Cent tury Urban Re eal Estat te Co onsu lting & Advi isory Se rvic es Prel iminar ry Fiel d Rese earch Ana lysis & Sce enario Presented to: City & County of San Francisco February 12, 2016 235 Montgomery Street, Suite 640 San Francisco, CA 941044 415.786.28755 www.centuryurban.com
PRELIMINARY FIELD RESEARCH & SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO: FROM: City & County of San Francisco Century Urban, LLC SUBJECT: Preliminary Field Research and Scenario Analysis DATE: February 12, 2016 This memorandum describes preliminary field research and scenario analysis performed with regard to ground-up construction of multifamilyy apartmentt and for-sale condominium projects, located within the City & County of San Francisco. With the assistance of the San Francisco Planning Department t, the San Francisco Mayor's Office of Housing & Community Development, and the San Francisco Office of Economic & Workforce Development, as well as attendees of the open meetings held as part of the Housing Working Group, Century Urban, LLC ( Century Urban ) has prepared three programma tic options or prototypes for multifamily apartments, in addition to three programmatic options or prototypes for for-sale condominiums, which reflect three separate and distinctt construction typologies as relativee data points for preliminary review and consideration. The prototypes are intended to reflect new construction of institutional quality residential product as the baseline for each construction typology. The preliminary underwriting assumptions were presented to the Housing Work Group on January 29, 2016 in order to gather consensus and address questions from the broader Housing Working Group in addition to a follow-up review and discussion with the Housing Working Group of preliminary analytical results on February 3, 2016. The summary below denotes preliminary field research conducted to date to determinee underwriting assumptions utilized to prepare the preliminary scenario analysis. The preliminary scenario analysis is enclosed ass Exhibits 1-4 of this memorandumm and provides a side-by-side summary of the current City & County off San Francisco inclusionary housing requirements both with regard to the onsite provision of inclusionary housing and the payment of offsite inclusionary housing in-lieu fees. Upon request of Housing Working Group meeting attendees, the current City & County off San Francisco inclusionary housing requirements are reviewed relative to a proposed charter amendment to amend the City & County of San Francisco inclusionary housing requirements. PAGE 2
Information Sources for Preliminary Pro-Forma Assumptions Preliminary pro-forma financial analysis focuses on three prototypical forms of residential construction, highrise (Type I), midrise (Type III) and lowrise (Type V) with programmatic adjustments between multifamilyy apartmentss and for-sale condominiums (i.e., unit sizes and parking ratios). The programmatic scenarios were reviewed and discussed with City agencies and at the Housing Working Group meetings to solicit feedback on the prototypes. Residential unit mix and sizes for multifamily apartments and for-sale condominiums were determined based upon recently completed residential projects located within the City & County of San Francisco. The unit mix and sizes are commensurate with recently completed projects and consistent with feedbackk gathered from interviews with project sponsors and provided at the Housing Working Group meeting on January 29, 2016. Residential underwriting assumes a residential efficiency factor of 80% (i.e., excluding retail and parking components). The retail component assumes a 90% efficiency factor. Parking ratios of 0.25:1 for multifamily apartments and 0.50: :1 for for-sale condominiums are assumed for each prototype with parking provided at- or below-grade depending on the specific prototype. For-sale condominium comparable sales pricee data wass obtained from The Mark Company and Polaris Pacific. Additional research regarding comparable sales dataa was conducted through the San Francisco Associationn of Realtors. A review of empirical data was utilized to determine estimated for-sale condominiumm sale prices for purposes of the scenario analysis and adjusted based upon construction typology. Multifamily apartment rent comparables were provided by market rate project sponsors presently leasing market rate apartments, in addition to rentt comparables obtained from third party multifamily apartment market research firms. This information was utilized to estimate residential apartment rents for purposes of the scenario analysiss and adjusted based upon construction typology. Residential scenario analysis reflects currently approved City & County of San Francisco development impact fees. To the extent an impact fee has not been formally approved by the City & County of San Francisco, the fee is not included in the preliminary scenario analysis. The underwriting includes thee following development impact fees: the Transportatio on Sustainability Fee, School Impact Fee, Jobs-Housing Linkage Fee, Wastewater Capacity Charge, and Water Capacity Charge. Impact fees that are unique to certain approved area plans are excluded from the preliminary scenario analysis. Soft costs (e.g., architecture and engineering, financing, etc.) weree reviewed and discussed with project sponsors and as part of the Housing Working Group meetings. General contracting firms listed below were contacted and provided with the programmatic information for the multifamilyy apartment t and for-sale condominium prototypes in order to provide an informedd construction cost estimate for each prototype. The general contracting firms interviewed include Swinertonn Builders, Nibbi PAGE 3
Brothers, Pankow Builders, Hathaway Dinwiddie Construction Company, Build Group, and Lend Lease Construction Company. The estimated hard cost assumptions include the following: Annual hard cost escalation of 3.0% per annum through construction commencement. Select general contracting firms provided escalation guidance in excesss of this amount. Hard cost contingency of 7.5% %, which pursuant to project sponsor interviews and feedback reflects an average level of contingency prior to completion of project design, coordination of drawings, and execution of a constructionn contract. Target return rates assumed in the preliminaryy scenario analysis are based on input from project sponsors and Century Urban s ongoing monitoring of return rates required by project sponsors. Target return rates were also reviewed, discussed, and/or confirmed during the Housing Working Group meetings. This memorandum has been prepared for the City & County of San Francisco. The preliminary financial information, results, and findings are preliminary in nature, and are subject to change and revision. PAGE 4
Century Urban Exhibit 1 -Multifamily Apartments - Underwriting Summary CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO - INCLUSIONARY HOUSING REVIEW - MULTIFAMILY APARTMENTS - FEBRUARY 2016 Inclusionary Scenario Case A 12% Onsite Inclusionary Housing Case B 25% Onsite Inclusionary Housing Affordability Assumption 12% at 55% AMI 15% at 55% AMI 10% at 100% AMI A.) TYPE I - SUMMARY 1.) Building Stories 13 Stories 13 Stories 2.) Building Height 135 Feet 135 Feet 3.) Gross Square Feet 268,000 268,000 4.) Apartment Unit Count 250 Units 250 Units 5.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 6.) Market Rate Units 220 Units 187 Units 7.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $4,291 / $5.71 $4,288 / $5.72 8.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $179.4M / $717,000 $162.9M / $652,000 9.) Total Cost (GSF) $669 $608 10.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 30 Units / $1,080 38 Units / $1,082 11.) 100% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent NA / NA 25 Units / $2,018 12.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $9,856,000 $8,969,000 13.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $129,000 $71,000 14.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($58,000) / (45.0%) B.) TYPE III - SUMMARY 15.) Building Stories 7 Stories 7 Stories 16.) Building Height 75 Feet 75 Feet 17.) Gross Square Feet 133,813 133,813 18.) Apartment Unit Count 125 Units 125 Units 19.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 20.) Market Rate Units 110 Units 93 Units 21.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $4,085 / $5.44 $4,084 / $5.44 22.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $83.1M / $665,000 $75.4M / $603,000 23.) Total Cost (GSF) $621 $564 24.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 15 Units / $1,080 20 Units / $1,085 25.) 100% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent NA / NA 12 Units / $2,009 26.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $4,567,000 $4,154,000 27.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $138,000 $82,500 28.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($55,500) / (40.2%) C.) TYPE V - SUMMARY 29.) Building Stories 5 Stories 5 Stories 30.) Building Height 55 Feet 55 Feet 31.) Gross Square Feet 54,250 54,250 32.) Apartment Unit Count 50 Units 50 Units 33.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 34.) Market Rate Units 44 Units 37 Units 35.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $3,853 / $5.12 $3,823 / $5.16 36.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $31.2M / $624,000 $28.3M / $566,000 37.) Total Cost (GSF) $575 $522 38.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 6 Units / $1,071 8 Units / $1,088 39.) 100% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent NA / NA 5 Units / $2,038 40.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $1,719,000 $1,557,000 41.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $138,500 $86,500 42.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($52,000) / (37.5%) Notes: * All financial and programmatic estimates are preliminary in nature, and are not intended as a formal feasibility analysis. ** For comparison, the average land prices determined by the City of San Francisco s 2006 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $120,000 per unit; average land prices determined by the 2012 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $200,000 per unit. *** The financial analyses shown above reflect institutional investment underwriting assumptions. Financial underwriting assumptions for smaller projects (e.g., less than 35 units) may differ.
Century Urban Exhibit 2 - Multifamily Apartments - Underwriting Summary CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO - INCLUSIONARY HOUSING REVIEW - MULTIFAMILY APARTMENTS - FEBRUARY 2016 Inclusionary Scenario Affordability Assumption Case C Fund Inclusionary Housing Fee 20% of Total Unit Count Case D Fund Inclusionary Housing Fee 33% of Total Unit Count A.) TYPE I - SUMMARY 1.) Building Stories 13 Stories 13 Stories 2.) Building Height 135 Feet 135 Feet 3.) Gross Square Feet 268,000 268,000 4.) Apartment Unit Count 250 Units 250 Units 5.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 6.) Market Rate Units 250 Units 250 Units 7.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $4,288 / $5.72 $4,288 / $5.72 8.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $197.6M / $790,000 $197.6M / $790,000 9.) Total Cost (GSF) $737 $737 10.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 20% Fee Out 33% Fee Out 11.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $10,868,000 $10,868,000 12.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $130,000 $88,000 13.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($42,000) / (32.3%) B.) TYPE III - SUMMARY 14.) Building Stories 7 Stories 7 Stories 15.) Building Height 75 Feet 75 Feet 16.) Gross Square Feet 133,813 133,813 17.) Apartment Unit Count 125 Units 125 Units 18.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 19.) Market Rate Units 125 Units 125 Units 20.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $4,080 / $5.44 $4,080 / $5.44 21.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $91.2M / $729,000 $91.2M / $729,000 22.) Total Cost (GSF) $681 $681 23.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 20% Fee Out 33% Fee Out 24.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $5,016,000 $5,016,000 25.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $132,500 $89,000 26.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($43,500) / (32.8%) C.) TYPE V - SUMMARY 27.) Building Stories 5 Stories 5 Stories 28.) Building Height 55 Feet 55 Feet 29.) Gross Square Feet 54,250 54,250 30.) Apartment Unit Count 50 Units 50 Units 31.) Average Unit Size 750 NRSF 750 NRSF 32.) Market Rate Units 50 Units 50 Units 33.) Wtd. Average Market Rent $3,845 / $5.13 $3,845 / $5.13 34.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $34.2M / $683,000 $34.2M / $683,000 35.) Total Cost (GSF) $630 $630 36.) 55% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Rent 20% Fee Out 33% Fee Out 37.) Stabilized Net Operating Income $1,881,000 $1,881,000 38.) Residential Land Value per Unit (5.5% Target ROC) $131,000 $84,000 39.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($47,000) / (35.9%) Notes: * All financial and programmatic estimates are preliminary in nature, and are not intended as a formal feasibility analysis. ** For comparison, the average land prices determined by the City of San Francisco s 2006 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $120,000 per unit; average land prices determined by the 2012 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $200,000 per unit. *** The financial analyses shown above reflect institutional investment underwriting assumptions. Financial underwriting assumptions for smaller projects (e.g., less than 35 units) may differ.
Century Urban Exhibit 3 - For-Sale Condominiums - Underwriting Summary CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO - INCLUSIONARY HOUSING REVIEW - FOR-SALE CONDOMINIUMS - FEBRUARY 2016 Inclusionary Scenario Affordability Assumption Case A 12% Onsite Inclusionary Housing 12% at 90% AMI Case B 25% Onsite Inclusionary Housing 15% at 80% AMI 10% at 120% AMI A.) TYPE I - SUMMARY 1.) Building Stories 13 Stories 13 Stories 2.) Building Height 135 Feet 135 Feet 3.) Gross Square Feet 286,000 286,000 4.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 221 Units 221 Units 5.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 6.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 194 Units 166 Units 7.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $1,040,513 / $1,224 $1,036,747 / $1,223 8.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $188.3M / $852,000 $169.9M / $769,000 9.) Total Cost per GSF $659 $595 10.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price 27 Units / $280,011 33 Units / $242,480 11.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA 22 Units / $402,373 12.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $128,000 $56,000 13.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($72,000) / (56.3%) B.) TYPE III - SUMMARY 14.) Building Stories 7 Stories 7 Stories 15.) Building Height 75 Feet 75 Feet 16.) Gross Square Feet 142,813 142,813 17.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 110 Units 110 Units 18.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 19.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 97 Units 82 Units 20.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $974,742 / $1,152 $972,561 / $1,153 21.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $86.1M / $782,000 $77.6M / $706,000 22.) Total Cost per GSF $603 $544 23.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price 13 Units / $286,122 17 Units / $241,138 24.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA 11 Units / $409,301 25.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $135,000 $67,000 26.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($68,000) / (50.4%) C.) TYPE V - SUMMARY 27.) Building Stories 5 Stories 5 Stories 28.) Building Height 55 Feet 55 Feet 29.) Gross Square Feet 57,625 57,625 30.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 44 Units 44 Units 31.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 32.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 39 Units 33 Units 33.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $946,410 / $1,099 $948,485 / $1,098 34.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $33.2M / $754,000 $30.2M / $685,000 35.) Total Cost per GSF $576 $523 36.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price 5 Units / $273,830 7 Units / $237,172 37.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA 4 Units / $406,970 38.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $155,000 $92,000 39.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($63,000) / (40.6%) Notes: * All financial and programmatic estimates are preliminary in nature, and are not intended as a formal feasibility analysis. ** For comparison, the average land prices determined by the City of San Francisco s 2006 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $120,000 per unit; average land prices determined by the 2012 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $200,000 per unit. *** The financial analyses shown above reflect institutional investment underwriting assumptions. Financial underwriting assumptions for smaller projects (e.g., less than 35 units) may differ.
Century Urban Exhibit 4 - For-Sale Condominiums - Underwriting Summary CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO - INCLUSIONARY HOUSING REVIEW - FOR-SALE CONDOMINIUMS - FEBRUARY 2016 Inclusionary Scenario Affordability Assumption Case C Fund Inclusionary Housing Fee 20% of Total Unit Count Case D Fund Inclusionary Housing Fee 33% of Total Unit Count A.) TYPE I - SUMMARY 1.) Building Stories 13 Stories 13 Stories 2.) Building Height 135 Feet 135 Feet 3.) Gross Square Feet 286,000 286,000 4.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 221 Units 221 Units 5.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 6.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 221 Units 221 Units 7.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $1,038,122 / $1,224 $1,038,122 / $1,224 8.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $206.0M / $932,000 $206.0M / $932,000 9.) Total Cost per GSF $721 $721 10.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 11.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 12.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $125,000 $80,000 13.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($45,000) / (36.0%) B.) TYPE III - SUMMARY 14.) Building Stories 7 Stories 7 Stories 15.) Building Height 75 Feet 75 Feet 16.) Gross Square Feet 142,813 142,813 17.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 110 Units 110 Units 18.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 19.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 110 Units 110 Units 20.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $982,182 / $1,152 $982,182 / $1,152 21.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $94.3M / $858,000 $94.3M / $858,000 22.) Total Cost per GSF $660 $660 23.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 24.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 25.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $133,000 $89,000 26.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($44,000) / (33.1%) C.) TYPE V - SUMMARY 27.) Building Stories 5 Stories 5 Stories 28.) Building Height 55 Feet 55 Feet 29.) Gross Square Feet 57,625 57,625 30.) Residential Condominium Unit Count 44 Units 44 Units 31.) Average Unit Size 850 NSF 850 NSF 32.) Market Rate Residential Condominium Units 44 Units 44 Units 33.) Wtd. Average Market Rate Sales Price / PSF $935,682 / $1,098 $935,682 / $1,098 34.) Total Cost (Total / Unit) $35.6M / $809,000 $35.6M / $809,000 35.) Total Cost per GSF $617 $617 36.) 80% or 90% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 37.) 120% AMI Unit Count / Wtd. Avg. Sales Price NA / NA NA / NA 38.) Residential Land Value per Unit (20% Profit Margin) $135,000 $85,000 39.) $ Land Value Reduction per Unit / % Reduction NA / NA ($50,000) / (37.0%) Notes: * All financial and programmatic estimates are preliminary in nature, and are not intended as a formal feasibility analysis. ** For comparison, the average land prices determined by the City of San Francisco s 2006 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $120,000 per unit; average land prices determined by the 2012 Inclusionary Housing Financial Analysis ranged from $100,000 to $200,000 per unit. *** The financial analyses shown above reflect institutional investment underwriting assumptions. Financial underwriting assumptions for smaller projects (e.g., less than 35 units) may differ.