CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions

CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions CBER and Lied Institute Report Volume 62, 1st, Housing Markets Conditions in 1 st Beginning with this issue of the CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions, we will no longer include the boxplots for the distributions of house size in square feet, sales price, square foot price, and total mortgage value. Instead, we are including information that better represents the state residential real estate market. The new figures are the MLS-listed inventory and median list price of existing condominium and townhouse units, the percent of existing condominium and townhouse units sold by time on market, and inventory ratios and number of sales for both single-family residential and condominium and townhouse units. We will continue to publish the reports on both the CBER and Lied Institute websites. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Center for Business and Economic Research Nasser Daneshvary, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies Housing Units and Vacancies in the Greater Las Vegas Area, by Housing Type: Q1 Type of Housing Unit a Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area b Estimated Vacant Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Vacancy Rate (%) MLS Listings in the Greater Las Vegas Area c Vacant MLS Listings c MLS Vacancy Rate (%) c Single-family detached 477,387 47,370 9.9% 18,988 8,951 47.1% Condominium 84,453 13,961 16.5% 2,197 1,230 56.0% Townhouse 39,838 4,066 10.2% 1,380 720 52.2% Apartment 169,331 22,588 13.3% - - - Total 771,009 87,985 11.4% 22,565 10,901 48.3% Note: We recently changed how the data are reported in the table. These figures represent a revision in the base data from 2010 to, and are not directly comparable to the data previously reported. Calculations of the estimated units and vacant units are based on meter counts from NV Energy. a Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units. b Unit counts provided by Clark County, Nevada Population Estimates. c Multiple Listing Service data provided by Residential Resources. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 1

Permits: A Future Market Indicator 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 1st, Total: 1,342 2nd, Total: 1,848 3rd, Total: 1,063 4th, Total: 1,103 1st, Total: 1,680 Commercial Units 68 64 59 44 62 Multifamily Units 412 562 103 171 539 Single-Family Units 862 1,222 901 888 1,079 1,200 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1st, Total: 1,274 2nd, Total: 1,784 3rd, Total: 1,004 4th, Total: 1,059 1st, Total: 1,618 Res Building Permits 469 1,037 442 407 510 City of Las Vegas 173 280 184 291 224 City of North Las Vegas 99 140 159 116 94 Henderson 500 284 176 227 206 Boulder City 1 2 0 0 5 Mesquite 32 41 43 18 40 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 2

Single-Family Housing Market: Details MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 2 22,000 $130,500 21,500 21,000 20,500 $129,000 20,000 19,500 $127,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 October November December January February March Available units (left axis) 21,478 20,818 19,230 19,160 18,870 18,200 Median list price (right axis) $129,000 $128,800 $128,500 $129,000 $129,900 $130,000 $126,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 2 100% 90% 17.4% 19.5% 20.1% 20.9% 20.2% 20.5% 80% 70% 60% 8.4% 14.3% 8.5% 8.7% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 13.3% 12.8% 13.1% 13.7% 12.3% 50% 21.3% 20.0% 20.2% 19.9% 19.1% 19.2% 40% 30% 20% 38.6% 38.7% 38.1% 36.7% 38.0% 39.6% 10% 0% October November December January February March 0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 3

Single-Family Housing Market: Details Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 1 st, 2 89143 89085 89087 89165 89166 89131 89084 89086 Number of Sales Q1 89149 0-25 89130 89031 89081 26-76 89138 89129 89134 89128 89144 89145 89117 89135 89147 89032 89030 89108 89106 89107 89101 89104 89146 89102 89109 89169 89121 89103 89115 89156 89110 89142 89122 89124 77-151 152-201 202-251 252-401 89161 89148 89113 89118 89119 89120 89014 89011 89004 89139 89123 89074 89015 89178 89012 89183 89002 89179 89141 89052 89005 89044 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 4

Single-Family Housing/Condos & Townhouses Market: Details * Inventory Ratios and Number of Single-Family Residential Units Sold 2 ** 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 October November December January February Absorption rate 6.89 6.59 5.56 6.54 6.18 5.15 March No. of units sold 3,118 3,159 3,456 2,931 3,053 3,534 New listings to sales 1.29 1.14 0.92 1.37 1.18 1.08 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Inventory Ratios and Number of Condominium & Townhouse Units Sold 2 ** 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 October November December January February Absorption rate 5.98 6.08 5.11 6.26 5.42 4.57 No. of units sold 763 724 794 660 741 854 New listings to sales 1.23 1.16 0.93 1.45 1.15 1.09 March 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 *All condominium and townhouse entities consist of 1-4 units. **Data are not seasonally adjusted. Note: The figures display a graphical presentation of the inventory movements. The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of listings at the end of the month by the number of units sold during the same month. The absorption rate can be interpreted as the number of months needed to deplete the inventory if no more units are listed and if the number of units sold stays the same. The new listings to sales ratio is calculated by dividing the number of new listings in a month by the number of units sold during the same month. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 5

Condominium & Townhouse Market: Details MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Condo & Townhouse Units 2 4,700 $65,010 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 $64,990 $64,970 $64,950 $64,930 $64,910 $64,890 $64,870 3,800 October November December January February March Available units (left axis) 4,563 4,399 4,061 4,133 4,016 3,901 Median list price (right axis) $64,900 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $64,850 Percent Existing Condo & Townhouse Units Sold by Time on Market 2 100% 90% 15.9% 16.9% 16.4% 18.0% 19.3% 17.3% 80% 70% 7.6% 6.8% 7.3% 6.1% 13.8% 10.5% 12.6% 12.6% 6.7% 12.8% 5.0% 11.0% 60% 50% 22.7% 25.4% 20.8% 21.1% 20.6% 19.2% 40% 30% 20% 40.1% 40.5% 42.9% 42.3% 40.5% 47.4% 10% 0% October November December January February March 0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 6

Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Apartment Market Details Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 4 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES AVERAGE RATES UNITS Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed Rent Vacancy Total Units Vacant Units 89002... 706. 760. 993. 1147 873 8.0% 354 28 89005... 613. 713... 900 710 9.4% 417 39 89011... 802. 887. 938. 1031 909 7.6% 887 68 89012... 764. 1015. 918. 1103 906 9.2% 1943 178 89014. 536. 668. 759. 804. 989 801 9.1% 5626 511 89015... 613. 706. 725. 827 727 8.6% 2488 215 89030. 363. 503. 514. 636. 702 602 9.7% 2349 227 89031....... 802. 957 880 12.4% 1084 135 89032. 658. 687... 811. 945 799 8.4% 2217 186 89052... 813. 1025. 1008. 1205 964 9.3% 2666 248 89074... 773... 906. 1104 881 9.1% 2758 252 89081... 672. 817. 790. 957 817 14.0% 1540 216 89084... 694. 709. 882. 1079 841 9.3% 580 54 89086... 683. 785. 830. 966 819 8.8% 1107 97 89101 543 444 598 512. 616 820 650. 734 554 13.2% 9793 1294 89102. 521 589 556. 632 709 701. 779 631 10.9% 9019 986 89103. 580 663 624 798 696 763 768. 868 710 9.2% 6699 615 89104 397 409 450 490. 595. 655. 749 560 13.8% 3176 439 89106 659 390 759 527. 547. 708. 856 637 12.4% 4164 518 89107. 490. 559. 631. 697. 831 640 8.6% 2728 235 89108. 539. 618. 645. 750. 903 722 9.5% 8764 837 89109 668 495 801 519. 581. 697. 728 619 12.5% 2778 347 89110... 559. 597. 652. 813 654 10.7% 3819 409 89113... 819... 1052. 1146 959 10.0% 901 90 89115 520 470 699 517. 548. 599. 709 588 10.4% 5952 616 89117... 731. 833. 860. 1046 863 8.9% 7883 699 89118. 530. 701. 698. 870. 1021 805 7.2% 2736 198 89119 600 511 647 599 700 596. 751. 879 680 11.7% 13472 1576 89120. 544. 607. 687. 744. 906 727 8.4% 2217 187 89121. 497 809 580. 648. 695. 809 667 9.8% 6864 674 89122 510. 723 620 996 727. 750. 889 725 8.9% 4946 439 89123. 614. 755. 1105. 887. 1077 866 8.0% 4402 351 89128... 690... 777. 921 799 9.6% 2390 230 89129. 644. 662. 999 865 824. 1090 804 9.2% 1930 177 89130... 554... 677. 877 724 8.1% 624 51 89131... 705... 842. 1075 834 5.1% 347 18 89135... 908... 1146. 1204 1073 8.0% 412 33 89138... 1038. 1113. 1233. 1400 1196 9.9% 1362 135 89139... 835... 993. 1190 969 9.9% 1385 137 89141... 835. 980. 1255. 1370 1073 10.0% 340 34 89142... 569. 599. 661. 782 649 10.1% 1646 166 89144... 881... 1069. 1283 1127 9.1% 480 44 89145... 740. 737. 931. 1107 950 9.0% 1073 97 89146. 410. 628. 591. 759. 926 740 9.9% 2261 223 89147... 754. 875. 901. 1044 899 8.0% 3130 250 89148... 829. 1025. 973. 1024 934 9.8% 1839 181 89149. 655. 812. 899. 1067. 926 926 9.0% 1842 166 89156... 604... 705. 0 685 11.0% 999 110 89166... 743. 820. 957. 0 888 9.8% 144 14 89169 642 450 717 506. 585. 651. 0 606 9.5% 9151 872 89183... 761. 855. 870. 0 877 9.3% 3306 309 METRO LV 568 507 686 645 865 681 794 797. 948 746 9.9% 160990 15864 * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 7

Apartment Market Details Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 4 89143 89085 89087 89165 89166 89149 89131 89084 89086 Rent Q1 89130 89031 89081 Data suppressed 89129 89115 1-650 89124 89138 89134 89144 89135 89128 89145 89117 89147 89032 89030 89108 89106 89107 89101 89104 89146 89102 89109 89169 89121 89103 89156 89110 89142 89122 651-750 751-850 851-950 951-1200 89161 89148 89113 89118 89119 89120 89014 89011 89004 89139 89123 89074 89015 89178 89012 89183 89002 89179 89141 89052 89005 89044 89143 89085 89087 89165 89166 89131 89084 89086 89149 89124 89138 89129 89134 89128 89144 89145 89117 89135 89147 89130 89031 89081 89032 89030 89108 89106 89107 89101 89104 89146 89102 89109 89169 89121 89103 89115 89156 89110 89142 89122 Vacancy Q1 Data suppressed 0.01-9.00 9.01-10.00 10.01-11.00 11.01-12.00 12.01-13.00 89161 89148 89113 89118 89119 89120 89014 89011 13.01-17.00 89004 89139 89123 89074 89015 89178 89012 89183 89002 89179 89141 89052 89005 89044 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 8

Local Population and Unemployment Indicators Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 4 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1st, 2010 2nd, 2010 3rd, 2010 4th, 2010 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, ly 11,919 11,842 14,604 12,783 14,257 14,645 16,450 13,882 16,057 Year-to-Date 11,919 23,761 38,365 51,148 14,257 28,902 45,352 59,234 16,057 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 4 Unemployment 5 Las Vegas Q1 14.2% Q2 14.0% Q3 13.9% Q4 13.5% Q1 12.8% United States Q1 9.0% Q2 9.0% Q3 9.1% Q4 8.7% Q1 8.3% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1st, 2010 2nd, 2010 3rd, 2010 4th, 2010 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Percent from California 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% 30.0% 33.2% 31.5% 30.3% 30.3% 30.6% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% 15.5% 14.4% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 9

Housing Market: Regional Comparisons 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Case-Shiller Index in Selected Western Cities 6 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Las Vegas, NV 98.67 96.72 94.44 90.70 90.39 Phoenix, AZ 102.17 101.47 99.41 99.94 105.80 San Diego, CA 157.62 155.19 152.38 151.19 151.39 Los Angeles, CA 170.78 170.07 167.00 162.83 162.06 ly Change of Case-Shiller Index 6 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Las Vegas, NV -0.81% -1.98% -2.35% -3.96% -0.34% Phoenix, AZ -1.14% -0.69% -2.03% 0.53% 5.86% San Diego, CA -1.04% -1.54% -1.81% -0.78% 0.13% Los Angeles, CA -0.53% -0.42% -1.80% -2.50% -0.47% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 10

National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter Same quarter previous year % change from previous quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits 720 665 559 8.32 28.94 Starts 687 670 582 2.54 18.03 Under construction 444 429 424 3.42 4.63 Completions 571 581 572-1.78-0.23 Manufactured (mobile) home shipments 59 61 45-4.35 29.41 HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold 337 325 299 3.70 12.72 New homes for sale 579 155 182 273.76 218.90 Month's supply of new homes 5 6 7-8.72-28.64 Existing homes sold 4570 4367 4373 4.66 4.50 Existing homes for sale 2367 2560 2983-7.55-20.67 Month's supply of existing homes 6 7 8-11.85-23.77 Median new home price 232200 221100 226900 5.02 2.34 Average new home price 274200 259700 268100 5.58 2.28 Constant house quality new home price 278000 279800 278300-0.64-0.11 Median existing home price 158000 162333 157933-2.67 0.04 Average existing home price 204633 208600 205133-1.90-0.24 Composite housing affordability index 205 197 188 4.26 9.32 Fixed-rate housing affordability index 200 192 186 4.21 7.59 Apartments completed 15500 25100 14900-38.25 4.03 Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months 51 67 64-23.88-20.31 Median asking rent 1277 1078 999 18.46 27.83 Manufactured (mobile) home placements 50 50 43 0.00 17.19 Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) 61600 60900 60167 1.15 2.38 Builders housing market index 27.0 19.0 16.3 42.11 65.31 Builders current sales activity 28.0 19.7 16.3 42.37 71.43 Builders future sales expectations 32.7 24.7 25.0 32.43 30.67 Builders prospective buyer traffic 21.7 15.7 12.0 38.30 80.56 HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year 3.92 4.01 4.85-2.16-19.18 Conventional ARMs 2.77 2.87 3.27-3.48-15.38 Conventional fixed-rate 15 year 3.19 3.30 4.13-3.53-22.84 FHA applications received 162620 121899 125561 33.41 29.51 FHA total endorsements 97837 90002 102301 8.71-4.36 FHA purchase endorsements 55407 58741 56281-5.68-1.55 VA guaranties 43090 39083 29159 10.25 47.78 PMI certificates 25621 24968 18358 2.61 39.57 HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) 15462 15319 14868 0.93 4.00 Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) 361 347 331 4.10 9.10 RFI percent of GDP 2.3 2.3 2.2 3.14 4.91 HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units 132596 132474 132110 0.09 0.37 Occupied units 114122 114086 113111 0.03 0.89 Owner occupied 74601 75315 75092-0.95-0.65 Rental vacancy rate 8.8 9.4 9.7-6.38-9.28 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 11

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Index: January 2000 = 100 Housing Market: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 250 Case-Shiller Home Price Index: January 1987 to April 200 150 U.S. (10-City Composite) Las Vegas long-run 'equilibrium' trend based on Jan 1987 to Sep 2000 100 Las Vegas, NV 50 0 Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.standardandpoors.com/ Sources: 1 Local building permit-issuing agencies. 2 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 3 CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data base on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles. 5 The Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Index Levels - Seasonally Adjusted, April (http://www.standardpoors.com). 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st, (http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/ushmc/ushmc.html). Note: As of the 1st, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Report on Housing-Market Conditions Readers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 12