ARKET 2016 QUARTER ONE REAL ESTATE INFORMATION for WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA REPORT beverly-hanks.com EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY BEVERLY-HANKS & ASSOCIATES, REALTORS The Choice is Black & White
ARKET 2016 QUARTER ONE REAL ESTATE INFORMATION for WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA REPORT Real estate markets are dependent upon a successful balancing act that is rarely achieved. Our regional markets are almost always in a state of flux as macroeconomic forces such as the global economy and mortgage rates interact with local variables like employment, in-migration from feeder markets, and consumer preferences. A healthy real estate market is one that s balanced between both buyers and sellers. - NEAL HANKS, JR., PRESIDENT During the housing recession there was almost a universal oversupply of homes for sale. Now in many of the low to moderate price ranges there s a severe supply shortage. The shortage is beginning to slow the sales pace for home buyers who struggle to find low-to-moderate priced homes. The shortage has been detected by our agents as instances of competitive offers become increasingly common and by proactively calculating the months of inventory for our buyers and sellers as they prepare to enter the market. Last month the online real estate portal, Trulia, cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that a scarcity of new construction is the main cause for increasing home prices and slowed sales. Instead, the study says, a yawning price gap between mid-level and premium homes that s shutting out many move-up buyers is the biggest obstacle to a more ample supply. Nationally, a large share of entry-level homes are off the market because they re owned by either investors or socalled underwater homeowners who effectively can t sell. While we don t believe that large-scale investors are responsible for the shortage in our region, we do believe changes in housing and neighborhood preferences are driving much of our shortage. Severe shortages exist in 36% of Buncombe County s price brackets. The shortage will be even more pronounced in specific neighborhood pockets like West and North Asheville. If you d like help understanding the market dynamics in your neighborhood, please contact your agent or our Customer Service department. We ll provide you with a current Real Estate Review for your neighborhood. There s no obligation when requesting a review. Simply request the review, and one of our agents will prepare and then drop it off for you. If you d prefer that an explanation accompany the review, our agents can assist in person or by phone. The explanations often take 15 minutes or less depending upon your questions. beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
THE REGION S VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 95% $ 210,000 3,763 13% 111 195 2015 Q1: 95% 2015 Q1: $192,250 2015 Q1:4,548 2015 Q1: 12% 2015 Q1: 159 2015 Q1: Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 211 $600,000-699,999 136-17% Year-Over-Year $100,000-199,999 715 $200,000-299,999 859 $300,000-399,999 619 $400,000-499,999 368 $500,000-599,999 254 $700,000-799,999 121 $800,000-899,999 75 $900,000-999,999 103 $1,000,000+ 302 TOTAL: 3,763 Source: North Carolina Mountains MLS PURPOSE OF PURCHASE Not Indicated: 46 Primary Residence: 204 2nd Home/Vacation: 30 Investment: 37 Lot/Acreage: 44 Commercial: 12 0 45 90 135 180 225 Source: Beverly-Hanks & Associates 2016 Q1 Closed Transactions BEVERLY-HANKS.COM WEB TRAFFIC SESSIONS 15,000 DAILY SESSIONS 12,000 9,000 2016 6,000 3,000 2015 0 1/1 2/15 3/31 In real estate we describe a market s degree of balance with the months of inventory metric. The metric is determined by calculating the number of homes selling each month and then dividing that number into the number of homes for sale. SOLD per month MONTHS OF INVENTORY We believe market balance is achieved between 6 and 12 months. If a market offers less than six months of inventory, home sellers will have an advantage. If inventory runs over 12, buyers will have the upper hand in negotiations. Each quarter we report on the months of inventory for each of the counties in our service footprint. This is a useful starting point but can never replace the value of calculating the months of inventory for a specific neighborhood and price point. Learn more about real estate market metrics at: http://www.beverly-hanks.com/blog/knowyour-terms-real-estate-market-metrics CONTENTS 2-3: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & 2016 FORECAST 4: MORTGAGE REVIEW 5: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 6-19: COUNTY MARKET REVIEWS 20-21: LOTS & ACREAGE REVIEW 22: NEW HOME COMMUNITIES 23: COMMERCIAL MARKET REVIEW 24: BEVERLY-HANKS MARKET SHARE 2016 1ST QUARTER 3
MORTGAGE VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MARCH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FEBRUARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MARCH DOW JONES INDEX MARCH 1ST MORTGAGE DEFAULT INDEX FEBRUARY 5.0% 237.111 91 17,685.84 2015: 5.5% 2015: 234.722 2015: 93 2015: 17,776 2015: 1.0 MORTGAGE OUTLOOK Since the beginning of the year, the cost of owning a home has dropped. Mortgage rates are so low that today s home buyers are paying close to 16% less interest on their loans each month. At today s rates, a Hendersonville home buyer borrowing at the local mortgage limit of $417,000 will pay $85 less per month as compared to 90 days ago. Freddie Mac believes this could be the best year for housing in a decade. Low mortgage rates, an improving labor market, and modest income gains are driving housing markets higher. Increasing home prices and solid job creation are being credited with further reducing mortgage delinquency. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association s National Delinquency Survey, the foreclosure starts rate decreased to 0.36% in Q4 of 2015, the lowest reading since 2003. Fannie Mae is forecasting 30-year fixed mortgage rates to average 3.7%. The Kiplinger Report predicts, rates will remain very low for much of the next month QUARTER 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Average of FNMA, FMAC, MBA, NAR MORTGAGE RATE PROJECTIONS 3.93% 4.08% 4.23% 4.33% before starting to climb as investors realize that odds favor a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. By the end of 2016, we see the 10-year Treasury bond rate at 2.4%, versus 1.8% now, and the 30-year mortgage rate at 4.2%. NMLS# 42020 HOUSEHOLD FINANCE TIP: REPAYING FEDERAL STUDENT LOANS It s difficult to read your favorite newsfeed without seeing mention of the difficulties college graduates are having repaying their collective $1.3 trillion in student debt. Many economists believe the colossal debt is a big reason why millennials have been slow to enter the housing market. If federal student loan debt is keeping you from entering the housing market here are a few things to know. CALL THE FEDERAL OMBUDSMAN FOR HELP. According to the U.S. Department of Ed., the ombudsman is a neutral, informal, and confidential resource to help resolve disputes. Disputes could include discrepancies about balances, issues related to default, or questions about postponement and forgiveness. EMPLOYERS ARE BEGINNING TO OFFER STUDENT REPAYMENT BENEFITS SIMILAR TO A 401K. In general, your employer agrees to pay a specific amount toward your student loans each year. This benefit is not yet tax-deductible, but at least one bill before Congress proposes the change. BORROWERS MAY BE ELIGIBLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN INCOME-DRIVEN REPAYMENT PLAN. These plans can seriously shrink your payments based on your income and family size. Decreasing your payment may not make sense for you in the long-term, but it s a nice option if you need it. If you have been unable to resolve a dispute with your federal student loan, ask the Federal Student Aid Ombudsman Group for help at http://goo.gl/qjfoq6. beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
GLOSSARY Active Days on Market (ADOM) is the average amount of time the current supply of homes has been on the market. When considered alongside Closed Days on Market (CDOM) the metric can help to describe if existing inventory matches buyer preferences and the general direction of the market. Closings by Price Bracket looks at the distribution of sales across the price brackets during the period. It is useful for quickly analyzing which price categories for properties are more commonly sold in a given geography. Closed Days on Market (CDOM) is the average amount of time it takes to market and close on a property. This is useful for monitoring whether a market is accelerating or decelerating. Distressed Sales tracks the percentage of sales over the last quarter that are either in foreclosure, short sale, or represent real estate owned by financial institutions. Home Supply represents the total number of properties of a certain type in a specific geography. Unless otherwise noted, this number includes all types of residential properties reported by the Multiple Listing Service. ($) are used to indicate whether a market is favoring buyers or sellers. Generally zero to six months of inventory indicate increasing sales prices, six to twelve months indicate a stable market, and if the market exceeds twelve months, prices are falling. List/Sell Ratio (L/S) compares the final sales price against the most recent list price prior to the property going under contract. The ratio can be used to compare buyers and sellers opinions of value. Median Sales Price is a means of tracking property where one-half of closed sales prices are higher and one-half lower. This statistic is less at risk of being influenced by properties on either extreme end of the pricing spectrum. Months of Inventory (MOI) is a calculation used by the real estate industry to describe the relationship of sales pace and the number of properties currently on the market if no additional homes were added to the supply. It is calculated by determining the number of homes sold per month and dividing by the total number of properties for sale on the last day of the month. It is susceptible to changes in supply and/or pace. Sales Pace/Days on Market tracks the average days on market for the county by the average number of properties selling per month. When the two metrics are considered together, the trend lines can indicate changes in the market. Trend lines opposite one another indicate a recovering/accelerating market, and lines moving closer indicate a slowing market. Sold Homes The ultimate snapshot, the number of closed transactions in each price bracket shows how communities are doing. Supply Pie Graph describes the number of individual properties on the market on a specific date in a given geography across each price range. beverly-hanks.com HOME Advanced Searches and detailed community information. MOBILE On the top right corner of your screen, click: NEARBY PROPERTIE S for prices and photos. Information throughout this report is derived from Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood, Madison, Rutherford, Polk, and Transylvania Counties real estate markets. Information is reported by the NC Mountains Multiple Listing Service and the Carolina Multiple Listing Service, which do not guarantee or are in any way responsible for accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market, and changes in MLS service providers may also influence the type of data and how data is gathered for a period of time after such a change. During 2015Q4, the region upgraded its multiple listing service. The new service collects and reports data differently than the old. Despite every effort being made, inconsistencies might distort comparisons with previous years. 2016 1ST QUARTER 5
UNCOMBE COUNTY INSIGHTS The market has become increasingly competitive for to a high water mark of almost $250,000. The increase buyers under $400,000. The combination of a 22% in median price reflects the redistribution of sales away decrease in the number of homes for sale and a 3% from homes under $200,000 towards moderate and increase in the number sold is granting sellers more higher price points. The number of sales over $1 Million sway in negotiations, particularly in the lower price doubled since 2015. points. The median sales price rose 17% since last year -22% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 36 $600,000-699,999 44 $100,000-199,999 147 $700,000-799,999 39 $200,000-299,999 218 $800,000-899,999 34 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 195 $400,000-499,999 119 $500,000-599,999 87 $900,000-999,999 39 $1,000,000+ 133 TOTAL: 1,091 SALES PACE SOLD 350 280 236 210 257 SOLD $0-99,999: 42 $100,000-199,999: 240 $200,000-299,999: 234 $300,000-399,999: 113 $400,000-499,999: 56 $500,000-599,999: 32 140 70 0 76 86 $600,000-699,999: 17 $700,000-799,999: 6 $800,000-899,999: 9 $900,000-999,999: 7 $1,000,000+: 14 2005 2010 2016 0 50 100 150 200 250 770 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
BUNCOMBE COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 96% $ 249,900 1,091 5% 86 147 2015 Q1: 96% 2015 Q1: $213,000 2015 Q1: 1,403 2015 Q1: 10% 2015 Q1: 132 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 42.0 q List/Sell Ratio 92% q $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 240.0 q List/Sell Ratio 97% vw $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 234.0 q List/Sell Ratio 97% p Days on Market (Active) 132 Days on Market (Closed) 56.4 q Months of Inventory 3 vw Days on Market (Active) 110 Days on Market (Active) 104 Days on Market (Closed) 67.1 q Days on Market (Closed) 80.0 q Months of Inventory 2 q1 Months of Inventory 3 q1 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 113.0 p List/Sell Ratio 97% vw $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 56.0 p List/Sell Ratio 95% q $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 32.0 p List/Sell Ratio 98% p Days on Market (Active) 140 Days on Market (Active) 144 Days on Market (Closed) 106.6 q Days on Market (Closed) 110.7 q Months of Inventory 5 q2 Months of Inventory 6 q1 Days on Market (Active) 155 Days on Market (Closed) 80.6 q Months of Inventory 8 q4 $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 17.0 p List/Sell Ratio 97% p Days on Market (Active) 148 Days on Market (Closed) 99.8 q Months of Inventory 8 q19 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 6.0 q List/Sell Ratio 94% q Days on Market (Active) 174 Days on Market (Closed) 124.3 q Months of Inventory 20 q3 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 9.0 p List/Sell Ratio 100% p Days on Market (Active) 155 Days on Market (Closed) 156.8 q Months of Inventory 11 q9 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 7.0 p List/Sell Ratio 88% q Days on Market (Active) 193 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 14.0 p List/Sell Ratio 91% q Days on Market (Active) 245 Days on Market (Closed) 135.5 q Days on Market (Closed) 250.6 q Months of Inventory 17 q32 Months of Inventory 29 q35 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 7
AYWOOD INSIGHTS The market continues to gain steam in Haywood County. The number of months of inventory has achieved balance between buyers and sellers for homes under $200,000. Without a fresh supply of homes for sale under $200,000, buyers may soon encounter a difficult COUNTY buying environment. Moderate priced homes are also selling more frequently. The uptick in sales gives hope to Haywood County sellers that demand is returning for these more expensive homes. Year-over-year sales increased by 50% for homes priced over $400,000. -20% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 61 $600,000-699,999 17 $100,000-199,999 180 $700,000-799,999 17 $200,000-299,999 185 $800,000-899,999 9 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 80 $400,000-499,999 54 $500,000-599,999 32 $900,000-999,999 12 $1,000,000+ 19 TOTAL: 666 SALES PACE SOLD 250 200 150 171 SOLD $0-99,999: 35 $100,000-199,999: 79 $200,000-299,999: 28 $300,000-399,999: 16 $400,000-499,999: 7 100 50 0 134 70 2005 2010 2016 58 $500,000-599,999: 3 $600,000-699,999: 1 $700,000-799,999: 1 $800,000-899,999: 2 $900,000-999,999: 0 $1,000,000+: 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 173 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
