Virginia REALTORS Virginia Home Sales Fourth Quarter and Year-End
Fourth Quarter The Virginia REALTORS association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS (NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions. Central Eastern Hampton Roads Northern Southside Southwest Valley West Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem Data recorded January 15, 2018 1
Fourth Quarter Fourth Quarter Summary Virginia s fourth quarter residential real estate market capped off a year of growth despite persistent inventory constraints. Both the number of sales and the median price grew notably from. Along with steep declines in the average number of days properties stayed on the market, performance metrics at year end indicate sustained intensity in demand and buyer willingness to tolerate premiums in order to secure transactions. Year-over-year, quarterly transactions rose by 4.2 percent (from 26,744 to 27,880). The increase is attributed to particularly strong sales in October and November. Fourth quarter volume rose by 7.1 percent year-over-year, from $8.705 billion in to $9.322 billion in. Annual volume totaled $41.476 billion, 8.5 percent higher than the sum for ($38.215 billion). Annualized sales, the sum of all sales for the preceding twelve months, continued to increase, illustrating long term sustained growth in Virginia s housing market. Fourth quarter annualized sales rose 0.9 percent to 122,051 sales (from the third quarter benchmark of 120,915). The sum of all sales in was 4.7 percent greater than the sum in (116,621). Statewide, median price for the fourth quarter rose by 2.2 percent from to, from $265,000 to $270,699. Year-over-year, median prices rose in every region except the Eastern region. Year-over-year, the number of transactions (pace) rose in every region with the exception of Southwest Virginia, where the relatively low number of sales affects reporting metrics. Most notably, sales in the densest regions increased, with particular strength in Central Virginia, where the number of transactions rose by more than 10 percent from the same period last year. Fourth quarter sales increased in all price bands except the lowest ($0 to $100K). The highest jump was in the premium category above $800K, with all bands above $400K rising notably. Average fixed mortgage interest rates for 30-year and 15-year loans rose both year-over-year and from the third quarter (to 3.92 percent and 3.29 percent, respectively). The cost of financing remains historically low and is a key driver of market entry, and, as the Federal Reserve Bank projects more rate hikes in 2018, may intensify buyer urgency even more. Data recorded January 15, 2018 2
Fourth Quarter Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 6,503 6,731 Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,987 14,112 10,582 12,657 11,674 11,921 10,004 9,823 9,065 8,992 2,500 January March May July September November Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5,427 5,705 7,151 8,508 9,701 10,635 10,177 9,491 8,368 8,455 6,668 8,314 5,812 6,094 8,532 9,175 10,378 12,692 11,829 10,233 9,593 8,910 7,041 8,789 5,968 6,587 8,700 10,226 11,791 13,315 11,544 11,796 10,153 9,029 8,642 9,127 6,503 6,731 9,987 10,582 6 12,657 6 14,112 11,674 11,921 10,004 9,823 9,065 8,992 Sales in the first two months of the fourth quarter exceeded their prior year benchmarks, while December sales fell 1.4 percent from (from 9,127 to 8,992). The month-to-month decline from November to December was atypical of historical trends, as the final month of the year has usually seen an uptick in sales activity. The fourth quarter overall did track historical trends in tapering significantly from the third quarter pace by 17 percent (for comparison, sales in the fourth quarter of fell by 20 percent from the third quarter). Data recorded January 15, 2018 3
Fourth Quarter Number of Single Family, Townhome, Condo Sales 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 27,909 23,327 20,353 Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 32,138 31,567 24,670 21,179 35,275 33,423 26,744 23,221 37,351 4.2 % 33,599 27,880 Year-over-year, sales in the fourth quarter rose by 4.2 percent, from a total of 26,744 in to 27,880 in. Relative to the fourth quarter of, sales for the fourth quarter of rose 13 percent (from 24,670 transactions). Note: the horizontal bar in the graph indicates the variance in fourth quarter sales from through, beginning with 23,327 sales in and rising eventually to 27,880 sales in, with graduated increases for each year in between. Fourth quarter sales were 19.5 percent higher than their benchmark. Data recorded January 15, 2018 4
