Accelerating Success Residential Property Research and Forecast Report Q2 2015 colliers.com
INDIA RESIDENTIAL Bengaluru, Pune & Chennai lead the Residential Market During the second quarter of 2015, an increase in the number of enquiries for residential properties has been observed. However, transaction volumes continued to remain low across major markets barring cities like Bengaluru, Chennai and Pune. Economic Barometers INDICATORS 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 ¹ Source: Government of India, Colliers International India Research Return on Alternative Investments We do see green shoots in the good response that some new launched projects have seen this year and developers have continued offering possession-linked payment plans, discounts and freebies to provide much needed comfort to buyers. Capital values remain stable in most cities; however select micro markets with inherent demand witnessed increases in the range of 2-5% QoQ. Colliers View: With volatility in the stock market, and inflation taming down, we expect investors to relook at the residential real estate sector. The improving economic sentiment and upcoming festive season will also help to improve sales primarily in the affordable and mid-income segment homes. Economic Indicators Source: Government of India, Colliers International India Research INDICATORS 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 QoQ % CHANGE ² ³ ¹SBI home loan rate for loan upto INR 30 lakhs ²SBI fixed deposit rate for a period of more than one year & amount below INR 1 crore ³Realty index is a free float weighted index, comprised of real estate development companies in BSE 500 Index Source: Government of India, Colliers International India Research
BENGALURU RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL RATE RENTAL RATE NEW PROJECTS CONSTRUCTION The Bengaluru primary residential market remained lively. In 2Q about 7,000 new units were launched as compared to last quarter s 6,000 new units. This rise in confidence in residential real estate sector can be attributed to the increased enquires from both end users and investors and good commercial office absorption from IT/ITeS sector. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY In the premium category projects launched during the quarter includes; Leela Residency by Bhartiya City at Thanisandra Road, Sobha Clovelley by Sobha Developers at JP Nagar, Mahindra Windchimes by Mahindra Lifespaces at Bannergatta Road. These projects were priced in the range of INR 7,000 11,500 per sq ft. In the mid-range segment, project launched were Allanoville by Goel &Co at Hennur Road, Hebbal One by Shriram Developers at Hebbal, Casa Grande Luxus by Casa Grande at KR Puram, Mantri Energia by Mantri Developers at Hebbal, Shriram Luxor by Shriram Developers at Herlur Road and Nitesh Hunter Valley by Nitesh Developers at Hennur Road. These projects were priced in the range of INR 4,190-6,500 per sq ft and are expected to be ready between 2017-18. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
Not only new launches, this quarter various developers completed their under construction projects and started giving possessions, primarily in mid-range projects (INR 4,390 5590 per sq ft) like Nitesh Ceasers Palace by Nitesh Developers at Kanakapura Road, Salarpuria Melody by Salarpuria Developer at Mysore Road and Bren Trillium by Bren Group at Hosur Road, however a villa based project Skylark Arcadia by Sklark Developers at Whitefield. The project was priced at INR 7,500 per sq ft in secondary market. Average Capital Value Trends In 2Q 2015, both capital values and rents in secondary market were remained unchanged across all the micro markets. In a major private equity investment, Amplus Realty Fund invested about $200 million in residential project United Tower developed by Bengaluru based developer Lalith Gangadhar Constructions Pvt. Ltd. Average Rental Values Colliers View We expect more new launches in the upcoming festive season and developers will offer various freebies and attractive payment plans to lure the customers. Capital values are expected to remain on the same levels as in most of the markets supply is complementing the demand. Similarly, rents are also expected to remain stable in short to medium term. Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Senior Manager Residential Services Bengaluru aakansha.anand@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit No. 201/202, 36 Ulsoor Road TEL +91 80 4079 5500
CHENNAI RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL RATE RENTAL RATE NEW PROJECTS CONSTRUCTION Chennai residential market strengthened further during 2Q 2015 with resilient demand for both primary and secondary market. Beside end-users,chennai also witnessed demand from NRI investors. In terms of absorption this quarter, Pallavaram - Thoraipakkam Road has emerged as one of the most preferred location by virtue of its connectivity to Rajiv Gandhi Salai and GST road. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY During second quarter a number of projects were launched in both luxury and mid-range segment. In the premium segment Akshaya Group launched Level Up (51 units) at Nungambakkam at INR 19,000 per sq ft, Amara Group launched New Beach (8 units) at Thiruvanmiyur at INR 13,500 per sq ft. These projects are expected to be ready by 2017. In the mid-range category, S&S Foundation launched Uni5 (128 units) at Padi, Godrej Properties launched Azure (approximately 800 units) at Padur and Casa Grande launched Casa Grande Elan at Thalambur. These projects were priced in the range of INR 3,000 6,000 per sq ft and are expected to be ready in phases between 2017-2020. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
