CAPE FEAR AREA HOUSING economic climate report 201
CFR CHIEF ECONOMIST WILLIAM W.(WOODY) HALL, JR., PhD William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr., PhD, is Professor Emeritus of Economics, Department of Economics and Finance, Cameron School of Business, the University of North Carolina Wilmington. Prior to his retirement in June 201, he served as faculty member at UNCW for more than 40 years. He received his BA from Presbyterian College and his MS and PhD degrees from Clemson University. He specializes in the analysis of regional or sub-national economic activity and in the economic aspects of environmental pollution. a collaborative effort by Cape Fear REALTORS and the Wilmington - Cape Fear Home Builders Association 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS MSA Definition... Map of Geographical Area of MSA... MSA Unemployment Comparison... Economic Growth Outlook... RESIDENTIAL HOMES Existing Single Family Homes Sales... 3-County Comparison... Average Sales Price Single Family Homes... 3-County Comparison... Days on Market Single Family Homes... Months of Supply Single Family Homes... Duplin County... Sampson County... RESIDENTIAL LOTS Sales Units and Average Price by Year... 3-County comparison... Land Distribution by 3-County Comparison... INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Interest Rates & Outlook... HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Housing Affordability in Wilmington... NEW HOMES Permit Comparison State and Nation... 3-County Permit Comparison... Permit Distribution by 3-County Comparison... New Home Average Sales Price 3-County Comparison... 3 3 4-7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 17 18 19-20 21 22 23 24 2
WILMINGTON metropolitan statistical area MSA (also known as Metro) is defined as having at least one urbanized area with a population of 0,000 or more, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting patterns. Pre-2013 WILM MSA Preceding 2013, The Wilmington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included the following counties: Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender. New-WILM MSA In early 2013, the Wilmington, NC MSA was redefined to include New Hanover and Pender Counties. Prior to that time, the MSA also included Brunswick County. Brunswick County is now part of the Myrtle Beach, SC MSA. 3
Unemployment Rate The United States added 2.4 million jobs over the past year. Since reaching a low of 127.8 million in January 2010, total non-farm payroll employment, 144.3 million, is currently 3.4% above its pre-recession peak level of 139. million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently 4.7%, 0.2 percentage points below its level one year ago and.3 percentage points below its recession-era peak of 10 percentage points..1.0.0.0 4.7 201.2.2.0.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9.1 4.8 4. National State Wilmington 4.7 The state of North Carolina added 80 thousand jobs over the past year. Since reaching a low of 3.79 million in January 2010, total non-farm payroll employment, 4.3 million, is currently 3.3 percentage points above its pre-recession peak level of 4.21 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently.1%, 0.1 percentage points below its level one year ago and.2 percentage points below its recessionera peak of 11.3 percentage points. Wilmington, NC added 3,300 jobs over the past year. An estimated 1,00 new construction jobs were added across the Wilmington area, this includes Brunswick County. Since reaching a low of 10.0 thousand in January 2011, total non-farm payroll employment, 123.20 thousand, is currently 2.8 percentage points above its pre-recession peak level of 119.90 thousand. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is currently 4.7%, 0. percentage points below its level one year ago and. percentage points below its recession-era peak of 10.3 percentage points..2 4.7 4.4 11 10 4.8 4. 4.8 4. 4. 4. Over most of 201 and through the first two months of 2017, unemployment rates have been relatively stable in the MSA (hovering between 4.4% &.2%), the state (hovering between 4.9% &.3%), and the nation (hovering between 4.% &.0%). 4.7 mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 % unemployment rate State National Wilmington 4 4 3.7.0 7..8 4. 4.2 3.8 4 3.8.3 9. 10 9.9 9.0 7.8.1. 4.8 % unemployment rate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US Department of Labor 4
Economic Growth Outlook Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in 292 metropolitan areas in 201, led by growth in professional and business services; wholesale and retail trade; and finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing, according to statistics on the geographic breakout of GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Collectively, real GDP for U. S. metropolitan areas decreased to 1. percent in 201 after increasing 2. percent in 201. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US Department of Commerce indicate that growth in real (inflation-adjusted) output in the Wilmington, North Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), composed of New Hanover and Pender Counties, was highly volatile over the three-year period 2013 to 201. The MSA economy grew 4.7% over 2013, 3.4% over 2014, 1.9% over 201 and 2.1% over 201. The growth rates in real MSA, state, and national output since 2013. In both 201 and 2017 growth in the MSA is forecast to be greater than that in both the state and nation. The historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The state forecasts are from the Barings/UNC Charlotte economic forecasting project, and the national forecasts are from Wells Fargo Securities. The Wilmington MSA forecasts were developed by William W. Hall, Jr., PhD, professor emeritus of economics, UNC Wilmington. 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.9 4.7 2.7 2. 1.9 2.1 1. 2.0 2.4 2.2 3.4 2013 2014 201 201 2017 (f) WILM-MSA GDP % Increase State GDP % Increase National GDP % Increase
1.7 1.4 1.0 1. 1.4 1.0 14. 14.4 14.8 14.9 14. 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.9 12.7 12. 1. 2. 2.4 1.7 2.2 1. 2. 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.0 4.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 -.3 The U.S. economy continued to expand, but at a subpar pace. Historically, the GDP grows by 3% each year, a figure that has not been reached for the past 11 straight years. -2.8.3 GDP ($ Trillions) GDP % Year to Year data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis housed in the US Department of Commerce.
