Q4 2017 Results Property report MyHome.ie report in partnership with ASKING PRICE INFLATION ACCELERATES INTO DOUBLE-DIGIT TERRITORY IN 2017
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Angela Keegan Managing Director MyHome.ie In this issue Our Q4 property report which is published in association with Davy is forecasting that house price inflation will increase by 8% in 2018. While this is a welcome reduction on the 10%+ we saw in 2017, it is still more than one would like to see and is not sustainable in the long term. Following a dramatic surge during the summer of 2017 prices eased somewhat in Q3 before falling slightly as per seasonal norms in Q4. It s interesting to note that asking prices have fallen in the final quarter of each of the last five years before bouncing back in the spring and that is a pattern we expect to see happening once again in 2018. The price increases of 2017 were largely driven by strong jobs growth, rising incomes and increasing competition among buyers for the limited number of homes available. Of course, the Help to Buy scheme and the easing of mortgage lending rules by the Central Bank of Ireland led to an increase in firsttime-buyer activity, as well as an increase in prices. As we predicted back then prices hit double digit growth as a result of those policy interventions. While transactions were up a welcome 10% in 2017, supply, or rather the lack of it, remains the key issue and will continue to be for the medium term. The housing crisis will be the key test for the Government and it was interesting to see the Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe acknowledge that when he effectively staked the Government s reputation on resolving the housing crisis in a recent interview. Commentary from Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist, Davy Research...4 Property price register analysis...9 Three bed semi-detached asking prices...10 Dublin analysis...11 Regional analysis...12 About the report...16 Q4 highlights...18 About the Davy Group...19 So no shortage of talking points as we head into 2018. We hope you will take some time to study the latest price movements all over the country and our analysis of where the market is going in the coming year. I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you and all our readers a very Happy New Year.
ASKING PRICE INFLATION ACCELERATES INTO DOUBLE-DIGIT TERRITORY Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist, Davy Research T he latest MyHome report shows a small 1% drop in asking prices in the final three months of 2017. However, this is in line with normal seasonal trends. Asking prices have fallen in the final quarter of each of the last five years before bouncing back in the spring. We expect a similar pattern in early 2018. In fact, the 1% fall is smaller than the 2% decline in Q4 2016, so annual asking price inflation has accelerated to 10.2%. The Irish housing market grinds tighter as lack of supply continues the dominant feature. The 18,900 properties listed for sale is down 9% on last year, with properties being snapped up ever more quickly by homebuyers. Homebuilding remains well below natural demographic demand, albeit rising quickly from a very low base. Encouragingly, Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy has unveiled apartment standards that reduce the cost of construction. Overall, housing market transactions look set to rise by 10% in volume terms in 2017 towards 55,000. We expect transactional activity to grow further in 2018, helped by Irish households building equity in their homes and therefore being more willing to move. This time last year, the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) eased its mortgage lending rules, eliminating restrictions on loans above 220,000 on the number of first-time buyers could take out 90% loan-to-value mortgages. This led to a sharp pick-up in asking prices in early 2017, leading us to revise upwards our forecasts for house price inflation in 2017 into double-digit territory. Suffice to say our predictions have been borne out by the price gains since then. We have now come almost full circle. This year, the CBI has tightened the mortgage lending rules. The proportion of high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages (over 3.5x) given to first-time buyers was 24% in H1 2017 and will have to fall back to the 20% stipulated under the new rules cooling house price inflation in more expensive areas in 2018. Dublin accounted for the lion s share of high LTI mortgages in H1 2017, 62% of the total. The median first-time buyer house price in Dublin was 321,000 far higher than the 238,000 national figure. Homebuyers in Dublin have been taking out ever higher levels of mortgage debt the availability of which will be curtailed slightly in 2018. Looking ahead to 2018, we still expect a robust pace of house price inflation close to 8%. However, the pattern of house prices we had seen up to 2017 is likely to be re-established. Double-digit price gains are still likely outside the capital, where the recovery began later, prices are cheaper and there is still scope for leverage on mortgage lending to rise. Dublin should see a more sedate mid-single-digit gain, similar to the 6.6% rise recorded through 2016. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 4
Asking prices, Dublin and national Table 1 Source: MyHome.ie Price ( ) % change quarter-on-quarter National (stock) 228,000 0.1% 6.2% Dublin (stock) 318,000-0.4% 6.3% National (new instructions) 250,000-1.0% 10.2% Dublin (new instructions) 364,000-0.4% 11.1% % change year-on-year Asking price inflation accelerates to 10.2% The latest MyHome report shows that asking prices on the latest properties listed for sale fell by 1% in Q4 2017. However, this is in line with the usual seasonal drop in prices towards the end of the calendar year before they typically rebound in the spring. The better annual comparison shows prices up 10.2% over the past 12 months, the fastest pace of inflation since early 2015. The Central Statistics Office s official Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose by 12.1% in the year to October 2017. Ireland s recovery, the Help-to-Buy scheme, a loosening of the mortgage lending rules in late 2016 and the lack of housing supply all appear to have contributed to further price gains. However, outside Dublin, RPPI inflation picked up only slightly from 11.2% in December 2016 to 12.8% in October 2017. The real acceleration has been in the capital, Dublin, where price inflation rose from 6.6% in December to 11.6% in October. Similarly, the MyHome asking price measure for the capital is up 11.1%. However, we still expect Irish house price inflation to slow in 2018. Notably, the CBI has now tightened its mortgage lending rules. This should slow the process of rising leverage in Ireland s housing market, particularly in the capital where affordability is most stretched. Hence, we still expect 8% RPPI inflation through 2018, albeit probably split between further Asking prices, Dublin and national Figure 1 yoy % 30 National Asking Prices (New Instructions) Dublin Asking Prices (New Instructions) 20 10 0-10 -15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: MyHome.ie MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 5
Stock of properties listed for sale, Dublin and national Figure 2 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Dublin (LHS) National (RHS) Ex-Dublin (RHS) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: MyHome.ie double-digit gains outside the capital and more sedate mid-single-digit rises in Dublin. Housing market activity still gradually recovering Property Price Register data indicate that residential property market transactions grew by 10% in volume terms to around 55,000 in the calendar year 2017. This is a welcome improvement in activity levels. Nonetheless, the overall picture is still an illiquid market hindered by the lack of fresh housing supply. At current transaction rates, the average Irish home is sold just once every 36 years. Several indicators in the Q4 2017 MyHome report show that the housing market continues to grind tighter becoming increasingly more difficult for would-be buyers. At end-2017, the number of properties listed for sale had fallen to just 18,900. This is a fresh record low, down 9.4% on the year representing less than 1% of the housing stock. Not surprisingly, the average time to sale agreed was just 3.8 months nationally and 2.8 months in Dublin, illustrating that whatever stock is for sale is sold ever more quickly. Looking forward to 2018, a further improvement in housing market liquidity is likely. Poor homebuilding levels will continue to hold back transaction levels. However, many Irish households have been unwilling to move home due to their stretched finances, 2 Proportion of mortgages in negative equity at end-year Table 2 Owner - occupier Buy -to-let 2012 36% 55% 2014 20% 35% 2016 12% 23% September 2017 9% 16% Source: Central Bank of Ireland MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 6
specifically their lack of housing equity. However, rising house prices have now dragged all but 9% of owneroccupiers out of negative equity, a stark improvement from the 36% at end-2012. With greater equity in their homes, more Irish households will seek to move home in 2018. Homebuilding sector growing from weak levels Ireland still does not have a reliable measure of homebuilding. Eventually, the new Building Control Management System (BCMS) will form the basis of a more reliable measure of housing completions. For now, a range of indicators still suggest that housing supply is picking up rapidly but from a very low base. Figure 5 shows that electricity supply grid connections (+28%), BCMS commencements (+36%), HomeBond registrations (+84%), stamp duty filings on new homes (+40%) and planning permissions (+15%) all point to accelerating activity. However, the true level of housing supply is still not clear. That said, on any of these measures, activity is still well below our estimated demand of 35-50,000 units per annum. The latest measures to support housing supply are the new design standards for apartments published on December 18th. These allow developments to include a greater proportion (up to 50% in urban areas) of one-bedroom apartments. Furthermore, the number of required dual aspect apartments within developments has been reduced from 50% to 33% and unit per core increased to 12 from 8 previously. The guidelines also provide less onerous restrictions for the build-to-rent sector in terms of product mix and seek to eliminate or substantially reduce the requirement for car parking space in urban locations close to public transport. However, concrete action on building heights appears to have been deferred until the adoption of the National Planning Framework (due in 2018). Tighter mortgage lending rules will be felt in Dublin Typically, would-be homebuyers in Ireland have reacted to a lack of housing supply by taking out greater levels of mortgage debt, forcing prices higher. This process certainly seems to have played out over the past 12 months. Figure 6 illustrates that the average mortgage loan for house purchase was 221,000 in Q3 2017, up 11% on the 199,000 recorded one year ago. The CBI has now tightened its mortgage lending rules for 2018. Previously, up to 20% of new mortgage loans for house purchase were allowed to have a LTI exceeding 3.5x. The new rule reduces this allocation; only 10% of new mover-purchaser loans will now be allowed a LTI ratio over 3.5x. The allocation is left unchanged for first-time buyers at 20%. In H1 2017, 24% of first-time buyers and 10% 3 Indicators of construction activity Table 3 Period 2016 2017 % change ESB Electricity supply grid connections Jan - Oct 11797 15062 27.7% Commencements Jan - Oct 11000 14917 35.6% Home bond registrations Jan - Oct 4548 8363 83.9% Stamp duty returns, new homes Filings Jan - Oct 5641 7915 40.3% Executions Jan - Oct 5332 6754 26.7% Planning permissions, units Jan - Sep 12046 13842 14.9% Property Price Register, new homes Jan - Dec 5729 7968 34.4% Help-to-buy claims Jan - Dec 1287 3654 183.9% Source: Central Statistics Office MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 7
of mover-purchasers had a LTI ratio over 3.5x. So the new rules mean that Irish banks will have to tighten credit availability in 2018. This should slow house price inflation, particularly in Dublin where affordability has become most stretched. Table 4 shows that the median first-time buyer income in Average mortgage loan for house purchase and Residential Property Price Index Figure 3 140 2005=100 000s 300 120 250 100 80 200 60 150 40 100 20 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 50 Average Loan for House Purchase Irish Residential Property Price Index Source: Banking & Payments Federation Ireland Source: Banking & Payments Federation Ireland MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 8
