ANZ RESEARCH AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY AUSTRALIAN HOUSING CHARTBOOK JULY 1 CONTRIBUTORS David Cannington Senior Economist +1 97 7 David.Cannington@anz.com Paul Braddick Head of Property Research +1 97 987 Paul.Braddick@anz.com Ivan Colhoun Head of Australian Economics & Property Research +1 97 178 Ivan.Colhoun@anz.com The Australian housing market has shown tentative signs of stabilisation in 1, following a period of considerable softness through 11. Sales activity has improved, albeit from extreme lows, buoyed by the positive impact of underlying strength in housing market fundamentals, further consolidation of household financial stability and improving housing affordability. Financial uncertainty stemming from the European sovereign debt crisis has driven Australian households to further strengthen their financial positions. Household savings have continued to increase and household income growth remains solid while household credit growth has been sluggish for almost four years. Nonetheless, divergent economic performance across states will maintain softer labour market conditions outside of the resources states. This presents a higher risk of household financial pressure and an increased likelihood of some distressed sales in housing markets outside of the resources states, particularly in Tasmania and Victoria. Despite 11 Census data showing the Australian population level to be lower than previously estimated (9, lower at. million), weak housing construction continues to drive further tightening of housing market balances. Forward indicators suggest net overseas migration, while slow to pick up to the end of 11, will increase through 1 and weak building approvals are adding further upward pressure to the outlook for the existing undersupply of housing. This tightness in the housing market is maintaining low rental vacancy rates and driving upward pressure on rents, particularly in the Sydney, Perth and Brisbane markets. Softening house prices and low mortgage rates have combined to improve housing affordability. Increased global economic uncertainty and job security concerns in some sectors of the economy are weighing on sentiment and house prices, however improving housing affordability and strengthening housing market fundamentals should support further stabilisation in housing market activity and house prices through the second half of 1. Improved housing affordability, tightening housing market balance pressures and upward pressure on rents are likely to support both first home buyer and investor housing market activity in the years ahead. Looking through the distortions created by first home buyer policy incentives, first home buyer and investor housing finance growth improved moderately in the first quarter of 1. AUSTRALIAN HOUSING MARKET BALANCE AND RENTS 7 Real rents (lhs) Real rents - forecast (lhs) Annual change in housing market balance - 1 month lag (rhs) Annual change in housing market balance - forecast, 1 month lag (rhs) 7 Annual % change 1 1 Dwellings ('s) -1-1 Excess - - - 8 87 89 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 - Sources: ABS, ANZ
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / of 1 KEY INDICATORS MARKET ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY WEAK SENTIMENT Indicators show that household caution continues to drive a wedge between housing market activity and underlying fundamentals. While recently showing some gradual improvement, market activity (sales, days on market, prices) remains soft, fuelled by global economic and financial market uncertainty and a protracted behavioural shift towards increased debt aversion. Recent growth in first home buyer housing finance signals the positive impact of both improving housing affordability and tight market fundamentals. The removal of the NSW first home buyer stamp duty exemptions for existing homes from 1 January 1 has temporarily dampened this impact. Despite 11 Census data showing the Australian population level to be lower than previously estimated (-9,), population growth and underlying housing demand remains little changed and net migration remains a significant pressure on the housing stock. Consequently, the fundamentals of the Australian housing market remain generally solid. Skills shortages, particularly in the mining and related professional services sectors, have driven recent increases in net arrivals, indicating population growth is about to re-accelerate. Combined with a weak outlook for residential construction, we expect the underlying shortage of housing to increase in the years ahead, pushing rental vacancies lower, rents higher and eventually supporting house prices. House prices Market balance Australian capital cities average Cumulative market balance Cumulative market balance (ex-migration