US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity December 7, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Households: Real Estate & Existing Home Prices 3-5 Household Real Estate 6-7 December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
.8 2.8 15.8 1.8 US Households: Real Estate & Existing Home Prices Figure 1. HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES* (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Household Real Estate* Owners Equity** Home Mortgages.8 2.8 15.8 1.8 5.8 5.8.8 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.8 * Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as second homes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land. ** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. 7 65 Figure 2. HOUSEHOLD MORTGAGE DEBT (as a percent of value of household real estate*) 7 65 6 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * Home mortgages plus owners equity in household real estate. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 3 / December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
76 74 US Households: Real Estate & Existing Home Prices Figure 3. US HOUSEHOLDS: HOME MORTGAGE DEBT* (as a percent of total liabilities) 76 74 72 72 7 7 68 68 66 64 66 64 62 62 6 6 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 58 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. Figure 4. 14 REAL ESTATE 12 (trillion dollars, nsa) 1 8 6 4 2 Owners Equity in Household Real Estate (14.1) Home Mortgages* (1.) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 85 OWNERS EQUITY 8 (as a percent of household real estate) 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 4 / December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
3 US Households: Real Estate & Existing Home Prices Figure 5. HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE & MEDIAN EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE Oct Median Existing Single-Family Home Price (thousand dollars, 12-month average) 2 2 Real Estate Held by Households (trillion dollars) 15 15 1 1 5 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and National Association of Realtors. 5 2 Figure 6. HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE & MEDIAN EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE 2 15 15 1 1 5 Oct 5-5 Real Estate Held by Households (yearly percent change) -5-1 -15 Median Existing Single-Family Home Price (yearly percent change in 12-month average) -1-15 -2 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and National Association of Realtors. -2 Page 5 / December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
3.2 Figure 7. Household Real Estate MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE 3.2 3. 3. 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income 2.4 2.2 2. 2. 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1. As a ratio of disposable personal income 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 1. 1.2 Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.5 1.4 Figure 8. HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING* 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1..9.8 As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income 1..9.8.7.7.6.6.5.4.3 As a ratio of disposable personal income 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2.3.5.4 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 6 / December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
4 Figure 9. Household Real Estate REAL ESTATE HELD BY HOUSEHOLDS & OWNERS EQUITY IN HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE (yearly percent change) 4 2 2-2 Real Estate Held by Households Owners Equity in Household Real Estate -2-4 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. -4 4 Figure 1. REAL ESTATE HELD BY HOUSEHOLDS & OWNERS EQUITY IN HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE (yearly change, billion dollars) 4 2 2-2 Real Estate Held by Households Owners Equity in Household Real Estate -2-4 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. -4 Page 7 / December 7, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Homeowners Equity www.
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