year short term supply of land available and a 10-year long term supply for residential development at all times. The City has a total short term supply of 3.0 to 8.3 years and a total long term supply of 9 to 23 years depending on the rate of growth (See Section 5.0). Market Trends Market Trends data from the CMHC indicate that the Brantford CMA and other surrounding CMA s such as Guelph, Hamilton, Kitchener, and London all had below average years for new residential construction starts. In 2013, 396 residential units were started in the Brantford CMA which is 12% below the historic 10 year average of 449. The total new residential units completed was 426, which is 8% above the 5 year annual average of 395. The annual total of new homes constructed in the Brantford CMA is still well below that of surrounding CMA s. The average price of new single detached homes in the Brantford CMA has risen significantly in recent years. According to CMHC, the average price of a newly constructed home rose by $124,000 or 44% between 2009 and 2012. In 2013, the average price of a new single detached home in the Brantford CMA declined to $385, 588 which is 5% below the 2012 peak of $406, 176. The average price of resale homes in 2013 according to MLS data was $264,419; this figure represents all housing forms (i.e. singles, semi s, townhomes, and apartments). The average price of a single detached home, which is the most prevalent housing form in the City, was $282,765 in 2013. Affordable Housing The City s target of 180 new affordable housing units built annually is not being achieved. Through the City s affordable housing program, no projects were completed in 2013. In 2014, one project is scheduled for completion with an estimated unit count of 4. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page v
1.0 INTRODUCTION City Council, in its Community Strategic Action Plan, has outlined the following long term goal: Brantford will be known as a City that manages growth wisely. In addition, Section 13.3 of the Official Plan provides policy direction for the City to maintain a residential monitoring system. The official plan outlines the following information to be included in the monitoring system: An analysis of the City s population growth and structure; A review of available residential units within the municipality by type and status within the planning approval process; An examination of special housing requirements, including housing for persons with disabilities, senior citizens, low and moderate income groups, and emergency housing; An assessment of annual housing production by residential unit and type; and An assessment of the extent to which the affordable housing targets of the municipality have been met. The Residential Monitoring Report is an essential tool in monitoring current and forecasted residential growth trends in the City. The report provides information regarding the City s building stock, future land supply, housing market trends, conformance with Provincial policies, and other housing demands and trends. The primary objectives of this report are: To analyze demographic, economic, and construction trends; To assist City Council in assessing the effectiveness of housing related policies and regulations contained in its Official Plan and Zoning By-law; and To inform local residents, the development industry and other interested individuals of local housing activity. The 2013 Residential Monitoring Report provides an analysis of the residential growth and market trends within the City of Brantford and examines the status of the City in regards to meeting the population, density, and land supply targets outlined in the Provincial Policy Statement (2005) and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006). CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 1
2.0 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Amendment #2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe was approved by the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing in June of 2013. The amendment provides population and employment forecasts for municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe over the next 30 years. Section 2.2.1.1 of the Growth Plan requires municipalities to use the growth forecasts to plan and manage growth. Forecasted PPU 2011 2.56 The new amendment forecasts the City of Brantford s population to grow by 70% (2.3% annually) to a population of 163,000 by 2041. In addition, the number of total occupied households is projected to increase by 72% (2.4% annually) to 64,450 by 2041. It is important to note that household growth is expected to slightly out pace population growth, which indicates that the average household size and persons per unit (PPU) will decrease in the City. 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2.56 2.54 2.53 2.52 2.53 2.53 The projected growth in population and occupied households envisioned by the Growth Plan are well above the historic growth rates experienced in the City. To achieve the projected level of growth within the allotted timeframe the City would require an annual growth rate of approximately 898 units. While this rate of growth is high, the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden horseshoe requires municipalities to plan for the forecasted levels of growth, when considering land use and infrastructure planning. Figure 1 - Population and Household Forecasts 2011-2041 Note: All population figures include a Census undercount of 3.5% Source: Amendment #2 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe - Technical Report June 2013 and Statistics Canada: 2011 Census, 2012, City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 2
3.0 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Residential construction in the City has fluctuated with periods of highs and lows over the past 15 years. Between 1999 and 2001, residential construction in the City was relatively low. Construction activity significantly increased between 2002-2008. The increase may have been attributed to factors such as the completion of the Highway 403 extension to Brantford and a strong economy. As of 2009, residential construction has generally decreased in the City, reaching the lowest point of the decade in 2009 with only 244 units constructed. The decline may be attributed to factors such as the economic downturn. Figure 2 - New Residential Units Constructed by Density (%) In 2013, 308 new residential units in new residential structures were constructed in the City. The total new residential units constructed is 21% below the 15 year average of 389 units and represents the second lowest total of new residential unit constructed in the last 10 years. Between 1999 and 2013, the density of new units constructed has shifted. Over the 15 year period the average number of low density units constructed was 65%. However, in the last 5 years, this figure has declined to 52% as the proportion of low density units constructed has decreased, while the proportion of medium density dwellings has increased. It should be noted that this shift may be attributed to the availability of serviced Greenfield lands to support low density development and Provincial policy direction that supports intensification, which typically results in the development of higher density forms. Figure 3 - New Residential Units Constructed 1999-2013 (excluding conversion units) Source: City of Brantford - Planning Department, 2014 Low Density - Single detached, semi detached, duplex, triplex Medium Density - Townhomes, row-house, fourplex High Density - Apartments, other multiple unit dwellings CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 3