Various premium projects were completed during 2Q 2015 including, Ishan by S&S Foundations at Mylapore and Avana by Amara Group at Nungambakkam. These projects were priced at INR 16,000 and INR 23,000 per sq ft, respectively. Apart from this a mid-range project Sarvam developed by S&S Foundations located at Velachery also got completed. Average Capital Value Trends Despite consistent demand, capital values in secondary remained stable across all the micro markets in Chennai. Similarly, rental values were also remained unaltered. In a major infrastructure development, a 10.15 KM patch between Alandur to Koyambedu of Chennai metro rail becomes operational. This will provide swift connectivity and boost the real estate activities between the two micro markets. Bengaluru based real estate developer Puravankara Ltd has raised around $13 million (INR 825 million) from ASK Group for its arm Provident Housing Ltd. The proceeds would be used to develop a residential project in Poonamallee on an area of about 32 acres. Average Rental Values Colliers View Considering the positive sentiments in residential real estate and pro-infrastructural developments like Metro rail corridors, a steady growth is expected in long term. We are expecting only a marginal increase in capital values in medium term as supply is complementing the demand in most of the micro markets. Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Manager Residential Services Chennai abubaker.siddeek@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Heavitree Complex, Unit 1C, 1st Floor, 23 Spurtank Road, Chetpet TEL +91 44 2836 1064
Delhi RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL VALUE RENTAL VALUE NEW PROJECTS PROJECTS COMPLETED Following the past few quarter trends, Delhi prime residential market remained lack luster. Except for few redevelopment project no new major project were launched in the city. In the primary market, recently launched project in newly developing L Zone recorded initial investors interest due to affordable prices and a location tag of Delhi. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY The prime lease market in the city remained stable and a few deals were concluded by various embassies. Apart from this few occupiers from MNCs also leased high value apartments in premium locations like Vasant Vihar, Westend, Safdurjung Enclave and Jorbagh. Capital values remained stable during the quarter; however rents declined in the range of 3 5% in micro markets like Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA, Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh, Greater Kailash I & II and South Extension. During this quarter, the ministry of urban development has approved a proposal to allow building of residences in hotels in Delhi as a part of its review of Master Plan of Delhi-2021. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
After this change approved in the Development Controls for Commercial Centres pertaining to Hotels, hotels will be allowed to use up to 40% of the floor area ratio for commercial offices, retail and service shops and residential purposes. Residential units, however, can be built only on 20% of this FAR. Average Capital Value Trends Looking at the current problems of DDA to acquire and manage land in Delhi for a long time. The Union Urban Development Ministry has set up a committee to review the DDA Act 1957, so that the agency's role is redefined from that of a developer to a facilitator and regulator. Colliers View With upcoming festive season and strengthening of the economic conditions, the secondary market is likely to improve in the coming quarters. Capital values are expected to remain stable in the near term, however rental values may witness marginal appreciation in select micro-markets due to considerable demand and limited supply. Average Rental Values Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Senior Manager Residential Services Gurgaon nitish.rajvanshi@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Technopolis Building, 1 st Floor, DLF Golf Course Road, Sector 54 TEL +91 124 456 7500
Gurgaon RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL VALUE RENTAL VALUE NEW PROJECTS PROJECTS COMPLETION A little over 6,000 residential units were launched in 1H 2015. These units cater mostly to the premium and midsegment market. The number of units launched in the second quarter were less than that in the first quarter of 2015. Project launched this quarter include Icon by Godrej Properties at Sector 88 A, Blue Lagoon by Orris Infrastructure at Sector 85 and Olympia by Sare Group at Sector 92. These projects were priced in the range of INR 5,500 6,000 per sq ft. (BSP) and are expected to be ready by end of 2019. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY We noticed that investors were still staying away from buying residential real estate in the anticipation that prices would be reduced further. On the other hand, end users were buying units in the mid to affordable range in micromarkets along NH-8, Sohna Road and Golf Course Extension Road, due to more affordable pricing and freebies being offered. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties In 2Q 2015, construction status remained sluggish and as a result no new residential project or part of the project was completed. Also capital and rental values remained stable across all the micro markets, except DLF Phase I where rents rose by 5% QoQ.
