Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast 2005 Presented by: The Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Real Estate Centers University of Pennsylvania Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center at Wharton University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics Virginia Commonwealth University Virginia Real Estate Center Virginia Tech University Virginia Center for Housing Research Old Dominion University Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Johns Hopkins University Allan L. Berman Real Estate Institute University of Connecticut Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies VOLUNTEER EFFORT Executive Committee Ron Bray Craig Cope John Crunkleton Tom Dillon Brian Dundon Joan Gifford Cliff Moore Jonathan Guion Warren Harris Joyce Hartman Andrew Keeney Billy King John Lombard Van Rose Brad Sanford PROFESSIONALISM Sponsorship Committee Cliff Moore, Chair Larry Colorito Programs Committee Joyce Hartman, Chair Jonathan Guion Ron Bray Stephanie Sanker Eva Wiggins
Research & Editorial Committee Brian Dundon, Chair Beth Hancock Joy Learn Sandi Prestridge Maureen Rooks Lane Shea Brad Sanford Special thank you to Inside Business for their sponsorship over the past three years. Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast 2005 Presented by: The Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Multi-Family Market Presented by Wendy Drucker Multifamily Market Overview 2,178 apartments under construction in Hampton Roads with an additional 1,256 proposed Wendy C. Drucker - Drucker & Falk, LLC - Newport News, VA
Apartment Distribution by City City Virginia Beach Portsmouth Norfolk Newport News Hampton Chesapeake/Suffolk Yorktown/Wmbg/JCC 2000 31% 6% 16% 23% 10% 9% 5% 2004 28% 8% 16% 21% 11% 9% 6%
Bondale Apartments
Bondale Apartments Bondale Apartments Bondale Apartments Bondale Apartments Bolling Square Bolling Square
Bolling Square Rents in Hampton Roads have increased 43% since 1997 Vacancies still below 5% Income/Expense Comparison - Per Unit Basis 101-180 Units 2000 Variance 2003 Total Income $6,253 $685 (11.0%) $6,938 Insurance $63 $127 (202.0%) $190 RE Taxes $292 $19 (6.5%) $311 Payroll $939 $107 (11.4%) $1,046 Total Expenses $1,294 $253 (19.5%) $1,547 Insurance Rates 181 250 Units Total Income 2000 $6,476 Variance $1,636 (25.0%) 2003 $8,112 Insurance RE Taxes Payroll Total Expenses $114 $349 $866 $1,329 $52 (45.0%) $128 (36.0%) $116 (13.4%) $296 (22.3%) $166 $477 $982 $1,625 Taxes Payroll Management personnel has shifted from caretaker to that of Asset Manager State and Federal Certifications Growing building industry competing for these same maintenance people
2004 Sales Activity Low Cap Rates 6.86% - 9.04% Low Interest Rates Sales Prices $21,393 $135,938 per Unit What s Driving our Market Military Growth Government Contractors Modeling and Simulation Bio Technology New Industry Growth at the Port Dollars available for Real Estate Investment & Development Retirees Lack of Available Land Where are the Opportunities? What are the Challenges? What s in the Future? Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Office Market Presented by John Profilet
Downtown Norfolk Class A B C Office Space Percentage Occupancy Southside Class A B C Office Space Percentage Occupancy 100 100 95 95 Percentage 90 85 80 Percentage 90 85 80 75 75 70 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 70 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Year Peninsula Class A B C Office Space Percentage Occupancy CENTRAL BUSINESS PARK 100 95 Percentage 90 85 80 75 70 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year BATTLEFIELD
AMERIGROUP AMERIGROUP VIRGINIA BEACH TOWN CENTER Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Residential Market Presented by Van Rose 9
10 Year History of Resale and New Construction Closings Hampton Roads Housing Stats - 2004 25000 7,265 Building Permits 5330 Closed New Home Sales 20000 15000 10000 5000 7049 7265 4843 5330 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Resale New Construction 2003 2004 2003 2004 Permits Closings Hampton Roads Housing Stats - 2004 Average Price of SF New Home $313,972 An Increase of $56,624 or 22 % in one year Average Price of SF Existing Home $207,527 An Increase of $34,654 or 20 % in one Year Growth of Home Sizes & Price Per Square Foot 2002 $170K $79 SF 2150 SF 2003 $258K $104 SF 2480 SF $313K $118 SF 2004 2647 SF 2005 $398K $142 SF 2800 SF Market Share 1994 vs. 2004 Southside Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2004 Single-Family Detached Homes $400,000 $350,000 $365,384 $333,778 $314,936 36% NC NC 14% $300,000 $250,000 $270,338 $225,871 $220,339 $200,000 64% Resale Resale 86% $150,000 $100,000 $95,046 $107,907 $94,597 $50,000 1994 2004 $0 VB Ches Suff Resale NC Diff
Southside Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2003 Single-Family Detached Homes Peninsula Resale VS. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2003 Single-Family Detached Homes $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $242,101 $248,363 $256,795 $310,230 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $240,363 $320,599 $300,018 $277,145 $258,726 $299,073 $200,000 $164,984 $200,000 $156,825 $124,354 $150,000 $100,000 $117,747 $83,379 $53,435 $150,000 $100,000 $118,791 $121,572 $101,901 $20,581 $50,000 $50,000 $22,664 $0 Ports Norf I/W $0 H NN JCC YC Resale NC Diff Resale NC Diff. Average Consumer Lot Costs Chesapeake Average Consumer Lot Costs Suffolk Greystone - $117,146 $483,879 Governors Pointe - $199,492 $700,000* Ravenna - $127,509 $461,433 Nansemond River Estates - $87,996 $354,418 Cahoon Plantation - $151,300 $493,420 Hillpoint Greens - $125,916 $354,146 Edinburgh - $181,805 $807,068 The Riverfront - $179,591 * Projected Average Price $533,316 Average Consumer Lot Costs Virginia Beach Average Consumer Lot Costs Peninsula Lago Mar $169,698 $555,655 H Howe Farm $85,825 $336,689 Mansfield Farms $272,766 $661,379 N Port Warwick $91,661 $326,900 Bay Hill $279,000 $656,328 J Fords Colony $129,028 $476,382 Indian River Plantation -$194,529 $654,516 Y Running Man - $89,717 $423,782
RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 1. Extremely Positive!!! REASONS: 1. Hampton Roads Economics Hampton Roads Economic Stats - 2004 Employment has Grown Faster in Hampton Roads Than In The U.S. and Virginia Since Late in 2000 Hampton Roads Has Been Buffered from Recession by Increases in Military Pay and Housing Allowances Median Family Income National Average $ 43,300 Chesapeake $ 55,900 Virginia Beach $ 60,611 Average MSA Military Pay $ 52,600 Estimated 53,000 Retired Military in HR RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST REASONS: 2. Hampton Roads Housing Demand Percent of Households That Purchased A Home in 2004 Compared To The Total Number of Households In The MSA RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST Charlotte NC MSA Raleigh/Durham MSA Total Closings Total Closings = 32,985 = 43,587 11 % of HH 8 % of HH Total Households = Total 273,561 Households = 506,000 Hampton Roads MSA REASONS: 3. Hampton Roads Housing Supply Total Closings = 28,630 5 % of HH Total Households = 581,578
Number of Homes Listed in December 1998-2004 and January 2005 RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 8582 6902 6449 5200 4082 2925 2764 2401 REASONS: 4. Effects of Interest Rates (Mortgage Instruments) 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2004 2005 Interest Rate Affect On Housing Affordability RESIDENTIAL HOUSING FORECAST 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 MI $39,704 $42,448 $51,000 $53,900 $56,302 $56,624 IR 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 5.25% 6.0% = = = = = = TM $154,000 $173,000 210,000 $260,000 $300,000 $275,000 With Down Payment $375,000 Interest Only $400,000 Interest Only W/ Down Payment $500,000 REASONS: 5. Military Influence Defense Spending In Billions 1990-2005 New Construction Closings By Price Points 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 417 420 370 3500 3000-2209 298 295 270 258 238 230 223 218 203 219 221 291 329 355.1 379.9 320 270 220 170 120 70 2500 2000 1500 1000 500-222 +1105 +1056 +439 +250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20-30 0 100K 100K-199K 200-299K 300K-399K 400K-499K 500K + 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Industrial Market Presented by Abe Ellis 2005 ODU Real Estate Review Industrial Market Forecast Presented By: R.L. Abe Ellis, SIOR Vice President / Industrial Specialist Thalhimer / Cushman & Wakefield SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL OF OUR REPORTERS: Advantis GVA Ken Benassi, SIOR Trip Ferguson Michael Shapiro NAI Harvey Lindsay Bobby Beasley Charles Dickinson Billy King, SIOR Chip Worley CB Richard Ellis R. Worth Remick Sperry Van Ness Jonathan Guion, SIOR Joyce Hartman 2004 Summary of Data Thalhimer / Cushman & Wakefield Betsi Bartee Ron Biesecker Christine Kaempfe Patrick Mumey, SIOR Bobby Phillips Dexter Street, Portsmouth, Virginia 2004 Key Industrial Sales
Suffolk Shell Building Continental Pickett s Line Road Newport News Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk What Was New In 2004? Stihl, International Parkway, Virginia Beach Pro-Pak, Taylor Farm Road, Virginia Beach
Taylor Farm Industrial Development SARA LEE EXPANSION Triumph Industrial Center, Suffolk What s New for 2005? BRIDGEWAY COMMERCE PARK Maersk Grows in Portsmouth
