Multifamily Month In Review: New York City december 2015 Released February 2016 By Ariel Property Advisors Join Our Network: e-mail join@arielpa.com or visit arielpa.nyc 212.544.9500 I arielpa.nyc 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015, New York NY 10168
Compiled by: Sales Team: Shimon Shkury 212.544.9500 ext. 11 sshkury@arielpa.com Victor Sozio 212.544.9500 ext. 12 vsozio@arielpa.com About The Report Content Ariel Property Advisors is pleased to present its Multifamily Month In Review: New York City. The report provides a monthly overview of market activity, benchmark transactions, revenue and expense trends, and current events that affect the multifamily real estate market. The Multifamily Month In Review is distributed to our clients on a monthly basis. Past versions of the Multifamily Month In Review can be found at arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/researchreports Michael A. Tortorici 212.544.9500 ext. 13 mtortorici@arielpa.com Analyst Team: Daniel Novick 212.544.9500 ext. 29 dnovick@arielpa.com Samuel Stuart 212.544.9500 ext. 40 sstuart@arielpa.com Table Of Contents Multifamily Month In Review: New York City Multifamily Market Performance by Sub-Market Transaction & Dollar Volume By Quarter Trailing 6-Month Moving Average Pricing Indicators & Distributions About Ariel Property Advisors 3 4 5 6 7 Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc 2
x+4+2+3+2 x+14+16+31+20 Multifamily Month In Review New York City Multifamily Month In Review: New York City december 2015 Stuy-Town Sale Drives December Multifamily Sales, Capping Off Strong Year Punctuating a strong finish to 2015, December multifamily figures experienced massive year over year gains in dollar volume, due in large part to the bellwether sale of Stuyvesant Town & Peter Cooper Village. After excluding this sale, city-wide dollar volume would be down roughly 31 percent compared to December of 2014. For the month, New York City saw 60 transactions comprised of 115 buildings totaling $6.551 billion in gross consideration. This represents a 312% increase in dollar volume, a 1% decrease in building volume and a 9% decrease in transaction volume compared to November 2015, which saw 66 transactions comprised of 116 buildings totaling $1.592 billion in gross consideration. Blackstone s $5.45 billion purchase of Stuyvesant Town & Peter Cooper Village, one of the largest multifamily transactions ever recorded, accounted for roughly 83 percent of the entire city s total dollar volume for December. The complex s sale helped boost s dollar volume 452% year-over-year. On the Upper West Side, Stonehenge Management picked up a 174-unit elevatored building located at 210 West 70th Street for $133 million, or $760 per square foot. had a tremendous December as the borough saw four multifamily deals close north of $20 million. The largest deal took place in Flushing, where Treetop Development purchased a large portfolio of 608 units almost all of which are rent stabilized for $138.8 million, or $261 per square foot. New management reportedly plans to spend about $10 million on improvements to the properties. In Jackson Heights, a 78,378 square foot elevatored building located at 35-33 83rd Street sold for $25.5 million, or $325 per square foot. The building had not traded hands in more than 40 years. had a healthy month as the borough saw 36 buildings trade across 14 transactions totaling $178.54 million in gross consideration. The Related Companies capped off an aggressive 2015 buying spree throughout the Bronx with the purchase of a 20-building portfolio for $112.5 million the year s priciest Bronx transaction. The properties are spread across several neighborhoods in the North, West and South Bronx. Northern finished the year with a strong December as the submarket saw 10 transactions consisting of 23 buildings totaling $136.995 million in gross consideration a 37% increase in dollar volume from a year ago. Rhodium Capital Advisors picked up a 13-building portfolio spread across Harlem and Washington Heights for $98 million, or $394 per square foot. The portfolio spans 248,700 square feet and contains a total of 361 rental units and 17 retail stores. 89% 2% 3% 2% 4% Dollar Volume $6.55 billion 312% increase compared to December 2014 Northern December 2015 Snapshot Transaction Volume Building Volume 60 115 9% decrease compared to December 2014 8% decrease compared to December 2014 Dollar Volume Comparison By Location Chart 89+ Building Volume Comparison By Location Chart had a relatively quiet month, experiencing year over year declines in transaction, building and dollar volume. In Williamsburg, 119-123 Kent Avenue, 3 contiguous mixed-use buildings, sold for a combined $15.85 million, which equates to over $1,000 per square foot a price that largely reflects the retail portion. New management plans to use roughly 5,700 square feet of air rights to expand the retail and attract a high-profile tenant. Down in Prospect Heights, Novel Property Ventures picked up a 55-unit rental building for $23.5 million, or $450 per square foot. For the six months ended in December 2015 (Page 5), the average monthly transaction volume decreased to 58 transactions per month. The average monthly dollar volume increased significantly to $1.991 billion. 