Ventura County Economic Profile November 2008 The copyright laws of the United States (Title 17 U.S. Code) forbid the unauthorized reproduction of this report by any means, including facsimile or computerized formats. Copyright 2006, CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Ventura County Profile Characteristic 2007 Population Estimate % Population Change 1990-2000 % Population Change 1980-1990 % White 2007 % Hispanic 2007 % Black 2007 % Asian & Pacific Islander 2007 2007 Per Capita Income 2007 Median Household Income 2007 Median Age Land Area Square Miles 2000 Total Establishments 2007 Civilian Employment Statistic 828,983 12.6% 26.4% 54.2% 36.0% 1.7% 5.7% $31,013 $73,250 35.6 1,845 17,206 406,478 State Rank 11 36 31 26 12
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence Ventura County, September 2008: 431 Units, Down 6.2% YTD, Up 89.0% YTY UNITS 1200 Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 160 1000 800 140 120 100 600 80 400 200 60 40 20 0 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; The Conference Board
10,000 9,000 8,000 Sales of Existing Detached Homes Ventura County, 2007: 4,108 Units, Down 28.9% YTY UNITS ANNUAL MONTHLY 700 600 7,000 6,000 500 5,000 400 4,000 3,000 300 2,000 1,000 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS 200 100 0 Jan Feb M a r A p r M a y 2006 2007 2008 Jun Jul A u g S e p t O c t N o v D e c
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Ventura County, September 2008: $431,770, Down 36.7% YTY $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
Median Price Annual Comparison Ventura County, 2007: $673,939, Down 1.8% YTY ANNUAL MONTHLY $800,000 $800,000 $700,000 $700,000 $600,000 $600,000 $500,000 $500,000 $400,000 $400,000 $300,000 $300,000 $200,000 $200,000 2006 $100,000 $- 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 $100,000 $- Jan Feb M a r A p r 2007 2008 M a y Jun Jul A u g S e p t O c t N o v D e c SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
Median Home Sales Price Ventura County Sep-08 Sep-07 Yearly % Change Ventura County $385,000 $540,000-28.7% Camarillo $420,000 $560,000-25.0% Fillmore $278,000 $475,250-41.5% Moorpark $425,500 $625,500-32.0% Newbury Park $538,250 $623,000-13.6% Ojai $420,000 $542,000-22.5% Oxnard $325,000 $523,500-37.9% Port Hueneme $280,000 $345,000-18.8% Santa Paula $228,000 $489,800-53.5% Simi Valley $405,000 $515,000-21.4% Thousand Oaks $460,000 $663,000-30.6% Ventura $365,000 $520,000-29.8% SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Unsold Inventory Index Ventura County, September 2008: 6.0 MONTHS 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council Foreclosures Q1/89 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Ventura County
Proportion of Foreclosures in Housing Transfers Ventura County 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
Mortgage Rates 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% FRM ARM Federal Funds 0% Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Housing Affordability Index Ventura County, December 2005: 13% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index Ventura County, 2nd Quarter 2008: 48% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
Nonfarm Employment Ventura County, September 2008: Down 2.4% Y-T-Y Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Unemployment Rate Ventura County, September 2008: 7.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
Unemployment Rate Ventura County -- September 2008 Area Name Labor Force Rate Ventura County 430,600 7.0% Camarillo city 32,000 4.9% Casa Conejo CDP 1,900 5.4% Channel Islands Beach CDP 2,300 8.0% El Rio CDP 2,800 3.6% Fillmore city 6,700 10.0% Meiners Oaks CDP 2,300 6.9% Mira Monte CDP 3,800 8.0% Moorpark city 18,700 6.5% Oak Park CDP 1,600 3.8% Oak View CDP 2,600 8.4% Ojai city 4,200 9.2% Oxnard city 89,400 9.6% Piru CDP 600 12.3% Port Hueneme city 10,800 7.7% San Buenaventura (Ventura) 61,300 6.3% Santa Paula city 14,600 11.7% CCD Census County Division CDP Census Designated Place SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
