GIS Analysis of Foreclosures in Catawba County, North Carolina Are We H SERUG Conference April 26, 2010 Presented by: Taylor Dellinger, GISP Western Piedmont Council of Governments
What is the WPCOG?
WPCOG POLICY BOARD 28 Local Governments/28 Delegates Executive Director Administration * Indicates part-time staff 2 / 08 / 07 Planning, Community Development And Data Services Public Services
Western Piedmont Council Of Governments Organization Structure July J 1, 2009 Executive Director Assistant Executive Director ** Administrative Services Manager Finance Director Accounting Technician Workforce Dev. Fiscal Coordinator Accounting Technician Director of Public Services ** Director of Planning, Community Development and Data Services Secretary Secretary Secretary Workforce Development Director Section 8 Housing Director Area Agency on Aging Director Planning Director Transportation Manager Water Quality Administrator Data Center/GIS Manager Community Development Director Workforce Dev. Administrator Section 8 Housing Inspector Family Caregiver Specialist Planner Data Analyst Community Dev. Administrator Community Dev. Administrator Workforce Dev. Program Services Coordinator Section 8 Housing Inspector Aging Specialist Planner GIS Analyst Community Dev. Administrator Community Dev. Administrator Workforce Dev. Program Services Coordinator Section 8 Housing Specialist II Ombudsman Planner GIS Analyst Community Dev. Administrator Community Dev. Administrator Section 8 Housing Specialist II Aging Program Support Planner GIS Analyst Community Dev. Administrator Community Dev. Administrator Section 8 Housing Specialist II GIS Analyst Community Dev. Administrator Environmental Dev. Administrator Section 8 Housing Specialist I Section 8 Housing Specialist I ** Indicates the designation of the Public Services Director as Assistant Executive Director. Indicates periodic project supervisory relationship GIS Technician
Foreclosure Trends, 1998-Present
Hickory MSA Foreclosure Cases, 2000-2009 2009 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,897 1,751 1,834 1,922 1,952 1,943 1,895 1,400 1,200 1,273 1,000 911 800 600 636 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Percentage Change in the Number of Foreclosure Filings by NC MSA, 1998-2007 Asheville Burlington Charlotte Durham Fayetteville 4.6 Goldsboro Greensboro Greenville Hickory Jacksonville Raleigh Rocky Mount Wilmington Winston-Salem North Carolina Non Metro Counties 21.6 84.0 161.1 146.8 145.9 167.0 230.7 211.1 207.9 198.6 264.0 307.1 312.7 350.5 345.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 Source: North Carolina Housing Finance Agency, 2008.
Catawba County Foreclosure Cases, 2000-2009 2009 900 800 850 786 754 821 834 873 886 700 600 500 542 400 379 300 284 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Why the Increase in Foreclosures? Shady lender practices Subprime mortgages People purchasing more house than they can afford Biggest factor in our region seems to be economic conditions
Hickory MSA Employment, 2nd Qtr. 2000-3rd Qtr. 2009 190,000 186,581 180,000 173,644 170,000 165,444 Employment 160,000 150,000 158,244 160,598 157,859 158,670 158,264 152,560 140,000 136,193 130,000 120,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NC MSA Employment Change by Percentage, 2nd Quarter 2000-3 rd Quarter 2009 Asheville Burlington Charlotte Durham Fayetteville Goldsboro Greensboro Greenville Hickory Jacksonville Raleigh Rocky Mount Wilmington Winston-Salem -27.0% -14.6% -11.2% -12.2% -5.5% -4.6% -0.5% 1.5% 3.8% 5.5% 3.4% 11.6% 12.5% 14.4% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Foreclosure Prevention WPCOG is a HUD Certified Mortgage Counseling Agency Each year over 100 families benefit from default counseling services WPCOG is a member of the HOPE Hotline
Foreclosure Prevention Staff administers the Home Protection Program Pays mortgage payments for credit worthy persons receiving TRA/TAA unemployment benefits while they attend community college and upgrade skills Not a grant but a zero interest loan that is repaid in 15 years or if the house is sold
Foreclosure Questions Where specifically are the foreclosures occurring? What possible impacts could foreclosures have on the taxbase? What can we do to target areas with high foreclosures to get assistance to persons who need it?
How do we Answer these Questions? Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to the Rescue!
GIS Software Used in the Analysis ESRI ArcMap 9.2 and later 9.3 ESRI Geostatistical Analyst Extension Hewitt Packard Designjet T1100 Plotter
Methodology (Data Collection) WPCOG staff searched the Catawba County Register of Deeds Records for properties that have completed the foreclosure process between June 2008 and July 2009 (346 records found). The location of each foreclosed property was then geocoded on the map.
Methodology (Data Processing) The model used in the analysis is based on a foreclosure study (The External Costs of Foreclosure: The Impact of Single-Family Mortgage Foreclosures on Property Values) by Dr. Dan Immergluck of Georgia Tech and Dr. Geoff Smith of the Woodstock Institute. The study states that foreclosed homes devalue the selling price of neighboring residential properties within 1/8 of a mile by 0.9% and within ¼ of a mile by 0.325%. Also, homes within 1/8 mile of more than one foreclosure devalue by an extra 1.136% for each neighboring foreclosure.
Methodology (Data Processing) Based on the model WPCOG staff determined all parcels zoned residential that were within 1/8 or ¼ mile of one or more foreclosures. The potential loss of property value was tabulated for each municipality in Catawba County as well as non incorporated areas.
Map Legend
The map shows the exact location of the foreclosed property by value and the potentially impacted parcels surrounding the foreclosure
For each municipality a summary was generated showing the number of foreclosed properties, the number of homes near the the foreclosed properties and the total estimated possible decrease in value. It is important to note that it is a possible decrease in value based on a model and not what will actually happen to the impacted properties when the next reevaluation occurs.
Data was also collected for the unincorporated areas of Catawba County
Findings In FY 2009 foreclosures were spread throughout Catawba county from low income neighborhoods to high-end subdivisions Model results show that 36.9% of homes in Catawba County were potentially impacted by one or more foreclosures within 1/8 to ¼ of their homes. The model calculated a potential total property value loss of $2.94 million
Next Steps WPCOG staff would like to expand to analysis to the other three counties in the region. WPCOG staff would like to take a closer look a correlating social-economic factors or loan-types with the foreclosure data. Due to budget cuts not much data has been collected since June 30, 2009. It will take time and effort to move forward with the project
Foreclosure Outlook
Troubled Signs for the Mortgage Market Pay Option Mortgages could swell the number of foreclosures in Catawba County in 2010-2011. 2011. Two to five years ARMs will continue to reset at higher rates Mortgage Credit Market remains tight Economic problems continue for the region
Questions?