surge) (ex-migration surge) Forecasts $ (sa) 1 1 Dwellings ('s) 1 1 - Excess 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1-1 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 Population growth 1, Building approvals Private sector houses (Trend) Private sector houses (Seas Adj) Private sector other residential* (Trend) Private sector other residential* (Seas Adj) 1, Annualised - 's 1 Number 8,,, 1 Net Movements Net Overseas Migration 1 7 8 9 1 11 1, * Flats, units, apartments, semi-detached/row/terrace houses 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Housing finance Rents vs vacancies 1 1 Upgrader Investor First home buyer 1 1 Rental vacancy rate (-qtr moving ave, rhs) Rent growth (nominal, lhs) CPI (core, lhs) $bil, annualised trend 8 Annual % change 8 % of total rental stock 1 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Sources: ABS, Residex, REIA, ANZ Q-1991 Q-199 Q-199 Q-1997 Q-1999 Q-1 Q- Q- Q-7 Q-9 Q-11
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / of 1 VALUATION MEASURES AUSTRALIAN HOUSE PRICE SOFTNESS REFLECTS BETTER VALUE WITHOUT ECONOMIC STRESS A combination of lower interest rates, falling house prices and rising household incomes has driven Australian house purchase affordability to better than long-run average levels. In contrast to many other developed economies, this has happened in the absence of a significant economic downturn and the associated stress on household finances. ANZ analysis of long-run trends in house prices, household income and interest rates (ignoring other drivers of house price growth, including housing market balance and mortgage lending criteria) shows the recent softness in Australian house prices has been mainly driven by weak household sentiment rather than economic fundamentals, with prices continuing to fall below expected house prices at current household income levels and mortgage rates. Cross-country comparisons using partial valuation measures - often used to contend the case of overvaluation of Australian house prices - continue to reflect broader economic and housing market differences, while revealing little about the future direction of house prices. These measures, including house price to income ratios and rental yields, do not address other drivers of house prices, including economic growth and unemployment, population growth, housing stock, net household wealth, household financial stability, government policy, housing credit risk and mortgage lending standards. House prices and house purchasing power* House price to purchasing power* $7, $, $, $, $, $, $1, $ -$1, Interest rate contribution to simulated house price** Income growth contribution to simulated house price*** Actual house prices 87 89 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 Represents the average households purchasing power over the median priced home * ** Calculated using trend discounted variable bank mortgage rate *** Calculated using average household disposable income $, House price deviation from house purchasing power (% of actual house price) - - - -8 Australia US UK NZ Canada * Represents the average households purchasing power over the median priced home Mar 8 Mar 87 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 99 Mar Mar Mar 8 Mar 11 International house prices House price to income ratios House price index (March =1) Mortgage costs as % of mean household disposable income Australia US UK NZ Canada China Singapore Hong Kong 1 19 17 1 1 11 9 7 Dec Dec Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec 1 Dec 11 Housing affordability 1 Australia US UK NZ Canada 1 Jan 9 Jan 9 Jan 9 Jan 98 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 8 Jan 1 Jan 1 House price to average household disposable income ratio 7 Australia US UK NZ Canada Jan 9 Jan 9 Jan 9 Jan 98 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 8 Jan 1 Jan 1 Rental yield (%) International rental yield 1 Aust US UK 1 1 1 8 Mar 9 Mar 98 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 8 Mar 1 Mar 1 Sources: ABS, RBA, RP Data-Rismark, S&P/Case-Shiller, Nationwide, RBNZ, Teranet National Bank, Global Property Guide, ANZ
