Q1 2015 OFFICE LIMA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT CURRENT OUTLOOK INDICATORS PRIME MARKET Q4-2014 Q1-2015 VACANCY RATE NET ABSORPTION NEW SUPPLY RENTAL PRICE INDICATORS B+ MARKET Q4-2014 Q1-2015 VACANCY RATE NET ABSORPTION RENTAL PRICE Peru s economic performance to date shows a slow recovery of its productive sectors. Thus, with a growth rate closing at 2.4% of GDP in 2014 (2.1% in the construction sector), and with expansion this year of 1.62% in January, 0.9% in February and an estimated 1.2% in March, the dynamism of the real estate market has been cooling because of the lower demand for housing and corporate offices (both in private investment and consumption) and lower infrastructure spending by the Government in the last quarter. In addition, a slight tendency to the rise is noted in the prices of building materials, which have increased by 0.51% after falling by 0.47% in February. According CAPECO, the construction market will experience a growth of 9% in 2015, mainly because of the resumption of public investment in infrastructure, expected as of the second quarter of this year. It is important to not lose sight of the imminent start of the election period (general elections 2016), which entails, as we have seen historically, fluctuations in expectations regarding economic and social management by the new government. The real estate sector generates products that mature or materialize in the medium term, and therefore is more susceptible to variations in the political and economic landscape. The office placements dynamic continues to be slow, slower even than in the first quarter of 2014 when net office absorption was 7,500 m2 while in the first quarter of 2015 it was only 2,400 sqm. Through March (Q1 2015), no new prime office buildings entered the market, whereas in the sub-prime segment (class B+) the Plexus building, located in the San Miguel area, began operations. The prime office inventory is 617,646 sqm distributed in 55 buildings, registering a vacancy level of 7.8% (48,313 sqm) and falling relative to the end of 2014 (8.1%) mainly due to the non entry of new supply. The average rental price (list price) in the Q1 2015 is US$20.31/ sqm/month (US$22.80/ sqm/month at the end of 2014). During the second quarter 2015, the prime sector buildings Lima Central Tower (Nuevo Este area) and Leuro (Miraflores area) would begin operations, with which the net asset would increase by approximately 69,000 sqm in offices. In the class B+ office segment, the entry of a new building was recorded during the first quarter 2015. This was the Plexus building, located in the sub-market of San Miguel which has 8,500 sqm of office space. Thus, the total B+ office inventory is now 333,134 sqm, and is distributed in 49 buildings. The vacancy rate in the B+ segment is 8.1%, equivalent to 27,090 sqm, having increased from the 6.0% level with which it closed 2014, due to the entry of this new addition to the available supply. The average rental price (list price) is US$19.20/ sqm /month (US$19.88 in Q4 2014). The B+ building projects with approaching delivery dates (Q2 2015) are Mayor Blondet (Sanhattan area), 28 de Julio and CE Abril (Miraflores area), Torre Tanguis (San Borja area) and Aliaga Business Center (Magdalena area). Altogether these projects will increase the inventory of B+ offices by approximately 26,000 sqm. www.colliers.com/peru
LIMA OFFICE SUB-MARKETS Lima - Office Submarket SANHATTAN SAN ISIDRO GOLF MIRAFLORES SAN BORJA CHACARILLA MAGDALENA SAN MIGUEL NUEVO ESTE Prime Office Market in Lima - 1st Quarter 2015 / Existing buildings Submarket Stock or Number of Rental Rate Vacancy Rate (%) Net Absorption (sqm) Inventory (sqm) Buildings () A+ A A+ A A+ A Total A+ A Total A+ A Sanhattan 129,282 126,843 8 10 5.1% 10.2% 7.6% -3,214-1,173-4,387 22.82 20.51 San Isidro Golf 45,374 66,633 3 12 9.9% 0.5% 4.3% 1,728 2,767 4,494 22.90 22.70 Miraflores 26,994 44,734 2 4 10.1% 4.6% 6.7% 159 0 159 20.96 20.62 San Borja - 13,715-2 0.0% 0.0% - - - - - - Chacarilla - 10,398-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 79 79 - - Magdalena - 11,644-1 0.0% 5.2% 5.2% - -602-602 - 21.00 San Miguel - - - - 0.0% 0.0% - - - - - - Nuevo Este 62,645 79,384 4 8 28.3% 1.0% 13.0% 1,259 557 1,815 0 18.67 Subtotal 264,295 353,351 17 38 11.9% 4.7% -70 1,627 20.25 20.42 Total 617,646 55 7.8% 7.8% 1,558 1,558 20.31 The prices are list prices in existing offices available for rent. The prices apply to unfurnished offices pending implementation. The rent prices do not include parking spaces. The values shown are the average prices in each area. The respective tax must be added. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 2
B+ Office Market in Lima - 1st Quarter 2015 / Existing buildings Number of Vacancy Net Absorption (m 2 ) () Month Rent Rate Submarket Stock (sqm) Vacancy (%) Buildings (sqm) Sanhattan 155,975 20 9,353 6.0% -362 19.82 STANDARD TERMS & DEFINITIONS San Isidro Golf 82,486 13 0 0.0% 701 - Miraflores 39,153 8 4,373 11.2% 353 20.15 San Borja 10,365 2 - - - - Chacarilla 2,100 1 - - - - Magdalena - - - - - - San Miguel 8,497 1 8,359 98.4% 138 0 Nuevo Este 34,557 4 5,006 14.5% 0 0 Total 333,134 49 27,090 8.1% 831 19.20 The prices are list prices in existing offices available for rent. The prices apply to unfurnished offices pending implementation. The rent prices do not include parking spaces. The values shown are the average prices in each area. The respective tax must be added. Evolution of the Prime Office Market. Office area (sqm) in existence, under construction and planned. Serviceable office space (sqm) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Sanhattan SIG Miraflores San Borja Chacarilla Magdalena Nuevo Este Currently 2015 2016 2017 Of the spaces to be delivered in 2016, 90% are already under construction. Some 75% of the spaces (m2) in offices scheduled to start operations in 2017, are still in the drawing-board stage. Only 25% of these are already under construction. Prime Market: the market consisting of A and A+ class office buildings. Stock or Inventory: amount of square meters that are finished, delivered and operating in the market. Future Supply: amount of square meters being built, or in the project stage, yet to be delivered to the market. Absorption: amount of square meters that is occupied during a specific time frame (month, trimester, year). Vacancy: amount of square meters that is available for lease or sale. Vacancy Rate: percentage of square meters of the Stock available for lease or sale. Listing or Asking Price: price at which an office is offered in the market and is open for negotiation. Closing price: price at which a lease or sale transaction of an office is settled. Projects being marketed in Lima - 1st Quarter 2015 List Prices in buildings in the drawing-board and/or construction stage Submarket CLASS A+ Sale Price CLASS A+ Rent Price CLASS A Sale Price CLASS A Rent Price CLASS B+ Sale Price CLASS B+ Rent Price Sanhattan 2,416 22.66 2,312 21.57 2,296 21.00 San Isidro Golf - - - - - - Miraflores - 21.82 2,245-2,322 - San Borja - - - 21.00 2,278 - Chacarilla - - - - - - Magdalena - - 1,904 20.14 2,066 - San Miguel - - - - 1,800 - Nuevo Este 2,320 20 - - 2,200 - Average 2,356 22.12 1,997 20.99 2,084 21.00 The prices are list prices in buildings in the drawing-board and/or construction stage that are currently being marketed. The prices apply to unfurnished offices pending implementation. The prices do not include parking spaces. The values shown are the average list prices in each area. The respective tax must be added. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3
Availability Rate by Class Prime Market Vacancy 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ytd A+ A Total Rental Price - Prime Market 24.00 22.00 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 0 0 16.00 14.00 PRIME MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND During the first months of 2015, no change in the total inventory or stock of prime office space was recorded, which remained at 55 buildings for a total of 617,646 sqm. The influx of new buildings scheduled for the first quarter of this year has not materialized and will take effect during the second quarter, and thus no new supply or new square meters of office space is observed. The vacancy rate fell by 0.3 from 8.1% (Q4 2014) to 7.8% (Q1 2015). The upwards trend of this indicator will resume with the entry of new buildings during the second quarter, as new available square meters will enter the market and a significant increase in the vacancy level is expected. Of the total current availability (48,313 sqm), 41% is in the Sanhattan area (19,580 sqm), and 38% (18,486 sqm) is in the Nuevo Este sub-market. The Miraflores area has 10% (4,811 sqm) of the availability, the same ratio as shown in the San Isidro Golf area (4,834 sqm), whereas only 1% (602 sqm) is in the Magdalena area. The net absorption recorded during Q1 2015 was 1,558 sqm (2,777 sqm in the same period of last year - Q1 2014), with unoccupied spaces being observed in the Sanhattan area. 12.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ytd A+ A Total Marketing of Existing Buildings Price Range by Corridor in the Prime Market 30.0 25.0 Rental - List Price 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Total Availability in the Prime Market - Distribution by Sub-market in Q1 2015 NUEVO ESTE 38% 23.0 23.0 21.0 21.0 22.0 20.2 21.0 SH SIG MIR MAG NE SANHATTAN 41% PRIME MARKET PRICES In prime buildings currently operating, at the end of Q1 2015 the average monthly rent (list price) is US$20.31/ sqm (US$20.80 in 4Q 2014), with the average value in Class A+ buildings being US$20.25/sqm (US$20.92 in 4Q 2014), and in class A buildings, US$20.42/sqm (US$20.58 in 4Q 2014). The average rent price per month (list prices) observed in this quarter ranges from US$18/sqm in the Nuevo Este area to US$23/sqm in the Sanhattan and San Isidro Golf areas. In prime buildings that are marketed at the project and/or construction stage, the average monthly rent (list price) is US$21.72/sqm (US$21.89 in Q4 2014), with A+ buildings having an average price of US$22.12/sqm (US$22.39 in Q4 2014) and buildings in Class A, US$20.99/sqm (US$20.83 in Q4 2014). As for the marketing for sale of prime projects, the observed average price (list price) is US$2,223/sqm (US$2,214 in Q4 2014), with the average price for A+ buildings being US$2,356/sqm (US$2,339 in Q4 2014), and for class A buildings, US$1,998/sqm (US$1,993 in Q4 2014). The highest average sales price (list price) is found in the Sanhattan area with US$2,416/sqm, whereas the lowest average price (list price) is found in the Magdalena area, with US$1,903/sqm. MAGDALENA 1% MIRAFLORES 10% SAN ISIDRO GOLF 10% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 4
B+ MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND With the entry of the Plexus building in the San Miguel area, the total inventory of B+ offices in the first quarter of 2015 is now 333,134/sqm, distributed in 49 buildings. It is estimated that during 2015 this segment will see its stock increased by about 26,000 sqm with the entry of 5 new projects which will be operating in the Sanhattan, Miraflores, San Borja and Magdalena areas. The level of availability or vacancy is at 8.1% (27,090 sqm) with respect to inventory; this indicator at the end of 2014 was at 6.0%. Of the total spaces available in the B+ segment, 35% (9,353 sqm) are in the Sanhattan area and 31% are in the San Miguel area (8,359 sqm). In the sub-market of Nuevo Este, 18% (5,006 sqm) of the availability can be found, whereas 16% (4,373 sqm) is located in the Miraflores area. B+ MARKET PRICES The average price of rent (list price) in operative buildings is of US$19.20/sqm/month (US$19.88 in Q4 2014), varying in the range from US$18/sqm/month observed in the areas of Sanhattan and San Miguel, to US$22/sqm which is the offered price in some buildings in Sanhattan. In buildings that are marketed in the draft and/or construction stage, the average rental price (list price) is US$21.00/sqm remaining at that figure since the previous quarter. Regarding selling prices, the average price for projects is of US$2,084/ sqm (US$2,009 in Q4 2015). Availability Rate - B+ Market Rental Price - B+ Market 14.0% Vacancy 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 24.00 22.00 0 0 16.00 14.00 2.0% 12.00 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ytd 10.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ytd B+ Distribution of the Current Availability - B+ Market Q1 2015 Existing Buildings - Price Range by Corridor in the B+ Market SAN MIGUEL 31% NUEVO ESTE 18% SANHATTAN 35% MIRAFLORES 16% Rental - List Price 24.0 22.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 22.0 21.0 SH MIR SM NE COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5
FORECAST In early 2015, the office market conditions had not changed significantly in relation to the existing trends and the situation observed in 2014. In Q1 2015 a net absorption of 1,558 sqm was recorded, lower than that recorded in the same period in 2014; the placements do not have the dynamism shown in prior periods and the signs of mobility that occurred towards the end of 2014 did not continue in the following months. Gradual -and slow- absorption is a characteristic of the over-supply phase, accompanied by vacancy levels above 12% and price adjustments. Although in the first quarter of 2015 availability decreased by 0.3pp, it should be noted that the expected entry of new supply did not occur, as there are projects that have delayed the start of their operations including since last year, and to these buildings should be added the additional buildings scheduled to enter this year. In this manner, we will have a better picture regarding the tendencies and dynamics of the business. In recent previous editions we have been saying that the pre-positioning in the new projects entering the market has been decreasing, and in this scenario, the buildings that begin operations add to the available space (sqm) increasing the vacancy. During Q2 2015 the Lima Central Tower (Nuevo Este area) and Leuro (Miraflores area) projects totaling about 70,000 sqm of prime office space will make their entry, and it is estimated that this development will mean a significant concurrent increase in availability at the end of the first half of this year. According to the advances in the construction of the projects monitored, in the second half of 2015 approximately 150,000 sqm of prime office space would be entering, distributed in the various areas as follows: Sanhattan (86,000 sqm), Miraflores (6,000 sqm), Magdalena (30,000 sqm), San Borja (5,500 sqm) and Nuevo Este (21,000 sqm). In the course of the following months a better assessment of these estimates may be had, as there may be delays (unexpected); however, 100% of these spaces are at an advanced works stage. It will be a challenging year for the office market and the country in general. It will be essential to recover long-term expectations and analyze market behavior to in order to identify the niches and developments to be undertaken when the times are right; this, because we believe in the fundamentals and when one believes in the fundamentals and the long term, a simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when other are fearful Warren Buffett. At the macro level: A pre-electoral or an electoral year -depending on how you look at it- an opportunity for recovering the appeal as an investments plaza, for long-term planning, for including the demographic bonus in the equation, for encouraging consumption through credit, and for promoting the continuation of the flight to quality (taking up better spaces). Pending tasks for us all. Prime (A+, A) and Sub-prime (B+) Markets. Inventory and availability in m2 of serviceable offices OFFICE SQM 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 31,551 264,295 16,762 27,090 353,351 333,134 Availability Inventory 485 offices in 63 countries in 6 continents $ 2.1 billion annual income 442.4 million square meters under management 15,800 professionals PERÚ: Lima Eric Rey de Castro Managing Director Av. San Borja Norte 793 San Borja, Lima 41 TEL 511 224 0804 FAX 511 224 0505 RESEARCHER: Lima Sandro Vidal Crovetto Knowledge Manager Av. Manuel Olguín 501 Oficina 502 Surco, Lima 33 TEL 511 399 3350 This report has been prepared by Colliers International Peru for general information only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant or represent that the information contained in this document is correct. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com.pe. Colliers International provides real estate services globally through 15,800 specialized professionals in over 485 offices in 63 countries. Colliers has an income of up to $ 2.1 billion, and over 442 million square meters under management. 50,000 0 A+ A B+ MARKET SEGMENT Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 6