The future of Real Estate Education Gloucestershire Property Market Overview May 2014
Cheltenham and Gloucester Property Market Overview Arvydas Jadevicius Dr. Simon Huston May 2014 arvydas.jadevicius@rau.ac.uk simon.huston@rau.ac.uk Executive summary 1. This report examines the property market in Gloucester and Cheltenham. It assesses asking property prices for May 2014 for both settlements and compares them with England & Wales and Greater London average. 2. The data indicates that the average asking house price in Cheltenham is 66% higher than in Gloucester, with asking house prices in Cheltenham being also 28% greater than the average in England & Wales. 3. The further analysis of property types draws out market distinctions between the two settlements. Asking prices for terraced houses, for example, are on average 114 % higher in Cheltenham than in Gloucester. 4. Properties in Gloucestershire are above average single person s gross annual income multiplier, which points to modest income in Gloucestershire and low housing affordability in the county. - 2 -
Asking house prices in Gloucester and Cheltenham This overview briefly reviews aspects of the Gloucestershire property market with a focus on Gloucester and Cheltenham. It examines current asking property prices and rents in the adjacent settlements in the context of national averages. It is important to note, the analysis is based on asking prices which can differ from realised ones. The May data from Home.co.uk shows an average asking house price in Gloucester was 200,444 and 332,328 in Cheltenham. In England & Wales it was 260,609 and 454,034 in Greater London. The average time on market (ToM) of unsold property in Gloucester is 118 days. It is 94 days in Cheltenham. The data indicates that the average asking house price in Cheltenham is 66% higher than in Gloucester. Cheltenham asking house prices are also 28% greater than average asking house prices in England & Wales. In contrast, asking house prices in Gloucester are 23% and 55% lower than in England and Wales and London respectively. The 500,000 454,034 chances of selling a house in Cheltenham are also greater than in 332,328 Gloucester. Properties 260,609 in Gloucester are 200,444 advertised on average 24 days longer than in Cheltenham before they are sold. Cheltenham Gloucester England & Wales Greater London Figure 1. Average asking house prices (Source: Home, 2014a) 600,000 140% 500,000 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Detached Semi Terraced Flat All Cheltenham Gloucester Difference Figure 2. Average asking house prices by property type (Source: Home, 2014a) The market dichotomy between Gloucester and Cheltenham is confirmed when the analysis is refined by property type. Asking prices for terraced houses are on average 114% higher in Cheltenham than in Gloucester. - 3 -
For the combined 35% 30% markets, annual 25% 29% asking price inflation 20% sits at around 6% 21% 19% 15% 17% but the average 14% 10% 6% masks distinctions. 5% 2% 6% Price inflation was 1% 0% Detached Semi Terraced Flat All much stronger in -5% -4% Cheltenham than in -10% Gloucester. In the Change:: Cheltenham (y-o-y) Change:: Gloucester (y-o-y) Spa town, house Figure 3. Average asking house prices by property type (Source: Home, 2014a) asking prices grew by double digits. In comparison, Gloucester s dwelling performance in the year to May 2013 was more muted. Only Detached and Terraced houses saw double-digit growth whilst, asking prices for Gloucester flats actually fell 4%. It could be that the increased supply of flats from Gloucester s central regeneration projects is affecting its sensitive market. In contrast, it 1,200,000 180% could be 1,000,000 150% suggested that 800,000 120% vocal selfinterest 600,000 90% 60% 30% throttles housing supply in Cheltenham. In the wealthier 0% enclave, terrace 5+ 4 3 2 1 Bedroom All Bedrooms Bedrooms Bedrooms Bedrooms houses jumped Cheltenham Gloucester Difference 29%, semidetached Figure 4. Average asking house prices by number of bedrooms (Source: Home, 2014a) ones increased 21%, and detached dwellings rose 17% compared to the same period last year. In short, house price growth was strong in Cheltenham but unremarkable in Gloucester. In both settlements, asking prices for flats remained static or declined but more research is required to investigate supply drivers or bottlenecks. Tighter analysis, taking into account the number of bedrooms, suggests Cheltenham is 71% more expensive than Gloucester. The smallest difference is between 1 bedroom properties where asking prices in Cheltenham are 41% higher than in Gloucester. The greatest difference is amongst 5+ bedroom properties with asking prices in Cheltenham being almost double (164%) those in Gloucester. - 4 -
