-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Today's Market $180,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 15% 10% $100,000 5% $80,000 0% $60,000 $40,000 $20,000-5% -10% $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2017 ) $142,200 $230,700 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2017 ) 5.0% 6.9% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2017 ) 11.1% 20.8% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $14,200 $39,700 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $15,200 $64,333 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $19,300 $32,167 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Local Trend Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $424,100 FHA Loan Limit $275,665 Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 34% Note: limits are current and include the changes made in December 2016. $636,150 $636,150 not comparable Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2017 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Leslie Rouda Smith.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $40,000 $30,000 $30,422 $20,000 $10,000 $9,069 $0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Total Equity Gained** through 2017 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $9,069 $18,582 3-year (12-quarter)* $20,260 $48,743 5-year (20-quarter)* $30,382 $83,996 Price appreciation and principle payments 7-year (28 quarters)* $29,214 $76,553 in the last 3 years have boosted total equity 9-year (36 quarters)* If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $35,632 $69,984 $46,748 $45,884 growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Apr) 12-month Job Change (Mar) 36-month Job Change (Apr) Current Unemployment Rate (Apr) -800-1,100 800 7.4% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 4.4% Job losses are a problem and will weigh on demand, but layoffs are declining, a trend that could help buyer confidence 's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on confidence Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 6.2% -0.5% 5.0% 1.6% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Natural Resourc 11.3% 18.4 Natural R5.2% #N/A #N/A Natural #N/A #N/A Resources/M #N/A #N/A ining/constru #N/A #N/A Government Government ct Other 15.4% Manufacturing 15.5% 13.2% 21.5 11.3% Manufac Services 8.4% 3.9% Trade/Transporta 18.8% 30.7 Trade/Tr 18.6% Other Manufacturin Leisure & Information Services 0.7% 1.2 g Hospitality Informa1.9% 4.9% Leisure & 13.2% 11.0% Financial Hospitality Activ 3.4% 5.5 Financia5.7% Prof. & 9.7% Busine 8.9% 14.5 Professi14.1% Service Providing Excluding Government Share of Total Employment by Industry Educ. & Healt 13.7% 22.4 Trade/Transp Educatio15.8% Leisure & Hos Educ. & 9.7% 15.9 ortation/utilit Educational Leisure 11.0% Other Services Health ies & Health 4.9% 8 Other S 3.9% Information Services Prof. & 18.8% Services Information 1.9% Government13.7% 15.5% Business 25.3 88.7% Governm15.4% 15.8% 0.7% Professional Financial 100.0% Services Financial & Business Activities #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 8.9% Activities Services 5.7% #N/A #N/A 3.4% #N/A #N/A 14.1% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Mar - 2017) Goods Producing NA Information -100 Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing 500 NA NA -700 Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality -100-200 -300 0 NA Other Services Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 5.2% Manufacturi ng 8.4% 1,400 Trade/Trans portation/uti lities 18.6% Trade/Transportation/Utilities -1,700 Government 100 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2017 - Apr) 36-month change (2017 - Apr) 3.1% 10.5% 3.0% 9.9% Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's 3.15% change
Local Fundamentals New Housing Construction 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Apr 2017 416 not comparable The current level of construction is 31.5% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 607 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Apr 2017) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -20.0% 8.4% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability 30% Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2016 Ratio for 2017 7.0% 7.3% 15.2% 15.6% Historically strong and an improvement over the fourth quarter of 2016 Historical Average 9.3% 19.2% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2016 1.3 Ratio for 2017 1.2 Historical Average 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1998 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2017 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) The first quarter was marked by rising mortgage rates. Short- and long- term interest rates continued to increase after November s elections. The Fed raised the federal fund in March, bringing the target from 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent while Freddie Mac published that the average interest rate on a 30-year conventional home loan was 4.2 percent in 2017 from 3.8 percent in 2016. Intermediate-term yields also increased during the quarter, with the 10-year Treasury closing at 2.4 percent. Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its actions can affect the housing market. Mortgage rates tend to move with the government s 10-year Treasury note, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates. However, homebuyers should bear in mind that mortgage rates still hover in the historically low range. Homebuyers have excellent purchasing power at these mortgage rates, and while it may make sense for fewer households to refinance, there are still some households that can save cash with a refinance. Looking ahead, despite the recent decline in April, interest rates are likely to head higher in 2017. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average 4.3 percent for 2017.
REALTOR Price Expectations 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2017 - Apr Prior 12 months 3.8% 3.7% 4.2% 3.8% REALTORS expect weaker price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months although their local expectations are higher than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, Newton County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, Third Quarter 2016 Today's Market $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2016 ) $145,200 $239,133 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 4.8% 5.2% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 4.3% 15.6% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $6,000 $32,267 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $11,600 $60,900 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $16,100 $17,967 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Local Trend Prices continue to grow relative to last year Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access to FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 35% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $40,000 $30,000 $33,492 $20,000 $10,000 $8,941 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total Equity Gained** through 2016 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $8,941 $15,479 3-year (12-quarter)* $12,504 $41,932 5-year (20-quarter)* $26,543 $82,243 Price appreciation and principle payments 7-year (28 quarters)* $26,012 $73,900 in the last 3 years have boosted total equity 9-year (36 quarters)* If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $31,774 $59,696 $34,098 $28,103 growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Sep) 12-month Job Change (Aug) 36-month Job Change (Sep) Current Unemployment Rate (Sep) 1,300 1,400 8,500 7.2% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 5.0% Employment growth has eased, but remains positive 's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on confidence Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 6.7% 0.8% 5.1% 1.8% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Natural Resourc 11.5% 19.3 Natural R5.2% #N/A #N/A Natural #N/A #N/A Resources/M #N/A Government #N/A ining/constru #N/A #N/A Government 14.2% ct Other 15.5% Manufacturing 13.4% 22.5 11.5% Manufac Services 8.4% Other 3.9% Trade/Transporta Services 20.1% 33.7 Trade/Tr 18.8% Manufacturin Leisure & 4.4% Information 0.8% 1.4 g Hospitality Leisure & Informa1.9% 13.4% 10.6% Financial Hospitality Activ 3.5% 5.8 Financia5.7% 9.4% Prof. & Busine 8.9% 14.9 Professi14.1% Educ. & Healt 13.6% 22.8 Educatio15.8% Educ. & Trade/Transp Educational Leisure & Hos Health 9.4% 15.8 ortation/utilit Leisure & Health 10.6% Other Services Services 4.4% Prof. & 7.3 ies Other S 3.9% Information Services 13.6% Business 20.1% Government 14.2% 23.8 Financial 0.8% 15.8% 88.5% Governm15.5% Professional 100.0% Services #N/A #N/A Activities & Business 8.9% #N/A #N/A 3.5% Services #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 14.1% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Sep - 2016) Goods Producing NA Information Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing 900 NA NA -800 Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Service Providing Excluding Government Share of Total Employment by Industry NA Other Services Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 5.2% Manufacturi ng 8.4% -100-200 400 300 400 400 Trade/Trans portation/uti lities 18.8% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 5.7% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 500 Government -500 State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2016 - Sep) 36-month change (2016 - Sep) Texas 2.6% 12.0% 2.9% 10.0% The economy of Texas is growing more slowly than the rest of the nation, but improved modestly from last month's 2.52% change
Local Fundamentals New Housing Construction 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Sep 2016 479 not comparable The current level of construction is 21.4% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 610 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -19.4% 9.5% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability 30% Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2015 Ratio for 2016 7.2% 7.2% 15.6% 15.5% Historically strong and an improvement over the second quarter of 2016 Historical Average 9.5% 19.5% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2015 1.3 Ratio for 2016 1.3 Historical Average 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 The price-to-income ratio rose, but is better than the historic average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 5.0% 240 200 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 160 120 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 80 40 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0% 2016 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) The third quarter of 2016 was marked by low mortgage rates. Presidential elections introduced uncertainty in the equity and bond markets which, as a rule, markets don t like. Furthermore, forecasts for production and inflation remained low, helping to keep rates contained in a narrow band, hovering between 3.44% and 3.46% for the period between July and September. For the entire quarter, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.6 percent in the second quarter to 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.65 percent. What to expect about mortgage rates in the upcoming quarters? It seems that mortgage rates will move up but they will not change significantly while China s growth is still slow, Japan s woes continue, and the Eurozone continues to stagger along. However, the Fed is coming closer to reaching its dual mandate which could in turn result in rate hikes in the near future. Furthermore, the President- Elect s policies include increased infrastructure spending, tariffs, and immigration reform all of which could drive inflationary pressures over the longer term. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average just 4.1 percent for 2017.
REALTOR Price Expectations 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2016 - Sep 3.1% 3.0% Prior 12 months 3.8% 3.2% REALTORS expect higher price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, Newton County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, Second Quarter 2016 Today's Market $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-15% *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Local Price Trends Local Trend Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2016 ) $143,500 $239,167 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 2.1% 4.9% Prices continue to grow relative to last year 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 5.3% 17.8% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $7,200 $36,200 Gains in the last 3 years have extended the 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $4,900 $64,800 trend of positive price growth after the 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $15,800 $15,400 recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access to FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 34% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $40,000 $34,069 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $5,319 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total Equity Gained** through 2016 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity 1-year (4-quarter) 3-year (12-quarter)* $5,319 $14,371 $14,963 $46,878 5-year (20-quarter)* $26,778 $82,353 7-year (28 quarters)* $20,122 $77,054 9-year (36 quarters)* $31,697 $31,126 If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $64,023 $34,380 Local Trend Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Jun) 12-month Job Change (May) 36-month Job Change (Jun) Current Unemployment Rate (Jun) 100 100 7,000 6.9% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 4.9% Employment growth has eased, but remains positive 's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on confidence Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 6.8% 0.1% 5.3% 1.9% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Educ. & Healt 13.6% 22.8 Educatio15.5% Educ. & Trade/Transp Educational Leisure & Hos Health 9.9% 16.6 ortation/utilit Leisure & Health 11.3% Other Services Services Prof. 4.2% & 7 ies Other Services S 4.0% Information 13.6% Business 20.2% 15.5% 1.9% Government 14.4% Financial 24.1 Information 88.9% Governm14.5% Professional 100.0% Financial Services #N/A #N/A Activities 0.9% & Business Activities 8.9% #N/A #N/A 3.5% Services 5.8% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 14.1% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Jun - 2016) Goods Producing NA Information 100 Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service Providing Excluding Government Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resourc 11.1% 18.6 Natural R5.3% Natural Resources/ #N/A #N/A Natural #N/A #N/A Mining/Con Resources/M struct #N/A Government #N/A ining/constru #N/A #N/A Government Other 5.3% 14.4% ct 14.5% Manufacturing 13.4% 22.5 Manufac Services 11.1% 8.6% 4.0% Trade/Transporta Other 20.2% 33.8 Trade/Tr 19.0% Manufacturin Leisure & Services Information 0.9% 1.5 g Hospitality 4.2% Informa1.9% Leisure & 13.4% 11.3% Financial Hospitality Activ 3.5% 5.8 Financia5.8% 9.9% Prof. & Busine 8.9% 14.9 Professi14.1% -1,000 NA NA -1,100 NA Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Manufacturi ng 8.6% -300 600 300 600 300 Trade/Trans portation/uti lities 19.0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1,000 Government -400 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2016 - Jun) 36-month change (2016 - Jun) 2.3% 12.2% 3.0% 10.2% Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.32% change and lags the rest of the nation
Local Fundamentals New Housing Construction 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2016 508 not comparable The current level of construction is 16.5% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 609 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -19.9% 10.6% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability 30% Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2015 Ratio for 2016 7.2% 7.2% 15.6% 15.8% Historically strong, but weaker than the first quarter of 2016 Historical Average 9.5% 19.5% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2015 1.3 Ratio for 2016 1.3 Historical Average 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 The price-to-income ratio rose, but is better than the historic average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 5.0% 240 200 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 160 120 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 80 40 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0% 2016 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) The second quarter of 2016 has been quite tumultuous with the surprising Brexit vote in the United Kingdom. While British citizens voted to leave the European Union last June, the full impact of the vote could take several years to be seen. In the near future, low mortgage rates and stronger refinancing are expected in the. Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.7 percent in the 1st quarter of 2016 to 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.75 percent which is the lowest rate after 2012. As a result of the current market conditions, existing homeowners benefit from low rates by refinancing their mortgages while home affordability is increasing for first-time homebuyers. Rates are likely to remain unchanged as global economies remain weak. The uncertainty in China, Japan, Russia and Eurozone is expected to boost safe-haven buying which benefits mortgage-backed securities market. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expected to average just 4.3 percent for 2016.
REALTOR Price Expectations 6.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2016 - Jul 3.9% 3.6% Prior 12 months 4.3% 3.4% REALTORS expect higher price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, Newton County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2016 Today's Market $160,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2016 ) $135,400 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 1.6% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 ) 6.5% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $8,300 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $6,300 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $19,600 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only $215,767 6.1% 22.6% $39,833 $48,200 $1,667 Local Trend Prices continue to grow relative to last year Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 32% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $30,000 $20,000 $20,108 $10,000 $4,337 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total Equity Gained** through 2016 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity 1-year (4-quarter) $4,337 $15,781 3-year (12-quarter)* $15,179 $49,356 5-year (20-quarter)* $21,449 $68,727 7-year (28 quarters)* $20,412 $59,758 9-year (36 quarters)* $34,299 $16,435 If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $61,205 $30,059 Local Trend Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Mar) 12-month Job Change (Feb) 36-month Job Change (Mar) Current Unemployment Rate (Mar) 700 100 6,100 6.4% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 