Town of Fort Erie Community & Development Services Our Focus: Your Future Prepared for Council-in-Committee Report No. CDS-011-08 Agenda Date February 4,2008 File No. 350204/350308 Subject 2007 YEAR END HOUSING MONITORING AND SUBDIVISION STATUS REPORTS Recommendations THAT Report CDS-011-08 regarding the 2007 Housing Monitoring Report and 2007 Year-End Subdivision Status Report be received for information purposes and circulated to the appropriate agencies and stakeholder groups listed in the report. Relation to Council s 2007-2010 Corporate Strategic Plan Priority: Development and Land Use, Financial Stewardship Goal: A.5, C5 Initiative:A.5.1, C.5.1 List of Stakeholders Town of Fort Erie Regional Municipality of Niagara Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corporation Home Builders in Fort Erie & Niagara Prepared by: Submitted by: Approved by: Original Signed D.Heyworth, MCIP,RPP, Senior Policy Planner Original Signed R. Mostacci, MCIP, RPP Director, Community & Development Services Original Signed Harry Schlange, MBA Chief Administrative Officer
Community & Development Services Page 2 of 5 Report No. CDS-011-08 Purpose of Report The purpose of this report is to present the findings of the Town s annual Housing Monitoring Program, and to illustrate how it relates to the recommendations of the 2003 Municipal Housing Statement (MHS) and the Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment (ULNA). The 2007 Year-End Subdivision Status Report and the 2007 Housing Monitoring Report are attached as appendices to this Report. Analysis In keeping with Provincial Policy, it is necessary to regularly monitor the Town s housing supply. The purpose of the Housing Monitoring program is to track the supply of housing and land for residential purposes, in order to accurately address future urban land needs. The 2003 MHS, adopted by Council on February 10, 2004, established an annual housing target of 165 units per year. Although the current Official Plan identifies a housing mix of 70% low density, 15% medium density and 15% high-density units, the 2003 MHS recommended a revised housing mix to better reflect recent building trends. The 2003 MHS updated housing mix is 80% low density, 10% medium density and 10% highdensity units, and this has therefore been used in the 2007 Housing Monitoring Report. A five year view of the Municipal Housing Statement will be initiated after the region prescribes density and intensification targets to local municipalities upon completion of the Regional Growth Management Strategy. The Housing Monitoring Report provides background information used in the development of Neighbourhood Plans as well as for consideration in the formation of a Development Charges By-law. To properly assess Fort Erie s housing supply, the Housing Monitoring Program has been divided into two components, namely, a Housing Monitoring Report and a Subdivision Status Report. Both are needed to address Provincial Growth & Settlement Policies. The Housing Monitoring Report focuses on the number of housing starts over the past year as well as the potential supply of housing in terms of units and years of supply available. The Subdivision Status Report focuses on the actual subdivision and permit activity and the number of units in the various stages of the development process. 2007 Housing Starts In view of the last 10 years, 2007 wasn t a typical year for housing development in Fort Erie. A total of 163 units were constructed. This figure is well above the ten year average, the highest on record since 1993 and in line with the Municipal Housing Statement target of 165 units per year. The 2007 total represents an increase of 21 units overall from 2006.