The different character of the two settlements emerges when high-end properties, worth over 1 million are considered. In Gloucester, none were offered for sale in May 2014 but in Cheltenham 63 were 350 listed. Gloucester 300 property stock is 250 concentrated in the - 200 150 price bracket. In 100 Cheltenham, the 50 majority fall in the same category, although a high proportion of properties are in - price range. Asking rents in Gloucester and Cheltenham When asking rents between the two settlements are compared, the picture of market polarisation is reinforced. The average asking property rent in Gloucester is 608pcm and 844pcm in Cheltenham, which is 39% higher. In terms of Time on the Market (ToM), properties in both settlements stay in the market on average 100 days before they get let. However, rents and ToM are different by property type. The biggest difference is in flats. Asking rents for flats in Cheltenham are 55% higher than in its neighbour. For house and room rents the premium in Cheltenham is 38% and 6% respectively. Interestingly, rooms in Cheltenham stay in the market almost 1,200 1,000 twice longer than in Gloucester (38%). It 800 requires further 600 research to establish if differences in job 400 387 352 markets character 200 could explain the turnover dichotomy. The average room ToM in Gloucester is 156 days, while it is 216 days in Cheltenham. 0 under to to Cheltenham to to 500,000 Gloucester 500,000 to 1,000,000 Figure 5. Average asking price by properties for sale (Source: Home, 2014a) 741 458 1,020 Room Flat House 884 Figure 6. Average asking rents by properties type (Source: Home, 2014a) over 1,000,000 Cheltenham (rent) Gloucester (rent) Cheltenham (Tom) Gloucester (ToM) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-5 -
Affordability ratio Further market insights emerge when looking at indicators of affordability in the dual markets. For convenience, a well know Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is calculated. The P/E ratio compares dwelling asking house price with individual annual income. A high P/E suggests that the property could be somewhat overvalued. Confirmation requires much more fine-grained quality analysis of individual properties, involving site visits, architecture, physical and social geography, expert opinions and various searches. The P/E measure also ignores the impact of interest rates or property maintenance/refurbishment. Notwithstanding P/E s limitations, it gives a good approximation of housing affordability. A P/E ratio of 4 suggests its asking price is within the budget of an ordinary household. A value over 4 suggests that local earnings are insufficient to buy property. The current P/E 350,000 16 estimates for 14 Cheltenham and 250,000 12 Gloucester suggest 10 that both 8 150,000 settlements are 6 relatively expensive 4 50,000 2 compared to 0 average local Cheltenham Gloucester incomes. The ratio Average salary Average house price P/E for Gloucester Figure 7. APRA ratio (Source: Home, 2014a; PayScale, 2014) stands at 8, while in Cheltenham it is 14. The P/E indicates that houses in Gloucestershire are around eight times single person gross annual incomes. To put this ratio into some sort of perspective, consider 2013 National (England) and Regional (South-West) secondstepper ratios of 6.5 of and 7.8 respectively (DCLG, 2014). These high Gloucestershire P/E ratios suggest a combination of inflated prices and low wages. - 6 -
Data and its limitations Data was obtained from the Home.co.uk which contains a database of UK residential properties advertised for sale and rent on the Internet. The website has links to 528,704 Properties for Sale and 262,442 Properties for Rent across England, Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland. It collates all data and produces actual asking prices for homes for sale calculated daily from the properties in the Home.co.uk property search. On the lettings side, it summarises the advertised rents for homes to let, calculated daily from the rental properties found by the Home.co.uk property search engine (Home, 2014b; 2014c). Limitations to the analysis include asking price indexation which represents forward looking house price information. It does not comprise the information the property was sold for and therefore factual data required (Acadata, 2013). Nevertheless, asking price data measures changes in the prices asked by house-seller which is a useful measure of what might happen to actual selling prices in five months time (Home, 2014b; 2014c). Limitations also extend to income data. Although PayScale is a reputable remuneration data provider which insights around salary and career topics are mentioned in various publications, it is, however, not without limitations. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by the Royal Agricultural University for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of the Royal Agricultural University in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of the Royal Agricultural University to the form and content within which it appears. References Acadata (2013) Acadata prices and transactions (APAT LGA) synopsis [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.acadata.co.uk/acadata%20prices%20and%20transactions%20(apat%20lga)%20synopsis.pdf>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) (2014) Ratio of lower quartile workplace earnings to lower quartile house prices [Internet]. Available at: <http://data.gov.uk/dataset/ratio_of_lower_quartile_workplace_earnings_to_lower_quartile_house_prices/resource/c0 4ea3ae-3bcf-4e41-942d-b7798a14a796>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. Home (2014a) Prices and Rents [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.home.co.uk/>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. Home (2014b) About Home.co.uk - The UK's Best Property Website [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.home.co.uk/company/about.htm>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. Home (2014c) HomeCo Asking Price Index (API): Technical calculation document [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/mix-adj_methodology.pdf>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. PayScale (2014) Average Salary for Location [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.payscale.com/>, [Accessed 02 June 2014]. - 7 -