Project wise this quarter DLF hiked the base rate of its project Regal Gardens by INR 250 per sq ft to INR 6,500 per sq ft, this project was launched in March 2012 at INR 4,750 per sq ft. Average Capital Value Trends In major investment proposal this quarter, Chinese real estate giant, Dalian Wanda Group, has expressed interest in investing in Gurgaon, by venturing into lifestyle and commercial real estate projects. The company has plans to invest $10 billion in India in the next 10 years to construct industrial townships and retail properties. Colliers View Transaction volumes continue to be low and so is the case with new starts. Similarly there is still a significant gap between primary and secondary market rates for residential units. However we do see green shoots in the good response that some new launched projects have seen this year. These are projects which were launched at a slightly lower rate than those prevailing in the same micro-market. With volatility in the stock market, we expect investors will relook at the residential real estate sector, and with improving economic sentiment we expect sales to improve in the affordable and mid-income segment homes. Average Rental Values Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Senior Manager Residential Services Gurgaon nitish.rajvanshi@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Technopolis Building, 1 st Floor, DLF Golf Course Road, Sector 54 TEL +91 124 456 7500
MUMBAI RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2014 2015 2015F CAPITAL VALUE RENTAL VALUE NEW PROJECTS PROJECT COMPLETIONS Similar to the previous quarter, the residential market in Mumbai saw low sales volumes in this quarter as well. Unsold inventory is now estimated at nearly 170,000 units for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Despite the lull, the market witnessed few premium residential apartment was bought by celebrities and Industrialist during this quarter. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY Due to the pile up unsold inventory, developers mostly refrained from launching new projects. However, few renowned developers launched their projects this quarter such as Godrej launched Prime in Chembur at INR 13,200 per sq ft, SP Group launched Vicinia near Powai at INR 12,500 per sq ft, Lodha Group launched Big Bang at 8,150 per sq ft and Sheth Developer launched two new projects, Montana at Mulund at 11,750 per sq ft and Avante at Kanjurmanrg at INR 10,500 per sq ft. Premium projects that were completed in this quarter includes, Oriana developed by Rustomjee Group having approximately 130 units and Sparkle developed by Kalpataru Group having around 200 units. Both these projects are located at Bandra East and were priced in the range of INR 30,000-33,000 per sq ft. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
Capital values in South Mumbai (Malabar Hill, Altamont Road, Carmichael Road, Breach Candy, Napeansea Road, Peddar Road) on an average increased by 1% QoQ, however Central Mumbai, Western Suburbs and Central Suburbs remained stable. Rents for premium properties also remained stable this quarter. Average Capital Value Trends In a major land transaction this quarter, Mumbai-based realty developer Wadhwa Group bought 6.5 acres of developable land located in Pokharan Road 2, Thane through an e-auction bid for INR 208 crores. The land parcel belong to Windsor Realty earlier which is a joint venture between Gopal Narang and Rajan Raheja. In 2014, Tata Housing Development Company had acquired a 7-acre plot adjacent to this land parcel from KEC International for over 200 crore. In this quarter, IIFL Real Estate Fund (Domestic) Series II invested $16.07 million (INR 1 billion) in Mumbai based residential project of Pashmina Builders and Developers Pvt. Ltd. The proceeds would be used to part-refinance an earlier loan and partly for project approvals. Also Primal Fund invested INR 80 crore in FORUM s Serendipity located at BKC. Average Rental Values Colliers View In the wake of upcoming festive season, we have already started witnessing some traction in the market. During Pre Shradh period a number of developers have already launched a few new projects with attractive payment plans and freebies to cash in festive season momentum. Capital values are unlikely to see any price correction and rents will remain stable in medium term. Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Residential Services Mumbai sitanshu.singhdeo@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Indiabulls Finance Centre, 17th Floor, Unit No. 1701, Tower 3 Senapati Bapat Marg, Elphinstone (W) TEL +91 22 4050 4500
NOIDA RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL VALUE RENTAL VALUE NEW PROJECTS PROJECTS COMPLETION Despite price discounts and freebies being offered by the developers, the overall sales volume in primary market remained low in 2Q 2015. In the secondary market, project at the advance construction level witnessed increased query from end-users. Market Trends MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY There were only a few new launches in the market. Hindustan Land Developers Pvt. Ltd launched a mixeduse project, "iport" in Sector 132 at INR 9,090 per sq ft. This project is expected to be delivered by 2019. Apart from this a new tower was launched in Hawelia Valenova Park at Greater Noida West by Hawelia Group at INR 3,100 per sq ft. This project is expected to be ready by end of 2016. Capital values remained unchanged across all micromarkets, however, rents witnessed a marginal increase in select projects with modern amenities. In this quarter, ICICI Prudential exited from Logix Group's Housing project for about INR 62 crores. ICICI Prudential's India Opportunity Real Estate Fund had invested about INR 30 crore as equity in the Logix group's housing project Blossom Green at Noida in 2011. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
In an another transaction, ICICI Prudential AMC has committed to invest INR130 crore in ATS Infrastructure villas based projects located in Sector 150. The builder will later add high-rise apartment blocks in the same project. This is among the few investments that have been made in a greenfield housing project in the current slow market. Average Capital Value Trends Ignoring the pressure on NOIDA residential real estate NOIDA authority has hiked the circle rates in by 5 10% across various categories. With this Sector 15A and Sector 44 have become the most costly with INR 90,500/Sq.mtr., which was earlier INR 86,000/ Sq.mtr. The metro rail route between City Center and Sector 62 was revived as Cico-YFC won the contract to construct the 6.8 km link at an estimated cost of INR 384 crores. The total cost will be shared by state and the center on a 80:20 basis. Average Rental Values Colliers View Recently, the Union Environment Ministry has cleared the draft notification of the eco-sensitive zone around the Okhla Bird Sanctuary. The Noida Authority is expected to issue completion certificates to the ready projects. This will boost the overall development in the sector along expressway and the market will find renewed interest among buyers. However, the market struggle is likely to continue in coming quarters, as alone in NOIDA about 40,000 units are unsold. The recent hike in circle rates will put more pressure on the primary as well as the secondary market. Capital and rental values are expected to remain on the same level in near term. Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Senior Manager Residential Services Gurgaon nitish.rajvanshi@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. Technopolis Building, 1 st Floor, DLF Golf Course Road, Sector 54 TEL +91 124 456 7500
PUNE RESIDENTIAL Market Indicators Market Q4 Market Q1 Market Q2 Market Q3 Relative to prior period 2014 2015 2015 2015F CAPITAL RATES RENTAL RATE CONSTRUCTION NEW PROJECTS Pune residential market continued to witnessed positive demand momentum. In the primary market new launch projects witnessed decent uptake from end-users as well as Investors. Hinjewadi, Baner, Bavdhan, Undri and Pimpri-Chinchwad remained the most active micro markets in terms of absorption. Due to peak monsoon season, construction activities were remained slow. No major residential project or part of the project was completed during the quarter. However a number of projects were launched in 2Q in both luxury and mid-range segments; Kool Homes launch Blue Lotus 2 at Sopan Baug, Kolte Patil launch KP Heights at Kothrud, Supreme Universal launch Supreme Amodore at Baner and Kasturi Epitome by Kasturi Developers at Wakad. These projects were priced in the range of INR 7,800-9,500 per sq ft. and are expected to be ready in different phases between 2016-18. Capital Values MICRO MARKETS CAPITAL VALUES (INR PSF) QoQ % CHANGE YoY In the mid-range, project launched includes; Marvel Ideal Spacio by Marvel realtors at Undri, Goel Ganga Aria by Goel Ganga Developments at Dhanori, Kalpataru Crescendo by Kalpataru at Wakad. These projects were priced in the range of INR 4,350 6,050 per sq ft. and are expected to complete by 2017 18. Note: Above values represents indicative asking price for premium properties
Capital values in secondary market remained stable in most of the micro market, except Kalyani Nagar, Viman Nagar and Kharadi where capital values increased by 2% QoQ and a few micro markets like Deccan, Camp, Boat Club, NIBM, Undri and Kondhwa where capital values decreased in the range of 3 to 4% QoQ. Rents were remained stable across the city. Average Capital Value Trends In a major private equity exits, HDFC PMS has exited its investment in seven projects of Pune-based Marvel Realtors for over INR 152 crore. The fund had invested in a commercial and six residential projects around four year back. Colliers View The city residential market will continue to gain momentum in the coming quarters. We expect that the micro-markets located in South East, North West and South West zones of Pune will remain active in terms of project completion and new launches. Overall, capital and rental values are expected increase in medium term. however, select micro-markets located in Central and North East will see a stable scenario. Average Rental Values Residential Services sumit.jain@colliers.com Residential Services sitanshu.singhdeo@colliers.com surabhi.arora@colliers.com Valuation & Advisory Services and Research amit.oberoi@colliers.com Director Residential Services India arvind.kapoor@colliers.com Manager sachin.sharma@colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International (India) Property Services Pvt. Ltd. 5th Floor, Suyog Platinum Towers, Naylor Road, Off Mangaldas Road TEL +91 20 4011 1356