TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018 Information embargoed until Friday 18th January 2019 at 00:01 1 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Welcome to the latest edition of the TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report, providing a comprehensive review of the UK property market, created from the most robust property change sources available. It provides a real-time review of the UK market, covering 99.6% of all property moves (both sales and rentals). This state of the nation report provides unique insight into the people behind the numbers, creating a picture of the demographic, regional and socio-economic factors impacting the housing market, including: Factual data (not modelled or sentiment-based) Full market coverage Demographic overlay Property sales data Property rental data Real-time data The TwentyCi National Property & Homemover Report is published quarterly. 2 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Contents Executive summary 4 2019 housing market predictions 5 UK national trends 6 UK regional trends 7 Average asking price 8 Sale vs. rent and average asking price top 10 cities UK-wide 9 Sale vs. rent and average asking price London 10 High street vs. online agents 11 Affordability 12 Fallen-throughs 13 Price achieved 13 Percentage for sale 14 Price bands, income bands, lifestage and property type 15 Homemover segments 17 Unusual property features Did you know? 18 3 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Executive summary for 2018 Subdued property market The UK property market has remained lacklustre in 2018. With economic headwinds anticipated through the Brexit process and a lack of consumer confidence, the property market looks set to stay subdued into 2019. New instructions, while up 4% year on year, are not translating to an equal uplift in exchanges. Online estate agents The market share of online estate agents at the end of 2018 stabilised at 7.2% of all exchanges (down from a high of 7.6% in Q2). However additional analysis shows that online agents are struggling to penetrate south of the Watford Gap and for properties valued at over 200k. Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCi s Chief Customer Officer, notes that, The low volume of properties coming to market has the potential to thwart demand. Q1 2019 and the outcome of the Brexit process will determine the outturn for the next 12 months. An orderly Brexit and improved consumer confidence, combined with a release of pent-up demand may fuel a property market upturn. The opposite, as the Bank of England has warned, could cause a temporary but significant hiatus in the market. While many indicators show that property prices are remaining stable and not falling, this is undoubtedly a direct result of a lack of supply. Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCi s Chief Customer Officer, notes that, The unexpected demise of emoov and recent Purplebricks results suggest that online agents are struggling to win customers and build brand awareness, especially in the south. As in the dotcom boom of the early 21st century, high customer acquisition costs are a significant flaw in the current model. Paradoxically however, online agents are doing better in the north where properties are generally cheaper compared to the south. Based on their fixed-fee structures, one might have reasonably expected this to have been the other way around. Fallen-throughs With one in five house sales falling through in England and Wales, the need for a seismic change in the buying and selling process is essential to deliver certainty to the property market. Collaboration between the government and the property sector, including the much-discussed Reservation Agreements, needs to gain traction ahead of an uplift in the market. Affordability crisis in the capital With consumer confidence low and the Brexit process casting an economic shadow, the performance of the London property market continues to decline. Notwithstanding Brexit, affordability in the capital will continue to act as a brake to revitalisation in the shortto mid-term, with the ripples being felt across the whole of the UK economy. All data is based on 2018 versus 2017 unless otherwise stated. Analysis of property buyers is based on demographic overlay data versus individual property-based data triggers. 4 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
2019 housing market predictions Up, down or much the same? In spite of the gloomy post-brexit predictions for the UK economy and house prices, the property market has shown resilience since the 2016 referendum. With the deadline now fast-approaching, here are some predictions for the year ahead from a selection of industry experts. National Association of Estate Agents We usually see demand spike in the first few months of the year, but the landscape will probably be very different in 2019 as buyers sit on the fence and adopt a wait and see strategy until the Brexit deal is complete. Nationwide If the uncertainty lifts in the months ahead and employment continues to rise, there is scope for activity to pick up through 2019. Zoopla Regional markets are predicted to continue to fend off economic uncertainty and boast the most growth in the UK housing sector. London and south-east England are expected to bear the brunt of Brexit in 2019. Hometrack Brexit is the greatest driver of uncertainty in the near term and the prospects are for a slow start for the housing market in 2019. Halifax The UK could see house price growth as high as 4% by the end of 2019 despite current political upheaval. Rightmove House-sellers asking prices will be unchanged at 0% across 2019. Underlying the flat growth across the UK generally, Rightmove expects to see asking prices falling by around 2% around London s commuter belt and decreasing by around 1% in Greater London itself, while heading further north, where affordability is less stretched, asking prices could increase by around 2% to 4%. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors House prices will stagnate in 2019 and the number of sales will fall as a mixture of Brexit and affordability constraints take their toll on the property market. Howard Archer, Chief Economic adviser to the EY Item Club The fundamentals for house buyers currently remain challenging. Consumers have faced an extended serious squeeze on purchasing power, which is only gradually easing. Additionally, housing market activity remains hampered by relatively fragile consumer confidence and limited willingness to engage in major transactions. However, a no-deal Brexit is unlikely to bring about a slump while the number of homes for sale remains relatively low. 5 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
UK National Trends 2018 has seen 4% more properties come to market than in 2017, however the number of properties exchanging has declined by 1.2%. While the conversion of listed to sold subject to contract has declined by 4%, there remains a significant volume of transactions within the property market. This is still much lower than the number of transactions seen during the market s most buoyant years though. Collectively, fall throughs and withdrawals have increased by 0.8% between 2017 and 2018 a surprisingly low figure given the perceived lack of consumer confidence fuelled by Brexit uncertainty. The average property price for exchanges has also risen by 2.1% year on year from 296k to 302k. 2017 2018 4.4% 2017 2018 2017 2018-4.4% -6.1% 2017 2018-1.2% 1671K 1745K 1096K 1048K 2017 232K 2018 218K 782K 2.8% 805K 984K 972K New Instructions SSTC Fallen Through Withdrawn Exchanged 6 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
UK Regional Trends Average asking price by region UK regions Difference Average in last year asking price (average Q4 2018 asking price) East Midlands 215,592 3% s East of England 303,948 6% s London (M25) 578,080 0% n North East 161,040 4% s North West 195,610 3% s Scotland 169,401-1% t South East 382,312 3% s South West 298,605 4% s Wales 192,000 1% s West Midlands 227,872 5% s Yorkshire and the Humber 188,079 3% s Year on year, all regions in England have seen an increase in average property price, while prices in Scotland have dropped by just 1%. s = up n = no movement t= down 7 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Average asking price in the top 10 cities and regions UK-wide + London Year on year, the average asking price has increased in all the major UK cities with the exception of Glasgow and Newcastle upon Tyne. Cardiff and Bristol are showing the strongest growth as the south west s economic importance gathers pace. Q4 data is typically anomalous, however Q1 2019 will be a bell weather to the property market. Glasgow 155,301-1.9% Edinburgh Newcastle 231,692 upon Tyne 0.8% 171,262-1% Sheffield 175,913 1.1% UK Cities Average asking price Q4 2018 Difference in last year Difference in last quarter Birmingham 244,916.28 2.0% -3.6% Sheffield 175,913.45 1.1% -4.2% Glasgow 155,301.40-1.9% -6.0% Newcastle upon Tyne 171,261.74-1.0% -2.1% Manchester 205,329.68 1.5% -0.7% Nottingham 199,875.44 0.2% -3.6% Cardiff 200,995.25 5.1% -0.1% Edinburgh 231,691.85 0.8% -1.5% Leicester 241,373.30 0.8% -5.0% Bristol 322,083.30 4.5% 1.0% Cardiff 200,995 5.1% Manchester 205,329 1.5% Nottingham 199,875 0.2% Leicester 241,373 Birmingham 244,916 0.8% 2% Bristol 322,083 4.5% Year-on-year figures 8 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Sales vs rent top 10 cities UK-wide National Sales vs Rent Q4 2018 SALES 60% 57% 76% 50% 50% 58% 60% 77% 60% 63% Birmingham Sheffield Glasgow Newcastle Manchester Nottingham Cardiff Edinburgh Leicester Bristol 2018 has seen a steady increase in the percentage of rental properties available and as we enter 2019, this category makes up approximately 40% of the country s available housing stock. 50% 50% 40% 43% 42% 40% 40% 37% RENTS 24% 23% 9 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
London Trends West 1,182,223-2% North West 947,691-10% West Central 907,081-15% South West 1,019,313-1% North 683,626-4% East 492,585-4% East Central 806,579-13% South East 513,764-4% Year on year, all London areas have seen a fall in the average asking price with the central areas incurring the largest decrease. There are several factors at play here, including the Brexit process impacting WC postcodes and a significant increase in affordable flats in EC and NW London as the residential axis of the capital shifts. Sales vs Rent London RENTS SALES London Sales vs Rent Q4 2018 44% 32% 46% 40% 51% 44% 39% 28% London E London EC London N London NW London SE London SW London W London WC In Q4, nearly 60% of all London listings were for rental properties, compared with just 40% in all other major UK cities. This is an ongoing trend in the capital, with affordability inhibiting the purchase market. The increase in the number of flats being built in EC and NW postcodes has led some property analysts to speculate that supply is outstripping demand both in the purchase and rental sectors. 56% 68% 54% 60% 49% 56% 61% 72% 10 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Online agents market share by region Year-on-year comparison Scotland 49.82% North East 38.37% Northern Ireland 34.09% North West 8.66% Yorkshire and The Humber 8.49% East Midlands 5.58% East of England -0.67% West Midlands -1.49% Wales -2.40% South West -9.05% Inner London -10.07% Outer London -16.26% South East -19.27% Year on year, online estate agents have seen the greatest levels of growth in the North East, North West, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Penetration south of the Watford Gap remains a challenge. Online agents market share by price band Year-on-year comparison Less than 200,000 4.06% 200,000-350,000-4.33% 350,000-1,000,000-3.33% 1,000,000+ -0.60% Year on year, growth is greatest for properties valued under 200k which would correlate with the growth we have seen in the northern regions of the UK and the lack of penetration across the south, where property prices generally exceed 200k. High street agents vs. online 300000 NUMBER OF EXCHANGES 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 Market penetration 92.8% Market penetration 7.2% 267,535 20,775 The market share of online agents remained consistent at 7.2% of exchanges, in line with Q3 but down from the high of 7.6% earlier in 2018. 0 High Street Agents Online 11 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Affordability crisis in the capital Looking at cities across the UK, there s still a clear north-south divide when it comes to affordability, despite salaries being higher in the south. And it s not only buying a home that s out of reach for many. Even renters on low incomes are struggling to pay in London. Key London stats To buy a property in the top 25% by price, the top 25% of earners would have to pay 40-60% of their take-home pay on a mortgage, even after putting down a 40% deposit. As the map shows, central and western areas of the capital are the least affordable postcodes for buyers. N Least affordable NW E Most affordable W WC EC SE SW While the highest earners can choose to buy a property of lower value, the 25% of lowest earners in London aren t even able to buy a property in the lowest 25% price bracket. To do so would mean spending between 70% and 131% of their take-home pay on a mortgage. For low earners, the cheapest rentals are often out of reach as well, with rent on a property of their equivalent standing costing 57% to 90% of their take-home pay. In the Midlands and the north of England it s a brighter picture, with the 25% of lowest earners able to either rent or buy property. In Nottingham for instance, renting a property in the bottom 25% by price would cost 35% of take-home pay on rent or 37% on a mortgage. 12 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Fallen-throughs In England and Wales over one in five property sales fall through, while in Scotland and Northern Ireland the figure is closer to one in ten. With a variation in the legal process operating in Scotland for property purchases and conveyancing, transactions are far less likely to fall through. For the rest of the UK to benefit from greater certainty in property buying and selling, the government and the sector need to come together and formalise a more robust process, including the much-discussed implementation of Reservation Agreements. Fallen-throughs SSTCs % FT / SSTC Wales 13,512 59,033 22.9% England (including islands) 239,594 1,099,166 21.8% Scotland 9,327 89,410 10.4% Northern Ireland 2,641 27,446 9.6% Total 265,074 1,275,055 20.8% All counts based on a years worth of data from 14/12/2017 to 13/12/2018 inclusive. Price achieved The table outlines the price achieved compared to the original price at which a property was marketed. For 2018, the top five is dominated by London and the South East, reflecting the challenging market conditions in these areas. The Midlands continues to demonstrate a robust market with the lowest level of discount and sellers realising a value much closer to the asking price. Region 2017 Price achieved 2018 Price achieved Inner London -3.76% -3.73% North East -3.97% -3.55% Outer London -2.78% -3.14% Wales -3.85% -3.08% South East -2.49% -2.81% North West -3.05% -2.58% East of England -1.88% -2.51% South West -2.46% -2.37% Yorkshire and The Humber -2.80% -2.21% East Midlands -2.40% -2.15% West Midlands -2.04% -1.57% 13 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Availability of properties to buy This table outlines the number of properties available to buy as a percentage of the overall housing stock in a region. With an average of 2%, the statistics underline the distinct lack of properties on the supply side, with a lacklustre market, a lack of new housing stock and general consumer wariness stagnating the sector. Region Sale% South East 2.42% Outer London 2.30% South West 2.28% East of England 2.25% Northern Ireland 2.23% North East 2.14% Inner London 2.00% North West 1.96% Wales 1.91% East Midlands 1.88% West Midlands 1.63% Isle of Man 1.58% Yorkshire and The Humber 1.57% Scotland 1.20% Channel Islands 0.81% 14 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Price Bands, Income Bands and Property Type Household Income Band Year on year, a wealth gap has become apparent. For households earning over 50k per annum the number of property exchanges has increased, while those with a lower income have seen a significant decrease in exchanges. This suggests that the squeeze on disposable income and a lack of affordable housing are continuing to impede people s ability to both join and move up the property ladder. Number of Exchanged Properties by Income Band Q4 2018 50000 NUMBER OF EXCHANGES 40000 30000 20000 10000-4% 23K -14% 13K -7% 38K -6% 41K -4% 43K 3% 30K % Difference vs Q4 2017 3% 27K 3% 19K -4% 12K 8% 0 5K 150K + 100K -149,999 70K - 99,999 60K - 69,999 50K - 59,999 40K - 49,999 30K -39,999 20K - 29,999 15K - 19,999 < 15K Property Price Band Year on year, fewer homes sold for under 200k. This reflects both general house price inflation and highlights the lack of affordable homes. Number of Exchanged Properties by Price Band Q4 2018 50000 % Difference vs Q4 2017 NUMBER OF EXCHANGES 40000 30000 20000 10000-24% 12K -26% 23K -17% -6% 40K 38K 2% 31K 8% 27K 14% 35K 19% 17% 19K 17K 0 14% 15% 4% -33% 6K 3K 588 33 5m + 2m - 5m 1m - 2m 750K - 1m 500K - 750 400K - 500 300K - 400 250K - 300 200K - 250 150K - 200 100K - 150 50K - 100 < 50K 15 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Property Types Year on year, semi-detached and terraced houses have seen the greatest levels of growth. The uplift in detached properties seen in Q3 has not been sustained, possibly due in part to the continued lack of available homes in this category. The key dependency now is for the number of new instructions to increase across all property types to feed the property market. NUMBER OF EXCHANGES Number of Exchanged Properties by Property Type Q4 2018 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000-15% 36K % Difference vs Q4 2017-6% 4K -5% 26K 2% 67K Q4 2018-6% 49K 2% 70K 3K Flat Cottage Bungalow Semi Detached Detached Terraced Lifestage Q4 2018 has seen the number of exchanges in the 66+ demographic continue to dwindle, while 18 to 35-year-old buyers are on the increase, both year on year and quarter on quarter. NUMBER OF EXCHANGES Number of Exchanged Properties by Lifestage Q4 2018 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 % Difference vs Q4 2017 2% 38K -7% 52K -2% 106K -6% 56K 0 18-35 36-45 46-65 66+ 4K 16 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Homemover segments TwentyCi s data tracks homemovers as they make their way through the property buying or renting process. Known as the homemover wave, this journey can last several months and is broken down into five specific stages triggered by activity such as online property searches, surveys and EPC reports. Homemover Cycle Segments Q4 2018 282,138 Number of households Difference in last year +11% 259,845 Difference in last year +4% 275,742 Difference in last year +1% 265,221 Difference in last year +1% 268,298 Difference in last year -2% Move Maker First listing your house as For Sale Move Planner Making an offer on your new home Mover Approaching the time of move Nest Builder Just moved Home Maker Recently moved Year on year we have seen an increase in the number of properties coming on to the market, and a reduction in properties completing into the home maker segment. The double-digit percentage increase in move makers offers positive encouragement, as more households enter the home moving journey and fuel the available stock. 17 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
Unusual property features Did you know? Our comprehensive property data gives us a fascinating insight into the unusual features of homes across the UK. If your mantra this month is new year, new me, you might be tempted by these wholesome homes that are on the market now. Grow your own Want to get your five a day, every day? 53 properties boast an organic garden. Stay in lane Skip the January gym rush in one of the 30 homes with a private swimming pool. Time for some mindfulness Slow the pace and still your thoughts with a dedicated meditation room, available in 8 properties. About TwentyCi TwentyCi is a life event data company that provides intelligence into the events in consumer lives that act as purchase triggers, such as moving home, having a baby, buying a car or retiring. TwentyCi has been managing data for major advertisers like HJ Heinz, ATS Euromaster and many leading estate agents for over 15 years. TwentyCi holds the UK s biggest and richest resource of factual life event data, including the largest, most comprehensive source of homemover data compiled from more than 29 billion qualified data points. It works with advertisers and their agencies to create contextually targeted marketing programmes that cut through by reaching consumers at the exact moment that they need a company s product or service, through the best media channel for that individual. For more information, visit twentyci.co.uk. 18 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018
To find out more call 01908 829 300 or email enquiries@twentyci.co.uk TwentyCi 19 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 2018