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / of 1 UNDERLYING DEMAND LEADING INDICATORS SUGGEST POPULATION GROWTH WILL SUPPORT UNDERLYING DEMAND Since, net overseas migration has largely driven Australian population growth and supported strong underlying demand for housing. While recent data show moderation in net permanent and long-term arrivals, annualised net movements of, at May 1 are expected to drive population growth and continue to support underlying demand for housing in the years ahead. While interstate migration activity is higher than post-gfc levels, it remains low as a share of population. This measure is expected to pick-up moderately through 1-1 due to divergence in labour market conditions and housing affordability across states and territories. While divergent economic conditions across states and territories are already driving strong population growth and demand for housing in WA (with 1 of the top fastest growing local government areas), moderate population growth in NSW and Victoria will continue to support the significant existing shortage of housing in these states (see Appendix). Combined with weak dwelling construction, population growth is already squeezing rental markets, driving increases in rental growth and yields, and building fundamental demand for first home buyers and lower priced housing. Market balance: Australia Permanent and long-term arrivals and departures Cumulative market balance Cumulative market balance (ex-migration surge) (ex-migration surge) 8 7 Dwellings ('s) 1 1 Annualised - 's - -1 Excess 1 Total Permanent and Long Term Arrivals Total Permanent and Long Term Departures 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 1 1 1 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Net overseas migration Net interstate migration 1 NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS 1 Annual Rolling Sum - 's 8 Annual Rolling Sum - 's - - - - 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 Gross interstate migration Top fastest growing populations. Perth (WA) Wyndham (VIC) % of Australia's population per annum.1. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1. 1. % of Australia's population By number 1. 8 8 87 89 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 Sources: ABS, ANZ 1 8 9 's per annum Melton (VIC) Serpentine-Jarrahdale (WA) Cardinia (VIC) Wanneroo (WA) Whittlesea (VIC) Capel (WA) Kwinana (WA) Mandurah (WA) Armadale (WA) Leonora (WA) Chittering (WA) Murray (WA) Rockingham (WA) Busselton (WA) Ipswich (QLD) Port Hedland (WA) Dardanup (WA) Harvey (WA) 8 1 1 CAGR % (7-11)
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / of 1 SUPPLY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION DOWNTURN APPROACHING 199 S RECESSION LEVEL The outlook for residential building remains weak with the current dwelling construction downturn indicating completions are approximately 1% lower from the peak of the cycle (March 11). The severity of the slowdown has been sharper than previous building contractions and the loss in residential building activity in the current downturn is expected to be only slightly less than during the early 199 s recession. While soft house prices, weak house sales and tight credit conditions continue to dampen developer sentiment, financial market volatility and global economic uncertainty have also likely weighed on residential construction plans. Annualised trend completions (1, dwellings), while improving in recent months, remain well below long-run average levels and significantly below our estimate of underlying housing demand of 19, for 11-1. Despite the recent interest rate cuts, weak housing market sentiment will continue to weigh on housing construction until early 1, before building activity is expected to recover in the second half of 1. Looking through monthly volatility in building approvals, trend housing construction levels continue to be strongest in Victoria, though approvals are well below late-1 peak levels. NSW has shown the most resilience in the current construction downturn, with building approvals % higher than the lowest point in the GFC. Approvals of flat, unit and townhouse buildings continue to show that housing affordability and land availability constraints are driving an increasing share of total dwelling approvals, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Dwelling cycle comparison Building approvals 11 NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT 1 Sep 1989 - December 1991 March 7 - June Dwelling completions index (cycle peak=1) 9 8 March 11 - December 11 December 199 - December 199 Forecast (March 1 - March 1) Number ('s, trend) 7 1 1 7 8 9 Quarters from peak 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Building approvals & construction finance Residential vs non-residential building 1 Residential (trend) Residential (sa) Non-residential (trend) Non-residential (sa) 1 $bil, real annualised trend 1 Number ('s, trend) Value ($bil/month) 1 1 1 Housing construction finance (lhs) Total dwelling approvals (rhs) 1 8 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 Private sector building activity Private sector houses (Trend) Private sector houses (Seas Adj) 1, Private sector other residential* (Trend) Private sector other residential* (Seas Adj) 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Non-house* share of total dwelling approvals Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Australia 7 1, Number 8,,, % of total dwelling approvals (trend), 1 * Flats, units, apartments, semi-detached/row/terrace houses * Flats, units, apartments, semi-detached/row/terrace houses 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Sources: ABS, ANZ
