Research & Forecast Report GREATER PHOENIX MULTIFAMILY 3Q 2 With Low, Pushing Higher Key Takeaways > > The Greater Phoenix multifamily market strengthened somewhat during the third quarter, with vacancy dipping and rents rising. The improvement in vacancy has continued even as developers have brought new units to the market. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Market 3Q 2 Market 3Q 2 > > ended the third quarter at 5.7 percent, and the rate has been below 6 percent for most of the past two years. At the submarket level, vacancy has remained in a tight band in most areas in Greater Phoenix. Transaction Activity Price Per Unit Cap Rates > > are pushing higher, having advanced by 7 percent in the past year to $928 per month. Further gains are anticipated going forward. > > Investment activity slowed in the third quarter, but velocity is well ahead of the 2 pace. Prices are up from last year, while cap rates have remained essentially flat. Greater Phoenix Multifamily Market Conditions remained strong in the Greater Phoenix multifamily market during the third quarter. is well below the market s long-term average rate, even as new development has been active for the past several quarters. New supply is being matched by ongoing demand growth, with renters filling new units as they come online. One reason for this is that development has been concentrated in a handful of very popular, low-vacancy submarkets in Tempe and Scottsdale as well as in Downtown Phoenix. in Greater Phoenix has been well below the metro average for the past few years, and these tight conditions are supporting ongoing rent gains. Asking rents rose by more than 6 percent in 2 and a greater increase is forecast for this year. are rising as leases renew, while the delivery newer, more expensive units is pushing the overall market average higher. Summary Statistics Phoenix Market Rate 5.7% Change from 3Q 2 (bps) -1 Asking Per Month $928 Change from 3Q 2 7.% Median Sales Price Per Unit (YTD) $97,8 Average Cap Rate 5.7%
Greater Phoenix Multifamily Market (continued) Investment activity slowed in the third quarter, but sales velocity thus far in 2 is ahead of last year s pace. The continued improvement in property fundamentals is broadening the base of properties that are attracting investor attention. During the third quarter, more Class B and Class C properties changed hands than had transacted in earlier quarters. With more low- and mid-tier properties changing hands, prices dipped somewhat in the third quarter, but the median price in 2 is considerably higher than the 2 median price. SUBMARKET STATISTICS Submarket Name 3Q 2 3Q 2 Annual Change (BPS) 3Q 2 3Q 2 Annual Rent Change (%) S Paradise Valley 3. 4.5% (9) $77 $726 6.1% S Gilbert/Queen Creek 4.5% 4. (1) $1,83 $985 9.9% S Tempe 4. 4.9% (3) $1, $972 4.3% Goodyear/Avondale 4.7% 5.3% (6) $941 $869 8.3% Central City/Sky Harbor 4. 4.7% 1 $1,282 $1,286 -.3% N Mesa 4.9% 5. (3) $79 $734 7. Maryvale/Estrella 5.% 5. (8) $726 $67 8. Deer Valley/N Peoria 5.% 4. 2 $975 $938 3.9% W Central Phoenix 5. 7.5% (23) $832 $584 42.5% N Tempe 5. 6.5% () $1,89 $1,33 5. E Central Phoenix 5.3% 5.9% (6) $873 $831 5.1% S Phoenix/Laveen 5.3% 5.3% - $874 $875 -.1% Chandler 5. 5.1% 3 $1,53 $982 7. E Mesa/Apache Junction 5. 5.5% (1) $899 $846 6.3% Glendale 5.5% 6.5% (1) $7 $659 8. S Mesa 5.5% 5.3% 2 $844 $778 8.5% NW Black Canyon 5.5% 6. (7) $788 $734 7. S Scottsdale 5.5% 4.9% 6 $1,176 $1, 6.7% Gilbert/Superstition Springs 5. 4. 1 $965 $897 7. Peoria/Sun City 5.7% 6.% (3) $9 $872 5.% Union Hills/Cave Creek 6.1% 5.3% 8 $9 $835 9. N Paradise Valley 6.1% 5.7% 4 $1,29 $1,1 1.9% North Mountain 6. 5.7% 5 $842 $793 6. Ahwatukee Foothills 6. 4.7% $1,17 $958 6. Central Phoenix/Encanto 6.5% 7.9% () $1,4 $1,22 1. N Scottsdale/Fountain Hills 6. 5.7% 9 $1,1 $1,84 7.1% N Central Phoenix/Alhambra 7.% 8.3% () $951 $863 1. Metrocenter 7.1% 7.% 1 $758 $673. NE Central Phoenix 7. 9.5% (17) $1,55 $1,55.% Central Black Canyon 11. 8.7% 31 $68 $589 3. 2 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 3Q 2 Multifamily Colliers International
Employment: > > Employers have added more than 5, workers in Greater Phoenix over the past months, a 2.6 percent gain. The current pace of expansion is more modest than it was one year ago, but Greater Phoenix remains a top- market nationally for annual net job additions. > > Construction employment has been surging since the beginning of 2, as residential and commercial development have gained momentum. During the past months, construction employment has increased by nearly 1 percent with the addition of 9,6 jobs. > > Financial companies continue to expand in Greater Phoenix. Employment in the financial activities sector has expanded by more than 3.5 percent in the past year as 6, new positions have been created. Several of the large banks that maintain a presence in the market are adding workers. Employment Overview Quarterly Jobs Added (s) 32 24 8 Number of Jobs Annual Change 3% 1% % Year-over-Year Employment Change Construction: > > Approximately 1,75 units were delivered in Greater Phoenix during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total for 2 to nearly 5, new units. This marked the sixth time in the past seven quarters that more than 1,5 rental units came online. > > Projects totaling approximately 7,9 units are currently under way. At least another 1,5 units are expected to be delivered by the end of 2, and approximately 6, rentals are expected to come online in 217. > > After spiking in the second quarter, multifamily permitting slowed in the past three months. In the past year, more than 7,3 multifamily permits have been issued, including nearly 6, thus far in 2. Construction Trends: Major Submarkets Units Completions 2-present Under Construction 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 : > > Multifamily vacancy in Greater Phoenix dipped during the third quarter, falling from 5.9 percent to 5.7 percent. The rate has been below 6 percent in six of the past seven quarters. Quarterly Trends > > Metrowide vacancy retreated 1 basis points during the past months. While the latest decline is modest, it continues an impressive streak; multifamily vacancy in Greater Phoenix has recorded year-over-year vacancy declines in every quarter since 21. > > At the submarket level, vacancy has largely stabilized. More than 7 percent of the submarkets in Greater Phoenix have vacancy rates that have posted year-over-year vacancy changes of less than 1 basis points. These largely stable conditions are indications of the healthy supply-demand balance throughout much of the Greater Phoenix market. Rate 1.% 9.5% 9.% 8.5% 8.% 7.5% 7.% 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 3Q 2 Multifamily Colliers International
: > > With vacancy low, rents are pushing higher. Average asking rents have spiked 7 percent in the past year to $928 per month. Thus far in 2, asking rents have advanced by more than 6 percent, with an additional increase forecast for the fourth quarter. > > Rent growth has been consistent across property classes. Asking rents in Class A buildings have increased by 7 percent in the past year, reaching $1,35 per month, while Class B asking rents have gained 7.1 percent year over year to $87 per month. > > Some of the strongest recent rent gains have been occurring in the North Central and Northwest Phoenix areas of the market. Annual rent gains in the Metrocenter, Union Hills/Cave Creek and NW Black Canyon submarkets have all outpaced the growth for Greater Phoenix as a whole. Investment Trends: > > Following a surge in the second quarter, sales velocity slowed by more than 2 percent in the third quarter. Through the first nine months of this year, sales velocity is up more than 25 percent from the same period in 2. > > After topping $16, per unit in the first half of this year, the median price dipped to $97,8 per unit in the third quarter as more Class B and Class C properties changed hands. The median price year to date is $13,9 per unit, up more than 3 percent from the 2 median price. > > Cap rates inched higher in the third quarter, averaging 5.75 percent, up from 5.5 percent in the first half of 2. On the whole, cap rates have been quite steady, averaging between 5.5 percent and 6 percent since 2. Quarterly Rent Trends Asking Rent per Month $95 $9 $85 $8 $75 $7 Investment Trends Median Price per Unit (s) $ $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Per Month Per SF 6 7 8 9 1 11 YTD Price per Unit Cap Rate $1.11 $1.6 $1.1 $.96 $.91 $.86 1% 9% 7% 5% Asking Rent per SF Average Cap Rate Recent Transactions in the Market MULTIFAMILY SALES ACTIVITY Property Name Street Address Units Sales Price Price per Unit Crescent Scottsdale Quarter 345 N Scottsdale Rd., Scottsdale 275 $87,, $3,363 Almeria at Ocotillo 2471 W Edgewater Way, Chandler 389 $79,784, $25,1 La Privada at Scottsdale Ranch 55 E Via Linda, Scottsdale 35 $64,, $182,857 Solara at Mill Avenue 373 S Mill Ave., Tempe 5 $47,5, $92,233 Arcadia Walk 266 N 44th St., Phoenix 8 $,66, $92,297 4 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 3Q 2 Multifamily Colliers International
Outlook: The Greater Phoenix multifamily market is forecast to remain strong in the coming quarters. After a period of more than six years of improvements, the local vacancy rate will likely level off in the sub-6 percent range for the next -18 months, as new construction and renter demand for units are very closely aligned. Development of new apartments will continue through 217 and into 218, and additional job growth and population growth should provide sufficient demand to fill new units. While the supply of apartments is growing, new single-family home construction remains limited, and fewer renters are transitioning into homeownership. With vacancies low and demand strong, rents should continue to push higher. Employment Forecast The investment market is likely to remain active well into 2. Property fundamentals are very strong, and renter demand drivers will be sufficient to continue to strengthen financial performance. The market has proved capable of remaining on an upswing even as a wave of new units have moved through the development pipeline over the past 36 months. This has fueled strengthening investor sentiment. The financing climate remains attractive, with rates low and a deep pool of lenders still offering attractive, competitive terms. This combination of heightened investor demand, ongoing strengthening of property performance and available financing will continue to support the multifamily investment market. Rent Forecast 8, 4.5% $1, 1% Net Employment Change 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5% Year-over-Year Change Average Asking Rent $95 $9 $85 $8 $75 % Year-over-Year Rent Change 21 211 2 2 2 2 2* Jobs Gained/Lost Annual Change.% $7 21 211 2 2 2 2 2* Asking Annual Change - Construction and Permitting Forecast Forecast Permits/Units 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Rate 1 1% 1, 21 211 2 2 2 2 2* MF Permits Completions % 21 211 2 2 2 2 2* FOR MORE INFORMATION Bob Mulhern Senior Managing Director Greater Phoenix +1 62 222 538 Bob.Mulhern@colliers.com Jim Keeley SIOR Founding Partner Scottsdale Office +1 48 655 33 Jim.Keeley@colliers.com Pete O Neil Research Director Greater Phoenix +1 62 222 529 Pete.ONeil@colliers.com Copyright 2 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Phoenix 239 E. Camelback Road, Suite 1 Phoenix, AZ 85 +1 62 222 5 colliers.com/greaterphoenix 5 North American Research & Forecast Report Q4 2 Office Market Outlook Colliers International