HAYWOOD COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 95% $ 172,500 666 8% 171 235 2015 Q1: 93% 2015 Q1: $157,000 2015 Q1: 830 2015 Q1: 20% 2015 Q1: 200 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 35.0 q List/Sell Ratio 90% q $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 79.0 p List/Sell Ratio 95% vw $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 28.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 94% vw Days on Market (Active) 195 Days on Market (Active) 210 Days on Market (Active) 253 Days on Market (Closed) 133.4 q Days on Market (Closed) 136.5 q Days on Market (Closed) 218.4 q Months of Inventory 5 q2 Months of Inventory 7 q4 Months of Inventory 20 q5 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 16.0 p List/Sell Ratio 96% p $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 7.0 p List/Sell Ratio 96% p $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 3.0 q List/Sell Ratio 93% q Days on Market (Active) 264 Days on Market (Active) 220 Days on Market (Active) 199 Days on Market (Closed) 211.0 p Days on Market (Closed) 315.6 q Days on Market (Closed) 394.3 p Months of Inventory 15 5 q Months of Inventory 23 8 q Months of Inventory 32 p16 $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 1.0 p List/Sell Ratio 89% Days on Market (Active) 298 Days on Market (Closed) 231.0 Months of Inventory 51 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 1.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 97% p Days on Market (Active) 327 Days on Market (Closed) 23.0 q Months of Inventory 51 q6 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 2.0 p List/Sell Ratio 92% Days on Market (Active) 157 Days on Market (Closed) 475.5 Months of Inventory 14 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 0 vw Days on Market (Active) 270 Days on Market (Closed) 0 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 1.0 p List/Sell Ratio 90% Days on Market (Active) 267 Days on Market (Closed) 101.0 Months of Inventory 57 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 9
ENDERSON INSIGHTS The sales pace of moderate- to luxury-priced homes is beginning to experience noticeable improvement. During the last 90 days, the number of sales over $1 Million achieved 55% of last year s total annual sales. If the pace continues, 2016 could be a turning point for the county s upper price points. The supply of homes COUNTY available for sale under $200,000 is down 31%. We believe the supply is insufficient for current demand and is contributing to reduced sales in these lower price points. Sales under $200,000 were down 15% when compared with last year. -18% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 26 $600,000-699,999 35 $100,000-199,999 125 $700,000-799,999 29 $200,000-299,999 162 $800,000-899,999 13 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 124 $400,000-499,999 69 $500,000-599,999 55 $900,000-999,999 16 $1,000,000+ 38 TOTAL: 692 SALES PACE SOLD 250 200 150 121 123 SOLD $0-99,999: 45 $100,000-199,999: 125 $200,000-299,999: 122 $300,000-399,999: 44 $400,000-499,999: 17 $500,000-599,999: 4 100 50 0 83 102 $600,000-699,999: 2 $700,000-799,999: 0 $800,000-899,999: 4 $900,000-999,999: 3 $1,000,000+: 5 2005 2010 2016 0 30 60 90 120 150 371 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
HENDERSON COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 95% $ 206,625 692 9% 102 149 2015 Q1: 96% 2015 Q1: $190,000 2015 Q1: 847 2015 Q1: 14% 2015 Q1: 147 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 45.0 q List/Sell Ratio 91% p $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 125.0 q List/Sell Ratio 96% q $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 122.0 p List/Sell Ratio 97% p Days on Market (Active) 105 Days on Market (Active) 88 Days on Market (Active) 126 Days on Market (Closed) 56.3 q Days on Market (Closed) 71.5 q Days on Market (Closed) 98.0 q Months of Inventory 2 q1 Months of Inventory 3 q1 Months of Inventory 4 q3 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 44.0 p List/Sell Ratio 96% q $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 17.0 p List/Sell Ratio 96% q $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 4.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 96% p Days on Market (Active) 158 Days on Market (Active) 162 Days on Market (Active) 158 Days on Market (Closed) 159.8 q Days on Market (Closed) 187.1 q Days on Market (Closed) 129.5 q Months of Inventory 8 q3 Months of Inventory 12 q6 Months of Inventory 41 p1 $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 2.0 p List/Sell Ratio 82% q Days on Market (Active) 171 Days on Market (Closed) 573.5 p Months of Inventory 53 q70 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 0.0 q Days on Market (Active) 318 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 4.0 p List/Sell Ratio 99% p Days on Market (Active) 312 Days on Market (Closed) 176.5 q Months of Inventory 10 12 q $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 3.0 p List/Sell Ratio 90% q Days on Market (Active) 140 Days on Market (Closed) 217.3 q Months of Inventory 16 q11 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 5.0 p List/Sell Ratio 87% q Days on Market (Active) 213 Days on Market (Closed) 335.8 p Months of Inventory 23 76 q LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 11
ADISON COUNTY INSIGHTS Up till now the county s recovery has been more lethargic months. The supply of homes for sale continues to offer than other counties in the region, but last quarter buyers more selection than in neighboring Buncombe home sales were up 15%. The increase was confined County. We suspect the sales pace will continue to to brackets under $300,000, which when coupled with improve as frustrated Buncombe County buyers look a reduced supply could spell balance in the coming further up I-26 for more less expensive options. -24% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 10 $600,000-699,999 9 $100,000-199,999 41 $700,000-799,999 2 $200,000-299,999 56 $800,000-899,999 3 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 34 $400,000-499,999 22 $500,000-599,999 13 $900,000-999,999 4 $1,000,000+ 6 TOTAL: 200 SALES PACE SOLD 300 250 200 150 135 100 148 SOLD $0-99,999: 4 $100,000-199,999: 16 $200,000-299,999: 9 $300,000-399,999: 8 $400,000-499,999: 1 $500,000-599,999: 0 $600,000-699,999: 0 $700,000-799,999: 0 50 0 13 13 $800,000-899,999: 0 $900,000-999,999: 0 $1,000,000+: 0 2005 2010 2015 0 4 8 12 16 20 38 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
MADISON COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 94% $ 214,000 200 8% 148 253 2015 Q1: 96% 2015 Q1: $160,000 2015 Q1:263 2015 Q1: 27% 2015 Q1: 206 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 4.0 q List/Sell Ratio 91% q $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 16.0 p List/Sell Ratio 93% q $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 9.0 p List/Sell Ratio 99% p Days on Market (Active) 155 Days on Market (Active) 174 Days on Market (Active) 266 Days on Market (Closed) 129.3 q Days on Market (Closed) 131.2 q Days on Market (Closed) 204.1 q Months of Inventory 8 p1 Months of Inventory 8 q3 Months of Inventory 19 q6 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 8.0 p List/Sell Ratio 88% q Days on Market (Active) 320 Days on Market (Closed) 125.4 p Months of Inventory 13 122 q $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 1.0 p List/Sell Ratio 95% Days on Market (Active) 214 Days on Market (Closed) 171.0 Months of Inventory 66 $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 0.0 q Days on Market (Active) 196 $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 243 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 1034 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 191 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 612 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 273 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 13
POLK COUNTY INSIGHTS Last quarter, sales jumped 69% and simultaneously year, the average marketing time for closed properties recorded the only increase in supply in the region. The dropped by more than 60 days. Desirable homes recently months of inventory for properties under $300,000 placed on the market are going under contract quickly, remains balanced between buyers and sellers. The and stale inventory is being passed over by experienced homes that are selling are selling more quickly. Since last buyers already familiar with the market. 9% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 12 $600,000-699,999 7 $100,000-199,999 44 $700,000-799,999 9 $200,000-299,999 44 $800,000-899,999 5 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 38 $400,000-499,999 30 $500,000-599,999 17 $900,000-999,999 3 $1,000,000+ 27 TOTAL: 236 SALES PACE SOLD 350 300 250 200 156 150 SOLD $0-99,999: 6 $100,000-199,999: 25 $200,000-299,999: 14 $300,000-399,999: 3 $400,000-499,999: 2 $500,000-599,999: 3 $600,000-699,999: 1 100 50 15 18 0 120 $700,000-799,999: 0 $800,000-899,999: 0 $900,000-999,999: 0 $1,000,000+: 0 2005 2010 2016 0 6 12 18 24 30 54 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
POLK COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 93% $ 181,000 236 9% 120 196 2015 Q1: 93% 2015 Q1: $177,500 2015 Q1: 217 2015 Q1: 9% 2015 Q1: 206 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 6.0 q List/Sell Ratio 85% p $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 25.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% vw $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 14.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% p Days on Market (Active) 119 Days on Market (Active) 150 Days on Market (Active) 203 Days on Market (Closed) 95.0 q Days on Market (Closed) 117.4 q Days on Market (Closed) 121.6 q Months of Inventory 6 p1 Months of Inventory 5 q4 Months of Inventory 9 60 q $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 3.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 93% p $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 2.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 89% q $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 3.0 p List/Sell Ratio 97% vw Days on Market (Active) 214 Days on Market (Active) 154 Days on Market (Closed) 109.3 q Days on Market (Closed) 189.5 q Months of Inventory 38 q3 Months of Inventory 45 p13 Days on Market (Active) 232 Days on Market (Closed) 124.7 q Months of Inventory 17 3 q $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 1.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 92% vw Days on Market (Active) 358 Days on Market (Closed) 183.0 p Months of Inventory 21 q18 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 240 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 188 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 218 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 0.0 q Days on Market (Active) 232 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 15
UTHERFORD COUNTY INSIGHTS Sales increased by 16%, and the number of homes At this time only 65% of the properties available for available for sale was down 7%. Both statistics bode well sale are found under that same $300,000 bar. The good for achieving a more balanced market in the coming news is that homes are selling almost two months more year. The improvement is not evenly balanced among quickly than this time last year. With Lake Lure s high the price brackets. 94% of the sales occurred under season just around the corner, we re optimistic about $300,000, leaving many higher-end sellers frustrated. the upcoming year. -7% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 41 $600,000-699,999 8 $100,000-199,999 93 $700,000-799,999 11 $200,000-299,999 83 $800,000-899,999 1 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 62 $400,000-499,999 27 $500,000-599,999 15 $900,000-999,999 5 $1,000,000+ 16 TOTAL: 362 SALES PACE SOLD 300 250 200 156 150 100 153 SOLD $0-99,999: 32 $100,000-199,999: 37 $200,000-299,999: 20 $300,000-399,999: 2 $400,000-499,999: 1 $500,000-599,999: 2 $600,000-699,999: 0 $700,000-799,999: 1 50 32 $800,000-899,999: 0 $900,000-999,999: 0 1 $1,000,000+: 0 0 2005 2010 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 95 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
RUTHERFORD COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 92% $ 142,500 362 15% 153 215 2015 Q1: 93% 2015 Q1: $146,250 2015 Q1: 391 2015 Q1:28% 2015 Q1: 183 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 32.0 q List/Sell Ratio 89% q $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 37.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% vw $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 20.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% vw Days on Market (Active) 168 Days on Market (Active) 191 Days on Market (Active) 218 Days on Market (Closed) 104.5 q Days on Market (Closed) 170.0 q Days on Market (Closed) 211.0 q Months of Inventory 4 q1 Months of Inventory 8 q3 Months of Inventory 12 q9 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 2.0 q List/Sell Ratio 96% p $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 1.0 q List/Sell Ratio 91% q $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 2.0 p List/Sell Ratio 92% Days on Market (Active) 226 Days on Market (Active) 223 Days on Market (Closed) 30.0 q Days on Market (Closed) 246.0 q Months of Inventory 93 p61 Months of Inventory 81 p63 Days on Market (Active) 160 Days on Market (Closed) 174.0 Months of Inventory 23 $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 0.0 q Days on Market (Active) 259 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 1.0 p List/Sell Ratio 92% Days on Market (Active) 361 Months of Inventory 33 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 261 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 331 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 285 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 17
RANSYLVANIA COUNTY INSIGHTS The county s real estate market has been slowly upper hand in negotiations. With overall supply down by improving since the recovery began back in 2011. Last 14%, it s possible the advantage will erode in 2016. The quarter, home sales reached the second highest level average marketing time for properties is down by 50%, since the last peak in 2006. The ample supply of homes adding more credence that the market is warming up. for sale in most price brackets still gives most buyers the -14% Number of Homes currently available in the price range: $0-99,999 25 $600,000-699,999 16 $100,000-199,999 85 $700,000-799,999 14 $200,000-299,999 111 $800,000-899,999 10 Year-Over-Year $300,000-399,999 86 $400,000-499,999 47 $500,000-599,999 35 $900,000-999,999 24 $1,000,000+ 63 TOTAL: 516 SALES PACE SOLD 300 240 180 156 120 165 SOLD $0-99,999: 15 $100,000-199,999: 34 $200,000-299,999: 32 $300,000-399,999: 11 $400,000-499,999: 5 $500,000-599,999: 3 $600,000-699,999: 1 $700,000-799,999: 1 60 0 33 35 $800,000-899,999: 1 $900,000-999,999: 0 $1,000,000+: 2 2005 2010 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 105 Homes Sold per Month Days on Market beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY VITAL SIGNS 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO MEDIAN SALES PRICE DISTRESSED SALES CLOSED ACTIVE 93% $ 212,500 516 10% 165 273 2015 Q1: 92% 2015 Q1: $196,000 2015 Q1: 597 2015 Q1: 10% 2015 Q1: 288 2015 Q1: $0-$99,999 Homes Sold 15.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 89% q $100,000-$199,999 Homes Sold 34.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 94% q $200,000-$299,999 Homes Sold 32.