Community & Development Services Page 3 of 5 Report No. CDS-011-08 The Year End Subdivision Status Report indicates that the total of 163 housing units are composed of 144 low-density units (single-detached and semi-detached dwellings) and 19 multiple units (townhouse dwellings). Although the Fort Erie housing market has been dominated by an almost exclusive demand for single detached dwellings, there are signs the trend is changing. This is reflected in the overall percentage of multiple units in combined Registered and Draft Approved Plans at 16.9%. This housing mix compares well with the combined Municipal Housing Statement targets of 10% medium and 10% high density. Given Fort Erie s existing unique character, higher density development will only occur in appropriate areas, preferably identified through the Neighbourhood Plan process. The last year a high-density project (apartment dwelling units) was constructed was in 1993. A trend towards more multiple units is occurring because of shifting demographic profile and increased interest to the age in place. Furthermore, Provincial Policy requires urban lands to be used efficiently so there is an onus to ensure an appropriate mix of housing types occurs through the planning process. For example multiple unit development provides a desirable housing form for the growing seniors sector. The Town will need to visibly promote town homes and apartments in order to sustain the trend in medium density housing. Attractive urban design will play an integral part in integrating this form of housing in to the community. Overall Housing Supply Using figures from the 2007 Subdivision Status Report and targets from the Municipal Housing Statement, Registered and Draft Approved Plans provide an estimated 10.3- year supply of units, exceeding Provincial Policy supply requirements The Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment (ULNA), approved by Council in September 2005,was prepared to address urban boundary expansion requests received through the Official Plan update process and to determine available urban land supplies for orderly planned growth and development. Based on this information, the Town conservatively possesses over a 32-year supply of lands designated for residential purposes, based on a 200 unit per year development rate. The ten year average rate of residential development including 2007 is 138 units per year. Financial/Staffing Implications The effect of new residential development on the local economy and Municipal finances fluctuates with local building activity. The construction of 163 dwelling units in 2007 represents over a $30 million investment in the local economy as well as assessment growth. Residential construction in 2007 generated approximately $958,000 in Town development charges to be re-invested in growth infrastructure.
Community & Development Services Page 4 of 5 Report No. CDS-011-08 Policies Affecting Proposal The Town s Official Plan establishes specific requirements to ensure that there is an adequate supply of land available for future housing needs. In particular, it requires that a ten-year supply of lands for residential purposes be maintained and designated in the Official Plan. There should be a three-year supply of draft-approved and registered plans of subdivision maintained for residential purposes. The best way to ensure targets are met is to assess the land requirements for development through the completion of annual Housing Monitoring Reports and periodic update of the Municipal Housing Statements. In addition, the ULNA can be updated every 5 years in concert with the Official Plan update. Comments from Relevant Departments/Community and Corporate Partners This report and the Housing Monitoring Report will be circulated to the following relevant stakeholder groups and agencies: Regional Municipality of Niagara Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (Provincial Planning Services Branch) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Niagara Real Estate Board Niagara Home Builders Association District School Board of Niagara Niagara Catholic District School Board Owners of Registered and Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corporation Alternatives Not Applicable Conclusion The Town is in compliance with Provincial policy related to the supply of designated residential land, as well as Registered and Draft Approved plans. The number of lowdensity units in Registered Plans and Draft Approved plans is on target with the 80% recommended by the Municipal Housing Statement (MHS). Medium density multiple units are within the range of the combined MHS targets for medium and high density development in draft approved plans. This reflects the changing housing market and attempts in meeting Provincial Policy for a variety of housing types and efficient use of urban land. The Town should monitor the supply of land available for medium to highdensity development to ensure that there is a broad range of housing alternatives within the Town.
Community & Development Services Page 5 of 5 Report No. CDS-011-08 Attachments Appendix 1 2007 Housing Monitoring Report Appendix 2 2007 Year-End Subdivision Status Report
APPENDIX "1" TO CDS-011-08 FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 1 of 9 INTRODUCTION The purpose of the Housing Monitoring Report is to illustrate recent residential development activity and to identify the Town s current residential land inventory. This report provides a summary of the number of units available on Registered Plans, the number of units proposed in Draft Plans, the number of units proposed in plans pending draft approval and the number of potential units that can be developed on the Town s designated urban residential lands. Housing data are based on housing starts originating from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data. This ensures that Town information is consistent with Regional, Provincial and National information. BACKGROUND The Town has established an annual housing monitoring program in accordance with the provisions of the Town Official Plan and Provincial Policy. In 2004 the Town also adopted a new Municipal Housing Statement. In September 2005, Council adopted a Revised Urban Land Needs Assessment which form the basis for housing policies contained within the Proposed Draft Official Plan. The data from the MHS and the ULNA also form the basis for the information contained in the 2006 Housing Monitoring Report. As well, Community and Development Services produces regular Subdivision Status Reports to track housing activity in the Town based on housing starts. Land Budget This Report addresses the supply of future housing units by focusing on the following elements: housing activity by area; number of available units in Registered Plans; the number of proposed units in approved Draft Plans; the number of proposed units in plans in process and pending approval; and, the number of potential units on undeveloped designated residental land. HOUSING MONITORING Housing Targets New housing targets are established in the 2003 Municipal Housing Statement based on historical trends as well as projected population and household growth. These targets are an estimate of future housing needs in the Town. The total annual housing target is 165 units per year.
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 2 of 9 Table No. 1 compares the housing target to 2006 housing starts. Table No. 1 Annual Housing Targets vs. 2007 Housing Starts Annual Housing Targets 2007 Housing Starts Units Mix Units Mix Low Density 132 80.0% 144 * 88.3% Medium Density (Multiple Units) 16.5 10.0% 19 11.7% High Density 16.5 10.0% 0 0% TOTAL 165 100.0% 163 * 100.0% Source: Housing starts for 2007 based on Town of Fort Erie Building Department data. * Includes 16 units in Rural areas. Historical Housing Starts, 10-Year Period (1998 2007) Historically, housing activity in Fort Erie has focused on low-density dwellings. Over the last ten years, low density dwellings accounted for 94% of all new housing, averaging 129 units per year as illustrated in Table No. 2. In 2007, a total of 163 housing starts were recorded in the Town representing 98.8% of the overall total annual housing target. This represents an increase in the total number of dwelling units constructed compared to last year, significantly exceeds the 10 year average and is only marginally lower than the Municipal Housing Statement target. Table No. 2 Housing Starts, 1998 2007 YEAR Low Density Medium Density High Density Total 1998 113 (100%) 0 0 113 1999 152 (96%) 6 (4%) 0 158 2000 117 (100%) 0 0 117 2001 123 (100%) 0 0 123 2002 122 (95.3%) 6 (4.7%) 0 128 2003 134 (84.8%) 24 (15.2%) 0 158 2004 141 (96.5%) 5 (3.5%) 0 146 2005 125 (96.15%) 5 (3.85%) 0 130 2006 123 (86.6%) 19 (13.4%) 0 142 2007 144 (88.3%) 19 (11.7%) 0 163 TOTAL 1294 84 0 1378 AVERAGE 129 (94%) 8.4 (6%) 0 138 * TARGET 132 (80%) 16.5 (10%) 16.5 (10%) 165 Source: Town of Fort Erie Building Department and CMHC * Number rounding
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 3 of 9 LAND BUDGET Registered Plans of Subdivision As of December 31, 2007, there were potentially 435 units available in Registered Plans of which 429 were for low density units (singles and semis). The remainder constitutes a supply of 6 medium density units. The breakdown by unit type is presented in Table No. 3. Table No. 3 Housing Supply In Registered Plans By Unit Type Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply ** Low Density 429 (98.6% of supply) * 3.25 years Medium Density (Multiple Units) 6 (1.3% of supply) 0.36 years High Density 0 No supply Total 435 2.63 * Includes 13 lots situated outside the urban boundary. ** Based on the Municipal Housing Statement targets. As shown above, there is a 3.25 year supply of low density units, and a 0.36 year supply of medium density units within registered plans of subdivision. There are currently no sites designated for high density development within registered plans of subdivision. Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision As of December 31, 2007, there was a potential of 1269 units of all housing types within Draft Approved Plans of Subdivision. The 986 low density units (singles and semis) within Draft Approved Plans account for 77.7% of the total unit supply. There are 283 medium density units (22.3%) and no high density units. The breakdown by the supply of Draft Approved units by unit type is presented in Table No. 4. Table No. 4 Housing Supply In Draft Approved Plans Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply ** Low Density 986 (77.7% of supply) * 7.5 years Medium Density (Multiple Units) 283 (22.3 % of supply) 17.15 years High Density 0 No supply Total 1269 * Includes 92 lots located outside the urban area boundary. ** Based on Municipal Housing Statement targets.
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 4 of 9 Table No. 5 Housing Supply On Registered and Draft Approved Plans Status Low Density * Medium Density High Density Total Registered 429 6 0 435 Draft Appr. 986 283 0 1269 Total 1415(83.1%) 289(16.9%) 0 1704 Years Supply ** 10.72 years 17.5 years 0 10.32 years * Includes 105 lots outside the urban area boundary. ** Based on Municipal Housing Statement targets. Based on the MHS targets, the Registered and Draft Approved Plans represent a 10.32 year supply of low density units and a 17.5 year supply of medium density units. There is no supply of high density units in draft approved plans. It is noted that some of the supply in this category cannot proceed to the Registration/development stage due to servicing constraints. Registered Plan Summary District Number Of Vacant Units Remaining Low Medium (Multiple Units) High Total Fort Erie/Crescent Park 118 0 0 118 Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder 259 0 0 259 Bay Stevensville 39 6 0 45 Douglastown 0 0 0 0 Outside Urban area 13 0 0 13 Total 429 6 0 435
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 5 of 9 Draft Approved Plans Summary District Low Number Of Units Proposed Medium (Multiple Units) Fort Erie/Crescent Park 416 79 0 495 Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder Bay 133 166 0 299 Stevensville 115 8 0 123 Douglastown 230 30 0 260 Outside Urban Boundary 92 0 0 92 Total 986 283 0 1269 High Total Pending Plans of Subdivision (not approved) This category includes conceptual plans which have been informally presented to the Department and pending plans in process which have not yet received Draft Approval. As of December 31, 2006, there were 1023 potential units of all types within the Pending Plans category. Of this total, 686 were for low density housing (singles and semis), which accounted for 67% of the supply. There were 337 medium density units, accounting for 33 % of the supply and no high density units. The breakdown by the supply of units within Conceptual plans by unit type is presented in Table No. 5. Table No. 5 Housing Supply In Pending Plans Unit Type Number of Units Years Supply Low Density 530 (63% of supply) 4.02 years Medium Density 317 (37 % of supply) 19.2 years High Density 0 No supply Total 847 5.13 There is a 5.13 year supply of low density units based on the MHS target of 132 units per annum and a 19.2 year supply of medium density units based on a target of 16.5 units per annum. There is no supply of high density units within Pending Plans.
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 6 of 9 Pending Plan Summary District Number Of Units Proposed Low Medium High Total Fort Erie/Crescent Park 470 305 0 775 Ridgeway/Crystal Beach/Thunder Bay 31 12 0 43 Stevensville 0 0 0 0 Douglastown 10 0 0 10 Outside Urban Boundary 19 0 0 19 Total 530 317 0 847 REVISED 2005 URBAN LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT In September 2005, Council approved the Revised 2005 Urban Lands Needs Assessment (ULNA) as a means of further refining the findings of the MHS. The ULNA is the process by which the Town allocates land uses by scrutinizing all existing designations based on need and compliance with Provincial Policy. The approach taken in completing the ULNA was to determine the Town s urban land requirements based on the population growth to around 16,750 dwelling units and a corresponding population of around 38,280 by the year 2026. The Assessment conservatively scrutinized the Town s residential land supply by utilizing the findings and recommendations of the MHS and the Natural Heritage Study to determine future urban land requirements and urban growth areas, as well as utilizing a residential building permit allocation of 200 units/year for the urban area. Inaddition to providing the residential land supply of Registered and Draft Approved subdivisions, the ULNA also looked at the potential units from infill (severance parcels), as well as other vacant residentially designated lands that included the Pending Plans. The following Table identifies the potential number of units from these lands:
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 7 of 9 Table 2.3- Table Depicting The Data And Calculations To Determine Available Units From Infilling Lots And Vacant Residential Lands. (2005 Urban Land Needs assessment) Communities # Of Infill Parcels Infill Areas (ha.) * Potential # Of Infill Units ** Vacant Residential Area (ha.) *** Potential #Of Vacant Residential Units **** Total Units Douglastown Stevensville CB/R/T ***** Fort Erie 14 19 262 264 2.5 38 12.5 187 225 5.18 77 11.5 172 249 71.2 1068 104.7 1571 2639 77.9 1168 141.03 2115 3283 Totals 559 156.78 2351 269.73 4045 6396 Notes: * Infill areas represent areas with an existing dwelling that have severance potential. An area of 0.067 ha. (60x120 ft. lot) has been removed from the calculated area for each existing unit. ** The number of infilling units was calculated based on a density of 15 units/ha. or 0.067 ha./ unit (60x 120 ft. lot) on the basis that few areas would require new roads. *** The vacant residential area excludes Environmental Protection Areas and Locally Significant Natural Areas, as well as lots in Registered and draft approved Plans of Subdivision. The serviceability of these lands was considered and is addressed in this Section. **** The number of units that can potentially be accommodated on vacant residential lands was calculated using a gross density of 15 units/ ha. (6.1 units/acre). ***** Denotes Crystal Beach/Ridgeway/Thunder Bay.
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 8 of 9 The Town s ULNA conservatively calculated net residential land requirements as set out below. Net Supply Based on the preceding analysis, the Town s urban land requirements to the year 2026 are as follows: Land Use Hectares % Housing (including roads) 207.01 80 Recreational / Community 30.9 12 Utilities 6.23 2 Contingency 15.57 6 Urban Land Need 259.71 100 From-2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment Based on the foregoing, a total of c. 259.71 hectares of designated vacant residential lands are needed to satisfy the Town s residential growth requirements to the year 2026 and comply with Provincial Policy. The residential land requirement provides for an annual absorption rate of 12.99 hectares per year for 20 years. As noted earlier, the Town currently possesses 269.73 hectares of vacant residential lands within the Town s urban Areas. Accordingly, based on the absorption rates for the residential lands requirement, the Town currently possesses a 20.76 year supply of vacant residentially designated lands. There is in addition a 7.1 year supply in approved plans at 200 units per year. It is important to note the 940 infill units (only 40% of all infill units) represents an additional long term housing supply. If the 200 units per year were to take place only on these infill parcels there would be an additional 4.7 year housing supply. In total, the Town possesses a conservative 32 year residential land supply.
FORT ERIE 2007 HOUSING MONITORING REPORT Page 9 of 9 CONCLUSION This Housing Monitoring Report combined with data from the Revised 2005 Urban Land Needs Assessment demonstrates the Town is meeting the Provincial objectives being: 1. Maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years through residential intensification and redevelopment, and if necessary, lands which are designated and available for residential development; and 2. Maintain at all times where new development is to occur, land with servicing capacity sufficient to provide at least a 3 year supply of residential units available through lands suitably zoned to facilitate residential intensification and redevelopment, and land in registered and draft approved plans. 3. The Town actually has over a 10 year supply of lands in registered and draft plan approved status alone. With respect to unit type, there is a slightly higher number of low density units in Registered and Draft Plan approved categories than the 80% recommended by the 2003 MHS. Although there are no high density developments in Registered and Draft Approved Plans, the Town has approximately a 17% supply of medium density development in Registered and Draft Approved Plans only slightly below the Municipal Housing Statement target of 20% medium and high density combined. The Town should monitor this trend, and be sure that there is an adequate supply of land available for medium to high density development,especially through the Neighbourhood Plan process, in order to assure a broad range of housing alternatives within the Town. The Town will need to visibly promote town homes and apartments in order to sustain the trend in medium density housing. Attractive urban design will play an integral part in integrating this form of housing in to the community.