E xisting Single-Family Homes Sales The following analysis is based on data on sales of existing single-family homes in Pender County, New Hanover County, and Brunswick County, NC (Wilmington Area), North Carolina (State) and the United States (National). The United States added over 200,000 more sales over the 201 level of.3 million. The 201 sales level increased to. million units, 4% above its level one year ago. Since reaching a low of 4.1 in 2008, it is currently 23% below its 200 peak level of 7.1 million sales and 32% higher than its recession-era bottom of 4.1 million units. The state of North Carolina added 12,33 sales over the 201 level of 127,942. The 201 sales level was 140,47, 10% above its 201 level. Since reaching a low of 80,00 sales in 2011, it is currently 0.% below its 200 peak level of 141,20 and % higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of 80,00. 7.1 Total Wilmington area sales fell 8% from their 200 peak level of 12,0 to their 2009 bottom level of,00. Sales grew continuously over 2010 to. 201. The 201 sales level was 4% above its 201 level of 9,819. Since reaching a low of,00 sales in 2009, it is currently 1% below its 200 peak level of 12,0 and 104% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of,00..0.1 4.9.3. Units Sold 13 141 12 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.7 113 118 128 140 93 94 81 81 80 12,0 9,387 7,44,40,00,439,4 7,07 8,089 8,49 9,819 10,230 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 7 # in Wilmington Area # in State (1000s) # in National (millions) data source from Regional MLS, NCAR & NAR 200-201
Brunswick County Brunswick County 201 sales level was 3,821, 1% above its level one year ago of 3,77. Since reaching a low of 2,034 sales in 2009, it is currently 1% below its high 200 peak level of 4,00 and 88% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of 2,034. Units Sold 13 141 12 4,00 3,07 2,789 93 2,094 81 81 80 2,034 2,230 2,230 94 2,3 113 3,101 118 128 3,28 3,77 140 3,821 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 State (1000s) County New Hanover County New Hanover 201 sales level was 4,981, 10% above its level one year ago of 4,4. Since reaching a low of 2,23 sales in 2009, it is currently 23% below its high 200 peak level of,491 and 100% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of 2,23. Units Sold 13,491 141 4,933 12 3,948 93 2,84 128 118 113 94 81 81 80 2,23 2,8 2,703 3,1 3,89 3,919 4,4 140 4,981 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 Pender County Pender County 201 sales level was 1,428, % below its level one year ago of 1,499. Since reaching a low of 499 sales in 2009, it is currently 34% above its high 200 peak level of 1,04 and 218% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of 449. data source from Regional MLS, NCAR & NAR 200-201 Units Sold 13 1,04 141 947 12 708 93 10 81 81 80 449 23 12 843 1,129 1,2 1,499 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 94 113 118 128 140 1,428 8
Average Sales Price Single-Family Homes The following analysis is based on data on an average sales price of existing single-family homes in Pender County, New Hanover County, and Brunswick County (Wilmington Area), North Carolina (State) and the United States (National). The United States average home sales price increased $9,00 to $27,000 over the 201 sales price of 2,400, an increase of 4%. Since reaching a low of $214,000 in 2011, it is currently 3% above its 200 peak sales price of $28,2000, and 29% higher than its recession-era bottom of $214,000. North Carolina 201 average price increased to $234,24 over the 201 sales price of $21,1, an increase of 8%. Since reaching a low sales price of $197,07 in 2011, it is currently 4% higher than its high 2007 peak level of $223,34 and 19% higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of $197,07. Wilmington s average home sales price increased to $22,993 over the 201 sales price of $28,30, an increase of 2%. Since reaching a low of $231,0 sales price in 2011, it is currently $34,284 less than its high 2007 peak price of $297,280 and $ 31,937 higher than its 2012 recession-era bottom of $231,93. Wilmington s average home sales price is 12% greater than the North Carolina average home sales price and $13,007 less than the National average home sales price of $27,000 for 201. 27 Average Sales Price 2 211 28 21 2 224 243 21 217 220 201 203 214 197 22 203 24 211 2 21 2 217 23 274,17 284,137 297,280 274,34 2,347 24,08 23,0 231,0 238,947 247,804 28,30 22,993 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 9 Wilmington Area ($) State ($1000s) National ($1000s ) data source from Regional MLS, NCAR & NAR 200-201