3.1 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION - WARDS Table 1 displays the location, by Ward, of new residential units constructed in the City between 2004 and 2013. Over the last 10 years, 85% of the residential units constructed in the City occurred in Ward 1 and Ward 4. The majority of Greenfield land for residential development are located in Ward 1 and Ward 4. A modest level of construction for residential units occurred in Ward 2 and Ward 5 over the 10 year period, while Ward 3 had the lowest level of residential construction. In 2013, similar trends occurred as the majority of residential development occurred in Ward 1 and Ward 4. Figure 4A illustrates that 59% of all residential development occurred in Ward 1, while 22% occurred in Ward 4 in 2013. Residential development in Ward 2 increased above the 10 year historic average, which may be attributed to adjustments to the City s Ward boundaries. Ward 2 has increased in size with the inclusion on the City s downtown, while Ward 1 was decreased by removing the downtown and the City s Northwest. See Appendix 1 with a comparison of the Ward boundaries. Table 1- New Residential Unit Constructed by Ward 2004-2013 WARDS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Ward 1 453 334 377 250 267 134 192 175 210 179 2,571 Ward 2 15 8 24 8 15 9 21 11 6 42 159 Ward 3 3 3 69 4 0 2 0 0 2 12 95 Ward 4 44 163 118 208 118 76 115 99 94 71 1,106 Ward 5 35 78 24 26 29 52 64 52 8 15 383 Total 550 586 612 496 429 273 392 337 320 319 4,314 Figure 4A - New Residential Unit Constructed by Ward 2013 Figure 4B - New Residential Unit Constructed by Ward 2013 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 4
3.2 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION BUILDING PERMITS Table 2 outlines the 15 year history of building permits issued, permit values, and average permit values for residential construction in the City. The total permits issued for new residential construction in 2013 was 194 which is 3.7% above the 5 year average of 187 permits issued. The increase in total permits issued is attributed to a minor increase in permits issued for single detached dwellings and multi-residential permits. In 2013, the average permit value for residential construction was $198,583. This figure represents an 8% increase over the 5 year average of $183,685. The average permit values for each residential classification increased over the 5 year average. A key trend of note over the past 15 years is the decrease in total permits issued for residential construction. Between 1999 and 2013, total building permits issued annually declined by approximately 34% to 37%. A significant portion of the decline has occurred post 2008, where the City has experienced total residential construction permit issuance below historic figures. Table 2 - Residential Construction: Permits Issued & Permit Value by Dwelling type 1999-2013 Year Single Detached Duplex, Triplex, Fourplex Multiple Residential Total Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) 1999 181 15,780,000 87,182 10 87,000 8,700 60 4,974,000 82,900 251 20,841,000 83,032 2000 178 14,210,000 79,831 18 193,000 10,722 26 2,867,450 110,287 222 17,270,450 77,795 2001 221 18,660,000 84,434 25 569,500 22,780 28 2,727,000 97,393 274 21,956,500 80,133 2002 396 35,092,000 88,616 13 383,000 29,462 45 8,859,000 196,867 454 44,334,000 97,652 2003 396 34,457,000 87,013 16 428,000 26,750 74 8,423,000 113,824 486 43,308,000 89,111 2004 421 42,455,139 100,844 4 535,000 133,750 15 4,213,000 280,867 440 47,203,139 107,280 2005 322 34,046,000 105,733 2 320,000 160,000 29 10,936,000 377,103 353 45,302,000 128,334 2006 359 40,698,000 113,365 2 341,000 170,500 18 5,637,000 313,167 379 46,676,000 123,156 2007 337 41,513,000 123,184 10 1,519,000 151,900 49 6,098,000 124,449 396 49,130,000 124,066 2008 204 24,577,000 120,475 5 810,000 162,000 27 15,511,000 574,481 236 40,898,000 173,297 2009 142 18,332,000 129,099 7 1,100,000 157,143 11 4,284,000 389,455 160 23,716,000 148,225 2010 189 24,887,000 131,677 8 1,730,000 216,250 28 15,943,000 569,393 225 42,560,000 189,156 2011 129 17,737,000 137,496 3 605,000 201,666 26 17,115,000 658,269 158 35,457,000 224,411 2012 181 24,850,000 137,292 4 720,000 180,000 14 5,882,000 420,142 199 31,452,000 158,050 2013 167 25,744,000 154,156 5 1,670,000 334,000 22 11,111,000 505,045 194 38,525,000 198,582 5 Year Avg 162 22,310,000 137,944 5 1,165,000 217,812 20 10,867,000 508,461 187 34,342,000 183,685 10 Year Avg 15 Year Avg 245 29,483,914 125,332 5 935,000 186,721 24 9,673,000 421,237 274 40,091,914 157,456 255 27,535,876 112,026 9 734,033 131,042 31 8,305,363 320,909 295 36,575,273 133,485 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 5
4.0 BUILT BOUNDARY & GREENFIELD MONITORING The Built Boundary is a line that demarcates the areas of a municipality developed prior to the implementation of the Provincial Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in June, 2006. The Built Boundary enables the Province and municipalities to measure intensification, infill, and redevelopment within the built-up-area. It also delineates Greenfield areas, which are defined as lands outside of the Built Boundary with a potential for development. One of the key policy objectives outlined in the Growth Plan is the establishment of intensification targets. The targets specify that by 2015 and each year after, a minimum of 40% of new residential development will occur inside of the builtup-areas of each upper or single tier municipality and Greenfield development will be planned to have a density of 50 residents and/or jobs per hectare by 2031. The City of Brantford s Official Plan identifies the Built Boundary and Greenfield Areas for the City consistent with the boundaries identified in the Growth Plan (see Appendix 2). Table 3 outlines the historic distribution of new units constructed in the Built Boundary. In 2013, the City did not meet the 40% infill target for the second consecutive year, with 32% of all new development occurring within the City s Built Boundary. Since implementation in 2006, the average rate of infill development within the Built Boundary is 41%, which is slightly above the required target. However, a significant contributor to the City s infill success has been the City s Affordable Housing Program (AH), which subsidizes the development of private rental housing projects through funding from senior levels of government. The projects are typically medium - high density apartments units. If AH projects were removed from the annual infill totals, only 35% of the City s total residential construction would be in the Built Boundary. Going forward, to ensure the City consistently achieves the infill target, intensification and infill development should be encouraged in appropriate area and be compatible with the existing neighbourhood. In 2013 the City approved implementation policy from it s intensification strategy, which supports mixed use buildings as-of-right in designated intensification corridors and introduces urban design guidelines to evaluate intensification proposals. This policy framework should support intensification to occur in appropriate areas and built forms compatible with existing areas. Table 3- Built Boundary & Greenfield Monitoring : Total Units Constructed & Percent Distribution 2007-2013 Greenfield Units (%) Built Boundary Units (%) Greenfield Units Built Boundary Units Total Units 2007 59% 41% 307 211 518 2008 68% 32% 298 140 438 2009 49% 51% 137 143 280 2010 48% 52% 191 203 394 2011 53% 47% 177 160 337 2012 62% 38% 206 128 334 2013 68% 32% 214 99 313 Average 59% 41% 1,530 1,084 2,614 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 6
4.1 BUILT BOUNDARY Table 4 displays a historic breakdown of units constructed in the Built Boundary from 2007-2013. Between 2007 and 2013, a total of 1,084 new units were constructed. The majority of units constructed over the period were apartments, townhomes, and single detached units. In 2013, townhomes and apartments were the primary built form which representing 41% and 33% of the total units constructed in the Built Boundary. It should be noted that no apartment units were constructed for the first time since this dataset has been tracked. In addition, the Other category which consists of additions to existing dwellings, represented 14% of the units constructed. The diverse mix of housing forms constructed in the Built Boundary may be attributed to municipal and provincial policies which encourage intensification/infill and the efficient use of existing lands and infrastructure to provide a mix of dwelling forms. As developers look for redevelopment opportunities within the Built Boundary, it is likely that higher density housing forms will be the most cost effective option. The City should maintain a policy framework that supports intensification that is appropriate and compatible with existing areas. Table 4 - Built Boundary: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 Built Boundary SD Semi s Plexes(2-6 units) TH APT Other Total 2007 67 20 1 50 41 32 211 2008 42 6 10 64 18 0 140 2009 41 12 0 20 70 0 143 2010 27 8 19 77 72 0 203 2011 36 6 2 34 65 17 160 2012 15 6 0 27 73 7 128 2013 33 8 4 40 0 14 99 Total 261 66 36 312 339 70 1,084 Figure 5A - New Residential Units Constructed in the Built Boundary by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 Figure 5B - New Residential Units Constructed in the Built Boundary by Dwelling Type 2013 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 7
4.2 GREENFIELD The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe requires that by the year 2041 all development on Greenfield lands, both employment and residential, must be planned to achieve a combined overall density of 50 people and/or jobs per hectare. Recent calculation estimate that on residential Greenfield lands the City has an estimated density of 42 people and jobs per hectare. However, the most recent plans of subdivision for residential development on Greenfield lands are achieving a density of a minimum of 50 people and jobs per hectare. Table 5 displays total units constructed on designated Greenfield lands between 2007-2013. Over this period 1,530 units were constructed. Historically, new development on Greenfield lands has consisted primarily of single detached units (72%), townhomes (20%) and apartments at (8%). Figure 6B illustrates the percent distribution of new units constructed on Greenfield lands in 2013. During this period all new units constructed on Greenfield lands were single detached dwellings (63%) and townhomes (37%). These figures deviate from historic trends, as more townhomes being constructed. This trend may be attributed to a lack of serviced lands available for single detached dwellings and neighbourhood plans being built-out. It is recommended that the City continue to monitor residential development on Greenfield lands to ensure that higher density housing forms are built in conformity with existing secondary plans. Table 5- Greenfield - Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 Greenfield SD Semi s Plexes TH APT Total 2007 270 0 0 37 0 307 2008 162 0 0 16 120* 298 2009 105 0 0 32 0 137 2010 167 0 0 24 0 191 2011 93 0 0 84 0 177 2012 167 2 0 37 0 206 2013 134 0 0 80 0 214 Total 1,098 2 0 310 120 1,530 Figure 6A - New Residential Units Constructed on Greenfield Lands by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 Figure 6B - New Residential Units Constructed on Greenfield Lands by Dwelling Type 2013 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 * Construction of a seniors residence CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 8
4.3 URBAN GROWTH CENTRE (DOWNTOWN) The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe has designated the downtown area of the City of Brantford as an Urban Growth Centre (UGC). This area is to be planned to accommodate a significant share of population and employment growth by achieving a minimum density target of 150 people and jobs per hectare by 2031. Based on the 2011 Census, it is estimated that the current density in the Urban Growth Centre is 68 people/jobs per hectare. To achieve the density target, the City will require 2,900-4,000 new residential units (145-200 units annually)/ 6,000 residents and an additional 3,000 jobs in the (UGC). Between 2008 and 2013 residential development in the UGC has been low. Over the five-year period approximately 189 new units have been constructed. Table 6 shows that the dominant form of development is apartments in mixed use buildings (57%) and additions (32%) which consists of low density dwellings being converted to accommodate additional dwelling units. Currently, major residential developments in the UGC is primarily directed at accommodating post secondary students who attend institution in the UGC. In 2013, there was a diverse range of units constructed in the UGC, as illustrated by Figure 7B. The built forms constructed were primarily associated with single detached and semi detached dwellings. It should be noted that to achieve the density target for the UGC, higher density forms of development are required. Appendix 3 of this report illustrates the location of new residential development in the Urban Growth Centre between 2008-2013. Table 6- Urban Growth Centre- Units Constructed by Dwelling Type 2008-2013 UGC SD Semi s Plexes TH Mixed Use Apt Additions Total 2008 0 0 6 0 0 17 23 2009 2 0 0 0 0 16 18 2010 0 0 0 0 40 2 42 2011 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 2012 1 4 0 0 68 1 74 2013 3 2 3 0 0 4 12 Total 6 6 9 0 108 60 189 Figure 7A - New Units Constructed in the UGC by Dwelling Type 2007-2013 Figure 7B - New Units Constructed in the UGC by Dwelling Type 2013 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 9
5.0 FUTURE LAND SUPPLY The Provincial Policy Statement (2014) requires that municipalities maintain a three-year short term and ten-year long term supply of land to accommodate residential growth at all times. Short term land supply is comprised of appropriately zoned land to accommodate residential intensification or redevelopment and land in draft approved and registered plans of subdivision. Land classified under the short-term housing supply category is readily available to the market to meet new housing demand, without major constraints. The long-term residential land supply includes the short-term units, plus vacant sites that have a general capability for future residential development. The Official Plan designates some of the sites as Residential Areas. However, the sites are not immediately ready for residential development, as significant servicing and/or environmental constraints can affect the ability of the sites to be developed and the number of potential units that can be constructed. Subdivision applications received by the City for consideration which have not been draft approved are typically classified within the long-term land supply. Redevelopment sites include: residential conversions throughout the City, former commercial sites (grey fields), brownfield sites, and the City s Urban Growth Centre. Appendix 4 - Residential Monitoring Map displays active development applications and potential residential development sites in the City. To effectively evaluate the City s short and long term residential land supply, the rate of subdivision construction and capacity for new dwelling units within Brantford must be evaluated. The dwelling units are categorized by density type. The permitted uses for the density types are defined in the City of Brantford s Official Plan as: Residential Area - Low Density: Permitted uses include single-detached, semi-detached, duplex and triplex residential dwellings. Residential Area - Medium Density: Permitted uses include townhouse, row house, fourplex, low-rise apartments, and other forms of low-rise multiple unit dwellings. Residential Area - High Density: Permitted uses include apartments and other forms of multiple-unit dwellings. The short and long term land supply needs for the City of Brantford are calculated using two growth scenarios. The first scenario represents a 5 year annual average of the City s rate of growth which is 330 new residential units. The second scenario uses the growth forecasts from the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Amendment #2) which requires the City to achieve a population of 163,000 by 2041. The population translates to 898 new residential units created annually between 2011 and 2041. Each growth scenario is subdivided to calculate the land supply for low, medium, and high density units. (See Appendix 5 for methodology). CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 10
