April 9, 1 BC Housing Outlook CONTACTS BC s major housing markets have cooled sharply in early 1. While much of the slowdown likely reflects buyers bringing forward purchases ahead of the new stress test rules that took effect on January 1, strained affordability, rising interest rates and additional provincial tax measures all are expected to weigh on sales activity this year. While the latest market and policy shifts may slow near-term price increases, notably for units at or above median prices, land constraints and population growth are expected to continue to pressure prices over the medium- and longer-term. Notwithstanding the pickup in homebuilding in recent years, more supply is needed to move rental and homeowner markets back into better balance, particularly at low- and mid-price points. The Province s 3-point Homes for B.C. supplements existing measures to respond to the complex challenge and escalating housing issues beyond Vancouver, in Kelowna, the Fraser Valley, and south Vancouver Island. The Plan s expected three-year outcome is measured progress on a longer-term workout. But, as the Province acknowledges, the cumulative housing supply shortfall for low- and middle-income families is large, requiring extended action, hence its ten-year goals. Thus, for moderately priced homes, such as row or apartment units, prices for at least the next few years are still likely to outstrip income gains. Adrienne Warren 1..31 Scotiabank Economics adrienne.warren@scotiabank.com Mary Webb 1.. Scotiabank Economics mary.webb@scotiabank.com Marc Desormeaux 1..733 Scotiabank Economics marc.desormeaux@scotiabank.com REGULATORY CHANGES ADD TO MARKET VOLATILITY Sales activity across BC s major housing markets, including Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Victoria, has cooled sharply in the opening months of 1. The weakening in demand follows strong sales in late 17, suggesting many buyers pulled forward their purchases ahead of the new tougher mortgage stress tests that took effect January 1 st. Taking a less volatile threemonth trend shows a far less dramatic drop that leaves sales above their 1-year average (chart 1). Constrained listings and deteriorating affordability amid rapidly rising home prices and recent interest rate increases may also be contributing to the moderation in demand. A clearer underlying picture of the industry s momentum should emerge in the coming months as buyers and sellers adjust to the new federal rules, as well as to the additional policy measures announced in BC s February budget. At the same time, home prices have continued to accelerate. After a brief adjustment in 1 following earlier federal regulatory tightening and the implementation of BC s foreign buyers tax, the composite benchmark house price (HPI) in Greater Vancouver hit a record CAD 1. mn in March, up 1% from a year earlier. In the highly competitive market for townhomes and condominiums, where demand is high and listings are scarce, prices have surged 1% y/y and % y/y, respectively. Demand and pricing remain much softer in the single-family home market out of reach for most first-time buyers and many move-up buyers. Chart 1 1 1 1 BC Home Sales s of units, annualized 3 month moving average 1-year average 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. 1
April 9, 1 The strong momentum in home sales and price appreciation in Vancouver has spread to other municipalities in the province, both within and beyond commuting distance. Robust local job markets, steady population growth, and relatively better affordability, are among the factors contributing to historically strong housing demand in areas such as Victoria, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, which alongside Vancouver account for more than two thirds of BC s population. Major agglomerations outside Vancouver have all witnessed stepped-up price gains in the last two years (chart ). These centres also are benefitting from a steady migration of residents from the Vancouver CMA to other parts of British Columbia (chart 3). Their housing markets remain tilted in favour of sellers, with restrained resale listings insufficient to meet demand. Year-over-year house prices in February were up 1% in Victoria and % in the Fraser Valley. Sales activity remains more subdued in many Northern BC communities grappling with uneven recoveries in the mining and oil & gas sectors. Even here, however, demand has been resilient, with less volatility of prior commodity cycles. Average home prices in the region are more or less stable amid balanced supply conditions. The combination of the new mortgage rules, additional provincial housing taxes, and rising interest rates will likely lead to some softening in home sales this year. The Bank of Canada estimates about 1% of potential buyers in Vancouver and surrounding areas are affected by the tougher stress tests. The overall decline in sales, however, is expected to be somewhat smaller, as some potential buyers may choose to purchase lower-priced homes, while others may consider alternative financing options, including extended amortizations, larger down payments, or alternative lenders not subject to the OSFI mortgage guidelines. Average MLS home prices are forecast to post another year of relatively moderate low single-digit increase in 1, though this in part reflects the continuing compositional shift in sales toward lower-priced dwellings. Benchmark home prices in BC s Lower Mainland and south Vancouver Island, measured by the MLS HPI, are forecast to increase by a stronger 1% given tight demand-supply conditions in the row and apartment segments, though this still represents a notable moderation from the 1 % annual increases seen in 1 17. Chart 3 1 1-1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. Chart 3 - - - - -1 Home Prices Outside Vancouver MLS HPI, annual % change Victoria Fraser Valley Vancouver Island Net Intraprovincial Migration s Abbotsford-Mission, Kelowna and Victoria CMAs Vancouver CMA FUNDAMENTALS UNDERPINNING DEMAND Housing demand is underpinned by healthy fundamentals, including strong economic growth, low unemployment, rising wages, and still-low borrowing costs. BC s -1 1 1 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. annual real GDP growth averaged an impressive 3.% from 1 17, about 1½ percentage points above the national pace. The unemployment rate has dropped to near a decade low below %. This robust economic performance is expected to cool toward a still reasonably good % expansion by 19. Demographic trends also are supportive, including ageing millennials and increased international and interprovincial inmigration. Net international immigration to BC totaled almost, in the twelve months to Q 17, while the number of nonpermanent residents increased by almost,. These inflows are set to climb even higher under Ottawa s increased immigration targets through, and with universities continuing to ramp up international recruitment. About % of immigrants and non-permanent residents to BC in recent years have settled in Vancouver. Interprovincial migration into BC appears to have peaked as Alberta s strengthening economic and labour market recovery pulls some migrants back into the province, but is expected to remain positive. Net interprovincial inflows totaled just over 1, in the twelve months to Q 17, the lowest level since 1 and down from a recent peak of almost 7, in mid-1 (chart ). In recent years, about one-third of net interprovincial migrants to BC have landed in Vancouver.
April 9, 1 Foreign capital inflows add another demand channel. Non-resident buyers continue to account for a relatively steady % of home purchases in Metro Vancouver (chart ), and around 3% of purchases in the province outside Metro Vancouver. To date there is little evidence that the 1% foreign buyer s tax in Metro Vancouver has diverted purchases toward other jurisdictions inside or outside of the province. It remains to be seen if the subsequent increase in the tax to % and its expansion beyond Metro Vancouver will have a more significant dampening impact on sales. AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGES TO PERSIST The ongoing erosion in affordability for buyers presents downside risk to BC s relative provincial competitiveness. Mortgage carrying costs as a share of median household income to purchase an average priced home in Vancouver is near its highest level ever at over % 1. Even condominiums are increasingly out of reach for new homebuyers, absorbing more than % of median income. Affordability pressures for both first-time and move-up buyers also are building in other parts of the province, primarily in Southern BC, where property values have risen rapidly. Affordability is set to deteriorate further in 1 19 as borrowing costs drift higher. The Bank of Canada, after raising its policy rate basis points in January, is expected to follow up with two more rate hikes this year and to continue on a gradual tightening path with three more hikes in 19. The -year fixed mortgage rate could increase by 1 bps from current levels by the end of 19 alongside rising bond yields. This affordability challenge will not be easily resolved. Average home prices in Vancouver would need to drop by about % from current levels in order to bring mortgage carrying costs relative to household income back to its long-term average of around %. Conversely, it would take ten years of stagnant home prices and moderate income growth at prevailing interest rates to arrive at the same result. Higher interest rates and the latest regulatory changes could slow upward price pressures in the near-term. However, over the medium- and longer-term, there is a strong likelihood that average home prices in BC s largest urban centres will continue to trend higher, supported by a growing population and rising land costs. GROWING RENTAL DEMAND A combination of economic and demographic factors, including high home prices, ageing millennials, downsizing seniors, and increased in-migration, are contributing to growing rental demand. Between 11 and 1, the number of renter households in Vancouver increased by 1,1, almost double the,1 increase over the preceding five-year period and easily eclipsing the, increase in owner-occupiers. The homeownership rate dropped from.% to 3.7% over this period. Homeownership rates also have edged lower in Victoria, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna (chart ). The shift away from homeownership has spurred demand in BC s secondary rental market. Rental condos last year amounted to % of Vancouver s purpose-built rental units; in Victoria, their share was a smaller but significant 3%. Yet these units are rarely a viable option for lower-middle class individuals given that average rents on 1 Our affordability calculation is based on the MLS HPI, and assumes a % downpayment, a -year amortization, and the discounted -year fixed mortgage rate. Chart 3 1 Interprovincial -1 Non-permanent residents - 1 1 1 1 Chart 1 1 1 1 Net Migration to BC s, four-quarter moving sum Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. Metro Vancouver Home Purchases By Non-Residents % share of total home purchases International Immigration Jun/1 Dec/1 Jun/17 Dec/17 Chart 7 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BC Finance. % Homeownership Rate Victoria Kelowna Vancouver Abbotsford- Mission 71 7 1 91 9 1 11 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. 3
April 9, 1 -bedroom condominium apartments are roughly % higher than those of purposebuilt rental units in Vancouver and Victoria. A third rental market segment comprises a broad basket of housing types for rent, from single-detached homes to duplexes to accessory suites. As of October 1, this tranche accounted for 1% of the universe of rental units in both Vancouver and Victoria. Notwithstanding increased apartment completions, Vancouver s rental vacancy rate has held at or below 1% since 1 for both purpose-built rentals and rented condominiums. Victoria, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna report similarly tight vacancy rates below 1% since 1 and rapidly climbing rents. Even the latter city, known for more modestly rising rents, saw its cumulative post-recession rent increase surpass the national rise by 1 (chart 7). With rental housing demand expected to remain high in coming years, even more rental supply is required to lift vacancy rates back to more balanced levels of about 3%. From a shelter cost perspective, renting would appear to be a good alternative to buying. For example, the average monthly carrying cost (including property taxes, insurance and strata fees) to purchase a -bedroom condominium in Vancouver is about % higher than the average monthly rent for a similar apartment. In Victoria, the purchase premium is about 3%. INCREASED NEW HOUSING SUPPLY IN THE PIPELINE Homebuilders are responding to the sustained strength in housing demand and rising new home prices. Annual housing starts in Vancouver averaged a record 7, units in 1 17. The pickup in activity has been led by multi-units (including the highest level of purpose-built apartment construction since the 197s), though construction of single-family homes also has increased. A record, housing units are currently under construction across the Vancouver CMA (chart ). The Victoria, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna CMAs likewise report a record number of new units under development. Despite the higher level of new construction, new home supply remains tight. In Vancouver, the inventory of newly completed and unsold single-family homes is edging up but remains in line with its long-term average, while the inventory of unsold multi-unit homes is near a record low (chart 9). New home inventory also is at historic lows in Victoria, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna. BUT MORE SUPPLY IS NEEDED Annual household formation, a key driver in the demand for new housing, in BC has averaged around, in recent years (roughly 1, renters and 1, owners), including about 1, in Vancouver. We anticipate a similar level of household formations over the short- to medium-term, with lower net interprovincial migration offset by increased immigration. To meet underlying demographic requirements, housing starts (rental plus ownership) likely need to average around 3, annually. The sustainable level of housing starts typically exceeds household formations due to demolitions, second-home purchases and foreign buying activity, all of which effectively remove a housing unit from the existing stock available for new resident buyers (chart 1). By comparison, completions last year hit a nine-year high of 31,9, including,79 intended for homeownership, 7,3 purpose-built rentals, and 1,7 condominiums. Completions are expected to rise again in 1 19. These estimates from CMHC s Chart 7 13 1 11 1 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Chart 3 1 Chart 9 3 3 1 1 Affordability Pressures Spread avg. bedroom rent, purpose-built units, index, 1 = 1 Toronto Abbotsford- Mission Vancouver Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CMHC. Vancouver Units Under Construction s Row and apartment Singles and semis Canada Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CMHC. Vancouver Unsold Inventory units per 1, population, end of period long-term average 9 9 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC.
April 9, 1 Starts and Completions Survey include modular units with a permanent foundation and severed laneway homes, but exclude conversions/alterations within existing structures as well as seasonal dwellings. The elevated level of completions expected this year and next would appear to be sufficient to meet the new demographic demand emerging each year, but they are not enough to substantively improve current tight supply conditions in the rental and new home markets. An even higher level of completions is needed in the short- to medium-run to move housing supply and rental vacancy rates back toward more balanced conditions, with the majority of the new units being either purpose-built rentals or investor-leased condominiums. It is also critical to target the right mix of dwellings, including more affordable housing options, and more dwellings suitable for families. Much of the recent pickup in construction activity, including purpose-built rentals and condominiums, has been geared to the upper end of the market. An Evolving Housing Policy Framework BC s new NDP government introduced its 3-point Homes for B.C. plan as a focal point of its first full Budget in February (here). The Plan aims to better align the functioning of its housing markets with BC families need for an affordable primary residence. The Plan s funding is primarily directed to boosting housing supply, particularly across low- to mid-price points, with CAD. bn to leverage the construction of 11, affordable units over the next decade. The Plan retains some of the prior administration s measures, discards others and builds on its own initiatives introduced since August 17. FUNDING IS TIGHT The Province is aiming to sustain balanced books while delivering on its election promise to make life more affordable for its residents. Dominating multiple measures are the two priorities of raising the availability and affordability of housing and child care. Despite the urgent shelter needs of low- and middle-income individuals, Budget 1 indicates only 31% of its 1-year investment in housing supply will occur from FY1 to FY1. Moreover, the housing Plan depends upon expanding partnerships with federal and municipal governments, non-profit entities, social impact and institutional investors and the private sector. This approach capitalizes on BC s existing relationships with non-profits and their patient, longer-term capital, and the sizeable federal funding available under Canada s National Housing Strategy, 17. However, expeditiously establishing alliances and jointly completing projects with partners will be challenging. Revenues from some program adjustments will be directly reinvested in housing. For example, the proposed HousingHub to facilitate new partnerships and affordable housing initiatives will use funds released from ending, as of March 1, the BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity (HOME) Partnership. Allowed uses for the Municipal and Regional District Tax (MRDT), collected by municipalities, regional districts and eligible entities such as tourism non-profits, will be expanded to include affordable housing initiatives. The MRDT up to 3.% and the.% Provincial Sales Tax will be collected on short-term rentals by online accommodation platforms, beginning with Airbnb. The Property Transfer Tax (PTT) and the provincial school tax will become more progressive. On the portion of a residential property value over CAD 3. mn, the general PTT rate climbed from 3% to % on February 1. As of 19, the provincial school property tax will be an additional.% on residential assessed values between CAD 3 and mn, and an extra.% on assessed values exceeding CAD mn. PRIORITIZING HOUSING FOR PRIMARY RESIDENCES FOR BC FAMILIES Chart 1 To help stabilize housing prices and reduce speculation, the foreign buyers tax was raised from 1% to % on February 1 st and expanded to include the Regional Districts of Nanaimo, the Capital, Fraser Valley and Central Okanagan (Kelowna). For roughly the same geographic area, to discourage non-resident and domestic speculation and reduce vacant units in high-priced CMAs, a new annual property tax, labelled a Speculation Tax, is planned as of 1. It will apply to residential units that are not British Columbians primary residence, or are not long-term rentals. The rate, from.% on all property values in 1, will rise to.% 3 1 BC Household Starts and Household Formation annual average, s Household Formation Housing Starts 71-7 1-91-9 1-11-1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC.