Brunswick County In 201 the Brunswick County average home sales price increased $1,77 to $244,3 over the 201 home price of $242,789, an increase of 0.%. Since reaching a low home sales price of $219,31 in 2013, it is currently $37,712 below its 2007 peak price of $282,078 and $2,01 higher than its 2013 recession-era bottom. It is $9,742 above the NC State average home price and $31,33 below the national average home price for 201. New Hanover County In 201 New Hanover County average home sales price increased $,74 to $279,39 over the 201 home price of $272,823, a 2% increase. Since reaching a low sales price of $241,8 in 2012, it is currently $3,0 below its 2007 peak price of $314,9 and $37,828 higher than its 2012 recessionera bottom of $241,8. It s $44,772 above the North Carolina average home price and $3,99 greater than the National average home price for 201. Pender County Since 200 the average price has decreased in only two years, viz., 2008 and 2010. Prices began rising in 2011, but the growth rate has fluctuated between 0.3% in 2012 and 7 % in 2014. Pender County average home sales price increased slightly $1,9 to $2,17 over the past years home price of $23,00. Since reaching a low home sales price of $209,20 in 2010, it is currently $2,982 below its 2007 peak price of $28,00 and $24,412 higher than its 2010 recession-era bottom of $209,20. It s $20,993 above the NC State average home price and $20,382 below the national average home price for 201. Average Sales Price Average Sales Price Average Sales Price 2 28 27 2 2 2 243 24 211 21 21 217 220 214 22 23 21 217 201 203 197 203 211 277 272 282 21 23 233 227 223 219 229 243 244 224 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 National ($1000s) State ($1000s) County ($1000s) 2 28 2 27 2 2 243 24 211 21 21 217 220 214 22 23 211 21 217 201 203 197 203 280 299 31 292 23 22 24 242 28 2 273 279 197 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 27 2 28 2 2 2 243 24 217 22 220 214 211 21 224 23 21 201 203 203 211 21 217 219 2 29 229 234 209 219 220 224 239 24 2 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 data source from Regional MLS, NCAR & NAR 200-201 10
2 0 1 1 34 74 43 DOM Single-Family Homes 2 0 1 3 2 101 0 One frequently used indicator of residential single-family housing market strength is median days on market (DOM), the number of days that a residential property sits on the market before a completed sale. In general, a fall suggests a strengthening market, while a rise suggests a weakening market. 2 0 1 4 8 72 10 For the most part, median DOM rose continuously in all three counties and the nation over 200 to 2011, when they peaked. In 2011 the national median DOM was 97 days. It decreased down to 43 days in 201, a reduction of 4 days or % from the 2011 peak, suggesting a very strong real estate market across the nation. 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 8 113 4 7 110 101 10 1 131 3 78 97 In 2011, Brunswick County median DOM was 131 days, 34 days higher than the Nation. In 201 it decreased 7 days or 43% to 74 days from the 2011 peak. This trend suggests a strengthening real estate market. In 2011, New Hanover County median DOM was 10 days, 7 days greater than the National. In 201 it decreased 74 days or 8% to 34 days from its 2011 peak. This trend suggests a strengthening real estate market. In 2011, Pender County median DOM was 101 days, lowest of the 3 counties for most of the recover years. In 201 it decreased days or 4% to 3 days from 2011, 14 less days than the national average. In 201, Pender County lost a few weeks by adding 1 days. This trend suggests a strengthening real estate market. Brunswick New Hanover Pender National 11 data source from NC Regional MLS and NAR Survey 2009 to 201
