Build-out Analysis City of Cape Coral 2011 CITY OF CAPE CORAL Department of Community Development Division of Planning and Growth Management Cape Coral, Florida Derek C.S. Burr, AICP, MS, MPA, Division Manager comdev@capecoral.net March 2012
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Table of Contents Executive Summary... - 1 - Introduction... 5 Current Inventories and Build-Out Projections... 15 Residential... 21 Non-Residential... 23 Mixed-use... 24 APPENDIX I... 1 Build-Out Analysis Methodology... 1 Work Flow for Determining Inventories of Residential Dwelling Units, Land Areas, Uses, and Non-residential Building Floor Areas... 1 Assumptions Specific to Future Land Use Classifications... 2 Commercial Activity Center (CAC)... 2 Commercial/Professional (CP)... 2 Downtown Mixed (DM)... 3 Highway Commercial (HC)... 4 Light Industrial (I)... 4 Low Density Residential I (LDRI)... 4 Low Density Residential II (LDRII)... 5 Mixed Use (MX)... 5 Mixed Use Preserve (MUP)... 5 Multiple Family Residential (MF)... 6 Parcels less than 15,000 square feet in area... 6 Parcels greater than or equal to 15,000 square feet in area... 6 Pine Island Road District (PIRD)... 6 Single Family Residential (SF)... 7
Table of Figures Figure 1 Future Land Use Groups... - 2 - Figure 2- Coralwood Center (f.k.a. Coralwood Mall)... - 2 - Figure 3 - Dwelling Units by Future Land Use Classification... - 4 - Figure 4 - Single Family: ± 4.4 DU per Acre (Cape Coral)... 6 Figure 5 - Duplex: ± 8.8 DU/acre (Cape Coral)... 6 Figure 6 Multi-Family: ± 11.6 DU/acre (Concordia of Cape Coral)... 7 Figure 7 Multi-Family: ± 45 DU Acre (Beau Rivage-Fort Myers)... 7 Figure 8 Multi-Family: ± 63 DU per Acre (St Tropez & Riviera - Ft. Myers)... 8 Figure 9 Floor Area Ratio Diagrams... 8 Figure 10: ±14,176 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.17 (Walgreens, Cape Coral)... 9 Figure 11: ±101,205 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.20 (City Hall, Cape Coral)... 9 Figure 12: ±138,134 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.24 (Lowes, Cape Coral)... 10 Figure 13: ±200,200 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.26 (Publix and 4 Units---MidPoint Center, Cape Coral)... 11 Figure 14: ±92,377 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±1.25 (Lee County Public Works, Ft. Myers)... 11 Figure 15: ±197,692 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±5.17 (U.S. Courthouse & Federal Building, Ft. Myers)... 12 Figure 16 - Improved / Unimproved Area... 13 Figure 17 - Percent Built-Out: Example Areas... 14 Figure 18 - Future Land Use Areas... 16 Figure 19 - "Quadrants"... 18 Figure 20 - Future Land Use Classification Groups as Percentage by Quadrant... 19 Figure 21 - Future Land Use Classification Groups (excluding Open Space/Park/Preserve/Public Facility) as Percentage by Quadrant... 20 Figure 22 - Existing Housing Unit Types... 21 Figure 23 - Future Land Use Map... 25
Executive Summary Because the future land use map of the Comprehensive Plan guides development, the percentages of lands within various categories of future land use map classification is noteworthy, provided below: Approximately 24% of Cape Coral s lands are classified as Open Space, Parks and Recreation Facilities, Preserves, or Public Facilities. The largest group of future land use categories is Residential (Single Family, Multi-Family, and Single Family /Multi-Family by PDP), totaling ±59% of the land area. Mixeduse categories (Commercial Activity Center, Downtown Mixed, Flexible Development Overlay District, Mixed Use, Mixed Use Preserve, and the Pine Island Road District) comprise ± 13% of the land area. Approximately 4% of the land area is within the Commercial/Industrial category (Commercial/Professional and Light Industrial). Quick Fact! The Edison Mall in Ft. Myers has 1.05 million square feet of retail floor area. The Coralwood Center in Cape Coral has approximately 390,660 square feet of floor area, including the unit formerly known as Sears/K-mart. Quick Fact! The Residential Build- Out Analysis shows a capacity of 171,469 (low projection) to 203,623 (theoretical maximum projection) dwelling units. The Build-Out Analysis identifies a land capacity ranging from 91,725 to 123,880 additional residential dwelling units that could be built. Adding these estimates to the 79,744 units that existed as of April 2011, brings the potential residential build-out to 171,469 to 203,623 dwelling units. On the non-residential side, there is a potential for 103.4 million (M) to 232.4 M square feet of additional non-residential gross floor area to be built. Adding these estimates to the existing 16.3 M square feet of non-residential gross floor area brings the potential non-residential floor area at build-out to 119.7 M to 248.7 M square feet. Details on the data and methodology used by staff to arrive at these forecasts are explained further in this report. The maximum projections are provided for theoretical purposes and should not be regarded as yields that could be achieved on a citywide basis. The low projections provided within this report are the anticipated yields, based on historical data and trends. Even lower yields than these could be realized if development trends decline or if unimproved lands continue to lie dormant or are reclassified to another land use. The existing and projected yields for each future land use classification are provided in Table 1. 1
Residential 59% Open Space/ Park/Preserve/ Public Facility 24% Mixed Commercial/ Residential 13% Commercial/ Industrial 4% Figure 1 Future Land Use Groups Figure 2 Coralwood Center (f.k.a. Coralwood Mall) 2
Table 1 - Existing and Projected Dwelling Units and Non-Residential Floor Area Low Theoretical Maximum Low Theoretical Maximum Future Land Use Commercial Activity Center CAC 519 614 4,378 0.0 10.5 114.4 Commercial/ Professional CP 1,497 0 0 5.5 15.6 67.8 Downtown Mixed DM 675 2,787 11,146 2.5 3.0 26.9 Light Industrial I 0 0 0 2.3 3.6 20.8 Low Density Residential I LDRI 0 0 142 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low Density Residential II LDRII 24 90 248 0.0 0.0 0.0 Multiple Family Residential MF 12,267 22,756 28,890 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mixed Use Preserve (All Types and Classes) MUP 0 0 1,370 0.0 6.6 9.9 Mixed Use MX 1,947 4,727 7,244 1.1 3.1 9.1 Natural Resources/ Preservation PR 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Not Available NA 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Open Space OS 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Public Facilities PF 15 0 0 4.5 5.7 57.1 Pine Island Road District PIRD 986 3,720 5,030 4.9 6.0 17.7 Single Family Residential SF 46,307 61,896 68,068 0.0 0.0 0.0 Single Family and Multi- Family by PDP SM 15,492 70,280 75,294 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub-Districts (all)** Sub- Districts 0 1,813 1,813 0.0 0.7 0.7 Totals 79,729 168,683 203,623 20.8 54.8 324.5 * Existing Use April, 2011 FLU Code Existing Dwelling Units 2011* Projected Dwelling Units at Build-out ** Sub-Districts are overlays to future land use classifications within which special regulations apply Existing Non- Residential Floor Area 2011* (Million Sq Ft) Projected Non-Residential Floor Area at Build-out (Million Sq Ft) The future population can be projected by applying the 2010 Census rates of household size and vacancy level to the dwelling unit projection. Although the variables of household size and vacancy level may change in the future, it has held relatively constant over recent years. The low permanent population projection based on the low dwelling unit projection is 380,000±, while the theoretical maximum projection is 458,000±. This would be an increase of 144% or 194%, respectively, compared to the 2010 population. 3
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Projected Dwelling Units at Build-out (Theoretical Maximum) Projected Dwelling Units at Build-out (Low) Existing Dwelling Units 2011* Existing Dwelling Units 2011* Projected Dwelling Units at Build-out (Low) Projected Dwelling Units at Build-out (Theoretical Maximum) Figure 3 - Dwelling Units by Future Land Use Classification The non-residential floor area projected yield increases are proportionally greater than the projected residential increases. The low projection and theoretical maximum projection would be 163% and 555% increases, respectively, over existing inventories. 4
Introduction This report contains an inventory of existing residential and non-residential development with an analysis of the build-out potential of the City of Cape Coral. The report includes low and maximum projections of the number of residential households, referred to as dwelling units. Because non-residential units vary dramatically in size, the quantity of non-residential units is not as meaningful as the total building space, expressed as floor area. Quick Fact! 17% of Cape Coral s parcel area is classified as Natural Resources/Preservation. The Comprehensive Plan provides limitations for maximum residential densities, expressed in dwelling units per acre. Cape Coral s most abundant future land use classification is Single Family Residential, which has a maximum of 4.4 dwelling units per acre. Multi-family development is typically significantly higher. For example, Concordia at Cape Coral is a multifamily development with 11.6 dwelling units per acre. In other more urbanized cities, multifamily densities of 50 to 100 dwelling units per acre are not uncommon. Although high-rise development is typically associated with high density, low-rise and mid-rise development can also have relatively high densities. This report does not provide discussion on the pros and cons of relative density. The advantages and disadvantages of low and high densities is the subject of much planning literature. Density of development is one of the key tools a local government can use to control development. 5
Examples of development at various densities are illustrated below: Figure 4 - Single Family: ± 4.4 DU per Acre (Cape Coral), Source: http://leepa.org/ Figure 5 - Duplex: ± 8.8 DU/acre (Cape Coral), Source: http://leepa.org/ 6
Figure 6 Multi-Family: ± 11.6 DU/acre (Concordia of Cape Coral) Figure 7 Multi-Family: ± 45 DU Acre (Beau Rivage-Fort Myers) 7
Figure 8 Multi-Family: ± 63 DU per Acre (St Tropez & Riviera - Ft. Myers) The equivalent limitations for non-residential development are established by maximum intensities, expressed as floor area ratios (FARs)--not as densities. The FAR is the total square feet of a building divided by the total square feet of the site on which the building is located. In Cape Coral, the FAR excludes the area of parking garages and residential dwelling units; however, some other communities treat this differently. Figure 9 Floor Area Ratio Diagrams (Source: American Planning Association, A Planners Dictionary, 2004) Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Explained Floor Area Ratio (FAR) is the building floor area, divided by the land area of the site. Buildings of varying numbers of stories can have the same FAR, because the FAR is a measure of the total floor area of a building, not just the building's footprint. Higher FARs indicate a more urban development style. Although higher FARs may contribute to problems such as traffic congestion, they are typical of pedestrian friendly communities where mass transit functions well. Low FARs are indicative of suburban communities where circulation is highly dependent on the private automobile. While the average existing FAR of commercial development in Cape Coral is 0.23, it is not uncommon to have FARs of 20 or more in business districts of large cities. 8
Examples of developments with various densities are illustrated below: Figure 10: ±14,176 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.17 (Walgreens, Cape Coral), Source: http://leepa.org/ Figure 11: ±101,205 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.20 (City Hall, Cape Coral), Source: http://leepa.org/ 9
Figure 12: ±138,134 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.24 (Lowes, Cape Coral), Source: http://leepa.org/ 10
Figure 13: ±200,200 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±0.26 (Publix and 4 Units---MidPoint Center, Cape Coral) Figure 14: ±92,377 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±1.25 (Lee County Public Works, Ft. Myers), Source: http://leepa.org/ 11
Figure 15: ±197,692 Squ. Ft.; FAR: ±5.17 (U.S. Courthouse & Federal Building, Ft. Myers), Source: http://leepa.org/ - Densities and intensities are limited by future land use classification parameters contained within the Comprehensive Plan. The quantities of land within each future land use classification and the distribution of the future land use classifications are provided by the future land use map. The future land use map guides the Official Zoning District Map which provides a more precise regulation of land areas. The maximum projections provided in this report are theoretical legal maximum projections based on the future land use. The low projections are based on existing development, current trends, market preferences, and parcel sizes. As a result, for planning purposes these lower projections of future development are more meaningful than the theoretical maximum projections. This analysis of the build-out environment is intended to guide the decisionmakers with future land use, public facilities, and infrastructure planning. Currently, 53% of the City s parcels are unimproved creating the opportunity for adjustments to achieve the desired build-out of the City. Quick Fact! 63% of Cape Coral s land area is unimproved. 12
Improved versus Unimproved Areas Of the 129,275 parcels within Cape Coral, 68,175(53%) were improved as of April 2011. However, only 37 percent of the parcel land area was improved. Please note that this includes parcels dedicated to preservation, but excludes all rights-of-way for roads and waterways. Number of Percentage By Percentage By Parcels Parcel Count Land Area Improved Parcels 68,175 53% 37% Unimproved Parcels 61,100 47% 63% Total 129,275 100% 100% Number of Improved Parcels 68,175 53% Number of Unimproved Parcels 61,100 47% 63 % of Total Unimproved Land Area Figure 16 - Improved / Unimproved Area 13
People familiar with Cape Coral can gain a sense of what various percentages of build-out mean by comparing areas of the City on the map below. Figure 17 - Percent Built-Out: Example Areas 14
Current Inventories and Build-Out Projections The data in this report are from April 2011, essentially a snapshot in time for existing development, future land use classifications, and parcel attributes. The future land use map of the City of Cape Coral Comprehensive Plan has seventeen primary future land use classifications, some of which have subclassifications, e.g. the Mixed Use Preserve (MUP). The acreage within the various classifications is displayed in Table 2, below: Table 2 - Future Land Use Classification Acreage Future Land Use Classification FLU Code Total Acres Commercial Activity Center CAC 1,312 Commercial/Professional CP 1,741 Downtown Mixed DM 277 Flexible Development Overlay FDOD 5 Highway Commercial HC 1 Industrial I 512 Low Density Residential I LDRI 65 Low Density Residential II LDRII 228 Multi-Family MF 1,924 Mixed Use Preserve (All) MUP 1,185 Mixed Use MX 1,999 Natural Resources/Preservation PR 9,866 NA NA 1,607 Open Space OS 87 Park & Recreation Facilities PK 1,883 Public Facilities PF 1,260 Pine Island Road District PIRD 2,543 Single Family & Multi-Family by PDP SM 14,400 Single Family Residential SF 15,755 Sub-District Sub- District 794 *Sub-Districts are future land use overlays, where special regulations apply. Lands within Sub-Districts are not included within the areas for underlying future land use classifications. 15
Future Land Use SM 25% SF 27% PIRD 4% PF 2% PK 3% OS 0% NA 3% PR 17% MX 3% MUP 2% MF 3% LDRII 0% I 1% LDRI 0% Sub-Dist. 1% CAC 2% CP 3% DM 0% FDOD 0% HC 0% Figure 18 - Future Land Use Areas 16
Please see Appendix I for an explanation of the assumptions used in the projections for the future land use classifications. For the purpose of only this report, Cape Coral s future land use classifications are categorized into three primary groups and one other inclusive group. The primary groups are residential, non-residential, and mixed-use. The residential classifications primarily support the development of residential dwelling units, although a small portion of residential lands are used for non-residential purposes, such as religious facilities. Non-residential classifications include retail, office, services, and industrial uses. These non-residential classifications may also include some institutional uses. However, most governmental uses in Cape Coral are located within the Public Facilities future land use classification, which is categorized as other. The mixed-use group allows both residential and non-residential development. The other group includes Natural Resources/Preservation, Open Space, Parks and Recreation Facilities, and Public Facilities future land use classifications. The exact geographic distribution of the future land use classifications is the Future Land Use Map (see Figure 23 - Future Land Use Map, Page 25). For a more generalized understanding of the distribution of future land use groups, a generalized area analysis is provided. For this purpose the City is divided into four roughly equal sections, that are referred to herein as quadrants (see Figure 19 - "Quadrants", Page 18). The north/south bisector is Pine Island Road (SR-78). The northern area bisector is Nelson Road, and the southern area bisector is Skyline Boulevard. 17
Figure 19 - "Quadrants" 18
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Residential Open Space/Park/Preserve/Public Facility Commercial/Industrial Mixed Commercial/Residential 30% 20% 10% 0% % in NW % in NE % in SW % in SE Figure 20 - Future Land Use Classification Groups as Percentage by Quadrant The distribution of the future land use classification groups among quadrants is presented in Figure 20. Because the group containing Open Space/Park/Preserve varies significantly, and includes vast areas of government-owned lands that do not contribute to the tax-base, it is helpful to exclude this group to better understand the relative proportions of Residential, Commercial/Industrial, and Mixed Commercial/Residential groups. The results are displayed in Figure 21 - Future Land Use Classification Groups (excluding Open Space/Park/Preserve/Public Facility) as Percentage by Quadrant. This comparison among quadrants reveals a slightly higher level of Mixed Commercial/Residential and Commercial/Industrial and corresponding lower level of Residential in the northeastern quadrant. The presence of several large tracts in the northeastern quadrant account for the majority of this disparity. Most notable among these include the recently annexed lands along U.S. 41 (owned by the Zemel Trust), along with the lands in the Veterans Investment Zone, the Entrada and Coral Lakes developments. It should be noted, however, that only small portions of the Entrada and Coral Lakes developments are planned for non-residential development. 19
The southeastern quadrant has the highest percentage of Residential area. It is also the quadrant with the highest percentage of improved properties. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Residential Commercial/Industrial Mixed Commercial/Residential 30% 20% 10% 0% % in NW % in NE % in SW % in SE Figure 21 - Future Land Use Classification Groups (excluding Open Space/Park/Preserve/Public Facility) as Percentage by Quadrant 20
Residential Existing Housing Unit Types Single Family 79% Apartment Building 3% 4-unit or less 7% Condo 11% Figure 22 - Existing Housing Unit Types The residential categories of Apartment Building, 4-Unit or Less, and Condo are classifications of the Lee County Property Appraiser. Apartments differ from condos (condominiums) in the type of ownership. Some condos and apartment buildings have 4 dwelling units or less, so the categories are somewhat arbitrary. Single family dwelling units account for 79 percent of the dwelling unit types in Cape Coral. This exceeds the national average of approximately 63 percent of the dwelling units. 21
Residential Future Land Use Code Cape Coral currently has five residential future land use classifications, as follows: Residential* Future Land Use Code Acres Density** (theoretical maximum) (Dwelling Units per Acre) Low Density Residential I LDRI 65 0.5 Low Density Residential II LDRII 229 0.9 Multi-Family Residential MF 1,924 16 Single Family Residential SF 15,755 4.4 Single Family and Multi-Family by PDP SM 14,400 4.4 to 16 Total - 32,373 - *Excludes lands platted as private lakes and roads **In the Urban Services Reserve area, additional restrictions apply 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 LDRI LDRII MF SF SM SM SF MF LDRII LDRI Acres 14,400 15,755 1,924 229 65 22
Non-Residential Future Land Use Non-Residential Cape Coral currently has three non-residential future land use classifications, as follows: Future Land Use Code Acres Floor Area Ratio (maximum) Commercial/Professional CP 1,741 1.0 Highway Commercial HC 1 1.0 Industrial I 511 1.0 Total - 2,253-0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 CP HC I I HC CP Acres 511 1 1,741 23
Mixed-Use Future Land Use Mixed-use Cape Coral currently has six mixed-use future land use classifications, as follows: Future Land Use Code Acres Floor Area Ratio (maximum) Density (theoretical maximum) (Dwelling Units per Acre) Commercial Activity Center CAC 1,312 2 0 to 20* Downtown Mixed DM 277 4 40* Flexible Development Overlay District FDOD 5 1 16* Mixed Use Preserve (all classes and types) MUP 1,185 0.25 1 to 16* Mixed Use MX 1,999 1 16* Pine Island Road District PIRD 2,543 1.25** 24*** Total - 7,323 - - * Various restrictions apply ** FAR of 1.0 is the maximum intensity in the Corridor District *** Village and Corridor Zoning Districts limit density to 20 DU/acre 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 CAC DM FDOD MUP MX PIRD PIRD MX MUP FDOD DM CAC Acres 2,543 1,999 1,185 5 277 1,312 24
The distribution of future land use classifications is provided by the future land use map, Figure 23 - Future Land Use Map. Figure 23 - Future Land Use Map 25
APPENDIX I Build-Out Analysis Methodology The build-out analysis begins with examination of the maximum residential densities and intensities that can be legally developed within the future land use classification, as allowed by the Comprehensive Plan. Although certain properties are likely to develop to the maximum densities or intensities allowed by the Comprehensive Plan, on a citywide basis these maximums are not likely to be achieved for a variety of reasons. The most important determinant is market preference for development at less than maximum legal densities and intensities. For example, the maximum allowable floor area ratio (FAR) within Cape Coral s Commercial/Professional future land use classification is 1.0. However, the property appraiser s data indicates that the mean FAR for retail and office/services within Cape Coral is only 0.25 and 0.22, respectively. Land costs and land availability have also deterred developing to the legal maximum FAR. Even within an individual development site, no development in Cape Coral approaches the maximum allowed FAR. Therefore, if the theoretical maximum was used to estimate the quantity of commercial building space at build-out within Cape Coral, that figure would most likely grossly over estimate the future reality. It is logical to assume that as land becomes more scarce and thus more valuable, the market forces will gravitate to an increase in FAR values over time, but these adjustments are impossible to predict with any level of certainty. Currently, internet-based shopping is taking a growing market share from bricks-and-mortar retailers. Telecommuting is an increasing trend. According to the National Citizen Survey, the percentage of people that work at home increased from 4% in 2008 to 8% in 2011. Although this was a small sample size, an increasing trend is apparent. These are just two examples to illustrate why it is prudent to assume less than the legal maximum density and intensity. Other forces that could affect the future citywide mean FAR include transportation improvements, wider employment of mass transit, and changes to the price of fuel for motor vehicles. The low range projections in this analysis are based on assumptions that fall within four general categories, as follows: 1. Future development will resemble existing development, (i.e., average FAR of current development); 2. Existing development is likely to remain at current density/intensity, even though it may be higher or lower than the average density or intensity; 3. Approved development orders that have not been constructed will be constructed, and 4. Parcel sizes will tend to remain as they are, with exceptions as noted below. Work Flow for Determining Inventories of Residential Dwelling Units, Land Areas, Uses, and Non-residential Building Floor Areas 1. Acreage was determined for each future land use category using the City s Geographic Information System (GIS). The parcel layer, by definition, excludes land within rights-of-way for roads and canals. 2. All parcels were sorted by the future land use code, a field within the GIS parcel layer. A 1
3. The Improved field in the GIS Ownership layer was queried to determine whether parcels were developed. Staff notes some irregularities with the accuracy of this data; however, it provides a reasonable indication of whether the City has issued a building permit for the parcel. 4. The Department of Revenue (DOR) codes were queried to distinguish between various types of residential and non-residential uses. 5. The Heated Floor area field was queried to determine the existing floor area for nonresidential uses. Assumptions Specific to Future Land Use Classifications Due to a wide variety of reasons, some future land use classifications have more complex assumptions than others. The following chart briefly describes the approach for each future land use classification. Commercial Activity Center (CAC) Assumptions for the Commercial Activity Center future land use classification include the following: Low Projection Residential 1. Parcels will not be assembled; 2. Parcels for which compound use development is optional will develop without dwelling units; 3. Parcels greater than or equal to 10 acres will develop with 4.4 dwelling units per acre (compound use) on 20% of the land area. Low Projection Non-Residential 1. Parcels will be assembled to allow freestanding residential on 20% of the land; 2. 80% of the land will develop with non-residential uses with a FAR of 0.23. Maximum Projection Residential 1. Parcels will not be assembled; 2. Parcels will develop to their maximum legal densities of compound use and freestanding residential allowed with the Development Incentive Program fully utilized. Maximum Projection Non-Residential 1. Parcels will not be assembled; 2. Parcels will develop to their maximum legal intensities with the Development Incentive Program fully utilized and optional freestanding residential will not be developed. Commercial/Professional (CP) Assumptions for the Commercial/Professional future land use classification include the following: Low Projection Residential 1. Parcels with existing nonconforming residential uses will be converted to non-residential uses. 2. No dwelling units will develop. A 2
Low Projection Non-Residential All parcels will develop with non-residential uses with a FAR of 0.23. Maximum Projection Residential 1. Parcels with existing nonconforming residential uses will be converted to non-residential uses. 2. The maximum proportion (25%) of the Flexible Development Overlay (FDOD) will develop with the maximum density of dwelling units (16 dwelling units per acre). Maximum Projection Non-Residential All parcels will develop with non-residential uses with the maximum FAR allowed by the Comprehensive Plan of 1.0. Downtown Mixed (DM) Assumptions for the Downtown Mixed (DM) classification include the following: Low Projection Residential 50% of parcels will develop with 50% of the legal maximum density of 40 dwelling units per acre. Low Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop with a mean 0.25 FAR. Although some parcels will develop with a higher FAR, some parcels will develop exclusively with residential uses. Maximum Projection Residential Every parcel will develop to the maximum density allowed by the Comprehensive Plan, 40 dwelling units per acre Maximum Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop to their maximum legal intensities on 100% of the land area. The maximum intensity is an area-wide FAR of 2.23. A 3
Highway Commercial (HC) Assumptions for the Highway Commercial (HC) classification include the following: Low Projection Residential No dwelling units will be developed. Low Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop with a mean 0.23 FAR. Maximum Projection Residential No dwelling units will be developed. Maximum Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop to their maximum legal intensities, FAR of 1.0, on 100% of the land area. Light Industrial (I) Assumptions for the Light Industrial future land use classification include the following: General Wetlands and other preservation lands along Hancock Creek and in the area formerly known as Indian Oaks Commerce Center will remain undeveloped. Low Projection Residential No residential development is projected. Low Projection Non-Residential Industrial lands will be developed or redeveloped with a FAR of 0.17. Maximum Projection Residential No residential development is projected. Maximum Projection Non-Residential Industrial lands will be developed or redeveloped with a FAR of 1.0. Low Density Residential I (LDRI) Both low and maximum projections in this report assume that all Low Density Residential I areas will develop to the legal maximum density of1 DU per 20,000 square feet. No basis exists for a different low and maximum projection for this LDRI classification, as no LDRI lands are developed. A 4
Low Density Residential II (LDRII) The LDRII classification allows 1 residential dwelling per 40,000 square feet. Currently 23 of the 66 parcels are developed with one dwelling unit per acre. This equates to a density of 1 dwelling unit per 2.52 acres. Residents of these areas have expressed a strong interest in preserving a ranchette lifestyle, which if continues would diminish the likelihood of splitting or subdividing parcels in the LDRII. Thus, the low projection assumes a density of 1 dwelling unit per 2.52 acres. The maximum projection assumes a density of 1 dwelling unit per 40,000 square feet. Mixed Use (MX) Assumptions for the Mixed Use classification include the following: 1. Current development will remain at the improved densities and intensities; 2. Major projects with approved development orders will develop as planned; 3. Small platted Cape Coral Subdivision parcels in three locations (east of Burnt Store Road, near City Hall, and west of Cape Harbour PDP) will develop in accordance with their current zoning district (R-1B, R-3, RD, and P-1); 4. Wetland areas and borrow pit lake areas will not be developed. 5. Agricultural MX parcels located west of Burnt Store Road, that lack major street frontage in areas developing with ranchettes, will develop as ranchettes. Such properties that have major street exposure are projected to develop with 0.16 FAR. Mixed Use Preserve (MUP) Assumptions for the Mixed Use Preserve classification include the following: General This report assumes that Mixed Use Preserve wetlands and borrow pit lake areas south of Pine Island Road will not be developed. Mixed Use Preserve Conservation areas and Isolated Upland areas will not be developed with non-residential uses. Low Projection Residential Parcels will develop with no residential dwelling units. Residential uses are not required. Low Projection Non-Residential 1. The maximum proportion of land will develop with residential uses, a level that varies with the Mixed Use Preserve Type. A 5
2. Parcels will develop with a 0.25 FAR. Maximum Projection Residential Parcels will develop to the maximum density allowed on the maximum percentage of area devoted to residential. These maximum densities and maximum area percentages vary by Mixed Use Preserve class, type, and location. Maximum Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop to their maximum legal intensities on 100% of the land area. The maximum intensities are a 0.25 FAR north of Pine Island Road and 2.0 FAR south of Pine Island Road. Multiple Family Residential (MF) Assumptions for the Multiple Family Residential classification include the following: Parcels less than 15,000 square feet in area The density of developed Multiple Family properties less than 15,000 square feet in area is 7.26 dwelling units per acre. The low projection assumes that this existing development will remain and unimproved parcels of this size will develop with this same density. The maximum projection assumes that parcels will be assembled and developed or redeveloped to achieve the maximum legal density of 16 dwelling units per acre. Parcels greater than or equal to 15,000 square feet in area The density of developed Multiple Family properties greater than or equal to 15,000 square feet in area is 15.04 dwelling units per acre. The low projection assumes that this existing development will remain and unimproved parcels of this size will develop with this same density. The maximum projection assumes that parcels will be assembled and developed or redeveloped to achieve the maximum legal density of 16 dwelling units per acre. Natural Resources/Preservation (PR) It is assumed that no development of dwelling units or non-residential floor area will occur in areas designated Natural Resources/Preservation. Pine Island Road District (PIRD) Assumptions for the Pine Island Road District classification include the following: Low Projection Residential Parcels will develop to the bottom of the range of dwelling units allowed by the Comprehensive Plan. Maximum Projection Residential Parcels will develop to the top of the range of dwelling units allowed by the Comprehensive Plan. A 6
