St. John s CMA Housing Market Overview Chris Janes, Senior Market Analyst CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Housing market intelligence you can count on
Key drivers of housing demand Population Employment Income CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 2
Working age population up in 2016 190 185 180 Population, St. John s Area, Both Sexes, Age 15+ (000 s) +1.5% or 2,700 people to 181,300 175 170 165 160 155 150 Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 3
Avg. weekly earnings -3.5% to $953 vs $987 Earnings Remain Strong $1,050 Average Weekly Earnings ($), St. John's CMA $1,000 $950 $900 $850 $800-3.5% 2015 was first yr/yr decline in recent history $750 $700 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 4
Employment flat at +0.1% in 2016 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 Employment, 15-64 yrs, St. John's Area (000's) 116,400 Full time: -3% or 3,000 Part time: +17% or 3,000 85 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 5
Oil sector #1 driver of economy since 1997 Production (billion bbls) 1.6+ Value of Output (billion $ CDN) $115+ Value of Output (billion $ US) $103+ Cumulative Royalties (billion $ CDN) $19+ Sector Investment (billion $ CDN) $45+ Source: AG report, provincial budgets and public accounts CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 6
Economic outlook Negative: No to little growth expected in economy & housing market drivers until after 2018 Positive: Current & future capital project activity: Hebron first oil late 2017 Muskrat Falls & Gull Island White Rose West GBS drilling platform construction in Bull Arm Statoil 2013 discoveries development Harpoon & Bay du Nord Future offshore oil field expansions, extensions & discoveries Currently $3 billion in outstanding work commitment bids offshore NL Mining & mineral projects in Labrador & central NL Oil sector major driver of economy, however: Since 2012, royalties down from 38.7% of provincial revenues to 10.5% Net debt per capita +60% from $15,000 to $24,000 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 7
New Home Market CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 8
New home market 2016 Weaker new home construction activity: St. John s CMA housing starts -15% to 833 vs 985 Singles -14% to 625 vs 729 75% of total starts Multiples -19% to 208 vs 256 25% of total starts Avg. singles price -1.7% to $424,647 vs $431,813 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 9
Single starts declined considerably since 2013 1,600 Annual Single-Detached Starts, St. John s Area 1,400 1,485 1,479 1,200 1,000 1,174 1,382 1,304 1,292 1,243 10yr avg. 1,162 800 907 600 729 400 625 200 - Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 10
Multiple starts declined since 2012 1,000 Annual Multiple Starts, St. John s Area 900 800 861 700 600 619 500 400 300 200 100 306 378 318 337 491 10yr avg. 410 323 256 208 - Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 11
Single starts lower in all submarkets Single and Total Starts by Submarket 2016 Single Total Submarket YTD 2016 YTD 2015 YTD 2016 YTD 2015 % Change St. John's City 201 212 294 398-26.1 Conception Bay South 134 176 144 186-22.6 Mount Pearl 41 50 76 50 52.0 Paradise 95 117 160 167-4.2 Torbay 30 39 34 47-27.7 Remainder of the CMA 124 135 125 137-8.8 St. John's CMA 625 729 833 985-15.4 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 12
Increase in Semi & Row in select submarkets Submarket Multiple Starts by Submarket 2016 YTD 2016 Semi YTD 2015 YTD 2016 Row YTD 2015 Apt. & Other YTD 2016 YTD 2015 St. John's City 25 2 11 9 57 175 Conception Bay South 0 0 10 0 0 10 Mount Pearl 10 0 23 0 2 0 Paradise 51 14 0 0 14 36 Torbay 0 0 0 0 4 8 Remainder of the CMA 0 0 0 0 1 2 St. John's CMA 86 16 44 9 78 231 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 13
New home prices mixed among submarkets Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-detached Units 2016 Submarket YTD 2016 YTD 2015 % Change St. John's City 444,456 471,455-5.7 Conception Bay South 342,239 348,528-1.8 Mount Pearl 361,095 346,609 4.2 Paradise 412,923 413,994-0.3 Torbay 540,699 474,849 13.9 Remainder of the CMA 516,613 508,733 1.5 St. John's CMA 424,647 431,813-1.7 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 14
Year over year price growth prior to 2016 Average New Single-Detached Price Growth, St. John s Area 25% 22% 20% 15% 15% Avg. +8% prior to 2016 10% 10% 9% 8% 10% 5% 3% 4% 2% 5% 4% 0% -5% -3% Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 15
New home market outlook... No growth in housing starts until after 2018 Single-detached demand inline with demographics Multiples driven by semi, row & AHI rental projects Avg. price pressure via lower-priced homes & economy Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 16
MLS Residential Market MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 17
MLS residential activity 2016 Weaker MLS activity: St. John s Area sales -5.8% to 3,182 Avg. MLS price -5.2% to $307,322 Active listings flat; Declined Sept. 2015 to July 2016 Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 18
Steady MLS sales since 2008 4,500 MLS Sales, St. John s Region 4,000 3,500 3,000 3,835 3,642 3,470 3,647 3,871 3,617 10yr avg. 3,547 3,281 3,378 3,182 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 19
2016 average MLS price by submarket $394,250 $329,291 $298,470 $295,039 $274,522 $267,657 Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 20
Year over year MLS submarket activity Submarket MLS Residential Activity by Submarket Sales 2016 2015 % Change Average Sale Price ($) Sales Average Sale Price ($) Sales Average Sale Price St. John's City 1,326 298,470 1,371 310,818-3.3-4.0 Mount Pearl 261 274,522 265 293,594-1.5-6.5 St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail 312 329,291 372 336,820-16.1-2.2 Conception Bay South 328 295,039 336 289,228-2.4 2.0 East Extern 201 394,250 256 353,438-21.5 11.5 Bay Bulls - Mobile 23 267,657 40 270,933-42.5-1.2 St. John's CMA 2,451 307,322 2,640 324,131-7.2-5.2 Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 21
Year over year price growth prior to 2015 Average MLS Price Growth, St. John s Region 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 21% 14% 9% Avg. 10% prior to 2015 7% 5% 2% 0% -5% -10% -4% -5% Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 22
2016 MLS market conditions Buyers Market: Avg. MLS price flat to declining Sales flat to declining Days on market averaging about 3 months for a sale Sale-to-list price ratio of 96% vs. 97% a year ago Monthly sales-to-active listings ratio of 10% (1 in10 selling) Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 23
MLS residential market outlook... Sales flat, inline with weaker economy Avg. price pressure via lower-priced homes & economy Buyers resale market classification continues Low mortgage rates help support prices Source: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 24
Rental Market CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 25
7.9% vacancy rate, up from 4.7% Zone Private Apartment Vacancy Rates (%) by Zone and Bedroom Type St. John's CMA Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom + Total Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Zone 1 - St. John's East 7.8 9.2-3.5 2.8-3.5 8.4 5.8 7.8-4.1 6.7 Zone 2 - St. John's West 4.1 8.7 3.0 4.3 5.8 11.2 8.3 15.3 5.0 9.3 St. John's City (Zones 1-2) 6.3 9.0 3.3 3.4-4.6 9.6 7.0 11.4 4.5 7.8 Zone 3 - Remainder of CMA 0.0 ** 0.7 6.3 6.9 4.8 ** ** 6.1 8.4 - St. John's CMA 6.2 9.0 3.0 3.8 4.7 9.3 9.2 13.6 4.7 7.9 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 26
Average rents higher, despite higher vacancies Zone Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Zone and Bedroom Type St. John's CMA Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom + Total Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Zone 1 - St. John's East 655 651 833 822 995 1,035 981 956 904 924 Zone 2 - St. John's West 736 760 774 783 878 895 908 905 836 850 St. John's City (Zones 1-2) 690 697 808 806 941 973 946 932 874 892 Zone 3 - Remainder of CMA ** ** 724 743 717 773 702 713 717 750 St. John's CMA 690 697 798 799 923 958 902 888 859 879 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 27
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Contact Information Chris Janes Senior Market Analyst CMHC 709-772-2403 cjanes@cmhc.ca CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 29