Research & Forecast Report Long Island OFFICE MARKET Q1 2015 The Rise of the Gold Coast Rose Liu Research & Financial Analyst Long Island Takeaways Class A & B In the first quarter of 2015, Long Island Office Market weakened somewhat, which resulted in a higher vacancy rate and lower net absorption. Although the momentum tapered we still made significant progress as compared to Q1 2014. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Q 1 2015 Q2 2015* Q 1 2015 Q2 2015* VACANCY Vacancy rates increased overall by 10 basis points (bps) to 11.0% in the first quarter of 2015, nothwithstanding that the vacancy rate in County decreased to 11.1%. County climbed to 10.9% from 10.4% in the first quarter of 2015. NET ABSORPTION Average asking rental rates improved to $26.43 per square foot, a 0.7% increase from the last quarter of 2014. Note: *Projected **Rental rates for current quarter are for suburban area. CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** Net absorption dipped approximately 300,000 square feet into negative 81,000 square feet in Q1 2015. Due to a rising unemployment rate on Long Island in the first quarter and the space efficiency trend contributing to the lower demand for office use. Additionally, adverse weather during the first quarter of 2015 was another key factor cooling off the office market. Yet, with the overall economic recovery predicted for the remainder of the year and warmer weather more conducive to productivity, the office market is expected to accelerate in the second quarter of 2015. Summary Statistics Q1 2015 Long Island Office Market Long Island* Vacancy Rate 11.1% 10.9% 11.0% -20 50 10 Net Absorption 56.5-137.7-81.2 Vacancy Rate 12.1 11.6 11.9-20.0-40.0-60.0 Suburban Class A & B $29.41 $23.40 $26.43 Change From Q4 2014 0.86% 0.52% 0.69% Suburban Class A $33.47 $28.27 $31.23 Change From Q4 2014 0.67% 0.10% 0.87% Change From Q4 2014 (basis points) (Thousand Square Feet) (Class A) Net Absorption (Class A, Thousand Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year *Long Island Office Market refers to & Counties; 10,000 square feet and above
Overview Office asking rents in both and Counties continued to improve in the first quarter of 2015. Vacancy rates increased slightly throughout Long Island, with the exception of the Western, Central, Southern submarkets. The Long Island unemployment rate jumped to approximately 5.3% in Q1 2015 from 4.5% in Q4 2014. Unemployment Trends - & 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1Q2014 5.9% Unemployed in Thousands Unemployment Rate 2Q2014 4.9% 5.1% 4.5% 5.3% 3Q2014 Source: NYS Department of Labor 4Q2014 1Q2015 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Update Vacancy Rates, Asking Rents, & Absorption Vacancy Rates Average Asking Rents Net Absorption (in Thousands) Class A Class A&B Western Northern Central Eastern Southern Western Central Western Northern Central Eastern Southern Western Central Western Northern Central Eastern Southern Western Central 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% $0 $15 $30 (150) (100) (50) 0 50 100 Source: CoStar and Colliers International LI, Inc. Vacancy Again the impact of a harsh winter caused a slight increase in availability to 11.0% in the first quarter of 2015, a 0.1% increase from the last quarter of 2014.However, the vacancy rate for County dipped 20 bps into 11.1% in Q1 2015 and followed a sharp 100 bps drop in Q1 2014. The vacancy rate for County trended upwards reaching 10.9% in Q1 2015, a 0.5% increase from Q4 2014. The Central A and B submarket outperformed all other submarkets, recording a vacancy rate decrease of 50 bps to 9.4% in Q1 2015. In comparison, the vacancy rate for the Northern submarket surged significantly by 3.5% to 13.3% in the first quarter of 2015. Other submarkets experienced mixed vacancy rates with slight fluctuations during the last few quarters. For Class A buildings the vacancy rate in the and rose to 11.9% in Q1 2015 from 10.6% in Q4 2014. The vacancy rates for Class A buildings climbed to 12.1% and 11.6% in and Counties respectively balanced out by a sharp decrease in availability in the Central submarket of 120 bps to 8.2% in Q1 2015 from 9.4% in Q1 2014. Rental Rate The average asking rental rates continued to climb, reaching $26.43 per square foot throughout the Long Island region in the first quarter of 2015, approximately a 0.7% increase from the last quarter of 2014. Likewise, the rental rates averaged at $29.41 per square foot in County and $23.40 per square foot in County. All of the submarkets reflected improvements in the average asking rental rates with the exception of the Central submarket, which declined to $28.33 per square foot in Q1 2015 from $29.00 per square foot in Q4 2014. The dichotomy of higher occupancy rates in the Central submarket was produced through for lower rental prices. With large blocks of space becoming scare, the average asking rents for Class A buildings especially continued its upward trend reaching $31.23 per square foot, up from $30.96 per square foot in Q4 2014. In the past 5 quarters the rent for Class A buildings has risen $1.00 psf. 2 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q1 2015 Long Island Colliers International
Absorption Unfortunately, net absorption plunged to negative 81,178 square feet in Q1 2015 from 233,718 positive square feet in Q4 2014. It did remain positive at approximately 56,000 square feet in County while weighed down the overall with negative 138,000 square feet in Q1 2015. The Central submarket reported the highest net absorption totaling 60,000 square feet. Buildings that had lowest net absorption in Q1 2015 included 1 Jericho Plaza with negative 85,000 square feet and 165 Oser Avenue in Hauppauge totaling in excess of negative 34,000 square feet. The net absorption for Class A buildings on Long Island was also down to approximately negative 60,000 square feet. Sale & Lease Activity Although sale and lease activity slowed in the first quarter of 2015, there were a number of large deals completed during the quarter. Top lease signings included a 23,000 square foot office building at 1 Michael Avenue in Farmingdale by Human First. Urban Financial leased 12,625 square feet at 888 Veterans Memorial Highway in Hauppauge. Manhattan-based real estate investment company Philips International restructured the debt at 60 Cuttermill Road Great Neck with 107,000 square feet sold for $33.5 million, which equaled to approximately $313.00 per square foot. Another major transaction was the sale of 444 Merrick Road, Lynbrook a 106,403 square foot Class B office building that was sold for $41,000,000, which was a milestone in the Southern submarket. Absorption - vs. (Square Feet) 0 (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) (40,000) (50,000) (60,000) 100,000 50,000 0 (50,000) (100,000) (150,000) (19,975) Net Absorption Class A & B 1Q 2015 56,486 Long Island (81,178) (137,664) Net Absorption Class A 1Q 2015 (39,784) Long Island (59,759) 1Q15 1Q15 Source: CoStar and Colliers International LI, Inc. Update Transaction Highlights office SALE ACTIVITY Property Address Town Submarket Size SF Sale Price 60 Cuttermill Road Great Neck Western 107,000 $33,500,000 444 Merrick Road Lynbrook Southern 106,403 $41,000,000 1975 Elmont Road Elmont Western 41,040 $ 6,700,000 235 Brookside Drive Hauppauge Central 13,526 $ 2,420,000 office LEASE ACTIVITY Property Address Town Submarket Size SF Lease Type 1 Michael Avenue Farmingdale Eastern 23,000 Lease 888 Veterans Memorial Hwy Hauppauge Central 12,625 Lease 400 Broadhollow Road Melville Western 12,000 Lease 999 Stewart Avenue Bethpage Eastern 10,643 Renewal 3 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q1 2015 Long Island Colliers International
UPDATE - MARKET STATISTICS SNAPSHOT LONG ISLAND Class A & B COUNTY VACANCY RATE AVERAGE ASKING RENTS 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 Total 11.1% 11.3% 11.8% 11.9% $29.41 $29.16 $29.10 $29.14 495 Bldgs Lease 10.9% 11.1% 11.6% 11.6% $29.40 $29.18 $29.12 $29.19 Sublease 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% $29.98 $27.84 $28.26 $26.56 Total 10.9% 10.4% 10.5% 10.2% $23.40 $23.28 $23.27 $23.30 509 Bldgs Lease 10.3% 9.9% 10.1% 9.7% $23.41 $23.31 $23.40 $23.43 Sublease 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% $23.15 $21.77 $20.40 $20.41 Long Island Total 11.0% 10.9% 11.3% 11.2% $26.43 $26.25 $26.10 $26.21 1,004 Bldgs Lease 10.6% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% $26.45 $26.28 $26.21 $26.34 Sublease 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% $24.93 $23.97 $22.83 $22.02 Total 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.6% $33.47 $33.25 $33.24 $33.47 75 Class A Bldgs Lease 11.6% 11.5% 11.3% 10.9% $33.47 $33.24 $33.39 $33.63 Sublease 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% $32.56 $34.42 $28.88 $27.90 Total 11.6% 11.2% 11.5% 11.3% $28.27 $28.24 $27.68 $27.79 72 Class A Bldgs Lease 10.5% 10.4% 10.7% 10.2% $28.25 $28.21 $28.28 $28.52 Sublease 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% $29.26 $32.31 $20.46 $20.29 Long Island Total 11.9% 10.6% 11.6% 11.4% $31.23 $30.96 $30.51 $30.64 147 Class A Bldgs Lease 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 10.6% $31.25 $30.95 $30.94 $31.16 Sublease 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% $30.36 $33.24 $23.04 $22.10 $31.0 12.00% $29.0 10.00% Average Asking Rent $27.0 $25.0 $23.0 $21.0 $19.0 & 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Vacancy Rate Lease Vacancy Lease Ave. Rents Sublease Vacancy Sublease Ave. Rents Source: CoStar and Colliers International LI Inc. 4 Long Island Research & Forecast Report Q1 2015 Long Island Colliers International
Featured Listings 1581 franklin avenue, garden city +/- 15,000 SF office building for sale/lease Upgraded finishes throughout Highly visible signage is available 5 cars parking per 1,000 SF Prominent address with prominent exposure 225 rabro drive, hauppauge 40,000 SF office space for Sale/Lease Situated on 3.60 Acres 1 Drive-In Door +/- 20 Ceiling Height 1,200 Amps/3 Phase @277/480 Volts 210 car parking inclusive of 6 handicapped spaces 1981/1983 marcus ave, lake success 350,000 SF Building for Lease/Sale Beautiful campus setting Cafeteria in Building Convenient access to major highways Underground parking 401 franklin avenue, garden city +/- 5,700 SF Office space for lease Walk less than 500 yards to the LIRR Atrium, on-site food service & health club Accessible to all major highways Near shops/restaurants & Garden City Hotel/ US Post Office Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 5 Colliers International Long Island 1981 Marcus Avenue, Suite E104 Lake Success, New York 11042 +1 516 328 6500 colliers.com/long Island North American Research & Forecast Report Q4 2014 Office Market Outlook Colliers International
502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 Market Contact: Rose Liu Research & Financial Analyst Long Island Main +1 516 328 6500 Ext. 555 Dir +1 516 284 3447 rose.liu@colliers.com $2.3 billion in annual revenue 1.7 billion square feet under management 16,300 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 502 offices in 67 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.