April 9, 1 as of 19 for foreign investors and satellite families. For Canadian citizens or permanent residents, the rate will be 1.% for non- BC residents and.% for BC residents, with tax credits for declared BC income or if a BC resident s property is a second home. In the City of Vancouver, the Province s Speculation Tax will supplement the Empty Homes Tax applied by the City to units vacant for more than six months of the prior year. In the first year of Vancouver s Tax, more than,3 residential properties were declared vacant in 17 by their owners, though some owners have requested exemptions. An additional,1 homes, with no declaration received from their owners, will be subject to the tax, assessed at 1.% of a home's value. Further efforts to achieve transparent real estate markets and curtail fraud and tax evasion include closer tracking of beneficial ownership, stronger provincial tax auditing and enforcement, and a fuller sharing of income tax, homeownership grant and property assessment data with the federal government. Pre-sale flipping, notably in condominium developments, will be curtailed by requiring developers to collect and report comprehensive Purchase and Sale Agreements. The dampening effects of the Plan s tax measures on housing demand and turnover is likely to be more evident for higher-priced units where y/y price increases moderated over the past year relative to lower-priced row and apartment units. LOWERING MARKET RENTAL COSTS To spur construction of purpose-built rental units at price points for middle- and modest-income households, rental projects qualifying for municipal revitalization property tax exemptions also will be exempt from provincial property tax as of 19. BC is approaching Ottawa to develop other tools to trim cost barriers for moderate-priced purpose-built rentals. Other measures include allowing strata corporations to impose higher penalties on unit owners offering short-term rentals that disrupt the condominium development for other families. To support renters, BC is exploring a measure for market renters equivalent to the existing Homeowner Grant that provides a partial rebate for property taxes. In addition to greater protection for displaced renters and owners of manufactured homes, the Residential Tenancy Branch will receive increased funding to improve renter/landlord services and more timely dispute resolution. Rental assistance programs for lower-income Seniors and families renting in the private market will be enhanced this September, with expanded eligibility for families. In the wings is the federal government s proposed Canada Housing Benefit that will assist social housing applicants or tenants or low-income households in the private housing market. This Benefit is to be delivered by each Province by, but the more effective path is expediting greater supplies of lower-cost market rental units. Acknowledging the urgency of unmet housing needs, BC proposes several measures to increase near-term, moderate-priced supply. To release existing housing units that post-secondary students are currently renting, provincial funding of CAD mn will provide loans or grants for, additional student housing beds and another 3, beds are anticipated through institutional selffinancing or other partnerships. Over the next two years, the Province will allocate CAD 7 mn to help address cost pressures on existing housing projects to ensure the affordability of the completed units. BC is providing CAD 1.1 bn over ten years for social housing refits, with federal cost sharing for social housing maintenance and repair available through Phase 1 of the federal infrastructure plan. BOLSTERING AFFORDABLE RENTAL UNITS For its ambitious target of 11, additional affordable units, the NDP lost no time setting aside CAD mn in its September 17 Update to build over 1,7 affordable rental units, with the rental income pragmatically covering operating costs and some resident assistance. The February Budget for the next three years outlines CAD mn for mixed-income social housing projects, with further funds allocated for specific shelter needs such as new homes for Indigenous peoples. Core housing need assessments and other metrics consistently indicate BC s issues of inadequate housing for lower-income individuals or other vulnerable segments of the population to be among the most acute across the provinces (chart 11). The improvement reported for BC in the 1 Census has likely been reversed by the intensifying pressure on urban housing supplies in the last few years, and reducing this cumulative shortage is undeniably an extended process. An innovative proposal last September was CAD.3 bn for, modular units for the homeless which can be quickly installed and relocated if necessary. The /7 social and staff support service critical for social housing will be provided by non-profit organizations with an initial three-year CAD. bn budget.
April 9, 1 The success of Homes for B.C. depends upon proactive municipal government action. But the first step for many communities will be provincially funded housing need assessments over the next three years. Building municipal capacity to address local housing needs and opportunities also is planned, suggesting considerable delays before new tools such as rental zoning are developed and plans implemented for increased density and affordable housing around transit hubs. Streamlining current development approval timelines and costs could offer substantial benefits. As BC moves forward with its capital plans, the integration of affordable housing into the infrastructure planning process could be advantageous. Chart 11 ON BC SK NS Rate of Core Housing Need by Province 1 11 A CHALLENGING OUTLOOK AB The experience of other global cities underlines the depth of effort and extended time periods necessary to achieve progress in rebalancing housing markets. In addition, British Columbia has several unique challenges, such as Vancouver s land-locked position and the need to protect its limited arable land, as the review of the Agricultural Land Reserve indicates. Adjustments to the government s Homes for B.C. are inevitable as gaps emerge, such as the need for greater ownership housing for moderate-income residents. BC s stepped-up funding and its multi-faceted plan are encouraging; and progress in beginning to address the multiple shortfalls in BC s housing supply is anticipated. Over the next few years, our expectation of continuing substantial price appreciation, particularly for moderate- and modest-priced homes could well spur greater urgency and corrective action, particularly in cross-government collaboration, a potentially necessary outcome. MB NL QC NB PE % of households in core housing need* in private-sector housing 1 1 1 1 Evaluated on the basis of affordability, adequacy and suitability conditions (see CMHC, here). Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada, CMHC. 7
April 9, 1 CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKETS 3 s of units, a.r., 3MMA New Home Construction y/y % change s of units New Home Inventory 1 1 1 Row & apartment Singles & semis 1 1 Housing starts (LHS) New housing price index (RHS) - 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CMHC, Statistics Canada. -1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CMHC. Existing Home Sales $, s s of units, a.r. 1 ratio of sales to new listings Existing Home Inventory Unit sales (RHS) 3 Average price (LHS) 3 Roughly balanced market 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA Housing Starts Canada B.C. Alberta Sask. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic (s units, sa) 11 19 7 13 1 1 7 33 1 7 77 7 13 13 1 7 3 7 1 3 1 1 19 1 9 39 1 19 31 37 7 3 1 19 7 39 17 9 79 9 1ytd 39 9 7 1f 9 7 1 19f 19 3 3 71 3 (units, nsa) Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Ottaw a Montreal Halifax St. John s 11 17,7 9,9 9,33 39,7,79,719,9 1,93 1 19,7 1,1 1,37,1,,91,7,13 13 1,9 1, 1,9 33,7, 1,3,39 1,73 1 19,1 17,131 13,7,99,7 1,7 1,77 1,3 1,3 13,33 17,,7,97 1,7,99 9 1 7,91 9, 1,3 39,7,9 17,3,3 33 17, 11,3 11,3 3,73 7,7,7,7 73 1ytd,79,1 1,1,1, 19,,3 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CMHC. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
April 9, 1 CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKETS 1 1 % Residential Mortgage Rates 7 Household Mortgage Debt Service % of disposable income Interest and principal -Year conventional Interest only Prime 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. 1 1 y/y % change Residential Mortgage Credit Residential mortgages.7... Residential Mortgage Arrears % of mortgages in arrears three or more months Mortgage arrears.3. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada..1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CBA. Home Sales Canada British Columbia Alberta Man.-Sask. Ontario Quebec Atlantic Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units 11 3,37 1,317 1,71 7,77 3,333,9 9,17, 3,313 1,9 1,13 77,1 1,13 3,17 1 3,3,3 1,9 7,3 3,,197,37 7,7 3, 197,7,7 77,37 9, 3, 13 33,31,37 37, 7,93 33,1 7,31 77,,7 3,399 19,11, 71,19 1,33 1, 1,1,3,391,,33 7,7,939 7,7 31,1,1 7,91 7, 9,7,93 1,7 1, 3,7 1,1 39,7 9,9,3,,,1 71,791 7,11,,1 1 9,39,73 91,111 11,11 39,1,79 7,7,9 3,77,3 79,3 7,1,1 3,91 17 1, 1,1 79,3 13,77 39,13 7,1 9,1,7,1 1,91 9,,7 11,9, 1ytd,7 3,71 71,7 9, 39, 7,7 9,19,97 9,33 11, 3, 1, 17,9,7 Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Ottaw a Montreal Halifax Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units 11 779,73 3,93,1, 333, 17,91,3 91,7 3,9 1,9 3, 1,7 1,1, 1 73,3, 1,31,3 3,99 19,1 9,973,17 3,199 1,9 31,3 1,91 7,,19 13 77,7,9 37,3 9,9 3,99,,9,9 3,9 1,13 319, 37,7 7,7,17 1 1,3 33,93, 33,1 37,91,93,91 93,7 3, 1,1 3,39 3,917 7,71,11 1 9,1 3,1 3,1 3,99 379,1,7, 11, 3,1 1,9 33,9 39,1,17,9 1 1,17,, 3,7, 37,73 19,3 79,91 113,7 37,9 1,1 3,9 1,39 9,91,3 17 1,31, 3,,9 3,9 3, 19, 3,7 93,1 39,311 17,311 3,1, 9,1,1 1ytd 1,7,9 3,1 9,,7 377,77,3 77,3 7,,93 1, 3,13, 39,,1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA, QFREB. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. 9
April 9, 1 US RESIDENTIAL MARKETS Housing Starts. mns of units, a.r., 3MMA. Total 1. 1. Single-Unit. Multiple-Unit.. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau. Housing Starts by Region 1. mns of units, a.r., 3MMA 1. South.. West... Midwest Northeast Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau. 1. 1. 1. 1.... mns of units, a.r., 3MMA New Home Sales Average price (RHS) Unit sales (LHS) $, s, 3MMA. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau. 3 3 1 1 7 3 mns of units, a.r., 3MMA Existing Home Sales Average price (RHS) Unit sales (LHS) $, s,3mma 3 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, National Association of Realtors (NAR). Housing Starts Permits Total Singles Multis West South Midw est Northeast Total Singles Multis (millions of units) (millions of units) 11.9.31.17.133.3.11...1. 1.71.3..17.39.1..3.19.311 13.9.1.37.1..1.97.991.1.37 1 1.3..3.3.9.13.11 1...1 1 1.11.71.397...13.13 1.13.9.7 1 1.17.7.39.91..1.11 1.7.71. 17 1.3.9.3.313.99.179.11 1..17.7 1ytd 1.3.9.393.3..1.111 1.33.7.3 1f 1. 19f 1.3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates. 1
April 9, 1 US RESIDENTIAL MARKETS 9 7 % Mortgage Rates and Applications 3-year mortgage rate (LHS) MBA mortgage application index purchases only (RHS) index 3 Housing Costs Consumer Price Index, y/y % change Owners' equivalent rent Rent of primary residence 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), FHLMC. 1 - Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 1 1 New and Existing Home Inventories months' supply, 3MMA New Existing Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors (NAR). Apartment Vacancy Rates 1 % 1 South 1 1 Midwest Northeast West Sources: Scotiabank Economics, US Census Bureau. Existing Home Sales New Home Sales Total Avg Months North Avg Price Months West South Midw est Total Price Supply East ($s) Supply (sa) (nsa) (nsa) (million units, saar, unless otherwise noted) 11. 1..3 1.13 1..91..3 3.. 1...9 1.1 1. 1.7.9.3.. 13.9..9 1.19. 1...3 319.3.7 1.9.3. 1.1. 1.1.. 31.. 1... 1.17.1 1..7.3 3.. 1. 7.. 1.19. 1.3.7.1 39.3. 17.1 9. 3.9 1.. 1.3.7.17 377.. 1ytd. 1.9 3. 1..33 1.3.. 37.9.9 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, National Association of Realtors (NAR), US Census Bureau. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates. 11
April 9, 1 INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETS International House Prices (Inflation-adjusted, y/y % change) 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 17Q1 17Q 17Q3 17Q Australia.. -.3 -.1.1. 7.. --- 7.9.1. --- Canada -3...9. 1. 3..9 11. 1. 1. 1. 9.9 7. France -.3 3. 3. -. -.7 -.1-1..9 --- 1.. 3. --- Germany -.7 -.. 1. 1.7..3. --- 3.7 3.. --- Ireland -1. -1. -19. -1.9.7 1.3 11. 7. ---. 1.3 11. --- Italy -1.3 -.9 -. -.7 -.9 -. -. -.7 --- -1. -1.7-1.9 --- Japan ---..3 -. 1.3-1. 1..3 --- 3. 1. 1.9 --- Spain -.3-3. -1. -1. -1...1. ---. 3..9 --- Sw eden 3.. -..3. 9. 13. 7. ---.1.7. --- Sw itzerland..... 1. 3.1 1.. 1. 1..3. United Kingdom -1..3 -.7 -.3...9.3 ---. 1.7. --- United States -9. -. -.7..3.7..1 --- 3... --- Russia -1.9 1.3-7. 9. -.7 -. -1.3-11. --- -. -7. -.7 --- Brazil 19. 19. 11..1.. -. -1.3 --- -. -. -. --- Chile 1....1.1 1..7-1. ---. -. --- --- Colombia.9..3 7.1 7....1 ---.9.7 3.7 --- Mexico.1 -.3..7.. 3..1 ---..7-3.3 --- Peru 1. 9.3 13. 17. 13.7 9... --- -7. -.7 -. --- China 1.9. -1. -3. 3.. -.. --- 9..3. --- India ---. 11.3 1. 7. 7..3 1. ---... --- Indonesia -.7 -. -.7..3. -. -. --- -1. -1.1 -. --- South Korea -. -. 1..7-1.7.. 1.7 -. -. -.7 -. -. Thailand.1 -...3. 3. 3. 1. -. -1. -3. -. 3.1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank for International Settlements 3 3 Real house prices, 199=1 UK Sweden 3 3 Real house prices, 199=1 Australia 1 1 1 Switzerland 1 Canada United States 9 9 1 1 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BIS, OECD. 9 9 1 1 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BIS, OECD. 3 3 1 1 Real house prices, 199=1 Ireland France Spain 9 9 1 1 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BIS, OECD. 3 3 1 1 Real house prices, 199=1 Germany Italy Japan 9 9 1 1 1 1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BIS, OECD. 1
April 9, 1 This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 3.3 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a call to action or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations. Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment. This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank. Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with Global Banking and Markets, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including, Scotiabanc Inc.; Citadel Hill Advisors L.L.C.; The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company of New York; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Limited; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorised by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorised by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., and Scotia Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities. Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.