JULY 2016
With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007. - Lawrence Yun NAR s Chief Economist
Now in its seventh year, the US economic recovery shows signs of slowing in the face of a strong dollar, a weakening global economy, and low energy prices. But as household growth continues to gain momentum, the housing sector should be an engine of growth. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
Demand for homes has been especially strong as more Americans find work, wages edge higher and mortgage rates remain historically low. We still have some ground to make up but housing remains a bright spot in the economy. - Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac Freddie Mac 7/2016
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average of All Four 2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.00 2017 1Q 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.08 2017 2Q 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.28 2017 3Q 3.8 4.6 4.7 N/A 4.37 7/2016
Homeownership is an achievement to be proud of a dream come true Ipsos
Buying a home is an excellent long-term investment because it is likely to increase in value over time and it is one of the best ways for people to build wealth and assets: MacArthur Foundation
The bigger question is whether the housing crash diminished the general appeal of homeownership. The available evidence suggests that it has not. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
% of Renters Who Prefer to Own Increasing Federal Reserve Bank of New York
% of Renters Who Plan to Buy Increasing Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The more sustainable housing markets should allow for positive feedback loops in local economies, with strengthening job and income gains for residential real estate agents, mortgage bankers and home improvement workers. - David Berson, Nationwide's SVP & Chief Economist
2016 Pending Home Sales over the last 18 months 2015 2014
Buyer Traffic By State NAR
Seller Traffic By State NAR
0.4% June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -1.1% -1.7% -1.9% -1.5% -2.2% -3.1% -3.8% -3.6% -4.7% -4.5% HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months -9.6% NAR 7/2016
The stock of existing homes for sale declined 1.9 percent last year, to 2.1 million units. Supply stood at 4.8 months, making 2015 the fourth consecutive year that inventories held below the 6.0-month level, the conventional measure of a balanced market. - Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University
Many owners aren t moving on from their current homes, which is holding back available inventory for both first time and move up buyers. With values on the rise, this could prove to be an ideal time to sell especially in the hot markets where owners could get more than they expected. - Bob Walters Quicken Loans Chief Economist
The primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize. - Lawrence Yun Chief Economist NAR
Significant Equity By State CoreLogic
Positive Equity Share By State CoreLogic
The CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 5.5% year over year through the first quarter. If home values rise another 5% uniformly across the U.S., the number of underwater borrowers will fall by another one million during the next year. - Anand Nallathambi President and CEO of CoreLogic
Buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find slashed prices, more options and less competition. It's a much different story for entry-level buyers, who will be up against rising prices, low inventory and tough competition, with homes selling over asking price in many of the nation's hottest housing markets. - Zillow
Number of Homes for Sale 2016 versus 2012 by category Trulia
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES by category Zillow
Thinking about the housing crisis that started in 2008, when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes, I think the housing crisis is pretty much over MacArthur Foundation
How Many Americans Don t Know? 54% 59% 40%???????????? Fannie Mae
Percentage who believe a 20% down payment is required to purchase a home Ipsos
The high median credit scores are due to many millennials believing they won t qualify with the score they have - and are waiting to apply for a mortgage until they have the score they think they need. - Jonas Moe Ellie Mae Senior VP
Consumers are cautious more than they have been in the past and thus the self-sidelining of cautious/discouraged consumers makes it appear as if credit is tightening. More consumer education such as counseling and financial literacy programs could be as or more successful in raising origination levels than introducing new lending products with lower credit standards. CoreLogic MarketPulse Report
The average LTV ratio for those applying for a mortgage loan in the last three months by generation CoreLogic
Percentage of loan applications in previous 90-day cycle that have closed Ellie Mae
Have the market information in visual form and at your fingertips
Average Days on the Market By State NAR
5,600,000 5,500,000 EXISTING 5,400,000 5,300,000 Home Sales 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700,000 4,600,000 4,500,000 4,400,000 Since January 2014 4,300,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016
5500000 EXISTING Home Sales 5000000 4500000 Since January 2012 4000000 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016
EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region 11.6% 4.5% 3.2% 6.5% U.S. Midwest West South Northeast -1.7% NAR 7/2016
Total Home Sales in thousands 451 470 497 527 542 577 320 341 340 359 January February March April May 2015 2016 Freddie Mac
Existing Home Sales in thousands 2015 2016 January February March April May June July August September October November December Freddie Mac
New Home Sales in thousands 2015 2016 January February March April May June July August September October November December Freddie Mac
New Home Sales Annualized in thousands Jun-14 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census
New Home 33% Sales % of sales by price range 24% 14% 4% 9% 10% 6% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-$299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Census
New Homes Selling Fast (median months from completion to sold) 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census
110 PENDING Home Sales since 2012 105 100 100 = Historically Healthy Level 95 90 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016
114 112 110 PENDING Home Sales since 2014 108 106 104 102 100 98 100 = Historically Healthy Level 96 94 92 90 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016
PENDING Home Sales 0.6% U.S. 0.0% West Midwest -0.2% Northeast South -0.1% -1.8% Year-Over-Year By Region NAR 7/2016
35% Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 10% 7% January 2012 - Today Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016
Home Prices
EXISTING Home Prices Y-O-Y by region 7.7% 4.7% 5.9% 4.8% -0.1% U.S. Northeast West South Midwest NAR 7/2016
% Change in Sales from last year 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% by Price Range 12.0% 8.2% -1.6% $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -1.6% 8.2% 17.1% 16.5% 15.0% 12.0% NAR 7/2016
0.14 0.12 Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE 0.1 CHANGES 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
13.2% 12.9% 12.4% 10.8% 9.3% Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite 8.1% 6.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2014 2015 2016 S&P Case Shiller 7/2016
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State CoreLogic
Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates -1.4-2.33-2 -1.98-1.87-1.8-1.75-1.99-2.17-1.95-1.89-2.65 Last 12 Months Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar April May Jun % -1.4-2.33-2.65-2 -1.98-1.87-1.8-1.75-1.99-2.17-1.95-1.89 Quicken Loans
HOUSING INVENTORY
Seller Traffic By State NAR
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE 2011 - Today January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 NAR 7/2016
5.0 5.1 5.1 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Last 12 Months 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May NAR 7/2016
6 Months Inventory of 5.5 HOMES FOR SALE last 2 years 5 4.5 4 3.5 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May NAR 7/2016
0.4% June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -1.1% -1.7% -1.9% -1.5% -2.2% -3.1% -3.8% -3.6% -4.7% -4.5% HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months -9.6% NAR 7/2016
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJuneJuly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May % -24% -20. -16. -14%-13% -7.6-5% -6.2 1.8%0.9%5.0%1.6%7.3%5.3%3.2%6.5% 6% 5.5%5.8%4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.5-0.5-0.5 2% -0.9 1.80 0.40-4.7-1.7-3.1-4.5-1.9-3.8-2.2-1.1-1.5-3.6-9.6 NAR 7/2016
New Home Inventory months supply 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2015 2016 Census
New Home Inventory months supply Last 12 Months 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.3 4.9 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Census
BUYER DEMAND
Buyer Traffic By State NAR
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales Last 12 Months June July August September October November December January 2016 February March April May NAR 7/2016
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales 2015 2016 January 2015 February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 7/2016
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 NAR 7/2016
INTEREST RATES
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac Freddie Mac 7/2016
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average of All Four 2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 2017 1Q 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.08 2017 2Q 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.28 2017 3Q 3.8 4.6 4.7 N/A 4.37 7/2016
Mortgage Rates 2017 Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate 2015 2016 - Actual - Projected 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Rate 3.7 3.8 4 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 Freddie Mac
Mortgage Credit Availability YES NO MAYBE
Mortgage Credit Availability Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association MBA
Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) MBA
Average Days To Close A Loan Last 12 Months 49 49 50 48 48 47 46 46 46 45 44 44 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
727 725 FICO Score Requirements Last 12 months 724 724 723 723 722 722 722 721 720 719 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 Feb March April May All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO Score 31.9% Distribution 22.1% 24.0% 8.8% 12.8% 0.02% 0.5% 500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+ 54.9% All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average FICO Score for Closed Purchase Loans 724 754 by Loan Type 707 686 All Loans Conventional FHA VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type 38 34 41 40 All Loans Conventional FHA VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Resources Slide Slide Title Link 4 Lawrence Yun Quote http://www.realtor.org/news-releases /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years 5,11,19 JCHS Harvard Quote http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/jchs_2016_state_of_the_nations_housing_lowres.pdf 6 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html 7, 75 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 8, 76 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/housi ng_forecast_062016.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/201606-outlook-06%2028%2016.pdf https://www.mba.org/documents/r esearch/mtg%20fin%20forecast% 20Jun% 202016.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/r eports/2016/em bargoes/forecast-06-2016-us- economic-outl ook-06-29-2016.pdf 9, 30 Ipsos Survey https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/pr ess/2016/homeownershipsurvey06142016.pdf 10,28 Buying A Home is Good Investment, Is Crisis Over? https://www.macfound.org/media/files/e-how_h ousing_m atters_national _Full_Report.pdf 12, 13 New York Fed Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2016/an160602 14 David Berson Quote http://www.dsnews.com/news/06-28-2016/housing-market-weathering-ongoing-headwinds 15 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org 16-17, 39, 61,70 Buyer & Seller Traffic, Avg Days on the Market http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index 18 Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.org 20 Bob Walter Quote, Appraisal Gap http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/06/14/owners-wester n-cities-underestimate-value-appraisers-homes/ 21 Lawrence Yun Quote http://www.realtor.org/news-releases /2016/06/existing- home-sal es-grow-18-percent-in-may-highest-pace-in-over-nine-years 22-23, 24 CoreLogic Equity Report http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/homeowner-equity-report.aspx# 25,27 Zillow Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2016-06- 24-Entry-Lev el-prices-continue-to-soar-while-top- of-the-market-stabilizes KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Resources Slide Slide Title Link 26 Number of Homes For Sale http://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/inventory-2q2016/ 31 Jonas Moe Quote NAREE 50 th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference 32 CoreLogic MarketPulse http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse-report.aspx# 34 CoreLogic LTV by Generation http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/archana-pradhan/2016/06/comparing-mortgage-credit-variables-by-applicant -age.aspx 40-42,52, 54-55 Existing Home Sales Report http://www.realtor.org/ 43-45 Freddie Mac Home Sales http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20160623_ahead_in_may.html 46-48,67-68 New Home Sales, Inventory http://www.census.gov/constructi on/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf 49-51 Pending Home Sales Report http://www.realtor.org/ 56-57 Case Shiller Price Index https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/367344_cshomeprice-release-0628.pdf 58 Forecasted Price Changes http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price -insights.aspx# 62-66 Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.org 71-73 Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org 77 Freddie Mac Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 79-80 Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index 35, 81-85 Ellie Mae Report http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insi ght-reports/ellie_mae_oir _MAY2016.pdf 89-90 Ipsos Study Graphics https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/pr ess/2016/homeownershipsurvey06142016.pdf 93 NAHB Graphic http://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/impact-of-home-building-and-remodeling-on-the-u-s--economy.aspx KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM