Research & Forecast Report GREATER PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL 2017 Strong Absorption Drives Down to Start 2017 Key Takeaways >> Industrial vacancy in Greater Phoenix dipped below 10 percent in the first quarter, reaching 9.8 percent. The rate has not been in the single digits since late-2007. >> Net absorption totaled more than 2 million square feet during the first quarter, after tenants moved into a net of nearly 2.5 million square feet in the fourth quarter of last year. During the past 12 months, net absorption has totaled more than 6.5 million square feet. >> Asking rents ticked up to $0.56 per square foot, per month in the first quarter, and current rents are 5 percent higher than one year ago. Similar gains are forecast for the remainder of 2017. >> Industrial developers are active in Greater Phoenix, delivering nearly 1.8 million square feet in the first quarter. Construction will continue, with approximately 4.7 million square feet currently under way. >> Sales of industrial buildings rose by 5 percent in the first quarter, and prices ticked up to $75 per square foot. Cap rates rose in the first quarter, averaging 7.7 percent. Greater Phoenix Industrial Market The Greater Phoenix industrial market crossed a significant threshold in the first quarter, with the local vacancy rate dipping below 10 percent for the first time in nearly 10 years. is being driven lower by hearty tenant demand for space, a trend that has been present in the market for the past several years. That demand for industrial space is off to a strong start to 2017, with tenants moving into a net of more than 2 million square feet in the first quarter. Market Indicators Market 2017 Relative to prior period Market Net Absorption Construction Rental Rate First Quarter Economic Trends* Phoenix Metro Employment Phoenix Industrial Uses Employment U.S. Employment U.S. Industrial Uses Employment *Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Summary Statistics Rate Change from (bps) Phoenix Industrial Market 9. -80 Net Absorption (thousands SF) 2,059 New Construction (thousands SF) 1,797 Under Construction (millions SF) 4,773 Asking Rents $0.56 Per Square Foot Per Month Change from 5.0%
Greater Phoenix Industrial Market (continued) Development activity is being ramped up to meet this persistent demand in the market. Approximately 1.8 million square feet of new space was delivered in the first quarter and nearly 5 million square feet has come online during the past year. Additions to inventory should proceed at a fairly consistent pace in the year ahead with about 4.7 million square feet currently under construction. The investment market continued to show strength at the start of this year, building on gains recorded in. Prices have been steady over the past few years, but cap rates trended higher in the first quarter of this year. Interest rates have trended higher particularly during the past nine months and the future direction of interest rates could carryover to cap rates for industrial properties. Recent Transactions in the Market SALE ACTIVITY Property Address Submarket Sale Date Sale Price Size SF Sale Price SF Class 2601 W Broadway Rd., Tempe Southeast 1/26 $16,400,000 44,244 $371 B 4405 W Roosevelt Rd., Phoenix Southwest 3/24 $11,960,000 187,611 $64 B 685 W La Vieve Ln., Tempe Southeast 1/5 $9,500,000 101,641 $93 A LEASE ACTIVITY Property Address Submarket Tenant Size SF 1500 S 71st Ave., Phoenix Tolleson Essendant Companies 261,880 2225 S 43rd Ave., Phoenix SW S of Buckeye Road Enclos 117,780 8591 W Washington St., Tolleson Tolleson Burlington Mattress Company 91,811 Historical Absorption, Deliveries and Rates 10,000,000 1 8,000,000 1 Square Feet 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - (2,000,000) 14% 12% 4% (4,000,000) 2% (6,000,000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017* 0% * Forecast Net Absorption Deliveries 2 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2017 Industrial Colliers International
: > > Industrial vacancy dipped below 10 percent for the first time in nearly a decade during the first quarter, reaching 9.8 percent. is down 80 basis points during the past 12 months. > > Robust absorption in the Southwest has driven the local vacancy rate dramatically lower in recent quarters. in the Southwest has fallen from 13 percent to 9.6 percent in the past year, and the rate retreated by 130 basis points in the first quarter alone. by Building Type 20% 1 1 14% 12% Warehouse Manufacturing Flex > > The Airport Area continues to record vacancy increases as new supply comes online. More than 2.5 million square feet of new space has been delivered in the Airport Area over the past 10 quarters, increasing inventory in the submarket by more than 5 percent. in the Airport Area has spiked by 210 basis points in the past year to 12.3 percent. 4% 2% 0% 2017 > > Forecast: The Greater Phoenix industrial vacancy rate is forecast to dip 50 basis points to 9.5 percent in 2017. has improved in each of the past three years, with an average annual decline of 70 basis points. Absorption and Leasing Activity: > > Net absorption topped 2 million square feet in the first quarter, following nearly 2.5 million square feet in the fourth quarter of last year. In the past 12 months, net absorption has totaled more than 6.5 million square feet. > > Net absorption has been largely concentrated in the Southwest. More than 1.8 million square feet of net absorption was recorded in the Southwest during the first quarter, and the figure for the Southwest has topped 1 million square feet in each of the past three quarters. > > The Southeast will likely receive a boost in absorption at some point in the next few years. During the first quarter, Intel announced plans to bring the company s vacant 2.1-million square foot FAB 42 online after the facility has sat vacant for a few years. > > Forecast: The strong levels of net absorption in the first quarter will be sustained through the rest of this year. Net absorption is forecast to reach 7.2 million square feet in 2017, up from 6.4 million square feet in. Rental Rates: > > Asking rents inched higher in the first quarter, reaching $0.56 per square foot, per month. Asking rents are 5 percent higher than one year ago and up more than 12 percent from two years ago. > > Rents in big-box distribution space leveled off in the first quarter following strong gains in and. Average asking rents in big-box distribution buildings are up 4.3 percent year over year at $0.41 per square foot, per month. Among Major Submarkets 14% 12% 4% 2% 0% Airport Area Northeast Asking Rent Trends Average Asking Rent (per SF, per month) $0.58 $0.57 $0.56 $0.55 $0.54 $0.53 $0.52 $0.51 $0.50 $0.49 $0.48 $0.47 $0.46 $0.45 2017 Northwest Southeast Southwest Greater Phoenix 2017 3 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2017 Industrial Colliers International
Rental Rates (continued): > > Flex buildings are posting some of the strongest rent gains in the Greater Phoenix market. Rents for flex space have spiked by 8.6 percent in the past year to $1.08 per square foot, per month. In the Southeast, which has nearly half of the total flex space in the Greater Phoenix market, flex rents have increased 4 percent in the past year to $1.11 per square foot, per month. > > Forecast: Asking rents are on pace to advance by 4.5 percent to 5.0 percent in 2017, following average annual gains of more than 5 percent over the past two years. Construction Employment Overview Construciton Jobs (thousands) Construction Employment Employment Change 120 10.0% 100 7.5% 80 5.0% 60 2.5% 40 0.0% 20-2.5% 0-5.0% 2010 2011 2012 2017* Annual Change Construction: > > Development activity gained momentum in the first quarter, with nearly 1.8 million square feet coming online. This was the strongest period of new development since the first quarter of last year. > > During the past 12 months, projects totaling nearly 5 million square feet have been delivered. The pace of new development will likely be consistent in the year ahead. Approximately 4.7 million square feet is currently under construction, including more than 2.8 million square feet of spec space. > > The spec construction in the market is concentrated in the Southwest, where projects totaling more than 1.8 million square feet of spec space is currently under construction. There are a few separate spec developments currently under way in the Southeast, but the buildings are smaller. Spec construction in the Southeast totals approximately 270,000 square feet. > > Forecast: Completions will total nearly 6.5 million square feet in 2017, up from 5.2 million square feet in. Developers have delivered at least 5 million square feet in each year since. * Through March Construction Trends by Submarket Square Feet 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Airport Area * Forecast 2017* Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Investment Trends: > > Sales of industrial buildings spiked to close and another increase in transaction activity was recorded at the start of this year. Sales velocity rose 5 percent from the end of last year to the first quarter of 2017 and transaction counts in the first quarter were 16 percent ahead of last year s first-quarter total. > > Prices inched up during the first quarter. The median price was $75 per square foot in the first quarter, up from $74 per square foot in. Pricing has remained in a tight range since. > > After dipping into the low-7 percent range in, cap rates rose in the first quarter, reaching an average of 7.7 percent. A few properties changed hands with cap rates between 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent. Investment Trends Median Price per SF Sales Price Cap Rate $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2017 9% 7% 5% Average Cap Rate 4 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2017 Industrial Colliers International
Industrial Market EXISTING PROPERTIES DIRECT VACANCY SUBLEASE VACANCY TOTAL VACANCY NET ABSORPTION - SF NEW SUPPLY - SF UNDER CONSTR AVG. RENT BUILDING TYPE INDUSTRIAL MARKET TOTAL INVENTORY SF SF RATE SF RATE SF RATE -17 Airport Market Cluster: North Airport, S Airport N of Roeser, S Airport S of Roeser, SC N of Salt River, SC S of Salt River RATE -16 CURRENT PERIOD YTD CURRENT PERIOD YTD SF RATE (NNN) General Industrial 6,457,872 1,462,578 22. 12,080 0.2% 1,474,658 22. 18.0% 284,558 284,558 68,220 68,220 283,013 $0.62 Warehouse 25,164,820 2,410,734 9. 81,060 0.3% 2,491,794 9.9% 7.4% 38,777 38,777 130,421 130,421 107,580 $0.56 Manufacturing 8,344,526 541,130 6.5% 74,201 0.9% 615,331 7.4% 9. 218,969 218,969 - - - $0.52 Service Center/Showroom 1,656,965 37,390 2.3% 10,686 0. 48,076 2.9% 4.4% 742 742 - - - $0.66 Flex 4,218,307 962,022 22. 27,376 0. 989,398 23.5% 18.9% (11,243) (11,243) - - 215,634 $1.11 Total 45,842,490 5,413,854 11. 205,403 0.4% 5,619,257 12.3% 10.2% 531,803 531,803 198,641 198,641 606,227 $0.65 Northeast Market Cluster: Central Phoenix, Scottsdale Airpark, Scottsdale/Salt River General Industrial 637,618 87,310 13.7% - 0.0% 87,310 13.7% 8.7% (38,340) (38,340) - - - $0.96 Warehouse 5,352,211 474,075 8.9% 16,523 0.3% 490,598 9.2% 10.1% (43,647) (43,647) - - 151,728 $0.88 Manufacturing 2,913,245 84,718 2.9% 6,303 0.2% 91,021 3.1% 1. (4,803) (4,803) - - - $0.86 Service Center/Showroom 1,008,057 51,403 5.1% - 0.0% 51,403 5.1% 5. 2,139 2,139 - - - $1.13 Flex 4,451,247 384,645 8. 24,279 0. 408,924 9.2% 9.2% (21,376) (21,376) - - - $0.96 Total 14,362,378 1,082,151 7.5% 47,105 0.4% 1,129,256 7.9% 7.7% (106,027) (106,027) - - 151,728 $0.94 Northwest Market Cluster: Deer /Pinnacle Peak, Glendale, Grand Avenue, N Glendale/Sun City, North Black Canyon, North Outlying, W Phx N of Thomas, W Phx S of Thomas General Industrial 7,791,573 1,250,333 16.0% - 0.0% 1,250,333 16.0% 10.3% (102,936) (102,936) 618,350 618,350 1,368,028 $0.44 Warehouse 28,817,613 1,782,397 6.1% 19,253 0.1% 1,801,650 6.2% 6.2% (76,555) (76,555) 173,262 173,262 45,430 $0.67 Manufacturing 10,926,058 339,135 3.1% 20,000 0.2% 359,135 3.3% 4.0% (52,673) (52,673) - - 66,612 $0.53 Service Center/Showroom 1,953,293 40,438 2.1% - 0.0% 40,438 2.1% 5.7% (6,961) (6,961) - - - $0.74 Flex 4,726,283 551,963 11.7% - 0.0% 551,963 11.7% 13.2% 17,834 17,834 - - 50,937 $1.06 Total 54,214,820 3,964,266 7.3% 39,253 0.1% 4,003,519 7.4% 6.9% (221,291) (221,291) 791,612 791,612 1,531,007 $0.60 Southeast Market Cluster: Chandler Airport, Chandler, Chandler N/Gilbert, Falcon Field/Apache Junction, Mesa, Tempe East, Tempe Northwest, Tempe Southwest General Industrial 11,008,228 1,061,529 9. - 0.0% 1,061,529 9. 9. (29,125) (29,125) - - - $0.55 Warehouse 36,146,687 2,940,895 8.1% 91,773 0.3% 3,032,668 8.4% 9.4% 178,336 178,336 131,796 131,796 173,312 $0.60 Manufacturing 23,521,419 3,091,458 13.2% 74,336 0.3% 3,165,794 13.5% 13.9% 13,105 13,105 - - 179,979 $0.58 Service Center/Showroom 3,012,464 99,439 3.3% 20,000 0.7% 119,439 4.0% 2.4% (12,900) (12,900) - - - $0.67 Flex 12,397,598 1,665,928 13.4% 140,635 1.2% 1,806,563 14. 12.7% (129,784) (129,784) - - 60,000 $1.11 Total 86,086,396 8,859,249 10.3% 326,744 0.4% 9,185,993 10.7% 10.9% 19,632 19,632 131,796 131,796 413,291 $0.72 Southwest Market Cluster: Goodyear, SW N of Buckeye Road, SW S Buckeye Road, Tolleson, Southwest Outlying General Industrial 46,421,953 5,388,056 11. 89,600 0.2% 5,477,656 11. 14.4% 803,809 803,809 625,233 625,233 1,820,416 $0.37 Warehouse 32,282,359 2,250,151 7.0% 107,036 0.3% 2,357,187 7.3% 11.4% 487,900 487,900 - - - $0.38 Manufacturing 10,515,673 820,331 7. - 0.0% 820,331 7. 13. 518,414 518,414 50,000 50,000 250,000 $0.38 Service Center/Showroom 2,494,091 86,999 3.5% - 0.0% 86,999 3.5% 2.4% (40,619) (40,619) - - - $0.56 Flex 1,246,081 150,000 12.0% - 0.0% 150,000 12.0% 18.2% 65,900 65,900 - - - $0.65 Total 92,960,157 8,695,537 9.4% 196,636 0.2% 8,892,173 9. 13.0% 1,835,404 1,835,404 675,233 675,233 2,070,416 $0.37 GRAND TOTAL General Industrial 72,317,244 9,249,806 12. 101,680 0.1% 9,351,486 12.9% 13.5% 917,966 917,966 1,311,803 1,311,803 3,471,457 $0.44 Warehouse 127,763,690 9,858,252 7.7% 315,645 0.2% 7.9% 8. 584,811 584,811 435,479 435,479 478,050 $0.54 Manufacturing 56,220,921 4,876,772 8.7% 174,840 0.3% 5,051,612 9.0% 10.7% 693,012 693,012 50,000 50,000 496,591 $0.53 Service Center/Showroom 10,124,870 315,669 3.1% 30,686 0.3% 346,355 3.4% 3.7% (57,599) (57,599) - - - $0.80 Flex 27,039,516 3,714,558 13.7% 192,290 0.7% 3,906,848 14.4% 13.4% (78,669) (78,669) - - 326,571 $1.08 Total 293,466,241 28,015,057 9.5% 815,141 0.3% 28,830,198 9. 10. 2,059,521 2,059,521 1,797,282 1,797,282 4,772,669 $0.56 QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q1-17 Total 293,466,241 28,015,057 9.5% 815,141 0.3% 28,830,198 9. 10. 2,059,521 2,059,521 1,797,282 1,797,282 4,772,669 $0.56 Q4-16 Total 291,636,021 27,881,070 9. 1,177,785 0.4% 29,058,855 10.0% 2,495,561 642,549 3,787,751 $0.56 Q3-16 Total 290,993,472 29,672,475 10.2% 1,239,392 0.4% 30,911,867 10. 1,621,091 1,436,332 2,348,463 $0.56 Q2-16 Total 289,557,140 29,837,926 10.3% 1,258,700 0.4% 31,096,626 10.7% 395,154 1,042,034 3,049,188 $0.55 Q1-16 Total 288,515,106 28,997,657 10.1% 1,452,089 0.5% 30,449,746 10. 1,847,410 2,068,944 2,696,166 $0.55 As new, corrected or updated information is obtained, it is incorporated in both current and historical data, which may invalidate comparison to previously issued reports.
Outlook: Industrial tenant expansion is forecast to remain healthy in the years ahead. Net absorption has averaged more than 6 million square feet per year since 2010, and a similar total is forecast for 2017. Looking ahead, net absorption will receive a boost and the local vacancy rate will dip as Intel moves into the company s Fab 42 manufacturing facility. The 2.1-million square foot project was delivered in, but has remained vacant since being delivered. During the first quarter, Intel announced plans to complete the semiconductor facility with an investment of at least $7 billion over the next few years. The move is expected to add thousands of high-wage engineering and equipment technician jobs in the Southeast. The local housing market will support industrial market fundamentals in the years ahead. Single-family permitting rose by nearly 10 percent in and a more rapid pace of growth is forecast for this year. In, Maricopa County recorded population growth of more than 80,000 residents, the largest expansion of any county in the United States. This population growth will fuel demand for housing. To this point in the cycle, much of the new housing demand has been met by elevated multifamily construction. This trend is expected to change course in the next 36 months, and single-family construction is a more significant driver of industrial space demand. The ongoing improvement in vacancies and rents will support investment activity in the coming quarters. Sales velocity has been fairly steady over the past few years, with a healthy mix of investment and owner-user activity. These trends should continue through the rest of 2017, particularly with tenant demand for industrial space elevated. The new buildings coming to the market could add to transaction volume going forward. Sales of newer construction account for only about 5 percent of total activity, but that share has been on the rise since. FOR MORE INFORMATION Bob Mulhern Senior Managing Director Greater Phoenix +1 602 222 5038 Bob.Mulhern@colliers.com Jim Keeley SIOR Founding Partner Scottsdale Office +1 480 655 3300 Jim.Keeley@colliers.com Pete O Neil Research Director Greater Phoenix +1 602 222 5029 Pete.ONeil@colliers.com Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Phoenix 2390 E. Camelback Road, Suite 100 Phoenix, AZ 85016 +1 602 222 5000 colliers.com/greaterphoenix 6 North American Research & Forecast Report Q4 Office Market Outlook Colliers International