Bakersfield the higher cost of leasing in the submarket is unlikely to hinder demand as CRC s lease expirations create more available inventory within the University Centre Submarket. Mark J. Smith, SIOR Principal 661 616 3561 marks@asuassociates.com CA RE #00632003 Martin J. Starr Principal 661 616 3567 mjstarr@asuassociates.com CA RE #01179469 Matthew E. Starr CCIM, SIOR Principal 661 616 3570 matthew@asuassociates.com CA RE #01367855 Natalie L. Stevens Associate 661 616 3571 natalie@asuassociates.com CA RE #01477239 11601 Bolthouse Drive Suite 110 Bakersfield, CA 93311 661 862 5454 main 661 862 5444 fax
Bakersfield Market The third quarter of 2018 followed the overall trend of the calendar year 2018 moderate and steady tenant activity reducing vacancy across the Bakersfield Office Market. The announcement in the first half of 2018 of the sale of the State Farm Building at 900 Old River Road to California Resources Corporation was the most significant news that will affect the office market over the next few years. The impact of the bulk space that could be offered at 900 Old River Road and the likely staggered roll out of CRC s leased space in the University Centre Submarket, as early as the second quarter of 2019, reduces the likelihood that we will see construction of new general office product not tied to a build-to-suit end user. This has been the norm since the market entered the recession phase in 2008, with very few speculative developments occurring over the last decade. That being said, the University Centre Submarket is once again starved for available space for tenants desiring to locate in the area. At the end of the third quarter, vacancy rates are under 5% for the first time since 2016 as the strongest office submarket continues its historical trends. This leads us to believe the higher cost of leasing in the submarket is unlikely to hinder demand as CRC s lease expirations create more available inventory within the University Centre Submarket., The overall impact of new vacancy is more likely to affect the Central and Southwest Submarkets negatively. Solid Office Leasing For 2018 Continues Along with the strength of the University Centre Submarket, Class A space in Bakersfield overall is being absorbed at a faster clip than other types of space within the market. Class A office space is typically better quality and will be offered at higher rental rates. Is this a sign that our economic conditions are improving? It is something that we will continue to monitor. If vacancy tightens enough, it will invariably lead to increases in offering rental rates and the reduction of concessions for tenants included within lease negotiations. The overall vacancy rate is 9.22% at the end of the third quarter noting that no Class A sector of any submarket reaches as high as a 9% vacancy rate and a combined Class A vacancy rate of 5.30%. There is softness in the Class B and Class C levels of office space. The Central Bakersfield Submarket is the slowest in terms of leasing activity as we see the continued movement of office users flowing towards the suburban submarkets. Combined with limited parking, much of the available downtown inventory is within older buildings that lack the modern upgrades and energy efficiency that is more readily available in the suburban submarkets, the Central Submarket sits with just over 11% vacancy, greatly influenced by the dormant Class C product. We watch with great interest to see if the fourth quarter 2018 will continue the positive trends we have experience in 2018 thus far. Current Conditions As we have seen throughout 2018, moderate increases in active tenant demand, mostly from smaller tenants less than 5,000 square feet. Improving vacancy with an expectation for increased 2019 vacancy rates. Potential for increases in leasing rental rates if current conditions continue into early to mid 2019. Expectations for new construction will be tied to BTS end users, with only potential spec development tied to medical development product offered for sale. Most demand has been focused on Class A offerings with modern amenities.
Market Summary Net Absorption 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Office Group Lease Transactions Market Summary & Transactions ASU Commercial represented both the landlord and the tenant in the extension of the lease for Cannon Corporation at 4540 California Avenue. Represented the owner of the building at 1500 Haggin Oaks Boulevard in the leasing of approximately 2,300 SF of ground floor office space. ASU Commercial represented both the landlord and tenant in the leasing of over 13,000 SF of professional office space on the second floor at 9201 Camino Media. Represented the landlord in multiple leases in excess of 7,000 SF in the Triangle Building at 5201 California Avenue. ASU Commercial exclusively represented the tenant in leasing the second and third floors at 9600 Ming Avenue in the University Centre Submarket. Represented the ownership interest of S.A. Camp Companies in leasing 6,000 SF in the building located at 1100 17th Street in Central Bakersfield. Assisted both the landlord and Acrisure of California, LLC in extending the term of lease at 9201 Camino Media. Represented the master tenant in a sublease of approximately 2,100 SF of office space at 4015 Coffee Road in Northwest Bakersfield. Negotiated a lease extension for Principal Life Insurance Company at 4900 California Avenue. Represented the owner of GEM Discover Plaza in renewal of a lease with Kaiser Foundation Health Plan at 1200 Discovery Drive. Negotiated the lease of 2,500 SF of office space to Integrity Family Health Network at Westpark Business Plaza. Office Group Sales Transactions ASU Commercial proudly represented the Kern High School District in the acquisition of approximately 77 acres in southeast Bakersfield to accommodate the district s potential future expansion and construction of a high school facility. Represented the buyer in the acquisition of a 2225 19th Street, an approximate 2,200 SF medical building in downtown Bakersfield. Negotiated the sale and disposition of an approximate ¾ acre parcel of land on J Street in Tehachapi, CA.
Submarket Summary SUBMARKETS RBA AVAILABLE SF VACANCY % AVERAGE RENT ABSORPTION Southwest A 1,170,808 13,455 8.83% 2.07 69,566 Southwest B 1,273,145 191,346 15.03% 1.82 (57,412) Southwest C 789,617 47,674 6.04% 1.48 9,754 SOUTHWEST TOTALS 3,233,570 342,455 10.59% 1.82 21,908 Central A 1,413,815 72,884 5.16% 2.04 (5,193) Central B 1,132,000 82,522 7.29% 1.84 91,376 Central C 844,426 217,686 25.78% 1.49 (15,780) CENTRAL TOTALS 3,390,241 373,092 11.00% 1.85 70,403 University Centre A 1,641,523 29,372 1.79% 2.56 31,532 University Centre B 223,685 46,932 20.98% 2.38 29,601 UNIVERSITY TOTALS 1,865,208 76,304 4.09% 2.54 61,133 Northwest 698,233 55,539 7.95% 2.18 9,302 NORTHWEST TOTAL 698,233 55,539 7.95% 2.18 9,302 GRAND TOTAL 9,187,252 847,390 9.22% 2.02 162,746 Overall A 4,924,379 261,230 5.30% 2.24 105,207 Overall B 2,628,830 320,800 12.20% 1.87 63,565 Overall C 1,634,043 265,360 16.24% 1.48 (6,026) *Absorption square footage and percentage are compared to previous quarter **Average rent is full service gross
Office Vacancy Statistics Chart 12.00% 11.23% 10.43% 10.67% 10.27% 10.36% 10.00% 9.68% 9.86% 9.92% 9.70% 8.00% 8.96% 8.80% 8.68% 8.47% 9.11% 9.00% 9.22% University Centre 6.00% Northwest Southwest Central Overall Bakersfield Office Market 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1Q/11 3Q/11 1Q/12 3Q/12 1Q/13 3Q/13 1Q/14 3Q/14 1Q/15 3Q/15 1Q/16 3Q/16 1Q/17 3Q/17 2Q/18 3Q/18
Team Mark J. Smith, SIOR Principal Martin J. Starr Principal Office Services Group ASU Commercial is a full services office brokerage team with more than 60 years of combined experience in the local Bakersfield market to assist you with your real estate needs. Our group provides representation and consultation services for both landlords and tenants. We also actively represent buyers and sellers of both commercial office investment properties and owner/user office facilities. Success can be measured by many things, however, we believe the best measurement is the duration of our relationships with our clients. Ultimately, our success can only come through their success. ASU Commercial is dedicated to establishing long-lasting client relationships and maintaining a strong commitment to our growing community. For more information regarding our services, please contact the Office Services Group at 661.862.5454. The information contained herein may have been obtained from sources other than ASU Commercial. We have not verified such information and make no guarantees, warranties or representations about such information. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness prior to purchasing/leasing the property. Matthew E. Starr, CCIM, SIOR Principal Natalie L. Stevens Associate