5.0% Employment has held up and is on an upward trend 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 6.4% 0.4% 5.5% 2.0% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 11.1% 18.6 Natural Natural 5.0% #N/A #N/A Resources/ Mining/Con #N/A #N/A #N/A Governmen #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governmen t 11.1% Other t Manufacturing Other 14.8% 13.3% 22.3 Manufac8.5% Services 15.6% Services 3.9% Trade/Transpo 4.4% 20.0% 33.4 Manufacturi Trade/T 18.8% Leisure & Information 0.9% 1.5 ng Hospitality Leisure & Informa1.9% 13.3% 10.7% Financial Hospitality Act 3.6% 6 Financi 5.7% 9.6% Prof. & Busin 8.8% 14.8 Profess14.0% Educ. & Heal 13.6% 22.8 Educat 15.8% Educ. & Trade/Trans Educational Leisure & Health Ho 9.6% 16 portation/uti Leisure10.7% & Health Other Services 4.4% 7.3 lities Other S3.9% Prof. & Services 13.6% 20.0% Professiona Government Business 15.8% 14.8% Financial 24.7 88.9% Govern15.6% 100.0% l & Services Information #N/A #N/A Activities Business 8.8% 0.9% #N/A #N/A 3.6% Services #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 14.0% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Mar - 2016) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA -900 NA NA -900 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 5.0% Manufacturi ng 8.5% 100 200 300 600 100 500 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 18.8% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 5.7% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1,000 Government -300 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2016 - Mar) 36-month change (2016 - Mar) 2.5% 13.1% 3.1% 10.5% Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.55% change and lags the rest of the nation
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2016 New Housing Construction 522 not comparable The current level of construction is 14.3% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 609 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -28.5% 11.3% Construction continues to decline from last year 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2015 Ratio for 2016 7.2% 7.0% 15.6% 14.5% Historically strong and an improvement over the fourth quarter of 2015 Historical Average 9.5% 19.5% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2015 1.3 Ratio for 2016 1.3 Historical Average 1.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1997 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2011 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) The first quarter of 2016 was marked by paroxysms in financial, energy, and commodity markets. The uncertainty in China and the emerging-market economies, the gathering doubt about the sustainability of the modern European project, and weakness in domestic growth were the issues of the early days of 2016. With regard to the mortgage market, the year began after the FED started its tightening cycle with the first rate hike this past December. However, since the start of the year mortgage rates have dropped as the FED held off on expected rate hikes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.9 percent in the 4th quarter of 2015 to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2016. The 10-year Treasury fell to 1.92 percent which is the lowest rate after 2012. Rates are likely to remain low through the spring as the market deals with international instability and mixed signals for the domestic economy. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expected to average just 4.3 percent for 2016.
6.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2016 - Apr 3.7% 3.8% Prior 12 months 3.9% 3.9% REALTORS expect weaker price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months. Their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2015 Today's Market $160,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2015 ) $138,300 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2015 ) 0.7% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2015 ) 4.3% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $5,700 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $5,700 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $18,300 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only $221,067 6.5% 23.6% $42,233 $40,300 $1,633 Local Trend Prices continue to grow relative to last year Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 33% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $30,000 $20,000 $23,956 $10,000 $3,216 $0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Total Equity Gained** through 2015 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity 1-year (4-quarter) $3,216 $16,784 3-year (12-quarter)* $13,038 $52,129 5-year (20-quarter)* $16,357 $62,764 7-year (28 quarters)* $18,606 $52,606 9-year (36 quarters)* $33,484 $16,571 If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $49,204 $11,104 Local Trend Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Dec) 12-month Job Change (Nov) 36-month Job Change (Dec) Current Unemployment Rate (Dec) 5,200 5,000 13,300 6.5% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 5.0% Employment has held up and is on an upward trend 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 6.5% 3.1% 5.6% 2.1% Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 13.7% 23.9 Natural 4.9% Natural #N/A #N/A Resources/ #N/A #N/A Mining/Con #N/A Governmen #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governmen Manufacturing Other t 13.7% Other t 13.1% 22.8 Manufac8.7% Services 14.1% Services 15.5% 4.0% Trade/Transpo 3.8% 19.9% 34.7 Leisure Trade/T & 19.1% Information 0.9% 1.5 Manufacturi Hospitality Leisure & Informa1.9% ng 10.4% Hospitality Financial Act 3.2% 5.6 13.1% 9.2% Financi 5.8% Prof. & Busin 9.0% 15.6 Profess13.9% Educ. & Heal 13.1% 22.8 Educat 15.8% Educ. & Trade/Trans Educational Leisure & Health Ho 9.2% 16.1 portation/uti Leisure10.4% Other Service Services & Health 3.8% Prof. & 6.7 lities Other S4.0% 13.1% Services Information 19.9% Professiona Business 15.8% Government 14.1% 24.6 0.9% 86.3% Govern15.5% 100.0% l & Services Financial Business #N/A #N/A 9.0% Activities #N/A #N/A Services #N/A #N/A 3.2% #N/A #N/A 13.9% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Dec - 2015) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA 3,200 NA NA 500 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 4.9% Manufacturi ng 8.7% 0 0-300 900 600 100 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 19.1% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 5.8% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 700 Government -500 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2015 - Dec) 36-month change (2015 - Dec) 2.5% 12.9% 3.2% 10.6% Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.75% change and lags the rest of the nation