Dublin was 76,700 in Q3 2017 with a median house price of 321,400 implying a price to income ratio of 4.2x versus 3.7x across Ireland. Hence, Irish house price inflation is likely to return to a similar pattern to that in 2016. Through 2016, RPPI inflation in Dublin was 6.6%, 11.2% outside Dublin and 9% across the entire country. Looking forward to 2018, double-digit growth outside the capital is still likely as the process of catch-up continues and as leverage on mortgage lending continues to rise. However, stretched affordability coupled with the constraint of the mortgage lending rules should slow house price inflation in Dublin to mid-single-digit levels. Property Price Register analysis Total transactions in Ireland s residential property market look set to finish the calendar year 2017 at around 13.5-14.0bn. This represents significant growth from the 12.2bn recorded in 2016, with transaction volumes set to grow by 10% in volume terms towards 55,000 by the end of 2017. The Property Price Register update on December 13th indicated that there were 46,885 transactions so far in 2017 worth 12.5bn. In the first three quarters of 2017, there were 37,580 transactions up 9.7% on the same period of 2016. Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show that there were 20,700 mortgage loans for house purchase in the first three quarters of 2017, up 20% on the year. Cash sales accounted for 33% of purchases in Q3 2017, down from a peak of 45% in 2013, although this measure excludes non-household buyers. Median characteristics of mortgage lending by region Table 4 Dublin Dublin commuter belt Other cities Rest of Leinster Rest of Munster Rest of Connacht & Ulster National First-time buyers Deposit 52,800 35,000 27,500 22,250 22,000 22,000 35,057 Incomes 76,709 65,984 60,771 56,475 57,000 57,000 65,000 House price-to-income 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 Price 321,411 244,801 210,268 178,461 182,400 182,400 237,900 Implied loan-to-income 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 Mover-purchasers Deposit 125,038 74,000 75,130 49,000 46,750 48,325 84,300 Incomes 120,677 96,100 90,253 78,371 85,613 76,690 99,301 House price-to-income 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.4 Price 469,434 332,506 286,102 233,546 233,723 197,860 337,623 Implied loan-to-income 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.6 Source: Banking & Payments Federation Ireland MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 9
3 BED SEMI-DETACHED ASKING PRICES DONEGAL 96,500 1.58% l -54.05% LEITRIM 94,000 4.44% l -58.95% MONAGHAN SLIGO 150,000 3.45% l -42.86% 129,500 0.39% l -54.96% CAVAN MAYO ROSCOMMON 125,000-2.91% l -43.18% LOUTH 110,000-8.33% l -52.17% 70,000-6.67% l -68.89% 185,000 0% l -43.77% LONGFORD 75,000 7.14% l -65.12% MEATH 210,000 0% l -36.36% WESTMEATH GALWAY DUBLIN 139,950-0.02% l -48.17% 195,000-2.01% l -34.45% 295,000-1.34% l -37.23% KILDARE OFFALY 210,000 2.44% l -4 130,000 0.97% l -55.17% WICKLOW LAOIS CLARE CARLOW 150,000 0.02% l -43.82% Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) LIMERICK 145,725 3.17% -44.43% TIPPERARY 162,500 3.83% l -32.29% KILKENNY 135,000 0% l -41.30% 160,000-3.03% l -45.11% WEXFORD 155,000 0% l -48.16% WATERFORD KERRY 142,750-0.87% l -41.73% 293,000 2.81% l -34.53% 137,475 1.83% l -45.01% 165,000 6.49% l -42.11% CORK asse t management c apital marke ts 225,000 corpor ate l -32.84% finance private clients rese arch COUNTY ANALYSIS Median asking price Q4 2017 % change Q4 2017 l % change from peak Colour variations Source: MyHome.ie MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 10
DUBLIN ANALYSIS The capital has seen the sharpest acceleration in house price inflation over the past 12 months. From a trough of just 2.5% in June 2016, RPPI inflation in Dublin accelerated to 11.6% in October. The pick-up has been broad-based across the city with Dublin city (12.9%), Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown (9.7%), Fingal (12.2%) and South Dublin (14.4%) all seeing close to double-digit gains in the year to October. DUBLIN OVERALL 295,000-1.34% DUBLIN NORTH The MyHome data for Q4 2017 show little sign of any slowdown. Asking prices on the latest properties listed for sale in Dublin fell by 0.4% in the final quarter. However, this reflects the usual seasonal drop 284,950 1.77% in prices at the end of the calendar year. Asking prices in Dublin are still up 11% year-on-year. The median asking price for a three-bedroom, semi-detached house in Dublin was 295,000 in Q4 2017, up 3.5% on the year. For larger four-bedroom, detached houses, the median asking price was 633,000 up 5.4% on the year. Dublin North city saw a sharp 28% annual gain in the median asking price to 230,000, although this largely reflects changes in the mix of properties. Dublin South remains the most expensive part of the city with a median asking price of 350,000. DUBLIN WEST 240,000 0.02% DUBLIN NORTH CITY 230,000 4.55% DUBLIN SOUTH CITY 257,000-6% DUBLIN SOUTH Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) 349,000-0.29% asse t management c apital marke ts DUBLIN REGION Median price Q4 2017 rese arch corpor ate finance private clients % Change Q4 2017 Colour variations Source: MyHome.ie MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 11
REGIONAL ANALYSIS The median asking price on new properties listed for sale outside of Dublin was 242,000 in Q4 2017, up 7.6% on the year. In Dublin, the median asking price was 285,000 up 3.6% on the year. In the commuter belt counties, Meath saw a 4.3% rise to 240,000 now equal to the median price in Kildare. In Wicklow, the median asking price increased by 1.4% to 299,000. Leinster Asking prices in Carlow rose 19.7% to 179,500, while prices in Offaly saw a 17.9% increase to 165,000. Prices in Westmeath increased by 12.3% (also to 165,000). More expensive areas have seen more modest gains. In Kilkenny, prices rose by 6.9% to 192,500, in Louth by 8.1% to 200,000 and in Wexford by 6.9% to 185,000. Prices in Laois increased by 3.3% to 155,000. Longford remains the cheapest county in Leinster with the median asking price 105,000, up 6.6% on the year. Munster Asking prices across Munster show a broadly consistent picture of a rising market. In Clare, the median price was 170,000 up just 0.3% on the year. However, in Cork, prices were up 5.7% to 227,000. In Cork city, the median price was 240,000 up 4.3% on the year. In Kerry, prices were flat on the year at 170,000. However, prices in Limerick rose by 6% to 158,000 and by 7.1% in Limerick city to 150,000. In Tipperary, prices increased by 2.5% to 151,000 and by 6.9% in Waterford to 170,000. In Waterford city, the median price rose by 9% on the year to 120,000. Connacht/Ulster Prices in Galway continued to show strong upward momentum, up 7.6% over the past 12 months to 199,000. In Galway city, prices increased by 9.1% to 240,000. Mayo also saw a strong 5% rise to 146,000, and prices in Sligo rose by 8.5% to 140,000. However, Leitrim (+0.4%) and Roscommon (+0.1%) have seen more sedate increases to 109,000 and 110,000 respectively. In Ulster, Monaghan saw a 5% rise in prices over the past year to 147,000. However, asking prices fell slightly in Cavan, by 1.6% to 150,000, and by 3.7% in Donegal to 130,000. Monaghan saw a 7.1% annual gain to 150,000. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 12
REGIONAL ANALYSIS GALWAY CITY 240,000-2.04% LIMERICK CITY 150,000-1.64% WATERFORD CITY 120,000 Davy Davy + Scope of business (Side) CORK CITY 240,000 asse t management c apital REGIONmarke ts Median price Q4 2017 corpor ate finance private clients rese arch % change Q4 2017 Colour variations Source: MyHome.ie MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 13
County analysis: two-bedroom apartments Apartment prices in Ireland recorded price increases over the past 12 months in all but six counties. In Dublin, prices were up 4.3% to 240,000. In the commuter belt counties, prices were up by 12% in Kildare to 165,000, by 8% in Meath to 145,000 and by 9% in Wicklow to 230,000. However, price gains have been even stronger in other areas. In Cork, two-bedroom apartment prices increased by 25% over the past 12 months to 175,000 and by 19% in Galway to 155,000. Clare (23%), Laois (24%), Offaly (27%) and Roscommon (31%) have also seen annual price gains exceeding 20%. 2-bed apartments asking prices County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Dublin MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 14 Q4 2017 75,000 69,000 80,000 175,000 45,000 155,000 110,000 165,000 125,000 95,000 79,000 85,000 57,000 95,000 100,000 145,000 80,000 75,000 49,000 70,000 62,500 69,000 87,500 100,000 229,500 240,000 Quarterly change 6.15% 3.23% -2.78% 3.33% 5.26% 6.45% 7.95% 3.27% -1.73% 3.64% -13.64% 7.41% -3.03% -6.22% 1.45% 5.04% 2.94% 2.00% -2.04% Table 3 Annual change -9.09% 2.99% 23.08% 25.00% 19.23% -21.43% 11.86% 8.70% 24.18% 13.02% 13.33% 15.15% -5.00% 8.21% 6.67% 27.12% 30.67% 16.67% 13.64% 15.00% 16.67% 9.29% 4.35% Source: MyHome.ie
County analysis: four-bedroom, semi-detached Prices of four-bedroom, semi-detached houses have increased over the past year in 20 of the 26 counties. In Dublin, the median asking price was 420,000 down 1.2% on the year but still the most expensive across Ireland. Among the commuter belt counties, the median price in Kildare was 275,000 (up 0.9%) and in Meath was 250,000 (up 1.8%). However, prices in Wicklow were up 4.2% on the year to 375,000. The more expensive areas continue to see solid gains. In Cork, asking prices rose by 10% to 275,000 and by 4.2% in Galway to 198,000. Kilkenny saw a 9.3% gain to 235,000. Longford and Roscommon remain the cheapest counties in Ireland to buy four-bedroom houses, both recording a median asking price of 100,000. Kerry saw the sharpest rise across Ireland, up 19% on the year to 170,000. 4-bed semi-detached asking prices County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Dublin Source: MyHome.ie Q4 2017 188,000 150,000 174,975 275,000 125,000 198,000 170,000 275,000 235,000 155,000 104,950 195,000 100,000 232,499 137,500 249,500 176,000 179,950 100,000 167,000 160,000 185,000 179,950 175,000 375,000 420,000 Quarterly change 2.45% 3.45% -0.01% -0.89% -1.96% -1-3.13% -4.59% -7.14% 6.67% 1.09% -1.08% 0.20% 5.07% -0.01% 0.50% -1.76% 1.43% -2.12% 2.83% 2.94% -1.32% -2.33% Table 4 Annual change 14.11% 9.13% 12.89% 1-3.85% 4.21% 19.30% 0.92% 9.30% -7.19% -5.84% -1.02% 14.32% 6.90% -3.34% 1.84% 8.31% 4.32% 18.34% 5.03% 8.66% 2.78% 6.80% 11.46% 4.17% -1.18% MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 15
ABOUT THE REPORT Graham Neary, CFA, Dublin Graham is an independent financial analyst who specialises in investment consulting services. He previously managed portfolios for an international mutual organisation in London with over 14 billion in assets under management and one million members across Canada, the US and the UK. He has eight years of financial marketplace experience, holds a degree in mathematics from Trinity College Dublin, and is a CFA Charterholder (Chartered Financial Analyst). MyHome.ie Property Report: The Method The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie with comparisons by quarter over the last eight years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationwide. The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Our data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie. Our main indices have been constructed with a widely-used regression technique which adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured. Our method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix. For detailed statistics at a local level, we also provide a wide selection of median asking prices broken down by county or by urban location. For analysis of the Property Price Register prices were adjusted upwards to account for VAT where necessary, and only full market value prices were used. No silver bullet for Ireland s housing crisis. MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 16
RAW DATA Q4 2006 - Q4 2017 RAW DATA Q3 2006 - Q3 2017 Table 7 INDICES National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 138.57 139.24 134.67 139.23 Q2 2007 137.57 138.80 137.85 137.59 Q4 2007 136.30 134.64 136.16 136.43 Q2 2008 132.29 130.23 131.68 132.50 Q4 2008 122.08 118.40 124.59 121.84 Q2 2009 112.90 107.03 114.14 112.69 Q4 2009 104.25 96.76 105.95 104.02 Q2 2010 97.41 88.77 97.01 97.32 Q4 2010 90.59 82.07 91.88 90.33 Q2 2011 83.40 74.82 87.88 82.91 Q4 2011 78.80 70.02 85.80 78.17 Q2 2012 70.78 61.69 82.25 70.18 % Change National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 1.28% -0.28% 0.56% 1.42% Q2 2007-0.43% -0.06% 1.43% -0.73% Q4 2007-0.21% -1.36% -0.88% -0.12% Q2 2008-1.53% -2.01% -1.83% -1.48% Q4 2008-2.96% -4.37% -2.66% -3.00% Q2 2009-1.48% -2.33% -0.61% -1.59% Q4 2009-3.54% -4.11% -3.74% -3.45% Q2 2010-3.37% -4.52% -4.27% -3.31% Q4 2010-3.24% -3.39% -3.44% -3.16% Q2 2011-3.99% -5.22% -0.58% -4.27% Q4 2011 Q2 2012-2.36% -3.23% -2.76% -4.72% -0.91% -1.21% -2.47% -3.16% Standard Price National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2006 414,374 532,642 360,714 422,990 Q2 2007 411,373 530,979 369,248 418,002 Q4 2007 407,565 515,053 364,713 414,468 Q2 2008 395,597 498,194 352,707 402,545 Q4 2008 365,057 452,921 333,730 370,139 Q2 2009 337,603 409,448 305,716 342,343 Q4 2009 311,727 370,137 283,795 316,019 Q2 2010 291,278 339,598 259,845 295,657 Q4 2010 270,886 313,965 246,108 274,429 Q2 2011 249,385 286,227 235,400 251,893 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 235,642 211,651 267,865 235,983 229,809 220,314 237,474 213,214 RAW DATA Q4 2006 - Q4 2017 Table 8 INDICES National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012 67.16 61.64 78.07 66.76 Q2 2013 64.71 62.22 73.81 64.54 Q4 2013 63.23 63.10 71.41 63.22 Q2 2014 63.61 66.75 68.11 63.82 Q4 2014 64.91 70.27 64.20 65.35 Q2 2015 67.48 73.71 67.00 68.00 Q4 2015 68.57 74.74 67.04 69.01 Q2 2016 71.14 77.43 72.19 71.60 Q4 2016 71.88 78.14 76.42 72.21 Q2 2017 75.06 81.97 81.10 75.39 Q4 2017 76.32 83.09 86.63 76.53 % Change National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012-2.94% -1.64% -3.22% -2.83% Q2 2013-1.93% 0.98% -2.43% -1.76% Q4 2013-0.89% 0.55% -2.58% -0.82% Q2 2014 1.32% 4.45% -2.25% 1.60% Q4 2014 0.59% 2.19% 0.10% 0.66% Q2 2015 1.71% 2.31% 1.65% 1.80% Q4 2015-0.06% -1.48% -0.08% Q2 2016 2.47% 2.03% 4.91% 2.47% Q4 2016 0.13% 0.51% 0.89% 0.04% Q2 2017 2.80% 3.18% 5.04% 2.79% Q4 2017 0.12% -0.36% 4.30% -0.06% Standard Price National Dublin New 2nd Hand Q4 2012 200,836 235,787 209,114 202,806 Q2 2013 193,488 238,013 197,699 196,058 Q4 2013 189,086 241,392 191,266 192,071 Q2 2014 190,216 255,362 182,449 193,878 Q4 2014 194,089 268,816 171,963 198,543 Q2 2015 201,798 281,958 179,452 206,581 Q4 2015 205,031 285,921 179,557 209,639 Q2 2016 212,725 296,190 193,352 217,527 Q4 2016 214,931 298,912 204,697 219,379 Q2 2017 224,452 313,586 217,239 229,034 Q4 2017 228,225 317,842 232,044 232,513 MyHome.ie Property Property Report: Report: Q4 Q2 2017 2015 17 17
Q4 Highlights Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Number of properties on the site 20,875 18,024 (-13.7%) Number of properties sold from PPR ** Properties sold as of PPR update December 20th 2017 (Sales Jan November 2017) 43,4424 6,840 Number of New Properties on the Market 5,479 6,233 (+13.8%) National Average time to Sale Agreed 4 months 4 months National Average asking price 214,931 228,225 * data from PSRA as of September 27th 2017 MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 18
ABOUT THE DAVY GROUP Established in 1926, the Davy Group is Ireland s leading provider of wealth management, asset management, capital markets, and financial advisory services. Davy is headquartered in Dublin, with offices in London, Belfast, Cork and Galway. Employing over 670 people, Davy offers a broad range of services to private clients, small businesses, corporations and institutional investors, and organise its activities around four interrelated business areas Wealth and Asset Management, Capital Markets, Corporate Finance and Research. Davy s Wealth and Asset Management business manages over 14bn on behalf of Irish and International clients*. Davy is Ireland s leading wealth manager providing a financial planning led private client service backed up by global investment portfolios driven by a proprietary investment process. As the leading broker in the Irish market, we accounted for over 46%** of all dealings in Irish equities on the Irish Stock Exchange in 2015. Davy is a primary dealer in Irish Government Bonds and acts as arranger on most Irish corporate bond issues. We advise 56%** of companies on the Irish Stock Exchange, including 6 of Ireland s top 10 listed companies*. We are Ireland s leading ESM and AIM adviser, representing approximately 75% of companies quoted on the ESM market**, and 17 companies quoted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange***. Davy is responsible for over 75% of funds raised on the Irish Stock Exchange in 2014 and 2015** and has been consistently recognised by the world s top names in financial services for the quality of research and service. * Data correct as of January 2016 ** Source: Irish Stock Exchange *** Source: London Stock Exchange asset management capital markets corporate finance private clients research MyHome.ie Property Report: Q4 2017 19
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