North Shuswap 2015 Year End Report January 2016 For the purpose of this report the North Shuswap is defined as that part of land on the north side of Shuswap Lake between the Adams River Bridge and the end of the pavement in St. Ives. STATISTICS 2015 North Shuswap MLS sales volume is down 10% is over 2014 with 133 units sold in 2015. 2015 Solds are as follows: Residential with 88 recorded sales - down from 98 in 2014 Lots with 43 - down from 62 in 2014 Farms with 1 - same as 2014 Commercial 2 up 1 from 2014 Of the 2015 residential sales, 15 were Lakeshore sales with 8 of those were Lakeshore condos. As sales volume continues, the lower-priced inventory depletes and upward pressure will cause higher list or asking prices. I don t know when prices will rise, but it s just a matter of time and inventory. Average residential sale price is up 4.3% in 2015 over 2014. Sales volume is a bit lower with sale prices a bit higher. 2014 average North Shuswap residential sale price was $264,638 while 2015 saw $276,153 as the average residential sale price. Our MLS stats are a bit skewed as there are some RV lots listed among the residential category in our Multiple Listing System. It is our hope that RV Parks will someday be granted their own category within the MLS system. LAKESHORE: 15 North Shuswap Lakeshore sold in 2015 and 23 sold in 2014. Prices ranged from $157,000 for an entry level condo, to $1,350,000 at the top of the market. The sweet spot was between $450,000 and $800,000 with 7 Lakeshore sales in that range. We did see three sales over a million in 2015 and I m happy with that. 24 Lakeshore sales in a year is a normal average for the North Shuswap. Of the 15 Lakeshore sold in 2015 only 5 were free standing Lakeshore dwellings. If the Alberta economy was felt in any area of the Shuswap market it is here. In many cases the purchase of waterfront can be seen as a privilege, a badge of honor, pat on the back, an I ve arrived purchase. The more affluent Albertan seems to be sitting idle now so expect Lakeshore sales to continue low. The Alberta interest that we have been seeing is mostly directed toward the modest retirement home and not Lakefront. ANGLEMONT LOTS: I am often asked why I report on bare Anglemont Lots. It has been my experience that activity on bare Anglemont Lots is a bellwether for all types of North Shuswap properties for sale. Whatever is going on tends to happen to bare Anglemont Lots first, so that is why I watch those lots with a sharp eye. 2015 we had 30 bare Anglemont lots sold. 2013 saw 36 bare Anglemont Lots sold and 2014 found 44 sold. Over the last few years many potential Anglemont buyers thought it prudent to sit back and wait to see if the new water system was going to be completed and on budget. Anglemont went from the worst water system to the best water system in the Shuswap. Now that the water system fear is behind us, I see no reason that buyers won t respond to reasonable prices in Anglemont. One big hold back is the Anglemont zoning that stops lot owners from parking an RV on a bare Anglemont lot. That bylaw has stopped many buyers from being interested in Anglemont. Page 1 of 14
ANGLEMONT ZONING: I see there is a petition to remove the zoning restriction of RV s on bare lots in Anglemont. Years ago, at the Anglemont public zoning meetings, the options given to Anglemont residents were either full RV restrictions or no restrictions. The property owners felt their best protection was to approve full restriction. The fear at the time was with no restrictions Anglemont could fill up with yellow school busses connected by blue tarps. There was a lot of fear mongering. In time, Scotch Creek; Lee Creek and Magna Bay were also zoned, but this time Stand-Alone Residential Campsites were allowed providing the RV was connected to an approved septic system. Celista and St. Ives are not yet zoned. There are a few subdivisions that preclude RV use on a bare lot but overall, RV use is allowed. Whether zoned or not, I see no evidence that an RV on a bare lot hurts the market value of rural properties. On the contrary, the opposite is true. Anglemont restricts RV use to protect property values. But Anglemont property values are the lowest in the area. The rule of supply and demand is proving the point on market values. RV restriction has not protected Anglemont values and in fact has hurt them. There has always been a chain of events in our recreational area. A family comes to the North Shuswap to visit or to camp. They do this for a few years and then decide to buy a lot to camp on until they gather more cash to build a home. Most recreational buyers do so as money allows - one thing at a time. If you break that chain of events, that family will look for another area that is acceptable to their family plan. Look at the other areas in the North Shuswap that do allow land owners the option of RV s. Do you see yellow school busses connected by blue tarps? No. I don t either. While I understand the initial fear residents had, time has proven there is little to it. I live in Magna Bay and on my street there are land owners with RV s. I m fine with it because we are a Recreational area and I know they will build a home one day when they have the cash to do so. I don t see my home values lowered because of RV s on my street. The effect of an RV on market values may be true in a city but not out here in Cottage Country. So, some will say I m just saying this so I can sell a bunch of Anglemont lots and make lots of money. My motivation is to see all Anglemont properties increase in value. I have many friends and clients in Anglemont and it hurts me to see the values so low. RESIDENTIAL Non-Lakeshore homes in the North Shuswap stand at 55 sold in 2014 and 54 sold in 2015. Most buyer interest continues in the under $250,000 range. We have to watch our sold stats here because, as mentioned earlier, several RV lots sales are recorded within the residential stats. We see good interest in the modest home that will work as a summer home or retirement home. As the Alberta economy continues with its problems, more workers will leave Alberta. BARE LOTS 2015 saw 43 bare North Shuswap Lots sold with 30 of those being in Anglemont. 59 bare Lots sold in 2014. This has been a tough area over the last number of years. Typically these would be superior Lots offering more at a higher price, but the buyers have been slow to respond. The better Lot, outside of Anglemont, tends to be slow to recover. For a low, we had two Anglemont Lots ( with issues) sell at $8,000 and the highest sold Lot was at $138,000 in Scotch Creek as the top-end lot. FARM, ACREAGE & COMMERCIAL 1 farm and 2 commercial sold in 2014 and 1 farm and 1 commercial sold in 2015. These are typically slow movers. Acreages also continue to be slow. We have a good selection of 2 to 4 acre bare lots for sale with limited buyer interest. I expect some of the retiring Albertan s may turn their attention to a small acreage but time will tell. Page 2 of 14
STEADY SALES Every Wednesday we send out our weekly HOTSHEET reporting all the Realtors New Listings Price Changes and Solds for the North and the South Shuswap to my clients who have requested it. Of interest is every week except one, had sales recorded in 2015. We are moving away from seasonal sales to a steadier yearly statistic. SOUTH SHUSWAP, Sorrento, Blind Bay, Eagle Bay Low inventory and high buyer interest in homes in the $325,000 to $400,000 range is good. Buyers see value in being close to town but still near the lake that the South Shuswap offers. SEASONAL MARKET For the last two decades our spring market has found the most property sales per year with the fall market in second place, and the summer market in third place, and the winter market in last place. Over the last two years we see a change with the spring market still in first place, but the summer and fall market now being equal in sales volume, and the winter market up over historic levels. We see our Real Estate market moving toward a more equal sales volume statistic and our yearly market is now less seasonal. BUYERS As I have reported to you in previous newsletters, a typical year sees 1/3 of my buyers from Greater Vancouver, 1/3 from the Kamloops/Kelowna corridor and 1/3 from Alberta. The Alberta buyer has been up in numbers in the North Shuswap in 2015 - contrary to what people told me would happen. It s logical to think that the downturn in Alberta s economy would negatively affect the Real Estate market in the Shuswap, but that s not what happened. We have seen buyer interest from Alberta increase in one specific demographic. That demographic is not necessarily Albertan, but more accurately currently working in Alberta, of retirement age, and with little other connection or allegiance to Alberta. Also in good health and making a good wage, but intolerant of any disruption in their path. When they see or hear news that their position may be in jeopardy, they retire on a moments notice and many of them end