5.1 INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL UNITS SHORT TERM 2021 The City of Brantford has completed an Intensification Strategy and Implementation Plan, which was adopted by Council in September 2012. As part of the strategy, a supply and demand report was completed to identify the potential for intensification in the City s designated Urban Growth Centre and Intensification Corridors and ensure that the City can meet the intensification targets established in the Growth Plan (See section 4.0 to 4.3). It is anticipated that the City will need 3,500-4,000 residential units through intensification development to achieve its 40% intensification target within the Built Boundary, with 2,900-4,000 of these residential units being located in the Urban Growth Centre by the 2031A growth target. As the Urban Growth Centre is within the built boundary, achieving the high range of new residential units for the UGC target will help ensure that that built boundary target is also achieved. Table 7 displays the short term (2021) intensification potential in the City. The City s Urban Growth Centre and Intensification Corridors have significant potential for mixed-use development and there are additional opportunities for other housing forms (i.e. low and medium density) on brownfields, greyfields, and other underutilized parcels in the City. The City has the intensification potential to achieve its built-boundary density targets as outlined in the Growth Plan. It should be noted that not all sites with intensification potential will be developed. There must be the appropriate level of market interest, land prices, available municipal servicing, and municipal support for higher density forms of development. In the Fall of 2013, City Council approved an Official Plan and Zoning Bylaw Amendment which implements the recommendations for the Intensification Strategy. The policy supports as-of-right zoning for mixed use developments between 6-8 storeys in the City s designated Intensification Corridors. The policy direction provides an incentive for intensification development to occur in the City s preferred built form and location. The City should monitor and report on development within its intensification corridors to ensure that the new policy directions are being utilized to help the City actualize its intensification potential. Table 7 - Intensification Potential Units - Short Term (2021) Intensification - Short Term (2021) Potential Units Housing Form Urban Growth Centre (downtown) Intensification Corridors Brownfields and other parcels Total Units LD 0 37 360 397 MD 56 187 706 949 HD 0 110 388 498 Mixed Use 3,411 3,538 39 6,988 Total 3,467 3,872 1,493 8,832 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 11
5.2 SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY The Provincial Policy Statements (2014) short term land supply policy requires municipalities to maintain a three year supply of land with servicing capacity within its municipal boundary. Table 8(A-B) displays the break down of short term land supply in the City using two growth forecasts. The first scenario is the 5-year annual average which represents the City s five year average for new residential units constructed and the second scenario represents the average annual units required to achieve the City s 2041 population target forecasted in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. It should be noted that the City s Urban Growth Centre (UGC) and Intensification Corridors have substantial redevelopment potential, which can contribute to the short term land supply. Table 8A displays the land supply potential using the average annual units built over the past 5 years. The City has a short term land supply of 8.3 years which is in compliance with the 3 year short term land supply policy set in the PPS, 2014. Table 8B displays the short term land supply using the Growth Plan forecasts. The projection indicates that the City would have a 3.0 year supply which is the minimum short-term land supply target. It should be noted that the land supply for low density units is considerably below the 3 year marker at 1.0 years. Overall, the City has an adequate supply of land to meet the short term land supply policy of the PPS, 2014. However, the short term supply of land for low density units is below the PPS, 2014 target. If residential construction increases to the levels forecasted in the Growth Plan, the City will need to increase its short term land supply by having serviced lands available for residential development and supporting intensification development in the designated UGC and intensification corridors. It should be noted that the majority of the City s residential Greenfield lands, located in the southwest and governed by the West of Conklin Secondary Plan are currently not serviced. Once these lands are serviced they will move into the City s short term land supply and it is anticipated that the rate of Greenfield development will increase due to the increased availability of serviced Greenfield housing options. Table 8A - Short Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY: 5-YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE UNITS BUILT - 330 UNITS/YEAR Housing Form % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Short Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 56% 185 575 3.1 MD 29% 96 877 9.3 HD 15% 50 1,235 24.9 Total 100% 330 2,723 8.3 Table 8B - Short Term Land Supply: Growth Plan SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY: GROWTH PLAN 898 UNITS/YEAR Housing Form % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Short Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 57% 512 575 1.1 MD 23% 207 877 4.3 HD 20% 180 1,235 6.9 Total 100% 898 2,723 3.0 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 * Totals may be off due to rounding CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 12
5.3 LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY The PPS, 2014 long term land supply policy requires municipalities to maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years. Figure (9A-9B) displays the City s long term land supply projections using two growth scenarios. The 5-year annual average forecast displayed as Table 9A indicates that the long term land supply available in the City is 23.2 years which is above the 10 year requirement. The Growth Plan forecast displayed as table 9B indicates an overall supply of 8.5 years which is below the 10 year marker. It should be noted that there are limited opportunities for the municipality to augment the land supply for residential development within the current municipal boundary, as secondary and neighbourhood plans have been established for a majority of the residential Greenfield lands and the City is deficient in its supply of lands for commercial and industrial development. The intensification potential of the City as discussed in Section 5.1 shows that the City has significant redevelopment potential within its supply (2021) to achieve the intensification targets. However, redevelopment through intensification primarily provides medium and high density housing forms which occur as a mechanism of market demand, the price of land, and policy support. The City will have to ensure adequate levels of intensification is achieved to meet provincial targets. While the City has significant intensification potential, the long term supply of land to support Greenfield development using the Growth Plan scenario is low. The City is currently engaged in boundary negotiation with the County of Brant to annex lands. The annexed lands will increase the supply of Greenfield land and allow the City to plan for a range of housing options and plan to meet the growth targets in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe as required. The City s long term land supply is adequately meeting the PPS 10 year land supply requirement using the annual average scenario. However, using the Growth Plan scenario which the City is required to plan for, the long term land supply is below the 10 year requirement. It should be noted that while residential development is slow within the City, it is anticipated that the complete servicing of the City s last remaining Greenfield lands (southwest) which is anticipated to be complete by 2016-2017 will increase the rate of residential development, thus putting increased pressure on the City s available residential land supply. Table 9A - Long Term Land Supply: 5-Year Annual Average LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY: ANNUAL AVERAGE UNITS BUILT 330 UNITS/YEAR Table 9B- Long Term Land Supply: Growth Plan LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY: GROWTH PLAN 898 UNITS/YEAR Housing Form % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Long Term Growth Units Land Supply Years Housing Form % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Long Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 56% 185 2,892 15.6 MD 29% 96 2,581 27.0 HD 15% 50 2,197 44.4 Total 100% 330 7,670 23.2 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2014 * Totals may be off due to rounding LD 57% 512 2,892 5.6 MD 23% 207 2,581 12.5 HD 20% 180 2,197 12.2 Total 100% 898 7,670 8.5 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 13
