World Bank - Grant Funding Request (GFR)

Similar documents
The impacts of land title registration: evidence from a pilot in Rwanda. Daniel Ali Klaus Deininger Markus Goldstein Preliminary: Please do not cite

Motivation: Do land rights matter?

The Effects of Land Title Registration on Tenure Security, Investment and Production

Evaluating the award of Certificates of Right of Occupancy in urban Tanzania

Low Cost Titling in Africa

Securing Rural Land Rights: Experimental Evidence from the Plans Fonciers Ruraux in Benin

AN OVERVIEW OF LAND TOOLS IN SUB- SAHARAN AFRICA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty 2012

Results Framework for LAPs Household-level Impacts

Implementing Innovative Land Tenure Tools In East-Africa: SWOT-Analysis Of Land Governance

GLTN Tools and Approaches in Support of Land Policy Implementation in Africa

Advancing Methodology on Measuring Asset Ownership from a Gender Perspective

UN-HABITAT SCROLL OF HONOUR AWARD CALL FOR NOMINATIONS

Improving Access to Land and strengthening land rights of women in Africa

LAND REFORM IN MALAWI

EXPERIENCES FROM THE KENYAN PROCESS

Key Results of ADB Pilot Countries

Pilot Surveys on Measuring Asset Ownership and Entrepreneurship from a Gender Perspective

Land Reform Development in Rwanda. Kagera TAMP Lessons learnt. Workshop - Entebbe, Nov.2005

LAND ADMINISTRATION DEVELOPMENTS IN RWANDA

AN ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNAL PROPERTY INSTITUTIONS. revised April 2002

Cadastral Template 2003

CONCEPT NOTE EFFECTIVE LAND ADMINISTRATION IN AFRICA TRAINING WORKSHOP

REPORT 2014/050 INTERNAL AUDIT DIVISION. Audit of United Nations Human Settlements Programme operations in Sri Lanka

A Diagnostic Checklist for Business Inspection

CUSTOMARY LAND RIGHTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT

THE LAND GOVERNANCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (LGAF): GLOBAL EXPERIENCE & LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE PHILIPPINES

TCP PROJECT AGREEMENT SUPPORT GOVERNMENT IN FORMULATION OF A NATIONAL AND GENDER SENSITIVE LAND POLICY GUIDED BY THE VGGT PRINCIPLES

Mark Napier, Remy Sietchiping, Caroline Kihato, Rob McGaffin ANNUAL WORLD BANK CONFERENCE ON LAND AND POVERTY

Providing access to land: challenges and solutions Lessons learnt by members of the International Land Coalition

Housing Need in South Worcestershire. Malvern Hills District Council, Wychavon District Council and Worcester City Council. Final Report.

Valuation Methodology of Unregistered Properties in East Africa

ROLE OF SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT IN SOCIAL HOUSING. Section 26 of the Constitution enshrines the right to housing as follows:

Measuring SDG Indicator 5.a.1. Background Paper

R E Q U E S T F O R P R O P O S A L S

REPORT ON UN-HABITAT ACTIVITIES REGARDING INDIGENOUS ISSUES

CONSULTANCY JOB OPENING Issued on: April 5 th 2016 ORGANIZATIONAL LOCATION:

Establishing a Land policy reform and GPS Technology implementation in Burkina Faso

Applying a Community-Based Approach to Tenure Reform: Experiences from Northern Mozambique

LOW-COST LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

GLTN LAND TOOLS -SOME EXAMPLES-

Innovative approaches to Land Governance Programme management; a Contractors View. Clive English & Owen Edwards

Land Tools for Tenure Security for All

Participants of the Ministerial Meeting on Housing and Land Management on 8 October 2013 in Geneva

Ethiopia: Land Investment for Transformation (LIFT) Programme

Institutional Analysis of Condominium Management System in Amhara Region: the Case of Bahir Dar City

Support to Implementation of Multipurpose Cadastral Information system in Vietnam

Results of UN-Habitat s work in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Rwanda

Assets, Regeneration & Growth Committee 11 July Development of new affordable homes by Barnet Homes Registered Provider ( Opendoor Homes )

Land Administration Developments in Rwanda

RWANDA NATURAL RESOURCES AUTHORITY Department of Lands and Mapping

Assets, Regeneration & Growth Committee 17 March Development of new affordable homes by Barnet Homes Registered Provider ( Opendoor Homes )

SDG INDICATOR 5.a.1: recommended questions

Advancing Methodology on Measuring Asset Ownership from a Gender Perspective

Proposals for Best Practice

Key Concepts, Approaches and Tools for Strengthening Land Tenure Security

G8-Tanzania Land Transparency Partnership

A Study of Experiment in Architecture with Reference to Personalised Houses

WHAT IS AN APPROPRIATE CADASTRAL SYSTEM IN AFRICA?

