Housing Market Monitor

Housing Market Monitor June 2015

Introduction 1.1 Adequate housing to meet the demands of a growing workforce and population is fundamental to ensuring any economy functions effectively. Meeting this demand now, when the market is less able and willing to respond, is a significant challenge but is one that needs to be understood and monitored. It is the aim of this report to enable some of this monitoring process. 1.2 In particular this housing market report for Greater Manchester (GM) is intended to provide a picture of the key trends and patterns in the sales and lettings markets. The report relies heavily on published data from the Land Registry and takes advantage of links via Manchester City Council to data from estates agents using a tool provided by Zoopla to give estimates of prices and available properties in the private rented sector. 1.3 Where possible local level data will be used to give an idea of the local market as well as setting this within the wider geographical context of GM, the North West and nationally. 1.4 The report looks in particular at residential sales and then at residential lettings including a look at the apartment markets in Manchester city centre and Salford Quays. The final reference table also gives an update of the main Homes and Community Agency schemes by their level of housing completions, which includes affordable housing. New Economy 01

2 Housing Profile 2.1 This chapter looks in more detail at key issues in the housing market as context or particular issues that have been relevant over the last year. In previous editions we have looked at the levels of new build completions and also profiled the population using the Census 2011. This is dependent on the availability of data at the time of publication. In this update of the monitor we look at levels of affordability in more details than in previous editions as well as recently released data on empty homes. Affordability 2.2 The latest housing market commentary from the Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) suggests that there are early signs that housing market conditions are steadying after the slowdown in the second half of 2014. Given UK political uncertainties the market could be cautious in the second half of 2015. Recent Budget measures could have added a little to the feel good factor in the near term, but the Office for Budget Responsibility projections make it clear that a further period of fiscal retrenchment lies ahead. Indicators of housing activity and mortgage lending continue to describe subdued market conditions. But improving prospects for earnings and last autumn s stamp duty reforms seem likely to support a modest pick-up in activity over the next few months. New CML data on the characteristics of lending in February 2015 show that homeowner house purchase lending declined in February both compared to the previous month and February 2014. The number of loans advanced totaled 40,600, down 1% on January and 16% compared to the same month in 2014. These loans totaled 6.8bn, which was down 3% on January and 13% on February last year. There were 18,700 loans advanced to first-time buyers - down 1% on January and 16% compared to February 2014. These loans by value were 2.7 billion, which was down 4% on January and 13% down on February last year. First-time buyer affordability changed fractionally in February, with first-time buyers typically borrowing 3.37 times their gross income, compared to 3.38 in January. The typical loan size for first-time buyers decreased month-on-month to 124,000 in February, down from 124,700 in January. The typical gross income of a first-time buyer household changed slightly to 38,500 in February from 38,456 in January. 2.3 First-time buyers in February paid 19.0% of gross income towards covering capital and interest payments, little changed from 19.2% in January but still significantly less than the recent peak of 24.8% in December 2007. 2.4 During the height of the loan and mortgage lending boom, before the credit crunch, mortgages were much more freely available and income to loan ratios increased to 6 or sometimes even 7 times that of income. However, now things have settled down we can assume that the mortgage to income ratio will be no higher than 4 times that of income in the foreseeable future. A mortgage lender will typically lend 75% of the value of the property (known as New Economy 02

the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio). The remaining 25% would therefore have to be funded through a deposit. So whilst interest rates are still at very low levels the criteria for a mortgage is much stricter. A scenario of the range of mortgage products available is highlighted below (Figure 1) and modelled based on the average GM house price of 159,652, a 3.5 loan to value ratio and a 4% interest rate over a 25 year period. The first 4 columns show a standard mortgage product with different loan to value ratios (75% to 90%) and highlights how high a deposit needs to be for a mortgage to be approved. Even with a loan to value mortgage of 85% the deposit required would be almost 24,000. With a Help to Buy mortgage the deposit is much more affordable (at around 8,000) but the amount of mortgage and household income required is higher i.e. a mortgage loan of 151,669 and a household income requirement of 48,763. Within the Help to Buy Equity scheme product the shared ownership part is just under 32,000 and the household income level and the mortgage loan required is therefore less. Figure 1 Affordability Modelling in Greater Manchester Source: Land Registry and New Economy 2.5 The evidence above highlights how difficult it is and will be in the foreseeable future to gain access to owner occupation. The implementation of the Mortgage Market Review recommendations from April last year means lenders are fully responsible for assessing whether the customer can afford the loan, and will have to verify the customers income. Together with wider changes to the regulatory framework, this is driving a switch away from simple formulas for lending based on multiples of income, towards more sophisticated affordability calculators. Clients are asked to provide considerably more information to inform the assessment with more scrutiny placed on the New Economy 03

applicant s current spending patterns. The implications of this are not clear but could still result in lending of typically 3-4 times income, perhaps 5 times dependent on individual circumstances. 2.6 In 2013, the government introduced the Help to Buy scheme which enabled first time buyers to buy an equity share of 75% in a new build property. The second stage of Help to Buy was introduced in January 2014 and provides first time buyers an opportunity to access a 75% LTV mortgage with a 5% deposit. The budget last month continued the Help to Buy programme with details of an additional option of a Help to Buy ISA. The scheme proposes to supplement people s savings with an additional 25% bonus of up to 3,000, for those who can save up to 12,000. The maximum that an individual can save per month is 200 meaning that it will take over 4 years to reach the 3,000 bonus and this suggests that the impact will be neither significant nor immediate. It should however, enable more first time buyers in GM to get on the housing ladder. 2.7 The statistical release below (Figure 2) presents Official Statistics on the number of home purchases and the value of equity loans under the government Help to Buy loan scheme. It does not cover statistics regarding the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme. The figures refer from the launch of the scheme on 1 April 2013 until the second quarter of 2014. The figures show that in GM there have been a total of 1,175 Help to Buy loans approved in GM with a total equity loan value of almost 38 million (a value per transaction of 32,494). Nationally, there have been over 27,000 Help to Buy loans approved with a total value of over 1.1 billion (a value per transaction of 41,413) Figure 2 Number and value of Help to Buy: Equity Loans Total Number of Equity Loans Q2 2013 to Q2 2014 Total Value of Equity Loans (Q2 2013 to Q2 2014) Value per transaction Bolton 90 2,923,009 32,478 Bury 68 1,987,214 29,224 Manchester 316 8,882,700 28,110 Oldham 100 2,667,450 26,675 Rochdale 143 4,616,586 32,284 Salford 151 5,176,674 34,283 Stockport 21 1,211,536 57,692 Tameside 84 2,654,276 31,599 Trafford 44 2,475,447 56,260 Wigan 158 5,585,058 35,348 GM 1,175 38,179,950 32,494 England 27,167 1,125,055,776 41,413 Source: DCLG https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/help-to-buy-equity-loan-scheme-and-help-to-buy-newbuy-statistics-april-2013-to-june-2014 New Economy 04

2.8 The table (Figure 3) below shows the house price to income levels across Greater Manchester using the latest income data (Paycheck) from CACI for and house price data from the Land Registry for 2014. The average house price in Greater Manchester (aggregated from postcode price paid data) is 159,652 and the average income just over 25.5k. Therefore the ratio of income to house price is just over 6.2 times i.e. on average a prospective purchaser would need 6.2 times the income to purchase a property.. The most affordable properties on average are in Wigan (5 times) and the least affordable are in Trafford where residents on average need 7.9 times the average household income of 31,992 in the borough to afford an average home. Figure 3 Household affordability in Greater Manchester Median Household Income ( ) Property Price 2014 Affordability Ratio (income to property price) Bolton 24,684 133,588 5.4 Bury 28,458 152,608 5.4 Manchester 22,962 154,799 6.7 Oldham 23,870 132,635 5.6 Rochdale 23,803 132,004 5.5 Salford 24,605 136,875 5.6 Stockport 29,936 203,979 6.8 Tameside 24,762 126,634 5.1 Trafford 31,993 252,702 7.9 Wigan 25,233 126,730 5.0 Greater 25,573 159,652 6.2 Manchester Source: CACI Paycheck data (2015) and HM Land Registry New Economy 05

Figure 4 2.9 The map above (Figure 4) illustrates a clear north/south divide within the conurbation with regards to housing affordability. The data uses Land Registry house price data and CACI Paycheck data at ward level to calculate an affordability ratio for each ward The darker areas predominantly in the south show that residents in these areas would need over 6.5 of their income to afford an average house in these areas. The lightest area predominantly in the central areas of the north have ratios of less than 4.5 times income to house price so it is these areas that a most accessible with a mortgage. 2.10 The tables below (Figures 5 and 6) show the wards that are the least and most affordable. Of the wards that have a ratio of over 8 times income to house price the majority are within Trafford and Bowdon s house prices are 12 times that of income. Relatively to its income levels Broughton in Salford is also particularly unaffordable relatively to its average house prices. Only 5 wards within GM have an affordability ratio of under 4 headed by Farnworth, Leigh West and Abram with house prices 3.7 times that of household income. Figure 5 Least Affordable Wards in GM 2014 Ward Local Authority Median Income Price Paid 2014 Ratio Bowdon Trafford 46,410 583,807 12.6 Hale Barns Trafford 45,919 497,840 10.8 Hale Central Trafford 50,333 429,970 8.5 Clifford Trafford 20,916 174,343 8.3 Broughton Salford 18,716 152,704 8.2 Village Trafford 31,153 250,110 8.0 New Economy 06

Figure 6 Most Affordable Wards in GM 2014 Ward Local Authority Median Income Price Paid 2014 Ratio Farnworth Bolton 20,077 73,913 3.7 Leigh West Wigan 20,843 77,268 3.7 Abram Wigan 23,257 87,152 3.7 Gorton North Manchester 19,446 75,786 3.9 Central Rochdale Rochdale 17,947 70,665 3.9 Source: Land Registry Price Paid data and CACI Paycheck New Economy 07

Empty Homes 2.11 Much of the focus on increasing housing supply has been on the provision of new homes, but this has to be complemented by targeted intervention to bring existing but empty properties back into effective use. 2.12 Empty properties are a characteristic feature in many areas of the country and 2.7% of dwellings in England were classed as empty. GM had 3.0% of its stock empty in 2014 and this was highest in Bolton (3.8%) and Oldham (3.7%). All areas in GM apart from Tameside have seen a decrease in the number of empty properties since 2013 and the decrease in Trafford has been highest at -15.9%. Across GM the decrease in overall number of empty properties has been -6.8%, higher than the national average of -3.9% 2.13 Long-term problematic empty homes are a major cause for concern for communities. They represent waste, financial expense and missed opportunities, these elements combined can lead to the rapid deterioration of a street and neighbourhood. In a large number of neighbourhoods within Greater Manchester the condition of the properties is very poor, coupled with the length of time they have been empty will require significant investment to bring them back into use. As Figure 7 below highlights 35.4% of all the empty properties recorded in GM have been empty for over 6 months, higher than the national average at 33.7%. In Manchester 41.5% of properties have been empty for over 6 months. The number of long term empty properties, however, has also decreased since 2013 by 11.7%, higher than the national average of -4.7%. Figure 7 Number of Empty Homes 2014 *Empty for over 6 months Number of Empty Homes 2014 Long Term Empty Homes* % of all dwellings that are long term empty Source: DCLG https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/.../lt_615.xls % of all empty homes that are long term empty % Change in Empty Homes % Change in Long Term Empties Total Dwellings % Empty Homes Bolton 120,338 4,618 3.8 1,585 1.3 34.3-4.2-1.5 Bury 80,923 2,639 3.3 877 1.1 33.2-7.5-11.5 Manchester 209,138 4,813 2.3 1,996 1.0 41.5-10.9-25.0 Oldham 92,439 3,461 3.7 1,254 1.4 36.2-9.8-0.6 Rochdale 90,082 3,096 3.4 1,046 1.2 33.8-0.6-6.9 Salford 107,391 3,276 3.1 913 0.9 27.9-1.4-19.4 Stockport 124,677 3,283 2.6 1,159 0.9 35.3-8.1-4.8 Tameside 98,683 2,957 3.0 1,152 1.2 39.0 0.7-1.0 Trafford 95,762 2,061 2.2 617 0.6 29.9-15.9-29.6 Wigan 139,221 4,520 3.2 1,681 1.2 37.2-9.1-10.2 Greater Manchester 1,158,654 34,724 3.0 12,280 1.1 35.4-6.8-11.7 England 22,793,248 610,123 2.7 205,821 0.9 33.7-3.9-4.7 New Economy 08

Residential Sales Comparable Change 2.14 It is useful to take a step back and reflect on the housing market over time in order to put the current housing market situation in context. Figure 8 illustrates the change in prices from an index of January 2007 in GM compared to other selected areas including the region and country as a whole. It is also useful, to highlight just what a unique housing market London has relatively to the rest of the country. Whilst the comparable areas show house price rise until early 2008, apart from Greater London, they do show a broadly similar pattern. From May 2009, however GM and the North West remains fairly stagnant with still a long term declining or at best stagnant trajectory compared to prices that were being experienced in the index month of January 2007. England and Wales as a whole has shown some recovery to prices in 2007 and has remained stable since 2011. Of the selected areas only GM and the NW remain below the property prices they had in January 2007. The graph illustrates most, however, the stark and increasing gap between Greater London and the rest of the country. Figure 8 Residential Price Index January 2007 to January 2015 Source: Land Registry Price Paid data 2.15 The downturn of the housing market was, and is, primarily characterised by a dramatic reduction in the number of recorded sales and its subsequent stagnation. The difference between the price graph above and the sales graph below (Figure 9) is that all the geographical areas shown illustrate a similar pattern of peaks and troughs including that nationally and even in Greater New Economy 09

London (primarily reflecting the seasonal flux in sales). Two significant reductions in sales, however, occurred towards the end of 2007 and in January 2010 and sales reached a low in the first few months of 2009. There was a recovery from this point up to January 2010 when buyers rushed to beat the reintroduction of the old stamp duty threshold, reflecting the effects that national policy can have on house sales. This caused a rush of sales before this legislation was introduced and a large slump immediately after the end of the stamp duty holiday. Since then there has been some recovery in sales, particularly in the South East, but all areas are still below the sales figures achieved in January 2007. It is safe to say that it is unlikely that sales levels will ever get back to the levels experienced between in the summer of 2007. Despite dramatic increases in house prices in Greater London as highlighted above sales have tailed off over the last 12 months. Figure 9 Index of Sales for Selected Areas January 2007 to November 2014 Source: HM Land Registry New Economy 010