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% p Days on Market (Active) 233 Days on Market (Active) 230 Days on Market (Active) 247 Days on Market (Closed) 100.8 q Days on Market (Closed) 144.4 q Days on Market (Closed) 187.3 q Months of Inventory 5 p1 Months of Inventory 8 q4 Months of Inventory 10 q9 $300,000-$399,999 Homes Sold 11.0 p List/Sell Ratio 93% vw $400,000-$499,999 Homes Sold 5.0 p List/Sell Ratio 93% q $500,000-$599,999 Homes Sold 3.0 p List/Sell Ratio 94% p Days on Market (Active) 226 Days on Market (Active) 226 Days on Market (Active) 319 Days on Market (Closed) 211.0 q Days on Market (Closed) 157.4 q Days on Market (Closed) 104.7 q Months of Inventory 23 2 q Months of Inventory 28 q17 Months of Inventory 35 55 q $600,000-$699,999 Homes Sold 1.0 q List/Sell Ratio 96% p Days on Market (Active) 317 Days on Market (Closed) 131.0 q Months of Inventory 48 p18 $700,000-$799,999 Homes Sold 1.0 vw List/Sell Ratio 100% p Days on Market (Active) 402 Days on Market (Closed) 442.0 q Months of Inventory 42 q6 $800,000-$899,999 Homes Sold 1.0 q List/Sell Ratio 99% p Days on Market (Active) 203 Days on Market (Closed) 224.0 q Months of Inventory 30 p10 $900,000-$999,999 Homes Sold 0.0 Days on Market (Active) 303 $1,000,000+ Homes Sold 2.0 p List/Sell Ratio 92% p Days on Market (Active) 423 Days on Market (Closed) 349.5 q Months of Inventory 95 q52 LEGEND: Change from 2015 data INCREASE: p DECREASE: q NO CHANGE: vw WEAKENING TREND: pq AMOUNT OF CHANGE: pq X X INSUFFICIENT SALES DATA: 2016 1ST QUARTER 19
LOTS VITAL SIGNS 0-3 acre lots in subdivisions 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO AVERAGE LOT SALES PRICE PARCELS TOTAL ACRES SOLD DISTRESSED SALES 89% $ 75,284 3,821 174 4% 2015 Q1: 91% 2015 Q1: $78,411 2015 Q1: 3,942 2015 Q1: 143 2015 Q1: 10% INSIGHTS The good news is that lot sales are up (7%) and supply is down (3%). The bad news is that supply continues to far exceed the current demand. At the current pace, it would take almost six years to sell through the available supply of residential lots. Properties closer to Asheville and in well established subdivisions are selling better than those in the outskirts. Of the sales in quarter one, 49% were located in Buncombe County, but 75% of the lots available for sale are outside the county limits. The second most popular county was Henderson County. In outlying areas, buyers will have many lots from which to choose giving them an advantage when negotiating with sellers. Lot sales are expected to improve as the home supply shortages intensify. ACTIVE (1/1/2016) vs CLOSED (YE) LISTINGS CLOSED 158 ACTIVE 3,810 $0-49,999: 1885 88 $50,000-99,999: 1064 29 $100,000-149,999: 337 14 $150,000-199,999: 201 17 $200,000-249,999: 84 5 $250,000-299,999: 78 1 $300,000-349,999: 36 2 $350,000-399,999: 45 0 $400,000-449,999: 14 0 $450,000-499,999: 15 1 $500,000+: 51 1 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 ACTIVE CLOSED SALES TRENDS BUNCOMBE $120,000 LIST PRICE vs SALES PRICE/LOT HAYWOOD HENDERSON $102,500 MADISON POLK $85,000 RUTHERFORD $67,500 TRANSYLVANIA 0 20 40 60 80 100 1st Quarter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $50,000 2005 2010 2016 Per Parcel: Sales Price List Price beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
ACREAGE VITAL SIGNS 15+ acres not in subdivisions 2016 1ST QUARTER LIST/SELL RATIO AVERAGE ACRE SALES PRICE PARCELS TOTAL ACRES SOLD DISTRESSED SALES 86% $ 6,520 589 1,239 3% 2015 Q1: 88% 2015 Q1: $6,047 2015 Q1: 444 2015 Q1:1,543 2015 Q1: 5% ACTIVE vs CLOSED LISTINGS CLOSED 29 ACTIVE 589 $0-49,999: 1 4 $50,000-99,999: 28 4 $100,000-149,999: 38 4 $150,000-199,999: 63 4 $200,000-249,999: 40 1 $250,000-299,999: 50 3 $300,000-349,999: 38 2 $350,000-399,999: 33 1 $400,000-449,999: 12 0 $450,000-499,999: 35 2 $500,000+: 251 4 0 52 104 156 208 260 ACTIVE CLOSED INSIGHTS Large acreage sales outside of subdivisions were down 20% compared to last year. There continues to be insufficient demand to make a meaningful reduction in the available supply. In addition to the number of sales being down, the number of parcels available for purchase increased by 33% (145 units). With speculative new home construction remaining slow, demand for larger parcels is unlikely to increase until new home construction accelerates. Year-to-date building permits for the Asheville MSA (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, and Madison Counties) did increase by 18%, giving some hope for improvement in the future. SALES TRENDS BUNCOMBE $15000 LIST PRICE vs SALES PRICE/ACRE HAYWOOD HENDERSON MADISON $12000 $9000 POLK $6000 RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA $3000 0 2 4 6 8 10 1st Quarter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $0 2005 2010 2016 Per Parcel: Sales Price List Price 2016 1ST QUARTER 21
EW HOME COMMUNITIES COMMUNITY MARKETING GROUP (CMG) is the Beverly-Hanks full-service marketing division providing proven sales, marketing, and strategic consulting services to builders and developers. Our services are tailored to each project s specific needs. We offer everything from design charrettes and market feasibility studies to turn-key sales and marketing teams. Economists are forecasting another good year for housing as employment gains lead more people to purchase homes. Strength in new home construction was a key component of last year s economic growth. The South led the nation with the most housing starts, at 615,000: a 20.8% increase from February 2015. Across the United States, builders began construction on 1,178,000 new homes. Starts were up a staggering 30.9% from February 2015, according to the seasonally adjusted numbers in the U.S. Department of Commerce s new construction report. February represented the strongest single-family building in more than eight years, signaling continued demand for residential real estate. What s troubling many analysts is that applications for building permits, a gauge of future activity, dropped 3.1% in February after a flat reading in January and a 6.1% drop in December. The downward trend in building permits, unless reversed, could signal future trouble in an industry that was a bright spot for the economy last year. Source: US Census Bureau Housing Starts and Completions NORTH CAROLINA BUILDING PERMITS ONE-UNIT STRUCTURES, ROLLING 12 MONTHS ASHEVILLE BUILDING PERMITS Source: calculatedriskblog.com NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION CLOSING 6,916 239 100 2015: 7,755 2015: 203 2015: 88 Featured Community: The Ramble Closely patterned after the design and conservation principles used by Frederick Law Olmsted in his plans for Biltmore Forest and his estate, The Ramble s 1,000 acres was originally purchased by George W. Vanderbilt and was a favorite walking spot of his. Once fully completed, the community will hold 400 handcrafted homes, with much of the area devoted to an inviting network of parks, greenways, and common areas. Trails and paths loop across the property, inviting residents to take the opportunity to themselves ramble in the mountains. Here, you ll have a hard time knowing where the park stops and your home begins. To learn more, please visit ramblebiltmoreforest.com beverly-hanks.com/our-services
INDUSTRIAL 8 TRANSACTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SALES ACTIVITY 2016 1ST QUARTER OFFICE 16 TRANSACTIONS FOR RETAIL 17 TRANSACTIONS FOR MULTI-FAMILY 4 TRANSACTIONS FOR ALL COMMERCIAL 350 TRANSACTIONS FOR $ 11.1 MILLION $ 23.5 MILLION $ 12.3 MILLION $ 67.5 MILLION $ 485.5 MILLION 2015 Q1: $7.1 MILLION 2015 Q1: $17.4 MILLION 2015 Q1: $28.9 MILLION 2015 Q1: $19.7 MILLION 2015 Q1: $378.5 MILLION STEADY COMMERCIAL GROWTH The first quarter of 2016 had many parallels to first quarter 2015: sales were flat in office and industrial while multi-family had more volume with fewer transactions, and retail was down on volume and transactions. Leading the way was the sale of The Meadows apartment complex 392 units for approximately $42 million. Median sales prices remained flat for office properties at approximately $131 per foot while industrial properties rose to $47 a foot. Fourteen commercial land sales took place in 2016 Q1 for $8,300,000 at an average price of $81,982 per acre; the low was $8,000 per acre while the high was $1,428,500 per acre. On the leasing front, vacancies remain down year over year. The number of lease transactions for retail LEASE ACTIVITY properties was down year over year (due to Asheville Outlets leases in 2015 Q1); industrial was flat, and office was slightly up. NAI Global The single largest, most powerful global network of owneroperated commercial real estate brokerage firms. NAI Global member firms, leaders in their local markets, are actively managed to work in unison and provide you with exceptional solutions to your commercial real estate needs. Once again in 2015, NAI Beverly-Hanks was the region s market leader for commercial real estate brokerage sales. Our associates closed more than double the number of transactions of our nearest competitor. Beverly-Hanks 15 INDUSTRIAL LEASE TRANSACTIONS VACANCY RATE OF 5.6% Decrease of.7% from 2015 Q1 23 OFFICE LEASE TRANSACTIONS VACANCY RATE OF 4.9% Decrease of.6% from 2015 Q1 33 RETAIL LEASE TRANSACTIONS VACANCY RATE OF 3.8% Decrease of.1% from 2015 Q1 NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS The Meadows Apartments $42,375,000 30 London Road $663,400/$159.50 sf 946 Patton Avenue $2,100,000 FEATURED LISTING Laurel Park Shopping Center 1741 Brevard Road, Hendersonville 392-unit, 389,772-square-foot, class B multi-family apartment complex. Bell Partners Inc. were the sellers. 4,160-square-foot office building. Under contract in 17 days. NAI Beverly-Hanks represented the buyer and the seller. 1.47 acres with frontage on Patton Avenue. NAI Beverly-Hanks represented the buyer and the seller in this transaction. 84,300 square feet on leasehold estate property and a free-standing restaurant on fee simple property. Go to naibeverly-hanks.com 2016 1ST QUARTER 23 EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY
2016 QUARTER ONE REAL ESTATE INFORMATION for WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA Beverly-Hanks NMLS# 42020 2015 MARKET SHARE Western North Carolina Realty Firms 22.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.3% KELLER WILLIAMS HENDERSONVILLE COLDWELL BANKER KING PINNACLE REALTY OF NORTH CAROLINA 2.7% CAROLINA MOUNTAIN SALES Sales Volume $1.18 13.0% KELLER WILLIAMS ASHEVILLE BILLION 2.3% 2.1% PREFERRED PROPERTIES TOWN AND MOUNTAIN REALTY Source: CarolinaMLS beverly-hanks.com EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY