Growth and Land Use CHAPTER THREE

GROWTH AND LAND USE CHAPTER THREE Growth and Land Use This chapter begins with an analysis of carlisle s natural environment. It then considers Carlisle s existing land use characteristics and projects the amount of land needed to accomodate the City s projected 2025 population of about 5,184 (at 2% annual growth rate). 47

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN Natural Environment In addition to accommodating population growth, preserving natural resources should be a major goal of any comprehensive planning activity. Natural area/resource can be defined as a site/environment largely unaltered by modern human activity, where vegetation/wildlife is distributed in naturally occurring patterns. Land Use Plan policies should explicitly recognize natural areas or natural open space as a long term use in the community and should emphasize protecting such areas. Natural resources in any community not only serve environmental purposes but also contribute to support the local economy. Such resources provide opportunities for recreation. Carlisle possesses a unique combination of natural resources: rolling hills, rivers, extensive floodplain and wetlands, native prairies and woodlands and wildlife and vegetation. To create a livable community, future development in Carlisle should respect and integrate these natural resources. A. Water Resources/Floodplains Streams, lakes, and wetland provide important aquatic habitat for a myriad of plants and animals. A Comprehensive plan should address goals and policies related to conservation of water resources and existing floodplains in the city and surrounding areas. Wetlands are areas of poorly drained soils characterized by permanent or temporary soil saturation and occasionally standing water. Floodplains are areas adjacent to rivers, streams, and surface water bodies which are susceptible to flooding during periods of excessive water runoff. Map 3.1 illustrates the existing rivers, wetlands, lakes, ponds and the 100 year floodplain in the region. The 100-year floodplain includes all the land area that will be flooded during a 100 year flood event. A 100-year flood is a base flood that has a one percent chance of occurring in any year. The 100 year flood boundary, or the 100- year floodplain, is usually the area identified for development restrictions to avoid both upstream and downstream property damage as well as reduced governmental costs in relation to disaster relief. Within the city of Carlisle and the surrounding area, floodplain areas are found adjacent to most large watercourses and water bodies. B. Topography/Slopes Topography is the form of the earth s surface, in particular the changes in elevation of the surface. The examination of topography is necessary to help determine areas where development should be avoided, or where potential constraints may exist. The topography of Carlisle and its surrounding area ranges from nearly flat (0-2% slopes) to steeply sloping (over 18%) in some areas. It is important to protect steep or otherwise erodible slopes because their disturbance will result in soil erosion and other environmental problems. The location of steep slopes (18 percent or greater) in the City was determined from USGS maps, contour maps and slopes range map. Map 3.2 shows the USGS shaded relief map of 48

GROWTH AND LAND USE Map 3.1: Water Resources/Floodplains 49

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN the region. Map 3.3 illustrates the contours and Map 3.4 illustrates the slope range. The darker the areas, the greater the slopes. Slopes greater than 18% are unbuildable land and are illustrated in the darkest color. The department takes donated medical equipment that it then rents to residents. Storage of this equipment can be a challenge. The condition of the apparatus is generally good. A grass rid and a pumper truck should be next in line to be replaced. Map 3.2: USGS Shaded Relief Map of Carlisle and Surrounding Region 50

GROWTH AND LAND USE Map 3.3: Contour Map 51

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN 52 Map 3.4: Slopes

GROWTH AND LAND USE C. Natural Areas/Conservation Areas/Forest Reserves Conservation areas and forest resources include any rural forest lands, native forest communities, woodlands, conservation areas, areas of biological diversity, plantations as well as urban forests. There are many significant natural areas and forests in the region, some of which have been identified and some that are yet to be recognized. Forested areas in and around Carlisle correspond closely with the more steeply sloped areas. IDNR has identified some of the environmentally sensitive areas as conservation areas and forest boundaries. Such areas are home to many plant and animal species including some of the endangered species. Any land use proposed surrounding these areas will have an impact on these areas and impacts should be minimized as much as possible. Map 3.5 illustrates the existing rivers, conservation areas, forest reserves, woodlands, parks and existing trails in the region. D. Soils Soils are the surface layers of the earth. It is important to understand the characteristics of the soils, before moving ahead with development works. Soil suitability is a key factor in determining the best and most cost efficient locations for new development. Hydric soils are poorly drained soils originally associated with wet prairies and wetlands. Knowledge of the location of hydric soils is important for a number of reasons. Hydric soils provide an indication of historic wetlands and locations for potential wetland restoration. Hydric soils also are areas that may be prone to flooding or otherwise wet conditions if the infrastructure that drains the soil (tiles and ditches) is not maintained. Soil types within the city are illustrated on Map 3.6. Of note is the presence of significant hydric soils in the Carlisle Gateway area south of 72nd Street. E. Site Suitability for Development Using the different natural features mentioned above, a composite map was developed for determining the suitability of land available for development. Map 3.7 shows the land suitable for development within Carlisle and surrounding area. High slopes are unbuildable land. Development is restricted along the floodplains. A large part of the city land on the northeast side falls in the floodplain and thus limits development opportunity in this area. The map also illustrates already developed areas in the City and surrounding area. The map depicts possible development opportunities within and adjacent to the current city limits. Large amount of land suitable for development within the current city limits is available on the northwest side and along the gateway area which previously noted has presence of significant hydric soils. The analysis of natural resources is undertaken to identify the resources that need protection in order to maintain the quality of life and character of the city. The land use plan must consider natural conditions as they relate to limiting or encouraging particular kinds of development. The plan should encourage wise and sustainable recreational, aesthetic, scientific and economic use of these resources. 53

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN Map 3.5: Natural Areas/Conservation Areas 54

GROWTH AND LAND USE Map 3.6: Soil Type 55

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN Map 3.7: Development Suitability 56

GROWTH AND LAND USE Existing Land Use Categories Existing Land Uses This section examines the land use characteristics and trends affecting the amount of land needed to accommodate future development in Carlisle, Iowa. Map 3.8 and Table 3.1 summarize current land use in Carlisle and the surrounding area based on a 2008 field survey completed by RDG Planning & Design. Consideration of existing land use patterns is necessary for understanding the characteristics and capabilities of the area and possible sites for development. Table 3.2 compares Carlisle s land use distribution with those of the surrounding communities of comparable size and proximity to metro areas. Agriculture/Open Space accounts for almost 68% of the total land in Carlisle, or 2463.6 acres of agricultural/open space use. Of this total area, only 1,027.4 acres is developable or about 42% of the total agriculture/open space use. The remaining 1,436 acres falls in the floodplain, that is about 58% of the total agriculture/open space. This undevelopable land within the city limits constitutes a significant percentage of total city area. About 31% of the total land in Carlisle is already developed. The character of development can be summarized into four major categories: Residential Uses Commercial Uses Industrial Uses Civic, Parks and Recreation Uses Residential Uses As Indicated in Table 3.1, residential uses constitute Carlisle s major land use category, accounting for 42.6% of the developed land in Carlisle, or 478.9 acres of residential use. Low density, single family residential developments are the largest residential use in Carlisle which accounts for approximately 88.7% of residential land use. It indicates that Single Family Residential housing dominates the community s housing stock. Multi-family housing accounts for only about 4% of residential land use and is located in a variety of areas throughout the city. Commercial Uses Commercial development is the smallest land use in Carlisle. Commercial development only accounts for about 1.5% of developed land in Carlisle. This category includes uses such as offices, restaurants, services, retail and general commercial stores and auto services. There is very little commercial development outside the city limits. Primary commercial nodes in the city include Downtown area, the entrance to Downtown from Hwy 5 and parts of the Hwy 5 Corridor. Industrial Uses Not including the transportation infrastructure, industrial land uses constitute about 11.2% of developed land, or 125.42 acres, of the total amount of developed land. This category includes uses such as warehousing, general-industrial, mini-storage 57

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN and larger storage facilities and regional or agricultural industrial uses. Contributing to this category are the industrial areas near downtown and northeast of Downtown, industrial uses along Hwy 5 and 166th Avenue and the Heartland Co-op and General Mills Operations Inc. at SE 62nd Street and SE 64th Ave. Civic, Parks and Recreation Uses Civic, Parks and Recreation uses comprise 10.9% of the total developed land in Carlisle. This category includes uses such as schools, institutions, public utilities, parks, recreation facilities, libraries and civic buildings. The Carlisle Public Library, Carlisle Schools, City Hall, North Park and South Park are examples of uses that are included in this category. About 4.5% of the developed land in Carlisle is dedicated for Parks and Recreation uses. Map 3.8 depicts the current land use in Carlisle and the surrounding area. The Northeast area of the city is mostly undevelopable land lying in the Des Moines, North River and Middle River floodplains. Development is mainly concentrated north and south of Highway 5. New development is focused near the southern City limits and along Scotch Ridge Road. Some of the newly developed areas include the Randleman TABLE 3.1: Land Use Distribution, 2008 Land Use Category Acres % Of Developed Land Acres per 100 People Residential 478.86 42.6% 12.76 Low Density Residential 424.87 37.8% 11.32 Medium Density Residential 12.39 1.1% 0.33 High Density Residential 18.72 1.7% 0.50 Mobile Home 22.90 2.0% 0.61 Commercial 16.94 1.5% 0.45 Office 5.90 0.5% 0.16 Restaurants and Services 2.73 0.2% 0.07 Retail and General Commercial 4.20 0.4% 0.11 Auto Services 4.11 0.4% 0.11 Industrial 125.42 11.2% 3.34 General Industrial 118.50 10.6% 3.16 Light Industrial 6.93 0.6% 0.18 Civic 122.51 10.9% 3.26 Other Civic Uses 71.65 6.4% 1.91 Parks and Rec. 50.86 4.5% 1.36 Transportation/Parking/Utilities 379.36 33.8% 10.11 Total Developed Land 1123.09 100.0% 29.93 Agriculture and Open Space 2463.56 Developable 1,027.42 (42%) Undevelopable (Floodplain) 1436.14 (58%) Vacant Urban Land 32.22 Total Area 3618.87 58

GROWTH AND LAND USE Map 3.8: Existing Land Use Map: Carlisle and Surrounding Area 59

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN Ridge Development and Danmere Farms. Map 3.9 is a zoom in on the Hwy 5 area. Downtown Carlisle is located north of Hwy 5 and consists of offices, services and retail stores. Comparision with Other Cities A comparision of the land use distribution of Carlisle with that of other communities offers additional insights into the City s growth patterns and economic specialization. Table 3.2 displays the percentage of developed land that is devoted to residential, commercial, industrial, civic, parks and recreation and transportation uses, as well as the population density of each use in several cities. Cities for comparison purpose include the following: Kalona an independent community of about 2,300 located south of Iowa City Polk city - Des Moines metro area bedroom community of about 2,344 located along Saylorville Lake Waukee - a rapidly growing suburban city of about 6,000 located immediately west of Des Moines Ankeny - a suburban city of about 27,000 located north of Des Moines, Iowa Those aspects of Carlisle that are unique can be identified from this comparison of communities. However, one aspect of Carlisle s land use pattern that is very unique has already been highlighted. As indicated on Table 3.1, Carlisle has more land area that is undevelopable floodplain (1,436 acres) than its total developed area (1,123 acres). This is an extraordinary amount of permanent open space within the city limits for a community of this size. Other unique aspects of Carlisle s land use pat- Map 3.9: Existing Land Uses along Highway 5 and Downtown 60

GROWTH AND LAND USE terns, from Table 3.2 above, are as follows: Carlisle has an extraordinarily large amount of land in Transportation/ Utilities. However, upon examination of Map 3.1, it is clear that this is due to the large amount of excess right-of-way of Highway 5/65 north of 64th St. (Army Post Road). As this land should be more appropriately classified as Agriculture/ Open Space on the land use map, this is not a significant distinction. Carlisle has considerably less land in Commercial use than the comparison communities. This is a significant point. Even Waukee, which lies amidst the western suburban retail powerhouses, has twice the commercial land area as Carlisle. Ankeny, which has recently expanded its retail base, has almost 6% commercial land area, while Polk City has almost 5%. This percentage range (5-6%) can serve as a realistic long term goal for Carlisle. Carlisle has significantly more land area in Industrial than the comparison communities. Carlisle is right up there with Ankeny, which has focused on the development of its business park and light industrial areas for decades. However, Carlisle s developed industrial area is not in newer business parks, but in older established industrial uses. This availability of existing industrial space could become a focal point of Carlisle s growth strategy. Carlisle s percentage of land in Residential reflects that of a balanced, independent community more than that of a bedroom suburb. Carlisle s percentage of residential land use is comparable to Kalona s, and significantly less than Polk City s and Waukee s. While this statistic is somewhat influenced by the high percentage of Carlisle s land use in the Transportation/Utilities category, nonetheless, the relatively low percentage of Carlisle s residential land use reflects a more balanced land use mix rather than a predominance of residential land use TABLE 3.2. Comparative Land Use Distribution % of Developed Area Carlisle Kalona Polk City Waukee Ankeny Residential 42.6% 41.5% 60.2% 59.0% 33.5% Commercial 1.5% 13.9% 4.6% 3.5% 5.8% Industrial 11.2% 5.1% 0.5% 7.8% 12.1% Civic 6.4% 9.4% 7.7% 16.1% 19.4% Parks/Recreation 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.3% 5.9% Transportation/Utilities 33.8% 26.1% 23.4% 10.4% 23.0% Total Developed Area 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Acres per 100 Residents Carlisle Kalona Polk City Waukee Ankeny Residential 12.76 12.86 12.49 16.11 9.10 Commercial 0.45 4.31 0.96 0.97 1.60 Industrial 3.34 1.58 0.11 2.13 3.30 Civic 1.91 2.91 1.59 4.39 5.30 Parks/Recreation 1.36 1.24 0.76 0.89 1.60 Transportation/Utilities 10.11 8.07 4.85 2.85 6.30 Total Developed Area 29.93 30.98 20.75 27.33 27.20 Source: RDG Planning and Design 61

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN characteristic of a bedroom suburb. Ankeny s percentage of land in Residential (33.5%) again can represent a long-term goal for Carlisle, in that Ankeny can be said to have a well-balanced land use mix. Carlisle has the lowest percentage of land use in the Civic category among the comparison communities. This is likely due to the fact that Carlisle s civic buildings (City Hall, Police, Fire and Library) are very compact developments in the downtown area, with little off-street parking. Similar facilities, on free-standing sites with associated off-street parking would result in significantly more land area. With growth, it is likely that these civic facilities will expand, some to sites away from the compact downtown area. Land Need Projections Forecasts of future land needs in Carlisle are based on population and development projections for the planning period up to the year 2025. These projections are broken into Residential, Commercial and Industrial categories. Residential Land Use Projections In Chapter 1, an analysis of alternative population projections was presented. After extensive discussion, the Planning Committee determined that a population projection goal of a 2% Annual Growth Rate would be adopted to guide the planning process. As indicated in Table 3.3, this projection results in a year 2025 population of 5,124. Note that in Chapter 1, projections were made to the year 2030, and resulted in a projected population of 5,703 in that year. For purposes of land needs projections, this Chapter is projecting to the year 2025. Also shown on Table 3.3 is the population that would result from a growth rate limited to the eight-year average annual construction rate in Carlisle of 16 dwelling units/ year. The 2% growth rate represents, on average, a doubling of the annual construction rate experience from 2000 to 2007. However, given the metro area construction numbers and Carlisle s potential, this is viewed as a realistic goal. Table 3.4 presents the twenty-year housing demand assuming that Carlisle will have a population of 5,184 in 2025. This analysis is based on following assumptions: To project annual demand, the number of units needed in a given year (number of households plus projected vacancy rate) is compared with the number of units available during that year (housing supply during the year less the units that leave the housing supply and must be replaced). Twenty year demands are based on multiples of the five-year population demand computed in this section. A projection of an annual growth rate of 2% is used and a projected 2008 population of 3,753 is used as the base population. Household size in Carlisle is expected to remain same (i.e. 2.54 per household) throughout the planning period. The 2000 Census indicated that the City s vacancy rate was 2.97%. Carlisle s 2000 vacancy rate of 2.97% will continue throughout the planning period. Loss of existing units will be insignificant during the planning period. It is assumed that no units will be lost to demolition due to substandard structures. The vast majority of Carlisle s housing units are in good/fair condition. 62

GROWTH AND LAND USE The results of the twenty year housing need projection show a cumulative housing demand of 667 units, resulting in an average construction of 34 units. Again, this represents a doubling of 2000 to 2007 construction rates in Carlisle. These housing projections are further used to estimate the amount of land needed to accommodate residential growth during the planning period. It is anticipated that single-family detached units will remain the predominant housing form in Carlisle throughout the planning period. However, townhomes, attached units and condominiums are also popular among young families and empty-nesters. Increasing concern for housing affordability and attracting younger people suggests that higher density housing forms that maintain single family characteristics will become more popular. Demand for multi-family housing is also increasing. Based on a desirable occupancy standard, it is projected that approximately 65% of the new units will be single family detached, 15% will be single family attached, and townhomes or duplexes and 20% will be multi family. The residential land projections estimate the amount of land that will be needed to accommodate growth with this land use mix through 2025. The projections are based on the following assumptions: On average, three single family detached units will require one acre of land, six single-family attached units will require an acre of land and the average gross density of multi-family development will be 12 units to an acre. The TABLE 3.3. Population Projection, 2000-2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Change, 2000-2025 Average Annual Change 2% Annual Growth 3,497 3,541 3,895 4,285 4,713 5,184 1687 67 Average Annual Construction of 16 Dwelling Units Source: RDG Planning and Design 3,497 3,541 3,738 3,935 4,132 4,328 831 33 TABLE 3.4: Projected Housing Development Demand 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total Population at the End of Period 3,753 3,895 4,285 4,713 5,184 -- Household Population at End of 3,655 3,793 4,172 4,589 5,048 -- Period Average People/Household 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 -- Household demand at End of 1,439 1,493 1,642 1,807 1,987 -- Period Projected Vacancy Rate 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% -- Unit Needs at End of Period 1,483 1,539 1,693 1,862 2,048 -- Replacement Need -- - - - - Cumulative Need -- 157 154 169 186 667 Average Annual Construction -- -- 31 34 37 34 Source: RDG Planning & Design 63

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN projected allocation of each unit type, divided by the estimated average gross density, produces the amount of land needed to accommodate each housing type. As a standard, the plan recommends the land provided for residential development over a twenty-year period be equal to twice the area that new growth actually needs. This is necessary to preserve competitive land pricing and provide consumer choice. Based on these assumptions, Table 3.5 displays the amount of new land that will be required for additional residential development. To accommodate the housing growth, it is projected that the City will need an additional 172 acres of residential land or, a little more than a quarter section of land. Using the rule of designating land at a rate of two times the hard demand, it is suggested that about 345 acres be reserved for residential development over the next 20 years. The actual development concept outlined later in this document identifies areas in which this potential development should occur. Commercial Land Use Projections With population growth comes some demand for additional commercial services. Commercial growth is also an important part of the city s overall economic development strategy. Although this plan does not include a comprehensive retail market analysis, it is important that adequate space for commercial and retail activities be allocated to meet the future market needs. It is also important not to allocate too much land for commercial development, which could restrict growth of other land uses. Two methods are typically used to estimate the land need for commercial use, as detailed below. As described earlier with Table 3.2, Comparative Land Use Distribution, Carlisle has an unusually small amount of commercial land use. These methodologies, which both are based on a continuation of the past land use mix, will there- TABLE 3.5: Required Residential Land 2008-2025 % of Demand Units Gross Density (du/a) Land Needs Designated Land (x2) 2008-2015 Single Family Detached 65% 202 3 67.4 134.8 Single Family Attached 15% 47 6 7..8 15.6 Multi-family 20% 62 12 5.2 10.4 Total 100% 311 80.4 160.8 2015-2025 Single Family Detached 65% 231 3 77.0 154.0 Single Family Attached 15% 53 6 8.9 17.8 Multi-family 20% 71 12 5.9 11.8 Total 100% 355 91.8 183.7 Total 2005-2025 667 172.2 344.4 Source: RDG: Planning & Design 64

GROWTH AND LAND USE fore underestimate the amount of commercial land needed. They will nonetheless be described below and we will then return to this issue. A Population Service Relationship: This method relates commercial growth to population projections. It assumes that the absolute amount of commercial land per 100 people will remain the same and that new commercial development will grow in proportion to population growth. A Residential Use Proportion method: This method assumes a constant relationship between the amount of land used for residential and commercial purposes, thereby relating commercial growth directly to residential development rates. Table 3.6 compares the results of these two methods, suggesting a need for 6 to 10 acres of commercial land during the planning period. This would account for only new commercial construction and not for additional commercial operations in existing vacant sites. As mentioned, these methodologies will underestimate the amount of commercial land, based on the fact that only 1.5% of Carlisle s developed land area is commercial, as compared to a more typical 4-6% (from Table 3.2). A doubling or even tripling of the current amount of commercial land area would bring Carlisle more in line with comparable communities. Therefore, rather than an additional 6 to 10 acres of commercial land, it would not be extravagant to say that Carlisle might see an additional 15 to 30 acres of commercial land area developed in the next 25 years. Also, this analysis considers only neighborhood and community-oriented commercial development and excludes regional retail facilities. Because regional commercial development is not closely related to changes in a community s population, it is extremely difficult to accurately estimate future demand for this type of development. Thus, additional land should be allocated for regional commercial development based on location and available vacant land in the regional retail district. Carlisle could also capitalize on regional traffic along the Highway 5 corridor. This market TABLE 3.6: Estimated Commercial Land Needs 2008 2015 2025 Conversion Need Designated Land (x1.5) Population Proportion Method Projected Population 3,753 4,285 5,184 Commercial Use/100 res. 0.45 0.45 0.45 Projected Commercial Use (acres) 16.9 23.6 23.4 6.5 9.75 Residential Use Proportion Method Residential Land (acres) 478.9 559.3 651.1 Commercial/Residential 0.035377 0.035377 0.035377 Ratio Projected Commercial Use (acres) 16.9 19.8 23.0 6.1 9.1 Source: RDG Planning and Design 65

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN is not reflected in either of the methods but should be recognized in the city s future land use. In order to provide alternative sites for commercial development, as with the residential land projection, the amount of commercial land that should be designated is more than the actual projected demand. The land use plan should designate 1.5 times the hard demand for commercial land. For purposes of this general land needs projection, it is recommended that a need for at least another 20 to 30 acres of commercial land be identified on the future land use plan. Industrial Land Use Projections The amount of future industrial and business park expansion is dependent upon the City s desire to accommodate more industrial land uses, as well as market demand for available land near Des Moines MPO region. In Carlisle s case, accessibility to major transportation corridors makes future attraction of large industrial facilities probable. It is also important to provide ample land for expansion or relocation of existing industrial uses in the city. The need for industrial land is less directly related to population growth than commercial, making it more difficult to predict the need. The employment base for Carlisle stretches far beyond the City limits and is largely affected by proximity to the metropolitan area and other suburban communities. Also, a single major corporate decision can dramatically increase (or decrease) the projected industrial demand in a community. In addition, a decision by the City to pursue industrial development can affect industrial land needs. However, the projection methods used to predict commercial demand may also be used to approximate industrial needs. Population proportion method or Residential use proportion method can be utilized to project the amount of industrial and business park land needed in Carlisle throughout the planning period. Table 3.8 displays projected industrial and business park land needs for Carlisle through 2025. Table 3.7 calculates additional industrial land needs within the city. Based on increasing population and residential use proportion methods described above, Carl- TABLE 3.7: Estimated Industrial/Business Park Land Needs 2008 2015 2025 Conversion Need Designated Land (x3) Population Proportion Method Projected Population 3,753 4,285 5,184 Industrial Use/100 res. 3.34 3.34 3.34 Projected Industrial Use (acres) 125.4 143.2 173.3 47.8 143.5 Residential Use Proportion Method Residential Land (acres) 478.9 559.3 651.1 Industrial/Residential Ratio 0.26194 0.26194 0.26194 Projected Industrial Use 125.4 146.5 170.6 45.1 135.3 (acres) Source: RDG Planning and Design 66

GROWTH AND LAND USE isle should absorb between 45 to 48 acres of new industrial land. In order to provide maximum flexibility, the land use plan should designate about three times the hard demand for industrial use. Under this assumption Carlisle should provide between 135 to 144 acres of industrial and business park land. Carlisle should seek opportunities to attract new industrial development so that this projection can be realized. Summary of Population and Land Use Projections Carlisle s population has been increasing over last few decades. This growth can be expected to continue at an increased rate if Carlisle positions itself properly to take advantage of its strengths and capture a larger piece of regional demand. Recent housing construction trends depict an average annual construction of 16 units per year. If Carlisle is successful in marketing itself, the City could reach a population of 4,285 by 2015 and 5,184 by 2025, reflecting a 2% annual growth rate. A population of 5,184 in 2025 will generate a need for an additional 667 dwelling units. The additional dwelling units should be composed of 65% single family detached, 15% single family attached, and 20% multi-family, creating demand for approximately 172 acres. However, to assure a variety of choices in the market the City should designate roughly 345 acres in addition to the vacant land currently zoned for residential use. Note that if Carlisle continues to build predominantly single-family dwellings, rather than the balanced residential development proposed, the community will need a larger amount of land to accommodate residential development. In order to meet the growing city s commercial and industrial demand, between 20 and 30 additional acres of community commercial land and between 45 to 144 acres of industrial and business park land will need to be set aside for development in the twenty-year planning period. 67

CARLISLE Comprehensive PLAN 68