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / of 1 PRICES HOUSE PRICES WEAKEN FURTHER ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY With the exception of Darwin and Canberra, house prices have weakened across all other capital cities in the year to June 1. However, through 1 monthly changes in house prices have been extremely volatile, particularly at the high-price end of the market. House price falls from peak to May 1 for the most expensive % of suburbs have been more than double price falls for remaining 8% of suburbs. This has most likely reflected the negative impact on house prices of increased volatility in equity markets and weak consumer sentiment. Despite weakening in recent months, Sydney dwelling (house and unit) prices have continued to outperform most other Australian capital cities since the peak of the current price cycle, due to the increasing pressure of stronger population growth on weak housing construction and a degree of resilience after an extended period of prior price underperformance in houses and especially units. In the absence of a sharp global economic downturn and escalating domestic unemployment, improving housing affordability, solid household financial positions and strong housing market fundamentals should support modest house price growth into 1. While previous structural and policy drivers have now been capitalised into house price growth, we expect prices to increase at a moderate -% in annual terms by the end of 1. House prices House prices, selected measures Australian capital cities average Rest of state ABS (-.1%)* Residex (-.%)* RP Data Rismark (-.%)* $ (sa) Median capital city house price ($'s) Dec Dec Dec Dec 7 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec 1 Dec 11 $ (sa) House prices, capital cities 7 Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra 7 1 1 Dec 9 Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 1 Dec Dec Dec 7 Dec 9 Dec 11 House prices, price range $ (sa) * Price declines reflect peak prices to prices as of March 1 1 Dec 9 Jun 98 Dec 99 Jun 1 Dec Jun Dec Jun 7 Dec 8 Jun 1 Dec 11 Non-house dwelling prices, capital cities 7 7 Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra 1 1 Dec 9 Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 1 Dec Dec Dec 7 Dec 9 Dec 11 Dwelling prices & housing market shortage 1 1 Cumulative state dwelling shortage mutiple of annual completions at June 11 Capital city % price decline from peak to June 1 Index (Dec 8=1) 11 11 1 1 - - - -8-1 Highest % (-7.8%)* Middle % (-.%)* Lowest % (-.%)* 9 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 * Peak to current prices Sources: ABS, RP Data-Rismark, Residex, ANZ -1-1 NSW/Sydney VIC/Melbourne QLD/Brisbane SA/Adelaide WA/Perth
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / 7 of 1 AFFORDABILITY LOWER HOUSE PRICES AND MORTGAGE RATES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Softening house prices, rising household incomes and lower mortgage rates have continued to improve Australian housing affordability. This has been reflected in improved consumer expectations of the best time to buy a house and lower mortgage delinquency rates through 1. Previous episodes of improving housing affordability (in the early and mid-9s) were largely driven by significant reductions in interest rates (and steady growth in household incomes). With interest rates at relatively low levels and expectations of moderate growth in household income, improvements in housing affordability through 1-1 are expected to be driven more by household income gains and weaker house prices than in the past. Despite Melbourne house prices experiencing the largest falls over the past year, Melbourne housing remains the least affordable to purchase across Australian capital cities. Strong growth in WA household income and weak house price growth has maintained Perth house deposit affordability compared to other major capital cities (ranked th across Australian capital cities compared to equal 1 st before the GFC). Mortgage repayments (% of mean household disposable income) Housing affordability 8 87 88 89 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 1 Housing affordability (lhs) Forecast Melbourne Institute-Westpac consumer sentiment index: house purchase indicator (trend, inverted rhs) House deposit* affordability, capital cities 7 9 11 1 1 17 Index Worse time to buy a home Better time to buy a home Imrpoves affordability Worsens affordability Contribution to housing affordability (ppts) Housing affordability, factor contribution Mortgage rates Household disposable income House prices -8 Forecasts - - - 198 1988 1991 199 1997 9 1 1 Mortgage delinquencies % of average annual state household disposable income 18 1 1 1 1 8 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart * Calculated for % of capital city house price 8 87 88 89 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 Household disposable income Mortgage delinquencies 9+ days (% of total mortgages, sa) NSW & ACT VIC QLD SA WA TAS Australia 1.9.8.7......1 Oct Oct Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 9 Oct 1 Oct 11 Housing loan interest rates NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS 18 Standard variable rate Discounted variable rate -year fixed rate 1 1 1 Annual % change (trend) 1 8 % per annum 1 1 1 8 1 7 8 9 1 11 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 Sources: ABS, RBA, Residex, Melbourne Institute-WBC, ANZ
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / 8 of 1 MARKET ACTIVITY HOME SALES ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK Housing market activity continues to be weighed down by weak household confidence, most likely driven by ongoing financial market volatility and an uncertain global economic outlook. Despite continued softening in house prices and improving housing affordability, residential home sales are running at 17-year lows and housing finance activity remains soft. Home sales levels are running at around 1,/month, well below the pre-gfc peak of 1,/month and tracking below the 1,/month sales levels seen in 9. While auction clearance rates and days on market have shown some improvement more recently, they also remain well below recent peak levels, suggesting continued divergence between the expectations of home buyers and vendors. With ongoing softness in house prices and escalating uncertainty around the prospects for the global economy, the outlook for housing market sales continues to look weak over the second half of the year. However, recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further rate cuts should drive improvements in housing affordability, eventually rousing market sales activity from the current lows, especially for first home buyers. Housing finance ANZ/PCA property industry confidence index 1 First home buyer Upgrader (excl. refin.) Investor (excl. refin.) 7 House price growth expectations* Dec qtr 11 Mar qtr 1 Jun qtr 1 1 $bil, annualised trend 8 Annual house price growth expectations (net balance) 1-1 - - 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 1 7 8 9 1 11 1 Monthly sales - NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT ACT AUS * Data for December quarter 11 and March quarter 1 shows expectations for "the next quarter". June quarter 1 shows expectations for "the next 1 months". Days on market 's (sa) 17 Monthly residential home sales (lhs) Westpac house purchase indicator (trend, rhs) 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 9 8 Mar 9 Mar 97 Mar 99 Mar 1 Mar Mar Mar 7 Mar 9 Mar 11 Auctions, major capital cities 7 9 11 1 1 17 Worse time to buy a home index Better time to buy a home Days on market (sa) 1 11 1 9 8 7 Inner Sydney Inner Melbourne Inner Brisbane Central Perth Jan Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 1 Auction clearance rates, major capital cities 9 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth 1% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth 8 9% number/week (trend) 7 1 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 Nov 11 May 1 Sources: ABS, RP Data, PCA/ANZ, Melbourne Institute-WBC, ANZ % of total auction results(trend) 8% 7% % % % % % 1% % May-8 Nov-8 May-9 Nov-9 May-1 Nov-1 May-11 Nov-11 May-1
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / 9 of 1 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES OUTPERFORMING CAPITAL CITIES Despite being lower in annual growth terms, regional house prices have been more stable than capital city house prices, which have seen larger price falls across all major states and territories. Across states/territories and regions, house price growth has continued to differ, reflecting varying economic performance across Australian industries. NSW regional house prices were the strongest across states and territories in the year to March 1, with the central inland regions of Orange and Dubbo showing the greatest house price growth. Queensland has shown the greatest intra-state variation in regional house prices, reflecting the divergent economic performance of regions exposed to the tourism sector (ie Cairns, Gold Coast) and mining-related services (Gladstone, Mount Isa). House price growth in WA regional centres has counter-intuitively been the weakest, with house prices in many centres lower in the year to March. Of note, house price growth in the Greenough River and Moore regions were much weaker in March 1 (-.% and -.7% respectively) compared to September 11 (+1.% and +.% respectively). Nonetheless, the economic benefits from major mining and energy projects in WA should boost house prices in many WA major regional centres over the next 1-18 months. House prices: capital cities & rest of state House prices: non-capital city regions Australian capital cities Australia rest of state $ NSW Victoria Queensland WA Australia 1 $ 1 $ Annual % change $ (original) $ $ - $ -1 Jan- Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 NSW regional house price growth Orange Dubbo Newcastle Southern Tablelands Wollongong Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Regional NSW Port Macquarie Lower South Coast Sydney Lower Murrumbidgee Northern Tablelands Richmond-Tweed Hastings - - - 8 Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) $1 Jan- Jan- Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Victoria regional house price growth Bendigo Latrobe Valley Warrnambool South Wimmera Mildura Ballarat East Gippsland Geelong West Ovens-Murray East Mallee Wodonga North Goulburn Regional Victoria Shepparton Melbourne - - - 8 Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) Gladstone North West Mackay Rockhampton Darling Downs Lower West Moreton Regional QLD Toowoomba Central West Townsville Cairns Brisbane Wide Bay-Burnett Bundaberg Gold Coast Queensland regional house price growth Johnston Kalgoorlie Regional WA Bunbury Gascoyne Fitzroy Perth Geraldton Moore King Avon Blackwood Greenough River Vasse Hotham WA regional house price growth -8 - - - 8 1 1 1 1 Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) Sources: Residex, RP Data-Rismark, ANZ -1-8 - - - Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1)
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / 1 of 1 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES (CONTINUED) Regional house price growth in South Australia, Tasmania and the territories have also reflected differing regional economic performance. While regional house price growth in most states have been dispersed between increases and decreases, Tasmania s regional house prices were all lower in the year to March 1, reflecting the relatively soft economy and weak labour market conditions. While we continue to expect continued divergence within South Australia and ACT regional housing markets, a broadly soft economic outlook for the South Australia and ACT economies combined with relatively balanced housing markets should contain house price growth in the coming year across most regions. The outlook for house price growth across the Northern Territory regions is buoyant, with significant mining and energy investment (ie Icthys gas project) expected to drive solid state economic growth and broad regional house price increases through the second half of 1 and through 1. 1%+ annual house price declines (March 1), regions Employment growth by state (year to May 1) Tas SA NT Vic ACT NSW Qld WA West Coast Barossa Lower North Lincoln Whyalla Riverland Lower South East Yorke Mt Lofty Ranges Murray Mallee Regional SA Upper South East Flinders Ranges McLaren Vale Adelaide Barkly SA regional house price growth - - - 8 1 Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) NT regional house price growth -1 1 7 Change in employment over latest 1 months (trend, s) Tasmania regional house price growth Central North North Eastern North Western Burnie-Devonport Launceston Southern Hobart Lyell -1-1 -8 - - - Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) North Canberra ACT regional house price growth Finniss Gungahlin-Hall Tuggeranong Darwin Woden Valley Lower Top End Canberra Central Belconnen Weston Creek-Stromlo Palmerston South Canberra -8 - - - 8 1 1 1 Sources: ABS, Residex, ANZ Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1) - - Capital growth (%, year to Mar 1)
Australian Housing Chartbook / 9 July 1 / 11 of 1 IMPORTANT NOTICE STATE/TERRITORY UNDERLYING HOUSING MARKET BALANCE NSW housing market balance 18 ' 1 1 1 1 8 - Surplus 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 Queensland housing market balance 9 ' 8 7 1-1 - Surplus 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 WA housing market balance 8 ' 7 1-1 - Surplus 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 NT housing market balance 8 ' Victoria housing market balance 7 ' 1-1 - Surplus 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 SA housing market balance ' 1 1 - Surplus -1 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 TAS housing market balance ' 1-1 Surplus - - 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 ACT housing market balance ' Surplus - 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 Sources: ABS, ANZ - Surplus 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1
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