Fourth Quarter Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 4.7 % 0.9 % Each data point on the graph above represents twelve months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the figure (122,051 sales) includes the calendar year of home sales (from January through December ), while the figure (120,915 sales) includes home sales from October through September. This rolling sum of home sales reduces seasonal effect, providing a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia s housing market. Annualized sales ending in the fourth quarter of rose by 0.9 percent from the previous quarter. Year-over-year, annualized sales for the fourth quarter improved by 4.7 percent. The long-term trend of continued growth indicates sustained improvement in the market. Data recorded January 15, 2018 5
Fourth Quarter Regional Changes in Sales vs. Units +0.4 % +4.0 % +1.9 % +10.5 % +0.7 % -2.0 % +21.0 % +5.2 % Region Central 5,735 6,338 10.5% Eastern 578 589 1.9% Hampton Roads 5,981 6,293 5.2% Northern 9,808 9,845 0.4% Southside 518 627 21.0% Southwest 493 483-2.0% Valley 1,475 1,534 4.0% West Central 2,152 2,168 0.7% Other 4 3-25.0% ALL of Virginia 26,744 27,880 4.2% The chart above compares fourth quarter sales to fourth quarter sales, by region. With the exception of the Southwest region, sales grew year-over-year in all areas of the state. Performance metrics are relative to the absolute number of sales, so less dense regions like the Southwest and Southside regions have variances that seem more pronounced. The most notable year-over-year difference was in the Central region, where the number of sales jumped more than 10 percent. Data recorded January 15, 2018 6
Fourth Quarter Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos Median Sales Price 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 268,000 260,000 252,400 249,000 275,000 265,000 256,738 250,000 279,900 272,500 265,000 260,000 5.4 % 289,900 2.2 % 280,000 270,699 In comparison to the fourth quarter of, aggregate median price rose by 2.2 percent for the last quarter of (from $265,000 to $270,699). Relative to the fourth quarter of, median price rose by 5.4 percent (from $256,738). Continued price increases have been driven by high demand and consumer confidence, as well as persistent supply constraints. Typical of industry seasonality, median price decreased from the third quarter mark by 3.3 percent (from $280,000). Last year s decrease between the third and fourth quarters was 2.8 percent. Data recorded January 15, 2018 7
Fourth Quarter Regional Changes in Median Sales Price vs. 3.1% +2.5 % -6.1 % +4.4 % +3.0 % +3.0 % +12.3 +1.3 % Region Central $ 229,950 $ 240,000 4.4% Eastern $ 212,950 $ 199,900-6.1% Hampton Roads $ 227,000 $ 230,000 1.3% Northern $ 402,500 $ 415,000 3.1% Southside $ 95,250 $ 107,000 12.3% Southwest $ 117,500 $ 121,025 3.0% Valley $ 195,000 $ 199,950 2.5% West Central $ 165,000 $ 169,900 3.0% Other $ 44,000 $ 70,000 59.1% ALL of Virginia $ 265,000 $ 270,699 2.2% Median sales price increased year-over-year in every region except the Eastern region, where the relatively low number of sales can have an outsized impact on the performance variance. There were strong gains in the most densely populated regions, particularly Central and Northern Virginia. Note: because Other sales represent so few transactions, there is greater variance in price movement for each reporting period. Data recorded January 15, 2018 8
Fourth Quarter Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 7.1 % $0 This graph represents the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter for the last three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of rose by 7.1 percent year-0ver-year, from $8.705 billion to $9.322 billion. Volume was amplified year-over-year by increases in both price and the number of transactions. Annual volume for totaled $41.476 billion, an increase of 8.5 percent from the volume ($38.215 billion). Apparent in the graph below, annual volume has risen significantly each year in recent records, averaging a 10 percent increase every year since. Billions $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 $31.368 $7.395 $9.033 $9.542 Annual Sales Volume by Quarter Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos $35.184 $7.887 $10.246 $38.215 $8.705 $11.023 $10.791 $11.985 $41.476 $9.322 $11.518 $13.199 $5.399 $6.260 $6.503 $7.438 Data recorded January 15, 2018 9
