RESIDENTIAL MARKET REPORT SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RESIDENTIAL MARKET - VICTORIA The established house and vacant land markets have remained buoyant through to the September quarter 2016. The vacant land market recorded 5,390 lot sales in September quarter 2016 (+9.1% from September quarter 2015). The median land price across the combined growth corridors reached $228,000 in the September quarter 2016 representing growth of 2.8% from the previous quarter and a higher 8.6% from the September quarter 2015. While broad growth was largely recorded across each of the corridors, there have been suburbs/areas that has seen significant growth over the September quarter 2016 (i.e.: 20% in Tarneit from the previous year). These price pressures have occurred due to demand outstripping supply which has been hampered by the stagnation of the approval of a number of PSPs. ECONOMIC UPDATE The cash rate is currently at a historical low of 1.50%. Both the consumer sentiment and business confidence indicator suggests optimism moving forward with both groups looking beyond short term uncertainties. The Victorian economy has continued to strengthen with improving labour market conditions. Population growth in Victoria remains the strongest amongst all other states and territories with the addition of 38,808 people during the March quarter 2016 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,039,078 people. FINANCE AND BUILDING ACTIVITY - VICTORIA Improving state economic conditions and historically low borrowing costs has led to owner occupier demand strengthening through 2015/16. Over 2015/16, total dwellings (new and established) financed increased by 14.3% from the corresponding period a year earlier with the addition of 183,712 dwellings financed. 36,364 detached homes were approved over the twelve months to September 2016 - up 7.7% from the corresponding period a year earlier, but still below the peak of 39,289 detached homes in 2009/10. $ $ Land Market State Employment State Unemployment State Population Finance Activity Building Approvals
VACANT LAND MARKET - VICTORIA GROSS SALES The number of land sales recorded by the RPM Research Division over the past two years reflects an exceptionally strong market. Sales peaked at approximately 5,500 lots in the June quarter 2016, with another 5,390 lots selling in the September quarter 2016. This result reflects an increase of 9.1% from the September quarter 2015. LAND PRICES AND LOT SIZES The median land price across the growth corridors in Greater Melbourne was $228,000 in the September quarter 2016, representing growth of 2.8% from the previous quarter and a higher 8.6% from the September quarter 2015. With the exception of Melton and Mitchell, all other growth regions experienced annual price growth in the September quarter 2016, with double digit rises occurring in Cardinia, Whittlesea and Wyndham. Changes in land price become more relevant when compared to lots sizes. The median lot size across the growth corridors of Greater Melbourne was 424sqm in the September quarter 2016, slightly smaller than the same quarter in the previous year (429sqm). Melton and Mitchell witnessed the largest decreases in median lot size, which is likely to have led the contraction in land prices in both regions. Overall, Casey recorded the highest median at $249,900 (430sqm), while Mitchell recorded the lowest at $177,000 at September 2016 through the Greater Melbourne growth corridors. In addition, the largest median lot size was recorded in Mitchell at 480sqm, with the lowest being 400sqm in the Wyndham and Whittlesea. Interestingly, the Surf Coast recorded the highest median lot price overall at $251,000 which reflects change over type buyer the market attracts. Gross Sales 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sep 16 SOUTH EASTERN CORRIDOR Median Land Price $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Sep 16 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 Median Lot Size (sqm) Casey (RHS) Cardinia (RHS) Casey (LHS) Cardinia (LHS) WESTERN CORRIDOR Median Land Price 460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 380 370 Wyndham (RHS) Melton (RHS) Wyndham (LHS) Melton (LHS) NORTHERN CORRIDOR Median Land Price $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Source: RPM Research Division Sep 16 Hume (RHS) Mitchell (RHS) Whittlesea (RHS) Hume (LHS) Mitchell (LHS) Whittlesea (LHS) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Median Lot Size (sqm) Median Lot Size (sqm) GREATER GEELONG & SURF COAST Median Land Price $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sep 16 Median Lot Size (sqm) Geelong (RHS) Geelong (LHS) Surf Coast (RHS) Surf Coast (LHS) Source: RPM Research Division
PRICE PRESSURES The suburbs/regions in the chart below all achieved double digit median land price growth for sales of 400sqm blocks from the September quarter 2015 to the September quarter 2016, ranging from 10% in Clyde North to 20% in Tarneit. Strengthening new house demand, attributed to robust population growth and interstate and overseas investors, has resulted in lot absorption escalating and outpacing new lot supply across these growth corridors. While new lot releases in existing estates have not been able to keep up with demand, total supply has also been impacted by the slow addition of new estates, hampered by the delayed completion of Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs). This in turn has applied upward pressure to land prices and subsequently resulted in the sizeable median land price growth. Aside from demand outstripping supply, price growth has also been exacerbated by the timeframes around titled lots being pushed out from the six to nine month mark a year ago to the twelve to fifteen month mark that is currently being witnessed across the greenfield corridors. As a result, without additional supply coming on to the market in reasonable time, the price growth that has been recorded in the suburbs/areas in the chart below will continue to increase over the next twelve months with growth potential of double digit percentages again. Median Land Price for Sales of 400sqm Blocks $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 +20% +19% +11% +17% +10% +13% $0 Tarneit Rockbank Donnybrook Rd Wollert Clyde North Officer Sept Qtr 2015 Sept Qtr 2016 Source: RPM Research Division
NEWS AND UPDATES Victorian Planning Authority Updates In September, the Casey Central Town Centre PSP was approved. Once complete, the region will provide over 4,100 jobs and house an estimated 5,100 people in 2,300 dwellings. The Quarry Hills Precinct Structure Plan (PSP), located Epping/ Wollert was approved in October. It is envisaged that this PSP will contain more than 2,300 dwellings and house approximately 6,600 people. Also approved in October (and ahead of schedule) was the 752 hectare Rockbank PSP which includes more than 8,000 homes and is anticipated to house more than 22,000. Also released in October was the VPAs 2016/17 work program. This includes the VPA greenfield priority projects; Project Name LGA Status Completion Total Estimated Date Dwellings Population Cardinia Road Corridor (Review) Cardinia Pre-Planning Dec-17 - - McPherson (Clyde East) Casey Commenced Dec-17 10,000 28,300 Brompton Lodge Casey Post Consultation Oct-16 1,484 4,156 Casey Town Centre Casey Post Consultation Dec-17 2,320 5,120 Croskell (Casey Central) - Retail Casey Pre-Planning Dec-19 - - Minta Farm Casey Pre-Planning Dec-17 3,000 9,000 Lancefield Road (Sunbury East) Hume Commenced Dec-17 7,000 20,000 Sunbury South Hume Commenced Dec-17 10,000 28,000 Lindum Vale (Mt Ridley West) Hume Pre-Planning Dec-17 1,500 Kororoit (Part 1) Melton Commenced Jun-17 9,200 25,875 Kororoit (Part 2) (Regional Park) Melton Commenced Dec-17 - - Mt Atkinson Melton Commenced Jun-17 7,200 20,000 Plumpton Melton Commenced Jun-17 10,400 29,000 Tarneit Plains (employments) Melton Commenced Jun-17 - - Beveridge Central Mitchell Pre-Planning Sep-17 2,500 7,000 Beveridge North West Mitchell Public Consultation Mar-18 11,290 31,611 Donnybrook/Woodstock Whittlesea Post Consultation Mar-17 16,400 46,000 Wollert Whittlesea Post Consultation Mar-17 13,504 37,811 INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRIBUTION PLAN (ICP) In October, the state Government introduced a standard ICP for Melbourne greenfield growth areas. Metropolitan Class of development Community Transport Public land Total Levy Area and recreation construction Rate construction All amounts in $ per net developable hectare South-East Area Residential development $87,500 $112,500 $139,000 $339,000 Commercial and industrial $0 $112,500 $46,000 $158,500 development North and West Areas Residential development $87,500 $112,500 $128,500 $328,500 Commercial and industrial $0 $112,500 $42,500 $155,000 development According to the UDIA, these charges reflect a 50% increase from the average development charges that were in play in July 2015.
RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES Property prices in Melbourne have trended upwards since the middle of 2013, with detached houses achieving stronger growth than units. The established housing market to date remains robust when compared to other states with roughly 26,500 auctions held in Victoria over the first nine months of 2016 with a clearance rate of 74% (REIV). Nevertheless, the number of auction sales from January to September 2016 is 9.9% lower than the corresponding period a year earlier, where the clearance rate was 76% (REIV). At September 2016 preliminary data recorded; - House prices rose to a median of $740,000 (+2.9% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) - Unit prices rose to a median of $545,000 (+3.0% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) - Land prices rose to a median of $228,000 (+8.6% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) The 8.6% growth achieved in the land market in the September quarter takes into account all growth corridors of Melbourne. The overall gain consists of corridors recording rates of between -6.3% (Melton) to 16.1% (Cardinia) which is largely dictated by the fundamentals of supply and demand for land in the corridor. MELBOURNE PRICES Melbourne Prices Median house and apartment price $800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 $740,000 $228,000 $545,000 Sep 16 $235,000 $225,000 $215,000 $205,000 $195,000 $185,000 $175,000 Median land price Melb House Price (LHS) Melb Unit Price (LHS) Melb Land Price (RHS) Source: REIV, RPM Research Division AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE PER PERIOD Ave. annual % change 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 6.0% 6.2% 5.5% 5.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0% 1.5% 12 months 2 years 5 years 10 years Melbourne House Price Melbourne Unit Price Melbourne Land Price Source: REIV, RPM Research Division
ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE Economic activity continues to show improvement on the back of a buoyant residential real estate industry. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the June quarter 2016 increased by 0.5% from the March quarter 2016 and by an annual 2.92% over 2015/16 from the previous year. This strong level of economic growth resulted in Victoria experiencing annual growth of 4.2% in the number of employed persons at August 2016. Moreover, the unemployment rate at August 2016 of 5.5% was under the national rate (5.7%). The Victorian economy has continued to strengthen in recent years with annual State Final Demand for 2015/16 increasing by a solid 4.0% from the previous $ year. This places Victoria ahead of all other states and territories with New South Wales second with a growth rate of 3.7%. Dwelling Investment Victorian State Economy Employment INTEREST RATE The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points in both May and August of 2016, and with no other changes in following meetings, the cash rate is currently at a historical low of 1.50%. This should assist in lifting consumer and business confidence, which then should drive demand across a broader range of sectors. The official standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers sits at 5.25% (with investor loans at 5.50%). However, with some bargaining owner occupiers can obtain a discounted interest rate of 4.50% (investors can obtain 4.75%) from the major lenders. The RBA has decided to leave the cash rate unchanged in recent meetings on the back of continued below expectation growth at the national level and modest inflationary pressures. Furthermore, leading economist and major banks are factoring in at least one more rate cut in the next three to four months as the belief is that the market will require additional stimulus. A leading indicator of when an interest rate cut might occur will largely depend on retail sales in the lead up to Christmas. 1.50% 5.25% 4.50% 4.40% % 3 yr - Cash Rate (Nov-16) Standard Variable Rate (Oct-16) Discounted Variable Rate (Oct-16) 3 Year Fixed Rate (Oct-16)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely quoted barometer of consumer sentiment in Australia. A score of greater than 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists, with readings of below 100 indicating that pessimistic consumers are in the majority. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has increased steadily in each of the three months to September 2016 to 101.4 (+2.3%). This suggests that an upward trend in consumer sentiment is coming through, despite some volatility in both the domestic and international economy. Index = 100 115.0 110.0 105.0 101.4 100.0 95.0 90.0 BUSINESS CONFIDENCE NAB s Business Confidence Survey has been tracking Australian business confidence levels for more than two decades. Businesses are approached each quarter, with two smaller monthly surveys conducted in the intervening months to capture changes on a more regular basis. The panel now exceeds 2,700 businesses. The September result indicated a recovery of business conditions, after the Brexit decision and the Federal election caused sentiment to weaken in the preceding three months. The business conditions index rose to +6.7 points in September 2016, attributed to lower borrowing costs after many business lending rates were reduced during August 2016. This result also suggests that organisations are looking beyond the uncertainties. 15.0 85.0 10.0 +6.7 80.0 Sep 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 NAB Index 5.0 0.0 Source: Westpac 5.0 10.0 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Source: NAB VICTORIAN POPULATION Victoria gained 38,808 people during the March quarter 2016 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,039,078 people. Victoria s estimated population growth over the twelve months to March 2016 of 114,865 people or 1.94%, were both the strongest amongst all states and territories. people 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 2,500 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Natural Increase Net overseas migration Net interestate migration Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Source: ABS, RPM Research Division
POPULATION COMPONENTS A breakdown of the three components of population growth shows that in the March quarter 2016 Victoria recorded; Natural Increase + Interstate Migration Overseas Migration -3.4% + 48.6% + 7.6% +37,551 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 +14,529 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 +62,785 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 FINANCE ACTIVITY - VICTORIA LOANS BY DWELLING TYPE Improving state economic conditions and historically low borrowing costs has led to owner occupier demand strengthening through 2015/16. This is highlighted by total number of dwellings financed in the June quarter 2016 increasing by 17.9% from the previous corresponding quarter with the addition of 48,990 dwellings financed. Over the course of 2015/16, total dwellings financed increased by 14.3% from the corresponding period a year earlier with the addition of 183,712 dwellings financed. More specifically, newly constructed dwellings and recently constructed dwellings (but have not been lived in) increased by 16.8% from the previous corresponding quarter in 2015 with the addition of 7,966 dwellings. Over the course of 2015/16, newly constructed dwellings increased by 8% with the addition of 29,071 dwellings. No. of new dwellings 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 No. of established dwellings new dwelling purchase of established dwellings source: ABS Source: ABS, RPM Research Division VALUE OF WORK DONE The total value of owner occupier loans in June quarter 2016 was a sizeable 23.1% higher than the previous corresponding quarter and by 27.3% over the 2015/16 period. Conversely, the total value of loans to investors in the June quarter 2016 declined by 12.6% compared to the June quarter 2015, as a result of tighter lending restrictions to investor purchasers. As a result, the value of investor finance in 2015/16 was 11.4% total value of loan by type ($b) $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Owner Occupier Investor Source: ABS, RPM Research Division below 2014/15.
NUMBER OF LOANS TO FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON- FIRST HOME BUYERS The number of loans attributed to FHBs reached 7,415 loans over the June quarter 2016 an increase of 12% from the June quarter 2015. Dwellings financed to non-fhbs recorded 41,575 loans over the June quarter 2016 up by a more significant 19% on the same quarter in the previous years. No. of loans 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 23% 20% 18% 15% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% % share of FHBs Although FHB activity has increased, their overall share remains at a historical low (15% of total loans) which highlights the affordability constraints that are present. 0 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 FHB Loans Non FHB Loans Share of FHBs Source: ABS, RPM Research Division 0% AVERAGE LOAN SIZE FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON- FIRST HOME BUYERS The average loan size to both FHBs and non-fhbs have both edged higher over the June quarter 2016, rising by 2% and 5% respectively from the June quarter 2015. The divergence between the average loan amount to FHBs and non-fhbs began widening through 2014, and has expanded further since 2015. At June 2016, the average loan size attributed to a non-fhb was $50,267 above the average loan size to FHBs ($368,067). Nevertheless, the average loan size to non-fhb s is down by 7.5% from its peak of $389,133 in the December 2015 quarter, which can largely be explained by the tighter lending criteria to investors. Average loan size ($) $400,000 $375,000 $350,000 $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 FHBs Average loan size Non FHBs Average loan size Source: ABS, RPM Research Division
BUILDING ACTIVITY - VICTORIA APPROVALS New detached home building approvals in the September quarter 2016 recorded 9,748 dwellings, which was highest quarterly total since the September quarter 2010. This most recent result reinstates the buoyant new home building market. In total, 18,013 dwellings were approved for construction in the September quarter 2016, equating to a gain of 4.5% from the previous corresponding quarter. Over the twelve months to September 2016, 36,364 detached homes were approved which reflect an increase of 7.7% from the same period a year earlier. Interestingly, even though there has been a large amount of media talk about a potential oversupply of apartments, a further 5,689 dwellings were approved in the September quarter 2016 which reflects a 12.9% increase over the quarter. Nevertheless, over the course of the twelve months to September 2016, a 20.5% decline was recorded when compared to the same time a year earlier. No. of approvals 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Aug 16 Detached Houses Townhouses Apartments Source: ABS, RPM Research Division COMMENCEMENTS The HIA has estimated that detached houses will finish the 2015/16 financial year at 34,390 starts some 6.2% up from 2014/15. Over the same period, multi-unit dwellings is estimated to have ended at 34,950 dwellings up by 6.6%. Overall, total dwellings starts are estimated to have increased by 6.4% over 2015/16 to 69,340 dwellings, with this figure likely to be cyclical peak. Over the three year forecast period, the HIA estimates detached house starts will fall to an annual average of 29,773 dwellings which would reflect a 13.4% fall from the 2015/16 outcome. More prominent is the estimate that multi-unit starts are expected to fall to an average of 21,080 dwellings per annum, which reflects a 39.4% fall from 2015/16. Even though commencements are anticipated to retract over the next three years they are likely to remain at acceptable levels. 80,000 70,000 Houses Multi units FORECAST 60,000 No. of dwellings 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 e 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Source: HIA, RPM Research Division Although all care has been taken in the preparation of this report, the RPM Real Estate Group Pty Ltd take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.