Months of Supply Single-Family Homes This chart shows the absorption rate per year, this depicts how many months it would take for all the current homes on the market to sell. Five to eight months of supply is considered a Balanced Market: if the number is less than five months, this suggests a Seller s Market. If the number is greater than 8 months, this suggests a Buyer s Market. Brunswick County hit a high in 2007 with a 28 months supply which was 218% or 20 months higher than the National 9 months supply. Brunswick County months supply dropped to 8 months in 201, a 71% drop from its 200 peak. This suggests a balanced real estate market for 201. 28 18 20 Pender County hit a high in 2009 with a 20 months supply which was 130% or 11 months higher than the national supply average of 9 months. Pender County dropped to 7 month supply in 201. This was a % drop from its 2009 peak. This suggests a balanced real estate market for 201. New Hanover hit a high in 2009 with a 18 months supply which was 100% or 9 months higher than the national supply average of 9 supply dropped to a month supply in 201, a 73% drop from its 2009 peak. This suggests a marginally balancedseller s real estate market for 201. Buyer s Market 8 months or more Balanced Market Seller s Market months or less 10 9 9 9 8 7 4 14 7 10 12 28 14 1 24 24 1 20 19 14 17 1 10 1 13 8 14 12 8 13 10 10 4 8 7 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 Brunswick New Hanover data source for NC Regional MLS and NAR 200 to 201 Pender National 12
Duplin County Existing Single-Family Homes # of Sales Average Sales Price 198 199 17 11 14 1 18 173 121 113 11 97 91,72 104,349 103,11 129,101 9,27 97,47 88,339 97,0 103,400 107,81 111,77 11,02 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 The Duplin County average home sales price increased $,244 to $11,812 or % over the 201 home price of $111,77. Since reaching a low home sales price of $88,339 in 2011, it is currently 10% or $12,280 below its 2008 peak price of $129,101 and 33% or $28,482 higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of $88,339. The average sales price for Duplin County is significantly below the State and local Wilmington Area. Duplin County is % or $14,171 below the 201 average home sales price for the Wilmington Area and $117,803 or 0 % below North Carolina. Duplin County hit 173 sales for 201 which was 10% higher than the past year level of 18. Since reaching a low level of 97 sales in 2010, it is currently 13% below its 200 peak level of 199 sales and 78% higher than its 2010 recession-era bottom of 97 sales. In 2011, Duplin County median days on market (DOM) was 119 days, this was 22 days higher than the National DOM of 97 days. In 201 it decreased 3 days or 29% to 84 days from its 2011 peak of 119. Monthly supply dropped to 13 months in 201 from its 2011 peak of 24 months. By most metrics, the local existing single-family real estate market is improving. This growth in Duplin County is supported by rising sales volume and average sales prices and declining average days on market and supply. This suggests a buyer s real estate market that is strengthening. 93 10 77 9 80 11 11 14 103 1 110 22 119 24 100 23 100 21 DOM Month Supply 120 111 84 1 1 13 13 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 data source from Regional MLS 200-201
Sampson County Existing Single-Family Homes # of Sales Average Sales Price 18 14 10 12 148 14 18 113 119 122 11 130 99,1 97,91 102,002 11,727 113,331 109,812 10,21 98,937 9,70 117,894 10,231 11,02 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 The Sampson County average home sales price increased $10,271 to $11,02 or 10 % over the 201 home price of $10,231. Since reaching a low home sales price of $9,70 in 2013, it is currently 0.7% or $7 above its 2008 peak price of $11,727 and 21.7% or $20,72 higher than its 2013 recessionera bottom of $9,70. The average sales price in Sampson County is significantly below the State and Wilmington Area. Sampson County is % or $14,491 below the 201 average home sales price for the Wilmington Area and $118,122 or 1 % below North Carolina. Sampson County hit 18 sales for 201. This is 1% over the 201 level of 14 sales. Since reaching a low level of 113 sales in 2008, it is currently equal to the 200 peak level of 18 sales and 49% higher than its 2008 recession-era bottom of 113 sales. In 2011, Sampson County median days on market (DOM) was 123 days, 2 days higher than the National DOM of 97 days. In 201 it decreased 48 days to 7 days or 39% from its 2011 peak of 123 days. Monthly supply levels dropped to a 7 month level in 201, which was 0% off its 2012 peak of 14 months. By most metrics, the local existing single-family real estate market is improving in Sampson County. This growth is supported by rising sales volume and average sales prices and declining average days on market and supply. This suggests that Sampson County is in a balanced real estate market that is strengthening. 7 3 80 8 9 10 97 12 78 13 14 14 11 10 10 7 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 123 81 101 DOM Month Supply 91 91 data source from Regional MLS 200-201 14 7
Residential Lots Lot Sales & Price The following analysis is based on data supplied by CFR on sales of residential lots of no more than one acre in size in Pender County, Brunswick County and Hanover County NC (Wilmington Area) over the 200 to 201 period. Common to all three counties was a dramatic decline in sales over 200 to 2009, when they reached their trough. As was the case with home sales, the average price fell beginning in 200 but did not bottom out until 2012, three years following the year when sales reached their low point in 2009. Prices have recovered since 2012 but are still off the 200 to 2009 prices. Wilmington had 1,728 lot sales in 201 which was % higher than the past year level of 1,3. Since reaching a low of 13 lot sales in 2009, it is currently 1% below its 200 peak level of 4,437 sales and 237% higher than its 2009 recession- era bottom level of 13 lot sales. Average sales price was $98,091 in 201, 3% higher than the 201 sales price of $9,091. It is currently 31% above its 2012 recession-era bottom of $74,814 and $48,71 less than its 2008 peak of $14,820. By most metrics, the local market for residential lots continues to improve. This growth is supported by rising sales volume and average sales prices. 14 141 147 138 12 9 82 87 89 9 98 7 4,437 1,998 1,141 81 13 843 1,013 1,711 1,01 1,97 1,3 1,728 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 # Sold for Wilmington Area Average Lot Sales Price for Wilmington Area ($1000) 1
Brunswick County From 200 to 2009, lot sales fell 90% in Brunswick County to 38. Sales rebounded over 2010 to 201. Brunswick County had 1,208 lot sales in 201 which was % over the past year level of 1,138 sales. Since reaching a low of 38 lot sales in 2009, it is currently % below its 200 peak level of 3,41 sales and 237% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of 38 lot sales. The average sales price was $79,29 in 201, 2% less than the 201 sales price of $80,72. It is currently 28% greater than its 2012 recession-era bottom of $2,017 and $,137 less than its 2008 peak of $14,407. New Hanover County Sales rebounded over 2010 to 201 with a surge spike in 2012. New Hanover County had 34 lot sales in 201 which was 19% over the past year level of 289. Since reaching a low of 108 lot sales in 2009, it is currently 47% below its 200 peak level of 4 sales and 219% higher than its 2009 recession-era bottom of 108 lot sales. New Hanover County lot prices have consistently exceeded those of both Brunswick and Pender Counties, in some years by more than 100%. The Average sales price was $174,208 in 201, 1% higher than 201 sales price of $149,931. It is currently 4% above its 2011 recession-era bottom of $10,22 and $120,10 less than its 2008 peak of $294,39. Lot Sales & Price Lot Sales & Price 14 122 12 111 10 89 77 81 79 72 74 2 3,41 1,2 72 44 38 8 707 1,17 1,097 1,209 1,138 1,208 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 Average Sales Price ($1000s) 294 # Sold 23 239 211 18 174 11 1 10 123 118 10 4 283 217 131 108 188 21 378 284 279 289 34 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 Pender County In 201, Pender County had 17 lot sales which were 23% lower then 201 sales level of 22 sales. Since reaching a low of 47 lot sales in 2010, it is currently 47% below its 200 peak level of 332 sales and 272% higher than its 2009 recessionera bottom of 47 sales. The average sales price in Pender County was $77,12 in 201, 22% lower than 201 sales price of $99,31. It is currently 17% above its 2012 recession-era bottom of $,4 and $41,208 less than its 2008 peak of $118,828. data source from Regional MLS 200 to 201 Lot Sales & Price 118 112 113 9 99 99 8 78 74 72 73 332 189 10 8 47 97 91 2 220 209 22 17 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 1
