MODULES & SESSIONS Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE UDIA URBAN IQ December 2016 Quarterly Report Information provided by UDIA's Partner, RPM Real Estate Group VICTORIA UDIA PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 2016 / 1 /
URBAN IQ UDIA Knowledge Portal URBAN IQ is a new market intelligence initiative by UDIA. Created to help fill the gap in knowledge available to the urban development industry, URBAN IQ is a portal of knowledge for residential property professionals. THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FOR PROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT. DISCLAIMER: ALTHOUGH ALL CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS REPORT, THE RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ALL THE INFORMATION BE VERIFIED IF IT IS TO BE USED FOR COMMERCIAL PURPOSES.
UDIA URBAN IQ PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE DECEMBER QUARTER 2016 ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE 4 RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES 8 FINANCE ACTIVITY 10 BUILDING ACTIVITY 14 AFFORDABILITY 16 BUYERS INSIGHT 18 PROPERTY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES 20 ABOUT RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP 22 UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY AHEAD 24 UDIA PARTNERS / 3 /
URBAN IQ ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE GROWTH/OUTPUT Economic activity contracted in the September quarter 2016, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falling by 0.47% from the previous quarter. This was attributed to declines in private investment in non dwelling construction (new buildings and new engineering) of 8.26% and Government (both federal and state/local) investment of 14.17%. Annual GDP at September 2016 increased by 2.49% from the corresponding figure at September 2015. Over the 12 months to September 2016, sectors of the economy that grew solidly were private consumption (+2.87%), public consumption (+3.89%), private dwelling investment (+9.43%), and exports (+6.57%). The Victorian economy has performed well, with annual State Final Demand (SFD) at September 2016 being 3.33% higher than the same figure at September 2015. This places Victoria third in SFD growth, behind New South Wales (4.68%) and the Australian Capital Territory (4.59%). INTEREST RATES After reducing the cash rate by 25 basis points in both May and August of 2016, the RBA has made no further changes, leaving the cash rate at a historical low of 1.50%. Below trend economic growth, and low wage growth have both resulted in weak inflationary pressures, which has led to the current low interest rate environment. With inflationary pressures expected to remain subdued through calendar 2017, debate will continue surrounding the likely next move of the RBA with opinion divided on whether the cash rate will remain steady or if a further one to two reductions will be required to stimulate the market in the second half of the year. The official standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers sits at 5.25%, while investor loans sits at 5.55%. With some bargaining, owner occupiers can obtain a discounted interest rate of 4.50% (investors can obtain 4.80%) from the major lenders. / 4 /
MODULES & SESSIONS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.5% across Australia and in Melbourne in the December quarter 2016, compared to the same quarter in 2015, below the RBA target band of 2-3%. In Melbourne, the CPI for housing (+2.5) and rents (1.6%) rose at a faster pace than overall CPI in the 2016 December quarter, highlighting strength of the housing market. EMPLOYMENT/WAGES Victoria experienced annual growth of 3.98% in the number of employed people at December 2016. However, the unemployment rate at December 2016 of 5.99% was slightly above the national rate (5.82%). Average weekly earnings for full time adults in Victoria was $1,513.60 at May 2016, representing an annual growth of 3.86%. CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely quoted barometer of consumer sentiment in Australia. A score of greater than 100 means that optimists out-number pessimists, with readings of below 100 indicating that pessimistic consumers are in the majority. Source: Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has decreased over the last two months, falling to 97.3 in December 2016. This suggests that a downward trend in consumer sentiment is coming through, with some volatility in both the domestic and international economy. UDIA PROPERTY URBAN IQ: PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 5 /
URBAN IQ ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE CONTINUED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE NAB s Business Survey has been tracking Australian business confidence levels for more than two decades. Businesses are approached quarterly, with two smaller monthly surveys conducted in the intervening months to capture changes on a more regular basis. The panel now exceeds 2,700 businesses. Source: National Australia Bank Business Survey The December result indicated a sharp spike in its index (+10.4) which is remarkable given the context of major uncertainties currently in play (both at home and abroad). Nevertheless, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more. The most recent outcome could indicate that businesses are more positive about the outlook than in recent months, however the authors of the index highlight caution that some aspects of the survey suggest the rebound might prove to be temporary. / 6 /
MODULES & SESSIONS POPULATION VICTORIA Victoria gained 31,808 people during the June quarter 2016 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,068,042 people. Victoria s estimated population growth over the twelve months to June 2016 of 123,131 people or 2.07%, were both the strongest amongst all states and territories. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics POPULATION COMPONENTS A breakdown of the three components of population growth shows that in the June quarter 2016 Victoria recorded: NATURAL INCREASE +14,903 persons over the quarter (+23.6%) +41,425 persons over the 12 months to June 2016 (+8.6%); reflects 27% of the national increase NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION +4,947 persons over the quarter (+12.8%) +16,699 persons over the 12 months to June 2016 (63.9%) NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION +11,461 persons over the quarter (-48.8%) +65,007 persons over the 12 months to June 2016 (+11.3%); Reflects 36% of the national intake well above the long term average of between 25-30% UDIA PROPERTY URBAN IQ: PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 7 /
URBAN IQ RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES Property prices in Melbourne have trended upwards since the middle of 2013, with detached houses achieving stronger growth than units. The established housing market to date remains robust when compared to other states with approximately 35,200 auctions held in Victoria in the 11 month period from January to November in 2016 with a clearance rate of 75% (REIV). Nevertheless, the number of auction sales from January to November 2016 is 12% lower than the corresponding period a year earlier, where the clearance rate was 74% (REIV). At December 2016 preliminary data recorded: - House prices rose to a median of $770,000 (+8.8% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) - Unit prices rose to a median of $563,500 (+5.3% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) - Land prices rose to a median of $235,000 (+9.8% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) The 9.8% growth recorded in the December quarter takes into account all growth corridors of Greater Melbourne. The overall gain consists of corridors recording rates between -6.5% (Melton) to 31.3% (Moorabool), which is largely dictated by the fundamentals of supply and demand for land in the corridor. / 8 /
Source: Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) and RPM Research Division Source: Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) and RPM Research Division / 9 /
URBAN IQ FINANCE ACTIVITY: VICTORIA LOANS BY DWELLING TYPE Improving state economic conditions and historically low borrowing costs have strengthened owner occupier demand through 2016. This is highlighted by total number of dwellings financed during the 12 months to November 2016 in Victoria increasing by a solid 7.7%, over the previous corresponding period, to 181,196 dwellings. Total dwellings financed in Victoria during the 3 months to November 2016 was similar to the previous corresponding 3 months a year earlier. However, this conceals the rebound in demand that occurred in November 2016, with the 16,206 dwellings financed over the month being almost 11% up on the number of dwellings financed in each of the preceding 4 months. More specifically, newly constructed dwellings and recently constructed dwellings (but have not been lived in) increased by 2.4% from the previous corresponding 3 months to November 2015 with the addition of 7,389 dwellings. Over the 12 months to November 2016, newly constructed dwellings increased by 8% with the addition of 29,068 dwellings. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / 10 /
VALUE OF LOANS BY PURCHASER TYPE The total value of owner occupier loans in the 3 months to November 2016 declined by a moderate 2.7% compared to the previous corresponding quarter a year earlier, although the annual value of owner occupier loans to November 2016 was still 11.6% higher than in the 12 month period to November 2015. The total value of loans to investors in the November quarter 2016 increased by a sizeable 16.2% compared to the November quarter 2015. This significant improvement can be aligned to investors being able to obtain finance through second tier banks. Nevertheless, the overall tighter lending restrictions to investors has impacted on the annual value of loans which has fallen by 6.3%. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / 11 /
URBAN IQ FINANCE ACTIVITY: VICTORIA CONTINUED NUMBER OF LOANS TO FIRST HOMEBUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOMEBUYERS The number of loans attributed to FHBs reached 6,607 loans over the September quarter 2016, which was identical to first homebuyer demand in the September quarter 2015. Dwellings financed to non-fhbs recorded 38,038 loans during September quarter 2016, reflecting a slight 2% increase on the same quarter in the previous year. With first homebuyer demand remaining stagnant, their overall share remains at a historical low (15% of total loans) which highlights current affordability constraints. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / 12 /
AVERAGE LOAN SIZE FIRST HOMEBUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOMEBUYERS The average loan size to FHBs in the September quarter 2016 remained steady, compared to the previous corresponding quarter, while the average loan size to non-fhbs fell by 2%. The divergence between the average loan amount to FHBs and non-fhbs widened through 2014 and 2015, and despite narrowing in 2016, this difference remains relatively large. At September 2016, the average loan size attributed to a non-fhb was $54,500 above the average loan size to FHBs ($320,533). Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics / 13 /
URBAN IQ BUILDING ACTIVITY: VICTORIA Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics APPROVALS Victoria recorded a relatively high 9,322 new detached house building approvals in the 3 months to November 2016, which was identical to house approval activity in the previous corresponding quarter. This highlights continuing demand for new housing. However, total approvals in the 3 months to November 2016 of 15,885 dwellings was a sizeable 11.2% below total dwelling approvals during the same 3 month period in 2015. This decline was primarily attributed to the significant 38.3% contraction in approvals of flats/units/apartments in buildings of 4 storeys and higher, albeit from record levels. During the 12 months to November 2016, there were 36,476 new detached houses approved, which reflects an increase of 7.1% on house approvals during the 12 months to November 2015. Over the same period, approvals of semidetached/row/terrace houses and townhouses escalated by 8.4%, although flat/ unit/apartment approvals declined by 19.8%. Overall, a total of 66,553 dwellings were approved in Victoria during the 12 months to November 2016, resulting in a small annual decline of 2.2%. / 14 /
COMMENCEMENTS Over the 2015/16 financial year in Victoria, detached house commencements increased by 9.7% to 35,520 starts, while multi unit dwelling commencements edged higher by just under 1.0% to 33,100 starts. As a result, total commencements escalated by 5.3% over 2015/16 to 68,620 dwellings, with this figure expected to be cyclical peak. Dwelling starts in Victoria are expected to remain strong in 2016/17, with commencements of 34,470 houses (-3.0%) and 30,360 multi-unit dwellings (-8.3%) equating to only moderate declines from the long term high volumes during the previous financial year. More substantial declines for commencements of both detached houses and multi unit dwellings are forecast in 2017/18, before dwelling starts moderate. Nevertheless, projected commencements during the 4 years to 2020/21 in Victoria will still be relatively high and support ongoing solid residential construction activity. Source: Housing Industry Association / 15 /
URBAN IQ AFFORDABILITY Over the past decade housing affordability has received an increasing share of media attention. Generally, FHBs are noted as the age cohort that bears the brunt of consistently increasing house prices. However, in more recent times the dialogue has shifted to include all age cohorts who particularly have a desire to reside in the middle ring of Melbourne but find it increasing unaffordable to do so. However, the silver lining for potential homebuyers is the vast range of new land estates available throughout the growth areas of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. This decent level of supply (courtesy of an active planning department) has resulted in intense developer competition which has kept prices in check and allowed for not only FHBs, but also other age cohorts the ability to select from a range of suburbs and lot sizes. Along with developer competition, there is a high level of competition amongst builders which has also allowed for potential savings for buyers. These positive variables, coupled with historical low interest rates have improved affordability levels. The common benchmark for identifying housing stress in Australia has historically been identified as those households that allocate at least 30% of disposable household income to finance their mortgage. This ratio has been in place for decades and in recent times there is a growing view that the ratio should be closer to 35% to reflect the market of today. The chart on the next page reflects 34 suburbs throughout the growth corridors of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. The proportion of income required to finance a mortgage was above 40% in Williams Landing, Greenvale, Roxburgh Park and Plumpton. All 4 of these suburbs currently contain limited supply of new residential lots, which has pushed their median land price above $300,000, and in the case of Williams Landing, above $400,000. The proportion of household income needed to service a mortgage was around 25% in suburbs within the Geelong region due to high household incomes, and in suburbs around the Melton township due to relatively less expensive land prices. Another 17 suburbs covered recorded a ratio of between 31-37%, which indicates a level that is starting to press households. However, the ratio could be far worse if it wasn t for the level of land supply that has come online in recent years. Nevertheless, if the roll out of PSPs slow, price pressures will adversely affect affordability levels. / 16 /
MODULES & SESSIONS Source: RBA, ATO and RPM Research Division CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS The chart above depicts the median land price by suburb/area, along with an indicative build cost of $200,000. The chart also assumes a 20% deposit has been paid and mortgage repayments are based on a 30 year loan at the current rate of 4.50%. In addition, we have used our internal buyer surveys to determine the median household income -- that is we have used the median income identified by individual corridors less tax to provide a more accurate level of disposable income. UDIA PROPERTY URBAN IQ: PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 17 /
URBAN IQ BUYERS INSIGHT BASED ON RPM ESTATES THROUGH THE MELBOURNE GROWTH CORRIDOR PURCHASER PROFILE Two countries accounted for a significant proportion of purchasers, with 23% born in Australia and 15% born in India. The next most common birthplace of purchasers was Philippines and Sri Lanka, with each accounting for 2% of homebuyers. People aged from 25 to 34 years old constituted 50% of all purchasers, with a further 32% of purchasers aged from 35 to 49 years old. This suggests a high incidence of young couples without children and couples with children purchasing homes. The majority of purchasers contained a household income of below $100,000, with 53% earning between $40,000 and $100,000, compared to 42% containing a household income of over $100,000. 2 car households constituted 59% of purchasers, with 30% having 1 car. This was the dominate mode of transport to a person s place of employment, with 87% of purchasers travelling by car to work. The Herald Sun was the most regularly read newspaper among 53% of purchasers, with a further 14% of purchasers regularly reading The Age newspaper. / 18 /
