Welcome to the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks. October 18 th, 2012 Osage National Golf Resort

Welcome to the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 18 th, 2012 Osage National Golf Resort

Missouri s 4 th Congressional District Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler

The Housing Recovery of 2012 October 18,, 2012 Shaun White Vice President - RE/MAX, LLC

Light at the end of the Tunnel

Economy The Impact on Housing GDP Gross Domestic Product Consumer Confidence QE3 Interest Rates Unemployment

Economy The Impact on Housing 9.2% 9.0% Unemployment 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2%

What Just Happened? Historic Market No One Was Prepared Foreclosures Not Done Yet Inventory Up and Down Resetting Loans Finally over the Hump

What Just Happened?

Is This Recovery Real? Home Sales YoY Increases for 15 months Home Prices YoY Increases for 8 months Pending Sales Up 16 months in a row New Homes 103 markets improving Investors A new Breed Foreclosures Down 33% from 2011

Is This Recovery Real? 250,000 Foreclosures 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

What Are the Challenges? Cancelled Transactions Lending and Appraisals Lending 734 FICO and 19% Down Legislation / Regulation Fiscal Cliff Debt Relief Act of 2007 Dodd Frank: QM, QRM, 3% closing cap Inventory

12-Month Delinquency Rates

Months Supply of Inventory Highest Months Supply 1. New York 13.1 2. Philadelphia 10.5 3. Trenton 9.3 4. Birmingham 8.8 5. Milwaukee 8.1 6. New Orleans 7.9 7. Wilmington 7.6 8. Cleveland 7.5 9. Hartford 7.1 10. San Antonio 7.1 Lowest Months Supply 1. San Francisco 1.3 2. Los Angeles 1.7 3. Denver 2.6 4. Orlando 2.6 5. Washington 2.8 6. Detroit 3.0 7. San Diego 3.2 8. Seattle 3.2 9. Miami 3.3 10.Tampa 3.3 Source: RE/MAX National Housing Report-September 2012

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Recessions and Home Sales 8,000,000 7,000,000 Recession Years Non-Recession Years 4.6M 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Source: National Association of REALTORS

Where Are We Headed? Pending Sales Up 16 months in a row 2012 Existing Sales +9% to 4.64 million 2013 Existing Sales - +8% to 5.02 million 2012 New Sales = 375,000 2013 New Sales = 506,000 Prices Up 6-9% in 2012 22% over next 5 years Underwater homes surfacing House Hold Formation 1.12 million average

Thank you!

Health Care Reform Act Debriefing the 3.8% Tax What s True and What is Not True Mick Bednara,CPA

Real Estate at the Lake of the Ozarks Jeff Krantz, Co-Owner and Executive Vice President

Real Estate at The Lake The Declining Years Year Transactions Volume 2006 3636 $727,321,644 2007 3000 $641,516,862 2008 2047 $427,317,908 2009 1837 $353,094,195

The Road to Recovery What s Needed? Steadily increasing transaction numbers Decreasing Inventory Decreasing Foreclosures Increasing Values

Real Estate at The Lake Market Stabilizing Years Year Transactions Volume 2009 1840 $353,148,756 2010 1807 $327,959,770 2011 1859 $330,584,388 2012 1629 $284,346,785 (through 3 rd Qtr) 11% increase in transactions and 11% increase in volume over same period last year

Have you ever asked, or been asked? How s the Market? The most accurate way to answer this question is to dissect the markets within our market. Waterfront Residential Homes Off Water Residential Homes Condominiums

Residential Waterfront Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price $ per Sqft 2011 434 $129,415,478 $232,500 $100 2012 506 $139,485,372 $225,000 $101 (+14%) (+7%) (-4%) Waterfront Residential home sales represented 31% of the transactions and nearly 50% of the volume of the overall market in 2012. Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales 2011 41 $7,867,156 2012 34 $6,903,342 (-17%) (-12%)

Residential Off-Water Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price 2011 474 $46,582,621 $83,500 2012 517 $58,180,081 $96,000 (+8%) (+20%) (+13%) Off-Water home sales represented 32% of the transactions and 21% of the volume of the overall market in 2012. Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales 2011 183 $12,555,302 represented 39% of Off-Water sales in 2011 2012 159 $12,875,619 represented 31% of Off-Water sales in 2012 (-13%) (+2%)

Condominium/Townhome/Villa Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price 2011 391 $64,920,420 $150,500 2012 443 $70,004,433 $145,000 (+12%) (+7%) (-3.5%) Condo sales represented 27% of the transactions and 25% of the volume of the overall market in 2012. Condominium Foreclosure Sales 2011 32 $3,090,611 represented 39% of Off-Water sales in 2011 2012 38 $4,395,049 represented 31% of Off-Water sales in 2012 (+16%) (+30%)

Residential Home and Condominium Sales have accounted for 90% of sales in 2012. -The majority of these are second home type properties Other Sectors of our market are strong as well: - Farms Sales have increased by 35% over last year. - Waterfront Lot Sales are up 25% over last year.

Lake Market Summary Transactions are up 11% MLS New Listings are down 8.5% compared to last year. Accurate pricing = Sold Property Multiple offers are back! Values are in line to start increasing Foreclosures are down across the board This Presentation is Fun Again!!!!

Development Panel

Development Panel Cary Patterson: City Planner for Osage Beach

Jeff Gloss: Dierbergs Store Director

Gary Prewitt: Developer of Prewitt s Point and The Shoppe s at Eagles Landing

Development Panel Cary Patterson Jeff Gloss Gary Prewitt

Predictions for Real Estate At the Lake of the Ozarks

Our Speakers and Program Planners Vicky Hartzler U.S. Congresswoman Gary Pruitt, Jeff Gloss & Cary Patterson Shaun White, Mick Bednara, Jeff Krantz George Bogema & Carri Case

What we have learned about the Real Estate Market in 2012 In Most Parts of the Country Real Estate Sales have improved dramatically over Last Year. Time on the Market is being Reduced and Inventory is Shrinking. We are seeing that same trend at the Lake of the Ozarks..

Changing Market Condition 2006 2009 Declining Market

2010 2011 Market Stabilization

2012 Market Recovery

Nationally Vacation Home Sales Surged in 2011 & 2012 In 2011 Vacation Home Sales Totaled 11% of the market.

At the Lake of the Ozarks 2010 Lakefront Home Sales 387 2012 Lakefront Home Sales 506 Represents a 31% increase over 2010.

Condominiums, At the Lake of the Ozarks 2010 Condominium Sales 349 2012 Condominium Sales 443 Represents a 27% increase over 2010

What does this Mean for Next Year Second Home Buyers are more confident and will Continue to Take Advantage of Market Conditions. Mortgage Money at a Ridiculously Low Rate will Bolster Sales. 10% to 12% Increase in Lake Front and Condominium Properties Next Year.

Foreclosures at the Lake of the Ozarks Nationally Foreclosures are Down from Last Year 33%

Shadow Inventory Shadow Inventory represents the number of distressed properties in some form of foreclosure or held by banks Not Yet on the Market in the MLS. In July of 2012 there were 2.3 Million Properties considered Shadow Inventory. Many of these to come on the Market in 2013.

Short Sales & Mortgage Modifications Major Financial Institutions are doing a better Job with Short Sales & Mortgage Modifications. (By Better I Mean that it is still Lousy. It used to be Horrific.)

Foreclosure Predictions 2011 Foreclosures Represented 24% of all Real Estate Sales 2012 Foreclosures Represented 19% of all Real Estate Sales 2013 Foreclosures Declining to 12%-15%

There are Reasons to be Optimistic

Next Year at the Lake of the Ozarks We Will See Increasing Real Estate Sales for all Property Types in 2013. Inventory will Decline Slightly It will still be a Buyer s Market Foreclosures will Decline. The Big Boys will Fuel our Commercial Landscape.

2012 Will Be the Best Real Estate Market That we have had in the past 4 Years.

No Matter What the Market is, The Lake of the Ozarks is Still the Best Place to Live, Work and Play

Thank you for Attending the 5 th Annual Real Estate Symposium You Can Find All of the Presentations www.lakeretrends.com