Research Q1 Office market report Moscow Highlights In Q1 new delivery volume has decreased to historically low level of 63 thousand sq m. Vacancy rate has reached the level of 22.5% in Class A and 17.6% in Class B office buildings in sum indicating 2.9 million sq m. Average asking rental rates has decreased by 2 3% to 24,726 in Class A offices and 14,613 in Class B.
Office market report. Moscow Office market report Moscow Key indicators. Dynamics* Konstantin Losiukov Director, Office Department Knight Frank ʺFollowing shocks and uncertainties office market has experienced over the past, more clear rules of interaction between landlords and tenants have been formed. The market has reached the balance in its lower point, as evidenced by the volume of already closed and pending transactions. Today little doubt remains that the market is unlikely to return to the same conditions in terms of foreign currency applicability. Despite the Russian ruble strengthening and stabilization, the risk of currency fluctuations is still present, in this connection ruble lease rates have become a major prerequisite for both Russian and foreign companies operating in the Russian marketʺ. Total stock, thousand sq m 15,602 including, thousand sq m 3,821 11,781 Delivered in Q1, thousand sq m 63 including, thousand sq m 63 Vacancy rate, % Average weighed asking rental rate** Rental rates range** Average OPEX rate***, New delivery volume dynamics for Class A and B offices 22.5 (-1.9 p. p.)* 467 (-1.6%)* 24,726 (-1.7%)* 320 900 10,000 45,000 * Compared to Q4 2015 ** Excluding operational expenses, utility bills and VAT (18%) *** OPEX rate does not consider change related to property tax rate increase 17.6 (+1.1 p. p.)* 276 (-3.1%)* 14,613 (-3.1%)* 320 550 7,500 35,000 4,000 7,500 2,500 4,500 thousand sq m % 2,000 25 1,800 1, 20 1,400 1,200 15 1,000 800 10 400 5 200 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F 2017 F Class A and B inventory growth 2
Q1 Research Dynamics of take-up, delivery and vacancy rates of Classes A and B offices thousand sq m 29.8% % 800 30 700 500 400 300 200 100 24.4% 21.5% 16.5% 17.1% 16.2% 15.3% 11.5% 2013 F 2013 F Take-up volume Delievery volume Vacancy rate 25 20 15 10 5 0 Supply Key office projects delivered in Q1 * and due to be commissioned in The total stock of Class A and B offices in Moscow has totaled 15.6 million sq m corresponding 24% to Class A and 76% to Class B office buildings. 63,1 thousand sq m of quality office space were delivered in Q1 30% less on- a record low level in the history of Moscow office real estate market. While not a single Class A office building was delivered for the first three months of. Class A vacancy rate continued to decline to 22.5% due to falling volumes of new construction and completion of large transactions, which began in the middle of last. Class B vacancy rate also maintains last 's trend of fluctuations in the range of 2 p. p and reached the level of 17.6%. Rublevskoe Hwy Leningradskoe Hwy Novator 20,000 sq m Volokolamskoe Hwy NTC of RF (II phase) Seven One 7,500 sq m 20,000 sq m Imperial Park 7,500 sq m Dmitrovsoe Hw y evskoe Hwy Altufi Otradniy (phase II) 37,000 sq m Yaroslavskoye Hwy VTB Arena Park (phase I) 30,504 sq m GR Pekin Gardens Federation Tower (East) 4,247 sq m 82,610 sq m Oasis 39,493 sq m BC on B. Pionerskaya St 25,000 sq m Loft Ville (bld. 2) 21,500 sq m ТТR Dekart 28,125 sq m Ryazanskiy Ave NEOPOLIS 52,700 sq m G10 (phase I) 38,000 sq m Leninskiy Ave Profsoyuznaya St Selectica 16,000 sq m Varshavskoe Hwy Каширское ш. Concentration of office space inside GR, 19% between GR and TTR, 34% outside TTR, 47% Existing Under construction Knight Frank exclusive/ co-exclusive consultant * Office properties that received the delivery act in Q1 The building class is indicated according to the Moscow Research Forum Office Classification of 2013 3
Office market report. Moscow Demand Net take-up volume of Q1 amounted to 183,5 thousand sq m, five times higher than in the previous. Such sharp increase was due to the closure of two major transactions of about 142 thousand sq m. According to the results of the first quarter the share of lease renegotiation transactions in the total transactions volume remained significantly high and amounted to 64%. In some cases, despite former renegotiations in 2014 2015, tenants got back to the negotiation process to fix new conditions for a longer period. Today state-owned companies boost the market with the share of lease and purchase transactions increased from 5% in 2014 to 36% in 2015. In Q1 their influence was also significant: due to several large transactions the figure reached 73% (149.8 thousand sq m). Their high activity was triggered due to the costs reduction, as well as recent initiative of the Government to prohibit state-owned companies from constructing buildings for their offices. Q1 tenant mix structure was defined by two major transactions started in 2015 and completed only at the beginning of this. Owing to the acquisition of Eurasia Tower by VTB Group and purchase of 55 thousand sq m of office space in OKO Multifunctional Complex by Moscow City Government, the share of financial sector companies accounted for 43%, and the share of companies representing the government 27%. These events affected the territorial structure of demand: 71% of leased and purchased office space were signed in facilities located in MIBC Moscow- City, while only 6% of the total volume fell on the share of the Central Business District. Key office space lease and purchase transactions closed in Q1 Rublevskoe Hwy Leningradskoe Hwy Kuntsevo Plaza Volokolamskoe Hwy SkyLight Stroytransgaz 1,127 sq m Four Winds Moscow City Government 55,123 sq m Philip Morris 4,784 sq m Tele2 Russia 2,209 sq m Oko Eurasia Tower Park Pobedy Leninskiy Ave Dmitrovsoe Hw Vodniy RUSAL 15,351 sq m Profsoyuznaya St y Altufievskoe Hwy WTC INTREK 2,068 sq m VTB 86,834 sq m PIK-Comfort 2,825 sq m Imperial Tobacco 1,679 sq m GR Varshavskoe Hwy Delta Plaza ТТR Port Plaza Urban Group 1, sq m 6 B. Yakimanka st Sirius Park Yaroslavskoye Hwy Smith & Nephew 1,194 sq m Rusatom Overseas 3,010 sq m Simonov Plaza Каширское ш. Ryazanskiy Ave REA Kapitalnoye Stroitelstvo 3,720 sq m Concentration of office space take-up outside TTR, 10% inside GR, 7% between GR and TTR, 83% Office centres located on the outside of the transport ring within the 500 m distance belong to the proximate ring submarket Knight Frank acted as a consultant of the transaction Tenant mix 3% 3% 3% Banking / Finance/ Investment Public administration 4% Manufacturing 4% FMCG* / Pharmaceutical 5% 43% Oil / Gas / Mining 8% TMT** Real estate Energy Other*** 27% * Fast moving consumer goods ** Technology, media and telecommunications *** Business services / No data 4
Q1 Research Commercial terms Today the commercial terms are still a key pillar in determining the tenant sentiment. After falling to historically low level at the end of 2015 Class A rents remain almost unchanged from January to March at 467 and 24,726. At the same time, Class B offices witnessed the reduction by 3% to 276 and 14,613. Though over 78% of the vacant Class A supply is nominated in Russian rubles, the landlords of individual properties especially with a premium location still retain foreign pricing and are not willing to fix the exchange rate or define the exchange rate band for a long-term lease. Companies are still interested in long-term agreements to fix the current lease terms, while the landlords waiting for the market recovery prefer 3 5- lease agreements. The most important point to negotiate in is rental rate indexation. The indexation of ruble rental rates usually equated to the CPI of the Russian Federation (after reaching double-digit inflation by the end of 2015) is now a subject for discussion. The restriction of the upper level can be applied as an alternative together with equating of indexation to other macroeconomic indicators or a fixed increase level of lease payments. Average asking rental rates dynamics for Class A and B offices denominated in USD 1, 1,400 1,500 610 590 570 530 530 508 506 1,200 490 474 467 1,000 800 400 200 850 830 833 800 805 670 760 590 480 483 492 400 455 314 474 460 285 273 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F 450 320 314 309 310 300 297 294 290 285 280 276 270 Average asking rental rates dynamics for Class A and B offices denominated in RUB 40,000 37,311 35,000 30,144 30,000 21,284 25,000 25,885 25,525 25,149 24,398 24,402 21,143 23,086 20,000 20,569 17,150 15,103 15,000 15,698 15,331 15,009 14,454 13,821 14,110 12,707 10,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F 31,500 30,144 30,000 28,093 28,500 27,321 26,670 27,000 25,500 25,149 24,726 24,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 17,150 16,769 15,731 15,452 15,103 14,613 14,000 5
Office market report. Moscow Moscow submarket data. Key indicators Submarket Lease area, thousand sq m Class A Average rental rates $/sq m/ rub./sq m/ Vacancy rate, % Class B Average rental rates $/sq m/ rub./sq m/ Vacancy rate, % Boulevard Central business Ring district 712 1,011 53,584 13.8 469 24,856 8.9 South 918 487 25,810 21.5 462 24,460 14.0 Garden Ring West 273 796 42,193 27.9 505 26,752 9.3 546 28,913 17.4 458 24,298 North 660 695 36,854 5.2 27,505 15.5 14.2 East 401 26,472 26.9 20,730 16.3 Leninskiy 278 40,000 17,372 18.5 Tulskiy 921 14,339 17.1 Khamovniki 260 772 40,921 19.0 23,776 5.0 Kievskiy 424 16,893 80.8 19,988 61.2 Presnenskiy 357 28,022 9.1 20,244 16.1 Third Prospekt Mira 162 480 19,818 25,459 29.1 31.3 319 20,136 16,919 31.7 17.9 Transport Ring Tverskoy- 752 679 35,975 16.2 376 19,913 8.0 Novoslobodskiy Basmanniy 532 16,729 12.1 Taganskiy 234 450 82.9 247 13,089 17.7 Volgogradskiy 432 20,399 48.0 15,339 14.4 MIBC Moscow-City 913 511 27,107 20.8 North 700 511 27,094 1.6 13,684 21.9 TTR- South 1,734 344 18,222 42.2 12,356 19.1 371 19,637 21.8 250 13,244 West 1,144 509 26,860 12.4 18,592 10.8 18.0 East 658 13,555 38.4 10,483 20.8 North 545 6,370 12.2 South 444 11,000 95.5 8,218 23.0 279 14,811 28.0 191 10,098 West 1,900 300 15,905 23.1 11,523 27.7 21.4 East 248 7,072 10.1 Total 15,602 467 24,726 22.5 276 14,613 17.6 Forecast According to the baseline scenario of the updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development the signs of recovery from the recession of the Russian economy are expected not earlier than in 2017. At the same time, the sanctions restrictions against Russia may be retained in, still restricting the development plans of both Russian and foreign companies. Due to decrease in development activity new delivery volume will not exceed 400 thousand sq m in and 300 thousand sq m in 2017 leading to a further reduction in vacancy rates in case of current take-up volumes. Thus, taking into account the potential demand recovery and the reduction of available office space volume, we can expect a rental rates increase in 2017. We expect that lease extensions as well as the move to new offices due to lease expiration will prevail in the structure of total transactions in. Lease renegotiations will gain still a significant market share in H1. The highly competitive office market will continue to adapt to changing internal and external conditions in the coming. In particular, we expect a further strengthening of the market operating in the Russian national currency. Despite some stabilization of the ruble against foreign currencies, the risk of currency fluctuations is considered as a key risk for companies in the search for a new office. Research Olga Yasko Director, Russia & CIS olga.yasko@ru.knightfrank.com Offices Konstantin Losiukov Director konstantin.losiukov@ru.knightfrank.com +7 (495) 981 0000 Knight Frank LLP This overview is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, view and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank. 6