Unemployment Rate Ventura County -- September 2008 Area Name Labor Force Rate Ventura County 430,600 7.0% Simi Valley city 69,800 5.7% Thousand Oaks city 71,300 5.4% CCD Census County Division CDP Census Designated Place SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
Taxable Sales Ventura County ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Q1/89 Q3/89 Q1/90 Q3/90 Q1/91 Q3/91 Q1/92 Q3/92 Q1/93 Q3/93 Q1/94 Q3/94 Q1/95 Q3/95 Q1/96 Q3/96 Q1/97 Q3/97 Q1/98 Q3/98 Q1/99 Q3/99 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization
New Housing Permits Ventura County, September 2008: 22 Units, Down 51.9% Y-T-D 1000 900 800 700 Single Family Multi-Family 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
Median Price for New Homes Ventura County 3Q08 Detached: $699,900, Attached: $365,191 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 Detached Attached $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood
New Home Sales Ventura County (Attached), 2008 Q3 Sales: 51 Units 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood
New Home Sales Ventura County (Detached), 2008 Q3 Sales: 30 Units 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q2/08 Q2/88 Q2/89 Q2/90 Q2/91 Q2/92 Q2/93 Q2/94 Q2/95 Q2/96 Q2/97 Q2/98 Q2/99 Q2/00 Q2/01 Q2/02 Q2/03 Q2/04 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS ; Hanley Wood
Population Percent Changes Ventura County (1971-2007) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Ventura CA Nation 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 SOURCE:U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS
Sources of Population Growth Ventura County (1981-2007) THOUSANDS 20 Natural Increase Net Migration 15 10 5 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0-5 SOURCE: CA Department of Finance
Net Immigration Vs. Domestic Migration Ventura County THOUSANDS 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Net Immigration Domestic Migration -8 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 SOURCE: CA Department of Finance
Household Relocations Ventura County County Outflow Inflow Net Outflow Los Angeles, CA 3,930 5,536 (952) Kern, CA 767 312 764 Maricopa, AZ 740 176 (375) San Diego, CA 729 578 120 Santa Barbara, CA 709 1,042 506 Clark, NV 501 205 421 Orange County, CA 488 489 82 Riverside, CA 448 264 195 San Bernardino, CA 307 276 73 San Luis Obispo, CA 237 159 78 Total-Top 10 8,856 9,037 912 All Migration 17,353 14,394 2,959 Total Number of Households 270,654 Top 10 as % of All Households 0.3% All Net Mig as % of All Households 1.1% Source: NAR Relocation Report 2006 IRS Data; Item 187-06061, US Census Bureau
Where are new Ventura County households coming from? Los Angeles (5536) Santa Barbara (1042) San Diego (578) Orange County (489) Kern (312) Total incoming for 2006: 14,394 Total outgoing for 2006: 17,353 Source: NAR Relocation Report 2006 IRS Data; Item 187-06085
Net Immigration by Ethnic Group Ventura County (1990 Census to 2000 Census) White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Black or Afr. Amer., Non-Hisp. Amer. Indian & Alaska Native, Non-Hisp. -40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 30 Thousands SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance
Number of Households by Ethnicity Ventura County (1990 Census vs. 2000 Census) White Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Black 1990 2000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
Top 10 Home Buyer Surnames Ventura County (2007) GARCIA RODRIGUEZ GONZALEZ LOPEZ MARTINEZ HERNANDEZ PEREZ RAMIREZ JOHNSON LEE 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 SOURCE: DataQuick SOURCE: Information California Association Systems of REALTORS Number of Buyers
Population by Age Group Ventura County (2000-2010) Thousands 180 160 2000 2010 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ SOURCE: California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS
Homeownership Rates Ventura Metropolitan Area, 2006: 69.8% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
Homeownership Rates by Age Ventura County (2000 Census) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ SOURCE: California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS