United States Housing Market and Hardwoods The Future of the Hardwood Lumber Industry Wood Education Resource Center Princeton, WV November 3, 2016 Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI Northern Research Station-01 Princeton, WV USDA Forest Service 304.431.2734 dalderman@fs.fed.us
United States Housing Market and Hardwoods Where we re at Demographics GDP projections Summary Outline
Never make predictions, especially about the future. The late, great Casey Stengel and It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. The late, great Yogi Berra
Housing Units and Starts 1880 to September 2016 in thousands 1946: US population: 141.4 mm 2016: US population: 324.1 mm Source: US Census & DOC-Construction
September 2016 Housing Stock & Age 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 Total: 132,741,033 units 97% of houses built: 2009 and earlier 20,924,027 19,541,438 18,890,642 18,363,586 14.5% 14.0% 13.6% 15.5% 14,547,538 14,182,503 10.8% 10.5% 13.0% 17,484,363 10,000,000 6,865,918 5,000,000 0.5% 2.5% 3,349,216 5.1% 644,434 0 Built 2014 or later Built 2010 to 2013 Built 2000 to 2009 Built 1990 to 1999 Built 1980 to 1989 Built 1970 to 1979 Built 1960 to 1969 Built 1950 to 1959 Built 1940 to 1949 Built 1939 or earlier Houses Percent Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/; 10/31/16
NAHB - Housing's USD Percentage Contribution to GDP 25.0 20.0 in percent 19.3 Q2 2016 US GDP: $18.6 trillion 15.0 14.1 15.7 12.2 10.0 5.0 6.1 Q2 2016: $652.8 billion 3.5 0.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1 2016Q2 Residential Fixed Investment Housing Services Residential Fixed Investment + Housing services Source: https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/housings-contribution-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp.aspx; 10/31/16
September 2016 Total Housing Starts 2,250 2,000 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 Total starts 57-year average: 1,443 mm units SF starts 57-year average: 1,025 mm units MF starts 52-year average: 420 m units 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 1,000 750 750 500 500 250 250 0 0 Total Starts SF Starts 2-4 MF Starts 5 MF Starts Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 10/19/16
New SF Housing Starts Civilian Non-Institutional Population 0.0140 0.0120 0.0100 1959-2006 average: 0.0066 0.0080 0.0060 0.0040 0.0020 0.0029 0.0000 Sources: http://www.census.gov/construction; 10/1916h; ttps://fred.stlouisfed.org; 10/31/16
September 2016 Total Housing Permits 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 SAAR; in thousands 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Total Permits SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits 5 MF Permits Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 10/19/16
Building permits by region: 2015 Total 1-unit 2-unit 3-4 units 5 units 1 South 572,779 378,203 5,864 4,625 184,087 2 West 277,235 160,707 3,702 4,357 108,469 3 Midwest 170,584 104,673 4,238 3,363 58,310 4 Northeast 161,984 52,415 3,178 2,750 103,641 United States 1,182,582 695,998 16,982 15,095 454,507 Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/pdf/2015statepiechart.pdf; 8/17/16
Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/pdf/2015statepiechart.pdf; 8/17/16
September 2016 Total New SF Housing Sales 1,400 SAAR; in thousands 1,200 1,000 800 1963-2015 average: 652,679 units 600 1963-2000 average: 633,895 units September 2016, 609,000 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan 2016 Total SF Sales Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr May 2016 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xls; 10/26/16
New SF Housing Sales Ratio of $400m: $400m 100.0% 90.0% 92.4% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 71.7% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 28.3% 20.0% 10.0% 7.6% 0.0% % of Sales: < $400m % of Sales: > $400 Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xls; 10/26/16
New SF Housing Sales:Civilian Non-Institutional Population 0.007 1963-2006 average: 0.0039 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0023 0.000 Sources: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xls; 10/26/16https://fred.stlouisfed.org; 10/31/16
Existing House Sales 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 U.S. NE MW S W Source: NAR http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/10/first-time-buyers-steer-existing-home-sales-higher-in-september; 10/20/16
Housing Inventory: Civilian Non-Institutional Population 140,000 1.88 135,000 1.86 1.84 130,000 1.82 125,000 1.80 1.78 120,000 1.76 115,000 1.74 U.S. Housing Inventory Ratio: Inventory to Noninstitutionalized Population Source: NAR http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/10/first-time-buyers-steer-existing-home-sales-higher-in-september; & https://fred.stlouisfed.org/; 10/20/16
63.5% Homeownership Rate Claws Back Up, But Wait... On the optimist s side, household formation whether it s from new renter or new owner households is good for both the housing market and the general economy, as some renters eventually become owners and new households drive demand for home-related goods and services. On the pessimist s side, there are headwinds for those that want to own a home but can t: prices and rents have outpaced incomes, credit standards are higher, and a high share of young households are still living with their parents. On the neutral side, the homeownership rate is not different from last year or last quarter when seasonally adjusted. 2 Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist, Trulia Sources: 1 http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf; 10/27/16 2 http://www.themreport.com/daily-dose/10-27-2016/homeownership-rate-claws-back-wait; 10/27/16
36.5% 63.5% Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/; 10/20/16
Percentage Change: Owner- vs. Renter-Occupied Housing 62.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 in percent 35.0 30.0 25.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 20.0 15.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 Since Q2 2000 59.6% of all household formations are/were renters. 10.0 5.0 52.0 0.0 Owner Occupied Housing Units (%) Renter Occupied Housing Units (%) Source: http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf/; 10/31/16
Demographics
Sources: NAR http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/10/first-time-buyers-steer-existing-home-sales-higher-in-september; & http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/report/20161012_why_are_experts_pessimistic.html; 10/12/16
Source: http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/report/20161012_why_are_experts_pessimistic.html; 10/12/16
Source: http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/report/20161012_why_are_experts_pessimistic.html; 10/12/16
Source: http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/report/20161012_why_are_experts_pessimistic.html; 10/12/16
Projected U.S. Households Source: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q4rappaport.pdf
Occupied U.S. Single-Family Housing Units Source: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q4rappaport.pdf
Occupied U.S. Multi-Family Housing Units Source: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q4rappaport.pdf
Projected U.S. Single-Family Starts Source: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q4rappaport.pdf
Projected U.S. Multi-Family Starts Source: http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q4rappaport.pdf
Annual U.S. single-family housing starts, along with 2012 baseline and 2010 RPA A1B and HFW scenario projections. a gradual rebound in singlefamily housing starts, reaching the logarithmic trend line by 2020: ± 1.1 million close to the long-run historical norm and within the range of current housing expectations but much lower than recent RPA scenarios with similar or higher population growth. Source: http://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/fplgtr/fpl_gtr219.pdf
At the current pace, 52 million Americans, or one in seven residents, will be foreign-born by 2025. The pent-up demand for households for young adults will radically reshape land-use policy, according to Williams. The report predicts that a staggering 86 percent more households will form between 2015 and 2025 than the previous decade. That translates into 13.7 million new homes and apartments being built to meet the demand. Patrick Sisson, Senior Reporter, Curbed Demographic Strategies for Real Estate John Burns Real Estate Consulting for the Urban Land Institute Source: http://www.curbed.com/2016/10/12/13255596/suburb-urban-planning-millennial-immigration-report-baby-boomer; 10/11/16
Millennial buyers are coming, and they re coming relatively soon. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist, CoreLogic Source: http://www.housingwire.com/articles/38432-housings-new-normal-low-interest-rates-shifting-demand-coming-waveof-new-homebuyers; 11/2/13
Among the 117 million households in 2015, 68% of those are white households, while 13% are Hispanic, 12% are black, and 7% are Asian or others. For the next 10 years referenced, 2015-2025, the household formation will shift to minorities, as 40% of the share of household growth during that time period will be from Hispanics, while 24% will come from whites, and 18% will come from each blacks and Asians. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist, CoreLogic Source: http://www.housingwire.com/articles/38432-housings-new-normal-low-interest-rates-shifting-demand-coming-waveof-new-homebuyers; 11/2/13
United States Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Economic Projections IMF 2.6 1.6 2.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer Run 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 World Bank 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.1 World Economies European Central Bank 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.7 IMF 3.2 3.1 3.4 World Bank 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20160921.htm; https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecbstaffprojections201609.en.pdf; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/; http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Summary Aggregate market has improved U.S Housing Beginner or starter home starts/sales lag below normal Demographic composition of house ownership is going to change U.S. cues to watch: Job creation & salaries and housing affordability Global cues to watch: Will the Eurozone economies continue to improve? Geopolitical tensions Some large banks appear to be in trouble; and Global debt companies, countries, and personal
United States Housing Market and Hardwoods Questions? Thank you Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI Northern Research Station-01 Princeton, WV USDA Forest Service 304.431.2734 dalderman@fs.fed.us
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