CONSUMER PREFERENCES The proportion of purchasers who considered the factors below as being important to very important in their purchase decision was: 94% for price 92% for block size 91% for parklands and open space 87% for fibre optic network 85% for estate amenity 81% for estate building design controls 76% for reputation of developer 76% for being familiar with the municipality/area 66% for estate facilities 64% for recycled water 36% for heritage and history PROXIMITY PREFERENCES The proportion of purchasers who considered it important to very important to be in close proximity to: Shops was 93% Major roads/freeways was 92% Community and recreational facilities was 86% Public transport was 82% Education/child care was 77% Friends and relatives was 67% Workplace was 64% Current residence was 42% Note: Results are based on 900+ surveys through the growth corridors of Melbourne and Geelong. / 19 /
URBAN IQ PROPERTY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRIBUTION PLAN (ICP) In October, the state Government introduced a standard ICP for Melbourne greenfield growth areas. Under the new system, the Standard Levy will be charged per net developable hectare in the greenfield growth areas of Melbourne as follows: $339,000 South East region $328,000 North and West region The Standard Levy will be effective immediately and the contributions will go towards essential local infrastructure items including community and recreation construction, transport construction and public land. / 20 /
VICTORIAN PLANNING AUTHORITY In December 2016, the Brompton Lodge Precinct Structure Plan was completed. Once complete, the region will provide around 400 jobs and house an estimated 4,100 people in 1,500 dwellings. The Beveridge Central Precinct Structure Plan was released for review in November. It is envisaged that the PSP will contain more than 3,600 dwellings and house approximately 10,200 people. Also released in October was the VPAs 2016/17 work program. This includes the VPA greenfield projects as referred to in the below graph. Source: Victorian Planning Authority / 21 /
ABOUT RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP RPM is a dynamic, results-driven residential sales agency with a strong commitment to creating researchbacked strategies that deliver higher revenues, faster sales rates and better returns for our clients. Founded over two decades ago as a residential land sales specialist, today RPM Real Estate Group has grown to encompass over 100 employees across six specialist divisions. We manage a portfolio of 32 developments across Melbourne and Greater Geelong including land estates, apartments and townhouses. At RPM, our difference lies not only in our experience and in-house capabilities, but our passion for the people within our business as well as our valued clients. Through our dedication to creating a culture of enthusiastic and committed property experts, we are proud to have built a team with expertise spanning all facets of property sales, research and advisory services. Our continued expansion and reinvestment into our research services mean we offer unsurpassed market intelligence and data-driven insights to our clients, to help drive the continued growth of their projects and asset portfolio. A full-service agency, we pride ourselves on advising our clients through every step of the process; from the initial site diligence, acquisitions and master-planning, through to the launch and sales strategies and ongoing marketing. / 22 /
THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FOR PROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT. RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP ONE OF VICTORIA S LARGEST RESIDENTIAL SALES AGENCIES SELLING APPROXIMATELY 25% OF ALL RESIDENTIAL LOTS IN 2015/16 OVER 4,600 LOT SALES IN THE PAST YEAR OVER $1 BILLION IN LAND SALES IN THE PAST YEAR 100 PLUS STRONG TEAM 32 ACTIVE PROJECTS 42,000 TOTAL YIELD OF CURRENT PROJECTS FIVE UDIA AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE CONTACT RPM P: +613 9862 9555 F: +613 9862 9512 E: ENQUIRIES@RPMREALESTATE.COM.AU W: WWW.RPMREALESTATE.COM.AU / 23 /
UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY AHEAD These principles will guide UDIA as we embark on a journey of growth and as we solidify our long term, sustainable position as the urban development industry s association of choice. LEADERSHIP Drive the thought leadership agenda and exercise tangible influence with government and other stakeholders EXPERTISE AND INNOVATION Offer innovative membership services that respond to the changing needs of our industry INFLUENCE Be known as the pre-eminent expert organisation on housing and urban development INDUSTRY SUCCESS Advance and support the industry in the public arena and facilitate industry recognition and promotion KNOWLEDGE Be the go-to organisation for industry knowledge and business building insights DEEPLY CONNECTED Facilitate a fruitful business environment by connecting industry and government stakeholders LOYALTY Possess a deeply loyal membership base as a result of consistently providing solid member services
MODULES & SESSIONS URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA (VIC) udiavic.com.au +61 3 9832 9600 info@udiavic.com.au Designed by Blaze: blazeadvertising.com.au VICTORIA UDIA PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 2016 / 25 /