Sales - All 2.16 Postcode house price data from the Land Registry allows for the aggregation of transactions (sales) data up to ward and district level as below (Figure 10). At the time of publication the most reliable data is that up to the end of 2014 and the data below compares data for the whole of 2013 with the whole of 2014. 2.17 At the Greater Manchester level the average price paid for a residential property during 2014 (Figure X) was 159,652 a 4.5% increase compared to 2013. Trafford and Stockport contained the highest prices paid for properties as a whole with the average property price in Trafford being over 252,702 and in Stockport just under 203,979. The lowest prices paid were in Tameside ( 126 634) and Wigan ( 126,730). Bury experienced the most increase in prices in this period at 9.3% and Salford the most increase in sales at 40.8%. These levels of sales do still need to be put into perspective and are still relatively small compared to the housing market peak in 2007 when number of quarterly sales in GM were just under 15,000. I think it is safe to assume, however, that we are unlikely to experience sales on the level of this for some time, if at all. Figure 10 Property Prices and Sales in Greater Manchester 2014 Number of Sales 2014 Prices ( ) 2014 Annual % Change in sales Annual % Change in prices Bolton 3,397 133,588 26.9 4.3 Bury 2,771 152,608 36.2 9.3 Manchester 6,142 154,799 28.8 3.7 Oldham 2,453 132,635 32.2 5.6 Rochdale 2,355 132,004 25.8 4.5 Salford 3,639 136,875 40.8 4.4 Stockport 4,911 203,979 35.2 6.1 Tameside 2,633 126,634 31.2 2.7 Trafford 3,758 252,702 24.3 3.9 Wigan 3,897 126,730 23.7 2.6 GM 35,956 159,652 30.3 4.5 Source: HM Land Registry Aggregated Price Paid Postcode data 2.18 The map below (Figure 11) illustrates the average prices paid across GM at ward level for in 2014. This spatial pattern has been in existence for some time in GM with higher prices in the south and periphery of the conurbation and the central areas of the districts experiencing the lowest house prices. This is, at least in part a reflection of the characteristics of the stock in these areas as well as the levels of demand to live in these areas. New Economy 011

Figure 11 2.19 In terms of ward level sales during 2014 there is again a distinct skew in favour of the south of the conurbation, particular in Stockport and also a belt of sales activity running from the regional centre out into Salford and also to the peripheral areas of Bury, Bolton and Oldham (Figure 12). There has been poor sales performance particularly in the central areas of Oldham and Rochdale but it is worth noting again that sales levels are still relatively low throughout the conurbation and the map should be seen as signs of where there is some relative level of activity. Figure 12 New Economy 012

2.20 With regards to annual change in residential sales and prices at ward level the picture is much more mixed as highlighted in the maps below. For prices, Stockport is the only district where there has been no ward that has shown some decrease in price. Other than that it is difficult to identify any real pattern in terms of significant price growth (over 10%) at ward level with wards of decrease being situated next to wards of the highest growth. Figure 13 2.21 As highlighted below (Figure 14) there are only a few wards where there has been a decrease in the number of sales in 2014 compared to 2013. Rochdale has the most number of wards that have shown an decrease but interestingly the south of Trafford, which has some of the highest prices has shown a decrease in the number of sales. Bury and the central part of Salford show the highest levels of change in sales at over 50% Figure 14 New Economy 013

2.22 The tables below in Figure 15 show the highest and lowest wards 10 ward in GM in terms of price, sales and change in 2014. Figure 15 Highest Residential Prices Paid in GM by Ward in 2014 Ward Name District Price ( ) Bowdon Trafford 583,807 Hale Barns Trafford 497,840 Hale Central Trafford 429,970 Bramhall South Stockport 339,495 Bramhall North Stockport 334,723 Heaton and Lostock Bolton 277,360 Marple North Stockport 275,310 Didsbury West Manchester 271,497 Cheadle Hulme South Stockport 271,250 Didsbury East Manchester 267,170 Lowest Residential Prices Paid in GM by Ward in GM Ward Name District Price ( ) Central Rochdale Rochdale 70,665 Harpurhey Manchester 71,999 Rumworth Bolton 72,867 Farnworth Bolton 73,913 St Mary's Oldham 74,991 Gorton North Manchester 75,786 Halliwell Bolton 76,158 Alexandra Oldham 76,286 Leigh West Wigan 77,268 Milkstone and Deeplish Rochdale 77,336 Highest Sales by Ward in GM 2014 Ward Name District Number of Sales 2014 Ordsall Salford 494 City Centre Manchester 469 Ancoats and Clayton Manchester 393 Didsbury West Manchester 306 Davenport and Cale Green Stockport 291 Hazel Grove Stockport 290 Heatons South Stockport 285 Cheadle and Gatley Stockport 281 Altrincham Trafford 281 Bradford Manchester 272 New Economy 014

Lowest Sales by Ward in GM 2014 Ward Name District Number of Sales 2014 Milkstone and Deeplish Rochdale 55 Central Rochdale Rochdale 62 Coldhurst Oldham 43 Werneth Oldham 84 Smallbridge and Firgrove Rochdale 51 Balderstone and Kirkholt Rochdale 70 West Middleton Rochdale 59 Rumworth Bolton 83 Ardwick Manchester 78 Longsight Manchester 76 Highest Percentage Price Change 2013 to 2014 by Ward in GM Ward Name District Percentage Price Change (%) Halliwell Bolton 24.9 Winton Salford 20.9 Baguley Manchester 19.8 Great Lever Bolton 19.6 Aspull New Springs Whelley Wigan 19.3 Cheadle Hulme South Stockport 18.3 Ashton Waterloo Tameside 18.0 Chadderton Central Oldham 17.8 Stretford Trafford 17.5 Longdendale Tameside 17.3 Lowest Percentage Price Change 2013 to 2014 by Ward in GM Ward Name District Percentage Price Change (%) Central Rochdale Rochdale -19.6 Harpurhey Manchester -15.7 Cadishead Salford -12.3 Miles Platting and Newton Heath Manchester -12.1 Kersal Salford -11.5 Medlock Vale Oldham -11.1 Crompton Oldham -11.0 Spotland and Falinge Rochdale -10.7 Farnworth Bolton -10.6 St Peter's Tameside -10.5 Source: Land Registry New Economy 015

Residential Sales by House Type 2.23 The tables overleaf show levels of house prices (Figure 16) and sales (Figure 17) across Greater Manchester at district level by house type. At the GM level all property types increased their prices but in particular detached and semidetached properties increased by 5.2% and 5.3% respectively. At district level only terraces in Bolton and flats in Stockport and Bury showed any sign of decrease (with decreases of around 1% or less). Terraced properties increased prices by 9.8% in Bury, detached properties by 8.5% in Oldham and semi-detached properties by 8.2% in Stockport. The prices of flats increased flats by almost 17.8% in Bolton and 14% in Oldham. 2.24 In terms of sales, some of the percentage changes are quite high due to the relatively small numbers involved but all types of residential properties at the GM level have increased over the year by around 30%. The most significant changes in sales by type were detached properties in Bury (49.4%%), semidetached properties in Salford (almost 42.9%), terraced properties in Stockport (41.6%) and an increase of 57% increase in sales of flats in Stockport. The only decrease in sales over the two periods were that of flats in Wigan (-6.3%), Bury (-1.1%) and Bolton (-1.0%). New Economy 016

Figure 16 Residential Prices Paid by Type - 2014 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flats/Apartments Area Price Paid ( ) Price Paid ( ) Price Paid ( ) Price Paid ( ) % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Change Bolton 243,580 2.8 132,832 6.2 90,159-1.1 95,102 17.8 Bury 249,829 5.8 152,310 7.4 112,873 9.8 92,686-0.6 Manchester 259,508 8.0 184,176 4.9 127,833 1.2 142,765 2.3 Oldham 256,975 8.5 135,419 1.6 96,748 5.9 113,258 14.0 Rochdale 220,471 6.2 128,045 3.5 92,375 0.9 81,291 3.6 Salford 242,758 5.8 150,163 6.2 108,347 5.4 107,220 1.0 Stockport 331,616 7.9 198,557 8.2 142,579 5.0 120,630-1.2 Tameside 217,934 7.0 129,890 0.1 100,924 4.0 84,905 5.9 Trafford 460,394 3.9 246,117 6.6 198,009 2.7 153,779 3.4 Wigan 206,294 2.2 121,887 4.2 87,544 2.8 80,670 6.1 GM 275,720 5.2 165,612 5.3 115,603 3.1 125,618 3.9 Figure 17 Residential Sales by Type 2014 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flats/Apartments Area Number of Sales % Annual Change Number of Sales % Annual Change Number of Sales % Annual Change Number of Sales % Annual Change Bolton 645 28.0 1,105 31.4 1,360 30.5 287-1.0 Bury 548 49.7 983 38.1 1,056 37.1 184-1.1 Manchester 303 28.4 1,685 34.2 2,092 23.3 2,062 30.6 Oldham 331 35.1 858 32.4 1,154 30.7 110 39.2 Rochdale 513 28.9 799 30.6 963 21.3 80 17.6 Salford 415 33.9 1,173 42.9 1,148 37.6 903 45.9 Stockport 1,075 35.7 1,954 26.3 1,378 41.6 504 57.0 Tameside 360 29.0 958 26.7 1,179 37.3 136 20.4 Trafford 578 18.4 1,632 26.1 991 23.6 557 26.6 Wigan 835 18.6 1,589 25.3 1,325 29.8 148-6.3 GM 5,603 29.6 12,736 30.6 12,646 30.7 4,971 29.0 Source: Land Registry Price Paid aggregated postcode data

New Build 2.25 The sale of new build property is also a good indication of activity within the housing market and shows where new housing development is being brought on to the market as well as where it is being purchased. The table below (Figure 18) shows the sale of new build properties by price and number of sales across GM in 2014. Figure 18 Residential Properties: New Build Prices and Sales 2014 District Number of Sales Price Paid % Change in Sales % Change in Price Bolton 184 161,475-20.0 12.9 Bury 155 164,381-8.8 29.4 Manchester 619 149,827-5.1 6.5 Oldham 169 147,727 56.5-12.1 Rochdale 219 174,538-15.8 1.5 Salford 559 149,972 37.3-6.9 Stockport 93 291,172 17.7 14.1 Tameside 146 168,040-3.9 0.9 Trafford 57 304,144-44.1 22.4 Wigan 225 183,374-16.4-1.5 GM 2,426 167,010-0.1 2.6 Source: Land Registry Price Paid data 2.26 The average price for a new build property in GM was 167,010 during 2014 an increase of 2.6% since 2013. There was a slight decrease in the number of new build sales across GM at -0.1% with a total of 2,426 sales (compared to the peak of new build sales in 2007 of 6,965). This decrease in new build sales was particularly pronounced in Trafford with a decrease of -44% with just 57 new build sales in 2014. Change in new build sales were particularly pronounced in Oldham (56.5%) and Salford (37.3%). In terms of numbers the highest number of new build sales is in Manchester (619) and Salford (559). The change in new build prices was highest in Bury (29.4%) but interestingly although Oldham had the highest change in new build sales it had the highest decrease in prices (-12.1%). The reverse is true for Trafford which had the highest decrease in new build sales (-44.1%) but a high level of change in prices (22.4%) 2.27 Figure 19 overleaf shows this new build activity by house type. Of the 2,426 new build sales in GM in 2014 the most number of properties were flats or apartments (761), focused around Manchester and Salford. In terms of detached properties there were 608 new build sales, particularly in Salford with 108 of these sales. There were very few new build sales of semi-detached and terraced properties in Stockport and Trafford.

Figure 19 New Build by Type in Greater Manchester - 2014 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flats/Apartments Price Price Price Area Sales Paid Sales Paid Sales Paid Sales Price Paid Bolton 63 239,968 15 162,576 25 161,238 81 100,293 Bury 60 209,165 42 141,927 45 126,095 8 161,743 Manchester 63 194,389 113 147,774 101 151,271 342 141,871 Oldham 16 217,965 99 129,684 41 159,959 13 160,108 Rochdale 89 215,829 64 152,192 64 142,718 2 70,350 Salford 108 219,004 111 170,002 91 161,193 249 106,999 Stockport 54 355,004 9 257,516 4 398,725 26 153,702 Tameside 38 217,616 43 161,415 45 158,849 20 108,769 Trafford 25 355,935 14 313,192 8 261,933 10 195,770 Wigan 92 240,041 56 159,530 67 139,934 10 86,616 GM 608 237,969 566 157,463 491 153,887 761 125,884 2.28 At ward level, as illustrated below in Figures 20 and 21, although numbers are small at this level the map does show the relative distribution of new build properties in GM in terms of sales and prices. As would be expected, a number of wards have not experienced sales of new build properties at all over the period (the areas shown in white) and the darkest areas are the wards with the most new build activity in terms of sales or the highest prices. In terms of number of sales there is a clear cluster towards the centre of the conurbation and these contain some of the cheapest prices (mainly due to the type of stock i.e.flats). Figure 20 New Economy 019

Figure 21 2.29 The tables below (Figure 22) The highest new build prices are located in the more peripheral areas in areas such as Heaton and Lostock in Bolton and Bramhall and Marple in Stockport. Although the sales figures should be interpreted with caution due to the small number involved at ward level. Figure 22 New Build - Highest Prices by Ward in GM 2014 Ward District Price Heaton and Lostock Bolton 920,000 Marple North Stockport 445,000 Shevington with Lower Ground Wigan 394,995 Cheadle and Gatley Stockport 376,350 Broadheath Trafford 370,603 Astley Mosley Common Wigan 370,000 Aspull New Springs Whelley Wigan 367,500 Worsley Salford 364,333 Norden Rochdale 360,000 Bowdon Trafford 357,853 New Build - Highest Number of Sales by Ward in GM 2014 Ward District Sales Ordsall Salford 176 Ancoats and Clayton Manchester 135 Bradford Manchester 116 Broughton Salford 90 Miles Platting and Newton Heath Manchester 74 West Heywood Rochdale 61 Radcliffe West Bury 59 St James' Oldham 53 Walkden North Salford 50 North Manor Bury 49 Source: Land Registry New Economy 020

3 Residential Lettings 3.1 Rental levels are a key indicator of the level of activity and the quality of the private rented stock. Any change in these levels gives indication of any pressure being placed on the private rented sector particularly in relation to the lack of available home ownership options. Data relating to the private rented sector has always been difficult to source compared to house sales. The data presented in this section is very much a sample derived from a scan of estate agents across Greater Manchester and extreme anomalies have been removed from the data and should be caveated as such especially at lower level geographies. As a result it should be treated as a very broad guide of rental levels in the higher end of the rental market of an area Houses 3.2 The table overleaf (Figure 23) shows average rental prices and the number of available properties as a snapshot of activity in January 2015. On average in GM a two bed property can be rented for about 500 per calendar month rising to just over 690 per calendar month for a three bed properties and just over 1,100 per calendar month for a four bed property. As with house prices the distribution of levels of rent across the conurbation does vary. For example, the average three bed house in Wigan can be rented for 533 per calendar month compared to 919 per calendar month in Trafford. Generally, rental levels appear to be fairly stable with only small change overall in GM of around +1.2% over the year, where the sample is small, as for 4 bed properties the % changes can be higher. New Economy 021

Figure 23 Rental Prices and Available Houses to Rent in Greater Manchester Area/Type Rent (pcm) January 2015 Number of Available Properties in sample Change in Rent (pcm) Since January 2014 2 Bed GM 512 1,643-0.6 Bolton 457 273 1.7 Bury 532 129 4.9 Manchester 589 216-0.2 Oldham 473 147 4.3 Rochdale 470 155 2.8 Salford 545 120 2.4 Stockport 595 127 1.1 Tameside 494 162 2.4 Trafford 727 55 6.7 Wigan 450 259 0.0 3 Bed GM 690 1,777 1.0 Bolton 562 175 1.0 Bury 668 129 4.0 Manchester 816 541 4.9 Oldham 554 88-2.4 Rochdale 551 117-0.4 Salford 680 137 5.7 Stockport 758 139-0.9 Tameside 601 117 3.1 Trafford 919 107 4.1 Wigan 533 227 0.9 4 Bed GM 1,171 844 4.5 Bolton 876 29 14.8 Bury 1,053 32 14.8 Manchester 1,242 559 6.0 Oldham 724 12-21.2 Rochdale 810 30-9.9 Salford 983 63-0.7 Stockport 1,262 29-5.0 Tameside 784 19 0.5 Trafford 1,551 34 11.7 Wigan 968 37 16.4 All 2,3,and 4 Bed Houses in GM 717 4,264 1.2 Source: GM Estate Agents New Economy 022

3.3 At a more local level there are also clear distinctions of rental levels within the districts. The map below (Figure 24) shows the distribution of house rental values across Greater Manchester at ward level. The distribution of house price rentals is similar spatially to that of house prices in that the highest values occur to the south of the conurbation and in peripheral areas and the lowest levels in the central areas of the districts in the north. Figure 24 New Economy 023

Apartments/Flats 3.4 The table below (Figure 25) shows rental values of apartments and flats in Greater Manchester by district in January 2015. Clearly Manchester and Salford have the highest number of flats/apartments in their rental stock offer and care should be taken when interpreting the figures, particularly in the other districts where numbers are very small. On average a studio apartment can be rented in Greater Manchester for 426 per calendar month, 523 for a 1 bed property, 662 for a two bed property and just under 1,169 for a 4 bed property. All these flat types have increased overall in GM since January 2014 but 3 bed flats have increased the most. Figure 25 Rental prices and available flats/apartments for rent in Greater Manchester Area/Type Rent January 2015 (pcm) Number of Available Properties in sample Change in rent (pcm) since January 2014 Studio GM 426 119 1.0 Bolton 346 17 1.4 Bury 405 5 42.5 Manchester 455 48-0.1 Oldham - - - Rochdale 351 4-2.4 Salford 510 22 18.3 Stockport 393 5-10.1 Tameside 363 8 8.6 Trafford 350 5-17.2 Wigan 350 5-2.6 1 Bed Flat GM 523 1,134 5.0 Bolton 388 101-2.3 Bury 425 63 4.8 Manchester 604 509 6.5 Oldham 443 20 24.3 Rochdale 374 29-1.1 Salford 541 172 7.8 Stockport 478 69 0.3 Tameside 416 58 3.2 Trafford 510 49 2.0 Wigan 383 64 1.0 New Economy 024

2 Bed Flat GM 662 1,994 3.4 Bolton 490 156 1.6 Bury 562 114 11.5 Manchester 773 908 3.2 Oldham 528 28 9.9 Rochdale 497 64-5.0 Salford 649 278 0.5 Stockport 611 96-0.3 Tameside 488 78-0.6 Trafford 733 112 0.4 Wigan 457 160 2.7 3 Bed Flat GM 1,169 219 14.5 Bolton 615 7 16.8 Bury 644 2-13.1 Manchester 1,195 157 17.7 Oldham 451 1 Rochdale 559 2-5.1 Salford 918 24 11.7 Stockport 672 5 0.3 Tameside 559 2 18.7 Trafford 2,055 16-9.3 Wigan 624 3 16.9 Grand Total 641 3,466 3.4 Source: GM Estate Agents 3.5 At a more local level the map below shows the spatial distribution of the rental values of apartments and flats across GM (Figure 26). The darkest areas, which attract a rental value per calendar month of over 700 are concentrated to the south of Trafford and in the regional centre (where the main apartment market of Greater Manchester exists). Where no data is specified it means that the data in the sample from the state agents was too small to give a meaningful average. New Economy 025

Figure 26 3.6 As mentioned previously the apartment market in Greater Manchester is particularly focused upon the regional centre and in particular Manchester city centre and Salford Quays. Further details of the apartment market in these areas are highlighted in the tables overleaf (Figure 27). 3.7 The Manchester city centre market below includes primarily, in terms of residential areas, Castlefield, Ancoats and the Northern Quarter. The data below from GM estate agents shows that rental levels in this defined areas of the city centre range from 632 per calendar month for a studio flat/apartment to just over 1,000 for a 2 bed flat/apartment and 2,500 for a 3 bed flat/apartment. Overall the rental levels of apartments have shown some increase in the city centre (9.5% compared to January 2014). These figures are skewed, however, by the small number of properties in the sample in some categories. 3.8 As of January 2015 an average flat/apartment could be rented in Salford Quays for around 800 per calendar month rising to over 900 for a 2 or 3 bed flat/apartment. Again caution has to be taken interpreting these figures due to the sample size. Studio flats/apartments have shown the most increase over the year but overall rental levels seem to be fairly stable. New Economy 026

Figure 27 Rental Levels in: Manchester City Centre Jan-15 Jan-14 Row Labels Number in sample 2015 Price per Calendar Month (Jan 2015) Number in sample 2014 Price per Calendar Month (Jan 2014) % Change in Price per calendar month (2014 to 2015 Studio 4 632 4 651-3.0 1 Bed Flat 55 768 60 707 8.6 2 Bed Flat 83 1,057 74 1,013 4.4 3 Bed Flat 6 2,505 4 2,337 7.2 All 148 997 142 911 9.5 Salford Quays Jan-15 Jan-14 % Change in Type Price per Calendar Price per Calendar Price per calendar month Sample size Month (Jan 2015) Sample size Month (Jan 2014) (2014 to 2015) Studio 3 601 5 524 14.7 1 Bed Flat 23 675 29 654 3.3 2 Bed Flat 28 944 66 899 4.9 3 Bed Flat 1 901 6 890 1.3 All 55 812 106 814-0.2 HCA Programmes 3.9 The table below (Figure 28) illustrates, for reference, the main programmes from the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) broken down by number of units started and number of units completed during the financial year 2013/14 for selected areas (released in June 2015) New Economy 027

Figure 28 Homes and Communities Agency: Housing Starts and Completions All programmes except Help to Buy - 1 April 2013-31 March 2014 Starts on Site Completions Area Affordable Home Ownership Affordable Home Ownership Affordable Rent Social Rent Intermediate Rent Total Affordable* Market** Total Affordable Rent Social Rent Intermediate Rent Total Affordable* Market* Total Bolton 118 3 0 0 121 0 121 229 0 0 10 239 12 251 Bury 75 0 0 0 75 0 75 61 0 0 9 70 0 70 Manchester 179 14 0 2 195 77 272 267 46 0 47 360 73 433 Oldham 105 0 0 0 105 27 132 193 0 0 21 214 41 255 Rochdale 42 65 0 0 107 69 176 94 0 0 12 106 42 148 Salford 293 66 0 3 362 0 362 125 0 0 14 139 0 139 Stockport 51 34 0 14 99 3 102 68 34 0 30 132 0 132 Tameside 166 0 0 11 177 51 228 127 0 0 16 143 67 210 Trafford 48 4 0 14 66 0 66 128 4 0 36 168 0 168 Wigan 115 0 0 0 115 0 115 38 0 0 13 51 0 51 North West 4,337 437 0 359 5,133 1,156 6,289 3,195 203 11 563 3,972 629 4,601 ENGLAND*** 25,486 2,638 0 4,738 32,862 5,983 38,845 17,094 4,487 117 5,945 27,643 6,818 34,461 Notes: *Total affordable housing is the sum of Affordable Rent, Social Rent, Intermediate Rent and Affordable Home Ownership ** Market housing is private housing for rent or sale where the rental value or market price is set mainly in the open market *** Excludes non-hca London delivery New Economy 028