6.0 MARKET TRENDS This section represents market analysis information provided by various sources such as: The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). CMHC provides information on housing trends, conditions and key factors driving the Canadian housing markets. Discrepancy between the CMHC data and statistics provided in other sections of this report are based on the tracking process. The numbers referenced in other sections of this report are based on residential building permits issued by the City of Brantford Building Department. Once a building permit is issued, construction on the site may not start immediately and could be held up indefinitely. CMHC data for this report focuses on new homes within the Brantford Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)*. The Brantford CMA is comprised of The City of Brantford and Brant County. Multiple Listing Systems (MLS) data. The Brantford Regional Real Estate Association provides MLS data. The listings are limited to single and semi-detached units only. The CHMC data refers to three primary housing tenures: Freehold: Ownership of land and buildings (house) by one person (or two, such as joint ownership by spouses). Detached and semi-detached homes, duplexes and townhouses are usually owned freehold. Condominium: A unit, usually in a high-rise or low-rise, or a townhouse that can be owned. You own the unit you live in and share ownership rights for the common space of the building. Common space includes areas such as corridors, the grounds around the building, and facilities such as a swimming pool and recreation rooms. Condominium owners together control the common areas through an owners association. The association makes decisions about using and maintaining the common space. Rental: Tenant based properties. *Census Metropolitan Area (CMA): is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a large urban area (known as the urban core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more must live in the urban core. To be included in the CMA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 14
6.1 CMHC - HOUSING STARTS The CMHC defines housing starts as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part on the structure. Table10 displays Housing Starts for the Brantford (CMA) and other surrounding CMA s between 2004 and 2013. In 2013, 396 homes were started in the Brantford CMA. Total home starts in 2013 were 12% below the historic 10 year average of 449 units. Table 10 - Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Tenure 2011-2013 Freehold Condominium Rental Units % Units % Units % 2011 277 65% 81 19% 70 16% 2012 364 90% 33 9% 4 1% 2013 354 89% 42 11% 0 0% Figure 8 illustrates the composition of the new units started in the Brantford CMA. Single detached units represented over half of the new homes started (65%) in 2013. Although this is a high proportion, the 2013 figure is below the Brantford CMA s overall housing stock composition of approximately 67-72% single detached units. The emergence of row (town home) units as viable housing options may be the cause of the decrease. Table 11 displays housing starts by tenure, the majority of homes were constructed for freehold tenure (89%) and condominium tenure (11%). Figure 8 - Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Dwelling Type 2013 Compared to other CMA s within close proximity, the home starts in the Brantford CMA is low. In 2013, all of the comparative CMA s experienced a decrease in total home starts when compared to their 10 year averages with the exception of the St. Catherine's/Niagara CMA which experiences a slight increase. Table 11- Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Starts by Total Units 2004-2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg 2013 & Avg (% Diff) Brantford 482 534 409 589 432 317 504 428 402 396 449-11.86 Guelph 1,420 951 864 941 1,087 567 1,021 764 731 890 924-3.64 Hamilton 4,093 3,145 3,043 3,004 3,529 1,860 3,562 2,462 2,969 2,709 3,083-10.82 Kitchener 3,912 3,763 2,599 2,740 2,634 2,298 2,815 2,954 2,900 1,840 2,846-35.34 London 3,078 3,067 3,674 3,141 2,385 2,168 2,079 1,748 2,240 2,163 2,574-15.98 St.Catharines/ Niagara 1,781 1,412 1,294 1,149 1,138 859 1,086 1,110 1,137 1,223 1,219 0.34 Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 15
6.2 CMHC - HOUSING COMPLETIONS Housing completions are defined as the stage at which all proposed construction on the building has been performed; although under some circumstances, a building may be counted as complete where up to 10% of the proposed work remains to be done. Figure 9 - Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Dwelling Type 2013 Table 12 illustrates the distribution of units completed by tenure. The majority of units completed were home-ownership (freehold) units, which correlates with a high proportion of single detached units completed in the Brantford CMA as illustrated on Figure 9. Table 13 displays new Homes Completed in CMA s between 2009 and 2013. In 2013, the total homes completed in the Brantford CMA was 426 units. The figure was 8% above the historic average of 395. The primary type of dwelling units completed were single detached, followed by row (town homes). Compared to other CMA s within close proximity, the number of units completed is well below the other CMA s. Its should be noted that the Brantford CMA and the St. Catherines/Niagara showed a modest increase in completions compared to their 5 year averages, whereas, the other listed CMA s experienced a decrease in 2013. Table 12 - Brantford CMA: Housing Completed by Tenure 2011-2013 Freehold Condominium Rental Units % Units % Units % 2011 300 86% 38 11% 12 3% 2012 292 67% 56 13% 86 20% 2013 348 82% 71 17% 7 2% Table 13 - Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Completions 2009-2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg 2013 & Avg % Diff Brantford 376 388 350 437 426 395 8% Guelph 798 845 758 604 680 737-8% Hamilton 2,721 3,178 2,717 3,169 2,356 2,824-17% Kitchener 2,854 2,440 2,535 2,315 2,052 2,437-16% London 1,510 2,707 2,102 1,667 1,937 1,979-2% St. Catharines/Niagara 917 1,072 933 1,099 1,117 1,025 9% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 16
6.3 CMHC - HOUSING ABSORBED Housing absorbed (sold) is defined as; when a binding, non-conditional agreement is made to buy or rent a dwelling that is newly constructed. Figure 10 displays a price breakdown of all types of single detached units sold by CMA between 2009 and 2013. Historically, the price of new homes in the Brantford CMA has been below the home prices for surrounding CMA s. However, in the past 5 years, the price of new homes in the Brantford CMA has risen considerably. The average price for a new home in the Brantford CMA peaked at $406,176 in 2012. In 2013, the Brantford CMA experienced a modest decrease in the average price of a new single detached unit. The average price of $385,588 was 5% below the 2012 figure. It should be noted that the Brantford CMA and the St, Catherine's/Niagara CMA were the only listed CMA s to experience a decrease in price. Comparatively, the new home prices for a single detached unit in the Brantford CMA is well below comparative CMA s within close proximity such as Hamilton and Kitchener. The CMA remains relatively affordable compared to the listed CMA s. Figure 10 - Brantford CMA: Housing Absorbed (sold) 2009 2013 Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 17
6.4 MLS - Single and Semi Detached Unit Sales Figure 11 illustrates the total single and semi detached resale residential units sold in Brantford between 2009 and 2013. The resale of residential single and semi detached units over the 5 year period has been relatively stable with a range between 1,645-1,797 units sold annually. In 2013, 1,639 units were sold. Figure 11 - Brantford MLS Single and Semi detached Units Sold Annually 2009-2013 It should be noted that due to a systems upgrade at the Brantford Real Estate Board, the months of November and December were not fully reported. Based on historic averages it is estimated that an additional 125 units were not included for the count. The estimated units would result in a total figure of 1,764, which represents the second highest total since 2009. * - Incomplete reporting for the months of November and December. Figure 12 illustrates the average sales value of single and semi detached resale residential units sold in Brantford between 2009 and 2013. The average value of a single and semi detached resale unit is trending upward. Over the 5 year period the average price has increased by approximately $49,740 or 22%. In 2013, the municipality experienced a significant increase in the price of a resale single/semi detached unit. The average price increased by $20,000 or 8%. Figure 12 - Brantford MLS Single and Semi detached Average Value of Units Sold Annually - 2009-2013 The average price of a resale single or semi detached unit is increasing at a moderate pace annually, with the exception of 2013, which appears to be an anomaly. * - Incomplete reporting for the months of November and December. Source: Brantford Real Estate Board, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 18
6.5 MLS - All Residential Sales Table 14 illustrates all MLS sales in the City of Brantford for 2013. In 2013, 1,934 residential units were resold through MLS in the City of Brantford, while 3,204 residential units were listed. This indicates that Brantford has a sellers market as the sales to listing ratio is approximately 60%. The total value of the MLS sale market in the City for 2013 was $511,387,248, with an average resale price of $264,419. It should be noted that dues to system upgrades at the Brantford Real Estate Board the total residential units and total value for the months of November and December are incomplete. In 2013, the majority of resale homes sold were single detached, which represented 77% of the total units resold in the City as illustrated on Figure 13. The high ratio for single detached dwellings may be attributed to the existing housing stock in Brantford, which is primarily comprised of single detached units. Townhomes and semi-detached homes represented 10% and 6% of homes resold respectively. Figure 13 - Brantford MLS Total Residential Sales by Housing Form 2012 Table 14 - MLS Residential Units Sold Composition 2013 Type New Units Listed Sales Total Value Average Sale Price 4 Plex 18 9 $2,950,500 $327,833 Apartment Units 132 66 $9,277,750 $140,572 Single Detached Duplex Semi-detached Townhouse Triplex Total Source: Brantford Real Estate Board, 2014 2,523 1,498 $423,582,016 $282,765 74 32 $6,167,950 $192,748 145 115 $23,109,540 $200,953 290 202 $43,637,992 $216,030 22 12 $2,661,500 $221,792 3,204 1,934 $511,387,248 $264,419 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 19
6.6 Rental Market - Vacancy Rates Vacancy rate measures the supply of unoccupied rental properties. A vacancy rate below 3% is indicative of a shortage of supply in rental housing, while a rate above 3% typically indicates an adequate or over supply. It is important to note that Section 13.2.4 of the Official Plan states that when the City s vacancy rate is above 3% for 3 consecutive years, the conversion of rental units to private condominium ownership can be considered in all parts of the City. In October of 2013, the apartment vacancy rates for the Branford CMA decreased to 2.9%. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reports that the increase in vacancy rate may be due to an increase in renters entering the home ownership segment. Over the last 3 years, rental vacancy rates have not been above 3% for consecutive years. Thus, condominium conversions are not permitted outside of the Core Commercial designation in accordance with the City's Official Plan. Table 15 illustrates the vacancy rates in Ontario CMA s over a 3 year period. The majority of CMA s experienced an increase in vacancy rates, whereas the Brantford CMA s vacancy rate decreased. Table 15 - Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rates 2011-2013 Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rate 2011-2013 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Barrie 1.7 2.0 3.0 Brantford 1.8 3.5 2.9 Greater Sudbury 2.8 2.7 3.4 Guelph 1.1 1.4 1.9 Hamilton 3.4 3.5 3.4 Kingston 1.1 1.7 2.3 K-W 1.7 2.6 2.9 London 3.8 2.1 3.3 Oshawa 1.8 2.1 2.1 Ottawa 1.4 2.5 2.9 Peterborough 3.5 2.7 4.8 St. Cath/Niagara 3.2 4.0 4.1 Thunder Bay 1.7 1.1 2.6 Toronto 1.4 1.7 1.6 Windsor 8.1 7.3 5.9 Ontario 2.2 2.6 2.7 Figure 14 - Brantford CMA: Apartment Vacancy Rates 2004-2013 2011-1.8% 2012-3.5% 2013-2.9% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2013 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 20
6.7 Rental Market - Townhome & Apartment Rents Information on the rental rates for private townhomes and apartments was obtained from data published by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The survey should not be considered exact due to variations in responses to survey questions and to a less than full coverage of the available rental supply. The data provides a broad overview of average rental rates. The average rental rate for a townhome unit in the Brantford CMA increased to $1,090 in 2013, which is a 26% increase over the 2012 average rent. The rent for townhome units increased in all bedroom types. When compared against other CMA s listed, the townhome rental rates changed from being the lowest in 2012 to the second highest in 2013. The average rent for an apartment unit in the Brantford CMA rose to $814 in 2013. This represents a 2% increase over the 2012 figure. The modest increase is on par with increases in the other CMA s listed. It should be noted that the Brantford CMA has the lowest average apartment rental rates compared to the other Ontario CMA s listed. Table 16 - CMHC: Townhome Average Rents Rates by Bedroom Type 2012-2013 Private Townhome Average Rents ($) by Bedroom Type Selected Ontario CMAs October 2012-2013 Sub-Market Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom + Total (CMAs) 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct % Brantford - - - - 780 990 896 1,133 866 1,090 25.9% Guelph ** ** ** ** 1,038 1,050 1,197 1,216 1,157 1,176 1.6% Hamilton ** ** 795 836 1,017 1,026 1,100 1,125 1,060 1,082 2.1% Kitchener 625 ** 784 824 882 936 1,009 1,046 926 977 5.5% London ** - ** ** 873 880 949 964 920 935 1.6% St. Catharines/ Niagara ** ** ** ** 805 860 934 947 887 917 Ontario 503 621 764 790 962 982 1,173 1,210 1,096 1,128 2.9% 3.4% Table 17 - CMHC: Apartment Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type 2012-2013 Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Bedroom Type Selected Ontario CMAs October 2012-2013 Sub-Market Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom Total (CMAs) 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct % Brantford 620 604 728 752 838 835 900 934 800 814 1.8% Guelph 649 655 829 842 941 957 1,078 1,099 897 916 2.1% Hamilton 569 588 735 766 886 932 1,101 1,130 818 854 4.4% Kitchener 644 660 773 810 908 952 1,053 1,127 862 906 5.1% London 575 588 747 752 919 924 1,050 1,090 843 848 0.6% St. Catharines/ Niagara 570 564 718 733 Ontario 759 785 893 912 1,033 1,059 1,280 1,325 975 1,000 2.6% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2013 862 872 953 1012 809 822 1.6% CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 21