PROGRAM PRINCIPLES. Page 1 of 20

THINK BIG do little. Start an avalanche

Fit-For-Purpose Land Administration: Guiding Principles FACILITATED BY:

Land Administration Projects Currently there are more than 70 land administration projects being implemented Many donors involved, including NGOs Thes

ENHANCING LAND TITLING AND REGISTRATION IN NIGERIA

THE APPLICATION OF GIS AND LIS Solutions and Experiences in East Africa. Lenny Kivuti

PROJECT INITIATION DOCUMENT

Rochford District Council Rochford Core Strategy - Statement on housing following revocation of East of England Plan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)

Resettlement Policy framework for the Albania s Improvement of the Management and Conditions of the Secondary and Local Roads Project

A Joint UN-Habitat GLTN and FIG session CoFLAS: Progress Report

Economic and Social Council 6 July 2018

SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING (SCOTLAND) BILL STAGE 1 REPORT

FIG-WB Forum on Land Administration

Scheme of Service. for. Housing Officers

Mandatory Requirement for Certification Bodies in Assessing Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) in New Planting Procedures

Challenges to Effective Land Governance in Trinidad and Tobago

Malawi: Lilongwe (Chinsapo & Mtandire)

Terms of Reference for the Regional Housing Affordability Strategy

Regulation update SE Smaller Housing Associations Seminar 8 July Steve Smedley HouseMark

Access to the Land Tenure Administration System in Rwanda and the Impacts of the System on Ordinary Citizens

Securing land rights in sub Saharan Africa

7 th international LANDNET Conference 5-7 October 2015, Ankara, Turkey. Land banks and land funds an overview and presentation of FAO publication

REFLECTION PAPER Land Police and Administration reform in Mozambique An economic view in GDP growth

Strengthening Property Rights in Pursuit of Poverty Reduction: Commentary on the 2010 Lesotho Land Reform Project

Land Information System as new instrument for Land Administration: Case Examples. Mike Cheremshynskyi Consultant, Land Administration Expert

Results of Central European Land Knowledge Center (CELK) Activities

Trinidad and Tobago Land Governance Assessment. Charisse Griffith-Charles

AFRICA REGIONAL NETOWORK

COUNTY GOVERNMENT OF LAMU Department of Land, Physical Planning, Infrastructure & Urban Development

MASS REGISTRATION OF LAND PARCELS USING FIT-FOR-PURPOSE LAND ADMINISTRATION: PROCEDURES AND METHODS

DEMAND FR HOUSING IN PROVINCE OF SINDH (PAKISTAN)

Developing Land Policy in a Post-Conflict Environment: The Case of Southern Sudan

The Governance of Land Use

Designing for transparency and participation in the Hellenic Cadastral Project

Terms of Reference for Town of Caledon Housing Study

Tracking the progress in land policy formulation in francophone Africa countries. Claire GALPIN, France

Household Welfare Effects of Low-cost Land Certification in Ethiopia

Proposal to Restructure

Asset valuation. Advancing Methodology on Measuring Asset Ownership from a Gender Perspective

THE CONTINUUM OF LAND RIGHTS

Transcription:

GFR 8331 - KCPII - Gendered impacts of low-cost land titling in a post-conflict environment: The case of Rwanda Team Leader : 00000072501 - Mr Klaus W. Deininger Summary Information Status Cleared TF Number/Status - Estimated Grant Start Date/ 07/15/2011 To 12/31/2012 Closing Date Grant Amount 150,000.00 USD Beneficiary Country World Implemented by Bank Executed IBRD/IDA Grant linked to P095390 - Land policies for growth Project Status : ACTV Product Line : RF Disbursing Fund Type Project/activity support TF Usage - Managing Unit 80025 - DECAR Responsible Cost Center 80025 - DECAR Window Manager Mr Ivar Cederholm Funding Window 0000005029 - KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGE PROGRAM II - THE POVERTY DYNAMICS & PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY Sub-Fund TF080756 - KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGE PROGRAM II - THE POVERTY DYNAMICS & PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY Trustee TF071173 - Knowledge for Change Program II - the Poverty Dynamics and Public Service Delivery Multi Donor Trust Fund Donor TF602001 - MULTIPLE DONORS Coterminus Staff Assignment No This GFR includes the following sections: Basic Data Info, Basic Data - TTL Comment, Description, Project Information, Program Specific, Confirmation. Internal Bank Report Page 1 of 13

Comments/Requests by TTL DESCRIPTION 1. What is the Development Objective (or main objective) of this Grant? Increased global demand for land and higher and more volatile food prices, together with the potential prospect of payments for environmental services, have translated into higher demand for land globally. To increase productivity and prevent that this pressure deprives the most vulnerable of their land, countries need to improve their land administration institutions. Given the complexities of land tenure in most African countries, a framework and guidelines have been developed and endorsed by African heads of State but their implementation needs to be guided by evidence-based monitoring. With a massive programme to register the country's estimated 11 million parcels at a cost well below traditional norms, Rwanda is a protagonist in this area. The activity will document and rigorously evaluate the Rwandan experience to demonstrate the potential of participatory and cost effective land titling to enhance investment, increase productivity of land use, reduce conflict, and empower women (see the attached MOU with the National Land Centre), thereby facilitating the adoption of such practices by a much wider range of countries. The main development objective of this grant is to evaluate the impact (differentiated by main socio-economic groups) and cost-effectiveness of the Rwanda program to (i) draw lessons that can be applied in other African countries; (ii) provide inputs into Rwanda's policy dialogue to improve outcomes for vulnerable groups and ensure sustainability of program effects; and (iii) establish an example of how rigorous impact evaluation can be conducted in this sector that could help inform other countries' approaches. 2. Summary description of Grant financed activities Rwanda's Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) identifies land registration as a critical element to improve productivity of land use, functioning of land markets, reduce conflicts, empower women, and improve overall governance. The Land Tenure Regularisation (LTR) program is a national program for first time registration of all the estimated 11 million land parcels in the country. This program is administered in a decentralized manner at a very low cost of USD 5 per parcel. To build on initial research that documented clear impacts on investment, female empowerment, and girls' inheritance, the World Bank designed a rigorous randomized impact evaluation of this exercise that will feed into an ESW to support the redesign of Rwanda's land policy and institutional framework, including the Organic Land Law (OLL) and provide rigorous research output. KCP funding is sought for the following activities: 1/ Data analysis of the nationally representative baseline survey (collected with DFID support in early 2011) The sample is composed of 3,600 households to be revisited in 100 sectors. In the absence of any detailed analysis of Rwanda's land sector thus far, the baseline survey will provide critical information on key parameters of land policy and a strong basis to explicitly link land policies to those of broader economic development in the country and contribute to the elaboration of the next poverty reduction and national development strategies. The sample size will allow generation of estimates that are representative at regional level. Analysis of the baseline data will focus on: (i) Factors increasing land-related investment and the productivity of land use: This will focus in particular on the extent to which fear of conflict and perceptions of tenure security affect investment and policy-relevant factors that might lead to such concerns. We will then explore how these affect productivity of land use to answer, among others, the question whether subdivision restrictions that prohibit subdivision below 1 hectare can be justified on economic grounds. (ii) Determinants of land rental and sales market operation: With one of the most active land markets in Africa, Internal Bank Report Page 2 of 13

Rwanda provides an ideal case to study determinants and impact of land market operation, in particular whether, e.g. as a consequence of market imperfections or tenure insecurity, land markets lead to distress sales or whether they offer a way for rural households to finance lumpy investments and start up non-agricultural enterprises. (iii) Impact of changes in inheritance legislation and family law: In the late 1990s, Rwanda changed both family law and inheritance legislation to ensure that females who are legally entitled to land will be able to enjoy it even if under customary arrangements, they would not have been entitled to it. The extent to which these provisions have actually been implemented and the impact of doign so on widows and girls as well as orphans and other vulnerable groups has not been studies. A detailed module included in the survey will allow us to assess the impact of such legislation on actual and planned inheritance as well as the effects of such asset ownership on economic outcomes (allocation of spending, participation in economic activities, female empowerment, etc.). Details are included in the matrix of the MOU with NLC that is attached to this proposal. 2/ Preparation and supervision of the endline survey Although DFID has committed funds for the data collection exercise, experience during the baseline survey has underlined the weak local capacities in Rwanda and the crucial need for external supervision both during the preparation of the survey (questionnaire development, training of enumerators) and during the implementation of data collection. Extra funds from KCP will enable to finance an experienced field coordinator (as well as potentially a research assistant) based in Kigali to supervise the agreed activities and built local capacities. 3/ Data analysis of the impact evaluation The project was piloted in four cells in both urban and rural settings. The pilot project was evaluated by the IE team using carefully created control and treatment groups based on discontinuities around the pilot cells' borders and satellite imagery that allow observations to be weighted based on their distance from the cell border. Results of the impact evaluation suggest that the LTR process produced a significant change in investment (maintenance and construction of soil conservation structures) and that these investments are being made for this generation, but also the next as there is a boost in projected land inheritance for children. LTR also improves access to land to women with certified marriage certificate, but those without marriage certificate (24% of women in couple in the rural areas) tend to be negatively affected underlying the need to understand the recordation of women's rights on land. LTR also tends to lower participation in land sales market, which might be related to the 1 ha min required size to allow for transaction, much larger than the average plot size (see attached policy note and presentation). The nationwide impact evaluation will provide robust results, on a basis of a nationally representative database and detailed questionnaires at the household and the community levels, by quantifying the immediate and short term benefits and costs of this low-cost land regularization intervention on a wide range of outcomes including: (i) tenure security, (ii) intra-household bargaining and protection of vulnerable groups, (iii) productivity of land use and land-related investment, (iv) land access and land market participation, (v) livelihood diversification as well as (vi) legal knowledge. In addition to looking at the average effect of the land titling program, the effects will be disaggregated by gender. In particular, the land law and other associated legislations significantly change women's access to property rights by increasing the rights that registered spouses have as well as increasing the share of inherited rights that go to female heirs. The nationally representative dataset will permit to deepen the understanding of women's vulnerability (in particular of unmarried women). Understanding the effects of these changes will provide critical inputs to the National Land Centre into designing complementary interventions to support the LTR activities and ensure sustainability (e.g. ex-post legal, gender-based), and will provide crucial information for the revision of the Organic Land Law. In addition, the data collected will constitute a strong basis of analysis to serve as a core input to the Land Policy ESW that was requested by GoR. 4/ Dissemination Internal Bank Report Page 3 of 13

The innovative and low-cost methodology adopted by LTR has shown a growing interest of other African countries. In addition, Rwanda has been designated to take the lead in the implementation of the African Union Land Policy. Dissemination of results will therefore be key to inform policy dialogue and implementation in Rwanda and beyond. Efforts will be made to organize a workshop targeted to a large audience, including other governments and civil society. 3. (Optional question) What can/has been done to find an alternative source of financing, i.e. instead of a Bank administered Grant? DFID and UNHabitat have funded the pilot survey. DFID/BPRP/BNPP/IGC have funded the baseline data collection and DFID has committed to finance the main cost of the survey implementation of the endline. 4. What are the main risks related to the Grant financed activity? Are there any potential conflicts of interest for the Bank? How will these risks/conflicts be monitored and managed? Two main risks related to the activities have been identified. Both are rated low and will be monitored and managed in partnership with the National Land Centre. 1/ Contamination of the control cells However this is considered to be a minimal risk as government has fully committed to adapt the roll-out of the project to the timing imposed by the impact evaluation as emphasized in the Memorandum of Understanding between the Bank and the National Land Centre attached to this proposal. In addition, the IE team maintains constant dialogue with the National Land Centre and its provincial representatives and closely follows the implementation of the project in the field. 2/ GoR is not satisfied by the results and conclusions of the impact evaluation This risk is considered low as the National Land Centre and the Ministry of Environment and Land (MINELA) have been briefed on the methodology of the impact evaluation and have proved extremely willing to improve the implementation of the project. In addition, GoR is now focusing efforts on ensuring long term sustainability of the project, for which the analysis will provide crucial inputs. KCPII 1. What is the general issue that the project addresses and what is its innovative value? Why is it of interest to the Bank? With increased pressure on land resources, improving property rights will be critical for African countries to fully realize their potential. However, operational approaches to do so in a way that is scaleable and can be adapted to African conditions and economically viable in light of lower land values there do not currently exist. In fact, most country programmes (including Bank supported ones) are too costly to be affordable by the majority of people (10 to 100 times the cost of what is being done in Rwanda in many cases) and have thus failed to achieve broad coverage or sustainability. Rwanda is the first African country to implement an approach along these lines. While this has the potential to revolutionize the nature of land-related interventions in Africa, it is important to carefully document the process and rigorously evaluate its impact to identify potential areas for imporvement and thereby help Rwanda make its land system more sustainable and other countries to build on the lessons learned there. To do so, and building on an evaluation of the pilots implemented to develop the approach, we have designed a rigorous evaluation strategy, design that would allow us to assess impacts in a number of dimensions (conflict, gender, legal knowledge) that have previously been neglected. This improves signifinatly on the literature which mostly relies on descriptive statistics or non-experimental evaluation methods. Some of the best academic work on the relationship between land rights and investment in the rural context (e.g., Besley, 1995; Place and Migot-Adholla, 1998; Jacoby, Li and Rozelle, 2002; Do and Iyer, 2003) as well as in the urban context (e.g., Field, 2005; Galiani and Internal Bank Report Page 4 of 13

Schargrodsky, 2010) relies on instrumental variable techniques or quasi-natural experiments. The project will allow to document the process, carry out analysis of the baseline survey, and identifying the short term impacts of an innovative low-cost nation-wide land titling project. This is, to our knowledge, the first study to exploit a randomized impact evaluation design in order to estimate the effects of a nation-wide land titling program, such as the one implemented in Rwanda. In particular, the evaluation will identify successes and point out caveats to support the GoR in designing complementary interventions. The credibility of the results will not only ensure the usefulness of our study for the Rwandan government, but also generate the potential for our findings to have an impact on policy well beyond the Rwandan context. African governments have already shown a growing interest in the LTR programme and delegations from Nigeria and Ethiopia have visiting the National Land Centre in Kigali and in the field. In addition, Rwanda has been chosen to pilot the implementation of the African Union Land Policy Initiative signed by member States and launched in October 2010. 2. Describe its development impact. Who will benefit and to what extent? The results and knowledge created by the analysis of both the baseline and the endline surveys will benefit different stakeholders. 1/ For GoR and the National Land Centre the results will: (i) provide detailed information on the land sector in Rwanda; (ii) support the design of complementary intervention to benefit to the most vulnerable groups and to ensure long-term sustainability; (iii) serve as an important input for the scheduled revision of the Organic Land Law. 2/ For governments implementing higher costs interventions and for governments developing programmes, the results of the impact evaluation will serve as a major input for cost reduction of land titling projects. Both the Ethiopian and the Nigerian governments visited LTR and showed interest in its innovative low-cost approach. Ethiopia is planning to implement a similar methodology. 3/ Finally, dissemination of the results of the impact evaluation will underline the benefits associated with a rigorous randomized impact evaluation and constitute be a powerful tool to convince governments of the value of randomized evaluation for such type of projects. 3. What is the potential for replicability (including cross-country applicability)? The activity will create replicable lessons at two levels: First, it will inform efforts to improve land tenure throughout Africa. Land titling exercises are currently being implemented in both rural and urban settings in other countries in Africa including in Northern Mozambique, Tanzania, Ghana, Benin and Burkina Faso, at a much higher cost per parcel. Those programmes could highly benefit from lesson-learnt from Rwanda's low-cost approach. In addition, many other countries face increased pressure to develop their land management system, and have shown interest in the Rwandan massive regularisation programme (Nigeria, Sudan). A close link to the African Union's land policy framework and guidelines is critical to achieve this. Second, by demonstrating how land titling interventions can be evaluated, the activity will respond to the growing demand for rigorous and well-designed evaluations of such interventions by other donors, in particular MCC. Such evaluations are under discussion or implementation in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Benin, and Mozambique. 4. Give indications of country participation and ownership. The National Land Tenure Centre which implements the Land Tenure Regularization programme is the major counterpart of this activity. There has been close consultation with the NLC in developing the concept note of the impact evaluation of the regularization program that clearly spells out the various activities of the pilot and national studies (see the attached MOU). The design and implementation of the surveys as well as other related activities have Internal Bank Report Page 5 of 13

(pilot, baseline) and will (endline) be conducted in consultation with the National Land Tenure Centre and DFID. The National Land Centre hosted an IE team member in Kigali during the 6 months of survey preparation and data collection for the baseline. The government has fully committed to the exercise and the sampling strategy. The National Land Centre is a key partner to ensure that the programme is implemented in the treatment EAs as soon as possible after the baseline was collected (29/50 sectors have or are being demarcated, the rest will be finished by June at the latest), and that contamination is kept minimal. In addition, the National Land Centre will organize, jointly with the IE team, regional dissemination workshops to allow sharing the results of the evaluation to GoR, local partners and agencies, as well as neighbouring countries. The Director General of the National Land Centre participated in a session on Rwanda land tenure at the Annual World Bank Land Conference in April 2011 where the GoR presented its approach followed by the IE team presenting results of the pilot impact evaluation. The excellent collaboration is also manifested in the fact that GoR has requested, and the country team has agreed to include in the FY2012 WPA, an ESW that will largely be based on the data collected during the baseline and that will bring key issues regarding implementation and sustainability of the program direclty to the attention of policy makers in Rwanda. 5. Summarize consultations within and outside the Bank (including with the recipient country) in the preparation of this proposal. The National Land Centre has been one of our key partners since 2009. They have been actively involved in every step of the development of the project. The methodology adopted was also presented in details to the Minister of Environment and Lands (MINELA), who welcomed the World Bank exercise. Aside from government partners, the IE team has interacted with a wide range of actors. Inside the Bank, gender and sector specialists have participated actively in the preparation of the project and instruments. In addition, the IE team has maintained constant dialogue with the Country Office team, through its Manager and the agriculture team, who have provided advice. The Country Manager visited the projects in the field in January 2011. DFID Rwanda, the lead agency founding LTR, has been consulted on many occasions. The IE team was invited to present the methodology of the randomized evaluation to other donors in Kigali (SIDA, EC). The LSE International Growth Centre, through its Country Director and the team in Kigali, have been consulted and have expressed a great interest in the experiment and its findings. The IGC has expressed interest to fund a workshop in Kigali to disseminate the results of the baseline analysis. A wide range of civil society actors were also met at many occasions and provided important suggestions during the development of the instruments. Finally, the results of the pilot exercise were presented and discussed publically at the World Bank Annual Land Conference in Washington (April 2011), allowing for comments and suggestions from a wide range of actors involved in land management, included government representatives, lead agencies, and civil society. The session on Rwanda was chaired by DFID Rwanda. 6. What is/are the question(s) the research/data project/analysis seeks to answer? While the ultimate objective of the activity is to generate evidence on the impact of the intervention, this will require second round data. However, even without such data, analysis using the baseline data can be conducted on a range of issues that are of great analytical and policy interest. First, availability of plot level data will allow us to assess determinants of investment and agricultural productivity. Among others, this will allow us to answer whether subjective measures of tenure security or actual conflict affect the likelihood of investment. It will also allow us to assess whether productivity increases with plot size so that policies to limit sub-division of plots below 1 hectare can be justified. Second, in contrast to other African countries many of which are very concerned about potentially detrimental impacts of land market liberalization, markets for sales and rental are very active in Rwanda, allowing us Internal Bank Report Page 6 of 13

to analyze the determinants of market participation and the extent to which operation of such markets could lead to undesirable outcomes. Finally, as our survey included an extensive module on inheritance received (or expected) by all the head's and the spouses' siblings and their children, we will be able to assess the extent to which changes in inheritance legislation that came into effect in 1999 have affected the extent to which females receive intergenerational transfers as well as the longer-term impacts of these on welfare of girls vs. boys. All of these will directly inform the FY12 ESW requested by the GoR. The endline will enable to quantify immediate to short term impacts of the higher land tenure security including: (i) intra-household bargaining and protection of vulnerable groups, (ii) productivity of land use and land-related investment, (iii) land access and land market participation, (iv) livelihood diversification as well as (v) legal knowledge. Specific questions to be investigated include: the quantification of program impact on perceived land tenure security and incidence of different types of conflict (incl. squatter & wetland rights); the identification of factors (e.g. cell characteristics, composition of registration committees) affecting conflict outcomes; the quantification of program impact on females' and orphans land rights; its determinants, welfare implications, quantification of short-term program impact on land-related productive and consumptive investment at individual level; impacts of LTR on collaboration at community level and public good provision ( land consolidation); the impact of LTR on transferability of land and associated impacts in terms of productivity and land access; and, the determinants of registering land transfers. In particular, results will be disaggregated by gender level in order to further investigate, using a nationally representative panel data, the results of the pilot impact evaluation (mentioned above) that suggested an increased vulnerability of un-married women (24% of the sample) as a result of LTR. Medium to longer term impacts of land tenure regularization could be assessed in a follow-up survey for which we may seek funding at a later point. These include, but are not limited to, longer term land use productivity and investment; access to credit and the ability to smooth consumption; investment in human capital formation by boys vs. girls; diversification of off-farm activities and migration for employment purposes; and the impacts of LTR on collective action (investment in local infrastructure). 7. Describe the broad analytical approach and specific methods to be used. The methodology adopted is a randomized experiment using panel data. To provide for identification, we randomly selected sectors from the universe of rural cells to be treated (Kigali and some atypical 'hotspots' had to be excluded as the program was implemented there in an accelerated manner). Sample size and design were estimated using careful power calculations to enable to detect a reasonable (expected) effect size of the program with sufficient statistical power and account for a 20% attrition rate between the two rounds. Additional contact information (cell phone numbers of friends and family) were collected during the baseline to limit attrition to a strict minimum. Two datasets were used to get estimates of mean, standard deviation as well intraclass correlation coefficients of potential outcome variables. First, data from PSIA 2005 was used to estimate required parameters of food consumption expenditure per capita. Second, the World Bank data collected to assess the impact of the pilot land tenure regularization program was used to estimate parameters of the proportion of households investing (new as well as maintenance) in soil conservation measures. The sampled EAs were drawn from the complete list of EAs provided by NSIR, from which the sectors, districts and province mentioned above were excluded. 100 sectors nation-wide (4 from 25 districts) were randomly selected from all sectors eligible for "regular" LTR. Half of the selected sectors were pre-assigned to an "early" group that will have registration and certification done immediately upon the completion of the baseline data collection. The other 50 sectors are in a "late" group where LTR implementation will be at the very end of the regularization exercise. Subsequently, three EAs are randomly selected within each sector with cluster size of 12 households. The map provided as an attachment shows the sampled control and treatment sectors. A listing exercise was conducted at the village level in order to randomly select 12 respondent households and replacements in each sampled EAs. There will be no more than 2 replacements per EA and the rate of replacement for the entire survey will be kept below 15%. Internal Bank Report Page 7 of 13

A complete household survey will be collected revisiting the 3,600 households interviewed in the baseline. As mentioned above, 300 EAs in 25 districts have been covered by the survey. Information will be collected through interviews as well as direct observation. The household survey developed will include, as for the baseline survey (see attached questionnaire): - Household roster and socio-economic modules, including individual level demographic, education, migration and displacement, and social responsibilities and decision making; - Household economy module, including income, expenditures, household and non-farm enterprise assets and livestock, productive activities, remittances (including support to others); - Perception and legal knowledge module, including dispute resolution, ownership and expropriation; - Credit and loan module, including access and amount of credit received; - Land module, including a parcel roster, land rights, disputes, inheritance, investments, seasonal crop cover, seasonal labor/non-labor inputs and land sales. To facilitate unambiguous identification of parcels in the follow up survey, GPS readings have be taken during the baseline survey for each of the parcels owned or operated by the sampled households within the cell boundary of the selected enumeration area. Information at the community level was collected in each village. The community questionnaire was administered to the head of the village committee and the other four village committee members. The endline survey will revisit these local committee members. The community survey will include, as for the baseline survey (see attached questionnaire): - A community socio-economic module, including demographics, energy, land, women rights and community meetings (administered to the head only); - A community module on access to services, such as transport, credit facilities and health; - An agricultural module, including crop type, investments and land sales/rentals and expropriation; - A participant roster and socio-economic modules, including household level demographic, individual education, labor/employment and community responsibilities; - A participant migration module, including prior location of living and displacements; - A participant bargaining module, including frequency of meetings and movements and access to information; - A participant legal knowledge module. In addition, administrative data is systematically collected at the village level by LTR implementing partners. 8. Summary of work program, in its entirety, specifying the activity(ies) for which KCP funding is sought. PILOT IMPACT EVALUATION: COMPLETED (supporting institutions in parentheses) Pilot survey preparation: DFID, UN-Habitat, BPRP, WB Pilot survey data collection - 3,500 households in 4 cells: DFID, UN-Habitat, WB Pilot data analysis (1 research paper and a policy note): DFID, UN-Habitat, WB Dissimination of results of the pilot impact evaluation: DFID, UN-Habitat, WB BPRP, WB BASELINE SURVEY: activity on-going Baseline survey preparation (3,600 households, nationwide): DFID, BNPP, WB Baseline data collection: DFID, IGC, BNPP, BPRP, WB Baseline data analysis (a descriptive report, at least 2 research papers and a policy note): DFID, KCP Dissimination of the baseline analysis (workshop): IGC, KCP ENDLINE SURVEY Endline survey preparation (3,600 households, nationwide): DFID, KCP Endline data collection: DFID Endline analysis (a descriptive report, at least 2 research papers and a policy note): DFID, KCP Dissimination of the impact analysis (workshop): DFID, KCP Internal Bank Report Page 8 of 13

KCP funding is sought for the data analysis of the baseline survey, the preparation and supervision of the endline survey as well as for analysis of the data and dissemination of the results for both the baseline and enldline surveys. 9. Describe the specific deliverables or expected outputs from the project Results from the baseline and impact analysis will be summarized in at least three research papers to be published in peer reviewerd journals that will also feed into the forthcoming ESW. In addition, results will be summarized in policy notes (targeted to non-econometricians) for decision-makers within Rwanda and beyond. Results from the baseline analysis will focus on (i) impacts of changes in inheritance legislation, (ii) productivity determinants (including conflict and subjective mesures of tenure security that might affect investment), and (iii) determinants of land rental and sales market participation. Outputs from the impact analysis will quantify the immediate and short term benefits of LTR, as mentioned above on: higher levels of perceived tenure security; higher land values; lower probability being affected by land-related dispute or conflict; higher levels of land-related investment (including soil & water conservation, fertilizer use, house improvements); increased agricultural productivity and land values as well as efficient resource use; increased land rental and possibly sales market activity; as well as female empowerment and participation in decision making. These outputs will be developed in close collaboration with the NLC which will review them and provide feedback. The World Bank will also assist NLC in organizing a regional workshop with policy makers and civil society representatives from other countries in Africa. Beyond this, it will allow discussion of lessons from the Rwandan experience to feed into the dialogue on the implementation of the African Union Land Policy Initiative as well as into the design of low-cost land titling projects- and as ways for Rwanda to continue to innovate and improve its land management system in order to attract investment, foster productive use of land, and contribute to overall welfare. 10. Highlight capacity-building aspects. The activity supports the National Land Centre in the implementation of the land tenure regularization program by providing pertinent information that will emphasize the successes of the intervention as well as the shortcomings. The latter will be used for the design of complementary interventions to ensure the sustainability of the Cadastre and for the scheduled revision of the Organic Land Law. Local instituions have already benefitied from capacity building measures regarding implementation of the pilot survey. We are discussing with the National Land Centre the possibility of using the University (with close supervision from the IE tean and an experienced field coordinator based in Kigali) to implement the endline survey, which will enable to enhance capacities at the local level to carry survey exercises. 11. Outline dissemination plans and target audience(s). Descriptive reports - baseline and endline: GoR, DFID and partners Research papers - baseline and endline: GoR, DFID, World Bank, institutions, academics Policy notes- baseline and endline: GoR, DFID, World Bank, institutions, civil society Workshop - baseline: GoR, DFID, partners in Rwanda, other governments Workshop - endline: GoR, DFID, partners in Rwanda, other governments Presentation during the Annual Land Conference: Governments, World Bank, practitioners, civil society, academics 12. If the grant is recipient-executed, please give details of executing agency and contact information. The grant is not recepient-executed. 13. Describe the implementation arrangements, with specific attention to partnership. ie the respective responsibility of other Bank units, other donors, local agencies, institutions, consultants. Internal Bank Report Page 9 of 13

The National Land Centre is in charge of prioritizing intervention in the treatment group and to ensure minimal contamination. The National Land Centre will provide comments on the outputs to be delivered and participate actively in the dissemination of the results. DFID is the main funder of the impact evaluation. IGC will co-organize the dissemination workshop for the baseline results. Eliana La Ferrara (University of Bocconi and IGC) will participate in the development of instruments, the data analysis, and the dissemination workshop. Markus Goldstein (AFTPM) will participate in the development of instruments, the data analysis, and the dissemination workshop as well as provide essential advice on gender related issues. A survey firm will be hired to implement the survey in the field. The World Bank will hire a field coordinator to supervise. 14. Provide an implementation schedule by task/component (including beginning and end dates, as well as major milestones) Pilot impact evaluation: completed BASELINE SURVEY (nation-wide IE): Baseline survey preparation (3,600 households, nationwide): Completed Baseline data collection: Completed Baseline data analysis: June to October 2011 Milestone: a descriptive report (August), at least 2 research papers that feed into the ESW and a policy note (October) Dissemination of baseline analysis: October to December 2011 Milestone: workshop in Kigali, December 2011 ENDLINE SURVEY (nation-wide IE) Endline survey preparation (3,600 households, nationwide): November to December 2011 (attempt) Milestone: final survey instruments Endline data collection: February to March 2012 (attempt) Milestone: final data in CSPRO (May 2012) Endline analysis: June to January 2012 (attempt) Milestone: a descriptive report (June 2012), at least 2 research papers and a policy note Dissemination of the impact analysis: January tojune 2013 (attempt) Milestone: workshop in Kigali, presentation of results at the Land Conference (April 2013) 15. Identify the team members under the project ( Bank staff, consultants, and local participants), including their organizational units, affiliations, responsibilities and disciplines ( economists, demographer, etc) World Bank Daniel Ali, DECAR, Economist, Development economics Klaus Deininger, DECAR, Lead Economist, Land economics Marguerite Duponchel, DECAR, JPA, Development economics Internal Bank Report Page 10 of 13

Markus Goldstein, AFTPM, Lead Economist, Gender economics External Eliana La Ferrara, University Bocconi, Professor of Economics, Political economy 16. If your project has a data collection component, please provide a clear statement on how the collected data would be treated and made available to the external users as a public good in the spirit of the new Open Data initiative. The data collected will conform to the Open Data initiative policy providing that this is acceptable by GoR and complies with the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the World Bank and the National Land Centre. RELATED PROJECT INFORMATION Basic Project Information Project Definition Project Description Project Type Region/Cty Status Company code Team Leader P095390 Land policies for growth RF-Research Services 1W-World Active IBRD 00072501 - Mr Klaus W. Deininger Project Description The task aims to help implement recommendations from global research at the national level by (i) providing quantitative and qualitative evidence demonstrating the importance of secure land tenure and effective land institutions at the country level; (ii) identifying national policy options to translate global policy recommendations and thus improve tenure security, enhance land access for the poor, and support the development of land and real estate markets; (iii) measure the direct and indirect impact of implementing such policies on growth and poverty reduction; and (iv) develop benchmarks for country performance in key aspects of land policy that would allow comparison across countries and use in analysis and policy dialogue. Results of the work will be disseminated through workshops in-country and across countries as well as research and working papers, monographs, and technical notes describing best practice approaches to address specific policy issues. By providing evidence on the importance of land policies for broader economic growth, helping in the design of appropriate policy interventions, and measuring the impact of implementing these in selected cases, the activities under the project will provide direct as well as indirect benefits. Countries where specific studies are undertaken will benefit directly from analytical support that will allow them to improve the treatment of land policy issues in PRSPs and country strategy documents and to design interventions to address critical constraints. At the same time, the Bank#s development partners will benefit from the description of specific interventions and their impact as well as the analytical insights generated. Internal Bank Report Page 11 of 13

By providing upstream analytical support and helping in impact analysis, the project is expected to increase the demand for Bank support in the area of land policy while at the same time putting the Bank and its development partners in a position to better respond to this demand. Project Milestones Usage Description Basic Forecast Actual 02310 AIS Sign-off (B) 05/03/2005 05/04/2005 02320 Activity Implementation Start (B) 05/17/2005 02330 Draft to Director (N) 02/29/2008 12/30/2011 02340 Paper to Director (Y) 02350 Paper to VP (Y) 02360 VP Meeting (Y) 02370 Paper to MD (Y) 02380 Completion/Director Approval (N) 02/29/2008 06/29/2012 02390 Board Approval (Y) 02400 ACS (B) 02410 Publication (N) Project Financing Total Cost 0.00 Finance 0.00 Financing Gap 0.00 Source Amount Financed BORR 0.00 CHECKLIST The agreement governing the use of funds under this Donor fund requires, inter alia, that: KCP - Guide in Filling Out GFR PROCESSING TAB Team Member Optional TTL may delegate filling out of GFR, but only the TTL can submit. Team Leader Required TTL name (must be TLAP-accredited) Reviewer Required Enter your RM Internal Bank Report Page 12 of 13

Aban Daruwala - DRGPS, DRGFP, DRGTR, DECGA Joe Welch - DRGPO, DRGMG, DRGTR Nancy Lim - DECRS Manager Required Enter your manager's name e.g. Gershon Feder for DRGRU Sector Director Required Enter your director's name e.g. Martin Ravallion for DECRG Window Manager Required 2475 - Joe Welch, 2476 / 3435 - Nancy Lim Program Manager Required Ivar Cederholm TACT no action required from TTL As Task Team Leader (TTL) for this grant, I confirm that the activities this grant will finance and the proposed use of grant funds comply with the above requirements. Mr Klaus W. Deininger on 05/17/2011 As Window Manager for this grant, I confirm that the activities this grant will finance and the proposed use of grant funds comply with the above requirements. Mr Ivar Cederholm on Internal Bank Report Page 13 of 13