up in the Shuswap. These people are intolerant of anything they see as BS. Given the high number of workers who fit that demographic, I can see a steady stream of them looking for a Shuswap retirement home over the next several years. OIL Below is my 2014 comment but it s still valid today. Plenty of debate on oil prices but here is how I see it low fuel prices should cause tourism to increase and boost that economic segment. Tourists become Real Estate buyers. Some oil patch workers who are near retirement age will retire rather than fight through an anticipated recession. Some of them will retire to the Shuswap. I m ready. PREDICTIONS The bottom is behind us and growth is evident. Growth will not be big but it is growing in a slow upward trend. Buyers often say you know I m in no rush. My response today is, be careful because that stance is likely to cost you. If you expect to pick the cherries then you must crawl up the ladder. If not then you are holding the ladder so others can pick the cherries, it s your call. I expect some sellers will want to bump their asking price up. This will happen soon after any market improvements. My advice to sellers is no, not yet, it s too early to talk about bumping prices. Page 3 of 14
ANTIDOLTAL EVIDENCE Last year s comments below still valid today. Just a few years ago delivery truck traffic in the North Shuswap was about 2 trucks per day. Today it s several trucks per hour hauling loads east or west. Just a few years ago you could call any contractor and have them to your house the next day. Today all tradesman and contractors have waiting lists and some stretch into months. Just a few years ago I was working full time trying to make something happen and today I m working full time to keep ahead of my daily work load from client requests. RETIREMENT Yes I turned 65 in 2015. No I m not retiring. In fact I m not even planning to retire. I m having too much fun to consider retiring. My job still turns me on. I still love helping people buy and sell. I still love coming to work. I still love research and study. I love doing what I do. You couldn t chase me away with a big stick! BAR GRAPHS I promised you lots of bar graphs so the last several pages are just that in support of my report to you. A Visit To The Shuswap I anticipate that 2016 will be a very busy year for all Shuswap Realtors. If you are planning a trip to the lake and want to see me please let me know so I can set some time aside just for you. I am looking forward to assisting you in your search. Regards, Al Christopherson Page 4 of 14
Sold Price Number of Sales Sold Price Number of Sales Average Residential/Recreational Sale Price 2008 thru 2015 Avg Sale Price Number of Sales $500,000 120 $450,000 $400,000 100 $350,000 $300,000 80 $250,000 60 $200,000 $150,000 40 $100,000 20 $50,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Avg Sale Price $433,876 $402,093 $274,935 $309,158 $383,628 $316,426 $264,638 $276,153 Number of Sales 38 50 38 48 52 66 98 88 0 Year Average Lot Sale Price 2008 thru 2015 Avg Sale Price Number of Sales $140,000 70 $120,000 60 $100,000 50 $80,000 40 $60,000 30 $40,000 20 $20,000 10 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Avg Sale Price $116,744 $112,382 $92,104 $114,068 $64,396 $71,465 $56,317 $89,864 Number of Sales 50 17 23 19 38 56 62 43 Year 0 Page 5 of 14
Dollar Value Number of Units Sold Sold - Volume 10 Year History 120 100 80 60 Res/Rec Lots 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Res/Rec 81 81 82 38 50 38 50 52 66 98 88 Lots 106 109 102 50 17 23 19 38 56 62 43 Year Sold - Average Sale Price 10 Year History 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Res/Rec Lots 200,000 100,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Res/Rec 251,440 322,673 483,705 433,876 402,093 274,936 332,592 383,628 316,426 264,638 276,153 Lots 54,812 93,057 131,300 116,744 112,382 92,104 114,068 64,396 71,465 56,317 89,864 Year Page 6 of 14
Lakeshore Average Sale Price Lake RES Avg Sale Price Lake LOTS Avg Sale Price 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Lakeshore Avg DOM 10 Year History 400 Lake RES Avg DOM Lake LOTS Avg DOM 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Lakeshore Average Days On Market (DOM) Page 7 of 14
The Following Charts are provided by the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board (OMREB) and are for the entire Shuswap Division and not limited to the North Shuswap. Page 8 of 14
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