7.0 Other Housing Demands & Trends The following section summarizes the various housing demands that fall outside of the conventional owners and renters markets. Areas to be analysed are affordable housing, social housing, shelters, seniors/special needs housing, and student housing. The City of Brantford Housing Department was formed under the Social Housing Reform Act. In 2001, the City of Brantford was designated the Service Manager responsible for administration of social housing in the City of Brantford as well as the County of Brant. The Department works closely with housing providers, community-based service agencies, social housing residents and applicants and the community at large to meet local housing needs. The Housing Department is responsible for administering over 1,900 rental housing units. The City owns and manages approximately 1,122 units and administers an additional 842 units located in the City and the County. The type of rental units include low and high-rise apartment buildings, townhouses, semi-detached and single-detached homes, some of which are accessible for persons with disabilities. The size of the unit varies from a bachelor apartment to a fivebedroom home. The City of Brantford updated its Affordable Housing Strategy in 2009-2010, which is available on-line at www.brantford.ca. The Affordable Housing Strategy provides a more in-depth report on affordable housing and alternative housing demand issues facing Brant Brantford and includes strategies/actions aimed at addressing them. Affordable Housing (AH), for the purpose of this report, shall include low-market rent and even affordable home ownership models that are geared towards individuals and families who require accommodation. Affordable Rental Housing means housing, with a rent that would be affordable to those households within the lowest 35 percent of the income distribution (35 th percentile) for the City of Brantford and the County of Brant. Social Housing consists of dwellings that are owned by a municipality, non-profit group, or cooperative community group. The purpose of social housing is to offer safe, reasonably priced housing to individuals and families. The Brantford Housing Department has a variety of participants in its social housing program. Some residents pay market rent and some residents receive assistance with their rent. This assistance is also known as rent-geared-income (RGI) as the rent is determined by the amount of gross household income CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 22
7.1 Affordable Housing (AH) In 2013, zero units were completed under the affordable housing program. Between 2006 and 2013, the affordable housing program has created 438 rental units within the City of Brantford and County of Brant. The City of Brantford s Official Plan Section 13.2.1 sets an affordable housing construction target of 180 new units annually with a distribution of 85% rental and 15% homeownership. The target was established in the City s Affordable Housing Strategy to support the growing need for affordable housing. The affordable housing targets established in the Official Plan are not being met. According to the City s most recent Affordable Housing Strategy, 13% of the City s population or 12,225 residents (2005 Census data) were classified as living with low income. Previous sections in this report have illustrated that the cost of housing (ownership and rental) in the City of Brantford is rising. As home prices increase, finding moderately priced accommodations will be more difficult. Affordable rental and homeownership properties will be required to provide housing options for people at various stages of the housing spectrum from low to moderate incomes. Table 18 - Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Project Completed Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2014 AH Projects (completed) Address Bach 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Rent Supp Units Total # of Units occupancy date Bell Lane Apartments 1 19 4 18 24 2006 Cordage Lofts 28 28 2006 Dalhousie Church Lofts 14 3 17 2006 Your Homes Brantford 40 Queen St. - 27 0-14 27 October, 2006 City Centre Apartments 24 Harris Ave. - 39 12-23 51 October, 2006 Riverbank Apartments 120-140 West River St. (Paris) - 14 10-8 24 July, 2006 GK York City Site 163 Market St. & 40 & 42 Sheridan St. - 5 6 - - 11 December, 2008 Uptown Downtown 251 Colborne St. - 8 2 - - 10 September, 2009 GK York County Site 130 West River St. (Paris) - 5 17 2-24 November, 2009 Hotinohsioni Inc. 5 & 7 Walnut St. - - 6 - - 6 July, 2009 Alfred Heights 3-5 Alfred St - 27 12 - - 39 March, 2010 Freedom Gate 178 Market St. - 7 8 - - 15 May, 2010 G.K York 54 Winniet St. - 16 16 - - 32 June, 2010 Telephone City Developments 351-363 Colborne St. - 24 10 - - 34 August, 2010 Northern Gate Investments 255 Colborne St. 40 20 40 August, 2011 Hotinohsioni Inc. 1 Alfred St. 11 6 17 February, 2012 Counsel Park Road Limited 575 Park Rd. 39 39 April, 2012 Total 1 284 151 2 83 438 - CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 23
7.1 Affordable Housing (AH) - Con t The City of Brantford Housing Department currently has one affordable housing project pending construction. Once completed, the project will provide 4 new units to the City s rental market for people with low to moderate incomes. The Housing Department does not have any affordable housing projects slated for construction after the completion of the pending project at 124 Sherwood Drive. Funding from senior levels of government has been instrumental in the creation of new units. With no projects in the queue, the City should promote the construction of affordable housing units and explore alternative funding opportunities. Without new units, the demand for rental housing units may increase along with rental rates. While the City does have some mechanisms in place to encourage this form of development, such as development charges exemption for the creation of affordable rental or homeownership units, there remains a deficiency in new affordable housing stock. In order for proponents to utilize the development charges exemption, the proponent s project must meet definitions as specified in By-law 178-2006, and a twenty year Agreement must be entered into with the City of Brantford. The City should continue to take advantage of all available housing programs from senior levels of government and maintain and utilize existing incentive programs to work with private developers to provide affordable housing solutions for low to moderate income individuals. In addition the City should consider exploring options to build their own affordable housing units as part of their asset management plan. Table 19 - Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Pending Construction Completion AH Projects (Pending Construction Completion) Project Names address Bach 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Modified/Seniors Units Total # of units Expected occupancy date City of Brantford 124 Sherwood Drive 2 2-1 4 August, 2014 Total - - 2 2-1 4 - Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 24
7.2 B-HOME HOME OWNERSHIP PROGRAM In partnership with the Government of Canada, the Province of Ontario, the City of Brantford, and the County of Brant, the B-Home program has been developed to assist low to moderate income earners in purchasing a home. The program consists of an interest free loan for a 5% down payment (up to $9,250) for those who qualify and complete homeownership training sessions. Since 2007, the program has allocated home down payments to 125 residents in the City with a total value of $934,102 (See Table 20). The average allocations per applicant was $7,483. In 2013, allocations were issued to 8 households to purchase a home, the average allocation was $7,968. For more information on the B-Homes program please contact the City of Brantford - Housing Department. Going forward, the City should look at measures to encourage private developers to build homes within the City s affordability range to support home ownership opportunities. The B-Home programs is tied to the availability of funding, as evident in 2011, the availability of funding will dictate continued benefits for first time homebuyers through this program. Table 20 - Brant-Brantford: B-Home Home Ownership Program 2007-2012 B - Homes Home Ownership Program 2007-2012 2007 (June- Dec) 2008 2009 (Jan - Mar) 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Allocations 18 43 23 21 12 8 125 Total Value $122,365 $326,554 $167,523 $165,340 No Funding Avail- $88,570 $63,750 $934,102 Average Down able Payment $6,798 $7,594 $7,283 $7,873 $7,380 $7,968 $7,483 Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 25
7.3 Social Housing Social housing and affordable housing play an important part in assisting the development of communities. It is important that appropriate resources are combined with social housing programs to aid singles, seniors, and families to progress past the point where they require social assistance, and allow others the opportunity to be assisted by the available programs. Table 21 illustrates the breakdown of households on the social housing waiting list. Historically, families have represented the largest proportion of people on the waiting list, however, in 2012 and 2013, singles represented the greatest proportion of people on the waiting list for social housing. This emerging trend may indicate a shortage in the availability of unit types to house singles within the City s social housing stock. Table 21 - Social Housing Waiting List by Persons 2005-2013 Social Housing Waiting Lists 2005-2013 Year Seniors Singles Families Total 2005 155 333 653 1,141 2006 165 427 614 1,206 2007 148 352 563 1,063 2008 197 460 600 1,257 2009 218 517 470 1,205 2010 166 318 586 1,070 2011 183 417 439 1039 2012 222 431 294 947 2013 280 473 378 1,131 Avg 193 414 511 1,118 Table 22 provides a status update regarding the social housing waiting list within the City of Brantford. In 2013, 880 new applications were received for social housing units and 18% of the households on the waiting lists were housed. This figure is well below the historic average of 26% of the waiting list housed annually. The total people on the waiting list has decreased annually since 2008. However, in 2013, the waiting list increased above the historic average. Table 22 - Social Housing Waiting Applications 2005-2013 Social Housing 2005-2013 Year New Applications Families Housed Seniors Housed Singles Housed Special Needs Housed Total Housed Waiting List % of Waiting List Housed 2005 805 216 69 79 3 367 1,141 32% 2006 778 194 66 100 11 371 1,206 31% 2007 835 190 102 64 4 360 1,063 34% 2008 784 157 88 46 6 297 1,257 24% 2009 981 173 69 50 9 301 1,205 25% 2010 799 129 60 45 4 234 1,070 22% 2011 847 159 66 47 2 274 1,039 26% 2012 892 154 52 27 7 240 947 25% 2013 880 105 71 31 2 209 1,131 18% Avg 845 164 71 54 5 295 1,118 26% Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 26
7.4 Post Secondary Student Housing Student housing has become an increasingly important issue in the City of Brantford with the growth of post secondary institutions in the downtown core such as Wilfrid Laurier University Brantford, Nipissing University and Mohawk College. It should be noted that Wilfrid Laurier also handles residence housing for Nipissing University students. Student housing within Brantford consists of several housing type accommodations, including: University Managed/Owned Residences- These accommodations are only for first-year students as Wilfrid Laurier University guarantees residences space to all first-year students. Operating at full capacity, there are 455 available beds. The university is developing plans to build up to 500 beds within the next five years. The residence department at WLU expects that 70% of the students living in residence will require off campus housing in their second year. Large-scale Private Student housing developments- Private investors develop these accommodations as off campus housing specifically for students. Private landlord units- Single-family homes that have been converted to rental units, apartment building units are also classified in this heading. Student/Parent owned accommodations- Single-family homes owned or mortgaged by student or parent. Landlord occupied accommodations (i.e. homeowner renting a room) - Mainly in the Southwest, and North end of the City. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 27
7.4 Post Secondary Student Housing - Con t The Wilfrid Laurier Brantford Campus Master Plan states that from 2011-2017 student enrollment will grow from 2,800 full-time students to 4,000 full-time students. To accommodate the increase in enrollment the campus master plan estimates the university will require approximately 1,040 residency beds. The demand for student housing off-campus and on-campus is currently being provided by private sector investors converting buildings or apartments to suit the needs of students. In 2013 the Brantford Expositor building was converted into a 216 bed private residence leased by Laurier with commercial uses at grade. The off-campus housing listing service used by the university, www.places4students.com, has 55 properties listed for occupancy as of April 2013. The majority of the units listed are located in single detached dwellings with 4+ bedrooms available for rent. The price range for a student rental unit (bedroom) is $350-$500/month. The market for off-campus housing continues to grow at a rapid rate that meets or exceeds the rate of student growth. The Residence Department at WLU receives numerous inquiries on a weekly basis regarding the creation of rental housing for students. Going forward, the City should work with Laurier Brantford to devise a plan/strategy outlining a vision for the growth of off -campus student housing. The university has a unique location, being integrated within the fabric of the City s existing downtown area. The integration of student uses with residents is important. The location and management of student accommodations will require appropriate planning to reduce conflicts of use and poor rental conditions. With an expected build-out student population of 15,000 by 2023 and the City striving to achieve its provincial density targets, housing will be a critical part of the future growth/expansion of Laurier Brantford and development of the City s Urban Growth Centre (downtown). Table 23 - Laurier Brantford Off Campus Housing 2013 Laurier Brantford Off-Campus Housing 2013 Housing Type Accommodations Beds Large Scale Private Student Housing Developments Private Developer - Facility Leased By Laurier as Residence Dost Residence 22 Wellington Place 19 Athenian 17 St. Stephens House 10 St. Jude House 9 Victoria Place Loft 53 Expositor Building Residence 216 GK York Properties All Properties 300 Total @ 20% Student = 60 Private Landlord Units Centennial Towers 500 Total @ 20% Student = 100 Student/Parent Owned Accommodations Various 100 Landlord Occupied Accommodated Various 50 Private Landlord Units Various 200+ properties, ranging in number of beds/property. Estimate 4 bedrooms per/ property = 800 Beds Total Beds 1,456 Source: Wilfrid Laurier Brantford, 2010 and City of Brantford Planning Department, 2014 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 28
Appendix 1 - WARD BOUNDARIES CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 29
Appendix 2 - Official Plan Schedule 1-2 Growth Management Plan CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 30
Appendix 3 - Urban Growth Centre: Location of New Housing Units 2007 2013 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 31
Appendix 4 - Residential Monitoring Map (A clearer version of this map is available online at www.brantford.ca or for purchase from the City of Brantford Planning Department) CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 32