Retail Real Estate Trends & Analysis 1 Greater Hartford, Connecticut New This Year: 1-Year Restaurant Report The KeyPoint Report 1 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA KeyPoint Partners, LLC One Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 18 Tel 781.7. Fax 781.7.88 KeyPointPartners.com Info@KeyPointPartners.com
About this Report: Highlights: This KeyPoint Report examines changes in supply, vacancy and absorption, retailer activity, and market composition by store size and retail categories for the year ending July 1. The Greater Hartford market includes cities and towns, and represents more than 8 square miles and approximately 819,7 people (.7% of the state population). Supply: 7.M SF 1: 7.M Absorption: 7, SF 1: 1, SF Vacancy Rate: 1.1% 1: 11.% KeyPoint Partners GRIID database maintains detailed information on virtually all retail properties in three key regions: Eastern Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Greater Hartford, Connecticut. These markets encompass nearly half of all retail space in New England. GRIID has information on nearly million square feet of retail space and approximately, retail establishments. City/Town Ranks: #1 Space SF: Manchester 1st by Occupancy%: West Hartford Last by Occupancy%: East Windsor Category Expansion by Square Feet: #1 Health & Fitness (+, SF) Category Expansion by Number of Stores: #1 Tie: Food/Grocery, Professional Services (+ each) The KeyPoint Reports contain detailed summaries and analyses of market trends and activity for each region. Copyright KeyPoint Partners, LLC, 1 Retailer Expansion by Square Feet: #1 Fallas (CW Price) (+9,) #1 Subway (+) Study Area: Cities & Towns in the Study Area: Northeast: East Windsor, Ellington, Enfield, South Windsor; Northwest: Avon, Bloomfield, Canton, East Granby, Farmington, Plainville, Simsbury, Suffield, West Hartford, Windsor, Windsor Locks; City of Hartford: Hartford; Southeast: Bolton, East Hartford, Glastonbury, Manchester, Vernon; Southwest: Berlin, New Britain, Newington, Rocky Hill, Wethersfield
KeyPoint Partners, LLC Custom Retail Market Research The KeyPoint Report Greater Hartford, CT 1 Figure 1: Summary At the end of July 1, the total retail inventory was comprised of 7. million square feet, a nominal increase of only 17, square feet from last year. Much of the existing vacancy should be fi lled or demolished before any substantial new retail space can be added to the region, and the region took considerable strides this year toward accomplishing just that. Category Total Market Size (Square Feet) Total Number of Retail Properties Total Number of Retail Establishments Total Market Vacancy (Square Feet) Vacancy Rate Total Retail Space Per Capita 1 7,19,8, 8,1,7, 1.1%. 1 7,179,8, 8,,1,8 11.%. % change Vacancy & Absorption: Vacant retail space within Greater Hartford stood at.7 million square feet, refl ecting a vacancy rate of 1.1%. This was a substantial decrease in vacancy of, square feet from last year s level of 11.%, and is the third consecutive year with declining vacancy. Coupled with the nominal increase in inventory of 17, square feet, this year s net absorption of 7, square feet was more than double that of last year. Figure : Submarkets The City of Hartford, which has the lowest inventory among submarkets in the region, continues to have the highest vacancy rate at 1.%, refl ecting a moderate increase from the 1.7% level reported last year. The Northwest and Southeast submarkets dominate Greater Hartford with 11. million and 1. million square feet, respectively. The Northwest also has the lowest vacancy rate at 7.%, improving upon an 8.7% rate from last year. Submarket City of Hartford Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest Greater Hartford 1 SF,81,,9, 11,7,9 1,9,1 7,97,1 7,19,8 1 SF,811,,977,7 11,, 1,9,1 7,,9 7,179,8 1 Vacancy 1.% 1.9% 7.% 11.% 1.7% 1.1%.%.% -1.% -8.% -8.% -1.9% 1 Vacancy 1.7% 1.% 8.7% 1.1% 11.% 11.% Observations: Special Feature: This year s report, in addition to our usual detailed summary of market activity for the last year, includes an analysis of signifi cant changes in the restaurant category since. Here are our comments and observations: Supply, Occupancy, & Absorption (Figure 1, Page ): Retail space in Greater Hartford currently totals 7. million square feet, a nominal increase of only 17, square feet from last year. In today s environment, limiting new development is a good thing. As noted, much of the existing vacancy should be fi lled or demolished before any substantial new retail space can be added to the region, and the region took considerable strides this year toward accomplishing just that. Total occupancy increased by more than, square feet in 1, lowering the vacancy rate in Greater Hartford from 11.% in 1 to 1.1% this year. The region experienced its third year in a row of declining vacancy, a substantial, square feet, refl ecting the largest decline in recent years of 8.%. The better story is the fact that the current vacancy level is 1.1 million square feet, or %, below the high water mark which occurred in 1 when the vacancy rate was a dismal 1.1%. Even with only a modest gain in inventory, the sizeable reduction in vacant square footage this year resulted in a commendable net absorption rate of 7, square feet. Regional Submarkets (Figure, Page ): Among the Greater Hartford submarkets, the City of Hartford again has the highest vacancy rate in the region, ending the year modestly higher at 1.%. This still compares favorably to an 18.% vacancy rate reported just three years ago. The city is also the smallest retail submarket, consisting of only.8 million square feet of inventory, and should not be a great concern for the region overall. The Northwest and Southeast submarkets lead the region in supply with 11. million and 1. million square feet, respectively. The Northwest also leads the region with the lowest vacancy rate at 7.%, signifi cantly below its 8.7% level of last year. It still is the only submarket in single digits, which is a bit disconcerting. By comparison with the other regions we study, vacancy in Eastern Massachusetts is 8.8% and 9.% in Southern New Hampshire. Greater Hartford has. square feet of retail space for every resident in the region. While this may compare favorably to the retail density in Southern New Hampshire of. square feet per capita, the latter region benefi ts immensely from no sales tax in the state by attracting neighboring Massachusetts shoppers. Without a similar advantage, it s no stretch to say that Greater Hartford is one of the most overstored metro areas in New England. Individual Town Rankings (Figure, Page ): The top ten among Greater Hartford towns, based on square feet of retail space supply, remained the same as last year, with only one shift in the rankings: Farmington inched ahead of East Hartford into sixth place this year. It should be no surprise that the top three towns are Manchester, West Hartford, and Enfi eld, all regional retail hubs serving Greater Hartford. Manchester dominates the region with. million square feet of retail space; West Hartford comes in a distant second with.9 million square feet. However, it should be noted that the 1. million square foot Westfarms regional mall, which straddles the West Hartford/Farmington line, has a Farmington address but is very much rooted in the West Hartford retail hub. Consequently, Manchester retains number 1 rank in retail supply West Hartford is effectively a. million square foot retail hub. Among towns with at least, square feet of retail space, the lowest vacancy rates were found in West Hartford, Rocky Hill, and Newington, all under.%. Last year only Rocky Hill was under that threshold. Farmington and Plainville complete the top fi ve. Among towns with the highest vacancy rates, three towns remain above the % level, including East Windsor, East Hartford, and New Britain. Berlin was also above % last year but improved to 17.1%. Nevertheless it is still ranked fourth, followed by South Windsor. Vacancy by Tenant Size (Figure, Page ): Although the market experienced a substantial decline in vacancy last year, it was one size classifi cation in particular that deserves most of the credit. The,-9,999 square foot bracket dropped from 1.% all the way down to.7%, one of the largest declines ever reported. Grossman s Bargain Outlet now occupies part of a vacant Big Y No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 1 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Continued on page 7
KeyPoint Partners, LLC Custom Retail Market Research The KeyPoint Report Greater Hartford, CT 1 Figure : City & Town Rankings Manchester continues to top all communities with. million square feet of retail space. West Hartford ended the year ranked second with. million square feet, slightly ahead of Enfi eld. Among towns with at least, square feet of retail space, the highest vacancy rates are found in East Windsor, New Britain, and East Hartford, all hovering above %. Among the healthiest retail communities, West Hartford fi nished on top with a vacancy rate of.%, followed by Rocky Hill (.%) and Newington (.%). Most Space SF Lowest Vacancy* Prior Rank Highest Vacancy* Prior Rank Manchester West Hartford Enfi eld Hartford Newington Farmington East Hartford New Britain Vernon Bloomfi eld *For cities and towns with, square feet or more of retail space. Municipalities not meeting this threshold in prior year are denoted by N. Figure : Market Composition & Vacancy by Tenant Size The,-9,999 square foot tenant size dropped from a vacancy rate of 1.% all the way down to.7%, one of the largest declines we ve ever reported within an individual size classifi cation. The,-99,999 square foot classifi cation also showed signifi cant improvement, lowering its vacancy rate from 7.9% to.8%, while the only segment under 1, square feet to show improvement this year was the -,99 square foot category, which lowered its vacancy from 18.% to 17.%. While it has the highest vacancy rate among all categories, it has now shown back-to- back annual declines es. Tenant Size Market Share Less Than, SF, to,999 SF, to 9,999 SF,1,,17,1,89,,81,,8,,, 1,99, 1,,8 1,,7 1,1, 1, to,999 SF, to 9,999 SF, to 99,999 SF 1, to 199,999 SF, SF and above West Hartford Rocky Hill Newington Farmington Plainville Enfi eld Avon Canton Glastonbury Manchester 18.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.9% 11.7% 1.1%.%.%.%.%.%.% 7.% 7.% 8.% 8.8% 8 1 1 9 1 1 Vacancy Rate 1 Vacancy Rate 17.% 1.% 1.% 1.1%.7%.8%.%.% East Windsor New Britain East Hartford Berlin South Windsor Hartford Vernon Windsor Bloomfi eld Wethersfi eld 1.9% 1.7% 1.% 17.1% 1.% 1.% 1.1% 11.1% 1.8% 9.% 18.% 1.% 11.9% 1.% 1.% 7.9%.%.% 1 7 1 8 1 Hartford by night Hartford by night Observations Continued in East Hartford, Harbor Freight replaced a portion of a former A&P space in Berlin, and Goodwill took part of a space previously occupied by TJ Maxx in Avon, all of which contributed to the improvement in occupancy in this size classifi cation. In addition, Edge Fitness has committed to the former Border s space in Manchester and Hartford Health Care will replace a vacant A&P in Vernon, both expected to open this fall. The,-99,999 square foot classifi cation also showed signifi cant improvement, lowering its vacancy rate from 7.9% to.8%. The primary contributor was Ocean State Job Lot, which now occupies most of the space left behind by the A&P at Webster Square in Berlin. Ocean State closed its smaller store in the same center. The only category to end the year with higher vacancy was the,-9,999 square foot segment, with the fallout coming from closings of Pier 1 in Manchester, Salvation Army in Vernon, Family Dollar in New Britain, and True Value Hardware in Avon. Subway led slightly new store expansion Retailer Activity (Figure, Page 8): Fallas, a family-owned clothing retailer, acquired Conway Stores last year, and as a result now operates the former CW Price store in Wethersfi eld. This 9,8 square foot unit represents the most retail space added to the region by any retailer. Dave & Buster s opened last year in Manchester and is ranked second. Closely behind is Grossman s Bargain Outlet in East Hartford, which now shares a former Big Y unit with Cardio Express. With respect to additional store locations, there was not much to get excited about in Greater Hartford. The leader in the region was Subway, opening only four new locations. A couple of retailers added two stores, including Menchie s Yogurt and AT&T Wireless. Conversely, due to the aforementioned Fallas acquisition, CW Price led all retailers in space contraction. Mill Stores followed, closing its only store in the region in Manchester. Digiplex Cinemas sold its one unit to Carmike, ending the No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 1 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Continued on page 9 7
KeyPoint Partners, LLC Custom Retail Market Research The KeyPoint Report Greater Hartford, CT 1 Figure : Retailer Activity The region encompasses approximately 8,1 retail establishments, representing approximately, unique retailers. The following summarizes these by the degree of expansion and contraction. Expansion by SF Retailer New Total Fallas Dave & Busters Grossman s Bargain Outlet Cardio Express Carmike Cinemas Michael s Arts & Crafts Total Wine & More Ocean State Job Lot Goodwill Party City Expansion by # Stores Subway Sandwiches & Salads Menchie s Frozen Yogurt A T & T Wireless Sally Beauty Supply 9,,,, 1,8 1,,7 1, 1, 1, Retailer New Total NOTE: All other tenants experienced a net change of less than stores NOTE: All figures shown above are NET 9,,, 8, 1,8 17,,7 11,,1 7, 7 11 9 Contraction by SF Retailer Contracted Total C.W. Price Mill Stores Digiplex Cinemas Modell s Sporting Goods Staples Radio Shack The Pond House Verizon Wireless OneMain Financial Contraction by # Stores 9,,7 1,8,7 1, 1,8 11,9 7,, 1,8 1, 1, 8,1 Retailer Contracted Total Radio Shack Pinkberry Verizon Wireless OneMain Financial 7 1 Figure : Retail Category Activity Tenants in GRIID represent nearly unique business classifi cations; we have aggregated similar business types into larger retail categories, and summarized these by the degree of expansion and contraction. Expansion by SF Category New Total Health & Fitness Services Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Building Materials Amusement & Recreation Food Stores - Grocery Computer/Software Stores Eating Places Beauty Salons & Services Professional Services Auto Services Expansion by # Stores,, 9,,,1 1,,, 17,7 1,8 Category New Total Grocery Stores Professional Services Auto Services Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Eating Places Beauty Salons and Services Medical & Dental Services Amusement & Recreation Apparel - Family Apparel - Men s and Boys Contraction by SF Contraction by # Stores Observations Continued year in third place. Only three retailers closed two or more stores in the region: Radio Shack led the way with six units, followed by Verizon Wireless with three stores and OneMain Financial with two branches. Retail Categories (Figure, Page 9): Health & Fitness Services led in incremental square footage with an additional, square feet, the main contribution coming from a new Cardio Express in East Hartford. Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores followed with a, square foot gain, aided by the opening of the fi rst Total Wine & More in the region, which located in the former Modell s Sporting Goods space in Manchester. Restaurants fi nished third, adding,1 square feet. On the losing end, Furniture Stores experienced the largest contraction, dropping 1,7 square feet, largely caused by the closing of a,7 square foot Mill Stores location. Six Radio Shack closings in the region helped push Electronics stores into the number two spot, while the closing of two childcare centers contributed to Educational & School Services ending up in third place. Grocery Stores tied with Professional Services in incremental store count, each category adding units. Smaller grocery stores and tax services accounted for most of these gains. Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores and Auto Services followed, each with new locations. Electronic Stores lost 1 stores, with Radio Shack closings the main culprit. Gift Shops contracted by 7 units while Apparel - Children & Infants and Jewelry tied for third with declines of units each. Conclusions: Greater Hartford showed considerable improvement this year by absorbing much of the vacant space that has been saddling the local retail environment since 8. The vacancy rate in the region is now at its lowest level since 8, the year it last experienced a single digit vacancy rate. It is the fourth consecutive year of declining vacancy and, should the trend continue, the region should go above a 9% occupancy level once again in 1. While the current vacancy rate of 1.1% should still be regarded as excessive, a move back into high single digit range may be as good as it gets until signifi cant demolition of antiquated space or conversion to non-retail use occurs. Nevertheless, 1 should be regarded as a relatively productive year for the region s retail environment. Bob Sheehan Vice President of Research BSheehan@KeyPointPartners.com 8 No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 1 KeyPoint Partners, LLC 9 1,1, 791,8 1,, 1,7,,89,1 7,,81,7 1,111, 171,9, 1 11 9 1, 8 1 7 88 19 Category Contracted Total Furniture Stores Electronic Stores Educational & School Services Apparel & Accessory - Misc. Apparel - Children & Infants Sporting Goods Offi ce & Stationery Supplies Drinking Places Lawn & Garden Supply Equipment Rental Electronic Stores Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Shops Apparel - Children & Infants Jewelry Paint, Glass & Wallpaper Drinking Places Sporting Goods Bakery, Bagel & Doughnut Educational & School Services Cleaners & Laundry Services -1,7 -,9 -, -1,8-18,9-18,7-17, -1, -11, -1,8-1 -7 - - - - - - - - 97,, 11, 1, 7,1 87, 18,9 1,9 17, 11, Category Contracted Total 81 9 7 81 1 8 1
Figure 1: Total Current Restaurant Square Footage 1, 1, 1, 1, 8,,,, McDonalds Subway Burger King Panera Chili s Friendly s Bertucci s Wendy s KFC Ruby Tuesday Taco Bell Olive Garden Buffalo Wild Wings Denny s TGI Friday s Red Robin Outback Ninety-Nine Chipotle Boston Market D Angelo s IHOP Sliders Moe s Southwest Grill Five Guys Popeye s Jake s Wayback Burgers Plan B Special Section: A Ten-Year Look at Restaurants Over the past decade, the number of restaurants located within Greater Hartford has increased from 97 eateries in to a current level of 99 stores. It s worth noting, however, that a signifi cant dip in the number occurred at the height of the Great Recession, declining to 9 in 1. Since then, the restaurant count has rebounded to its current level, equating to a.% increase in the past fi ve years. However, that level of growth falls far short of the 1.% and 9.% gains seen in Eastern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, respectively (as noted in our KeyPoint Reports for those markets). Subway s 7 units consist of 111, square feet of retail space. With less than half the number of stores of Subway, McDonald s restaurants form the largest footprint in Greater Hartford with 19, square feet. A substantial drop-off occurs with Burger King, which is represented in the region with, square feet among stores. Figures 1 and illustrate the rankings among top restaurant chains in the region by square feet and number of stores. Although overall restaurant growth in the region was modest during the past decade, it doesn t necessarily refl ect the growth enjoyed by some of the largest chains in the region. As shown in Figure, Subway dominated restaurant expansion in the region, adding locations in the past ten years. Besides being the fastest-growing restaurant chain in the US, Subway, with its corporate headquarters in Milford and its fi rst ever location in Bridgeport, may be particularly committed to Connecticut. The top new guy in the region since, Chipotle (a Millennial favorite), opened seven stores, with six coming in the past fi ve years. Panera and Moe s Southwest Grill tied with fi ve new locations in the past decade; both added four of those stores just since 1. Five Guys added four new locations in the past ten years. Among all 8 chains that are ranked, seven experienced no change in store count while fi ve contracted. This entire group combined for 8 new stores, with of those units opening since 1. Figure : Total Current Restaurant Count 8 Figure : -1 Restaurant Count Change 7 1 1 1 - No net change Subway McDonalds Burger King Wendy s KFC Taco Bell Panera Friendly s D Angelo s Chipotle Chili s Ruby Tuesday Moe s Southwest Grill Bertucci s Boston Market Five Guys Denny s Olive Garden Buffalo Wild Wings TGI Friday s Red Robin Outback Ninety-Nine IHOP Sliders Popeye s Jake s Wayback Burgers Plan B Subway Chipotle Panera Moe s Southwest Grill Five Guys Popeye s Jake s Wayback Burgers Buffalo Wild Wings Plan B Chili s Bertucci s Taco Bell Denny s Red Robin IHOP Sliders McDonalds Wendy s KFC Ruby Tuesday Olive Garden TGI Friday s Outback Boston Market Burger King D Angelo s Ninety-Nine Friendly s 1 Copyright 1 KeyPoint Partners, rs, LLC 11 No owarranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice.
The KeyPoint Report 1 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA On the cover: Dusk in Downtown Hartford Methodology: The data for this study includes all public retail space in the study area except for a few exclusions discussed below. The information in our database has been compiled from a variety of sources. A member of KeyPoint Partners research staff has visited each store/shopping center in order to verify and/ or acquire the necessary information. The area for each space is obtained from sources deemed reliable, such as the owner or leasing agent, is paced off by our researchers or otherwise measured. Retail categories and SIC Codes are obtained from a leading business database, InfoUSA, when available. Each entry is fi eld verifi ed or determined by our research staff. In general, public retail space is characterized as all space currently, or most recently, utilized in selling or renting retail goods and/or services to the public. There are no size restrictions for stores or shopping centers. Certain retail classifi cations are excluded, including automobile dealerships, gasoline service stations, automobile repair shops and quasi-retail services, such as stock brokers, real estate agents, insurance agents, etc., unless such establishments are located in shopping centers containing typical retail tenants. In some cases wholesale or quasi-retail establishments have been included in the database if information from InfoUSA or our fi eld research indicates that goods and/or services are being offered to the public from the location. Some establishments available to the public but typically serving primarily the needs of other users of a facility, such as a cafeteria in an offi ce building or a beauty salon located inside a hotel, may also be excluded. Demographic information used in this study was provided by Scan/US. Custom Retail Market Research KeyPoint Partners provides retail research consulting services ranging from preliminary desktop assessments to comprehensive evaluations which integrate fi eld investigation and quantitative analysis for a variety of retail location and store types. The heart of our research superiority is our powerful, proprietary GRIID. Is there a custom retail market research project we can do for you? Call Bob Sheehan, Vice President of Research at 781.18.8, or email him at BSheehan@KeyPointPartners.com. Read our daily news blog, the KeyPoint Retail RoundUp; our monthly KeyPoints retail newsletter; and our annual KeyPoint Reports at KeyPointPartners.com Property Management Retail Leasing & Tenant Representation Investment Sales Construction Research & Consulting KeyPoint Partners, LLC One Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 18 Tel 781.7. Fax 781.7.88 KeyPointPartners.com Info@KeyPointPartners.com