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Dec 2015 New Housing Construction 566 not comparable The current level of construction is 7.1% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 609 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec 2015) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -10.4% 9.7% Construction continues to decline from last year 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2015 Ratio for 2015 7.5% 7.5% 15.6% 15.1% Historically strong and an improvement over the third quarter of 2015 Historical Average 9.9% 19.5% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2015 1.3 Ratio for 2015 1.3 Historical Average 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1997 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2010 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) Despite indications of economic strength early in the 4th quarter, the Federal Reserve held of its much anticipated rate increases until mid-december. However, a fresh set of weak economic numbers centered on a slowing Chinese economy, excess oil, and the potential impacts on domestic oil exploration and manufacturing softened domestic economic growth in the 4th quarter. As a result, Treasuries slumped as investors moved money into this safe haven and mortgage rates benefited. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage eased modestly from 4.0 percent in the 3rd quarter to 3.9 percent in the 4th. The 10-year Treasury did not fall as much MBS and as a result the spread between them eased from 173 basis points to 171. While mortgage rates remained cheap, lenders were hit with the implementation of the new TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rules (TRID) on October 3rd. Some lenders struggled to comply and a result roughly 10 percent of settlements were delayed by roughly 8 days on average, though few were canceled. Rates are likely to remain low through the spring as the market deals with international instability and the FED pulls back from planned rate hikes, but some lenders may continue to have issues with the new settlement procedures. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expect to average just 4.3 percent for 2016, down from earlier estimates near 5.0 percent.
6.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2015 - Dec 3.1% 3.3% Prior 12 months 3.9% 3.4% REALTORS expect weaker price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months. Their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2015 Today's Market $160,000 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 20% $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2015 ) $133,300 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2015 ) 4.1% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2015 ) 8.7% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $10,700 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $10,400 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $33,900 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only $203,867 6.7% 28.8% $45,533 $5,333 -$13,067 Local Trend Prices continue to grow relative to last year Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 32% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2015 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Bill Jones.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $20,000 $15,985 $10,000 $7,235 $0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Total Equity Gained** through 2015 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity 1-year (4-quarter) $7,235 $15,753 3-year (12-quarter)* $16,919 $53,565 5-year (20-quarter)* $15,811 $47,444 7-year (28 quarters)* $22,345 $17,200 9-year (36 quarters)* $46,488 $100 If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $57,234 $16,323 Local Trend Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Mar) 12-month Job Change (Feb) 36-month Job Change (Mar) Current Unemployment Rate (Mar) 7,600 9,000 5,300 6.2% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 5.5% Employment growth has eased, but remains positive 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 8.6% 4.7% 6.6% 2.1% Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 12.7% 21.5 Natural 5.0% Natural #N/A #N/A Resources/ #N/A #N/A Mining/Con #N/A Governmen #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governmen t 12.7% Other t Manufacturing 13.5% 22.8 Manufac8.7% Other 14.8% Services 15.8% 4.0% Trade/Transpo Services 19.4% 32.9 Trade/T 18.8% Manufacturi Leisure & 3.9% Information 0.9% 1.5 ng Hospitality Informa2.0% Leisure & 13.5% 10.6% Financial Hospitality Act 3.3% 5.6 Financi 5.7% 9.3% Prof. & Busin 9.2% 15.5 Profess13.9% Educ. Educ. & Heal & 13.0% 22 Educat 15.6% Leisure Health Trade/Trans Educational & Ho 9.3% 15.8 Leisure10.6% Services portation/uti & Health Other Service 3.9% 6.6 Other S4.0% 13.0% Prof. & lities Services Professiona Government Business 19.4% 15.6% 14.8% Financial 25.1 87.3% Govern15.8% 100.0% l & Services #N/A #N/A Activities Business #N/A #N/A 9.2% Information 3.3% Services #N/A #N/A 0.9% #N/A #N/A 13.9% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Mar - 2015) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA 3,900 NA NA 900 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 5.0% Manufacturi ng 8.7% 100 200 1,400 500 800-100 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 18.8% Information 2.0% Financial Activities 5.7% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 700 Government -800 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2015 - Mar) 36-month change (2015 - Mar) 4.3% 13.2% 3.4% 9.3% Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's 4.55% change
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2015 New Housing Construction 730 not comparable The current level of construction is 20.7% above the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2015) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 605 138.6% not comparable 3.1% Production above trend for an extended period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local inventory has stabilized 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2014 Ratio for 2015 7.5% 6.9% 15.8% 14.3% Historically strong and an improvement over the fourth quarter of 2014 Historical Average 9.5% 20.0% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2014 1.3 Ratio for 2015 1.2 Historical Average 1.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1996 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2010 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) The headline measure of economic activity, GDP growth, swung from a soft 2.2% in the 4th quarter of 2014 to a dismal 0.2% in the 1st quarter of 2015 with some suggesting that the 1st quarter figure would be revised lower. Sharp declines in global fuel prices over the winter impacted the domestic oil industry, while a rapid rise in the value of the dollar impacted domestic manufacturers ability to export and increased competition from importers. As a result, employment in both industries slumped in the first quarter. Compounding these issues was weakness in single family housing starts and construction. Weather was partially to blame, but builder sentiment was weak reflecting a pullback in consumer confidence. While not a recession, this economic soft patch weighed on mortgage rates in the 1st quarter which saw the average 30-year fixed rate fall from 3.97% in the 4th quarter to 3.73% in the 1st quarter of 2015. Treasury rates fell by more and a result the spread between the two rose from 169 basis points to 176. Affordability surged on sub-4% mortgage rates that were augmented by a sharp 50 basis point cut to the FHA s annual mortgage insurance premium. NAR Research forecasts the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to climb to 4.3% by year end 2014 and to average 5.2% in 2016 as the Federal Reserve begins to raise short term rates in response to improving domestic and international economic conditions gain steam.
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% REALTOR Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) Source: NAR REALTOR Price Expectations Texas 2015 - Mar 3.7% 3.5% Prior 12 months 4.7% 3.5% REALTORS expect higher price growth in Texas than in the in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, Second Quarter 2014 Today's Market Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $160,000 20% $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2014 ) $138,600 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2014 ) 1.7% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2014 ) 9.4% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $11,900 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $10,900 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $42,100 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only $212,267 4.6% 25.8% $43,600 -$11,500 -$8,000 Local Trend Prices continue to grow relative to last year Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 33% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $30,000 $20,000 $23,479 $10,000 $4,604 $0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Total Equity Gained** through 2014 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity 1-year (4-quarter) $4,604 $12,731 3-year (12-quarter)* $17,612 $51,204 5-year (20-quarter)* $10,327 $48,225 7-year (28 quarters)* $22,465 $1,750 9-year (36 quarters)* $55,207 $5,043 If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $55,207 $5,043 Local Trend Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the recession *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Jun) 12-month Job Change (May) 36-month Job Change (Jun) Current Unemployment Rate (Jun) 1,100 1,000-2,300 7.9% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 6.1% Employment has held up and is on an upward trend 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 10.6% 0.7% 7.5% 1.7% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 11.0% 17.4 Natural Natural 5.2% #N/A #N/A Resources/ #N/A #N/A Mining/Con #N/A Governmen #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governme 11.0% Other t nt Manufacturing 14.1% 22.4 Manufac8.8% Services 15.6% 14.9% Other 4.0% Trade/Transpo Services 20.6% 32.7 Manufacturi Leisure Trade/T & 19.1% 3.8% Information 0.9% 1.4 ng Hospitality Informa1.9% Leisure & 14.1% 11.1% Financial Hospitality Act 3.5% 5.6 Financi 5.8% 9.8% Prof. & Busin 8.1% 12.8 Profess14.0% Educ. & Heal 12.7% 20.1 Educat 15.2% Educ. & Trade/Tran Educational Leisure & Health Ho 9.8% 15.5 sportation/u Leisure11.1% & Health Other Services 3.8% 6.1 tilities Other Services S4.0% 12.7% Prof. & Profession 20.6% 15.2% Government Business 15.6% 24.8 89.0% Govern14.9% 100.0% al & Financial #N/A Services #N/A Information Business Activities #N/A #N/A 8.1% 0.9% Services #N/A #N/A 3.5% #N/A #N/A 14.0% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Jun - 2014) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA 100 NA NA 800 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 5.2% Manufacturi ng 8.8% 0 0-300 -900 100 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 19.1% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 5.8% Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services 0 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1,500 Government -200 State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2014 - Jun) 36-month change (2014 - Jun) Texas 4.7% 13.7% 3.2% 9.2% The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.41% change
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2014 New Housing Construction 446 not comparable The current level of construction is 24.2% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 589 43.4% not comparable 6.4% Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local inventory has stabilized 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2013 Ratio for 2014 7.5% 7.9% 14.9% 16.1% Historically strong, but weaker than the first quarter of 2014 Historical Average 9.7% 20.3% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2013 1.3 Ratio for 2014 1.3 Historical Average 1.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2009 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) Despite the continued wind-down of the Federal Reserve s MBS and Treasury purchase program, mortgage rates remain low. The program was averaging $40 billion in purchases monthly of MBS issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as $45 billion in US Treasury bonds prior to the taper. The intent was to place downward pressure on the long-term borrowing costs. Rates were anticipated to rise as the Fed withdrew its support. However, GDP fell sharply in the 1st quarter, outpacing already weak expectations for the quarter. Furthermore, continued instability in Europe with the conflict in Ukraine heating up as well as volatility in the Israel, Syria, and Iraq, coupled with lingering questions about the veracity of the US economy have kept rates low. Rates averaged roughly 4.25% in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The Fed will continue to taper its new purchases of MBS through the late summer ending this portion of the program in October. The Fed will continue to reinvest the principle of MBS and Treasuries indefinitely, though, which is supportive of the market. Rates will likely be more volatile in response to economic news without the robust Fed purchase volume or nascent expansion of private demand for agency MBS. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will drive up rates over the long-term. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.5% for 2014, but to be 4.8% in the 4th quarter of 2014 and to average 5.3% for 2015.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2014 Today's Market Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $160,000 25% $140,000 20% $120,000 15% $100,000 10% $80,000 5% $60,000 0% $40,000-5% $20,000-10% $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2014 ) $128,000 $191,567 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2014 ) 0.7% 8.9% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2014 ) 3.7% 21.3% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $4,600 $33,633 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $12,200 -$22,533 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $38,000 -$8,000 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Local Trend Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 31% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $20,000 $15,032 $10,000 $3,115 $0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Total Equity Gained** through 2014 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $3,115 $18,699 3-year (12-quarter)* $9,999 $40,543 5-year (20-quarter)* $8,471 $33,789 Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have 7-year (28 quarters)* $22,910 $10,026 boosted total equity growth since the 9-year (36 quarters)* $50,164 $3,658 recession If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $50,164 $3,658 *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Mar) 12-month Job Change (Feb) 36-month Job Change (Mar) Current Unemployment Rate (Mar) -600-1,100-1,100 8.2% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 6.7% Job losses are a problem and will weigh on demand, but layoffs are declining, a trend that could help buyer confidence 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 9.9% -0.4% 7.5% 1.7% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 10.9% Natural 17.3 Natural 4.9% Resources/ #N/A #N/A Mining/Con #N/A #N/A #N/A Governmen #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governme t 10.9% Other nt Manufacturing Other 16.2% 13.9% 22 Manufac8.7% Services 16.1% Trade/Transpo Services 19.9% 31.5 Trade/T 4.0% 18.8% 4.3% Manufacturi Leisure & Information 0.9% 1.4 ng Hospitality Informa1.9% Leisure & 13.9% 10.5% Financial Hospitality Act 3.5% 5.5 Financi 5.7% Prof. & 9.6% Busin 7.8% 12.4 Profess13.8% Educ. & Heal 12.9% 20.4 Educat 15.6% Educ. & Trade/Tran Educational Leisure & Health Ho 9.6% 15.1 sportation/u Leisure10.5% & Health Other Services 4.3% 6.8 tilities Other Services S4.0% Prof. & 19.9% Profession 12.9% Government 16.2% 25.6 89.1% Govern16.1% 15.6% Business Financial 100.0% al & #N/A Services #N/A Activities Information Business #N/A #N/A 7.8% 3.5% 0.9% Services #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 13.8% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Mar - 2014) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA -500 NA NA 700 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 4.9% Manufacturi ng 8.7% 0 0-1,100-900 200 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 18.8% Information Financial 1.9% Activities 5.7% Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services 100 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1,000 Government -100 State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2014 - Mar) 36-month change (2014 - Mar) Texas 4.4% 13.9% 2.9% 8.8% The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.19% change
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2014 New Housing Construction 306 not comparable The current level of construction is 48.1% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 590 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -14.5% 14.2% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2013 Ratio for 2014 7.5% 7.4% 14.9% 14.8% Historically strong and an improvement over the fourth quarter of 2013 Historical Average 9.2% 20.3% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2013 Ratio for 2014 1.3 1.2 Historical Average 1.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2009 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) The Federal Reserve continued to taper its support for the housing market in the first quarter of 2014 at a pace of $5b fewer GSE MBS and Treasuries purchased each month. Over the prior year the Fed had purchased roughly $45 billion a month of mortgage backed securities from the GSEs and Ginnie Mae as well as 10-year Treasury bonds. These purchased pushed up on MBS prices, which in turn pushed mortgage rates lower. While the taper had a modest initial upward lift on rates, negative economic news, including weak employment gains, a decline in home sales and instability in Europe, more than offset the upward drift. What's more, the Fed still remains the dominant player in the market for MBS as the total volume of MBS has fallen faster than the rate of Fed purchases due to the sharp drop in refinancing in recent quarters. As a result, mortgage rates remained stable in the first quarter. The Fed will continue to taper through the spring which will have a moderate impact on rates so long as the economy remains in low gear and investor demand for agency MBS re-emerges. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will reemerge and the Fed's purchases will decline to a level that truly reduces it support for the market so rates will rise later this year. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.7% for 2014, but to be 5.1% in the 4th quarter.
