Q2 2017 Results Property report MyHome.ie report in partnership with IRISH HOUSE PRICE INFLATION SHOULD REMAIN STRONG DESPITE END OF HELP-TO-BUY SCHEME
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Angela Keegan Managing Director MyHome.ie In this issue While our weather has cooled of late the same cannot be said about house prices. Our Q2 Property Report which is published in association with Davy shows that prices surged ahead in Q2 by 5%. In January we predicted that double digit price growth was a distinct possibility for the year but the latest figures indicate it is now more a probability. House price inflation will continue to be driven in the main by jobs growth, rising incomes and competition amongst homebuyers. In previous reports we also highlighted the inflationary impact of the Government s Help-to-Buy scheme and the relaxation of mortgage lending rules. While the Department of Finance has commissioned a review of Help-to-Buy, soundings from government and media reports suggest it may not be with us for much longer. In this report we look at the impact it s had on the market and the likely impact its demise will have on prices for the remainder of the year and into next year. Two noteworthy trends this quarter are the strong bounce back we are seeing in areas where the recovery in house prices began later while ever shortening sale agreed times provide further evidence of an extremely tight housing supply situation. Commentary from Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist, Davy Research...4 Property price register analysis...13 Three bed semi-detached asking prices...14 Dublin analysis...15 Regional analysis...16 About the report...20 Q2 highlights...22 About the Davy Group...23 The report also contains an in-depth analysis of mortgage lending figures, where new developments are being built as well as an analysis of house sales over the 1m mark. We hope you find it interesting and useful in equal measure.
IRISH HOUSE PRICE INFLATION SHOULD REMAIN STRONG DESPITE END OF HELP-TO-BUY SCHEME Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist, Davy Research Irish house price inflation should remain strong despite end of Help-to-Buy scheme The data from the MyHome Property Market report for Q2 2017 show another sharp rise in prices. Asking prices on the latest properties listed for sale on the MyHome website rose by 5.0% on the quarter, up 8.9% on the year. As asking prices tend to rise sharply during the first half of the calendar year but fall back after the busy summer period, we should not put too much weight on the 5% quarterly gain in Q2. Nonetheless, the 8.9% annual growth rate shows that sellers are sufficiently confident in Ireland s housing market to raise their prices aggressively. In our Q1 2017 MyHome report, we argued that Irish house price inflation was likely to accelerate significantly on the back of the relaxation of the Central Bank of Ireland s mortgage lending rules and as would-be buyers used the government s Help-to-Buy scheme to bid-up prices. The Irish Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) showed that prices accelerated to 10.5% in April 2017 the fastest pace in two years. We also know that the average mortgage loan to first-time buyers in Q1 2017 was 193,900, up 9.5% from one year ago. This trend of first-time buyers taking out higher levels of mortgage debt looks set to intensify. The average mortgage approval for first-time buyers was 204,000 in Q1 2017, up 14% on the year. Despite that, Central Bank data show that the median loan-to-income (LTI) ratio among first-time buyers was 3 times loan-toincome and 3.5 times loan-to-income. So there is still ample room for leverage to rise among potential buyers, driving up Irish house prices in the process. Indeed, the MyHome data for Q2 suggests that competition for homes will intensify through 2017. There were only 20,895 homes listed for sale, just 1% of the overall housing stock of 2m homes. The situation in Dublin is even more acute, with just 3,986 homes listed for sale. In this context, it is not surprising to see the average time to sale agreed fall to a fresh low of 3.8 months nationally and just 2.7 months in Dublin. As housing supply fails to keep pace with demand, whatever housing stock is listed for sale is being snapped up ever more quickly by desperate buyers. The outlook for Irish house price inflation will be primarily driven by robust jobs growth, rising incomes and competition among homebuyers, leading to more highly leveraged mortgage lending. However, following comments from new Irish Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy, it now seems likely that the Help-to-Buy scheme will be eliminated in Budget 2018 in October. This could lead to a rush of transactions in 2017 as first-time buyers move quickly to avail of the scheme and a slowdown in 2018 as Help-to-Buy is phased out. Nonetheless, the bigger picture is that Irish house price inflation should remain robust, driven by the recovering economy and rising incomes, despite the end of the Help-to-Buy scheme. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 4
Asking prices, Dublin and national Table 1 Price ( ) % change quarter-on-quarter National (stock) 224,500 2.8% 5.5% Dublin (stock) 313,500 3.2% 5.9% National (new instructions) 251,500 5.0% 8.9% Dublin (new instructions) 360,000 2.8% 10.3% % change year-on-year Report shows sharp price rises in second quarter The latest MyHome property report shows another robust rise in asking prices in the second quarter of 2017. Asking prices on the 9,854 newly listed properties for sale rose by 5.0% in Q2 2017, up 8.9% on the year. In Dublin, asking prices rose by 2.8% with annual house price inflation now 10.3%. Overall, this leaves the annual rate of asking price inflation broadly unchanged from the strong rate of price growth recorded in Q1. There are currently just under 21,000 homes listed for sale on the MyHome website. The mix-adjusted asking price on this entire stock rose by 2.8% in Q2 2017, up 5.5% on the year. However, we prefer to focus on price movements on newly listed properties, rather than the entire stock, as they are a better guide to transaction prices. The acceleration in house price inflation signalled in our last MyHome report has materialised. The RPPI rose by 10.5% in the year to April, back in double-digit territory for the first time since early 2015. There has been strong catch-up in areas where the recovery in house prices began later. House price inflation was 17% in the border region, 18% in the west and 14% Asking prices, Dublin and national Figure 1 yoy % 25 National Asking Prices (New Instructions) Dublin Asking Prices (New Instructions) 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 5
in the south-west. Housing supply: tighter and tighter Ireland s housing market continues to tighten. At end-q2 2017, there were 20,895 properties listed for sale on MyHome down 11.2% on the year. There was a small rise compared with Q1 s figure of 19,400 but this is in line with usual seasonal trends. The bigger picture is that just 1% of Ireland s housing stock of 2m homes is currently listed for sale. The lack of supply in Dublin is even starker with just 3,986 homes, or 0.85% of the capital s stock, listed for sale. With growing numbers of buyers chasing a smaller pool of homes listed for sale, it is not surprising to see the average time to sale agreed continue to shorten. In Q2 2017, the average time to sale agreed declined to 3.8 months since Q1 2011. In Dublin, the average time to sale agreed fell below three months for the first time to 2.7 months. Clearly, whatever stock is available is being snapped up quickly by growing numbers of buyers. Despite the tighter market, residential transaction volumes look set to show growth in 2017. So far, the Irish Residential Property Price Register indicates that there have been 16,975 transactions in 2017, worth 4.4bn. We estimate this means that transaction volumes were up 8% in the first four months of 2017 compared with 2016. The bulk of this growth in Irish residential transactions has been accounted for by first-time buyers financed by mortgage debt, with cash investors becoming a less important part of the market. According to the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI), mortgage loans for house purchase were up 26% year-on-year in Q1 2017. This meant that the mortgage market accounted for 55% of transactions in the first quarter. Properties listed for sale and average time to sale agreed Figure 2 Properties Listed for Sale, 50 000s Homes listed for sale (LHS) 45 Average Time to Sale Agreed (RHS) Months 12 40 10 35 30 82 25 6 20 15 4 10 2 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 6
Transactions for homes exceeding 1m continue to grow With the growth of residential housing transactions held back by the lack of housing supply, an alternative 3 barometer is the number of properties sold for prices exceeding 1m. Figure 3 illustrates that the number of residential property transactions exceeding 1m rose to a fresh high of 638 in 2016, quadrupling from a low Residential transactions exceeding 1m Figure 3 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 June 2017 Split of transactions exceeding 1m in Dublin Figure 4 Dublin 4 Dublin 6 Dublin 18 Dublin 14 Blackrock Dalkey & Killiney Dun Laoghaire, Glenageary and Sandycove North Dublin Other MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 7
of 160 in 2011. In value terms, transactions exceeding 1m equalled 1.4bn up from just 160m in 2011. Figure 4 provides a geographical breakdown in the capital. Not surprisingly, 547 of the 638 transactions exceeding 1m were in Dublin. However, Cork (21), Wicklow (18) and Galway (12) also saw a number of transactions over 1m. Within Dublin, transactions exceeding 1m took place predominantly south of the river Liffey. That said, areas in north County Dublin saw 20 transactions exceeding 1m in areas such as Howth, Malahide and Kinsealy. Clontarf also had nine transactions exceeding 1m in 2016. On the south side, Dublin 4 (136) comprising the exclusive Ballsbridge area dominated, accounting for 20% of the national total of transactions exceeding 1m. Similarly, Dublin 6 comprising Rathmines, Ranelagh and Rathgar had 100 transactions. Thereafter, the south Dublin coastline accounted for a significant portion Blackrock (39), Dalkey and Killiney (36), Dun Laoghaire (11), Glenageary (11) and Help-to-buy applications Table 2 2016 2017 Help-to-buy claims 1012 1240 Help-to-buy applications 1369 5906 Sandycove (11). Dublin 18, including the Foxrock area, also had 44 transactions exceeding 1m and Dublin 14 had 28 transactions. Prospects for transactions in the higher end brackets of the market look upbeat. MyHome currently has 545 listings for sale with an asking price exceeding 1m. In addition, 221 properties exceeding 1m have recently had agreed sales. Once again, high-end Dublin localities dominate the listings exceeding 1m; however, we are increasingly seeing properties outside the capital listed above this threshold. The impact of the Help-to-Buy scheme There have been 1,240 Help-to-Buy claims so far in 2017, equivalent to 38% of first-time buyers in the first quarter. There were 5,906 applications up to 16th June, close to one-third of the 16,975 residential transactions so far in 2017. Of course, many of these applications will not come to fruition with many potential buyers no doubt bidding for the same properties. Nonetheless, the revenue data on Help-to- Buy suggest that it has had a significant impact on the housing market. The 1,679 Help-to-Buy claims approved have cost 24.5m. This means that the average Help-to- Buy cash rebate has equalled 15,000, or 5% of a 300,000 newly built home. Given the 7,275 applications received so far, the initial estimate that the scheme would cost 50m may now seem conservative. What evidence there is suggests that the price of newly built homes is rising faster than existing dwellings. Our MyHome mix-adjusted asking price for newly built homes increased by 12.4% in the year to Q2 2017 compared with a 5.3% rise for second-hand homes. However, the series for newly built homes is built on relatively few observations. The Department of Finance has commissioned a review of the Help-to-Buy scheme due to be published in August. Given comments from new Minister of Housing Eoghan Murphy and media reports from anonymous government sources, it now seems likely that the report will inevitably find that the Help-to-Buy scheme has been inflationary and will be eliminated in the October Budget for 2018. The impact on Irish house price inflation will depend on when Help-to-Buy is eliminated. It is already likely that would-be buyers will rush to avail of the scheme. Since 18th May, applications have increased by almost MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 8
Irish housing completions Figure 5 000s 100 Housing Completions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 1,000. This could create extra demand for housing in 2017 followed by a cooling off period in 2018 when the tax rebate will probably no longer be available. That said, as we discuss below, income growth, coupled with growing leverage in the mortgage market, will ensure that Irish house price inflation remains strong despite the end of Help-to-Buy. Newly built developments listed on MyHome by geography Figure 6 Dublin Kildare Meath Wicklow Cork Others MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 9
Homebuilding still gearing up from low base According to the Department of Housing, Planning, Community and Local Government, there were 15,684 housing completions in the 12 months to March 2017. This is the highest 12-month total since October 2010. Nonetheless, homebuilding levels remain well below natural demographic demand of at least 30,000 per annum. Commencements and new house guarantee registrations were also up 33% and 75% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter. A range of other indicators point to rapidly expanding homebuilding activity, albeit from a low base. The Construction PMI was 63.6 in May, led by homebuilding at 69.2 compared with commercial building at 65.2 and civil engineering at 51.8. Ireland s Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) showed employment in construction up 8.5% in the year to Q1 2017 to 142,500. The official Central Statistics Office (CSO) data indicated that planning permissions for residential units rose by 50% in the year to Q1 2017 to 4,650. Our more timely measure derived from Construction Information Services shows permissions up 60% in the first five months of 2017 compared with the same period of 2016. One difficulty in measuring housing supply is gauging the number of newly built homes that will soon come to the market. On the MyHome website, there are currently 342 listings for sale from separate new developments. However, the size of these schemes can vary from 10 to 20 homes up to developments of 200-300 homes. However, in most cases, it is not possible to determine when different phases of the developments will come to the market. Figure 6 shows that the majority of new residential developments are in the Dublin area and its commuter belt. Lending data point to house price rises According to the BPFI, the average mortgage loan in Q1 2017 was 207,900 up 8.5% on the year. Approvals data indicate that homebuyers are taking out even higher levels of mortgage debt. The average mortgage approval in Q1 2017 was 212,300, up 9.7% on the year. The trend of rising levels of mortgage debt is particularly acute among first-time buyers. In Q1, the average mortgage loan to first-time buyers rose by 9.5% to 194,000 and approval up 14% to 204,000. This pick-up in lending in early 2017 must in part reflect the relaxation of the Average mortgage loans for house purchase Figure 7 0000s 310 Average loan house purchase Average approved loan house purchase 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 10
Average mortgage lending statistics Table 3 First-time buyers Mover-purchasers 2016H1 2016H2 2016H1 2016H2 Loan size ( ) 180,000 190,000 212,000 220,000 Income 66,000 68,000 105,000 106,000 Loan-to-Value (%) 78.6% 79.0% 66.2% 66.3% Loan-to-Income 2.9x 2.9x 2.4x 2.4x Source: Central Bank of Ireland mortgage lending rules in late 2016 eliminating restrictions on issuance of 90% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages to first-time buyers. Central Bank data on lending in H2 2016 suggest that leverage remains relatively contained. The average LTI multiple for first-time buyers in H2 2016 was 2.9x, similar to that in H1 2016. The pick-up in average loan size to 190,000 was driven by a rise in the average earnings of a first-time buyer from 66,000 to 68,000 rather than rising leverage. However, the 14% annual growth in the average approval to first-time buyers to 204,000 in Q1 2017 suggests leverage and LTI multiples are now rising. Nonetheless, median LTI multiples are well below the 3.5x threshold stipulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. This means that leverage is likely to continue rising, driving house prices higher through 2017 and into 2018. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 11
MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 12
Property Price Register analysis Residential transaction volumes fell slightly in 2016 to 47,500 from 48,950 the previous year. This was the first year transaction volumes declined since Ireland s housing market recovery began in 2012. So far, the data for 2017 indicate that Ireland s housing market will see modest growth in transaction volumes. The Property Price Register update on 15th June indicated that there have been 4.4bn of residential transactions so far in 2017. In volume terms, this is equivalent to 16,975 transactions. Our estimate up to end-april is that residential transaction volumes grew by 8% in the first four months of 2017 compared with the previous year. The bulk of this growth in transactions reflects the mortgage market. We estimate that mortgages accounted for 55% of transactions in Q1 2017, up from 52% in calendar year 2016. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 13
3 BED SEMI-DETACHED ASKING PRICES DONEGAL 95,000 0% l -54.76% LEITRIM 85,000 0% l -62.88% MONAGHAN SLIGO 142,500 5.56% l -45.71% 122,500-5.04% l -57.39% CAVAN MAYO ROSCOMMON 129,250 3.40% l -41.25% LOUTH 125,000 0% l -45.65% 75,000 0% l -66.67% 185,000 5.71% l -43.77% LONGFORD 70,000 0% l -67.44% MEATH 199,000 2.05% l -39.70% WESTMEATH GALWAY DUBLIN 139,000 2.96% l -48.52% 200,000 1.01% l -32.77% 290,500 1.72% l -37.23% KILDARE OFFALY 200,000 0.38% l -42.86% 130,000 2.36% l -55.17% WICKLOW LAOIS CLARE CARLOW 143,750 0.88% l -46.16% Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) LIMERICK 135,000 3.85% -48.52% TIPPERARY 159,500 2.90% l -33.54% KILKENNY 135,000 1.89% l -41.30% 165,000 10% l -43.40% WEXFORD 155,000 4.03% l -48.16% WATERFORD KERRY 140,000 3.70% l -42.86% 285,000 0% l -36.31% 130,000 0% l -48.00% 150,000 0.33% l -47.37% CORK asse t management c apital marke ts 220,000 corpor ate 4.76% l -34.33% finance private clients rese arch COUNTY ANALYSIS Median asking price Q2 2017 % change Q2 2017 l % change from peak Colour variations MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 14
DUBLIN ANALYSIS DUBLIN OVERALL Dublin area analysis According to the CSO RPPI index, house price inflation slowed to just 2.0% in June 2016. However, since then, Dublin house price inflation has found renewed impetus, rinsing to 8.1% in April. Apartment prices were up 8.6%. Moreover, the acceleration has occurred in the expensive south Dublin (8.7%) and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown (6.5%) areas. In Dublin city, prices rose by 11.0% on the year. In contrast, prices in Fingal were up just 2.2% in the year to April. The MyHome report shows that robust rises in asking prices continued in the second quarter of 2017. Asking prices on the latest properties listed for sale increased by 3.6% on the quarter, up 10.3% on the year. Similarly, the asking price on the total stock of Dublin homes listed for sale on the MyHome website rose by 3.2% on the quarter, up 5.9% on the year. These price rises mean that the median price for a four-bedroom, detached house has risen to 650,000 for the first time since 2010. Similarly, the asking price on the median three-bed, semi-detached house in Dublin now stands at 295,000. In Dublin south city, the median price rose by 10% on the year to 275,000 and in Dublin south by 1.4% to 355,000. In Dublin north, the median asking price was 277,000 up 4.5% on the year. Dublin west also saw a substantial gain with prices up 6.8% to Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) 235,000. 290,000 3.57% DUBLIN NORTH 277,000 4.53% DUBLIN WEST 235,000 6.82% DUBLIN NORTH CITY 210,000 13.51% DUBLIN SOUTH CITY 275,000 10% DUBLIN SOUTH 355,000 1.43% asse t management c apital marke ts DUBLIN REGION Median price Q2 2017 rese arch corpor ate finance private clients % Annual Change Colour variations MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 15
REGIONAL ANALYSIS The national median asking price on new homes listed for sale rose to 250,000 in Q2 2017, up 6.4% on the year. The median asking price in Dublin was 350,000 and 205,000 in the rest of the country. In the commuter belt counties, the median asking price rose to 240,000 in Kildare, up 3.9% on the year, and by 2.1% in Wicklow to 295,000. In Meath, the median asking price fell slightly to 240,000. Leinster Prices in Leinster showed strong gains through the second quarter. In Carlow, the median asking price rose to 165,000 up 10% on the year. Prices in Kilkenny, one of the more expensive counties, were up 5.3% on the year to 189,500. In Laois, prices were flat at 150,000. However, Longford has seen a 4.5% rise over the past year, albeit only to 99,500. In Louth, prices were up 5.6% on the year to 190,000. Offaly saw some of the strongest growth over the past 12 months, rising by 15.8% to 165,000. In Westmeath, prices were up 10.8% to 155,000 and by 6.5% in Wexford to 155,000. Munster In Clare, prices fell marginally on the quarter to 170,000. However, the median price in Cork rose by 1.7% on the quarter to 220,000. In Cork city, the price gains were more pronounced up 4.4% on the year. In Kerry, prices were up 3.6% on the year to 175,000. Prices in Limerick showed a strong recovery, up 14% on the year to 159,500, and by 14.8% in Limerick city to 155,000. Price moves in Tipperary remained muted, flat on the quarter at 150,000. In Waterford, prices were up 4.3% on the year to 170,000 and by 23% in Waterford city to 135,000. Connacht/Ulster Prices in Galway continued to move consistently upward. The median asking price was 205,000 in Q2, up 10.8% on the year. In Galway city, the median price was 242,500 up 9.0% on the year. In Leitrim, prices were up 5.3% on the year, albeit only to 114,500. In Mayo, prices were up 10.4% on the year to 149,000. Roscommon continued to buck the national trend with the median asking price falling for the fourth time in the last four quarters to 105,000. In Sligo, prices were up 16% to 149,000. In Cavan, asking prices were relatively static at 150,000. In Donegal, prices were flat at 135,000. In Monaghan, prices rose by 3.6% on the quarter to 145,000. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 16
REGIONAL ANALYSIS GALWAY CITY 242,500 7.78% LIMERICK CITY 155,000 3.33% WATERFORD CITY 135,000 8% Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) CORK CITY 239,500 1.91% asse t management c apital REGIONmarke ts Median price Q2 2017 corpor ate finance private clients rese arch % change Q2 2017 Colour variations MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 17
County analysis: two-bedroom apartments In total, 23 counties saw positive annual growth in the asking price for two-bedroom apartments in the year to Q2. In many cases, price gains exceeded 20%, especially in areas where the recovery in the housing market began later. In Cork, asking prices increased by 17% over the past 12 months to 162,500 and by 25% in Galway to 150,000. However, Laois (14%), Leitrim (32%), Limerick (34%), Longford (20%), Louth (24%), Roscommon (23%), Sligo (17%), Tipperary (16%) and Westmeath (29%) have all seen strong gains. In contrast, Dublin and its hinterland are seeing more subdued price gains. In Dublin, the median price of a twobedroomed apartment was up 4.3% on the year to 240,000. Prices in Kildare were up 6.4% to 149,000, 10.2% in Meath to 135,000 and 7.1% in Wicklow to 225,000. 2-bed apartments asking prices County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Dublin MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 18 Q2 2017 79,500 65,000 79,000 162,475 45,000 150,000 117,500 149,000 115,000 80,000 79,000 92,500 59,475 105,000 97,250 135,000 75,000 55,000 49,250 69,000 56,000 65,000 79,950 110,000 225,000 240,000 Quarterly change -6.47% -2.99% 12.86% 8.32% 7.91% -16.07% 6.67% 13.02% 8.82% 10.65% 5.00% -2.75% 3.85% -6.78% -0.51% 6.15% 1.82% 1.20% -4.35% 2.27% 4.35% Table 3 Annual change 11.58% 43.64% 16.89% 25.00% -16.07% 6.43% 4.55% 14.37% 31.67% 34.06% 20.15% 23.53% -2.75% 10.20% 14.50% -3.51% 23.13% 16.95% 15.52% 8.33% 2.17% 29.41% 7.14% 4.35%
County analysis: four-bedroom, semi-detached Twenty-four counties have seen positive growth in the asking prices of four-bed, semi-detached houses. In Dublin, the median asking price was up 1% on the year to 440,000. Similarly, prices in Kildare were up 1.9% to 275,000 and by 1.4% in Meath to 250,000. In Wicklow, the median price was 375,000 up 5.8% on last year. Once again, however, price gains have been more marked outside the capital. In Kilkenny, the median price was up 25% to 250,000 and by 28% in Galway to 229,500. Donegal (14.9%), Leitrim (9.5%), Limerick (12.9%), Roscommon (13.1%) and Sligo (14.2%) have also seen double-digit price gains over the past 12 months. In Cork, prices were up 5% on the year to 270,000. 4-bed semi-detached asking prices County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Dublin Q2 2017 177,250 145,000 166,975 270,000 135,000 229,500 148,500 275,000 250,000 149,000 115,000 197,500 89,950 225,000 140,000 250,000 172,500 177,475 99,000 177,000 160,000 185,000 170,000 165,000 375,000 440,000 Quarterly change 3.52% 7.41% 5.02% 3.85% 1.50% 6.74% 1.37% 19.05% -14.86% 3.95% 12.44% -1.58% 0.40% 4.55% 2.88% -9.17% 2.61% 6.67% -1.45% -1.20% -1.32% 3.53% Table 4 Annual change 4.28% 5.49% 5.02% 5.88% 14.89% 27.50% 6.07% 1.86% 25.00% -10.24% 9.52% 12.86% 5.82% 9.76% 3.70% 1.42% 1.47% 5.48% 13.14% 14.19% 6.86% 6.94% 3.13% 5.78% 1.15% MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 19
ABOUT THE REPORT Graham Neary, Equity Portfolio Manager, London Graham is an equity portfolio manager based in London where he manages funds for an international mutual organisation with over 14 billion in assets under management and one million members across Canada, the US and the UK. He has over six years of financial market experience, holds a degree in mathematics from Trinity College Dublin, and is a CFA Charterholder (Chartered Financial Analyst). MyHome.ie Property Report: The Method The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie with comparisons by quarter over the last eight years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationwide. The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Our data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie. Our main indices have been constructed with a widely-used regression technique which adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured. Our method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix. For detailed statistics at a local level, we also provide a wide selection of median asking prices broken down by county or by urban location. For analysis of the Property Price Register prices were adjusted upwards to account for VAT where necessary, and only full market value prices were used. Wild card of Brexit has not had a material impact in 2017. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 20
RAW DATA Q2 2006 - Q2 2017 Data table (raw data) Table 6 INDICES National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 138.57 139.24 134.67 139.23 Q2 2007 137.57 138.80 137.85 137.59 Q4 2007 136.30 134.64 136.16 136.43 Q2 2008 132.29 130.23 131.68 132.50 Q4 2008 122.08 118.40 124.59 121.84 Q2 2009 112.90 107.03 114.14 112.69 Q4 2009 104.25 96.76 105.95 104.02 Q2 2010 97.41 88.77 97.01 97.32 Q4 2010 90.59 82.07 91.88 90.33 Q2 2011 83.40 74.82 87.88 82.91 Q4 2011 78.80 70.02 85.80 78.17 Q2 2012 70.78 61.69 82.25 70.18 % Change National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 1.28% -0.28% 0.56% 1.42% Q2 2007-0.43% -0.06% 1.43% -0.73% Q4 2007-0.21% -1.36% -0.88% -0.12% Q2 2008-1.53% -2.01% -1.83% -1.48% Q4 2008-2.96% -4.37% -2.66% -3.00% Q2 2009-1.48% -2.33% -0.61% -1.59% Q4 2009-3.54% -4.11% -3.74% -3.45% Q2 2010-3.37% -4.52% -4.27% -3.31% Q4 2010-3.24% -3.39% -3.44% -3.16% Q2 2011-3.99% -5.22% -0.58% -4.27% Q4 2011 Q2 2012-2.36% -3.23% -2.76% -4.72% -0.91% -1.21% -2.47% -3.16% Standard Price National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 414,374 532,642 360,714 422,990 Q2 2007 411,373 530,979 369,248 418,002 Q4 2007 407,565 515,053 364,713 414,468 Q2 2008 395,597 498,194 352,707 402,545 Q4 2008 365,057 452,921 333,730 370,139 Q2 2009 337,603 409,448 305,716 342,343 Q4 2009 311,727 370,137 283,795 316,019 Q2 2010 291,278 339,598 259,845 295,657 Q4 2010 270,886 313,965 246,108 274,429 Q2 2011 249,385 286,227 235,400 251,893 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 235,642 211,651 267,865 235,983 229,809 220,314 237,474 213,214 Data table (raw data) Table 7 INDICES National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012 67.16 61.64 78.07 66.76 Q2 2013 64.71 62.22 73.81 64.54 Q4 2013 63.23 63.10 71.41 63.22 Q2 2014 63.61 66.75 68.11 63.82 Q4 2014 64.91 70.27 64.20 65.35 Q2 2015 67.48 73.71 67.00 68.00 Q4 2015 68.57 74.74 67.04 69.01 Q2 2016 71.14 77.43 72.19 71.60 Q4 2016 71.88 78.14 76.42 72.21 Q1 2017 73.02 79.45 77.21 73.34 Q2 2017 75.06 81.97 81.10 75.39 % Change National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012-2.94% -1.64% -3.22% -2.83% Q2 2013-1.93% 0.98% -2.43% -1.76% Q4 2013-0.89% 0.55% -2.58% -0.82% Q2 2014 1.32% 4.45% -2.25% 1.60% Q4 2014 0.59% 2.19% 0.10% 0.66% Q2 2015 1.71% 2.31% 1.65% 1.80% Q4 2015-0.06% -1.48% -0.08% Q2 2016 2.47% 2.03% 4.91% 2.47% Q4 2016 0.13% 0.51% 0.89% 0.04% Q1 2017 1.59% 1.68% 1.03% 1.57% Q2 2017 2.80% 3.18% 5.04% 2.79% Standard Price National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012 200,836 235,787 209,114 202,806 Q2 2013 193,488 238,013 197,699 196,058 Q4 2013 189,086 241,392 191,266 192,071 Q2 2014 190,216 255,362 182,449 193,878 Q4 2014 194,089 268,816 171,963 198,543 Q2 2015 201,798 281,958 179,452 206,581 Q4 2015 205,031 285,921 179,557 209,639 Q2 2016 212,725 296,190 193,352 217,527 Q4 2016 214,931 298,912 204,697 219,379 Q1 2017 218,348 303,924 206,815 222,818 Q2 2017 224,452 313,586 217,239 229,034 MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2015 2017 21
Q2 Highlights MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2017 22
ABOUT THE DAVY GROUP Established in 1926, the Davy Group is Ireland s leading provider of wealth management, asset management, capital markets, and financial advisory services. Davy is headquartered in Dublin, with offices in London, Belfast, Cork and Galway. Employing over 670 people, Davy offers a broad range of services to private clients, small businesses, corporations and institutional investors, and organise its activities around four interrelated business areas Wealth and Asset Management, Capital Markets, Corporate Finance and Research. Davy s Wealth and Asset Management business manages over 14bn on behalf of Irish and International clients*. Davy is Ireland s leading wealth manager providing a financial planning led private client service backed up by global investment portfolios driven by a proprietary investment process. As the leading broker in the Irish market, we accounted for over 46%** of all dealings in Irish equities on the Irish Stock Exchange in 2015. Davy is a primary dealer in Irish Government Bonds and acts as arranger on most Irish corporate bond issues. We advise 56%** of companies on the Irish Stock Exchange, including 6 of Ireland s top 10 listed companies*. We are Ireland s leading ESM and AIM adviser, representing approximately 75% of companies quoted on the ESM market**, and 17 companies quoted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange***. Davy is responsible for over 75% of funds raised on the Irish Stock Exchange in 2014 and 2015** and has been consistently recognised by the world s top names in financial services for the quality of research and service. * Data correct as of January 2016 ** Source: Irish Stock Exchange *** Source: London Stock Exchange asset management capital markets corporate finance private clients research MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2015 2017 23
This is your world. This is where you hope to live, wish to work, dream of escaping to. This is thousands of homes at one address. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q2 2015 24 Thousands of homes @ one address