Fourth Quarter Price Distribution of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos - - $1 M+ 565 526 7.4 % $800 K - $1M 621 502 23.7 % $500K - $800K 3,357 3,113 7.8 % Price Range $400K - $500K $300K - $400K 2,909 2,667 9.1 % 4,604 4,420 4.2 % $200K - $300K 7,063 4.9 % 6,732 $100K - $200K 6,531 6,371 2.5 % 0 - $100K 2,230 2,413-7.6 % 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Year-0ver-year home sales increased in every price category except the lowest range ($0 to $100K), where the limited availability of inventory typically restricts the number of sales possible. Growth was strongest in the highest ranges, with pace increasing especially in bands $400K and higher and with particularly strong growth in the premium band above $800K. Market Share for Price Bands 1.9% 1.7% 8.0% 0 - $100K 10.0% $100K - $200K $200K - $300K 8.7% 19.5% $300K - $400K $400K - $500K $500K - $800K 13.8% $800 K - $1M 21.1% $1 M+ Because sales in ranges below $750,000 represent the vast majority of transactions in Virginia, they are a clear indicator of market performance. The greatest number of transactions by price band in happened in the $200k to $300k range. Inadequate supply resulted in the year-over-year drop in the number of sales in the starter range from $0k to $100k. Data recorded January 15, 2018 10
Fourth Quarter 120 Average Days on the Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos Average Days on the Market 90 60 30 68 73 81 89 68 69 79 83 64 62 70 75 54 56-11.4 % 62 0 The average number of days on the market in the fourth quarter of decreased from the same quarter last year by more than 11 percent, from 70 days to 62. The urgency of buyers has contributed to steep declines in the average number of days on the market. With limited inventory and eager buyers, the speed of transactions has quickened significantly. Relative to the fourth quarter of, average days on the market for the end of dropped by 21.5 percent (from 79 days). Data recorded January 15, 2018 11
Fourth Quarter Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 437,000 427,000 9,127 8,992 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales in the fourth quarter have tracked the changes in the pace of sales in the United States as a whole. At both the state and national levels, December sales were slightly contracted from their prior year marks. Pervasive inventory constraints have stifled the number of transactions. $310,000 Monthly Residential Median Sales Price UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*) $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $266,000 $273,500 $246,800 $170,000 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Virginia median price changes performed slightly better than the changes in the median of existinghome sales prices nationally for the fourth quarter of. *Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by the National Association of REALTORS. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time. Data recorded January 15, 2018 12
Fourth Quarter 6.0% Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Virginia unemployment rate fell in the fourth quarter to seasonally-adjusted 3.7 percent. The rate for December was reported at 3.7 percent. Virginia unemployment continues to track below the national average (4.1 percent). Low unemployment is generally correlated with bolstered consumer confidence. Data recorded January 15, 2018 13
Fourth Quarter 4.60% Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 4.20% 4.17% 3.80% 3.97% 3.72% 3.83% 3.95% 3.90% 3.74% 3.59% 3.81% 3.99% 3.89% 3.92% 3.40% 3.45% 3.00% - - - - - - - 3.60% Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 3.40% 3.20% 3.00% 3.18% 3.01% 3.06% 3.15% 3.13% 3.03% 3.07% 3.39% 3.24% 3.17% 3.29% 2.80% 2.85% 2.75% 2.60% 2.40% 2.20% - - - - - - Average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage interest rates for the fourth quarter of rose from the previous quarter and were higher than in the fourth quarter of. Thought rates ticked up and the Federal Reserve Bank has projected three increases over the course 2018, buyers are still able to take advantage of historically low interest rates and may feel even greater urgency to enter the market. Data recorded January 15, 2018 14
Fourth Quarter The Virginia REALTORS association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 33,000 REALTORS engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. The Virginia REALTORS association serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Jenny Wortham Four Leaf Advocacy info@fourleafadvocacy.com 919-414-9409 The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Data recorded January 15, 2018 15