Pender Land Distribution by County These charts have been developed to provide additional detail on the impact of the construction boom and succeeding recession on the residential real estate lot market in the Wilmington area. Data on lot sales for the three years of 200 (three years before the onset of the 2007-2009 national recession), 2009 (the last year of that recession), and 201 (more than seven years following the end of that recession) are shown in the respective pie charts. Between 200 and 2009, both the absolute number of and the relative importance of Brunswick County lot sales in the region declined. There was no change in Brunswick County s relative importance between 2009 and 201. In sharp contrast, the relative importance of both New Hanover County and Pender County rose between 200 and 2009. That importance did not change appreciably between 2009 and 201. 7% 1% New Hanover 200 9% 21% New Hanover Pender 78% Brunswick 70% Brunswick Pender 10% 2009 20% New Hanover 70% Brunswick 201 17 data source from Regional MLS 200-201
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 2017 2018 4.3 4.38 3. 3.8 4.17 3.98 3. 4.4 4.9.04.03.34.41.87.84.83.4.97 8.0 Interest Rate Outlook The US Federal Reserve System has begun raising interest rates. Following an average conventional 30-year mortgage interest rate of 3.% over 201, Wells Fargo Securities forecasts that this rate will rise to 4.38% and 4.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. These forecasts maintain the traditional differential of 10 to190 basis points between the mortgage interest rate and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury security. 18
What is HOUSING AFFORDABILITY for a Wilmington Worker? The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) bases its definition of affordable housing on monthly payments to amortize debt and pay utility costs which do not exceed 30% of gross monthly income. In many communities, the people that provide vital services teachers, firefighters, police officers, and health care workers and restaurant workers often cannot themselves afford to live there. Locally, nearly 0% of all employed, are lower-income service workers. In 201, in New Hanover County the average price of an existing home was $279,39. Based on this cost and the average area rental costs, 31% of homeowners and 47% of renters exceed 30% of their gross income. The average existing home price in Pender County was $2,17, with 31% of area homeowners and 43% of renters exceeding 30% of their gross income. In Brunswick County, the average price of existing home was $244,3, with 28% of area homeowners and 4% of area renters exceeding 30% of their gross income. childcare 7,19 nurse assistant 81,148 retail sales 81,3 teacher assistant 81,3 102,42 10,99 140,201 maximum affordable home price not exceeding 30% gross income by occcuaption bank telller police officer middle school teacher registered nurse 197,2 201 average existing home price 22,993 201 average new home price 29,038 Occupation Childcare Nursing Assistant Retail Sale person Teacher Assistant Bank Teller Police officer Middle School Teacher Registered Nurse yearly wage ($) monthly income ($) Median Household Income (Wilmington MSA): $48,700 30% of income ($) purchase price ($) % down payment ($) approximate loan amount ($) 19,301 1,09 488 7,19 3,30 3,83 23,320 1,943 83 81,148 4,07 77,091 24,700 2,08 18 81,3 4,083 77,70 24,740 2,02 18 81,3 4,302 81,739 29,470 2,4 737 102,48,127 97,421 30,40 2,38 72 10,99,300 100, 40,290 3,38 1007 140,201 7,010 133,191,800 4,733 1420 197,2 9,883 187,79 19 Assuming a 9% conventional 30-year mortgage interest rate of 4.%, the table above shows the monthly payment covering principal and interest only for various loan amounts. Data source from the ACS, the BLS, and the NLIHC 201 Out of Reach report. 201 to 2017 home data source NC Regional MLS as from Jan 1, 201 to June 1, 2017.
# Sold # Sold # Sold 1,373 1,21 7 473 407 31 78 90 1,191 1333 $7,000 to $12,000 118 Monthly Home Supply # Sold 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 7 922 9 1,4 7 1,92 1,77 4 3 2,237 2,7 2,027 2,11 1,83 1,70 1,477 18 1,284 1,02 1,321 1,01 1,349 930 11 1,314 881 9 1,30 1,1 1,90 7 7 1,372 117 99 $12,000 to $17,000 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 391 9 1,073 11 40 8 1,289 10 1,73 7 7 2 98 3 2,299 2 4 3 1,274 7 14 11 11 20 1 14 1 14 1 1 1 12 13 8 9 7 7 1,93 2,187 2,097 $17,000 to $22,000 8 7 1,48 1,713 3 2017 Monthly Supply 3 4 1,778 0.7 months 2017 Monthly Supply 1.7 months 2017 Monthly Supply 2.4 months 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 20
New Construction Building Permits: A Possible Leading Indicator of Future Construction The following analysis is based on permit data of single-family homes in Pender County, New Hanover County, and Brunswick County, NC (Wilmington Area), North Carolina (State) and the United States (National). 113 182 The United States finished 201 with 70,79 permits an increase of 8% above its level one year ago of 9,998 permits. It is currently 80% higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of 418,498 permits and currently % below its 200 peak permit level of 1,81,9. 1198 123 1333 141 103 1379 The state of North Carolina 201 permit level was 43,7 which was 4,738 more permits or 12% above its level one year ago. Since reaching a low of 24,83 permits in 2011, it is currently 49% below its 200 peak permit level of 84,97 and % higher than its 2011 recession-era permit bottom level. 9 3 7 77 8 83 980 70 The Wilmington area 201 permit level was 3,7 which was % or 178 permits below its level one year ago of 3,934. The Wilmington area is 131% higher than its 2010 recession-era permit bottom permit level of 1,71 and is 1% below its peak permit level in 200 of 7,8. 71 7 18 21 3 9 39 442 2 473 2 418 2 30 3 3 39 44 2,73 3, 4,290,27,81 7,8,20 4,998 2,971 1,844 1,71 1,2 3,13 3,13 3,407 3,934 3,7 Permit Level 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 21 Wilmington Area Permit # State Permit # (1000s) National Permit # (1000s) data source from WCFHBA & U.S. Census Bureau
Brunswick County A total of 2,00 residential building permits, 3% of the Wilmington area total, were issued in Brunswick County in 201. The bulk of these (480 or 24%) were issued in Leland in northern Brunswick County. The 201 permit level is 11% or 244 permits below its level one year ago and 12% higher than its 2010 recession-era bottom of 892 permits. New Hanover County A total of 1,22 permits, 33% of the Wilmington area total, were issued in New Hanover County, with the bulk of these (372 or 30%) being issued for construction in the City of Wilmington. The 201 permit level is 9 percent or 103 permits greater than its level one year ago and 19% higher than its 2010 recession-era bottom of 473 permits. Pender County A total of 2 permits, 14% of the Wilmington area total, were issued in Pender County, with the bulk of these (98 or 22%) being issued for construction in Surf City. The 201 permit level is 7% or 37 permits below its level one year ago and 323% higher than its 2009 recessionera bottom of 124 permits. Permit Level Permit Level Permit Level 9 2 1,319 9 2 401 9 2 892 473 943 482 1,22 1,04 1,43 1,482 9 3 1,99 9 3 982 9 3 2,249 State Permit # (1000s) County Permit # 1,123 2,00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 124 2 2 20 2 237 30 323 388 430 2 1,22 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 2 2 2 30 30 2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 201 3 3 3 39 39 39 44 44 44 data source from WCFHBA & U.S. Census Bureau 22
Permit Distribution By County Pender 11% 22% New Hanover Pender 7% 72% Brunswick 42% New Hanover Pender 14% 47% Brunswick 2013 2009 These charts depicts the percentage distribution of permits by county at three points in time, viz., 2009 (the last year of that recession), 2013 (early recovery year) and 201 (more than seven years following the end of that recession) are shown in the respective pie charts. Brunswick County accounted for 72% of all Wilmington in 2009, 47% in 2013, and 3% in 201. New Hanover County accounted for 22% of all Wilmington Area Permits in 2009, 42% in 2013, and 33% in 201, while Pender County accounted for 7% of all Wilmington Area Permits in 200 and 11% in 2009 and 14% in 201. Thus, compared to both Brunswick and New Hanover Counties, Pender County gained market share between 2009 and 201. 33% New Hanover 3% Brunswick 201 23 data source from WCFHBA & U.S. Census Bureau
New Home Average Sale Price Brunswick County In 201 the Brunswick County average new home sales price increased $822 to $24,934 over the 201 new home price of $24,112, an modest increase of 0.3%. Since reaching a low home sales price of $231,827 in 2012, it is currently $8,08 below its 2007 peak price of $24,848 and $23,107 higher than its 2012 recession-era bottom. It is $10,8 or 4% above the 201 average existing home sales price of $244,3 for Brunswick County. Average Sales Price 282 277 272 21 23 244 243 233 227 229 223 219 203,2 234,71 24,848 23,88 239,41 244,71 233,279 231,827 241,93 28,499 24,112 24,934 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 Exisiting Home Sale Price ($1000s) New Home Sale Price ($) New Hanover County In 201 New Hanover County average new home sales price increased $24,843 to $30,71 over the 201 home price of $32,727, a 7% increase. Since reaching a low sales price of $28,473 in 2011, it is currently $3,043 below its 2007 peak price of $38,14 and $82,098 higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of $28,473. It is $71,174 or 2% above the 201 average existing home sales price of $279,39 for New Hanover County. Average Sales Price 31 299 281 292 279 273 23 2 22 28 247 242 300,238 342,82 38,14 323,7 301,13 279,91 28,472 28,37 307,02 313,187 32,728 30,70 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 Pender County In 201 Pender County average new home sales price increased $12,930 to $287,94 over the 201 home price of $27,03, a 4% increase. Since reaching a low sales price of $239,498 in 2011, it is currently $30,823 below its 2007 peak price of $318,787 and $48,47 higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom of $239,498. It is $32,347 or 13% above the 201 average existing home sales price of $2,17 for Pender County. Average Sales Price 218 228,82 2 29 287,29 318,787 229 293,407 234 287,194 209 20,79 219 220 239,498 242,018 224 243,149 240 21,212 24 27,03 2 287,94 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1 1 data source from Regional MLS 200-201 24
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in partnership with WILMINGTON CAPE FEAR HOME BUILDERS ASSOCIATION The Wilmington Cape Fear Home Builders Association (WCFHBA) is the voice of the building and development industries in Southeastern North Carolina. w. www.wcfhba.com p. a. 910.799.211 3801- Wrightsville Avenue., Wilmington, NC 28403 Chartered in 19 and representing nearly 900 member-firms, the WCFHBA is the largest trade association in Coastal North Carolina and the third largest Home Builder Association in the state. The Wilmington-Cape Fear Home Builders Association represents an industry that contributes billions of dollars to the economy of Southeastern North Carolina and supports thousands of jobs in the greater Wilmington area. For more than 0 years, the Wilmington- Cape Fear Home Builders Association has been the voice of the building industry, working to support not only our members involved in the home building industry, but also be an influential force for responsible growth by protecting property rights and the privilege of home ownership.
Our Mission: To support and enhance the individual and corporate careers of our members. Cape Fear REALTORS (CFR) is a not-for-profit 01(c)() corporation that was created on June 2, 1924. It has grown tremendously in the past 90+ years. Presently, CFR serves more than 2,400+ REALTORS and members in Southeastern North Carolina. We strive to be the premier resource for technology, services and information for REALTORS in our region so that they may better serve their clients. CFR serves the interests of the public by: Promoting private property rights. Monitoring and proposing regulation and legislation to ensure the availability and affordability of insurance for both residential and commercial property owners Work with the National Association of REALTORS, the North Carolina Association of REALTORS and the NC Real Estate Commission to promote ethically and legally sound representation for the consumer. Our diverse membership is comprised of REALTORS and Business Partners with the professional expertise to meet your real estate needs, whether it s your first home, a residential or commercial rental, or a commercial property for sale. Our REALTOR Members adhere to a strict Code of Ethics, which maintains that a high standard of conduct will be met in all activities. REALTORS in the Cape Fear Region of NC are an effective voice for real estate, protecting your right to own, transfer and use real property. Our effective legislative program benefits all property owners at all levels of government. As a result of this Association s involvement in the legislative arena, property owners benefit from an environment that cherishes one of our inherent real property rights. 201 ECONOMIC CLIMATE REPORT ADDRESS: 182 Sir Tyler Drive, Suite 100, Wilmington, NC 2840 PHONE: 910.72.7400 FAX: 910.72.980