ASHLEY CAPITAL Hampton Roads from a Regional and a National Comparison Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Retail Market Presented by Blount Hunter H. Blount Hunter Retail & Real Estate Research Co. RETAIL SALES GROWTH RETAIL SALES GROWTH Southside: Expect to surpass $10.0 Billion Peninsula: Approaching $4.5 Billion Steady increases during military deployment very different from Gulf War experience in early 1990s 2004: Market caught its breath 2005-2006: significant new development $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Southside Peninsula
RETAIL OVERVIEW 46 million SF GLA (shopping centers) 30 million SF Southside (65 percent) 16 million SF Peninsula (35 percent) Square footage and population are balanced within region Region has 29 SF per capita compared to national average of 22 SF MARKET DYNAMICS CONSTRUCTION: DOWN NEW TENANTS: DOWN ABSORPTION: DOWN BIG BOX VACANCY: DOWN OCCUPANCY: UP RENT: UP AVERAGE RENT NEW CONSTRUCTION $20.00 800000 749000 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $13.46 $13.88 $13.18 $13.36 2003 2004 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 419500 271600 330000 185000 456600 2003 2004 $0.00 Southside Peninsula 0 Southside Peninsula Total SPACE ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 419100 412000 341700 84300 831000 426000 2003 2004 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.105 0.089 0.126 0.104 0.119 0.094 2003 2004 0 Southside Peninsula Total 0.0% Southside Peninsula Total
VACANCY BY PRODUCT TYPE BIG BOX VACANCY 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.098 Neighborhood 0.127 Community 0.066 Regional 0.135 Power 0.049 Freestanding 0.037 Specialty 0 0 Festival Outlet 2.6 million SF Big Box vacancy 61 percent of total retail vacancy Disproportionate problem on Peninsula 43 percent of big box vacancy is on Peninsula 69 percent of Peninsula s vacancy is in big boxes Reflects 30 percent drop in vacancy from 2003 Absorption: re-leasing and re-use BIG BOX VACANCY NOTABLE SALES IN 2004 Vacant Square Feet 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Big Box Vacancy per Square Foot 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Southside Peninsula TOTAL Greenbrier Mall sold (again) for $102 million or the equivalent of $115 PSF Smaller centers throughout the market generally sold for $70 - $95 PSF SWEET SPOTS EYE ON THE MARKET Sweet Spots exist throughout the region: Williamsburg Northern Newport News Coliseum Central Northern Suffolk/Isle of Wight/Route 17 Pembroke/Town Center Victory Crossing/Midtown in Portsmouth Downtown Norfolk/Ghent Greenbrier Nationally and locally, department stores will be under pressure to perform More regional shopping centers will add non-traditional uses and anchors to increase their appeal Lifestyle centers continue to be the project du jour; strong co-tenancy of retailers, restaurants, and entertainment is critical for success
EYE ON THE MARKET Suffolk doesn t have an emerging central place for shopping center development Williamsburg is getting broader retail offering just not in mall format Workhorse retail areas such as Janaf and Coliseum are being overlooked despite strong sales and new investments Town Center s challenge is to become more than a restaurant park EYE ON THE MARKET Lord & Taylor s departure provides good merchandising opportunity for Lynnhaven MacArthur Center s sales continue to rise opportunities exist for enhanced tenant quality and third anchor Northern Newport News will soon surpass Greenbrier as region s highest density retail node THANK YOU! Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Presented by: The Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Real Estate Centers University of Pennsylvania Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center at Wharton University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics Virginia Commonwealth University Virginia Real Estate Center Virginia Tech University Virginia Center for Housing Research Old Dominion University Center for Real Estate and Economic Development Johns Hopkins University Allan L. Berman Real Estate Institute University of Connecticut Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies Executive Committee Ron Bray Craig Cope John Crunkleton Tom Dillon Brian Dundon Joan Gifford Cliff Moore Jonathan Guion Warren Harris Joyce Hartman Andrew Keeney Billy King John Lombard Van Rose Brad Sanford Sponsorship Committee Cliff Moore, Chair Larry Colorito
Programs Committee Joyce Hartman, Chair Jonathan Guion Ron Bray Stephanie Sanker Research & Editorial Committee Brian Dundon, Chair Beth Hancock Joy Learn Sandi Prestridge Maureen Rooks Lane Shea Brad Sanford Eva Wiggins Special thank you to Inside Business for their sponsorship over the past three years. Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast Presented by: The Center for Real Estate and Economic Development