Key Findings: Market Analysis Prepared by: WTL+a Washington, DC On behalf of: HDR, Inc. &
Why a Market Study? Evaluate factors affecting demand for new development Analyze market drivers for new investment Measure market potentials for various land uses: Office Multi-family Lodging Retail Guide whether market will support transit-supportive densities/intensities Identify possible locations with strongest potential to accommodate mixed-use activity centers 2
Key Tasks Project initiation Study area market reconnaissance Stakeholder interviews Prepare demographic/economic profile Evaluate real estate market conditions Measure market/development potentials Present market findings to PC/MPO (today) Identify market-based priority nodes/areas Consider market findings for direction on planning/land use regulatory changes Prepare technical report 3
Market Characteristics Today 13,948 acres 77,400 residents in 30,700 HHs Population increased by 19,000 past 15 years Comprises 6% share of County; steady since 2000 Average HH incomes: $70,400 same as County 4
Market Characteristics Next 5 Years Forecast: 3,500 new residents, 1,400 new HHs (2020) Annual growth rate expected to slow Fastest-growing age cohorts: Children (0-14) 1 st time buyers (25-34) Empty nesters (55+) & retirees 5
Household Spending $18,600/year parallels County spending Annual buying power : $819 million Annual store sales: $2.1 billion Yields annual in-flow: $1.25 billion Illustrates strength of Brandon as regional retail destination Leakage/Surplus Factor by Industry Group Automobile Dealers Other Motor Vehicle Dealers Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Building Material and Supplies Dealers Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores Grocery Stores Specialty Food Stores Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores Book, Periodical, and Music Stores Department Stores (Excluding Leased Depts.) Other General Merchandise Stores Florists Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores Used Merchandise Stores Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses Vending Machine Operators Direct Selling Establishments Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Eating Places Special Food Services Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) -60-40 -20 0 20 40 Leakage/Surplus Factor 60 80 100 6
Economic Profile 36,900 jobs 5.7% share of County Retail: 16,700 (45%) Health Care: 5,900 (13%) Other Services: 8,700 (24%) Jobs-to-population ratio:.46, parallels County If study area maintains its fair share = 5,100 new jobs (2015-2023) 7
Market Conditions: Housing 33,300 housing units 50% owner-occupied 42% renter-occupied 8% unoccupied Median value: $197,600 Typical suburban development patterns: SFD: 51% TH: 8% 3 9 units: 31% 50+ units: 2% True vacancy: 5.9% 8
Market Conditions: Housing Healthy rental market Profiled 5,600 units 4% to 6% vacancy stabilized occupancies Average rent: $1,050/month 900 new housing starts past 5 years Change: 2011-2015 Through Q2 Total Annual % of Unit Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Starts Average Total Single-family Attached 63 54 38 78 18 251 50 28% Single-family Detached 6 14 110 177 96 403 81 45% Multi-family - 8-160 72 240 48 27% Other (Accessory, Mobile Home) 1 1 1 - - 3 0.6 0.3% Total-Study Area: 70 77 149 415 186 897 179 As % of Hillsborough County 2% 1% 2% 6% 2% 2.6% Source: Hillsborough County Planning Commission; HDR, Inc.; WTL+a, March 2016. 9
Market Conditions: Lodging 2,100 rooms in 20 properties located adjacent to study area 9.7% of County s supply 93% limited-service Only 1 full-service property (Embassy Suites) Significant improvement in market performance since 2010 10
Market Conditions: Lodging Jan YTD CHANGE: 2010-2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average CAGR Performance Characteristics (1) Number of Rooms 2,059 2,055 2,057 2,057 2,056 2,056 Available Room Nights (Supply) 751,535 750,555 751,048 750,805 751,703 750,440 751,014-0.03% Occupied Room Nights (Demand) 435,807 467,266 473,410 502,162 545,035 587,091 501,795 6.1% Annual Occupancy (%) 58.0% 62.3% 63.0% 66.9% 72.5% 78.2% 68.3% 66.8% 6.2% Average Daily Rate $ 75.49 $ 78.78 $ 86.37 $ 83.30 $ 89.20 $ 95.55 $ 108.43 $ 85.41 4.8% (2) Revenue Per Available Room $ 43.77 $ 49.04 $ 54.44 $ 55.72 $ 64.67 $ 74.75 $ 85.77 $ 57.06 11.3% Year-to-Year % Growth Annual Occupancy - 7.4% 1.2% 6.1% 8.4% 7.9% (12.7%) Average Daily Rate - 4.4% 9.6% (3.5%) 7.1% 7.1% 13.5% Revenue/Available Room - 12.0% 11.0% 2.3% 16.1% 15.6% 14.7% 11
Market Conditions: Office Study area located in East Tampa submarket 9.9 million SF in 750 buildings 19% of County s 61.7 million SF 358,000 SF delivered in 2015 10% vacancy rate 2015 absorption: 449,000 SF (28% of entire County); impact of USAA 12
Market Conditions: Office 2.5 million SF in 414 buildings Class B/ garden product 26% of East Tampa submarket 511,000 SF of new deliveries since 2006 Vacancy rates vary: 2006: 7% 2009: 16% 2015: 10% Average annual absorption: 41,275 SF 13
Market Conditions: Retail Study area located in East Tampa submarket 13 million SF in 980 centers/buildings 22% of County s 59.3 million SF 155,000 SF delivered in 2015 3.7% vacancy full occupancy 2015 absorption: 169,000 SF (7% of County) 14
Market Conditions: Retail 9.3 million SF in 450 centers/buildings 72% of East Tampa submarket 919,000+ SF of new deliveries since 2006 Vacancies peaked at 8% (2009), declined to 3% full occupancy Average annual absorption: 79,500 SF since 2006 15
Market Potentials: Housing Forecasts Average 2025 Population Household Housing 2015 2025 Change Size (2) Units Scenario 1: Straight-line Trend (1) Historic Annual Growth Rate (2000-2015) 1.89% Current & Future Population 77,412 93,387 15,975 2.51 6,365 Allocation to Known Residential Projects Winthrop (Entitled MF Units) 450 Subtotal - Allocated Units: 450 Scenario #1 - Unallocated Units: 5,915 Scenario 2: ESRI Forecast (3) Forecast Annual Growth Rate (2015-2020) 0.88% Current & Future Population 77,412 84,518 7,106 2.51 2,831 Allocation to Known Residential Projects Winthrop (Entitled MF Units) 450 Subtotal - Allocated Units: 450 Scenario #2 - Unallocated Units: 2,381 Historic Annual Housing Starts (2011-2015) (Table 17) 179 Years Required to Absorb Allocated Units: 2.5 Years Required to Absorb Unallocated Units: 13 (1) Scenario #1 assumes that the Brandon study area continues to grow at the same pace it did between 2000 and 2015. (2) In order to convert 2025 population growth into housing units, the analysis assumes that average household size remains the same in 2025 as it was in 2015 (2.51 persons per household). (3) Scenario #2 utilizes ESRI's 2015-2020 population growth forecasts (Table 4) and applies them through 2025. It also assumes no change in average household size. Source: U.S. Census; ESRI Business Analyst; WTL+a, March 2016. 16
Market Potentials: Office New Jobs % Office- SF Occupancy 2023 Demand Industry Sector 2015-2023 Using Factor (In SF) Hillsborough County Agriculture/Mining & Construction 9,048 10% 175 158,300 Manufacturing 354 20% 200 14,200 Transp/Communications/Utilities 1,015 40% 200 81,200 Wholesale & Retail Trade 8,778 20% 175 307,200 Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 6,730 85% 275 1,573,100 Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 11,695 90% 250 2,631,400 Management of Companies & Enterprises 876 60% 250 131,400 Administrative & Waste Management 10,129 35% 175 620,400 Educational Services 2,719 20% 225 122,400 Health Care & Social Assistance 15,469 35% 200 1,082,800 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1,591 20% 175 55,700 Accommodation & Food Services 7,272 20% 175 254,500 Other Services (Except Government) 2,432 35% 225 191,500 Government 6,907 60% 150 621,600 Self-Employed 3,463 10% 200 69,300 Total/Weighted Average: 88,331 41% 200 7,915,000 + Vacancy Adjustment @ 5% (1) 395,800 + Cumulative Replacement Demand 7.5% (2) 593,600 2023 Gross Demand - Hillsborough County: 8,904,400 Existing Vacant Office Space (Table 23) 6,134,556 Less Lease-up Required @ 35% (2,147,095) (3) (2,147,095) Remaining Vacant Space: 3,987,461 % Vacant 6.5% 2023 Net Demand - Hillsborough County: 6,757,300 17
Market Potentials: Office Brandon Study Area Total Employment (Table 11) (4) 36,896 As % of Hillsborough County 5.72% Fair Share Analysis 2015-2023 Employment Growth (If Fair Share Maintained) 5,056 % Office-using Jobs 41% SF Occupancy Factor 200 2023 Gross Demand (In SF): 418,700 Less Lease-up of 50% of Existing Vacant Space (Table 24) (129,250) 2023 NET DEMAND (In SF): 289,450 (1) This allows for a 5% "frictional" vacancy rate in new office space delivered to the market (i.e., this accounts for tenant movement to new space). (2) This represents new space required by existing businesses to replace obsolete or otherwise unusable office space. This is assumed to represent 7.5% of total demand. (3) From a financing perspective, some portion of existing vacant office space in Hillsborough County will need to be leased before financing of new construction is viable. The analysis assumes that 35% of existing vacant office space is leased, thereby reducing the overall vacancy rate to approximately 6.5% (i.e., stabilized levels). (4) This reflects current employment in the Brandon study area (see Table 11). The analysis assumes that the study area maintains its "fair share" of Hillsborough County's total employment base in the future. Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity; CoStar, Inc.; WTL +a, March 2016. 18
Market Directions: Retail Multiple small/aging properties could be available for redevelopment Limited opportunities for new grocery-anchored strip centers Recognize large-format store vacancies (Albertsons, Wal- Mart neighborhood stores, Sports Authority, etc.) Determine preliminary market criteria for potential site assemblies Prioritize food & beverage as commercial anchor for new, walkable dining districts (e.g., Westfield Brandon) Study area retail offerings can accommodate local retailers & national credit tenants 19
Market Directions: Lodging Sustained & stable market performance suggests one new hotel (90-120 rooms, limited service or boutique) Location: I-75 corridor or within mixed-use concept New hotel product types consistent with evolving Brandon market (e.g., Aloft, Hyatt Place, etc.) Understand depth of visitor/tourist & business market segments Opportunity may exist for extended-stay/ medical hotel concept near Brandon Regional Hospital 20
Profile: Winthrop Town Centre 148-acre site acquired in 2000 Uses built in phases over 15 years Walk scores Brandon: 15 Winthrop: 64 SF residential parcel sold in 2006 to Taylor Morrison Entitled: 330 units Completed: 250 units 167,000 SF of commercial uses 54,000 SF Publix 18,000 SF medical office Entitled for 450 MF units 21
Q & A 22