Low Projection Non-Residential All parcels will develop with the same FAR (0.16) of existing non-residential development within the PIRD. Maximum Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop to the top of the range of non-residential floor area allowed by the Comprehensive Plan. Public Facilities (PF) Assumptions for the Public Facilities classification include the following: Low Projection Residential No dwelling units will develop, as none are allowed outside of the Urban Services Reserve Area. At build-out, there will be no Urban Services Reserve Area. Any existing dwelling units at the time of buildout would enjoy a legal non-conforming status, but are expected to be redeveloped with public facilities. Low Projection Non-Residential Parcels will develop with FAR of 0.10, the intensity of current non-residential Public Facilities development. Maximum Projection Residential No dwelling units will develop. Maximum Projection Non-Residential All parcels will develop with a FAR of 1.0. Single Family Residential (SF) Assumptions for the Single Family Residential classification include the following: Parcels less than or equal to 40,000 square feet in area The density of developed Single Family Residential properties less than or equal to 40,000 square feet in area was calculated to be 3.97 dwelling units per acre. The low projection assumes that future development of properties less than or equal to 40,000 square feet will develop to this same density, which is slightly lower than the maximum density allowed by the Comprehensive Plan, 4.4 dwelling units per acre. Development of one dwelling unit on each parcel less than or equal to 40,000 square feet would result in a density of 3.97 dwelling units per acre, thus confirming that this density is a reasonable assumption. This is indicative of the consistent subdivision pattern throughout Cape Coral. The maximum projection assumes development and redevelopment at 4.4 dwelling units per acre for all parcels. Parcels greater than 40,000 square feet in area Existing development and approved projects on sites greater than 40,000 square feet include some institutional uses such as houses of worship or utility facilities, subdivisions that have not been completed, single family development on large sites, and subdivision common elements such as landscaped areas and water management areas. The existing and proposed dwelling units from each of these areas was totaled for each subcategory, and is assumed to remain constant through build-out. It was assumed that unimproved sites greater than 40,000 square A 7
feet will yield the legal maximum of 4.4 dwelling units per acre. Single Family and Multi-Family by PDP (SM) Assumptions for the Single Family and Multiple Family Residential classification include the following: Parcels less than or equal to 40,000 square feet in area The density of developed Single Family and Multi-Family by PDP properties less than or equal to 40,000 square feet in area was calculated to be 3.98 dwelling units per acre. The low projection assumes that future development of properties less than or equal to 40,000 square feet will develop to this same density, which is slightly lower than the maximum density allowed by the Comprehensive Plan, 4.4 dwelling units per acre for parcels of this size. Ninety-seven percent (97%) of the SM dwelling units currently existing are single-family dwelling units. The maximum projection assumes development and redevelopment at 4.4 dwelling units per acre for all parcels. Parcels greater than 40,000 square feet in area Existing development and approved projects on sites greater than 40,000 square feet include some institutional uses such as houses of worship or utility facilities, subdivisions that have not been completed, single family development on large sites, and subdivision common elements such as landscaped areas and water management areas. Also, this report assume that 171 unimproved acres owned by the Lee County School District will be used for education facilities, although no development is approved for those properties. The existing and proposed dwelling units from each of these areas was totaled for each subcategory, and is assumed to remain constant through build-out. Unimproved sites greater than 40,000 square feet but less than 3 acres without existing or approved development are assumed to yield the legal maximum of 4.4 dwelling units per acre, for both the low and maximum projections. Parcels greater than 3 acres in area Both low and maximum projections for parcels greater than 3 acres, without existing or approved development, will yield the legal maximum of 16 dwelling units per acre. Sub-Districts Because the Comprehensive Plan provides specific maximum dwelling units and floor areas, those figures were used for both the low and maximum projections. A 8