19% 20% 31% 16% 14% Northern 19+ New York City Metrics dec 2015 % Change vs. nov 2015 nov 2015 % Change vs. dec 2014 dec 2014 Transaction Vol 60 18% 51-9% 66 Building Vol 115 53% 75-1% 116 Dollar Vol $6,550,737,407 640% $885,480,753 312% $1,591,843,797 Units 14,898 596% 2,140 247% 4,290 Legend: Northern is defined as below 96 th Street on the east side and below 110 th Street on the west side 3 Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc
Multifamily Market Performance By Sub-Market Metrics dec 2015 % Change vs. nov2015 nov 2015 % Change vs. dec 2014 dec 2014 Legend Transaction Vol 15 15% 13-25% 20 Northern Building Vol 22 0% 22-21% 28 Dollar Vol $5,890,676,785 947% $562,434,253 452% $1,067,301,295 Units 11,811 1720% 649 705% 1,467 Dollar Volume Comparison Graph $5b N. Transaction Vol 10 100% 5 11% 9 Building Vol 23 130% 10 53% 15 Dollar Vol $136,995,124 110% $65,212,500 37% $100,325,000 Units 507 80% 281 9% 465 $1b $450m $400m $350m $300m $250m $200m Transaction Vol 14 0% 14 17% 12 $150m $100m Building Vol 36 140% 15 20% 30 Dollar Vol $178,540,498 189% $61,759,000 39% $128,010,000 $50m $0 Dec 15 Nov 15 Dec 14 Units 1,170 170% 434 5% 1,117 Building Volume Comparison Graph Transaction Vol 13-7% 14-38% 21 Building Vol 18-22% 23-53% 38 Dollar Vol $113,150,000-19% $139,500,000-59% $276,757,502 50 45 40 Units 430-17% 516-62% 1,144 35 30 25 Transaction Vol 8 60% 5 100% 4 Building Vol 16 220% 5 220% 5 Dollar Vol $231,375,000 309% $56,575,000 1090% $19,450,000 20 15 10 5 Units 980 277% 260 910% 97 0 Dec 15 Nov 15 Dec 14 Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc 4
Multifamily Month In Review New York City Transaction & Dollar Volume By Quarter Trailing 6-Month Moving Average Multifamily Transaction Timeline Legend: Transaction Volume Dollar Volume $6.5b 110 $2b 90 $1.5b 70 $1b 50 $500mm 30 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Trans Vol: 215 191 229 216 185 164 Dollar Vol: $3.66b $4.06b $3.94b $3.14b $3.69b $8.25b The Trailing 6-Month Moving Average Legend: Transaction Volume Dollar Volume $2b 85 $1.5b 80 $1.4b 75 $1.3b 70 $1.2b 65 $1.1b 60 $1b 55 $950mm 50 $900mm 45 $850mm 40 $800mm 35 $750mm 30 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6 Months Ended Avg. Dollar Vol. Avg. Transaction Vol. 2014 Dec $1,287,068,288 68 2015 Jan $1,260,462,423 66 Feb $1,357,954,941 68 Mar $1,333,980,966 70 Apr $1,200,676,182 70 May $1,290,527,333 73 Jun $1,181,037,917 74 Jul $1,242,256,498 75 Aug $1,169,263,522 72 Sep $1,139,226,877 67 Oct $1,098,854,972 64 Nov $1,055,453,697 60 Dec $1,991,425,381 58 5 Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc
A+0+7 A+4+62 A+34+48 A+48+27 Pricing Indicators & Distributions Jun 2015 - dec 2015 Trailing Numbers JUN 2014 - dect 2014 Trailing numbers Transaction Summary Location / Criteria Transactions Buildings Traded Dollar Value Traded Median Price Units Traded Median Units / Transaction Transactions Buildings Traded Dollar Value Traded Median Price Units Traded Median Units / Transaction 85 159 $8,415,203,081 $15,400,000 15,534 20 86 122 $4,546,432,295 $13,325,000 9,627 24 N. 55 118 $888,719,921 $10,000,000 3,184 40 76 159 $893,713,143 $9,075,000 3,978 44 Bronx 75 145 $837,869,784 $5,300,000 5,566 37 96 161 $725,206,854 $3,900,000 6,211 37 101 175 $1,252,997,877 $6,186,990 3,817 23 116 192 $1,077,312,709 $4,750,000 4,090 20 33 49 $553,761,625 $4,900,000 2,255 23 32 60 $479,744,729 $4,300,000 2,308 19 Summary 349 646 $11,948,552,288 $8,200,000 30,356 25 406 694 $7,722,409,730 $6,500,000 26,214 27 Pricing Indicators Location / Criteria Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM $850,876 $966 3.61% 20.57 $676,647 $906 3.75% 18.81 N. $281,275 $354 4.08% 14.91 $242,569 $272 4.41% 13.37 Bronx $145,810 $172 5.37% 10.21 $109,980 $125 5.80% 8.60 $331,830 $384 4.59% 15.82 $284,063 $326 4.92% 14.51 $239,236 $267 4.32% 14.86 $192,584 $247 5.49% 10.72 Trailing Six Month Performance: Deal Distribution By Transaction Count and Dollar Volume Legend: $20mm+ $5-20mm $1-5mm By Transaction Volume By Dollar Volume 34+ 24+ N. +22+54A12+ Bronx +49+39A18+ 25+ 34% 24% 12% 18% 25% 62% 54% 39% 48% 27% 4% 22% 49% 34% 48% 93+ 62+34+ N. +4A58+ Bronx +11+31A54+ +8+38A75+16+9+A 93% 62% 58% 54% 75% 7% 34% 31% 38% 16% 0% 4% 11% 8% 9% Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc 6
Multifamily Month In Review New York City About Ariel Property Advisors Investment Sales, Investment Research & CAPITAL SERVICES Quality Brokerage Services Exclusive Market Reports Asset Evaluations Ariel Property Advisors is a commercial real estate services and advisory company located in New York City. Our company is unique to the industry in that it is structured like an investment bank, with separate divisions for investment sales, capital services and research. This strategic approach to commercial brokerage services allows our professionals to deploy greater resources and provide consistent, seamless execution to every transaction. We cover all major commercial asset types throughout the New York metropolitan area, but maintain a very sharp focus on multifamily, mixed-use, development, commercial and industrial properties. From consultation through closing, our professionals are dedicated to achieving optimal results for our clients. Combining the insights of veteran brokers with the latest real estate market intelligence, we find solutions that meet the specific needs of both the client and the asset. Cultivating long-lasting relationships with the real estate community is essential to the success of both our firm and our clients, so we encourage all market participants to use our company as a resource. Contact us today for Asset Evaluations, listing information, financing opportunities or our latest market reports. 7 Ariel Property Advisors 122 East 42 nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 212.544.9500 arielpa.nyc
Compiled by: Invesment Sales Shimon Shkury ext. 11 Victor Sozio ext. 12 Michael A. Tortorici ext. 13 sshkury@arielpa.com vsozio@arielpa.com mtortorici@arielpa.com Randy Modell ext. 17 Jonathan Berman ext. 20 Scot Hirschfield ext. 16 rmodell@arielpa.com jberman@arielpa.com shirschfield@arielpa.com Howard Raber ext. 23 Daniel Wechsler ext. 44 Mark Spinelli ext. 35 hraber@arielpa.com dwechsler@arielpa.com mspinelli@arielpa.com Daniel Tropp ext. 26 Jesse Deutch ext. 18 Jason Gold ext. 22 dtropp@arielpa.com jdeutch@arielpa.com jgold@arielpa.com Matthew Gillis ext. 42 Marko Agbaba ext. 32 Joshua Berkowitz ext. 41 mgillis@arielpa.com magbaba@arielpa.com jberkowitz@arielpa.com Nathan Singer ext. 48 Jesse Greshin ext. 5272 Joshua Kwilecki ext. 51 nsinger@arielpa.com jgreshin@arielpa.com jkwilecki@arielpa.com Invesment Research Ivan Petrovic Aryeh Orlofsky Daniel Novick ipetro@arielpa.com aorlofsky@arielpa.com dnovick@arielpa.com David Baruch Brett Campbell Dusan Panic dbaruch@arielpa.com bcampbell@arielpa.com dpanic@arielpa.com Sam Stuart sstuart@arielpa.com Spencer Kiely skiely@arielpa.com OUR METHODOLOGY The multifamily transactions included in the analysis occurred at a minimum sales price of $1 million, with a minimum gross area of 5,000 square feet and with a minimum of 10 units. Our estimated sales statistics reflect all data available on public records and through other sources we deem reliable. Types Of Transactions Considered: Transactions in which there was a transfer of ownership and deed document recorded on ACRIS were considered. Data is collected form public sources and other sources we deem reliable. If you would like to use or quote this report on the web, we ask that you quote the source as Multifamily Month In Review: New York City by Ariel Property Advisors and link report from our website page (http://arielpa.nyc/research/reports/) Location Definitions: - South of East 96 th Street and South of West 110 th Street Northern - North of East 96 th Street, North of West 110 th Street - Bronx Borough - Borough - Borough COMPLIMENTARY ASSET EVALUATION Please call us at 212.544.9500 to request an Asset Evaluation Whether you are considering selling your building or you just want to know the current market value of your property, we are available to provide you with a complimentary asset evaluation. Produced by the joint efforts of our investment sales and investment research teams, an Asset Evaluation will provide you with a thorough analysis of your investment property, and will detail our future marketing efforts on your behalf. The information contained herein has either been given to us by the owner of the property or obtained from sources that we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt its accuracy but we do not guarantee the accuracy of any information provided herein. As an example, all zoning information, buildable footage estimates and indicated uses must be independently verified. Vacancy factors used herein are an arbitrary percentage used only as an example, and does not necessarily relate to actual vacancy, if any. The value of this prospective investment is dependent upon these estimates and assumptions made above, as well as the investment income, the tax bracket, and other factors which your tax advisor and/or legal counsel should evaluate. The prospective buyer should carefully verify each item of income, and all other information contained herein. February 19, 2016 1:51 PM