Seattle Market Review Q2 Seattle real estate statistics for the second quarter of 2017
Q2 2017 Q2 Overview I t was another month of record-setting home prices in June as the area yet again took the prize for the hottest real estate market in the country. In a bright spot for Buyers, the number of new listings added in June was the highest total for any single month since May 2008. While inventory is still low, the pace of sales is slowing and the number of multiple offers are down, suggesting that we may soon see a slight reprieve from the last year of rapid-fire growth.. The median price of a single-family home in the Seattle area increased 13 percent from a year ago to a new record high of $750,000. Despite that increase, multiple offers- while down- are still common. With most Buyers presenting offers on multiple properties before purchasing a home, working with a broker to create a strong strategic plan, clear negotiating parameters, and a streamlined offer are critical for success. 2
Table of Contents Q2 715 2017 Seattle Housing Market...4 All of Seattle...5 Area 140...6 7 705 Area 380... 8 9 710 Area 390...12 13 700 701 140 Area 385...10 11 Area 700...14 15 Area 701...16 17 390 385 Area 705...18 19 380 Area 710... 20 21 Area 715... 22 23 Area 720... 24 25 Seattle Area Market Share...26 Why Windermere...27 29 [ Click on area to jump to that page ] 3
What s in Store for the 2017 Seattle Housing Market? By Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 2016 was another stellar year for the Seattle housing market, in which a surplus of buyers and a deficit of sellers drove home prices higher across the board. So, can we expect to see more of the same in 2017? Here are some of my thoughts on the Seattle/King County housing market for the coming year: 1 Our market has benefited greatly from very healthy job growth, driven in no small part by our thriving technology companies. Economic vitality is the backbone of housing demand, so we should continue to see healthy employment growth in 2017; however, not quite as robust as 2016. Migration to Seattle from other states will also continue in the coming year, putting further pressure on our housing market. 2 Are we building too many apartments? The answer to this question is maybe. I believe we are fast approaching oversupply of apartments; however, this glut will only be seen in select sub-markets, such as South Lake Union and Capitol Hill. Developers have been adding apartments downtown at frantic rates with many projects garnering very impressive rents. In the coming year, look for rental rate growth to slow and for concessions to come back into play as we add several thousand more apartments to downtown Seattle. 3 The Millennials are here! And they are ready to buy. 2016 saw a significant increase in the number of Millennial buyers in Seattle, and I expect to see even more in 2017. The only problem will be whether Millennials will be able to find or afford anything to buy. 4 Home prices will continue to rise. But price growth will taper somewhat. The market has been on a tear since bottoming out in 2012, with median home prices up by a remarkable 79% from the 2012 low, and 14% above the pre-recession peak seen in 2007. Given the fact that interest rates are now likely to rise at a faster rate than previously forecasted, I believe price appreciation will slow somewhat, but values will still increase at rates that are well above the national. Look for home prices to increase by an of 7.5 8.5% in 2017. 5 More homes for sale? I am optimistic that inventory levels around Seattle will increase, but it still won t be enough to meet continued high demand. 6 This is my biggest concern for the Seattle housing market. Home prices specifically in areas with ready access to our job centers are pulling way ahead of incomes, placing them out of reach for much of our population. This forces many buyers to move farther away from our job centers, putting additional stress on our limited infrastructure. We need to have an open discussion regarding zoning, as well as whether our state s Growth Management Act is helping or hindering matters. 7 New Home Starts/Sales. As much as I would love to say that we can expect a substantial increase in new homes in 2017, I am afraid this is not the case. Historically high land prices, combined with ever increasing construction and labor costs, slow housing development, as the price of the end product is increasingly expensive. This applies to single family development as well as condominiums. We should see a couple of towers break ground in 2017, but that s about all. Vertical construction is still prohibitively expensive and developers are concerned that there will not be sufficient demand for such an expensive end product. 8 Are we setting ourselves up for another housing crash? The simple answer to this question is no. While home price appreciation remains above the long-term, and will continue to be so in 2017, credit requirements, down payments, and a growing economy will all act as protectors from a housing crash in Seattle. 4 This blog originally appeared on Windermere Seattle Spaces and Places.
Seattle (all areas) Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE (includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE Q2 2017 OVERVIEW 700 715 705 710 852 848 390 701 699 140 385 380 2.0 0.6 0.6 2015 2016 10 year 2015 2016 10 year Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $750,000 $666,500 $575,000 $499,000 $419,600 $402,500 $410,000 $382,500 $425,000 $458,000-4% +2% -7% +11% +8% +9% +15% +16% +13% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 5
140 Admiral, Alki, Arbor Heights, Belvidere, Delridge, Fauntleroy, Gatewood, Genessee, High Point, Marine View, Seaview, South Park, West Seattle, Westwood, White Center High Price Listing Admiral 1926 41st Ave SW $1,538,000 4 Bed / 31/2 Bath / 3,030 SQFT MLS #: 1132298 Lot Size: 5,400 sqft Year Built: 2014 Style: 2 Story Views: City, Mountain, Sound, Territorial Medium Price Listing Gatewood 8307 37th Ave SW $637,000 3 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,700 SQFT MLS #: 1128693 Lot Size: 4,403 sqft Year Built: 1950 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: None Low Price Listing 6 Arbor Heights 10258 35th Ave SW $389,950 2 Bed / 1 Bath / 1,220 SQFT MLS #: 1121428 Lot Size: 5,775 sqft Year Built: 1948 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: Mountain, Territorial
Q2 2017 140 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 195 197 701 390 2.4 143 140 385 380 0.6 0.6 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $629,950 $541,000 $459,950 $415,000 $332,475 $356,500 $312,000 $349,500 $375,000 $400,000-20% +7% -12% +12% +7% +7% +15% +18% +16% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 7
380 Brighton, Columbia City, Genesee, Hillman City, Judkins, Lakewood, Leschi, Mt Baker, Rainier Beach, Rainier Valley, Seward Park, Skyway High Price Listing Mt Baker 3204 36th Ave S $1,550,000 4 Bed / 31/4 Bath / 3,495 SQFT MLS #: 1130726 Lot Size: 4,080 sqft Year Built: 2017 Style: Multi Level Views: Territorial Medium Price Listing Columbia City 3924 S Ferdinand St $712,000 3 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,660 SQFT MLS #: 1125743 Lot Size: 4,950 sqft Year Built: 1920 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: City, Territorial Low Price Listing 8 Upper Rainier Beach 10308 55th Ave S $506,500 4 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,760 SQFT MLS #: 1126015 Lot Size: 10,488 sqft Year Built: 1952 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: Territorial
Q2 2017 380 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 91 700 705 710 2.7 80 66 390 701 140 385 380 0.7 0.8 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $630,000 $514,000 $400,650 $380,000 $348,450 $309,475 $305,000 $323,750 $433,000 $415,000-5% -8% -11% -1% +6% +34% -4% +24% +23% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 9
385 Beacon Hill, Columbia City, Dunlap, Georgetown, Jefferson Park, North Beacon Hill, Sodo High Price Listing Columbia City 2812 S Adams St $820,000 5 Bed / 3.5 Bath / 2,530 SQFT MLS #: 1123806 Lot Size: 4,573 sqft Year Built: 2006 Style: 2 Story Views: Territorial Medium Price Listing Beacon Hill 4010 13th Ave S $620,000 3 Bed / 1 Bath / 2,840 SQFT MLS #: 1111517 Lot Size: 4,800 SQFT Year Built: 1941 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: Territorial Low Price Listing 0 Beacon Hill 6926 30th Ave S $475,000 3 Bed / 21/4 Bath / 1,800 SQFT MLS #: 1140230 Lot Size: 2,516 sqft Year Built: 2001 Style: 1 Story Views: Territorial
Q2 2017 385 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 390 701 140 385 380 2.3 44 38 33 0.5 0.7 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $602,500 $453,944 $475,500 $367,000 $301,250 $325,000 $280,000 $261,500 $309,950 $337,475-18% +8% -14% -7% +19% +9% +35% +5% +27% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 11
390 Arboretum, Beacon Hill, Broadmoor, Broadway, Capitol Hill, Central Area, Denny Blaine, Eastlake, First Hill, International District, Leschi, Madison Park, Madison Valley, Madrona, Montlake, Roanoke Park, Washington Park High Price Listing Capitol Hill 716 16th Ave E $2,550,000 5 Bed / 23/4 Bath / 4,549 SQFT MLS #: 1115471 Lot Size: 5,760 sqft Year Built: 1902 Style: Multi Level Views: None Medium Price Listing Montlake 2836 Harvard Ave E $1,025,000 7 Bed / 2 1/2 Bath / 4,120 SQFT MLS #: 1115331 Lot Size: 5,500 sqft Year Built: 1907 Style: 2 Stories with Basement Views: None Low Price Listing 2 Leschi 3445 E Spruce St $633,550 1 Bed / 1 Bath / 1,440 SQFT MLS #: 1129224 Lot Size: 4,146 sqft Year Built: 1948 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: None
Q2 2017 390 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 2.7 90 92 83 390 701 140 385 380 0.9 0.9 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $784,500 $890,000 $645,000 $660,000 $687,500 $594,975 $526,000 $490,000 $486,750 $540,000-7% -1% +11% +10% +8% +2% +4% +14% +13% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 13
700 Eastlake, Interbay, Lake Union, Magnolia, Queen Anne, Westlake High Price Listing Magnolia 4520 W Armour St $2,058,000 5 Bed / 3 Bath / 4,270 SQFT MLS #: 1070047 Lot Size: 8,775 sqft Year Built: 1937 Style: 2 Stories with Basement Views: Bay, Mountain, Sound Medium Price Listing Queen Anne 3228 Conkling Place W $1,100,000 2 Bed / 21/4 Bath / 2,100 SQFT MLS #: 1137481 Lot Size: 6,120 sqft Year Built: 1930 Style: 11/2 Stories with Basement Views: Mountain, Territorial Low Price Listing 4 Magnolia 3117 W Thurman St $783,000 3 Bed / 2 Bath / 1,650 SQFT MLS #: 1113608 Lot Size: 3,172 sqft Year Built: 1950 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: Sound, Territorial
Q2 2017 700 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 86 78 705 700 701 710 390 2.6 64 140 385 380 1.1 0.8 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $958,000 $1,001,779 $850,000 $775,000 $697,500 $580,000 $661,000 $596,000 $625,000 $633,443-17% +14% -10% +5% +1% +22% +10% +13% +5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 15
6 701 CONDOMINIUMS ONLY Belltown, Denny Triangle, Downtown, International District, Pioneer Square, Safeco Field High Price Listing Downtown 1920 4th Ave #1002 $1,359,000 2 Bed / 2 Bath / 1,607 SQFT MLS #: 1112320 Year Built: 2010 Style: 1 level Condo Views: City, Sound, Territorial Medium Price Listing Belltown 2720 3rd Ave #313 $911,000 1 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,309 SQFT MLS #: 1128222 Year Built: 2008 Style: 1 level Condo Views: City, Territorial Low Price Listing Downtown 98 Union St #208 $480,000 1 Bed / 1 Bath / 690 SQFT MLS #: 1120745 Year Built: 1985 Style: 1 level Condo Views: Bay, City, Partial
Q2 2017 701 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > MARCH 700 705 710 3.8 701 390 160 140 385 380 1.2 1.1 55 62 2015 2016 10 year 2015 2016 10 year Median Closed Sales Price > MARCH $570,200 $615,000 $489,000 $449,450 $432,000 $405,000 $394,500 $456,000 $355,000 $350,000-8% -21% -1% +23% -6% -3% +16% +25% +8% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All figures are based on condominiums. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale condominium residences sold. 17
705 Ballard, Bitter Lake, Blue Ridge, Broadview, Crown Hill, Fremont, Green Lake, Greenwood, Haller Lake, Loyal Heights, North Beach, Northgate, Olympic Manor, Phinney Ridge, Sunset Hill, Wallingford, Whittier High Price Listing Ballard 7055 Alonzo Ave NW $1,600,000 5 Bed / 31/2 Bath / 3,770 SQFT MLS #: 1135673 Lot Size: 5,000 sqft Year Built: 2017 Style: 2 Stories with Basement Views: City, Territorial Medium Price Listing Ballard 6540 Cleopatra Place NW $808,500 3 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,420 SQFT MLS #: 1120686 Lot Size: 4,000 sqft Year Built: 1910 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: None Low Price Listing 8 Bitter Lake 12508 North Park Ave N $532,000 3 Bed / 1 Bath / 1,700 SQFT MLS #: 1125062 Lot Size: 6,607 sqft Year Built: 1948 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: None
Q2 2017 705 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 214 225 192 705 700 701 710 390 1.5 140 385 380 0.4 0.3 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $769,500 $683,000 $600,000 $508,500 $465,000 $399,000 $420,000 $380,000 $449,950 $451,350-14% +5% -10% +18% 0% +13% +18% +14% +13% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 19
710 Bryant, Cedar Park, Hawthorn Hills, Inverness, Jackson Park, Lake City, Laurelhurst, Maple Leaf, Mathews Beach, Northgate, Olympic Hills, Pinehurst, Ravenna, Roosevelt, Sand Point, U District, View Ridge, Wedgwood, Windermere High Price Listing Laurelhurst 5119 NE 42nd St $1,875,000 5 Bed / 31/4 Bath / 3,380 SQFT MLS #: 1118421 Lot Size: 7,875 sqft Year Built: 1947 Style: 2 Stories with Basement Views: Lake, Mountain, Territorial Medium Price Listing Matthews Beach 11335 Durland Place NE $960,000 4 Bed / 2 Bath / 3,105 SQFT MLS #: 1139551 Lot Size: 9,000 sqft Year Built: 1955 Style: Split Entry Views: Lake, Mountain, Territorial Low Price Listing 20 Olympic Hills 3021 NE 135th St $580,000 4 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 2,640 SQFT MLS #: 1119321 Lot Size: 9,947 sqft Year Built: 1926 Style: 11/2 Stories with Basement Views: None
Q2 2017 710 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 701 390 1.5 143 127 119 140 385 380 0.5 0.5 $806,000 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $707,000 $565,000 $523,500 $421,250 $430,000 $404,000 $482,000 $465,500 $522,000-20% +2% -6% +19% -3% +12% +8% +25% +14% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 21
715 Echo Lake, Firlands, Hamlin Park, Hillwood, Innis Arden, Meridian Park, Richmond Beach, Richmond Highlands, Shoreline, The Highlands, Westminster High Price Listing Richmond Beach 19105 Richmond Beach Dr NW $1,660,000 4 Bed / 31/2 Bath / 3,620 SQFT MLS #: 1133724 Lot Size: 7,576 sqft Year Built: 1925 Style: 2 Stories with Basement Views: Mountain, Sound School District: Shoreline Medium Price Listing Richmond Beach 20240 Richmond Beach Dr NW $951,000 4 Bed / 31/4 Bath / 3,300 SQFT MLS #: 1134918 Lot Size: 8,056 sqft Year Built: 1979 Style: 1 Story with Basement Views: Mountain, Sound School District: Shoreline Low Price Listing 22 Shoreline 14817 Ashworth Ave N $466,700 2 Bed / 1 Bath / 870 SQFT MLS #: 1123145 Lot Size: 8,160 sqft Year Built: 1950 Style: 1 Story Views: None School District: Shoreline
Q2 2017 715 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 2.7 390 701 140 385 380 42 41 38 0.8 1.0 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $601,951 $513,750 $418,000 $378,500 $365,000 $364,500 $354,975 $387,500 $458,000 $301,975-9% -4% -17% +21% -3% +9% +18% +12% +17% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 23
720 Lake Forest Park, Shoreline High Price Listing Lake Forest Park 5226 NE 180th St $1,149,000 3 Bed / 31/2 Bath / 3,440 SQFT MLS #: 1113766 Lot Size: 20,000 sqft Year Built: 2008 Style: 2 Stories Views: Lake, Mountain, Partial School District: Shoreline Medium Price Listing Lake Forest Park 19724 30th Ave NE $720,000 4 Bed / 21/2 Bath / 2,480 SQFT MLS #: 1118338 Lot Size: 6,031 sqft Year Built: 2001 Style: 2 Story Views: None School District: Shoreline Low Price Listing 24 Shoreline 19055 14th Ct NE $424,001 2 Bed / 13/4 Bath / 1,160 SQFT MLS #: 1125673 Lot Size: 1,101 sqft Year Built: 2006 Style: Townhouse Views: Territorial School District: Shoreline
Q2 2017 720 715 Months Supply of Inventory > JUNE(includes pending sales) less than 3 months = seller s market 3-6 months = balanced market more than 6 months = buyer s market Closed Sales > JUNE 700 705 710 701 390 2.5 47 49 43 140 385 380 0.5 0.6 Median Closed Sales Price > JUNE $586,500 $438,000 $469,950 $510,000 $371,225 $383,000 $342,950 $308,750 $340,000 $368,250 +3% -10% -10% +10% +29% -16% +28% +9% +15% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All figures are based on single family home sales, which include townhomes and exclude condos. Graphs were created by Windermere Real Estate using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences sold. 25
Market Share by Company 2016 Seattle > by volume Areas 140, 380, 385, 390, 700, 701, 705 and 710. Windermere 37% 35% Coldwell Banker 9% 11% RE/MAX John L. Scott Keller Williams Redfin Corp Berkshire Hathaway Lake & Company Sotheby s International Realty 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Representing Sellers Representing Buyers 26 Graphs were created by Windermere using NWMLS data, but information was not verified or published by NWMLS. Data reflects all new and resale single-family residences and condominiums sold from 1/1/2016 12/31/2016 in areas 140, 380, 385, 390, 700, 701, 705 and 710.
Why Windermere The Sign in Your Yard Matters A recent study shows that NWMLS brokers in King County are more confident working with Windermere brokers than any other brand. Percent of respondents indicating they were completely confident or confident in doing a transaction. Windermere 81% Coldwell Banker 71% John L. Scott 64% RE/MAX 54% Sotheby s International Realty Keller Williams 45% 48% Lake & Company 43% Berkshire Hathaway 34% Gerrard Beattie & Knapp 27% Redfin 16% The Cascade Team The Force Real Estate RSVP Real Estate 9% 9% 9% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% The study was conducted by a third party in 2015 and included brokers who closed six or more transactions in the previous year. 27
Multiple offers? Your broker can make or break your deal. 53% of home sales involve multiple offers.* Buyers working with a Windermere broker are 15% more likely to be the selected buyer in multiple offers.* Success in multiple offers* Change in buyer market share in multiple offers vs. non-multiple offers. TOP TEN FIRMS CHOSEN BY BUYERS Windermere 3% Skyline Properties Redfin Keller Williams RE/MAX The Force Realty Coldwell Banker Berkshire Hathaway Sotheby s John L. Scott 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -1.4% Why Windermere brokers are most successful: Windermere brokers help position their buyer s offer to have the greatest appeal to the seller. Windermere brokers receive extensive training on how to create the most competitive offer and negotiate successfully in a multiple offer situation.. Brokers are more confident in completing a transaction with a broker from Windermere than they are with any other real estate company.** 28 *Multiple offers estimated at listings that sold above list price. Based on single family home sales in King County in 2016. New construction, condominiums and short sales were excluded. **Based on a 2015 independent studxy of NWMLS brokers who closed six or more transactions in the previous year.
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