Geographic Coverage for this Report The area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the -Port Arthur metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hardin County, Jefferson County, and Orange County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/
-Port Arthur Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2013 Today's Market Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $160,000 25% $140,000 20% $120,000 15% $100,000 10% $80,000 5% $60,000 0% $40,000-5% $20,000-10% $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-15% Local Price Trends Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2013 ) $136,800 $197,000 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2013 ) 3.2% 10.2% 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2013 ) 3.0% 16.0% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $4,000 $27,133 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $16,800 -$22,400 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $49,000 -$1,900 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Local Trend Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession Conforming Loan Limit** $417,000 $625,500 Most buyers in this market have access FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $625,500 to government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 33% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013 Local NAR Leadership The -Port Arthur market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.
Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $40,000 $30,000 $31,912 $20,000 $10,000 $6,566 $0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Total Equity Gained** through 2013 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $6,566 $21,357 3-year (12-quarter)* $10,231 $35,104 5-year (20-quarter)* $12,879 $26,921 Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have 7-year (28 quarters)* $27,861 $9,428 boosted total equity growth since the 9-year (36 quarters)* $60,904 $9,859 recession If purchased in 2005, the national price peak $43,889 $15,04 *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% down payment. Down payment is not included in total equity
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Dec) 12-month Job Change (Nov) 36-month Job Change (Dec) Current Unemployment Rate (Dec) 2,000 2,600 4,200 9.0% Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 6.7% Employment growth has eased, but remains positive 's unemployment rate lags the national average, but has improved relative to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 9.9% 1.2% 7.9% 1.7% Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve -Port Arthur Area Share of Total Employment by Industry Natural Resour 11.9% 19.5 Natural 4.7% Natural #N/A #N/A Resources/ #N/A #N/A Mining/Con #N/A #N/A struct #N/A #N/A Governme Governmen 11.9% Manufacturing Other t Other nt 14.2% 23.2 Manufac8.8% Services 15.0% Services 16.0% Trade/Transpo 20.0% 32.7 Trade/T 4.0% 3.4% 19.2% Manufacturi Leisure & Information Leisure & 0.8% 1.3 ng Hospitality Informa1.9% Hospitality 14.2% 10.2% Financial 9.1% Act 3.6% 5.9 Financi 5.8% Prof. & Busin 8.5% 13.9 Profess13.7% Educ. Educ. & Heal & 13.5% 22.1 Educat 15.6% Health Trade/Tran Educational Leisure Services & Ho 9.1% 14.8 Leisure10.2% sportation/u & Health Other Service 13.5% Prof. 3.4% & 5.6 tilities Other Services S4.0% Business Profession Government 15.0% 24.5 88.1% 20.0% 15.6% Services Govern16.0% 100.0% al & Financial #N/A 8.5% Business #N/A Activities Information #N/A #N/A Services #N/A #N/A 3.6% 0.8% #N/A #N/A 13.7% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the -Port Arthur Area (Dec - 2013) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing NA -300 NA NA 1,600 Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Natural Resources/ Mining/Con struct 4.7% Manufacturi ng 8.8% -100 200 300-200 100 Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 19.2% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 5.8% Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services -100 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1,000 Government -500 State Economic Activity Index Texas 12-month change (2013 - Dec) 36-month change (2013 - Dec) 3.0% 11.7% 3.1% 8.9% Texas' economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 3.15% change and lags the rest of the nation
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Dec 2013 New Housing Construction 287 not comparable The current level of construction is 51.7% below the long-term average 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 594 not comparable Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with inventory more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec 2013) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -36.5% 20.2% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 1,400 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices. 6.0% State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2013 Ratio for 2013 7.5% 7.9% 14.9% 15.1% Historically strong and an improvement over the third quarter of 2013 Historical Average 9.2% 20.3% More affordable than most markets 12% Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2013 Ratio for 2013 1.3 1.3 Historical Average 1.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995 Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The Mortgage Market 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 2008 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) Mortgages rates eased through the end of September and early October following Ben Bernanke s announcement in late September that the Federal Reserve would not taper its purchases of mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries. The downward trend reached a low of 4.10% for the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but was briefly interrupted by the debt ceiling debate which pushed up modestly on rates in mid-october. However, following a spate of positive economic news releases in November including stronger than expected retails sales and a surprise jump in new employment as well as positive revisions to the measure for employment gains in September and October, the chairman of the Federal Reserve board voted to begin the taper in December. As a result, mortgage rates rose steadily in December and ended the year at 4.48%. The Fed has since continued its taper despite softening economic and employment data. The taper is likely priced in but the weak economic news is holding back higher rates. A stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, is inevitable so rates will rise later this year. NAR is forecasting an average 30- year fixed rate of 5.0% for 2014.