Office March 2017 New York Monthly Market Update Leasing activity remains strong through February; Downtown off to best start in years Manhattan Class A Asking Rents Manhattan Class A Vacancy Rents $100.00 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 15.0% Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 $80.00 $60.00 10.0% $40.00 $20.00 5.0% $0.00 Manhattan Overall Midtown Midtown South Downtown 0.0% Manhattan Overall Midtown Midtown South Downtown Midtown Midtown South Downtown Brooklyn & LIC Midtown Class A vacancy dipped in early 2017, but is expected to rise in the coming months. The Midtown average asking rent continued to show modest growth, mostly due to the addition of new construction. Leasing activity picked up in February after a slow start last month. The TAMI sector accounts for 46 percent of leasing activity in Midtown South, followed by the FIRE sector, accounting for 21 percent, year to date. 'Year to date, Lower Manhattan has already recorded nearly two million square feet of leasing. Of Downtown firms that relocated from outside of Lower Manhattan since 2012, 49.4 percent are in the TAMI sector. In the most recent bigticket relocation from Manhattan, Bjarke Ingels Group signed a 50,000- square-foot lease at 45 Main Street in Dumbo. Over the past five years, roughly 4.2 million square feet of Brooklyn s industrial product has been either demolished or converted to higher use.
Vacancy Rate 9.85% 10.19% 10.23% 10.43% 10.74% 10.90% 11.58% 11.24% 11.36% 11.39% 11.06% 11.63% 11.59% 11.19% 11.71% 11.88% 11.88% 11.75% 2 Midtown Leasing activity remained elevated through February, with the contribution of two leases larger than 100,000 square feet in Midtown. Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel renewed 265,000 square feet at 1177 Avenue of the Americas. As part of the renewal, the law firm is downsizing by 50,000 square feet. Tommy Hilfiger signed a lease to relocate to 196,792 square feet at 285 Madison Avenue from 601 West 26th Street in Chelsea. Mostly as a result of new construction and top-tier space returning to the market, the Midtown Class A average asking rent increased 1.0 percent over the month to $82.18 per square foot. Despite this increase, the Midtown Class A average asking rent has increased only 2.7 percent year over year, well below the historical average annual growth rate. The overall average asking rent recorded slightly higher growth of 1.2 percent from January to February (2.8 percent year over year) to $75.83 per square foot. Other notable leasing activity in Midtown included Wells Fargo s renewal and expansion of 49,000 square feet at 280 Park Avenue and Robins Kaplan s sublease of 38,000 square feet at 399 Park Avenue from Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer. The Midtown Class A vacancy rate increased slightly month over month to 11.2 percent from 11.1 percent in January following two consecutive months of decline. The overall Midtown vacancy rate held steady at 10.4 percent month over month. Midtown Class A vacancy dipped in early 2017, but is expected to rise in the coming months 12% 11% 10% 9% 8%
3 Midtown South Following a quiet January, leasing activity picked up in February for Midtown South. Despite the increase in activity, no leases over 50,000 square feet were signed. The largest transaction of the month was a renewal by Bumble & Bumble, a make-up company and division of Estée Lauder, for 41,210 square feet at 412 West 14th Street in the Meatpacking District. The next largest lease was a renewal for 33,250 square feet by Pace Editions at 44 West 18th Street. Real estate firm Compass expanded its presence at 90 Fifth Avenue by 25,204 square feet. Legal services firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan renewed its lease for 23,351 square feet at 51 Madison Avenue. Midtown South rents remained stable month over month. Overall asking rents decreased marginally by $0.09 per square foot. Class A asking rents remained almost unchanged, dropping from $82.04 per square foot to $81.83 per square foot as new construction and renovated product on the market pushed rents to record levels. Class A vacancy increased, primarily due to a large-block availability of 212,500 square feet at 150 Fifth Avenue, to 9.3 percent from 8.9 percent. Overall vacancy increased by 20 percentage points to 8.2 percent this month. Leasing activity continues to be diversified but remains highly reliant on the TAMI sector which accounted for 46 percent of leasing activity year to date in Midtown South. The FIRE sector follows TAMI with a 21 percent share of leasing activity this year. With tech employment growth and venture capital funding having tapered off in 2016, TAMI leasing has slowed in Midtown South. TAMI accounts for less than 50 percent of leasing activity to date in Midtown South vs. last year when the sector accounted for 86 percent of transactions through the same period. 46% The TAMI sector accounts for 46% of total leasing activity in Midtown South year to date
4 Downtown Lower Manhattan leasing activity continued its impressive pace in February. Year to date, the market has already recorded nearly two million square feet of leasing activity. To put this figure in perspective, Lower Manhattan recorded just 4.3 million square feet of leasing activity in all of 2016. In the largest new lease of the month, Spotify signed for 378,000 square feet at Four World Trade Center, along with additional expansion rights. The music streaming firm more than tripled its Manhattan footprint in the headquarters relocation from 620 Avenue of the Americas. Other large leases signed in February include AON Insurance and beauty product manufacturer New Avon, LLC. The firms signed on for 203,000 and 91,116 square feet, respectively, at 1 Liberty Plaza. Financial services firm Tullett Prebon also signed a large lease taking 128,000 square feet at 200 Vesey Street in Brookfield Place in a relocation from 199 Water Street. The large leases signed in February, while impressive on their own, are indicative of a larger trend in Lower Manhattan. Of Downtown firms that relocated from outside of Lower Manhattan since 2012, 49.4 percent are in the TAMI sector. Conversely, 49.3 percent of existing occupiers who either renewed, expanded, or relocated within Downtown during that time are FIRE sector tenants. This means that creative sector tenants are continually drawn to Lower Manhattan from Midtown and Midtown South, while companies in more traditional industries are remaining Downtown. This type of diversified growth helped push the overall vacancy rate down 70 basis points in February, from 11.0 percent in January to 10.3 percent. In the Class A market, which accounted for an overwhelming 93 percent of 2017 leasing activity, the current vacancy rate is just 9.3 percent. This represents a 730-basis-point decline from a peak of 16.6 percent in the second quarter of 2013. Class A average asking rents declined to $61.90 per square foot. This is largely due to strong Class A leasing activity that has taken high-priced space off the market. Three of the five largest Downtown leases in 2017 took place in the World Trade Center submarket, where average asking rents of $73.84 per square foot represent a 19-percent premium over the Downtown Class A market as a whole. Gov'ment, 1.6% FIRE, 4.9% Retail Trade, 12.3% New entrants to Downtown (2012-present) Other, 17.4% Healthcare/ Education/ Non-profit, 14.4% TAMI, 49.4% Half of all new entrants to Downtown are in the TAMI sector, reflecting the growing diversity of the market.
5 Submarket statistics Class A Class B Overall Inventory Vacancy Rate Asking Rent (p.s.f.) Inventory Vacancy Rate Asking Rent (p.s.f.) Inventory Vacancy Rate Asking Rent (p.s.f.) Midtown Columbus Circle 17,313,834 8.8% $75.67 6,534,129 5.4% $54.52 23,847,963 7.9% $71.69 Grand Central 40,335,682 13.7% $73.72 31,548,209 8.2% $55.84 71,883,891 11.3% $68.26 Penn Plaza / Garment 19,780,090 11.0% $75.09 27,803,067 8.4% $56.88 47,583,157 9.4% $65.69 Plaza District 86,882,389 11.3% $90.69 15,038,075 8.1% $58.52 101,920,464 10.9% $87.62 Times Square 31,960,829 9.0% $79.52 8,263,138 14.6% $59.88 40,223,967 10.2% $73.74 Total 196,272,824 11.2% $82.18 89,186,618 8.6% $57.14 285,459,442 10.4% $75.83 Midtown South Chelsea 14,588,469 10.1% $81.95 8,533,264 8.7% $55.75 23,121,733 9.6% $73.25 Gramercy Park 12,748,890 7.2% $76.63 8,823,905 4.2% $67.26 21,572,795 6.0% $74.02 Greenwich Village 1,915,423 3.8% $108.96 3,769,111 3.9% $65.39 5,684,534 3.9% $82.49 Hudson Square 7,275,495 13.0% $82.26 3,371,436 5.1% $58.17 10,646,931 10.5% $78.54 SoHo 1,865,718 9.0% $94.02 2,869,689 13.7% $71.63 4,735,407 11.9% $78.72 Total 38,393,995 9.3% $81.83 27,367,405 6.7% $62.26 65,761,400 8.2% $75.43 Downtown Financial District 14,308,239 8.1% $58.07 23,524,171 13.0% $49.70 37,832,410 11.2% $52.05 Tribeca / City Hall 4,372,411 3.4% $60.00 13,467,425 11.5% $51.35 17,839,836 9.5% $52.25 Water Street Corridor 21,466,270 11.5% $54.80 1,534,114 2.9% $44.91 23,000,384 10.9% $54.62 World Trade Center 21,264,366 9.0% $73.84 0 0.0% $0.00 21,264,366 9.0% $73.84 Total 61,411,286 9.3% $61.90 38,525,710 12.1% $50.14 99,936,996 10.3% $56.84 Manhattan 296,078,105 10.5% $78.40 155,079,733 9.1% $55.57 451,157,838 10.1% $71.49 Closed leasing transactions Size (s.f.) Tenant Address Submarket Type 402,000 Royal Bank of Canada 200 Vesey Street World Trade Center Renewal 378,000 Spotify 4 World Trade Center World Trade Center New 265,000 Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel 1177 Avenue of the Americas Times Square Renewal 203,000 AON 1 Liberty Plaza Financial District New
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